UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. Cortez (7/13/24)
Note: Please read the full analysis, that is much more important than who I pick to win. The confidence relates to my pick to win, not the path to victory. Picks are NOT bets. Matchup breakdowns are written by Brett unless otherwise noted, and all DraftKings analysis is written by Brett. Both Technical Timand Luke Lampe will also contribute to matchup breakdowns.
MAIN CARD
Rose Namajunas vs. Tracy Cortez
Fight Odds: Namajunas -235, Cortez +197
Odds to Finish: +200
DraftKings Salaries: Namajunas 9k, Cortez 7.2k
Weight Class: 125
Another short-notice main event, Tracy Cortez will be stepping in for Maycee Barber on a few weeks’ notice to compete against Rose Namajunas.
Cortez, somewhat surprisingly, hasn’t yet lost in the UFC. She’s 6-0 if you include her DWCS victory over Mariya Agapova, who is also on this card, and she’s beaten other decent names like Jasmine Jasudavicius, Melissa Gatto and Stephanie Egger.
All six of those fights have gone the distance though, and many have been competitive.
Cortez is a base wrestler and averages 2.93 takedowns per 15 minutes, but she’s not the most effective submission grappler, and generally has more success via control.
Similarly, I wouldn’t say Cortez is a very effective striker, but she throws enough volume with her hands to keep rounds competitive.
Cortez currently lands 4.11 sig. strikes per minute, while absorbing 2.79 per minute with a 60 percent defensive rate. She actually lands 6.1 per minute at distance, with a +0.7 differential, but only 43 percent of her fights actually play out at distance.
In total, Cortez is pretty decent at winning rounds. She produces enough offense and is a competent wrestler, but her lack of real finishing equity will very likely prevent her from pulling away against good competition. She’s also not GREAT at anything, in comparison to some of the top skills in the division.
Rose Namajunas has had a long UFC tenure, and my main question at this stage of her career is whether she really cares anymore.
Rose is well-rounded. She’s experienced. She can fight for five rounds. She trains in Denver at elevation and will be in front of a home crowd.
But I doubt her motivation is the same as it once was. Her championship days are likely behind her.
That really won’t affect my analysis of the matchup, but it’s just a singular thought I have with Rose. She debuted in the UFC in 2014..
I also can’t say I’ve ever been the highest on Rose’s skills.. though she too is competent everywhere, a decent round-winner and a better finisher than Cortez.
Her volume isn’t great though. She lands 3.69 sig. strikes per minute. In five-round fights, Namajunas has landed 57, 105, 86, 37 and 93 sig. strikes. That’s actually quite poor..
She does only absorb 3.51 per minute with a 63 percent striking defense, so she’s generally not falling behind on volume.
She’s got a pretty good kicking game and can fight at range with her hands. Not elite power but better than average. Her and Cortez are the exact same size for what it’s worth.
As a grappler, Rose lands 1.38 takedowns per 15 minutes and defends at 59 percent. She rarely lands more than one takedown per fight and she’s only topped two takedowns in a fight one time.
The defense is concerning too. She’s not great at defending takedowns. Zhang and Ribas took her down five times and four times respectively. It definitely feels fair to project Cortez to land takedowns, and probably multiple. 2-4 with upside over five rounds seems fair.
And with standard boxing volume from Cortez, it feels fair to project this fight to be close overall.
I do think Rose has advantages in the effectiveness of her style, as well as being at home in Denver on a full camp. Those advantages potentially could swing the fight fairly far in her favor.
Numbers definitely point to it being a competitive fight though. Rose is a more effective striker, especially at kicking distance, but her lack of volume is a concern and Cortez will be throwing punches back.
Cortez is the more likely of the two to land takedowns, and you have to project some. I do doubt that she can do much with them though. Rose is a good scrambler and BJJ player and could potentially reverse or threaten Cortez. So although I expect more Cortez in top position, it may not even be a real advantage for her.
If Rose gets on top, she could potentially take the back and find a submission. That outcome seems possible to me.
The fight is -280 over 4.5 rounds though and in an extended fight, I do think it’s likely rounds are competitive. While I’ll favor Rose to pull ahead, it’s tough to feel extremely confident in backing her, especially at her moneyline.
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On DraftKings, Namajunas is priced up to 9k and on a larger slate, I wouldn’t have much interest in her.
There are some question marks up top and Namajunas will still carry a pretty strong floor over five rounds. She could land 100-120 strikes + 2 takedowns, and potentially secure a finish.
Something around 100 points feels fair.
I don’t know if she has elite upside though, in the 125 point range for example. She has a 142-pointer (against Paige VanZant in 2015), and a 119-pointer against Michelle Waterson in 2017. Otherwise, her scores have been 105, 101, 102, 107 and 103.
In a matchup where she likely does not have the pure wrestling advantage, I am a little concerned about her reaching a ceiling. Again, in a fight that’s likely to go the distance at -260.
In a decision, Namajunas probably produces enough offense to score well, but falling near or below the 100 point mark is well within the range of outcomes. She also has two five-rounders in which she scored 79 and 50 (if you give her the win against Esparza). So a complete bust is within the range of outcomes too, though my guess is this will be faster paced enough to limit that possibility.
Overall, I consider Namajunas a fine target. I don’t love her and I don’t love her at this price. I have some matchup and ceiling concerns with a poor +230 ITD line. But I do favor her to win and in a win, 25 minutes of action gives her a moderate floor/ceiling combination.
Cortez at 7.2k is the best cheap floor option on the slate, on paper.
The fight is quite likely to go the distance, and Cortez produces a decent amount of offense, in a matchup where she’s projected to have a wrestling edge. She could easily score 60 in a loss.
That alone gives her merit on this short slate. There are many competitive fights on the slate though, so I am not leaning into floor as much here as I may on other slates.
Cortez is still an easy pay down option in cash games, and there’s some chance that she could be optimal even in a loss, if other dogs nearby don’t win. Plus, it’s possible she actually pulls off the upset and scores 90-100 points, or more.
That floor/price combination in a matchup that could stay competitive certainly keeps me more interested in Cortez than I might have thought at first glance.
The other side is that she’s very unlikely to win ITD at +850. There could be cardio concerns on short notice at elevation. She could be more popular than she’s worth being in the main event.
And there are other competitive fights nearby. There are even a couple intriguing leverage/contrarian options in this bottom tier as well, so I don’t think you have to force yourself onto Cortez for floor alone.
Still, when I need to pay down, I will consider Cortez and I expect she’ll give me a decent result. If I want to aim to be unique, there are other viable pivot options that carry more risk, but possibly bigger rewards.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Namajunas by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Santiago Ponzinibbio vs. Muslim Salikhov
Fight Odds: Ponzinibbio -196, Salikhov +167
Odds to Finish: -150
DraftKings Salaries: Ponzinibbio 8.8k, Salikhov 7.4k
Weight Class: 170
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a battle between two middle class UFC veterans here as Muslim Salikhov will take on Santiago Ponzinibbio.
Salikhov is a kung fu specialist and thrives as a kickboxer. I am a little concerned about his age as he is now 40 years old, and he was recently knocked out by Li Jingliang and Randy Brown. I just never like older fighters getting knocked out as it probably has a compounding impact on their durability going forward. So that is a concern I have for Salikhov.
Salikhov is still skilled and explosive as a striker. He lands 3.36 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.94 in return. He defends strikes at a very good 62 percent. He is a technical and fast twitched striker. He uses spinning techniques which I am generally not a fan of. However, he seems reasonably selective with them which is fine.
I do think Salikhov is powerful and capable of hurting opponents. He has a knockout or knockdown in four of his last nine fights. He is definitely dangerous. I also think he is hard to hit and manages distance well.
However, I really do worry about his volume. 3.36 significant strikes per minute is not a lot. He has landed 40, 62, 63, and 57 significant strikes in his four UFC decisions. I have seen worse volume but that isn’t great. Put it this way, if he doesn’t hurt his opponents, he is going to be in close fights.
Salikhov isn’t that great of a wrestler either. He lands 1.27 takedowns per 15 minutes which is fine. However, I don’t expect him to really outwrestle any decent grapplers. He defends takedowns at a good 73 percent and has good first layer TDD. However, I do worry about his grappling game if he actually gets grounded. Alex Garcia dominated him on the mat in Salikhov’s debut, so it will always be in the back of my mind.
Salikhov will be taking on UFC veteran Santiago Ponzinibbio. Ponz is on a bit of a tough run in his career. He is 37 now and I do think his best days are behind him. He has lost three of his last four fights, but they have come against good competition.
Ponz is almost exclusively a striker. He lands 4.90 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.67 in return. He defends strikes at a decent 61 percent. He has a good jab and damaging leg kicks. He is a competent and skilled striker, and can compete in the middle class of this division. He has been knocked out three times in his UFC career and I have generally considered his durability fine, but it is worrying me more and more.
Ponz doesn’t grapple much. He only lands 0.48 takedowns per 15 minutes and isn’t an offensive wrestling threat. He defends takedowns at 60 percent and does scramble up pretty well.
I think these two are going to strike as neither wrestles much, and both have good enough defensive wrestling. I think I favor Ponz a bit because of youth and volume upside. Ponz is aging but he is still four years younger than Salikhov and is generally the busier party in striking exchanges. I also probably trust Ponz’s durability a bit more at this point of these guys’ careers as well.
I still don’t think Salikhov is outmatched. He is still a decent striker, and I absolutely think he could hurt Ponz. However, I don’t trust the volume of Salikhov. So I am going to go with Ponz to win as he is a bit younger and has a higher ceiling in significant strikes.
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On DraftKings, Ponzinibbio is priced up to 8.8k and I expect he’ll be a knockout or bust target at this price.
I think he has mild wrestling equity, but it’s hard to project more than a takedown and I don’t think that will be Ponzi’s primary game plan. His volume is strong, but Salikhov will look to limit engagements and I think that will limit the volume upside of Ponz in the matchup.
So that just leaves him with knockout equity, which I do think Ponz has. He’s +145 to win ITD and Salikhov has been knocked out in two of his past three losses. Clearly, Ponz can win this fight by knockout.
On a slate with questionable elite options, I am actually somewhat open to playing Ponzinibbio this week. Granted, he’s boom or bust, and there’s always heavy risk with those types, but I do think it’s a matchup where he can reach a ceiling.
He’s priced down into the upper 8k range, against a 40-year-old opponent with recent KO losses. Not sure it’s worth jamming him in every chance you get, but I don’t mind having exposure to Ponzinibbio this week and I don’t hate being a bit over the market on him within this range.
Salikhov at 7.4k interests me less. I suppose there’s a similar argument for him in that he has some KO equity against an aging opponent with recent KO losses.
The difference is that Salikhov throws strikes at a really low rate, so I’d lean toward a KO victory for him being a more random occurrence. Ponzinibbio has been in wars with high-level guys recently too, so it’s not as if his durability is a disaster.
Salikhov is +280 to win ITD, which is fine for the price. I don’t expect him to be highly owned.
For pure KO upside, sure, Salikhov is in play. There’s a ton of variance in striking exchanges, so even if I perceive Salikhov needing some luck to hit his ceiling, that’s still a possible outcome. He’s a fine, low-end, boom or bust secondary target.
I do favor Ponzinibbio in the matchup overall and I likely won’t end up with much exposure to Salikhov myself.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Ponzinibbio by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium)
Drew Dober vs. Jean Silva
Fight Odds: Silva -112, Dober -102
Odds to Finish: -300
DraftKings Salaries: Dober 8.2k, Silva 8k
Weight Class: 155
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have an absolute banger on our hands here as Jean Silva will be stepping up on short notice from featherweight to lightweight to take on the always exciting Drew Dober. Silva just fought and knocked out Charles Jourdain on June 29th, so I am sure he is in shape and ready to go.
I have been skeptical of Jean Silva. I didn’t pick him to win the Charles Jourdain fight, but he put on a good performance and hurt Jourdain several times before eventually knocking him out. It was definitely a good performance and made me respect Silva more in striking matchups.
Silva booked his ticket to the UFC by winning on the Contender Series with a striking based decision. He outlanded his opponent 87-71 in significant strikes and landed the heavier shots in the matchup. He then knocked out Westin Wilson in round one in his UFC debut.
Silva is mostly a power striker. I consider him to have good hands and he has some power in the pocket. I definitely think he can continue to knock out fighters at this level. I like his aggression at times too and he can use it to make opponents uncomfortable.
However, I still question this guy’s quality of competition to a degree and want to see more of him. Silva has really only beaten Charles Jourdain. I am also not sure he is great defensively as a striker either. He looks susceptible to kicks. He also doesn’t look to wrestle offensively, so he is limited to striking as a path to victory.
Furthermore, there is not a ton of tape on Silva regionally. However, I found his most recent loss where he was easily outwrestled and mounted for entire rounds. The bout took place in 2018 so perhaps he has improved. However, we haven’t seen much of his defensive grappling, and we have never seen it vs any good grapplers. My guess is that he will get exposed on the mat at some point. Even Jourdain landed a couple of takedowns on him.
I definitely am still a bit skeptical of Silva and I absolutely think he will get exposed on the mat at some point. However, I do think he is UFC level as far as a striker goes, and he could give a lot of people problems there. The Jourdain win was a good one. I still just want to collect more data on him.
Silva will be taking on UFC veteran Drew Dober. Drew Dober is a pretty solid fighter. He is decently well-rounded and always fights hard. His strength is probably his striking. He lands 4.34 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.23 in return. He defends strikes at 51 percent.
Those aren’t incredible metrics. However, he has fought some good guys, is battle tested, and is definitely an above-average striker in this weight class.
Dober fights at a high pace on the feet. Dober has quick straight punches and packs some decent power. Eight of his last 10 wins have actually come by knockout.
His other two wins came by decision where he landed 60 and 145 significant strikes, respectively. I like Dober on the feet personally. He has KO equity and has volume upside as well. He is also tough as nails and has only been knocked out twice in 36 professional fights. That is pretty impressive durability given the battles that Dober has been in.
I still kind of worry about Dober getting knocked out again though. He was just knocked out against Matt Frevola. Furthermore, both Riddell and McKinney hurt him in recent fights. Both of those guys are dangerous so it wasn’t an awful look or anything. However, I do think the fact that Dober is simply hittable is what concerns me.
Dober is an okay wrestler. He lands 0.71 takedowns per 15 minutes and can take down weak grapplers. He sneakily attempts about five takedowns per fight but is always fighting good wrestlers, so he hasn’t dominated with grappling for a long time.
Dober defends takedowns at 56 percent. He has also been submitted four times in the UFC which is a concern. I do think Dober is at least competent defensively as a grappler though. He scrambles up from his back pretty well.
As far as this matchup goes, I think this is a firefight on the feet. Both guys are super dangerous so variance is certainly in play, which makes it tough to be confident in. It is hard to even know who to favor standing.
I lean towards Dober because he is just so much more experienced than Silva. He is also going to be bigger than Silva. However, I won’t lie when I say that Silva’s power and Dober’s recent durability issues concern me. Silva knocking Dober dead wouldn’t surprise me.
I actually think Dober has sneaky grappling upside here though which gives him more paths to victory, so I am actually going to pick Dober to win. Silva looked seriously bad on the mat in the regionals and he was taken down at the end of round one vs Jourdain, and he very well could have been held down. I really do think Dober could use his size and experience and land takedowns here.
Am I counting on it? No, Dober honestly will probably just stand and bang. However, it is possible which makes me want to lean toward Dober a bit.
This is a fun one, and I kind of just want to sit it out from a betting perspective. The fight standing screams variance, and I am not sure Dober will optimize his path to victory. I also just want to see more of Silva. This is pass city for me, but it should be a fun one.
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On DraftKings, I can’t say I’m particularly excited at the potential of losing more money on Jean Silva, who I was not high on in that matchup against Jourdain.
I didn’t think he looked incredible.. but he did hurt Jourdain several times and clearly his power needs to be respected. I’m just not sure if the depth is there and I hate overreacting to early KOs.
Dober is so experienced, and has beaten and knocked out some really good competition like Bobby Green and Haqparast, and he’s the more clear lightweight of the two.
Still, getting KOd by Matt Frevola is a pretty bad look in my opinion, and the recent damage Tim mentioned scares me as well. I’m just not totally sure how to play it.
I personally am not likely to be high on Silva again at 8k. I’d rather keep losing money fading him than chase losses. I’m also worried about the field being too high on him given the recent 104/115 point scores, especially with the betting line flipping toward him again.
If I had to give out a recommendation though, it would probably be to come in around the field, or perhaps a bit underweight. He’s +115 to win ITD which is great. He’s got power. These guys might bang it out. There’s certainly an upside case here.
The potential chalk is somewhat gross but I understand buying in with a larger portfolio.
Dober at 8.2k is a bit tough as well. I suppose if I am not going to be high on Silva personally, I should end up with a fair amount of Dober as this fight is -300 to end inside the distance.
I am nervous that Dober is boom or bust and I’m not sold he just KOs Silva quickly either. I agree on the wrestling upside that Tim mentioned but no guarantee that happens or that he pursues it aggressively. I honestly would not be shocked at an extended fight here, even if it’s fun early, and a sub-optimal DK score.
Dober is +170 to win ITD though which is fine. He clearly has KO upside within his style and it’s not a terrible matchup. I don’t mind being above the field on him if the public will be scared off, but you certainly do not have to be.
It makes sense to have exposure to this matchup given the odds to end ITD, but there are both boom and bust cases, and I don’t feel comfortable enough to take a heavy stand on any side.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Dober by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Gabriel Bonfim vs. Ange Loosa
Fight Odds: Bonfim -340, Loosa +271
Odds to Finish: -210
DraftKings Salaries: Bonfim 9.3k, Loosa 6.9k
Weight Class: 170
A battle for redemption – both Gabriel Bonfim and Ange Loosa are coming off less than stellar performances, and will be looking to get their hands raised on Saturday in what could be an explosive contest.
Bonfim finally got exposed after a dominant first few fights in the promotion (UFC + DWCS), where he’d finished all three of his opponents inside the first round.
An explosive boxer with an opportunistic submission game, it was difficult to poke holes in Bonfim who had never lost, nor had gone the distance in 15 pro fights. He had nearly secured his 16th win too, over Nicolas Dalby, landing 30 strikes and a takedown in that first round.
Unfortunately, as is typical with that style, we found out that Bonfim cannot carry his explosive actions for a full fight. Dalby simply survived, pushed forward in the clinch, and broke Bonfim toward the end of the second round.
It certainly puts a pause in the hype train of Bonfim, though he’s a heavy favorite once again this weekend. It seems clear that he’s a capable striker with early knockout ability, and a capable wrestling/submission game that should continue to lead him to some fun finishes.
But until he can prove his worth over a 15-minute bout, it’s easy to believe he will continue to struggle, or fold, once fights get extended.
Ange Loosa is looking for a different type of redemption, coming off a NC against Bryan Battle where Loosa was getting largely beaten up for the first six minutes. He declared he was unable to see after getting briefly poked in the eye, and Battle wasn’t happy.
This led to Loosa screaming that he was going to kill Battle, and the two nearly fought after the No Contest had been declared. Battle and Bisping tore Loosa apart on the mic as well.
Loosa was pretty clearly looking for a way out there, and he got it. The UFC haven’t done him major favors by booking him against Bonfim for his return.
Excluding that bout against Battle though, I’ve been somewhat impressed with what Loosa has brought to the table. Especially in his ability to produce a lot of offense over three rounds. I just love guys who do stuff.
Loosa has done a lot of stuff in his UFC career, to the tune of 129 sig. strikes and two takedowns in his win over Fletcher, and 98 sig. strikes and six takedowns in his win against McKee.
That kind of pace and ability to mix in wrestling gives me some confidence that Loosa can continue to win rounds at this level.
The counter argument is twofold. Neither Fletcher nor McKee are great talents, so beating them and producing lots of offense is probably a trap in that Loosa is less likely to find the same result against better competition.
The scarier part is that against both Fletcher and McKee, Loosa had stretches where he was badly beaten up, and nearly knocked out. He has never been finished by knockout or submission in 13 pro fights, and I respect his ability to fight through adversity, but he honestly barely escaped losses in both of those contests, not to mention the one against Battle.
Against Fletcher, it came in round two, and against McKee, it came in round three. It’s led to some poor overall metrics with Loosa absorbing 6.67 significant strikes per minute.
My guess is that it’s an issue tied to both his cardio and striking defense. He is a physical fighter, and fighting at a high pace makes you tired. That’s understandable. I am not completely convinced that better opponents can’t just take the momentum Loosa concedes, and use it to finish him completely.
That’s where Bonfim fits in best. He has the tools to finish opponents, and so if Loosa gives him any momentum, I expect Bonfim to capitalize.
Early on, I could see the boxing and pressure of Bonfim giving Loosa trouble. I could see Bonfim landing a takedown and working for a submission. It seems reasonable to believe that the danger Bonfim possesses will be enough for him to hurt Loosa and find a finish.
On the flip side, Bonfim is now fighting at elevation. He’s coming off his first pro loss. I’m not sure how this will affect him.
He certainly didn’t have the cardio to fight a hard two rounds against Dalby last time out. Will he suddenly have the energy to fight for 15 minutes on Saturday? It’s hard to project that. It feels more likely that if the fight gets past the halfway mark, Bonfim will be toast.
While Loosa isn’t better than Bonfim, he clearly has a path to victory here over an extended period. He can throw strikes at a moderate pace, and he’s averaging more than two takedowns per 15 minutes. If Bonfim cannot defend himself, like what we saw against Dalby, Loosa absolutely can capitalize on that.
And even with potential cardio issues on the Loosa side, he’s gone the distance many times. He has to be favored to produce more offense down the stretch.
It really makes me uncomfortable with the betting line, despite the early danger that Bonfim possesses. He might very well be dependent on early success, and while that seems possible here, Loosa’s long history of durability at least gives him a reasonable path to a comeback on paper.
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On DraftKings, Bonfim is now the second most expensive fighter on the board at 9.3k, and his finishing style will always put him squarely in play.
He scored 119 and 97 in his two wins, and his win condition is largely based on early finishing ability. He is -175 to win ITD here which is the best line on the slate, and I expect him to be a popular pay-up target.
On the other hand, we literally just saw what happens when Bonfim cannot secure an early finish. Not only would he have a bust expectation in an extended fight, but it’s quite possible he will outright lose.
Still, the other names at the top of the board this week aren’t necessarily safe ones either. With a heavy ITD line, and a large highlight reel of quick finishes, Bonfim is going to rate out as one of the better tournament options on the slate.
Loosa is priced at 6.9k and I honestly think he’s in play as well. He can produce a lot of offense per round, and he’s fighting an opponent with a very questionable gas tank, at elevation. Plus, he’s likely to offer extreme leverage against Bonfim.
I don’t expect Loosa to be unowned, but there will likely be many other priorities for the public this week. On a short slate, targeting some Loosa is one intriguing way to be unique.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Bonfim by TKO, RD 1 (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Julian Erosa vs. Christian Rodriguez
Fight Odds: Rodriguez -232, Erosa +194
Odds to Finish: +100
DraftKings Salaries: Rodriguez 8.9k, Erosa 7.3k
Weight Class: 145
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
I am actually excited to see this matchup between Christian Rodriguez and Julian Erosa.
I feel like Rodriguez has been matched up against offensive grapplers for so long that it will be nice to see him fight a guy like Erosa who is more of a freestyle fighter.
I just consider Rodriguez a well-rounded scrapper who is capable of neutralizing opponents in all areas. He is a pretty decent striker. He lands 3.45 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.28 in return and defends strikes at 57 percent. I think his striking is totally fine. He has decent boxing and can mix in some kicks as well. He also defends his head well statistically.
Rodriguez is also a capable grappler and resistor. He lands 1.14 takedowns per 15 minutes and defends takedowns at 66 percent. Rodriguez isn’t perfect as a defensive grappler. He can be taken down here and there and surrendered six takedowns to Jonathan Pearce. However, he does defend takedown decently and is super seasoned at reversing positions on the mat, and making his opponents consistently work. He is honestly just super difficult to keep on the mat.
He has beaten multiple good grapplers like Isaac Dulgarian and Raul Rosas Jr. by resisting.
Rodriguez also just has good cardio and even won round three against Pearce. Rodriguez is just good enough offensively and defensively to tire opponents out and overwhelm them.
Rodriguez will be taking on Julian Erosa. Julian Erosa made me look REALLY dumb a few fights ago against Hakeem Dawodu. I played Dawodu and Erosa absolutely dominated him by hurting him and getting his back several times. It wasn’t something I was really expecting, but I won’t underestimate Erosa again.
I still feel like this is going to be a fighter in Erosa who I consistently pick incorrectly. When I pick him to win, he will probably get knocked out. When I pick him to lose, he will probably win an easy decision. I did at least pick him in his last fight against Ricardo Ramos, which he won by submission.
Erosa lands 6.14 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 6.29 in return. He only defends strikes at 47 percent. So his fights are chaotic. He lands a lot and gets hit a lot which is a recipe for chaos.
Erosa has a tremendous pace. He actually outlanded Charles Jourdain (who I consider a pretty decent striker) 103-85 in significant strikes before submitting him with a D’Arce choke. It was a pretty impressive performance to me. He also had a similar performance against Sean Woodson where he landed 103 significant strikes before obtaining a choke. The pace in both of those fights was absolutely insane.
My issue with Erosa’s striking is that his fights are chaotic and high-variance. He lands a ton of strikes and absorbs a lot of them as well. So random shit can happen in his fights and either guy can get hurt at any point, which is hard to predict who it will be (often it’s Erosa).
Erosa also doesn’t have a great chin either. He has been knocked out five times since 2018. So he is always in danger to lose by knockout, even if he is a better striker because he is just in chaotic fights in general. He just got knocked out again recently by Alex Caceres and Fernando Padilla which makes me even more nervous picking his fights.
Erosa is still a capable striker though. He beat the guys that I mentioned above and he also got the better of Dawodu on the feet by outlanding him 59-57, and hurting him at one point.
Erosa is also a capable grappler. He lands 1.63 takedowns per 15 minutes which is decent. He is really sneaky with his transitional chokes and can absolutely choke guys dead when they try to scramble back up to their feet. He choked out Jourdain and Woodson in similar ways with a D’Arce. He also showed good body triangle usage to control Dawodu. It was a good look for him.
Erosa defends takedowns at 58 percent which is okay. However, he does scramble up decently and I really only expect good wrestlers to take him down and hold him down for full rounds.
Look, I think the best way to describe Erosa is good but untrustworthy. He is good. He is well-rounded, has cardio, etc. However, he has a terrible chin and he is never a lock to win any fight ever.
As far as this matchup goes, it is interesting because Rodriguez has generally been fighting guys who have just tried to grapple him. He has basically defended guys until they have tired out, and then beat them up. Erosa isn’t just going to try to wrestle at a high pace. Erosa doesn’t ever gas either.
I honestly don’t know if Rodriguez is a better round winner than Erosa from a striking or grappling perspective. If Erosa stays conscious, I definitely think Erosa can remain competitive with Rodriguez throughout. I also just don’t think Rodriguez can gas Erosa out like previous opponents.
The difference maker here is durability though. Rodriguez seems tough as nails, while a gust of wind can basically hurt Erosa at this point. That is why I am leaning towards Rodriguez to win here. If anyone gets hurt, it will probably be Erosa. If anyone gets knocked out, it will probably be Erosa. So I have to pick the more durable fighter in Rodriguez here. He always has that random big moment in his back pocket.
I like this fight though, and I do think Erosa can potentially test Rodriguez. Erosa is probably going to make Rodriguez win in a way we generally have not seen from Rodriguez yet. So I am excited to see it and this should be a good one as Erosa always brings it.
—
On DraftKings, this is a tough one because Rodriguez isn’t the typical type of fighter I would target at an expensive price.
He’s 8.9k and has never reached 100 DK points. A couple of his decision wins have scored 65 and 71 as well, so his floor is not strong.
The primary counter is that Erosa pushes a decent pace, and typically gets murdered in a minute or two when he loses. His durability is probably some of the worst I’ve ever seen in the UFC and we’ve already capitalized on it multiple times.
That’s not to say he always gets knocked out – he doesn’t – and when he stays conscious, he’s a fine fighter. But he can be hurt by just about anyone.
Rodriguez has no knockdowns in the UFC, but I definitely think he could hurt Erosa. I also like the fact that Rodriguez has great cardio and defensive scrambling, so his opportunity to hurt Erosa won’t be limited to just those early minutes.
It’s still likely a boom or bust scenario. Rodriguez is only +150 to win ITD. I think if he wins at all though, hurting Erosa is pretty realistic.
It’s a weird fighter to target at an expensive price tag, who has never reached a real tournament winning ceiling before. This may be the spot for him though, and I think I’d like some exposure. He’s certainly not a bad pivot off the top range, especially if he projects to be lower owned.
Erosa is priced at 7.3k which is what he cost when we targeted him last time against Ramos, a fight Erosa won by first-round sub. Ramos quits a lot though, which is partially why I wanted to target Erosa in that spot.
Rodriguez is the opposite of a quitter and not someone on paper who I think Erosa will have an easy time dealing with. Erosa is +525 to win ITD here too which isn’t great.
It’s tough because round per round, Erosa should still compete with Rodriguez. He could take him down a couple of times. He could land a bunch of strikes. He could squeak out two rounds.
I think Erosa is fine at 7.3k because of that logic, but I suppose I lean slightly toward him being a floor based option than a ceiling option.
I don’t expect to be heavy on Erosa and won’t really aim to prioritize him in this range, but he has some secondary merit as a fighter who could win a moderately paced decision, with mild wrestling equity.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Rodriguez by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Low)
Abdul Razak Alhassan vs. Cody Brundage
Fight Odds: Alhassan -169, Brundage +145
Odds to Finish: -450
DraftKings Salaries: Alhassan 8.5k, Brundage 7.7k
Weight Class: 185
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Cody Brundage is a Contender Series alum from the 2020 season who’s managed to keep a roster spot longer than expected – he’s 4-5 in the UFC and 10-6 as a pro. Abdul Razak Alhassan is entering his 9th year on the active roster, with a UFC run to be best described as consistently inconsistent, similar to his counterpart – he’s 6-6 in the promotion and 12-6 as a pro.
The striking component:
Brundage’s time at space in his pro career hasn’t been vast, so it’s still a bit difficult to gauge him as a striker.
His boxing is okay but relatively basic, where he largely throws in just jabs, overhands and the occasional leg kick.
He has five pro wins via KO/TKO and will commit to his overhand right where he KO’d Gore and dropped Vieira, but he hasn’t shown much in terms of stringing stuff together.
We did see some extended exchanges between him and Kropschot in his last LFA fight where he did get the better of the exchange, but was also getting hit cleanly as well by a base jiu-jitsu guy which wasn’t the best of looks. Brundage struggled with the jab specifically.
He dropped his DWCS fight via strikes to William Knight but they were downward elbows against the fence when he was attempting a TD – a tad memey but also horrible fight IQ as his coaches were yelling at him to adjust his head positioning – he didn’t and was finished as a result.
We also saw him take significant damage in similar positions against Dalcha in that fight but he was able to survive the barrage
Overall, he’s serviceable on the feet but still hasn’t fought many good “pure” strikers or spent extensive time with the better ones at space.
Alhassan’s largely fallen into the meme category as a historic power puncher who’s been reliant on early KOs throughout his career.
For context, all 12 of his pro wins come via KO with 11 in the 1st round – his last win being the exception where he KO’d Ribeiro 28 seconds into the 2nd round.
What I will say though is that Alhassan has dialed it back a bit in comparison to the earlier portions of his UFC run where he would just go life and death right from the opening bell.
So it’s nice to see a bit more composure from him, but it’s also a situation where I’m not sure that overtly helps him because he’s still not a consistent minute winner.
In fairness, the guys to more clearly best him on the feet were Lazzez, Williams, Buckley and Pyfer – all forgivable.
He’s not very good defensively but has gotten better and has historically been a durable guy who can take shots though.
Overall, despite me not rating him highly as an overall striker, he’s incredibly dangerous and is one of those fighters that has that “anomalous Derrick Lewis esque” power that needs to be given respect.
How it plays out: Despite me not being the biggest Alhassan supporter in terms of winning minutes, Brundage hasn’t really shown he can win them either over extended exchanges. So really it comes down to speed, athleticism and raw power which I feel all go to Alhassan. At the same time, Brundage has shown some explosive tendencies at times as well too, but I think it would be a bad idea to sit and swing heavies with Alhassan in this spot.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Brundage comes from a DII collegiate wrestling background.
In that, he’s shown decent TD concepts and general positional control when he chooses to solidify positions.
He’s got a handful of arm triangles, did submit Kropschot with one who is a brown belt, which was somewhat impressive and did score a nice guillotine in his outing against Dalcha. I’m still not a huge fan of jumping guillotine though as it’s largely a lower percentage attempt.
However, I don’t think he’s got any official BJJ credentials.
In that Krop fight as well, he was threatened with a Buggy Choke (unique submission) and did defend it properly – more so him listening to his coaches in that scenario than anything because at first, I don’t think he knew what to do – but props nonetheless working out.
He also had Knight mounted back on DWCS.
In general, his offensive wrestling/grappling has played a good part in his success to date.
Defensively, he’s had his issue despite providing resistance.
He ultimately got grinded out by Maximov in his debut but didn’t get finished and showed good submission defense – however he got put into dominant position multiple times.
He lost position against Michal and got pounded out in the guard – not the best of looks as he didn’t look particularly comfortable in that position.
Against Vieira, he stuffed 6/7 TDs but did get his back taken at the end of the 1st. Then Brundage decided to jump a guillotine in the 2nd round which put him on bottom, ultimately leading to him getting subbed. That was easily a top 5 most bonehead IQ decision of recent, in jumping a guillotine on a world champion black belt.
He jumped guillotines in all three rounds against Dumas and got controlled for the bulk of the fight – not a great look. Malkoun was grinding on him prior to the DQ and more recently got out wrestled and submitted by Nickal – no shame.
Overall, I think he’s a decent offensive wrestler and serviceable grappler who’s physically strong but his last six losses have also come on the ground or in the clinch where he’s honestly beaten himself in many of these scenarios with low IQ decisions.
Alhassan comes from a judo background where he holds a black belt in the discipline, but it hasn’t been on display much from an offensive perspective over the course of his UFC run, only landing TDs in three fights.
But we did see him realize meaningful success in the 3rd round against a more tired Buckley, winning that round and ending the fight on top, landing some GNP.
It’s the defensive wrestling that’s given him issues over the years and played a factor in his losses.
He was taken down six times by Akhmedov, four times by Lazzez, eight times by Malkoun, five times by Buckley and three times by Pyfer where he was eventually submitted.
In his defense, he avoided extensive control in all of those fights except the one against Malkoun who we now know is a pretty strong grinder.
I’d also say that his get up game appears to have evolved over the years and despite getting grinded out by Malkoun, he still stuffed 16 other shots.
But nonetheless, the floor is definitely more of a pro than a con for Alhassan.
How it plays out: This is where there is more merit to the Brundage side despite some of his own struggles on the bottom. He is the better offensive wrestler here and given the matchup, I’d assume he’s going to be wrestling. The problem is that I think Alhassan’s get-up game has evolved and Brundage hasn’t shown he can wrestle anyone extended at the UFC level without being finished, reversed or putting himself back on the bottom. So, despite the path being there for him on paper, it’s tough to trust him at all over extended minutes, coupled with what happens if he gets put on his back and just accepts positions like he did against Dumas who’s not a very good wrestler. Nonetheless, I lean to more ground upside with Brundage in a vacuum primarily based on pursuit with some submission upside sprinkled in.
Weird fight between two guys who haven’t been the most trustworthy parties. The most comparable past fight in relation to this one would probably be Brundage vs Dalcha – considering Dalcha’s a base judo guy that also happens to be explosive and a KO artist. Brundage ultimately won that fight via guillotine but was getting his ass kicked prior and hail mary jumped it. If he doesn’t get that, he gets finished. Brundage just doesn’t handle adversity well at all and I don’t think that’s a good characteristic to have against a guy in Alhassan. I like Alhassan to put him down but I think he can win minutes in this fight as well, contrary to popular belief.
—
On DraftKings, I can’t say I’m sure how this fight will play out but I do think it’s one of the better matchups on paper.
I quite like Alhassan in this fight, although he’s a clear boom or bust candidate, I feel that he’s very capable of booming. Brundage just does not handle adversity well and he doesn’t have strong cardio.
I think there’s a very decent chance he’s forced to strike, gets hurt, and quits. And it probably comes in round one, or maybe round two. Alhassan is -140 to win ITD.
I guess at 8.5k, that could make him very popular. Or only semi-popular, as his recent box scores aren’t amazing. We have multiple betting lines falling within this price tier though, so I wouldn’t be shocked if Alhassan ultimately ends up as a stand out.
You should not have faith in Alhassan in an extended matchup, so his window to reach a ceiling is still slim. But I think he has a lot of KO equity here and at worst, I’d want to be in near the field. I personally may be overweight.
Brundage at 7.7k is fine. I just do not like the guy or the talent, so I’m probably going to be stubborn and not buy in too much.
I do think he has a huge ceiling though. If he wins, it probably comes with grappling and an early finish. I’m really not sure if he can even fight three hard rounds at the moment. It in theory gives him a thin window as well, but I just don’t think this fight will be competitive.
Either Alhassan will hurt him badly early, or Brundage will do the same, or more likely grapple and dive on subs. If he fails doing that, Alhassan probably just finishes him anyways.
It could be messy, and a decision might be ugly to watch, but the fight is -150 Under 1.5 rounds so it feels like a good spot to target.
Brundage has clear upside at 7.7k and could even be the outright preferred option if you believe in him. He’s +225 to win ITD and I’d like some exposure. Being near the field or over here too could be smart.
I definitely prefer the Alhassan side but this is one of my favorite fights to target on paper for early finishing expectations.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Alhassan by KO, RD 1 (Confidence=Low)
UNDERCARD
Joshua Van vs. Charles Johnson
Fight Odds: Van -245, Johnson +204
Odds to Finish: +215
DraftKings Salaries: Van 8.7k, Johnson 7.5k
Weight Class: 125
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a pretty fun fight on the prelims here as fun prospect Joshua Van will bang it out with Charles Johnson.
I was actually impressed with Joshua Van’s last performances against Kevin Borjas and Felipe Bunes. Van won by decision against Borjas and put on a high striking pace, landing 156 significant strikes.
He also gas pedaled Felipe Bunes and finished him with a high striking pace. Van’s UFC debut came one fight before that one against Zhalgas Zhumagulov where Van won a close decision and landed 120 significant strikes.
I liked the dosage of strikes by Van in those fights and that is what Van does best. He is a volume striker and will strike with a very high pace for 15 straight minutes. He lands 9.08 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 5.77 in return and actually defends strikes at a solid 60 percent rate. Van is overall just a pretty skilled striker.
He mixes up kicks with his boxing and he works the body well with his hands. He can have success at range in this division. I also consider Van durable as well, and I haven’t really seen him hurt before and he has never been knocked out.
I have also seen Van mix in takedowns here and there. He isn’t a good wrestler, but he honestly isn’t bad, and he can get good positions on the mat after tiring his opponents.
Van’s defensive grappling looks to be his biggest issue. His one loss came a little over two years ago. He was generally outwrestled and then submitted by a RNC in the third round. He is only 22 years old now and was only 20 in that fight, and he has clearly improved though. He still was mounted at one point vs Felipe Bunes and surrendered two takedowns in that fight. Bunes just gassed out clearly.
Van will be taking on UFC veteran Charles Johnson who just won a fun fight against Jake Hadley. Johnson is 4-4 in the UFC and I mostly consider him a striker. He attempts takedowns here and there. However, I don’t expect offensive wrestling to be a path to victory for him at this level.
I think Johnson is best as a striker. He is actually a decent boxer, and I do think he is slick from time to time with his hands. He lands 4.48 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.16 in return. I think he can win fights in the UFC in general. He also has okay power and is durable. He has never been knocked out or submitted in his career.
Johnson is an okay defensive wrestler but not a great one. He defends takedowns at 67 percent and was outwrestled badly by Muhammad Mokaev.
Johnson at least can kind of defend takedowns and looks to work up to his feet which I like. I didn’t like the end of his fight against Ode Osbourne though. He was taken down twice in round three, looked tired, and was controlled for over two minutes. It was a bad look. He still showed some defensive wrestling resistance against Estevam and Maksum though.
I think the best way to put it is that Johnson can be taken down and outwrestled by good wrestlers. However, he will make opponents work very hard to take and hold him down.
As far as this matchup goes, I expect these guys to strike as neither guy is a great offensive wrestler, and both can defend takedowns and scramble up enough. I expect the winner of this fight to be the winner of the striking exchanges so I will focus on that.
On the feet, I think this is going to be very fun and competitive. I really like the pace of Van and I understand why people are enthusiastic about him and why he is a moderate favorite here. I am going to pick him because I love his pace overall.
However, a lot of Van’s dominance has come when his opponents are gassed badly. Johnson typically has good cardio, and I don’t expect him to be extremely tired in round three like some of Van’s previous opponents. So I do think this is sneakily a much tougher matchup for Van than some previous fights. Johnson also has good striking and head strike metrics as does Van. Both guys are extremely durable and tough as well.
I simply think all those things make this a recipe for a back and forth striking fight that probably goes to the cards. I honestly think the line is a bit wide and that Johnson is a live dog simply because he has a gas tank. I mean even Bunes outlanded Van early on in their fight. Van just tends to build and not land much early, which could give Johnson round one.
I am expecting a tight one here, and this is probably dog or pass from a betting perspective. This should be a fun one.
—
On DraftKings, I do really like the potential pace of this matchup, but I don’t really like the odds for it to be a competitive striking affair that goes the distance.
Van is priced at 8.7k which is affordable, and it’s definitely possible the public chases his recent scores of 135 and 106. I also think it’s possible that his pace could lead to a similar result as past fights – lots of volume, hurting his opponent mid or late, and getting a TKO.
That outcome doesn’t feel extremely likely though, which is why the GTD odds are currently -275.
I mean, Johnson is thought of as a mediocre or worse fighter, but he’s almost always competing against guys who want to spam takedowns. In pure striking fights, he’s pretty good.
He had a war with Zhumagulov who landed 119 sig. strikes on him, while Johnson landed 115. Van outlanded Zhumagulov 120 to 103.
It seems very realistic that we could get a tight, 125-110 sig. strike type of fight. That should be fun, but without damage, 125 sig. strikes is only 80 points. Coincidentally, Van scored 80 against Zhumagulov in that debut.
So now he’s +350 to win ITD, against a tougher opponent than past fights who is much taller, much longer and competent defensively. It just doesn’t rate out like a great play.
You can argue the best thing about Van in this situation is his value. He’s now -240 to win at 8.7k, priced right next to Jackson who is -134. Given the popularity of Van’s name and his wins, plus the value, I could see Van being more popular than you’d expect based on finishing metrics alone.
I still do think Van could reach a ceiling and I’m not necessarily advocating for a fade, but he’d have to hurt Johnson. Wrestling equity is too minor. Volume isn’t enough. Play him as a secondary option if you want but I wouldn’t be prioritizing Van outright and would aim to be underweight if he projects to be popular.
Johnson at 7.5k is who he is. The most likely scenario is him getting 70-80 points from him in a decision. His ITD line sucks at +475.
I do think he has mild wrestling equity, just like Van, and could maybe land 1-2 takedowns. I doubt it’s hugely impactful within the fight itself though.
Johnson has been priced in this range in recent fights, he’s scored in the low 70s, and I believe one time he was optimal. If no other dogs are winning, that’s good enough, and I do think Johnson has a decent floor which could be mildly factored in as well. It’s not a terrible spot for win equity at what should be a low ownership.
It’s also really hard to project a great ceiling for Johnson, which is why I don’t expect many to prioritize him. That’s fine. I do think his value is greater in floor based situations.
I may mix Johnson in tournament lineups when I need some salary relief, but he won’t be a top priority for me.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Van by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Jasmine Jasudavicius vs. Fatima Kline
Fight Odds: Jasudavicius -110, Kline -104
Odds to Finish: +250
DraftKings Salaries: Kline 8.4k, Jasudavicius 7.8k
Weight Class: 125
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
Originally booked to fight Viviane Araujo, Jasmine Jasudavicius will be facing off with UFC debutante Fatima Kline, who will be taking this fight on a week’s notice.
I was actually impressed with Jasmine Jasudavicius in her win against Miranda Maverick. She wrestled and struck hard, and showed some really good cardio in an upset win. I also thought Jasmine looked decent with her wrestling game in her recent loss against Tracy Cortez. She then dominated Priscila Cachoeira and showed she can wreck weak grapplers on the mat.
Jasmine is mostly a grappler and more specifically a wrestler. She likes to clinch her opponents up with a body lock, get the takedown and go to work in top position. Her top game is pretty heavy, and I do like her ground and pound. She will posture up and throw some hard shots.
Jasmine lands 2.16 takedowns per 15 minutes, and I consider her takedowns decent. She is tenacious and her pace and physicality assists her takedowns in general. I also have liked the tdd of Jasmine, and she defends takedowns at 80 percent and works up to her feet well.
Although Jasmine is long, she doesn’t use her length to control range on the feet. She is not technical on the feet at all. She lands 3.95 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.03. She is a bit of a punching bag. I actually thought Jasmine’s striking looked better against Maverick though. It was more so her pace and pressure than her striking in that fight. She just walks forward and backs her opponents up.
I still think Jasmine has many flaws though. She isn’t technical at all on the feet and is a borderline liability there. However, she is tenacious and pressures hard. She will look to land offense and she is big as well. I think she can continue to grind out wins with takedowns, control, and pace at this level. Finishes will likely come against bad competition as well.
Jasmine will be taking on blue chip prospect Fatima Kline. I am just going to say this, and I don’t say this often. Kline is probably the best female prospect I have seen in a long time. I am not going to guarantee a win this weekend. However, I am very confident that this girl is UFC level in all areas of the game, and I think she could threaten top ten opponents now. She is also only 23 years old so who knows how good she may end up being.
Kline is 6-0 professionally and was the double champ at strawweight and flyweight in Cage Fury FC, a decent regional promotion. None of her MMA fights have been competitive, and she has just dominated opponents as she has just been so much more talented than her competition.
Kline is a BJJ black belt and has a ton of experience in submission grappling. I watched her grappling tape, and she is clearly a strong BJJ player and submission grappler. Furthermore, her double leg and offensive wrestling looks quite strong and she has been easily taking down opponents in mma whenever she wants. I definitely think she can have success grappling in the UFC. I also just like her cardio as well and she seems like a good athlete.
Although Kline is mostly credentialed as a grappler, her striking looks strong too. She looks to land body kicks and straight punches. She controls range very well and also just seems accurate. She also switches stances well. I honestly think she might be a very solid striker. My eyes like what they see here.
I think the main issue for Kline is that her quality of competition has been horrible so she hasn’t been tested defensively much. Her defensive wrestling looked strong in the few exchanges that I have seen of it. However, she has not been tested there enough and has faced no good wrestlers. Furthermore, I haven’t seen her fight a good striker yet either, so who knows if she is skilled defensively as a striker. My eyes tell me she is probably good defensively in both areas though.
The question marks make it hard to analyze this matchup. I honestly lean towards Kline not being able to take and hold down Jasmine. Jasmine is super physical, will have a size advantage, and Jasmine is also just a strong defensive wrestler.
I do tend to think Kline is a better striker though. She is far more technical, and honestly may piece Jasmine up. I also tend to think Kline has strong cardio. So Jasmine may not be able to gas pedal Kline like she has done to previous opponents.
The main question mark here is whether or not Kline can stop the wrestling of Jasmine. If Kline can, she should win. If not, she is probably going to lose. I am pretty sure Kline has good defensive wrestling and I think she is way more talented than Jasmine, so I am going to pick Kline to win. It is hard to be confident here though as Jasmine has a good singular skillset of tenacious wrestling and it very well may be too much for Kline to handle when you factor in the size.
I still think Kline is a fantastic prospect whether or not she wins this weekend. I also just think she is extremely talented and could be levels above Jasmine. So I am going to pick Kline to win on short notice.
—
On DraftKings, it’s an intriguing mid-range fight and one that certainly has some potential.
From a macro view, it’s a potentially high-paced fight, with lots of grappling exchanges. I am not certain how Kline will fare on short-notice, up a weight class, but she does look talented and it’s quite possible she’s just the better wrestler here too.
Priced at 8.4k, I am somewhat interested in Kline. Perhaps it’s just a shiny new toy, and clearly, there are still reasons to be cautious. For example, she has not been a strong finisher on the regional scene, and I wouldn’t expect a finish in this matchup. She’s only +400 to win ITD.
That and her betting line has fallen to the pick’em territory, where she’s actually the dog on some books. So she is technically overpriced as well.
That does limit some of Kline’s ceiling. Additionally, it’s possible she will only choose to strike, in which case, she’ll be a bust.
What we really need is for Kline to wrestle, which could be aided if Jasmine pushes a pace. That could lead to a few takedowns landed, control, ground strikes, and more. I would expect a decent floor and a score that exceeds value for the price, in that kind of win.
I’m still unsure if Kline has a tournament winning ceiling though. I want to believe it. Priced at 8.4k isn’t very expensive. I’m just ultimately concerned she’ll be neutralized on the ground to a degree, and will only win a decision. I think there are likely a few better ceiling options in this range and with the additional drop in ML, I probably won’t be too invested in her in this debut.
Jasudavicius at 7.8k has upside in her style, and you don’t have to look much further than her last victory, which put up 169 fantasy points.
If she can get on top consistently, she’ll smash because she throws so many ground strikes. Without being certain of Kline’s skill level defensively, there is some room for Jasudavicius to do exactly this and put up an optimal score.
And now that Jas is the favorite in some spots, she’s an intriguing option at 7.8k that I think some will be happy to target.
I do generally think Kline is a better technical grappler though, so I’d be a bit surprised if Jasmine did dominate there. I lean toward her ceiling being limited for that reason, and additionally not being super excited about targeting her at all. Her ITD line also sucks at +525.
It’s just tough because I do think both fighters have paths to score well, just based on the pace and potential for grappling exchanges. But the winner likely needs to dominate on the ground, and I’m just not sure that happens.
I lean toward being light on this fight in tournaments, but I don’t mind a lower-end sprinkle of each, and probably with a slight lean toward Kline despite the value.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Kline by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Luana Santos vs. Mariya Agapova
Fight Odds: Santos -390, Agapova +304
Odds to Finish: -155
DraftKings Salaries: Santos 9.2k, Agapova 7k
Weight Class: 125
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have an interesting matchup here as Luana Santos will be taking on the returning Mariya Agapova.
Santos is now 2-0 in the UFC and 7-1 professionally. She knocked out Julianna Miller in her UFC debut and then beat Stephanie Egger in a decision by moderately outstriking her and obtaining some clinch control time.
Santos is a bit of a freestyle fighter, but she comes from a judo background and has a black belt in the art. Santos is a competent grappler, she can obtain takedowns and get some control time. She can definitely take advantage of weak grapplers. However, I still hate that her takedowns are a bit too upper body reliant.
Like many judokas, she goes for many head and arm throws. I much more prefer takedowns below the waist. I have always said that about Judo reliant fighters.
Santos can definitely beat weak grapplers, but I do think there will come a point where those judo takedowns won’t work, and she will struggle.
Santos can strike a bit too. She knocked out Miller, and is a decent striker. She is nothing great and hasn’t ever beaten an actual good striker though. However, she can manage range somewhat and land boxing combinations. I still do not fully trust her standing at all though, and do think good strikers could have their way with her. I also am skeptical of her defensive wrestling as I have seen her taken down and held down herself.
Santos will be taking on Mariya Agapova. Agapova hasn’t fought for nearly two years when she was taken down and submitted by the very tough to deal with Gillian Robertson. That was just a really tough matchup for Agapova and I played Robertson in that fight.
Agapova is best as a striker. She lands 4.67 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.82 in return. She is a bit green overall as a fighter. However, on the feet, I consider her solid. She has a diversity of strikes in her game and hits pretty hard relative to her peers. In striking fights, I respect her chances to win fights at this level. She has also showed some flashes of brilliance, and I do consider her dangerous.
The issue is that Agapova’s defensive grappling isn’t good. She is 2-4 in UFC affiliated fights and defends takedowns at 47 percent. She has been taken down, passed, mounted, and finished three times in the UFC.
I just do not respect her TDD or her ability to fight off her back. She gives up advances of position SO easily. She also gives up her back like clockwork. She is a liability on the mat. We saw Moroz absolutely dominate her and Robertson did too.
I do think Agapova is somewhat physical at stopping first layer takedown attempts though. However, I just don’t trust this girl if she has to stop multiple takedown attempts in a fight. Her two UFC fights that she won, she did not face a single takedown attempt lol. She has lost every other fight quite handily when she has been forced to wrestle.
Agapova is decent at taking the back though. She took the back of Cifers and choked her out. I do think she is opportunistic and could get back takes at this level. However, the more extended the grappling exchanges become, I just do not trust her. Skilled grapplers are going to take advantage of her.
As far as this matchup goes, this is pretty binary. I do think Agapova is the more skilled striker and the more dangerous one. If this fight stays standing for whatever reason, Agapova could definitely win and probably will win.
I actually don’t even like Santos’ takedowns all that much either. I really do think Agapova could stop some takedowns here and make this interesting. Agapova even gave Robertson fits early. Sometimes Santos is a bit too complacent striking as well. So I honestly do think this could stay standing longer than people think. So I really do think Agapova is live here. I definitely think the line is too wide.
However, Agapova is just so bad once she is actually grounded and I almost always favor grapplers when that is the case. It could just take a takedown or two for Santos to absolutely dominate and maybe finish this fight. So I will go with Santos for the grappling upside alone. However, I do think Agapova is a live dog.
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On DraftKings, Santos is definitely intriguing, but I’m here to deliver the bad news because I think she carries some significant risk as well.
The primary issue is that Agapova has been melted on the mat multiple times, and it’s easy to foresee that outcome happening again. Now against a base judo player in Santos, I understand why there is some excitement here.
However, Santos isn’t really a high-level BJJ player and you cannot compare her to Robertson, or even Moroz. I’m unsure if a couple takedowns would be as impactful in that sense.
At the same time, Agapova has shown to be quite weak on the ground, with some questionable cardio. So maybe 1-2 takedowns could just lead to a finish for Santos.
If you want to play into that potential upside for Santos, I understand. She’d be a pretty risky fade in large fields due to theoretical grappling + finishing upside. Most people that I respect believe this line is too wide though, and there’s nothing within Santos’ tape to suggest she’s going to be a dominant grappling force.
I may lean against Santos as the priority in this top range because of it. Having exposure to Elder, Bonfim and some KO options below is still a very viable strategy.
Santos ultimately rates out well at -130 to win ITD, with an opponent in front of her who may implode. I do not feel sure that the fight will play out as easily as it appears on paper.
Agapova at 7k is one of a few interesting, cheap, leverage targets on the slate. I highly doubt she’ll be popular given her recent performances, but she was once thought of as a legit prospect and has scored 114 and 94 in her two UFC wins.
It’s tough to project elite upside with a +750 ITD line, but I do at least see a path to victory for her on the feet. I don’t think it’s the worst slate to get off the chalk and take some shots on leverage punts like Agapova.
Realistically she’s going to end up quite low on the priority list though, and there are even other fighters in this very bottom end who are arguably preferred. With a large portfolio, I don’t mind a sprinkle of Agapova.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Santos by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Josh Fremd vs. Andre Petroski
Fight Odds: Petroski -110, Fremd -104
Odds to Finish: -165
DraftKings Salaries: Fremd 8.3k, Petroski 7.9k
Weight Class: 185
What an extremely random matchup we have here between the once bright prospect Andre Petroski and regional gatekeeper Josh Fremd.
Petroski won five consecutive fights to open his UFC career, after falling short on The Ultimate Fighter against Bryan Battle. Three of those victories came inside the distance, where Petroski was able to display some strong wrestling and grappling skills.
However, that run of excellent results pushed Petroski into a tougher tier of competition, and he’s since suffered back-to-back knockout losses to Michel Pereira and Jacob Malkoun.
Both outcomes were a bit odd as well. Pereira landed one clean shot in the first minute that dropped Petroski and forced him to cover up. Malkoun swarmed for the finish in the second round after Petroski wobbled himself by diving head first into the hip of Malkoun on a takedown attempt.
Neither of these outcomes make me especially confident in Petroski facing adversity, but both can be written off to a degree as well.
I suppose the bigger issue is that as far back as you can possibly go in Petroski’s career, he’s always had issues facing adversity, primarily due to cardio reasons. He starts strong, dominates on the mat, and wins ITD. But when he fails to secure a finish, he gets tired and can be finished himself.
That played out on the regional scene. It played out on TUF. And it’s played out to a degree in the UFC.
Prior to his two losses, Petroski barely escaped against Gerald Meerschaert after winning the first two rounds. He got tired once again, and ended up on his back late with Meerschaert landing ground-and-pound. It’s always been an extreme red flag for me with Petroski, and he’s a fighter who I do not trust to fight through adversity.
I’m still fairly surprised to see him priced as an underdog against Josh Fremd, who I don’t consider very good in any area of the game.
Fremd has a D3 collegiate wrestling background, but I don’t consider him nearly as talented as Petroski as a grappler, who wrestled at the D1 level and has a brown belt in jiu-jitsu. Fremd has only picked up two wins in his first five UFC bouts, and his competition has been largely mediocre.
Anthony Hernandez took him down eight times to a dominant control decision in his UFC debut, which fair enough, is a tough opponent to deal with. But then Tresean Gore took him down three times and submitted him in the second round, which is an extreme red flag as Gore is not a strong grappler in any regard.
Then Fremd earned a submission victory against Sedriques Dumas, a low-level talent with weak grappling. Then he edged out a decision against Jamie Pickett, despite Pickett taking him down multiple times. And most recently, Roman Kopylov knocked him out.
Fremd just isn’t effective in any area of the game. He’s averaging 2.9 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 2.6. He lands 0.84 takedowns per 15 minutes and is defending takedowns at 31 percent.
There is a very strong chance that Fremd is not a part of the UFC roster by this time next year.
And with all that said, it very much feels to me like the market has made a big overcorrection on Petroski due to his recent, odd losses against great competition, despite Fremd showing very little competency in his own right.
At the same time, I can only show so much confidence for a fighter like Petroski who will be fighting at elevation in Denver this weekend, while holding a history of fading late, and getting finished in odd circumstances.
The matchup itself has some hope, but there’s also a decent chance it’s terribly boring and non-impactful from a fantasy perspective.
Striking exchanges especially could be super awkward. Petroski doesn’t have many skills at range, and he’s getting outlanded with a -0.7 margin per minute at distance. He has only cleared 40 distance strikes in a couple of matchups, and his general volume upside is low.
At best, Petroski will swing wildly and land a big shot, but that style also has a recipe for him to get tired.
Fremd is honestly the superior striker, and I would favor him at distance outright. He is just a little more technical and functional, and he can throw a jab. A basic jab might be enough to hurt Petroski or make him tired.
And given Petroski’s recent losses, I suppose there’s some chance a random shot like a jab could send Petroski to the canvas and finish the fight.
Fremd doesn’t throw a lot of volume either though, and he’s not a major power threat. Less than 40 percent of Fremd’s fight time is played out at distance, meaning the majority of exchanges are in the clinch or on the ground.
I’d still favor Fremd and there’s mild KO upside on both ends, but it would be pretty sloppy and low-volume.
Petroski most likely needs to have wrestling success to win, but that’s always been his M.O, so my expectation is that he pushes to wrestle early in this matchup. In his five-fight win streak, Petroski landed 18 takedowns, topping out at eight against Turman, so he’s clearly capable of it.
He should be the better technical wrestler here, and he should be able to get on top of Fremd. Ignoring Hernandez’ success, I’ve seen Tresean Gore take him down and take his back. I’ve seen Jamie Pickett on top of him. Petroski is a better wrestler than those guys.
Petroski is also a far more dangerous submission grappler. In theory, he could take the back, or hunt for an early choke. I do think an early submission for Petroski is very much in play, as is controlling Fremd for multiple rounds early in the fight.
If Petroski cannot find the finish, that’s clearly where things will start to get sketchy. Especially at altitude, it’s possible Petroski is dead by round two. I don’t think that’s extremely likely because Fremd doesn’t push a pace, and shouldn’t really threaten Petroski much, but I am very worried about the cardio aspect here.
If the fight extends, I just simply will not have faith that Petroski can continue to produce offense, and so that provides an easy out for Fremd to win. If he can survive, Fremd can win.
I’m still not sure how it would look? I doubt he can easily take Petroski down, and he’s not a great submission grappler. Maybe he just wins on late control or damage on the feet, but my feeling is that for Fremd to win this fight cleanly, it will need to be largely tied to the cardio failures of Petroski.
I am going to pick Petroski to win as he’s pretty clearly the superior grappler in my book, and this is a big step down in competition for him. But at elevation, I do have major concerns that he’ll miss his short window to find a finish, get tired, and blow it once again.
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On DraftKings, Petroski is my preferred target at 7.9k and I personally won’t mind being above the field this week.
It’s difficult to assess because I have been waiting to fade Petroski for a while and I’ve done so in some of his other matchups. The red flags are clear. And this is not a safe option in any regard.
But I highly respect both Pereira and Malkoun as opponents and I didn’t expect Petroski to have great success in those fights. He gets an opponent now who may not be awful, but is clearly a step down and someone Petroski can compete with.
And if he wins, I still think the most likely outcome is early grappling success, and a submission. Petroski is +225 to win ITD which is decent, and Fremd has already been finished twice in the UFC.
And even in a decision, Petroski still has some upside. He scored 104 in a decision win against Turman.
While I acknowledge the lack of safety and bust risk in an extended fight, I don’t mind jumping back on the train here given Petroski’s base skill set and the matchup. His style is still set up well for upside in wins, and I’m willing to buy into it again here.
Fremd is priced at 8.3k and is a fine option if you believe Petroski has nothing left in the tank.
He’s actually +155 to win ITD which is a decent line, and somewhat of a surprise given how he has very little finishing instincts outside of a guillotine choke. I suppose it shows just how scared the market is about Petroski. (Note he was +110 ITD earlier in the week)
My real fear is just that he’s not going to produce offense. He won’t throw a ton of striking volume. He’s already been outgrappled by mediocre competition and he’ll likely find himself defending for a while against Petroski. He might not even want to wrestle with Petroski at all.
Fremd has also scored 66 in his lone decision win which tells you just how little offense he’s producing. He did score 109 in his second-round submission win though, so that’s the upside you’re hoping for.
I can’t fully count it out due to Petroski’s weaknesses, but I don’t feel great about the Fremd play. He feels pretty boom or bust and I’d rather be underweight or use him as a secondary target than anything primary. There’s definitely variance in the matchup though.
Overall, it’s a weird fight, with little to be confident about. Both have paths to victory, and the matchup is still lined well to end ITD at -165. I just prefer the early grappling upside of Petroski, so he’ll be the side I’m most willing to invest in this weekend.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Petroski by Anaconda Choke, RD 1 (Confidence=Low)
Montel Jackson vs. Da’Mon Blackshear
Fight Odds: Jackson -134, Blackshear +116
Odds to Finish: +155
DraftKings Salaries: Jackson 8.6k, Blackshear 7.6k
Weight Class: 135
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Montel Jackson is a Contender Series alum from one of the original seasons. He’s had a few setbacks and hasn’t been the most active guy on the roster, but he’s proven tough out as well – he’s 7-2 in the UFC and 13-2 as a pro. Da’Mon Blackshear bypassed the Contender Series as a short notice fill back in 2022 to where he’s had mixed results, albeit against a good level of competition. He’ll be coming in on shorter notice for this spot as well replacing past opponent Farid Basharat – he’s 2-2-1 in the UFC and 14-6-1 as a pro.
The striking component:
Jackson’s a freakishly long southpaw for the division, standing 5’10” with a 75” reach.
A lot of his fights have involved heavier wrestling components which have dropped his significant striking numbers down to 3.2 per minute at 56%, but his distance metrics aren’t very good either at 4.2 per minute — 0.5 below the divisional average.
He’s still outpaced all 10 of his UFC opponents which needs to be noted, but there are patient elements to his game.
He’s an impactful striker though, having scored knockdowns in his last six fights. Ironically, he’s only finished two of those guys so his finishing instincts haven’t been the best per say.
Just given his length, opponents have struggled realizing extended striking success against him, as he absorbs only 2.7 distance strikes per minute with a 67% defensive rate – coupled with the fact he hasn’t fought many good strikers which needs to be noted.
Overall, Montel is going to be a tough guy to outstrike if opponents can’t get inside with consistency, but I still want to see how he fairs against a higher level of striker.
I’m unsure of Blackshear’s striking background but we have seen a healthy amount of him at distance over the years.
He’s not a particularly high-volume striker in the aggregate but is someone whose pacing will adapt with the person across from him.
I would like him to throw some more straight punches but does have a good hook and range kicking game – he’ll also throw explosive knees and is capable in the clinch. Despite only having two career KOs, he has shown some power capabilities in recent years, dropping both Vogel and Anderson.
Defensively, I’m not in love with him though as he can leave his head on the center line, especially when he’s flurrying or coming forward in general. But regionally, he’s been durable and is getting the better of the striking exchanges – he hasn’t fought many good strikers though.
However, we did see him struggle with Zalal in his debut where he got out landed 42 to 27 at distance, and was dropped with a body kick late in the 3rd round and nearly finished – he also slowed down quite a bit in that fight.
He struck competitively with Basharat and Bautista but was just a tad behind.
Overall, Blackshear falls into the capable striker category for me where he’s well-rounded enough to not get blown out of the water, but his style also doesn’t give him a large ceiling as well.
How it plays out: I’d anticipate exchanges to be somewhat competitive minute to minute in more of a mid-tempo range affair. But I’d ultimately favor Jackson as the longer guy with more KO equity and better defensive capabilities. The kicking of Blackshear could bring him healthy success but he’s going to have to be careful in throwing kicks against a guy in Jackson who can come behind them with straight shots.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Jackson comes from a wrestling background and is a BJJ purple belt.
He’s shown to be an effective cage wrestler and reps some pretty insane TD metrics, landing 3.4 per 15 minutes at 69%.
We saw him snatch up a d’arce choke in his debut over Kelleher with those longer limbs, but it was also more of a club and sub scenario and that’s Jackson’s only submission win to date, so he’s hasn’t been a huge threat there or with GNP in top positions.
It’s been the defensive wrestling that’s ultimately been his undoing in the UFC, despite stuffing at a respectable rate of 69%.
In both of his UFC losses, Simon and Johns were able to close distance with consistency, land a lot of TDs and rack up a good amount of control time. Jackson did provide a healthy amount of resistance in both fights, but the attritional grind got to him in both.
Jackson was also put in some bad spots, like getting mounted and his back taken. He also was threatened with a deep guillotine from Johns, and we saw Buys have some early grappling success in mounting Jackson.
Arce also took him down at the end of the 1st round which wasn’t the best of looks.
To his credit, he was able to get out of all those positions but nonetheless, wrestling/grappling is what lost him the Simon and Johns fights.
Overall, Jackson will outwrestle guys who aren’t at his level but he’s going to continue to struggle with attrition or guys who can blend both ground arts.
Blackshear is a BJJ black belt where the majority of his success has come on the floor in his fights.
He’s not the guy to dive on legs for 15 minutes but he has decent wrestling and has proven to be a dangerous grappler with 9/14 pro wins coming via submission. He’s also one of only a handful of UFC fighters to pull off a twister which came a few fights back over Jose Johnson.
His control is best when he can really solidify positions after passing, but he does have some submission over position elements at the same time where guys have been able to scramble with him.
For as much success as he’s had on the floor, the floor has also been his downfall.
We saw him get rag dolled by both Sabatello and Sabatini – however, not bad losses at all.
Sabatello comes out of Purdue and just fought for a Bellator world title – Sabatini’s also a former collegiate wrestler, black belt and current UFC fighter.
In the UFC, there’s been some back and forth between the Zalal, Basharat and Bautista fights with lots of trading in positions – he edged early against Zalal, Basharat got the better of him and he slightly got the better of Bautista.
Overall, Blackshear’s good on the ground but some of the quicker/scramblier guys have given him more problems in terms of mounting consistent, sustained success.
How it plays out: The ground’s interesting here as we’ve seen pros and cons for both. Despite Jackson having the better wrestling metrics on paper, in this particular matchup, I’d assume Blackshear will be the more consistent pursuer of shots if I had to guess. What also makes Blackshear interesting is that he’s one of the best wrestler/grappler combo archetypes Jackson has fought. Jackson will give up bad positions and Blackshear is a guy who can take them. But it also begs the question of can Blackshear wrestle a hard 15 minutes on two weeks’ notice, at elevation, against a big opponent when we’ve seen him cardio dump on short notice already? That’s where things get dicey.
Fun matchup that I could see going a multitude of ways. I lean more to the Jackson side based on circumstance because I don’t trust Blackshear’s cardio in this spot. But we’ve seen Jackson get tired while wrestling before too, and Blackshear will bring it for at least 7.5 minutes.
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On DraftKings, this is another tricky situation because Montel Jackson is arguably one of the better prospects in the division, but he’s been a bit inconsistent and there’s just enough in this matchup to potentially pose him problems.
But like Luke noted, those problems would probably come in the form of Blackshear relentlessly landing takedowns for three rounds. I do think that’s within the range of outcomes and something Blackshear may aim for, but Jackson is a good wrestler on paper and Blackshear has exhausted himself in fights before.
It feels pretty dicey to assume he can just wrestle smash Jackson on short notice at elevation. Johns and Simon were able to have success but they’re better wrestlers than Blackshear. I could see Blackshear holding position for longer periods of time I suppose.
Blackshear is priced down to 7.6k and my feeling is that he could be the more popular party in the matchup, due to the wrestling upside.
He has scored 115 and 114 in wins, and in theory, he’ll need to grapple to have success. There’s been just enough issues with Jackson defensively that I could see it as a possibility and would be afraid to rule that outcome out.
And for that reason, Blackshear is viable. Additionally, he’s only sitting at +116 to win now, so he’s a pretty clear value at this price. That value alone may swarm people onto him more often than I imagined.
I will likely play some Blackshear for the value/grappling combo, but I don’t consider this a great matchup for him. He’s only +325 to win ITD. Coming in near the field is fine if you’re excited about his potential, but I imagine I’ll lean underweight if he projects to be chalky.
Jackson on 8.6k may end up as a contrarian option given his falling moneyline.
I don’t have a major problem with that as it’s not the greatest matchup for Jackson on paper either. He may have to defend takedowns, and he’s been a bit limited with his volume at distance.
He’s scored a lot of knockdowns and there’s always some KO upside, but that isn’t the easiest path to victory here and he’s only +325 to win ITD. Largely, I’d consider Jackson boom or bust and dependent on a knockout to hit an optimal score.
The only caveat is that Jackson could also land takedowns of his own. Blackshear isn’t the best defensively and has been taken down by four of his past five opponents. We once saw Jackson land 11 takedowns in a fight, and he’s landed two or more takedowns on six different occasions.
Jackson putting up 60 significant strikes and multiple takedowns is a realistic possibility, but that still won’t get him very far unless he’s also mixing in knockdowns. The knockdowns have really inflated Jackson’s DK scoring, and perhaps there’s some sneaky upside because of it.
With a low public ownership, it’s not that I hate Jackson. I just don’t fully trust he’ll dominate at the level necessary to be optimal at a high rate, so my guess is I’ll end up fairly light on exposure to him this week.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Jackson by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Evan Elder vs. Darrius Flowers
Fight Odds: Elder -410, Flowers +310
Odds to Finish: -180
DraftKings Salaries: Elder 9.4k, Flowers 6.8k
Weight Class: 170
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
This is an impromptu booking that came out of left field during fight week where neither man had a fight scheduled prior. Evan Elder is 1-2 in the UFC and 8-2 as a pro. Darrius Flowers is 0-2 in the UFC and 12-7-1 as a pro.
The striking component:
Elder’s striking falls more into the “meat and potatoes” category for me. He’s not the flashiest, fastest or most powerful guy in the world necessarily but does the basics well.
He’s got a good jab that he’ll target to the head and the body, a really good left hook and a respectable kicking game which has put an opponent down in the past.
The main issue I have with Elder’s stand up is that he can prioritize single shots, or two shots at times, in which we’ve seen him countered off of. He’ll use a decent amount of footwork but can struggle with pressure at times and within the pocket.
However, his strength of competition hasn’t been the best so he’s by and large been able to be the better striker in his fights. Even in his short notice debut against Parsons, he only got out landed by seven strikes at distance – Parsons is a wrestler/grappler by base though.
I thought he had a good performance against Sadykhov though and dropped him in the 1st round.
He most recently outlanded Valdez 96 to 64 where there were flash knockdowns both ways, but Elder largely controlled the exchanges in that fight.
Overall, I still have some questions about how Elder’s stand up will translate to a UFC level, but I do like his activity and general process.
I’m unsure of Flowers’ background but he’s best as a striker.
Despite even fighting up at 185 lbs for the bulk of his career and now down at 170, he’s not a very big 170er in terms of stature.
The best way to describe him is as more of a brawler as he doesn’t possess much technical acumen. He likes to get into the pocket and trade bombs from there.
In his defense, he’s been able to best his opponents in multiple outings in being able to find his way inside and finish his fights – 8 of 12 pro wins via strikes.
However, he’s not a particularly active striker from range – it’s more so when he can back guys up and corner them to where he’ll begin to unload with shots.
Defensively, he does okay at range when he’s fresh but there’s little head movement overall and especially when he’s in the pocket with his chin right up in the air.
He has been durable though generally, having only been KO’d once in his pro career with zero KO’s as an amateur spanning 36 combined fights. The only KO loss was to Voelker back in 2018 where he blew his wad early in a fight he was largely dominating – he has been KO’d in boxing a handful of times though.
In the UFC though, he’s struggled with more technical parties in Matthews and Johnson but did have moments in both fights.
Overall, Flowers can have success against opponents he can just walk down but is poor technically speaking.
How it plays out: As noted, Elder isn’t a world beater, but he’s got the footwork, volume, diversity of attack and durability which should provide a healthy number of issues to Flowers. I haven’t seen Flowers outstrike anyone of real merit where Elder’s performance on the feet against Sadykhov is more meaningful than anything Flowers has done. Despite Elder not being a gigantic hitter, I think he could get Flowers out of there with attrition considering Flowers doesn’t have very good cardio to begin with and this is at elevation. Elder will need to mind his Ps and Qs though because Flowers does have power.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Elder comes from a wrestling/BJJ background but I’m unsure of his official credentials in those realms.
He showed some good entries to TDs in his last regional win and was able to finish the fight by pounding out his opponent. He also has had some success earlier on in his regional career but has struggled with ground control in certain spots as well.
In his debut against Parsons, he ended up losing the fight primarily on the mat, getting taken down four times on six attempts while conceding nearly eight minutes of control time.
He also got caught in multiple submission attempts but to his credit, he hung tough and was able to work out of those positions and score some reversals of his own, though he mounted little offense.
But he took that fight on short notice against a stronger guy with a ground base, so it is more forgivable. At the same time, he was getting taken down without much issue earlier on in the fight when he still had gas – his hips aren’t particularly difficult to get to.
The ground didn’t come into play much against Sadykhov, but he did land a nicely timed shot on Sadykhov despite not being able to control him much. Most recently, he landed one on Valdez, but Valdez worked up quickly.
Overall, Elder seems semi capable on the ground, but I’d like a bigger sample size.
I’m also unsure of the floor background of Flowers but he has shown the ability to land some explosive TDs in a handful of fights.
However, he really only controls when opponents accept being controlled. He can throw a bit of GNP but seemingly has no real jiu-jitsu process. He only has one pro win via submission which was his last W, where his opponent tapped from a shoulder separation after an inverted triangle KO slam.
Generally, I feel if opponents want to get up under him, they’ll be able to do so.
Defensively, he hasn’t been shot on much, but he’s been submitted in 4/6 pro losses and in 3/5 amateur losses.
He got tired against Leininger in his last regional loss, got taken down in the 2nd, got mounted (did get out) but gave up a gilly quickly after and insta tapped.
He also got tired against Matthews where despite not being officially taken down, he didn’t have much to offer when he got put on his back and was eventually finished.
He more recently got out wrestled by Johnson in the back half of the fight, conceding four TDs and six minutes of control – Johnson isn’t a bad loss on paper, but Johnson also doesn’t really out wrestle anyone as that was the most TDs he’s ever landed in his UFC career.
Overall, everything on the ground with him seems more physical than processed based wrestling wise for Flowers and he’s not good on the bottom.
How it plays out: Flowers is potentially capable of taking Elder down but I’d be hard pressed to say he could duplicate a performance similar to Parsons. Elder’s obviously capable of taking Flowers down considering some of the guys I’ve seen have ground success on Flowers, but I still don’t think Elder is anything special as a ground fighter and it also begs the question of if his game plan is going to revolve around wrestling.
Super random booking given the late dynamic. I also think it’s interesting that they’re being matched up considering they both train out of Syndicate in Las Vegas – you don’t usually see guys of the same gym fighting each other unless there are ranking implications. But nonetheless, I think this is a decent spot for Elder to pick up a W as I feel he’s the better fighter with less concerns from a cardio perspective. As noted, Elder isn’t anything special but Darius Flowers on a weeks’ notice at elevation doesn’t seem like a particularly bullish signal. He’s probably drawing most of his equity to a KO in the first half of this fight. Elder via late stoppage is the pick.
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On DraftKings, this random, late-notice matchup could be one of the more important ones on the slate as Elder is now the biggest favorite on the card and priced up to 9.4k.
It’s also a rare case where narrative is likely playing into the betting line a bit – as Flowers tweeted this out shortly before accepting the fight. Essentially he says “I never wanted to compete in elevation on short notice again but I have no choice”. It’s really not the greatest thing to hear for a fighter who already has cardio issues, and I’d wager he’s implying that he’s once again not particularly confident in his own cardio.
With that said, Elder at least has finishing upside on paper. It’s a bit tough to bet on as he’s not really the most dynamic finisher, but he’s very likely to have the better cardio and is probably more technical in all areas. If Flowers is very tired after a round, it’s quite easy to picture a mid or late round stoppage.
Elder is -125 to win ITD as well which is decent, but also not a smash line like you might expect or want.
At 9.4k, I feel OK about Elder. I certainly cannot fault you for playing into the finishing upside of Bonfim, or the grappling upside of Santos. Namajunas in the main event is there as well.
If you can’t afford Elder, that’s fine. There are paths for him to win by KO in round one, but there are also paths for him to win by decision, or late KO, score 90something points and miss the optimal.
I would like exposure to Elder in theory and I’m a bit hesitant on some of those other matchups, so I don’t mind prioritizing him outright based on cardio and matchup alone. It’s still most reasonable to spread your exposure out in this range.
Ultimately there are still boom or bust elements in Elder’s game which makes the matchup tricky but he has a pretty decent shot to win ITD and can certainly be considered as a strong tournament target in this top range.
Flowers at 6.8k feels super boom or bust though I guess he has upside. Elder was just dropped in his last matchup by a weak opponent, though he didn’t seem too affected by it.
Flowers just has no technique, and he will likely try to blow his load brawling for the early portion. That’s never something I want to bet on but it’s not an impossible scenario that he lands a big shot and wins by KO. Flowers is +480 to win ITD which isn’t great.
You just have to know that he won’t really produce offense otherwise. No real striking volume. Minimal wrestling. Winning a decision seems like a tough ask for him given the situation.
He should be pretty low owned though and could possibly be extreme leverage against Elder. It’s not the worst situation to sprinkle him in for large tournaments but it’s really dependent on the size of your portfolio.
With more limited lineups, I will have to prioritize others, even others within this bottom range, and as long as the fight extends a bit, I don’t see Flowers reaching a real ceiling.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Elder by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium)