UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Jandiroba (7/20/24)
Note: Please read the full analysis, that is much more important than who I pick to win. The confidence relates to my pick to win, not the path to victory. Picks are NOT bets. Matchup breakdowns are written by Brett unless otherwise noted, and all DraftKings analysis is written by Brett. Both Technical Tim and Luke Lampe will also contribute to matchup breakdowns.
MAIN CARD
Amanda Lemos vs. Virna Jandiroba
Fight Odds: Jandiroba -131, Lemos +114
Odds to Finish: -180
DraftKings Salaries: Jandiroba 8.5k, Lemos 7.7k
Weight Class: 125
It’s not a high-profile main event, but I’m pretty excited to see Amanda Lemos and Virna Jandiroba square off on Saturday.
Lemos usually fights aggressively, and has shown some of the best power we’ve seen in this flyweight division. It’s led her to six knockdowns and several impressive finishes, and even a shot at the title against Zhang Weili in 2023.
Jandiroba is one of the best submission grapplers in the division, and it’s very likely that she’ll attack Lemos on the mat. It sets up well for a fun contest that could end dominantly on either side.
I very often prefer the grapplers though, especially when there are defensive question marks on the opposing side.
Lemos can grapple, but she’s struggled against the top of the division, and her lack of defensive wrestling and scrambling shows up in some of her losses. Zhang Weili really put it on her in that title fight, landing six takedowns with ease on seven attempts, and controlling the fight for more than 16 minutes.
Lemos hasn’t faced a ton of real wrestling threats otherwise. She escaped some bad spots against Mackenzie Dern, but Dern is a very weak wrestler and still did take her down, and Lemos is currently defending at a poor 57 percent overall.
Granted, Zhang is the champion of the division, but Jandiroba is a better pure submission grappler. That’s her speciality and the only real quality aspect of her game that separates her from her competition.
Jandiroba can wrestle too. She lands 2.36 takedowns per 15 minutes and attempts about 6.5 in that time span.
She is very good at passing the guard, she is a very strong submission grappler, and she can also threaten and reverse position from the bottom.
Jandiroba is limited as an athlete though. She’s not a powerhouse and that probably prevents her from reaching an absolute wrestling or submission ceiling. She has struggled to finish most of her competition within the UFC.
On the feet, Jandiroba is a defender more than anything else. It’s not the place she’ll win. It’s the place where she can limit engagements and hope to turn the momentum on the mat.
She currently lands 2.30 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 2.96 per minute. It’s a super low volume and her career high is only 63 sig. strikes. She dropped Amanda Ribas but that says more about Ribas’ chin than it does Jandiroba’s power, cuz she really doesn’t have much.
She is competent defensively though, and has never been knocked down. If she only strikes with Lemos though, it could be a beating.
Lemos is way faster, way more powerful, more diverse and higher volume. Lemos may chew her up and a knockout wouldn’t shock me.
Jandiroba likely won’t stand and trade for long though, and eventually, Lemos will have to worry about that takedown threat as well, which could slow her pace, as is usual when Jandiroba fights.
So from a macro perspective, we have a somewhat binary matchup with one strong distance striker and one strong grappler.
Lemos has looked pretty awful in recent takedown defense, so I’m super skeptical she can keep the fight upright. I’d have to project Jandiroba for a few takedowns landed over 25 minutes, if not more.
With those takedowns, it’s very likely Jandiroba can control Lemos and put her in bad positions. She’ll probably take the back. From there, Jandiroba could easily get the submission.
Lemos has been subbed with a standing arm-triangle in recent years too, which is pretty embarrassing. She might have decent enough last-stand defense to survive, but my guess is Jandiroba will definitely put her in bad spots early.
Can Jandiroba fight for a hard five rounds if she can’t get the finish? I’m not certain. The longer Lemos can survive, the more chances she’ll have to land bigger strikes, and hope Jandiroba slows down.
Lemos didn’t look great toward the end of her championship fight though, so it’s probably just as likely that Lemos gets tired trying to defend grappling exchanges and can’t push an aggressive pace late. Simply surviving does give her outs though.
I’m never going to be extremely confident in a matchup where there are two somewhat obvious paths to victory, but I’m also very often going to side with the stronger grapplers in these situations, which is Jandiroba.
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On DraftKings, Jandiroba is priced at 8.5k and I think she’s a very strong target.
A submission win would very likely exceed value and have her contend for the optimal, but a decision probably gets there too, and it ultimately may be the preferred outcome (other than a total beatdown). Jandiroba has scored 80, 95 and 79 in her last three decision wins, which isn’t phenomenal, but that means she’s averaged 18.22 points per round which would extrapolate into a 120+ score over five rounds.
She doesn’t need to score 120 at 8.5k to be optimal, but the point is that even in an extended fight, given her skill set, she’s likely to score quite well, probably surpass 100 and contend for the optimal.
The downside is that she’s only -131 to win. Taking an 80 percent stand is a major risk because she’s far from 80 percent to actually win the fight, and losing seems like a very realistic scenario.
I’m still probably gonna do it. Maybe not to that extent, but I’ll lean Jandiroba somewhat moderately and my guess is that the industry could do the same with so many value dogs on this slate. Grappling just scores very well. Jandiroba is +170 to win ITD for what it’s worth.
Either way, with the main event, matchup and grappling style, I really like Jandiroba and I’ll have a lot of exposure to her.
Lemos at 7.7k is completely fine too, especially if it feels like Jandiroba could be the chalk. Lemos can win, and if she wins, there’s a decent chance it comes with damage.
She is also +170 to win ITD, and typically, her wins are dominant and somewhat early. She has a super high KD rate in her wins too. Regardless of my opinion on the matchup, having secondary exposure to Lemos makes sense.
My primary concern though, does date back to the matchup. There’s a pretty decent chance Jandiroba can have early grappling success, which could really limit the amount of offense Lemos puts up. Even standing, Jandiroba won’t just brawl.
It’s quite possible that we get through the first three rounds of this fight with Lemos landing 25 strikes. Is a fourth round KO worth it then? Probably not.
So it’s not just that Lemos *can* win dominantly, it’s more likely that she needs to win dominantly. Because if Jandiroba is having any success at all it’s going to basically zero out the offense of Lemos.
It’s fine if you want to play into this side or into the leverage, but ultimately I come off thinking Lemos is more of a secondary target, while Jandiroba can be used as a primary one.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Jandiroba by RNC, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Brad Tavares vs. JunYong Park
Fight Odds: Park -155, Tavares +134
Odds to Finish: +155
DraftKings Salaries: Park 9k, Tavares 7.2k
Weight Class: 185
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
Coming off his first loss in five fights, I am sure JunYong Park is eager to get back into the cage this weekend against Brad Tavares. To be fair to him, I thought he won that fight against Andre Muniz and it was a bad decision by the judges as Park did way more damage.
JunYong Park has generally put together a solid UFC run. He is 7-3 with two of his losses coming to Gregory Rodrigues and Anthony Hernandez. He actually nearly finished both of those guys too. His other loss was to Muniz which as I mentioned above, I thought he won. So Park has had a good chance to win every fight he has been in thus far.
I actually don’t mind Park as he is an aggregate producer of offense. He will land strikes and look to land takedowns at a decently high rate. He is actually willing to do things which is good.
I consider Park best as a boxer. He lands 4.53 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.30 in return. He defends strikes at 53 percent. Park has some tight boxing with his straight punching and a nice jab. He also has a good low kick that he mixes in. I think he also has fast hands. He likes to come forward and push the pace on the feet.
Park is also a decent offensive wrestler. He lands 1.83 takedowns per 15 minutes and attempts about four takedowns per fight. I consider him a competent wrestler who can outgrapple below-average competition. He actually won his last three victories by RNC.
Park defends takedowns at 57 percent. I don’t think he has the best TDD and decent grapplers can definitely have success against him and take him down as Muniz just showed. However, Park is still competent.
He actually defended 21 of 24 takedowns attempted by Eryk Anders. He also gave Hernandez fits with his get ups. I like that Park at least tries to work up, and I think his get ups are decent which is good. He likes to give up his back and work up immediately. He is also aware of hooks coming in on the way up and generally doesn’t allow them to be placed in.
Park will be taking on UFC veteran Brad Tavares. Tavares is mostly a striker. I don’t like his volume as he only lands 3.38 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.15 in return. However, he is somewhat skillful and does have a decent amount of power. He is capable of beating below-average strikers in general. He has some nice low kicks, but I do think he is a bit vulnerable to inside boxing exchanges.
Tavares doesn’t really offensively wrestle. He only lands 0.78 takedowns per 15 minutes. He has never even won by submission in his UFC career which spans 24 fights.
Tavares generally has good takedown defense though and defends takedowns at 81 percent. So he generally can sprawl and brawl, and beat grappling dependent fighters like Omari Akhmedov, ACJ, and Chris Weidman which were his last three wins.
As far as this matchup goes, I do lean Park a bit. Park has a four-year youth advantage here. I also just like his overall pace on the feet more. I think he is just the busier fighter with better boxing. I do think he will have success on the inside with his jab. I generally think he is a more durable fighter than Tavares as well.
I also think Park is more likely to land takedowns here because of willingness. Although Tavares is a tough cat to grapple though, so I do think Tavares can neutralize most of the grappling of Park.
Tavares is still a very experienced striker though. He has fought everyone in this division and could have success on the outside with his low kicks and keep the fight competitive. He still just doesn’t land enough offense for me to pick him though. So I am going to go with Park as the more consistent offensive striker and fighter in general.
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On DraftKings, it’s an interesting situation with Tavares only lined at +140 to win, but he’s priced down to 7.2k which feels like a major value.
However, Tavares really doesn’t have a strong history of fantasy success, and I think there’s a decent chance he gets largely ignored despite the value.
In fact, and this is pretty crazy, the last time Tavares scored 100 points was in 2012.. Since then, he’s won 11 times in the UFC and has only topped 80 points ONE TIME. That is insane.
It’s simply because he is not producing a lot of offense. Very minimal wrestling upside. We can’t expect much more than 80 strikes over 15 minutes. He has some power but he rarely records knockdowns and very rarely early in the fight.
Now he’s +500 to win ITD coming off another KO loss, and it feels like his career is probably coming to an end sooner rather than later. Fortunately, he can continue to keep himself alive with strong defense, but producing lots of offense is a more difficult challenge.
In Park’s three UFC losses, he gave up a ton of takedowns to Hernandez and Muniz and was KOd by Rodriguez, so he does give up big scores in losses. It’s still very tough to project Tavares for any real offensive success here.
Despite the value, I don’t see Tavares as a great fantasy target. You’re hoping he can win and score 70 points, and that essentially no other dog on the slate will win. That, or hoping Tavares gets a random early KO.
Anything can happen but I much prefer chasing ceiling scores and I don’t plan on investing much in Tavares this weekend.
Park is priced way up to 9k which feels very expensive for a -160 favorite.
It’s also a tough matchup for him because Tavares defends takedowns really well historically and doesn’t absorb many strikes per minute.
The only real upside case, which has some merit to it, is that Tavares is aging and his durability is wearing down. He’s been KOd in three of his past four losses.
Park isn’t necessarily a knockout artist and that’s baked into his poor +230 ITD line, but it’s still a semi-realistic outcome. Just priced at 9k though, it would likely have to come early.
There’s a pretty decent chance that Park is low owned this week due to the overpricing, and mediocre finishing metrics, and for that reason he can be considered. But he’s largely boom or bust in this matchup and I will likely be prioritizing other options in this range.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Park by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Steve Garcia vs. SeungWoo Choi
Fight Odds: Garcia -144, Choi +125
Odds to Finish: -500
DraftKings Salaries: Garcia 8.6k, Choi 7.6k
Weight Class: 145
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a firefight here as Steve Garcia and Seung Woo Choi will bang it out this weekend.
Garcia thrives as a striker and more specifically, a boxer. He is super aggressive and will walk his opponents down and throw aggressive boxing combinations. I like that he works the body often as well, as I believe body shots are underutilized in the UFC. I like his volume.
He tries to drown fighters, use his cardio as a weapon, and he also has power. I really liked the way he swarmed Melquizael Costa in his most recent win.
Garcia is moreso a brawler but he does have a decent jab and has some okay pure boxing skills. He kind of throws his jab, comes into close range and starts throwing hooks and uppercuts. Garcia also has power and has 12 knockouts in 15 professional wins.
Garcia is aggressive so he is liable to get hit though. Although he has only been knocked out once in 20 professional fights, he has been hurt a lot. Ontiveros literally hurt him in both rounds until Garcia started to grapple. He was also knocked out by Maheshate and was knocked down against Nuerdanbieke. He is a tough guy, but I just feel like getting hurt that often is not a good thing. It shows defensive holes.
Garcia has okay first layer takedown defense and will work to his feet if taken down. He showed some okay offensive wrestling against Ontiveros where he landed three takedowns. I generally think he will be dependent on winning fights with his hands though. I really like his aggression overall.
Garcia will be taking on SeungWoo Choi. Standing at 6’0” with a 74” reach, Choi is a physical presence in the cage. He uses his length to aid his striking game. Choi lands 3.48 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.02 in return. He defends strikes at a poor 47 percent and that’s one clear issue to monitor.
I kind of don’t know what to think of Choi on the feet. He has had some really good performances in the cage. I thought he looked quite good against Youssef Zalal and he showed some flashes of big power as well.
However, he has looked poor lately and has been knocked down FIVE times in his last three fights. I thought he looked underwhelming against Josh Culibao and Michael Trizano. I just never know what to expect from him.
Choi doesn’t grapple often, only landing 0.87 takedown per 15 minutes. He defends takedowns at a decent 69 percent. I think he will get outgrappled by the top grapplers of the division but his defensive grappling is probably good enough to nullify the grappling of a lot of the division. He has been more prone to back takes than anything else, as both Caceres and Tucker RNC’d him.
Choi is just a decent action fighter IMO. He has some power, is physical, and is capable of obtaining top position on guys. However, he has had low volume in some matchups and has been hurt and outgrappled in matchups. So there are plenty of ways for him to lose.
As far as this matchup goes, I think Garcia is going to turn this into a gun fight which will probably result in someone getting knocked out. Both guys are good enough defensively as grapplers to where the winner of the striking will probably win this fight.
I honestly lean Garcia a bit just because I do think he has shown a bit better durability. However, both guys have been hurt enough to where variance is all over this matchup in general.
Still though, I do like Garcia’s aggression, pure power and inside boxing more. I simply think he is going to go after Choi and is a little more likely to drown Choi with pace and power. Choi may hurt him in the process with a big shot.
However, I think Garcia is more likely to hurt Choi via process with pace and by overwhelming Choi. So I am going to go with Garcia here to eventually hurt Choi on the inside. This is a really fun fight though, and I expect it to be fireworks. I don’t think Garcia will allow this to be boring.
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On DraftKings, this fight could be one key piece to the slate as the matchup is -500 to end inside the distance.
Neither fighter is particularly trustworthy, but I’ve been somewhat shocked by how bad Choi has looked recently in terms of his durability. He’s been getting dropped left, right and center, and not even by great competition.
I now have serious, major concerns with his durability and I think he’s a liability to be hurt in general. Against someone like Garcia who will throw bombs, it seems obvious that Garcia could find a KO.
Conversely, Garcia was dropped twice by Ontiveros, who is really bad, twice more by Maheshate and once by Nuerdanbieke. This just isn’t a great level of competition to get hurt by.
So in theory, Garcia has similar issues as Choi. He can be hurt, he doesn’t defend strikes well, and the combination of these things makes it seem pretty likely someone is getting dropped in this matchup on Saturday.
I don’t have a super strong opinion, but Garcia is favored and priced at 8.6k. He’ll be boom or bust, but his chances of a KO seem decent at -110 to win ITD, and he’s a fighter I want exposure to.
Choi is priced down to 7.6k and carries a strong +165 ITD line.
At this point, I think Garcia will be the primary target and more owned fighter publicly. He’s won four of his last five fights and has not scored less than 94 points.
Again, he’s boom or bust so there’s always risk of an extended fight, but he rates out well and I’d like moderate exposure to him for the early KO upside. He may be somewhat chalky though.
Choi has lost three of his past four and hasn’t scored incredibly well, so he may not be as popular at 7.6k. Especially priced near Holobaugh and Lemos who could also get lots of attention, it’s possible that Choi is overlooked.
He shouldn’t be unowned, but Choi will rate out even better if he’s providing leverage against Garcia lineups. I think he’s a strong upside target with real KO equity, but he’ll also be boom or bust as well.
In theory, there’s so much variance in fights like this that it’s fair to consider it somewhat even, and if Choi is far less owned than Garcia, he’d be a great tournament target. I still consider him a strong secondary option with upside and ultimately, this feels like a strong matchup to have exposure to as it’s -200 to end in less than 1.5 rounds.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Garcia by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Low)
Kurt Holobaugh vs. Kaynan Kruschewsky
Fight Odds: Kruschewsky -135, Holobaugh +117
Odds to Finish: -180
DraftKings Salaries: Kruschewsky 8.7k, Holobaugh 7.5k
Weight Class: 155
We should get a banger here between Kurt Holobaugh and Kaynan Kruschewsky.
Kruschewsky is 15-2 professionally with four wins by knockout and nine by submission, and he rates out as a low-end prospect for me. He actually debuted on short notice against Elves Brenner in November, and was brutally KOd late in the first round.
I consider Kruschewsky to be mostly a muay-thai striker, who is fairly aggressive and throws in moderate volume. He’s not necessarily an elite athlete, but he’s semi-dangerous given the pace he can push.
We saw Kruschewsky land a takedown and jump on a RNC on DWCS in the first round, but I don’t rate him highly as a wrestler. Many of his submission wins are guillotine chokes, which he will jump on instead of defending takedowns sometimes.
He is a black belt in jiu-jitsu so I suppose his ground game is competent, but I still don’t think he has a great chance to consistently take down and dominate good competition. I do actually like his ground-and-pound when he gets on top, but I’m just not sure he has a consistent path there.
He may also be a liability with his takedown defense, though I’ve seen him defend competently at times.
Kruschewsky has actually won multiple fights recently past round three, which suggests strong enough cardio to compete at the UFC level. Despite the ugly debut, I am somewhat hopeful that Kruschewsky will be able to fight okay for a full 15 minutes.
I’m still unsure if he’ll get there against Kurt Holobaugh, who’s been one of my favorites to watch in recent years.
Holobaugh is now on his third stint in the promotion after briefly fighting in the UFC and Strikeforce in 2013. He eventually returned to the UFC in 2018 after winning a contract on the first episode of DWCS.
He then went 0-3, and I picked him to win every time. To be fair, he fought a really tough string of competition against Raoni Barcelos, Shane Burgos and Thiago Moises.
The fight against Barcelos was in Barcelos’ UFC debut, and Barcelos looked like an absolute god. Holobaugh still went to war with him, and outlanded him 102 to 82 until he was knocked out in round three.
He then was a huge dog to Shane Burgos and dropped him immediately, jumped on top and got armbarred.. smh. Then he fought Moises and got outgrappled. Fair enough.
Since then, he knocked out a couple dudes on the regional scene and then went on to beat multiple opponents on TUF.
Holobaugh fights at an extremely high pace and he’s willing to take damage to give some back. He has defensive issues because of it, but he’s very aggressive, volume oriented, and willing to throw down. He’ll fight for your money.
His wrestling is not great, but it’s acceptable at the lower levels. He’s also a black belt in jiu-jitsu and has an understanding of the ground game. He’ll get beaten by good wrestlers and good technicians, but he can thrive in brawls.
Most recently, he earned the TUF crown with a second-round victory against Austin Hubbard, though he was taken down a couple times early and controlled. And then he fought Trey Ogden, who just dominated him on the mat for the entire fight.
It really put a question mark in mind for Holobaugh moving forward. I’ve always loved the guy and I love the potential style he can bring. Even to start rounds 1, 2 and 3 against Ogden, Holobaugh was pressuring and throwing bombs.
But he was taken down so easily and he just could not get back up at all. He barely tried at all. It was disturbing to watch him lay on his back for 11 minutes and I really question what he has left.
There’s no real answer to that question, but it’s the major caveat that comes with Holobaugh at this stage. His defensive wrestling looks very poor as of late, and it’s possible one single takedown could be the end of the round.
If he gets into a brawl with Kruschewsky though… that’s a fight Holobaugh can win.
Kruschewsky’s only two losses are devastating first-round KOs. Outside of the debut, he was butchered in a few minutes in 2019 and face-planted there as well. It seems very realistic to question the durability of Kruschewsky, or at least be fearful of what happens when he eats big shots.
I see that as a very clear path to victory for Holobaugh. Pressure, chaos, big shots landed and an early or mid-round KO. In theory, he could do enough per round on the feet to make them competitive and take a decision too, though I feel somewhat confident it would come with damage.
Holobaugh can also wrestle offensively. I know his defensive wrestling sucks but perhaps there’s an additional path there? Especially if he starts to wear on Kruschewsky throughout the fight. It’s hard to project but he also just beat Hubbard by RNC, so it’s not impossible.
Likewise, Kruschewsky won his DWCS fight by landing a takedown, defending a guillotine choke, advancing to the back and locking in the RNC. Given what we just saw defensively with Holobaugh, it seems very plausible that Kruschewsky will wrestle more aggressively here than usual.
I’ve written a lot to say that there are many ways in which this fight could play out, but I am expecting chaos. Holobaugh will bring the pressure one way or the other, and force Kruschewsky to either strike back or wrestle.
If he gets a striking brawl, I’d favor Holobaugh to land big damage but he’s hittable as well and Kruschewsky could easily compete or win rounds if he just stays conscious. Some KO upside there too.
Both fighters might be able to submit the other, if they get on top, which is crazy to say. But I do think Kruschewsky is more likely to wrestle/dominate there at this point. He’s also the one coming off a devastating KO with much less experience than Holobaugh…
Great fight. I think I’m gonna pick Kruschewsky solely based on how bad Holobaugh looked with his defensive wrestling last time out.
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On DraftKings, this is one of my favorite fights to target on the slate and it will be interesting to see how the ownership shakes out.
Currently, I will project Holobaugh to be the more popular target given that he’s an obvious value at 7.5k. He’s +117 to win which means he’s pretty severely underpriced. Plus he’s very experienced, well-rounded and fights at a super high pace. And his opponent just got KOd.
It’s very easy to make the upside case for Holobaugh, and the value is obvious. He’s +215 to win ITD and he’s going to be hard to pass up.
I have no problems if you want to prioritize him outright or roster him moderately. It’s also possible that people will be scared off based on his last performance, so he may not be ultra-chalk, but the value will be hard to overlook and will give him a high ownership floor.
Of course, if this fight does go 15 minutes, there’s still some chance that he wouldn’t smash in a win. If he didn’t wrestle and there was some back-and-forth element, he could underperform. There’s always a case to be made to pivot away from the chalk.
But he’s got great win equity for this price, and a decent matchup for upside in front of him.
Kruschewsky at 8.7k is now overpriced, which is one obstacle to rostering him. That, and the fact that he looked mediocre and basically died in his UFC debut.
Despite Holobaugh also looking bad, it seems realistic to think that Kruschewsky won’t be slammed into lineups at 8.7k. And he could be outright overlooked/contrarian.
Either way, I’d expect him to be the leverage side, and the more leverage he is, the better play he is.
Holobaugh forces such a high pace that you’re going to have to produce a lot of offense to beat him. Or finish him. A striking decision is possible and that would definitely bust Kruschewsky, but Holobaugh has been knocked out before too, and clearly he can give up a ton of points on the mat.
Based on the pace, Kruschewsky has a high floor in a win, with a path to a strong ceiling as well. If he’s underowned at 8.7k with a +145 ITD line and grappling upside, just based on the ML, I’d consider him a great leverage target and someone I’d want to actively roster.
Either way, Kruschewsky is a fighter I’d want secondary exposure to, despite the bad price tag.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Kruschewsky by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Cody Durden vs. Bruno Silva
Fight Odds: Silva -111, Durden -103
Odds to Finish: +140
DraftKings Salaries: Durden 8.3k, Silva 7.9k
Weight Class: 125
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a really competitive fight here between two hard nosed fighters in Bruno Silva and Cody Durden.
Silva has not been very active lately and has only fought once in three years. He is actually on a three fight win streak and has finished all of his opponents.
Silva is generally a striker who will also mix in some takedowns. Silva is a capable striker but he doesn’t have the best volume. He lands 3.05 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.09 in return. He defends strikes at a good 59 percent though.
He is an okay striker with some decent hands and moderate power. I still don’t totally love his output but I do think he hits kind of hard. I just consider Silva competent on the feet. He is nothing great but is alright and semi-dangerous.
As a grappler, Silva is decent. He lands 2.57 takedowns per 15 minutes and attempts about nine takedowns per fight. He actually landed three takedowns on Dvorak and four on Tagir Ulanbekov. So he is capable of landing takedowns in this division. Silva also generally seems like a tough kid and I consider his durability strong.
I also consider him a decent defensive wrestler. He defends takedowns at 64 percent but is physical, and can work up and reverse position. He is a decent submission grappler as well.
Silva will be taking on Cody Durden. Durden is kind of a wrestle brawler. He likes to shoot in for takedowns and get the back to look for ground-and-pound or a quick submission. He will also try to grind fighters out for 15 minutes as he did to Carlos Mota, Qileng Aori, Charles Johnson, and Jake Hadley.
Durden showed some decent grit in those fights and stayed tough for fifteen minutes. He lands 4.84 takedowns per 15 minutes which is good. I think he can continue to win with wrestling against below-average grapplers at this level.
I still just think Durden has kind of been lucky with matchups and his competition has been horrific. Those four guys that I mentioned are absolutely terrible wrestlers. I was very confident in Tagir Ulanbekov before his recent matchup with Durden, and Ulanbekov dominated him.
I also don’t like that Durden has been submitted four times in his career. He seems tough and isn’t getting knocked out or anything, but I hate when gameplan dependent grapplers get consistently submitted. It just makes their fights even harder to predict.
Furthermore, I had questions about Durden’s defensive grappling before the Ulanbekov fight and Ulanbekov dominated him. I don’t think it is particularly great.
Durden is okay on the feet. He lands 3.16 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.89 in return. He just kind of brawls, and again, I think he is decent and powerful early. However, I don’t trust him to comfortably win over the course of 15 minutes in striking exchanges.
As far as this matchup goes, I do think these guys are competitively matched on the feet and on the mat. So I understand the close line.
However, I do lean Silva here a bit. On the feet, I think it is close and I maybe slightly lean Silva because of power, but Durden is decently busy. I kind of just expect it to be competitive, but maybe lean Silva a bit on striking effectiveness.
On the mat, I actually lean Silva a bit which may be an unpopular opinion. I surely think he is a better submission grappler than Durden and if anyone gets submitted, I think it will be Durden. Durden is just very prone to submissions.
Furthermore, I am not very sure Durden can easily hold Silva down. I do think Durden can land takedowns, but I doubt he can hold Silva down consistently or put him in danger on the mat. I actually think Silva is more likely to hold Durden down and put him in bad positions.
I am not all that confident like I was in the Durden/Ulanbekov fight, but I do lean Silva here a bit, and he may just be a sneaky tough matchup for Durden.
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On DraftKings, it’s a tricky matchup to be confident in but I do like the pace and potential for grappling exchanges.
Durden has the clearer path of the two to a fantasy ceiling as well, as he’s more dependent on takedowns to win. In his UFC wins, he landed 5, 0 (1 min KO), 4, 11 and 4 takedowns. It has resulted in DK scores of 93, 112, 86, 129 and 84.
It’s not an elite ceiling for Durden, largely because of his lack of finishing equity, but those takedowns will give him a strong floor and a clear path to exceeding value at 8.3k.
Silva is not a terrible grappler, but he was taken down five times by Ulankbekov, so I would expect Durden to need many takedowns to get his hand raised in this matchup.
At 8.3k, I think Durden is a reasonable secondary target. The issue is that he’s still +510 to win ITD and has very minimal domination upside. So although he can exceed value here in a win, I feel less confident about his chances of actually smashing.
Also, you can argue, like Tim did, that it’s just not that great of a matchup for Durden and he has a real chance to lose the fight. While I do respect the wrestling upside and would consider secondary exposure, I won’t plan to invest heavily in Durden this week.
Silva at 7.9k rates out a little better with a +200 ITD line, and he could be viewed as the preferred target.
I wonder how popular he will be having not fought more than once since 2021, but with recent DK scores of 92, 127 and 132. Box scores alone could push his ownership higher than I’d expect.
Those big scores came against really poor competition and in fact, the same competition that also allowed Durden to win by KO in one minute, so I don’t think it’s representative of Silva’s ceiling in this matchup.
With that said, Silva has five knockdowns in his last three matchups, and Durden has been dropped multiple times in the UFC. Silva also is a credible grappler who took Ulanbekov down four times himself, and Durden isn’t an elite defensive wrestler.
So if Silva wins, there is some damage potential, as well as grappling potential. The general pacing also gives Silva a moderate floor in a win.
You’re likely going to need a finish though, as a competitive fight with some grappling exchanges isn’t likely enough to smash. And with so many live underdogs priced below Silva, I do want a smash.
I’m not against the idea of mixing Silva in and he clearly has more finishing potential in this matchup. But he’d only be a secondary target and not a fighter I’m taking a heavy stand on against the field.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Silva by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Dooho Choi vs. Bill Algeo
Fight Odds: Algeo -165, Choi +142
Odds to Finish: +135
DraftKings Salaries: Algeo 8.9k, Choi 7.3k
Weight Class: 145
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
After a TKO loss and an arguable early stoppage against Kyle Nelson, I am sure Bill Algeo is anxious to get in the cage this weekend against Dooho Choi.
You just know what you are going to get with Algeo. He fights at a high pace and has good cardio. He is a high paced striker. He lands 6.16 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.52 in return. He only defends strikes at 47 percent. He isn’t super skilled. However, he just keeps coming and can compete just on his pace, volume, and aggressiveness.
Algeo is also a competent grappler. He only lands 0.86 takedowns per 15 minutes. However, he is a BJJ black belt and can land big GNP from top position. He only defends takedowns at 56 percent and can be taken down though.
However, he is scrambly and a pest in bottom position. He can usually work up or at least make opponents uncomfortable by working hard and always using his pace to land offense from the bottom.
I think Algeo is fine. He is competent in all areas and has good cardio. He is just very durable too and has only been knocked out once in 26 professional fights which was his last fight against Nelson, and he actually never even went down. He nearly beat Andre Fili and is clearly UFC level. He has his flaws though as I don’t consider him great defensively, and he can be taken down, but he will continue to be competitive in this division.
Algeo will be taking on “The Korean Superboy” Dooho Choi. Choi is famous for his 2016 war against Cub Swanson where he lost a back and forth fight. I honestly think he has been historically overrated as a fighter because of that fight.
Since then, Choi has had long breaks in between fights for mandatory military service, and has only competed three times. He hasn’t won a fight in eight years now and he was knocked out by Jeremy Stephens and Charles Jourdain. Choi coincidently then fought to a draw against Kyle Nelson in a back and forth strange fight in 2023.
Choi is basically a boxer who has some decent straight punches and power in the pocket. I actually don’t think he is great other than that though. He lands 4.74 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.91 in return which isn’t great.
I simply think he is hittable on the feet and his durability is very suspect to me. In his last four fights, he was hurt badly by Swanson, knocked out by Stephens, knocked out by Jourdain, and badly hurt by Nelson. That is just an awful durability track record.
Choi isn’t even a very good grappler either. He lands 0.29 takedowns per 15 minutes and only defends takedowns at 50 percent. I mean Kyle Nelson just took him down five times. Yes, Choi can defend wrestling a bit and float in top position. However, I don’t consider him a real talent on the mat.
I basically just expect Choi to be a guy who needs to win fun fights on the feet and is generally knockout reliant. That is really it. I do think he has some dangerous hands and power with his straight punches on the inside, but other than that I don’t rate him highly.
That is why I like Algeo in this fight. If Choi doesn’t knock out Algeo, is he really going to keep up with the pace and volume of Algeo? Probably not and there is a good chance Algeo just hurts him in the process as Choi’s durability is questionable. I also generally like Algeo’s durability so if Choi knocks him out so be it. I also think Algeo is a better grappler as well and more likely to land takedowns.
So I am going to go with Algeo here. I think he is a better striker and grappler with better durability. He will also have a height and reach advantage over Choi.
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On DraftKings, I have some interest in this fight as it could be high paced and there’s some knockout equity.
Algeo isn’t a monster hitter, and although Choi may be at times, Algeo isn’t the easiest to knock down and finish. Neither have immense grappling equity either.
It’s partially why the fight still won’t rate out extremely well at +135 to end inside the distance.
Still, Choi typically wins by early knockout when he wins at all, and he’s been hurt many times in recent losses. Despite the odds and lack of grappling equity, I am still interested in the matchup.
Algeo is priced up above where he’d normally be at 8.9k, on a slate filled with close matchups. At -160 to win, he’ll be knockout or bust and it feels difficult to prioritize him for this reason.
I’m still mildly interested in Algeo because if he can secure a finish, it’s likely to come with a high pace. We’ve seen him score 116 and 107 in wins before so there is some upside in that style.
Algeo is +300 to win ITD and is coming off a KO loss, so I don’t expect him to be too popular. If he’s firmly contrarian in this range, I do like him, and I wouldn’t mind being overweight. Otherwise, he’s a standard secondary target whose appeal is diminished a bit by the pricing.
Choi is priced down to 7.3k and with the same +300 ITD line, I could understand why he’d be mildly appealing.
With an up-pace and some real power, Choi at least saves salary and still creates upside within the construction. I don’t mind a bit of him, as he will fire and Algeo was just hurt.
I don’t really want to take an aggressive stand here as I think it’s a better matchup for Algeo, and there are plenty of live dogs to roster. Choi is just a standard secondary option for me but he won’t be a major priority, even in this range.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Algeo by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium-Low)
UNDERCARD
JeongYeong Lee vs. Hyder Amil
Fight Odds: Lee -192, Amil +164
Odds to Finish: -140
DraftKings Salaries: Lee 9.1k, Amil 7.1k
Weight Class: 145
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Hyder Amil is a Contender Series alum from this past season where he was successful in earning a contract. He made good on his debut back in February keeping his undefeated record intact – he’s 9-0 as a pro. JeongYeong Lee was a part of the Road to UFC series where he won the tournament final this past year and made good on his sophomore outing earlier this year – he’s 2-0 in the UFC and 11-1 as a pro.
The striking component:
I’m unsure of the formal background of Amil but he’s served as more of a technical brawler so far in his pro career.
He’s a southpaw that’ll throw the occasional sneaky high kick and clinch knee, but is primarily boxing based where he likes to march forward and keep his hands on opponents.
Amil has gotten tired in a handful of outings, but he does push through fatigue well and can break guys down as the party with just more left in the tank. He’s shown power components as well with 5/9 pro wins coming via KO/TKO.
Most recently, he put Fernie Garcia away in the 2nd round. Garcia isn’t a great talent but has always been known for his toughness and Amil handed him his first finish loss.
Given his more brooding/brawling nature, his defense isn’t always a priority where he’s particularly susceptible walking into counter shots when he doesn’t have his guard high, which has busted him up in a few spots.
In his defense, the guy’s shown good hardware and has been able to take everything coming back at him to date.
Overall, he’s a fun guy to watch that I’d anticipate standing success for at the UFC level, but he’ll most likely struggle with longer fighters who have the footwork and defense to keep him at bay.
I believe Lee comes from a grappling background, however he’s served as more of a striker throughout his pro career. He fights in a more prototypical Korean style as a pressure kickboxing type but does prefer his punches with a good straight right, left hook and uppercut.
His pacing I would say is about average as I’ve seen him fight at higher rates before (more so when he really finds his groove), but also be more of a methodical, blitzing, range sniper type as well.
In that, he’s displayed some power with 4/11 pro wins coming via KO and usually from those bursting in shots. He also hurt Bilder early with a clinch knee in his last outing.
Defensively, he’s a pretty linear fighter so he can be susceptible to straights at range but does leave himself exposed in the pocket when he wants to brawl – he reminds me a bit of fellow Korean Doo Ho Choi but he’s not as good/proven of course.
His chin has generally been good, but we did see him get dropped in his 1st pro loss back in 2017 – kind of a weird fight as it was only two rounds where if it was being scored by rounds, it would have been 1-1 going to a 3rd but they gave it to the other guy – Lee did avenge that loss though the following year.
But outside of that, he just hasn’t faced extensive volume.
Overall, Lee seems like a decent striker but may be a “live by the sword, die by the sword” type at the UFC level as I still don’t rate his ability to win “clean” extended minutes all that much.
How it plays out: Lee will serve as the longer, more technical party in all likelihood. At the same time, we’ve rarely seen him be put on the back foot or face high amounts of volume which is what Amil has been consistent to bring throughout the course of his career. So, it begs the question of how Lee potentially does when he’s not able to dictate range exchanges. That’s not to say that Lee can’t/won’t win in a firefight with Amil, but I don’t think that’s optimal for him in this matchup.
The wrestling/grappling component:
The ground has been a little all over the board for Amil so far in his pro career.
He’s not a fighter who you can anticipate to come out and shoot many TDs but he’s mixed in some more reactionary shots here and there. Primarily how he’s getting to top positions is either with damaging his opponents, being able to stuff entry shots from them or being able to win in the scrambles.
He has one pro win via submission, but he hasn’t prioritized the submission much in recent years and is more so looking to land GNP.
Defensively, he’s struggled with some reactionary shots himself and chunks of the attritional wrestling that came from Sonmez back on the Contender Series.
However, he stuffed 18 of 23 shots in what was a taxing affair and despite losing early, he was ultimately able to nullify real effective offense or positions from Sonmez to edge out that decision.
He has given his back though on more than one occasion and we did see Gibson take it in his last LFA fight – but it does appear that Amil has capable submission defense as he showed good hand fighting abilities not only in that spot, but in others as well in dealing with front chokes.
Overall, I have some ground concerns for Amil when fighting stronger floor players at the UFC level, but three of his last four wins have come against base floor players to where he’s shown he’s definitely game in that realm as well.
As noted, Lee does come from a grappling background, but I wasn’t able to find anything on his official credentials.
Ironically, he’s rarely wrestled in his career and I watched the bulk of his pro career so it may be something difficult to bank on in the UFC – coupled with just not knowing much about his offensive prowess there.
Three of his wins do come via submission though with the most recent one being in his 1st Road to UFC fight where he was taken down early by his opponent but snatched up an armbar. His two other submissions come via armbar as well, suggesting he’s not much of a top player in addition to his historic lack of willingness to wrestle.
He did get the better of the ground last time out against Bilder though, landing two TDs in the back half of the fight – Bilder kind of just accepted positions though and played guard.
Defensively, he got into some scrambles back regionally but was largely able to stay upright – he also wasn’t shot on much.
It was really his fight against Yizha in the Road to UFC Finals where we saw some more negative things.
He got taken down five times and was controlled for over half the fight – I’d say roughly half of that was via cage push with the other half on the ground.
He did stuff a total of 16 other shots which needs to be noted but he still really struggled to get off the fence and create space at the end of the day.
I don’t really understand the decision of that fight considering the strikes were close and there weren’t any uber massive moments either – Yizha deserved that victory in my eyes.
Despite Bilder not being able to ground Lee or do anything with his offensive pursuit, he held Lee against the fence for five minutes of that fight.
Overall, I want more of a sample before really putting any stamp on what I think about his ground game but it doesn’t appear to be anything special.
How it plays out: The floor’s interesting as both aren’t super proactive offensive wrestlers and many past opponents have tried shooting in volume on them. Despite the last fight for Lee and Amil’s TDD not being anything spectacular, he’s really tough to control from conventional positions unless guys get to his back and use body triangles – something I haven’t seen from Lee to date. So, I don’t think Lee’s holding Amil down here even if he’s landing TDs. Conversely, I think Amil will probably struggle to control Lee as well from conventional positions, but he will do damage as well. So, it’s a spot where you could sell me minimal upside for either party, but I’d anticipate we get a primary striking affair.
Interesting fight between two guys with shiny pro records but not one’s I’m super high on at the same time. To me this seems like a higher variance war where both guys are capable of hurting each other. As touched on, Lee’s a bit cleaner than Amil but I also think Amil’s going to force a dog fight here which closes the margins a lot. I’ll take Amil for the upset.
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On DraftKings, I am interested in this fight for pacing reasons.
I was reading back my initial breakdown of Amil prior to his UFC debut, and I forgot just how much I liked him. Not in the sense of his overall talent, but he’s an aggressive fighter who will push forward and fight for your money.
We got him in a spot where the fight was nearly -200 to go the distance, simply based on his UFC debut where he had to fend off a million takedown attempts. And then he and Fernie Garcia went to war and Amil finished him in round two. It was a super fun debut.
I feel pretty willing to jump on the train once again, at least in terms of the matchup, given what I suspected about Amil’s style heading into that debut.
He’s not super defensively sound, but he pushes a pace and is willing to exchange. I also believe Lee will be willing to exchange, so we could get a firefight.
Now this matchup is -140 to end inside the distance, so there’s reasonable finishing equity, and a finish on either could set up well for DK.
Lee is priced up to 9.1k and he’s certainly viable. He’s +140 to win ITD which isn’t phenomenal but this slate has very few (if none) elite options.
Lee will have an opportunity to hurt Amil, and there’s some wrestling equity as well. Mostly, I believe that just because Amil pushes a hard pace, Lee is likely going to need to produce a lot of offense, or more likely find a finish to get his hand raised.
While I’m not particularly confident in Lee, I am willing to play him for pacing and upside at 9.1k. He’s not a stand out but someone I want exposure to for sure.
Amil at 7.1k certainly interests me with the salary discount.
Again, I’m not extremely confident he can break Lee but I do see that as one of the most realistic win conditions, and coming off a DK score of 132 I am obviously willing to take some chances.
Amil landed 79 sig. strikes in six minutes last time. He’s +325 to win ITD. There’s some wrestling equity.
More realistically, he can produce a fair amount of offense if he gets his hand raised and potentially compete for the optimal at a cheap price tag. There are many other dogs to consider but I like Amil for the savings and wouldn’t mind being near or overweight to the field once again.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Amil by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Brian Kelleher vs. Cody Gibson
Fight Odds: Gibson -207, Kelleher +175
Odds to Finish: -145
DraftKings Salaries: Gibson 9.3k, Kelleher 6.9k
Weight Class: 135
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Brian Kelleher’s entering his 8th year on the active roster and starting to get up there in age as he’ll be turning 38 years old next month – he’s 8-8 in the UFC and 24-15 as a pro. Cody Gibson’s also not a spring chicken at 36 years old now, in his 2nd UFC stint after coming up short in the finals of the recent TUF 31 season – he’s 1-5 in the UFC and 19-10 as a pro.
The striking component:
Kelleher’s a smaller guy standing 5’6” with a 66” reach, who works an aggressive style.
He does a good job of switching stances and throwing from different angles to keep his opponents off kilter on what he throws. In that, he’s got some nice hooks (specifically the left) and utilizes good body and tepe kicks. Offensively, he’s only landing 3.4 sig. strikes per minute at 41%.
Nearly half of his fight time is spent grappling though which is what skews that number down – he lands 4.7 distance strikes/minute and throws over 12 so his distance volume is better than what his significant numbers suggest, despite it still being around the divisional average.
He’s not a huge power guy but does have two KOs in eight UFC wins.
The primary issue with Kelleher is his defense as he eats 4.6 sig. strikes per minute and defends at only 54% — additionally eating nearly 7.0 distance strikers per minute. In his 16 UFC fights, Kelleher also has a negative distance differential of -2.2/minute.
This gives credence to him being outlanded at distance in 12 of 16 UFC fights.
But in referencing Kelleher’s numbers, it does need to be put into the context that half of his opponents were/are top 15 to fringe top 15 fighters – Kelleher has had no easy road.
Overall, he’s reliable to push a consistent pace for 15 minutes but he’s not good defensively and is often not winning consistent minutes standing in his fights that have had more extended range time.
Gibson’s a wrestler by base but is a guy who’s more than content to stand and mix it up on the feet.
His pacing has been a bit all over the board as I’ve seen him be high volume in certain affairs but low volume in others. His best work comes with hands when he can really start to work with his frame, as he’s a good sized 135er standing 5’10” with a 71” reach.
He’s got a particularly good long straight right and some pull counters.
Gibson has shown power as well, finishing 7/19 pro wins via strikes – he also knocked down Gamburyan in one his UFC losses and caught Gutierrez with a flying knee more recently on TUF.
Defensively, I think he’s decent when he wants to be. But my issue is that he can get lazy at times at distance or just throw his defense out the window completely. Additionally, he’s had some tighter rounds on minutes.
He’s never been KO’d in his pro career, so I’d have to classify him as a durable fighter, but he got knocked down by Andrade back in the day, got knocked down in his fight against Rivera prior to entering TUF and got his eye busted up against Katona in the finals, with optics of late Katona damage that probably cost him that fight.
Overall, he’s a scrappy, serviceable guy on the feet but his defense isn’t great for a guy of his size/length.
How it plays out: I’m not the biggest proponent of either guy’s stand up given some of their defensive issues but of the two, Gibson is the better defensive fighter and will realize a 4” height and 5” reach advantage in the matchup. Despite both guys being older, I trust the durability of Gibson more than I do Kelleher at this point. Additionally, I’m not as concerned about Gibson’s variable volume here, considering Kelleher’s fighting style just makes him so available.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Kelleher is a brown belt in BJJ and a tricky grappler at times. Of his 10 pro submission wins, eight of them have come by guillotine.
It’s not traditionally something I like to see as a fighter’s “calling card” as when they don’t get them, they end up on bottom, but Kelleher has a tight squeeze.
However, he’s been submitted four times in the UFC as he got armbarred by Vera, wrapped up in a d’arce by Montel Jackson (who has ridiculously long arms) off a bad TD shot, and then got his back taken quickly by Umar and Bautista.
He lands 1.74 TDs per 15 minutes at 41% but his numbers jumped up a good bit in his last two Ws where he took more wrestling heavier approaches – both Pillarte and Croom gassed though and are now cut so take that for what you will.
In the aggregate, you don’t see him wrestle a ton as he falls into that category of guys who like to let it fly on the feet as they’re not concerned with being taken down. There is heavy context there as well, as Kelleher has fought some stronger wrestling/grappling based fighters in his run.
He only stuffs TDs at 60% which isn’t great but isn’t horrible either with context – but it’s that guillotine that has often given guys pause when looking to wrestle him.
The only guy to really extensively control Kelleher was Simon but Simon’s one of the better wrestlers in the division and very physically strong – no real shame in hindsight.
Stamann went 2/4 on TDs against him but got less than two minutes of control on Kelleher which was impressive for Kelleher given that Stamann is also an upper tier wrestler in the division. Stamann didn’t commit a ton though which needs to be noted.
Outside of that, he’s shown to be a pretty solid scrambler with a good get up game if he’s not getting put in dominant positions quickly by higher level fighters.
Overall, the ground has given Kelleher success but troubles in other fights as well.
Gibson was a JUCO All-American wrestler back in the day and is also a BJJ brown belt.
Despite his background though, he’s not the guy to be diving on the legs for 15 minutes.
He landed a few TDs on Dodson but couldn’t flatten him – no shame as Dodson is incredibly difficult to take down and hold down – did get some cage grind minutes on him though. In his loss to Borg, he got rag-dolled in the back half of the fight and gassed out – Borg is a good wrestler though and a former top 15 guy in fairness.
Then in a couple of his more recent wins he’s been able to lock up some top side submissions but not against a very high brand of competition.
However, he’s been submitted in 4/10 pro losses (3 by guillotine) and wrestling against him has been a component in his losses even dating back to his original UFC run.
Overall, it’s still a bit difficult for me to assess Gibson on the ground because I don’t really rate the guys he’s having success against, and I can’t fault him for the guys who have outwrestled him.
How it plays out: The ground’s interesting given what’s written above as I don’t view either guy as having the pedigree of the fighters who have outwrestled both in the past. I suppose I’d lean more to the Gibson side just in the sense that he does come from a wrestling background and will be the more physical fighter. At the same time, Kelleher is the better submission grappler and it’s difficult to ignore Gibson being guillotined 3 times when that’s Kelleher’s best submission. If Gibson does take a wrestling approach, he’s definitely going to need to mind his Ps and Qs.
This isn’t a fight I’m super interested in as it involves two relatively over the hill guys with a healthy number of miles on them. But of the two, Gibson seems like he has more to give generally and in relation to the specific matchup, so he’ll be my pick to win. At the same time, I don’t trust Gibson much and Kelleher isn’t the type of fighter you can sleep on.
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On DraftKings, Gibson is the most expensive fighter on the board at 9.3k, which is a bit crazy as he’s only lined around -200 to win.
It’s our most tightly lined card in a long while, and Gibson feels overpriced because of it.
With that said, Kelleher has been finished in round one in each of his past three fights, and I do think some folks will be interested to pay up given that salary should be freely available. Gibson has also lost five consecutive tracked fights, so many may look at his box score and choose to cross him out completely.
Gibson is +120 to win ITD in the matchup which is pretty decent and one of the better lines on the slate. For that reason alone, he can definitely be considered.
Kelleher has a bad habit of getting finished in losses, so I can definitely picture Gibson following that trend. It could come early as well.
It’s pretty difficult for me to project as Gibson isn’t great in any one area, and Kelleher, while losing a lot recently, has been fighting great competition. His only UFC losses are to Garbrandt, Bautista, Umar Nurmagomedov, Ricky Simon, Cody Stamann, Montel Jackson, John Lineker and Marlon Vera. All very strong.
I don’t put Gibson anywhere near that category of opponent, though it might not matter in 2024.
The bottom line is that Gibson doesn’t project to produce enough offense on the feet or with his wrestling to be super impactful at this price. However, if he finds an early finish, then he’ll certainly have a chance to hit a ceiling.
I can’t prioritize him personally but with all the salary available, I understand wanting to mix him in as a secondary target, especially if the field seems concerned.
Kelleher at 6.9k has some viability but I think his upside is largely tied to a guillotine choke, which he often hunts and which Luke noted Gibson has tapped to several times.
Kelleher shouldn’t be super likely to produce a ton of strikes or takedowns though, and betting on guillotines longterm isn’t smart. He’s only +385 to win ITD.
Also, with so many live underdogs, there’s less of a need to fully punt and take on more risk, as we might have several dogs below the mid-range win as well. Kelleher has topped 90 points in eight of his UFC wins though, and he’s topped five times.
I don’t think it makes sense to be aggressive with Kelleher here, but he does have some finishing equity in his style and he’s not even that heavy of a dog. He’s fine as a low-end secondary target though I do prefer other options nearby.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Gibson by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Miranda Maverick vs. Dione Barbosa
Fight Odds: Maverick -220, Barbosa +185
Odds to Finish: +240
DraftKings Salaries: Maverick 9.2k, Barbosa 7k
Weight Class: 125
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a decent middle class matchup here as Miranda Maverick will take on Dione Barbosa this weekend.
Maverick is a decent fighter and decent striker. She has some pretty sharp hands. She lands 3.80 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.60 in return. She defends strikes at 59 percent.
She outlanded Barber 43-26 at range which was a decent performance and she definitely showed some skills. I didn’t like the way she handled the pressure striking of Jasmine in her most recent loss though. She clearly looked uncomfortable when she wasn’t given space to operate.
Maverick is an okay grappler. She lands 2.49 takedowns per 15 minutes and is fully capable of landing takedowns and floating in top position. She outwrestled Gillian Robertson rather easily which was a good performance by her.
Maverick’s defensive grappling is okay. She defends takedowns at 40 percent. She was outgrappled by Blanchfield and Jasmine, but Blanchfield and Jasmine are good wrestlers. Maverick actually shut down the wrestling attack of Robertson which shows she isn’t awful. I do think her defensive grappling could use improvement though. However, I generally think she can stifle below-average to average grapplers.
Maverick will be taking on Dione Barbosa. Barbosa fights out of Brazil and is 7-2 professionally. She comes from a Judo and BJJ background and holds a blackbelt in both arts. She has shown in her career that she is a decent takedown artist and submission grappler, and has three submission wins in her career. I still hate judo takedowns though and consider that style to be flawed because it’s often reliant on head and arm throws.
Barbosa booked her ticket to the UFC on the Contender Series by submitting her opponent in round one. She then fought Ernesta Kareckaite in her UFC debut and won a very close decision.
Barbosa looked good early against Kareckaite, showed some power on the feet and hurt Kareckaite. She also showed her grappling and takedowns early. Eventually though, Barbosa slowed down considerably and lost the latter half of the fight easily. She gassed, couldn’t land takedowns anymore, and got outstruck at distance 44-33 at range. She even ended up on the bottom herself.
It was kind of a bad look for Barbosa if I am being honest. I do think Barbosa is still a decent grappler early, and I think she can beat weak grapplers on the mat. I also like her explosiveness and power on the feet early. However, her striking is still pretty weak and her cardio is poor, and I don’t trust her long term.
As far as this matchup goes, I like Maverick here because I think she is a more complete fighter with better cardio and striking.
I do think Barbosa could have some early success, potentially landing some takedowns or power shots on the feet. She may honestly win round one. However, Maverick has good enough defensive wrestling to likely stifle Barbosa to a degree and survive. Maverick should probably have a clear advantage in the latter half of the fight and will likely be the fresher fighter, and could take over with striking and potentially end up in top position herself.
So I am going to go with Maverick here. She has better cardio, is a better striker and durable fighter, and has much more experience than Barbosa. I think as long as Maverick stays composed, she should take over this fight.
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On DraftKings, Maverick is priced up to 9.2k and it’s a bit of a tough sell for me.
The real upside, I believe, is if Barbosa gasses out terribly once again and Maverick can pound her out.
The concern I’m having is that Barbosa should be highly competitive early, and I wouldn’t be surprised if she’s outright winning. Maverick doesn’t defend takedowns that well and Barbosa is more skilled than her on the mat.
It’s tough for me to want to load up on Maverick at this price tag when I’m not particularly confident she’ll be winning early. Still, there’s always some upside in positions like this if the opponent will truly gas out and get finished.
Maverick is only +375 to win ITD though, which is another issue. She’s not a phenomenal finisher.
I don’t hate Maverick though. The cardio of Barbosa is a concern and if it’s truly terrible, it could lead to a finish. I do not plan on paying up for Maverick at a high rate though, and consider her more of a secondary or floor target.
Barbosa at 7k is hard to justify a lot of, but easy to justify some of.
She may be grappling dependent in this matchup, and she’s skilled enough in that area to have early success. I wouldn’t at all be surprised if she took Maverick’s back early. Perhaps her cardio looks better here, and she can grapple her way to a decision.
At least she attempted six takedowns in round three in her last fight. That’s better than purely gassing out and attempting nothing. There’s a path for Barbosa and she’s still athletic enough to stay composed standing while she has the cardio.
At 7k, Barbosa won’t rate out great with a +500 ITD line and I wouldn’t expect a finish. She shouldn’t be ultra popular though and when I need to save salary, I like considering Barbosa a bit.
A low-end secondary target due to concerns but with grappling equity at 7k, I don’t mind a bit of Barbosa and think she could surprise Maverick early.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Maverick by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Loik Radzhabov vs. Trey Ogden
Fight Odds: Radzhabov -115, Ogden +100
Odds to Finish: +160
DraftKings Salaries: Radzhabov 8.4k, Ogden 7.8k
Weight Class: 155
Trey Ogden has somehow continued to win inside the Octagon, and he’ll get another step up in competition against the former PFL title challenger Loik Radzhabov this weekend.
Ogden is coming off a dominant victory over Kurt Holobaugh, where he needed one takedown per round to control the vast majority of the minutes. It was also the second consecutive fight in which Ogden was able to land three takedowns, which is a good sign as his wrestling will continue to be an extremely important factor in his success.
Previously, Ogden was in the midst of dominating Nikolas Motta on the mat, but was robbed of the win when the ref stepped in late in the third round to call off the fight, thinking Motta was unconscious.
Still, the success Ogden has had on the mat against two dangerous strikers in Motta and Holobaugh have been among the best wins of his career. And I will admit that up until now, and possibly still including now, I’ve never been that high on Ogden.
Ogden is a BJJ black belt but he’s not a very dangerous submission artist, nor is he a super strong wrestler despite a collegiate background, so I’ve always felt that his ceiling will be limited at the UFC level.
We don’t have to look much further than his early UFC career, where he couldn’t outwrestle Jordan Leavitt and failed to clearly beat him in striking exchanges as well. On the regional scene, Ogden also lost three times by submission, including twice to Thomas Gifford which is a major red flag as Gifford is absolutely not UFC level.
The combination of these things really lead me to believe that Ogden, while competent on the mat, isn’t very special there either.
Furthermore, his striking has been non-existent for the majority of his career, but he’s suddenly improved upon those skills as well. After getting doubled up at distance by Leavitt (who is a grappler), Ogden somehow was able to outland Daniel Zellhuber in 2022, a solid striking prospect.
He also showed a lot of intelligence by jabbing and managing distance well against Motta, who wanted to pressure him and knock him out. Likewise, Holobaugh pressured very aggressively and threatened Ogden with power.
I still don’t believe Ogden is very good, but I do think he’s improving and I do like his Fight IQ at times. He won’t throw a ton of volume and he won’t be impactful with the volume he does throw, but he’ll generally jab, limit exchanges, and aim to be defensive.
In total, I am still highly suspect of Ogden’s capabilities against strong competition, but he’s done well enough to limit opponents at the UFC level, and more recently find his way to top position where he can grind and win rounds.
Loik Radzhabov is an MMA veteran who had some success in PFL, and eventually made his UFC debut against Esteban Ribovics in 2023, barely escaping with a win, though he torched Ribovics on the mat, taking him down 11 times in 15 minutes.
He received a much needed step up in competition against Mateusz Rebecki last June, and was TKOd in the second round.
In these first two UFC performances, I think we’ve seen a fair version of what Radzhabov brings to the table. I would categorize him as a wrestling reliant fighter who has power but questionable consistency within his striking, and a questionable gas tank as well.
Most recently, Radzhabov actually won by third round KO against Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady, though that fight was back-and-forth for the early portions. Radzhabov landed another four takedowns and had beaten Al-Selwady up in top position, but he’d also been taken down a few times himself, and was outstruck in round two.
It was an interesting turn of events because Radzhabov appeared to be fading in the second round, but Al-Selwady was tired as well, and the fight was ultimately stopped less than one minute into round three.
I would say that ultimately, just like Ogden, despite Radzhabov’s recent win, I still find him a bit hard to trust and I question the ceiling of his style.
As far as the matchup, I think it will likely be competitive.
Ogden isn’t super dangerous with any aspect of his game, and I’m not very convinced he can land takedowns with consistency in this matchup.
If Radzhabov is dead tired then yes, Ogden will have advantages and he might be able to lay on Radzhabov and beat him up with strikes. Early on, I think Radzhabov can probably defend takedowns fine and I think he’s a capable scrambler.
Radzhabov is probably the better pure wrestler and the more physical party of the two, and I think he can have some success as well. Ogden has been taken down before on the regional scene and obviously he’s been submitted a few times. He hasn’t been taken down in any UFC fight though, so the sampling is a bit small.
Radzhabov isn’t a dominant submission grappler either though, so my best guess is that especially early, whoever gets on top won’t be able to hold the position or dominate.
In striking exchanges, Radzhabov may be the more aggressive and explosive of the two, but he can’t throw a lot because he will get tired. He has some power, but I think Ogden has shown enough competency to stay safe at distance.
And actually, I’d probably favor Ogden at this point. A simple jab and defensive footwork could be enough to keep up pace with Radzahbov and make him tired, though optics may not favor Ogden. The longer the fight goes, the more I’d favor Ogden who I believe has the better gas tank of the two.
I think it’s fair to favor Ogden because of the gas tank alone. Late in the fight, it just doesn’t feel likely that Radzhabov can continue to land takedowns, and mount any real effective offense. Ogden may be able to do it just based on cardio.
However, Ogden really doesn’t push a pace in fights, so my gut feeling is that neither guy will be completely tired. And if the two neutralize each other to a degree on the mat, this fight may not really live up to its potential.
I see both striking and grappling exchanges being competitive, but I’m just unsure about how much meaningful offense there will be on either side.
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On DraftKings, this fight is a near pick’em with Radzhabov priced up to 8.4k and Ogden priced at 7.8k.
However, Radzhabov has scored very well in wins, and we see the public chasing box scores more and more. He put up 120 points in his UFC debut on 11 takedowns, and 97 points in his most recent fight with a late TKO.
Sure, if either of those outcomes come to fruition, Radzhabov definitely still has DraftKings upside. And I do think 3-5 takedowns are viable for Radzhabov.
But he is only +240 to win ITD in a fight that’s -230 to go Over 2.5 rounds, and I don’t really trust his finishing upside in this matchup. Ogden will limit strikes absorbed, and he may be competent enough on the mat to limit Radzhabov there as well.
There’s some merit to targeting Radzhabov just in the sense that if he wins, it’s likely to come from grappling. A handful of takedowns could lead to control, ground strikes, and maybe a finishing opportunity. I do like the style of Radzhabov in general.
I’m just pretty unsure about the matchup, as it should be down in pace with neither side projecting to dominate in any area. I’ll likely be light on Radzhabov this week but there’s some contrarian/secondary viability just based on the fact that he will want to pursue the takedown.
Ogden at 7.8k isn’t a typical fantasy star, though his recent win changed that narrative. He had previously only scored 65 points in a decision win, which is extremely concerning and the more fair bar of his style.
However, against Holobaugh, Ogden put up 117 DK points which was a total smash. And it was all because he was able to accrue 11 minutes of top time, which allowed him to land nearly 200 ground strikes. Almost none of which were deemed significant.
I don’t think he can duplicate that performance, but if Radzhabov is tired by round two, there is some upside. Ogden landing 2-3 takedowns and winning the final two rounds based on control is definitely viable. It could be enough to exceed 10x and perhaps compete with the optimal lineup.
He is only +500 to win ITD though so I’m not overwhelmingly excited about his chances to smash. At 7.8k, I don’t hate Ogden as he probably finds some ground success if he wins at all, but I am fairly worried about his ceiling and would label him more of a secondary option than anything I’m excited to roster.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Ogden by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Luana Carolina vs. Lucie Pudilova
Fight Odds: Carolina -109, Pudilova -105
Odds to Finish: +275
DraftKings Salaries: Pudilova 8.2k, Carolina 8k
Weight Class: 125
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a low level WMMA fight here between Luana Carolina and Lucie Pudilova.
Carolina is a striker and a Thai striker more specifically. She uses a lengthy and evasive game to land some long punches and kicks. She is okay. She lands 4.63 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.63 in return. She only defends strikes at 49 percent.
She is simply an okay striker who can compete against the lower level and average strikers in this weight class.
Carolina doesn’t wrestle much. She only lands 0.38 takedowns per 15 minutes and has never won by submission in her professional career. In her last fights against Ivana Petrovic and Julija Stoliarenko, she did at least float on top and got some control time. Her offensive wrestling is still not good though.
She does at least defend takedowns at 76 percent and defended well in her last couple of fights. She can be pressured and clinched up and I have seen her taken down and controlled.
She was also comically kneebarred against Ariana Lipski a few years back. However, her TDD isn’t THAT bad. She sneakily beat Loopy Godinez and defended 13 of 15 takedown attempts by Godinez. She also defended well against Julija Stoliarenko. When she is actually grounded though, she does have trouble getting up at times. I also just don’t trust her submission defense after seeing the Lipski sequence.
Carolina will be taking on UFC veteran Lucie Pudilova. Pudilova has actually lost six of her last seven UFC fights, with her only win coming against Wu Yanan. So it is hard to be confident in her.
Pudilova isn’t very skilled, but she is aggressive. As a striker, she lands 3.68 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.83 in return. She defends strikes at 51 percent. She had a fun war with Irene Aldana years back. She is just kind of a brawler as a striker who can have success based on aggressiveness more than skill.
She has not looked great on her feet as of late though. Kish, Edwards, and Perez all got the better of her on the feet.
Pudilova randomly decided to become a grappler against Wu Yanan. She landed a couple of takedowns and landed some hard ground-and-pound. I do like her ground and pound from top position. She also had some grappling success against Joselyn Edwards and landed two takedowns in that fight.
However, Pudilova only lands 0.55 takedowns per 15 minutes and attempts about two takedowns per fight. I don’t think she is the best technical wrestler either. So I am not totally buying her grappling path to victory going forward. It will just have to come vs really bad fighters.
As far as this matchup goes, I do think Pudilova has some grappling upside. Carolina is just bad enough to where I could see Pudilova landing a takedown or two and having some success in top position. So surely Pudilova has a path to victory here.
However, Pudilova has only landed five combined takedowns in 10 UFC fights. People think of Pudilova as a grappler now, but the numbers suggest otherwise. Carolina has also sneakily stifled wrestlers lately. So I am honestly leaning towards Carolina stifling the grappling of Pudilova enough to where this becomes a striking fight and my guess is that the winner of the striking will win this fight.
So I have to go with Carolina here. I honestly trust her as a striker more. I think she uses her length better and is more evasive than Pudilova. Pudilova has also just looked bad standing lately. This is still a low level fight so I do think Pudilova could keep striking rounds competitive, but I lean Carolina a bit as I think she is a little more skillful and processed as a striker.
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On DraftKings, I’m honestly struggling to care about this matchup in any form, and I doubt I’ll be much invested in either side.
Pudilova is priced at 8.2k and most books have the bout as a pick’em, or a slight lean toward Carolina now.
We have seen Pudilova land 99, and 105 strikes in fights before, so there’s some volume upside here. But she actually lost both of those fights, and wouldn’t have surpassed 85 DraftKings points in either.
She has topped 100 points twice in her career and both came from wrestling success. I do think she has some grappling equity in this matchup and I don’t want to fully overlook it, but it’s very difficult to trust.
Even two takedowns with 80 significant strikes probably doesn’t clear the 85 point mark anyway. She’d likely need a level of domination there, or a finish.
Pudilova is +460 to win ITD which is really poor. I doubt she’ll be owned at all though, with the fight sitting at -350 to go the distance.
I think Pudilova has some contrarian interest due to mild grappling equity, but it still feels like a stretch, and it’s only a position I would consider with a very large portfolio.
Carolina at 8k may be slightly more popular as she’s coming off a 106 point win and is the favorite on some books, but I don’t really like her much either.
She only reached that ceiling because she was able to grapple and won late ITD. It was the first time in her UFC career she landed two takedowns and the second time in her career where she landed more than zero.
So she’s not really a consistent wrestler in any form. Pudilova isn’t great defensively so perhaps there’s some mild grappling equity here too, but 80-100 significant strikes feels more realistic.
Carolina is +480 to win ITD as well, which is awful.
I do like the theoretical pace of the matchup and I’d project a very strong striking volume floor for the winner, but that’s simply not enough. Without real wrestling or finishing equity, I don’t see either fighter competing for the optimal lineup.
Neither fighter should be popular and both could be outright contrarian, so it’s not the worst idea to sprinkle them if you believe there’s a chance we could see grappling domination on either side.
I’m just not very comfortable in that projection, or in either fighter’s talent, so neither will be a priority for me in any format.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Carolina by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Mohammed Usman vs. Thomas Petersen
Fight Odds: Usman -132, Petersen +115
Odds to Finish: +155
DraftKings Salaries: Usman 8.8k, Petersen 7.4k
Weight Class: HW
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Mohammed Usman was a part of the TUF 30 season back in 2022 where he won the tournament finals earning a contract. He’s since gone 2-1 looking to rebound from his first UFC loss this past March – he’s 10-3 as a pro. Thomas Petersen’s a Contender Series alum from this past season but had a rocky debut back in February – he’s 8-2 as a pro.
The striking component:
Usman’s a wrestler by base but we have seen a healthy amount of him at distance over the years as well. His striking is relatively basic and his output over the years has been a bit all over the board.
In his three pro losses against Mayes, Sayles and Parkin he was outstruck – actually knocked down twice by Sayles which wasn’t a great look. On TUF, he was able to outstrike Sipe, but Sipe also gassed and has essentially no defense.
His fight with Perez was very competitive where he ever so slightly edged the boxing but did struggle with leg kicks to squeak out a SD victory. Pauga was winning the striking before eating a short-left hook in the 2nd. Tafa hurt him on pretty much every striking exchange that happened in that fight.
He lost the early exchanges to Collier and got buckled, but outstruck him in the latter two rounds to go on and win a decision. Usman also landed 85 significant strikes in that fight so despite his historic lower volume ways, it’s good to see that he can fight in a higher output affair – I thought his cardio looked good as well.
He’s shown some power components in his blitz’s, but I wouldn’t classify him as a “large” hitter by heavyweight standards.
Overall, he’s traditionally a lower-volume heavyweight with average power and most of his opponents haven’t thrown much back at him. He just isn’t going to be a guy to “cleanly” win minutes at this level standing.
There isn’t a ton to say here with Petersen given his historic ground success.
He doesn’t throw a ton generally but when he does throw, it’s usually a strong left followed by a flurry of other strikes to primarily close distance. However, he has shown pop with that left hand which has floored a few guys early in the past.
It was really his fight with Acosta to where we learned some more. Similarly, he had some success in those bursts, but Acosta started to chip away at him as the fight progressed when he couldn’t finish Acosta. It was the straight shots of Acosta in the jab to both the head and body that gave Peterson the biggest issues – a straight shot eventually floored him late in the 3rd. Contextually not a bad loss though considering what Acosta’s been able to do so far in the UFC.
However, we additionally saw the straight shots from Pogues last time out give Peterson issues to where he was effectively outstruck through the first couple rounds – Peterson had a better 3rd round though where he was able to win there on the feet.
Overall, Peterson’s still pretty raw as a striker as he doesn’t have the technicality or cardio to really push a hard 15 minutes standing, leaving him as more of a blitzing guy. If KOs don’t come for him, his ceiling is going to be very tight margins or just losing outright.
How it plays out: Despite me not being the biggest fan of Usman’s striking, I’d favor him on the feet as he’s just a more proven distance commodity than Petersen who has won multiple 15-minute striking fights. But as noted, Usman’s pacing can be all over the board and he’s coming off losing a fight to Parkin where he essentially just let the guy jab and leg kick him for 15 minutes. He’s also not a gigantic hitter so the combination of those two things really leave the door open for Petersen to compete standing or potentially win here. We’ve also seen fighters’ volume drop in fights inherently if they’re facing a known wrestling threat back their way, so that at least gives Petersen an out. Given Usman has his own wrestling background, that may not come into play at all but it’s something to consider.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Usman comes from a wrestling background but didn’t wrestle collegiately as he decided to pursue an NFL career which ended up not panning out.
He’s shown some decent entries and can rack up a healthy amount of control time when he’s able to land his TDs, but the guys he’s been able to outwrestle regionally just haven’t been very good. He’s also shown some decent GNP in certain spots.
But between TUF and his first three UFC fights, his entries haven’t been great, and he’s been fine to stand and strike the majority of the time.
His fight with Tafa was the exception where he won the last two rounds via control, but still only went 2/12 on TDs and really showed no urgency to pass or finish that fight.
He was also able to land a TD in the 3rd against Collier and rode out the round, but went 1/3 overall.
Defense wise, I don’t think I’ve seen him officially taken down but against Sayles where he was knocked down twice, he didn’t look good on bottom and eventually just gave up his back getting submitted. Collier was in the process of kimura sweeping him right at the bell of the 3rd as well.
Overall, he’s physically strong and can outwrestle bottom of the barrel heavyweights, but his overall wrestling prowess isn’t anything special and more physical based.
Petersen comes from a wrestling background where he was a 2-time high school state champion in his native Minnesota – he eventually went on to wrestle at North Dakota State and Iowa Central in college.
The large majority of his fights have gone essentially the same way – Petersen looks to time his entries with blast doubles, body lock trips or single legs to get his opponents to the mat early and often.
From there, he’ll look to prioritize wrestling rides to slide to the back of opponents or take mount, where he pounds guys out.
He’s only a BJJ blue belt but was able to pick up his 1st pro win via submission on the Contender Series with a keylock – as noted, he has taken the back before but hasn’t threatened much with submissions.
So, while Peterson has looked largely dominant in his relatively short career, it needs to be noted that he’s largely fought bums who can’t wrestle at all.
But I still do rate Petersen’s wrestling well as one doesn’t wrestle for a D-1 program or one of the best JUCO programs in the nation if they aren’t up to the task.
Defensively, I don’t think I’ve ever seen him shot on, on the bottom or threatened with viable submission attempts so Petersen as a defensive floor commodity is a complete question mark.
Overall, coming from a stronger wrestling background should give Petersen automatic advantages in the UFC because a lot of guys can’t wrestle at the weight class. But we now have a 2-fight sample for him of when he hasn’t been able to just steamroll with his wrestling, he’s lost.
How it plays out: The floor is somewhat interesting here considering both guys haven’t been shot much throughout their pro careers and are largely question marks on the bottom. So, there aren’t many historics to really point to and make super definitive claims. But based on meritocracy and who will be shooting in this matchup, I think most of the upside lies with Petersen. Coupled with Petersen generally being the best wrestler that Usman has fought in his pro career. Usman may just shut him out entirely or largely to where it’s not super relevant but even in looking at Petersen’s two losses, he did win the first couple rounds against Acosta with a wrestling dynamic and arguably could have won the 1st round against Pogues last time out, which would have won him the fight overall.
We’ve got a potentially sloppy curtain jerker this week that I don’t have a super passionate opinion on. But I ultimately come down on the Peterson side for one primary reason and that’s if someone is to “dominate” this fight, I think it’s Peterson. As noted, he may get shut out, but I still think he has a higher ceiling in the matchup whereas if Usman wins, it’s probably a relatively ho hum striking based decision.
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On DraftKings, enjoy playing Usman at 8.8k because that’s where he’s priced, despite being a very slight -130 favorite.
With UFC wins of 85, 79 and 81, it does not seem appealing in any manner to invest in Usman at 8.8k, and I highly doubt the field will do so. Given that this is also Usman’s toughest wrestling opponent to date, he’s probably classified as a pure boom or bust, knockout dependent target who has not shown much striking upside in the past.
Usman is +275 to win ITD and the fight overall is -190 to go the distance, which is a terrible sign for this type of matchup. The most realistic projection for an Usman win is a competitive decision in which he probably fails to reach 10x. I have no plans on prioritizing Usman in any format.
You could pique my interest slightly as a contrarian target, which he should be. But I’m just not the biggest fan of his skills. Anything can happen at HW and there’s enough variance in this division to where I could see random damage occurring, but I wouldn’t be chasing that outcome often with Usman here and he’ll just be a low-end contrarian sprinkle if you have a large portfolio to play with.
Petersen on the other hand is now 7.4k at +115 to win, with a wrestling base. That does intrigue me.
Still, the matchup is quite likely to go the distance and Petersen is only +385 to win ITD. There is not a guarantee of a ceiling here and a tight decision may not lead to an optimal score.
But for win equity purposes and grappling equity, yeah, Petersen does interest me. There are many viable targets in this range so I’d only aim to use Petersen as a secondary target, but he feels like an easy one to roster.
No need to get carried away with this spot but Petersen is a clear DK value with grappling upside, and he warrants near-field exposure or more potentially.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Jandiroba by RNC, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium-Low)