UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva (9/13/25)
Note: Please read the full analysis, that is much more important than who I pick to win. The confidence relates to my pick to win, not the path to victory. Picks are NOT bets. Matchup breakdowns are written by Brett unless otherwise noted, and all DraftKings analysis is written by Brett. Both Technical Tim and Luke Lampe will also contribute to matchup breakdowns.
MAIN CARD
Diego Lopes vs. Jean Silva
Fight Odds: Silva -237, Lopes +198
Odds to end ITD: -600
DraftKings Salaries: Silva 9.2k, Lopes 7k
Weight Class: 145
We have an action-packed main event for UFC Noche on Saturday between two top contenders in Diego Lopes and Jean Silva.
It’s worth noting from the jump that I’ve been far lower on both of these fighters than the public, and don’t necessarily view them as super-elite talents in this featherweight division. They are both quite dangerous though, and I am excited to see them square off.
Lopes is coming off a disappointing loss to Alexander Volkanovski for the title in April, where we cashed on Volkanovski.
Lopes did have his moments in that bout. He knocked Volkanovski down in the second round, and landed some big shots in totality. But those moments were few and far between, and it was largely Volkanovski picking him apart from the outside for 25 minutes, as expected.
I’ve never been the biggest fan of Lopes’ game because he’s a purely elite submission grappler who cannot wrestle. He lands 0.35 takedowns per 15 minutes and defends them at 67 percent.
In eight tracked fights, Lopes has only landed two total takedowns, which is just not enough for a fighter who specializes on the mat.
To be fair, he’s followed the maniac approach of throwing absolute bombs on the feet, knowing that it will bother opponents, and even if they choose to wrestle him in return, he’ll theoretically have an advantage from the bottom. He locked up a sick triangle/armbar on Gavin Tucker for example, and threatened Evloev in his UFC debut.
Lopes’ wins have generally come from those big moments though. He’s knocked down three of his past five opponents, and he’ll always carry the submission threat. He’s just not a particularly good round winner and tends to slow down late in fights.
Lopes best career round probably came in round three against Brian Ortega where he actually landed 55 significant strikes. I liked that he still had gas in the tank there to chase Ortega, though Ortega is pretty washed at this point. I also like that he went five rounds with Volkanovski, which should give him some confidence to fight an extended period in this upcoming main event.
Still, Lopes only lands 3.70 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 4.76 with a 47 percent defensive rate, which is bad. He doesn’t wrestle offensively. He’ll likely continue to pick up finishes against the mid-tiers of the division but it’s tough to feel confident he can win rounds with any consistency at the highest levels.
Jean Silva will be getting his first main event opportunity after submitting Bryce Mitchell back in April.
That marked the fifth consecutive finish for Silva, and like Lopes, he’s proven to be a very dangerous finisher.
Silva has knocked down four of his past five opponents, and is simply a knockout threat against most of the division. I do worry that like Lopes, he’s still a bit limited from a round winning standpoint.
Like Lopes, Silva doesn’t really wrestle, and only averages 0.60 takedowns per 15 minutes.
He’s proven to be a fine enough defensive wrestler, and is sitting at 86 percent defensively as of now. He did get taken down three times by Charles Jourdain and once by Mitchell though, so it’s not as if Silva can’t be beaten on the mat.
In fact, Silva got held down for the final minute by Mitchell which is still a bit concerning. And then he jumped guillotine in the second round. I don’t think Silva is terrible on the mat, but I would be cautious to view him as some elite defensive wrestler and I still think he’s liable to lose some time from the bottom.
On the feet, Silva lands 4.87 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 4.13 per minute with a 56 percent defensive rate. It’s come in a pretty small sample though, and his career high is 87 sig. strikes over 15 minutes against Vallejos on DWCS.
It’s also worth noting that Dober outlanded Silva 58-53 in that bout, and most recently Bryce Mitchell actually outlanded Silva 36-27.
You can choose to ignore those numbers if you want, as Silva was still landing more effectively, but Mitchell did outland him 22-9 in the first round, and I worry that Silva’s head hunting mentality will also cause him to struggle on a per-minute basis against the top of the division.
I also just don’t consider Silva that proven yet. He’s a dangerous guy, but he’s not separating enough from opponents without knockout shots landed. Those are likely to continue but there’s a lot of variance in striking exchanges and I’d much rather bet on a high volume fighter who also has offensive wrestling capabilities.
As far as the matchup, Silva will rate out as the better striker, and it’s quite possible he just outstrikes Lopes for 25 minutes or knocks him out. However, Lopes is pretty tough and hasn’t been knocked down in the UFC, and Silva has yet to fight for 25 minutes.
Lopes doesn’t necessarily provide the style that’s going to trouble Silva down the stretch, as I’d expect Lopes to tire out if the fight got to that point. But I can’t say I’m certain that Silva will be much fresher and fighting at a much higher pace.
Also, Lopes doesn’t wrestle much so that’s another benefit for Silva, but Lopes is definitely the better sub grappler of the two. I wouldn’t rule out a takedown for Lopes and he could possibly win a round or threaten with just one takedown.
Silva hasn’t really fought anyone with this kind of offensive firepower as well. I think Lopes will come after Silva more than any opponent he’s faced thus far. Without those big shots for Lopes, I think Silva likely survives and proves he’s a more technical fighter over the duration, but it still could be a dangerous fight for Silva to some degree.
I suppose I’ll pick Silva to win, but I don’t view these fighter profiles as the safest, and I do think Lopes can potentially give Silva a true test. I also wouldn’t be shocked if this fight extended or went the distance, as Silva simply knocking Lopes out cold won’t be an easy task, and Lopes just went the full 25 minute distance.
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On DraftKings, Silva is priced up to 9.2k and I honestly think there is some cause for concern.
Unlike the last main event where I was pretty sure it would be slow paced, and fail to perform in an extended fight, this upcoming matchup obviously carries a lot more firepower.
But in terms of projections, I’m not sure Silva is a real stand out unless he gets an early knockout. If Silva wins a decision, 120 significant strikes are in play, but that’s only 78 DraftKings points.
Could Silva land takedowns? Maybe. Will he even try, knowing the threat of Lopes? It’s hard to project him for more than one takedown.
So I really think Silva needs a knockout to reach his ceiling. The good news is that the public thinks that’s a very likely outcome, and Silva is sitting at -120 to win ITD which is strong. For that purpose, plus the “safety” of a main event fighter, I do think Silva is a totally fine option at 9.2k.
I am honestly worried this fight extends a few rounds. And in that kind of fight, I’m just not sold Silva easily clears 100 points and easily clears the rest of this top range. So if he’s going to project as chalk, which I expect, I don’t mind being a bit underweight to Silva this week.
Lopes at 7k is viable as a main event dog.
Again, I’m not sure how much offense he will produce, as he just landed 63 sig. strikes over 25 minutes against Volkanovski. He will project for more than that, but not enough to be a clear stand out over an extended fight.
The upside for Lopes is clear though. He has damage capability and submission capability. I do think a win for Lopes is more likely to be ITD than by decision, and so he has tournament winning upside on paper. He’s +300 to win ITD here which is OK.
But he’s a sizable dog and it’s not a fantastic matchup. He’s also just not proven to chase his win conditions.
So I don’t view Lopes as a phenomenal target, but given the five-round status and some finishing equity, I don’t mind Lopes as a secondary option at 7k.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Silva by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Rob Font vs. Daniel Martinez
Fight Odds: Font -111, Martinez -105
Odds to end ITD: +210
DraftKings Salaries: Font 8.5k, Martinez 7.7k
Weight Class: 135
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have what will likely be a decently action packed fight here in the bantamweight division between David Martinez and Rob Font.
Martinez is a Mexican fighter who is 12-1 professionally. He is 27 years old and this will be his second UFC fight. He is actually the brother of fellow UFC fighter Melissa Martinez, and I think they are the first brother-sister combination in the history of the UFC.
Martinez comes from a karate background and booked his ticket to the UFC with a striking based decision win on the Contender Series. He outlanded his opponent 79-46 in significant strikes. He then made his UFC debut against the pretty terrible Saimon Oliveira and knocked him out in round one.
Martinez is a striker. Martinez’s striking isn’t bad. He has really consistent and strong leg kicks. His leg kicks are actually the best part of his game. He can completely batter his opponents throughout a fight with them. He also has mild to moderate power and has knocked out plenty of guys on the regionals.
Martinez will counter his opponents with straight punches on the way in too. He will sometimes mix in flashy kicks as well so you can see that karate background in his game. He has some decent speed. He also looks decently evasive and can skirt on the outside and frustrate his opponents.
Martinez’s cardio looks alright. I do think he lost some speed as the fight went on in his Contender Series matchup. However, he fought tough down the stretch. I have seen him fight late in other fights with no issue. He also seems tough although I haven’t seen him hit or face much adversity either.
Martinez doesn’t look to wrestle often. I’ve seen him defend takedowns reasonably well and work up fine though. I honestly need to see more of his grappling, but I do think his takedown defense and get-up game looks strong. I don’t think offensive wrestling will be something he looks to do too often at this level.
I basically think Martinez looks like a reasonably capable striker at this level. He has some power and can maybe get a knockout here and there, or win some striking based decisions. I do think he can compete on the feet against the lower to mid talent level of this division.
I will say that Martinez’s competition has been awful though. He hasn’t beaten anyone good so it is at least something to note for now.
Martinez will be taking on Rob Font. Font is generally a good fighter. He fights at a high pace and has a ton of offense in his game. I generally consider him a striker and he has a great jab that compliments his length. Font lands 5.49 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.67 in return. He defends strikes at 57 percent. He has good metrics and is a solid striker. He also has reasonable pop and is capable of hurting guys.
Font is also a reasonably capable grappler. He lands 0.79 takedowns per 15 minutes and is capable of landing some takedowns and offense on the mat from time to time.
I have generally always really liked Font as a fighter. I have cashed on him as an underdog against Yanez and Moraes. However, with all of that being said, I really do think he has looked off in some fights lately. His competition has been stellar. However, he is getting badly hurt in almost every fight and almost every round nowadays. He also gave up 22 takedowns in his last five fights and is only defending takedowns at 42 percent now.
Font just looks declined which makes sense given he is now 38 years old, which is an advanced age for a bantamweight. I think my confidence in him has just generally decreased.
Even though Font’s potential decline concerns me a bit, I won’t completely write him off yet as the upset wins over Kyler Phillips and Jean Matsumoto were pleasant surprises. I thought he actually looked good against Matsumoto so who knows how Font will look vs Martinez.
As far as this matchup goes, this really comes down to Font’s form. If Font comes in looking like the guy who beat Matsumoto or his old self, I think he is the way more proven and experienced fighter and should win this fight. I just think Martinez has never faced adversity or has fought a striker who can actually throw back. This is an absolute massive step up in competition for Martinez and I feel defaulted to pick Font for that reason alone.
However, these guys are going to strike and Martinez isn’t bad, and seems capable and UFC level. Martinez also seems tough and reasonably dangerous, and probably has a durability advantage. Font’s durability is truly an issue. He never gets knocked out somehow but he gets dropped more than almost any good bantamweight I have ever seen. It wouldn’t shock me if Martinez just struck competitively at times, hurt Font once or twice and won a decision or by KO. I don’t write off Martinez at all here and him winning wouldn’t be a surprise.
Still though, Font is just a huge step up and I can’t pick Martinez just because he has beaten a bunch of bums and then knocked out Saimon Oliveira. There is a legitimate chance that Font is just way too much for Martinez and schools him. So Font is the pick because he is the more proven talent.
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On DraftKings, I don’t think this is a matchup I want to be heavy on.
While Font has crushed at times in his career, he thrives most when he gets a real pace fight where he also has finishing equity.
In this fight, Font is +450 to win ITD and the matchup as a whole is -270 to go the distance. Plus, Martinez is absorbing 2.70 sig. strikes per minute with a 67 percent defensive rate.
This just does not strike me as a fight where Font will be landing at will, racking up volume and scoring a knockout.
On caveat there is that it is a big step up in competition for Martinez, and Font will be three inches longer with a four inch reach advantage. Maybe he can just bully Martinez.
I still don’t think Martinez will want to engage in the way that puts himself at risk. And my feeling is that Font landing 80-100 sig. strikes and scoring 60-70 DK points is the most likely outcome. His past two decision wins have scored 74 and 58.
Ultimately, I don’t think I’m playing Font this week at 8.5k. He needs a finish in my mind to reach the optimal and I don’t necessarily want to bet on that.
Martinez at 7.7k interests me a little bit.
I do think he’d need a knockout to be worthwhile, and I don’t necessarily want to bet on that outcome, but Font has been hurt a lot. He’s survived some really dangerous competition recently though, so there isn’t anything to point to and say Martinez is the guy to finish him, other than pure variance. It’s also why Martinez is ultimately the dog here.
I don’t see much wrestling upside for Martinez either. He’s +375 to win ITD which is mediocre.
He is 7.7k though, and if he’s getting a striking fight, maybe variance could come into play. He would only rate out as a very boom or bust target though, and that would cap my exposure pretty firmly.
You don’t have to play Martinez here. He doesn’t rate out well and even in a win, the most likely outcome is probably in the 70-80 point range, which wouldn’t be a likely optimal score.
I think there’s mild damage upside though, and perhaps that’s enough to work him in as a low-end secondary option.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Font by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Jared Gordon vs. Rafa Garcia
Fight Odds: Gordon -243, Garcia +203
Odds to end ITD: +215
DraftKings Salaries: Gordon 9.1k, Garcia 7.1k
Weight Class: 155
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
It has been nice to see Jared Gordon finally get some love. I have always thought he was an underrated fighter and now after a hot run, he is a pretty big favorite here against Rafa Garcia.
Gordon has some issues, but I have liked him more than the betting market has, and have successfully bet him multiple times.
Gordon has arguably looked better than ever as of late and you could argue that he should be undefeated in his last five fights. He has only lost twice in that run, which were controversial split decisions against Nasrat Haqparast and Paddy Pimblett. His last fight was a nasty knockout win over Thiago Moises.
Gordon lands 5.67 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.91. He lands 55 percent of his strikes and defends strikes at 56 percent. That is solid and he is a decent striker. He has good output, is offensive minded in general, and has some boxing skills.
Gordon is also a competent grappler. He lands 1.83 takedowns per 15 minutes and lands them at 32 percent. I don’t consider Gordon a great wrestler, but I do consider him average to above-average. He defends takedowns at 62 percent which is okay. However, the few times that I have seen him taken down, he has scrambled up very well unless he gets body triangled. I also like that Gordon lands a lot of ground-and-pound in top position. He also fought off Grant Dawson for a while in their matchup.
Gordon is also a decent submission grappler. He is a black belt in BJJ and trained for a long time with John Danaher which is an impressive rank to have. He doesn’t have many submission wins in his career and I don’t consider him a dangerous offensive submission artist. However, he is positionally sound in BJJ and has actually only been submitted one time in 35 professional fights.
Overall, I respect Gordon. He will never be champion but he has good metrics, is well-rounded, and has good cardio.
Gordon will be taking on Rafa Garcia. I consider Garcia a wrestle-boxer. He will strike a bit and look to land takedowns. Other than that, there isn’t a ton of depth to his game. I think his best asset is his toughness and that he tries very hard. He will compete hard for three rounds. He is a tough guy.
Garcia is an okay tough boxer. However, I don’t consider him skillful and he kind of just relies on toughness. He lands 4.01 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.47 in return. He is an adequate boxer but nothing special either.
Garcia does at least willingly wrestle. He actually lands 3.21 takedowns per 15 minutes which is good. However, a lot of his takedowns have come against weak competition. I don’t think he is all that skilled as a wrestler. He is just tenacious and tough which isn’t a bad thing. However, more skilled grapplers should be fine against him.
Garcia defends takedowns at 77 percent which is good and he does work up decently well too. He did get dominated on the mat by Grant Dawson which there is no shame in. However, he also had some sketchy moments on the mat vs Drakkar Klose.
Garcia is just a low tier UFC talent. He is semi well-rounded, is tough, and will fight hard. However, he isn’t particularly good at anything either.
Overall, both Gordon and Garcia are similar in the sense that they are both generalists who don’t thrive anywhere but don’t have major holes either. They both will also fight hard for 15 minutes and not slow down.
The issue is I just think Gordon is probably a little better at everything. Gordon is probably the better striker and grappler. I imagine Gordon can just mildly outstrike Garcia over the fifteen minutes and maybe mix in a takedown or so.
I do think this fight will extend. Both guys are tough and both aren’t very dangerous. I also do think Garcia is at least decent enough to make this competitive as well. So this could be a close decision at the end of the day.
Overall though, I just think Gordon is a little better and he has better metrics against better competition. My guess is these guys generally strike for most of the fight and Gordon gets the better of it. I think both guys could land takedowns. However, I don’t think Garcia can do much to Gordon on the mat. I don’t really expect Gordon to dominate on the mat either.
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On DraftKings, I have mixed feelings about Gordon but he’s a bit expensive at 9.1k.
What I typically like about Gordon is his pacing, and when he wins, he often smashes. In recent wins, Gordon has scored 115, 119, 101, 74, 95, 121 and 111. Only the first two scores mentioned there were in quick finishes, and the other five were in decisions.
From my eye, what really separates Gordon is when he can accrue control time, either in the clinch or on the mat. He can absolutely rack up non-significant strikes in those situations.
As one example, against Chris Fishgold, Gordon landed 44 sig. strikes and three takedowns, but he also accrued 10:22 of control and an additional 200ish non-significant strikes for a DK result of 121.
So, Gordon is tricky here because is this a fantastic matchup? I wouldn’t say so. He’s +350 to win ITD and the fight could be competitive.
Purely at distance Gordon will land a bunch, but that’s not enough to get me excited. I think he needs 2-3 takedowns, lots of control and those non-sig. strikes to get there. Garcia defends at 77 percent but has been taken down twice by Klose and three times by Levy, so projecting Gordon for a couple takedowns makes sense. Garcia didn’t give up much control there though.
Clearly, Gordon isn’t an outright priority and I don’t see a super clear path to him smashing. However, he’s generally scored very well in wins and he carries a style that can get there without a big finish.
Mixing in Gordon or using him as a semi-contrarian target in this range is probably where I land. There are other bigger names and I’d rather target others for finishing equity, but I ultimately wouldn’t be too surprised if Gordon found himself near another 100 point score in a fun, higher-paced win.
Garcia is priced down to 7.1k and is another tricky one.
Garcia tends to score pretty well too because he’s averaging 3.21 takedowns per 15 minutes and in wins, has reached 2, 0, 6, 3 and 7 takedowns. In close losses he’s also landed 3 and 5 takedowns.
I don’t think Garcia is beating Gordon, but the fight could be high paced, and Garcia could land 80+ significant strikes and 2-3 takedowns. Suddenly, a 90 point win is in play for Garcia.
Garcia really can’t be a priority here and he’s only +500 to win ITD. I guess I’d rather bet on Gordon winning and therefore come in generally light on Garcia.
However, I do like the pacing of the fight and Gordon isn’t the most consistent guy. Garcia at least produces offense. He’s worth some low-end exposure ultimately but rates out a little better as a floor type given the likelihood the fight goes the distance.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Gordon by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Kelvin Gastelum vs. Dustin Stoltzfus
Fight Odds: Gastelum -253, Stoltzfus +210
Odds to end ITD: +140
DraftKings Salaries: Gastelum 9k, Stoltzfus 7.2k
Weight Class: 185
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a fun fight in the middleweight division as Kelvin Gastelum and Dustin Stoltzfus will bang it out on Saturday night.
Gastelum is basically a wrestle-boxer. He is a decent striker, and has some quick hands and can throw in decent combination. He lands 3.67 significant strikers per minute and absorbs 3.49 in return. He defends strikes at 57 percent. Those aren’t great metrics. However, it is still a positive striking ratio and Gastelum’s competition has been stellar. I consider him a formidable striker who can hold his own in this division. He has reasonable power but nothing crazy.
Gastelum is also an okay wrestler. He lands 1.05 takedowns per 15 minutes. He is capable of landing spot takedowns and getting some positional control occasionally. However, I don’t consider him much more than average as a grappler, and he will struggle with grappling upside against above-average grapplers.
Gastelum is also very durable. He has never been knocked out in his pro career. He is a very tough guy and he is going to be a hard guy to put away.
I do think Gastelum has some sneaky weaknesses as a defensive wrestler and grappler though. He defends takedowns at 58 percent which is okay and he can fend off takedowns here and there. Gastelum isn’t a bad defensive wrestler. However, he can still be taken down and we have seen him struggle with guys who have heavy top games. He has allowed guard passes and submissions in the past. Generally, only very good grapplers have owned Gastelum on the mat but I have always been semi skeptical and nervous of that part of Gastelum’s game.
Gastelum will be taking on Dustin Stolzfus. Stoltzfus isn’t great as he is 3-6 in the UFC. However, he has fought good competition and is pretty tough and is maybe a little underrated.
Stolzfus is coming off a hard fought decision loss to Nursulton Ruziboev where the power of Ruziboev was a little too much for him. Stoltzfus’ last win was a knock out vs Marc-Andre Barriault. It was crazy to see because Stoltzfus isn’t known for his power really and Barriault is generally a pretty tough guy.
I would label Stoltzfus mostly as a grappler. He is a decently competent grappler, but I do have some concerns with his lack of athleticism.
As a striker, Stoltzfus is not that great. He lands 3.14 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.14 in return. He defends strikes at 47 percent. He can kind of go through the motions. However, he isn’t particularly skilled. He will try hard though. He is also tough but was knocked out by Abus Magomedov and Brunno Ferreira in round one. Those guys are dangerous so I don’t consider them awful knockout losses, but Stoltzfus can be hurt.
As a grappler, Stoltzfus is okay. He comes from a submission grappling background and is mildly to moderately competent on the mat. He lands 2.26 takedowns per 15 minutes, and can kind of float on top and can submit weak grapplers on the mat. I still don’t think Stoltzfus’ takedowns are great or explosive, but they aren’t bad.
I also at least consider Stoltzfus tough too. He can be knocked out. However, if you don’t put him out cold, he will come forward and try to land strikes and try to land takedowns and try really hard for 15 minutes.
As far as this matchup goes, I favor Gastelum on the feet. Gastelum has a durability advantage and will probably land the more impactful shots throughout the duration. I also just think Gastelum is way more likely to win by knockout. I honestly favor Gastelum for those reasons.
I don’t completely count out Stoltzfus here though. Stoltzfus can probably keep some of the striking competitive. I also think he could take Gastelum down. The takedowns may not come easy. However, I do think if Stoltzfus is persistent, he can probably land a couple of takedowns here. I also think Stoltzfus has a decent top game and could maybe get some good positions on the mat against Gastelum and threaten him there.
Overall though, I do think Gastelum will do enough to neutralize the grappling of Stoltzfus. Gastelum can probably defend the majority of the takedowns and at least survive on the mat or maybe reverse position. I don’t think this is a mismatch though, and I think Stoltzfus could have some occasional moments here.
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On DraftKings, Gastelum is priced up to 9k which probably puts him in the situation of needing a knockout.
He has approached or surpassed 100 points in a decision before, but those results came with 4 and 6 takedowns landed, which I don’t think is a very realistic outcome in this matchup.
To be fair, Stoltzfus is only defending takedowns at 46 percent which is bad, but Gastelum still only averages about 1 takedown per 15 minutes and those bigger results mentioned above are literally the only two times he’s landed two or more takedowns in a fight since 2014.
Gastelum will carry some knockout upside though, and Soltzfus has been finished early in two of his last three losses. Gastelum is +175 to win ITD.
I just don’t particularly trust Gastelum anymore. He’s never fully taken his career seriously and is a dwarf in this weight class. He’ll be way smaller than Stoltzfus.
I do think there are paths to a ceiling for Gastelum but it would be impossible for me to prioritize him. There are a couple of cheaper options I like more, and a few more expensive options. I don’t mind putting him into a tier with Gordon, for example, of options who I’d occasionally mix in.
I don’t expect Gastelum to be very popular on this slate and perhaps he’s a worthwhile pivot, but I wouldn’t aim to take a real stance in either direction.
Stoltzfus is priced down to 7.2k and I only have mild interest.
That interest would come in the form of grappling, where Gastelum was recently taken down five times by Brady and subbed. It’s a different class of grappler in theory, but Gastelum is only defending takedowns at 56 percent and Stoltzfus is kind of underrated there.
I think Stoltzfus is a fine secondary option. I can’t muster enough energy to be excited by him, and he probably loses, but he’s a much bigger guy and can attack takedowns, where we’ve seen him dominate before.
Stoltzfus is +650 to win ITD but I think a competitive decision with 2-4 takedowns is in play. At 7.2k and a low public ownership, I don’t mind him as a mix in.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Gastelum by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Alexander Hernandez vs. Diego Ferreira
Fight Odds: Ferreira -119, Hernandez +102
Odds to end ITD: -120
DraftKings Salaries: Hernandez 8.4k, Ferreira 7.8k
Weight Class: 155
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a banger here between UFC veterans Alexander Hernandez and Carlos Diego Ferreira.
Hernandez is now on a three fight win streak and is coming off a first round KO win over Chase Hooper.
Hernandez is an okay fighter. He lands 4.36 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.60 in return. He is capable of landing some big shots with some blitzes. He has some speed too, but other than that I don’t think he is particularly good or skilled on the feet. I do think his overall pace on the feet has looked better in a few of his more recent matchups though. He obviously has some pop early too and is capable of early knockout.
Hernandez has struggled going through adversity in fights. We have seen him broken on numerous occasions including by Billy Quarantillo, Drew, Dober, and Donald Cerrone.
Again though, I do think he looked tougher down the stretch in his last few fights.
As a grappler, Hernandez is competent but not great. He comes from a wrestling background. He lands 1.20 takedowns per 15 minutes. He outwrestled Olivier Aubin-Mercier to a grinding decision which was his best 15-minute performance to date. He also took Drew Dober down three times but couldn’t keep Dober on the mat and was eventually knocked out. I do think Hernandez can outgrapple weak to below-average grapplers in this division but that’s about it.
Defensively as a grappler, Hernandez is pretty solid. He defends takedowns at 73 percent. He is not very easy to take and hold down, but he can get his back taken and beat on the mat and body triangled especially when he tires out.
Hernandez will be taking on Carlos Diego Ferreira. CDF is a very skilled fighter. He has a great gas tank, and is very aggressive on the feet and a good submission grappler.
As a grappler, that is where CDF thrives. He is an extremely dangerous submission grappler and a BJJ black belt. He isn’t the best takedown artist though. He only lands 0.86 takedowns per 15 minutes and only attempts a little over three takedowns per fight. However, once he is on the mat, he is very capable of getting the back or obtaining different submissions. He is also just tricky on his own back with his sweeps and leg entanglements.
CDF is also a capable striker. His striking success is more predicated on pace than anything else, but I consider him very competent and underrated as a striker. He lands 4.82 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.46 in return. He has good metrics overall and even gave good fighters like Beneil Dariush a run for their money on the feet. He also has power and recently knocked out Michael Johnson.
CDF still showed he had that pace against Mateusz Rebecki as well. He beat the breaks off of Rebecki and obtained a finish in round three. He landed 123 significant strikes in that matchup. CDF was recently outgrappled by Grant Dawson but Dawson is one of the best MMA grapplers in this weight class so I don’t fault CDF much for that loss.
CDF is old though. He is now 40 years old so I do question his form. The thing is he showed that he still has striking pace against Rebecki. That is honestly enough for me to pick him over Hernandez in this matchup.
I know Hernandez has looked better lately. However, I still think there is a gasser in there and a guy who does not like to be hit. I really think if CDF survives early, CDF has what it takes to pace and break Hernandez. I also don’t think Hernandez can easily outgrapple CDF and wrestle to safety like he did against Holobaugh recently. So I am going to pick CDF to just win this down the stretch and eventually hurt Hernandez and put him away.
I still don’t have full confidence in CDF. CDF is old and Hernandez could easily land a big knockout punch early. Hernandez could just straight win a decision by staying competitive standing and landing some takedowns if CDF has really aged. I still just don’t trust Hernandez vs good pace fighters though and the CDF I saw vs Rebecki should probably beat Hernandez.
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On DraftKings, we actually have a bit of a value spot with Ferreira at 7.8k.
He opened as the dog but is now sitting at -119 to win, and I agree with the movement.
Hernandez really hasn’t proven much to me in his recent wins, and I think he’s being a bit overvalued (or was) based on his last knockout over Hooper.
I do still think Hernandez could hurt Ferreira early, and a lot of Hernandez’ historic success has come early. But Ferreira pushes a solid pace that Hernandez has historically not dealt with well, and Ferreira is a much better submission grappler.
Given the historics, I think Ferreira could find another finish here, and I’m willing to play him at 7.8k.
He’ll clearly get some love based on his line movement, but he’s also +230 to win ITD and I think has finishing equity down the stretch. He could be among the stronger dog targets on the slate.
This is far from a lock, but I agree with Tim on the matchup outlook and wiping out Rebecki late is a super positive sign. I’d like moderate exposure to Ferreira personally but it’s possible the field will be rostering him at a similar rate.
Hernandez is a pretty solid target at 8.4k.
Not only will he carry leverage against Ferreira, but Ferreira has never lost a fight in which he wasn’t knocked out, or gave up 3+ takedowns. I think both of those outcomes are very much in play for Hernandez, and he’s +235 to win ITD which is decent.
I still am expecting a decent ownership floor here based on his last win, but the more line movement toward Ferreira, the more leverage he should carry. Just because I like Ferreira and am in on Ferreira, doesn’t mean I will avoid Hernandez.
Ferreira will be the priority here but I think Hernandez is a quality upside target and the added leverage makes him a worthwhile secondary option in general.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Ferreira by TKO, RD 3 (Confidence=Low)
Santiago Luna vs. Quang Le
Fight Odds: Luna -130, Le +111
Odds to end ITD: +110
DraftKings Salaries: Luna 8.3k, Le 7.9k
Weight Class: 135
I’m actually pretty excited for the debut of Santiago Luna, who will take on Quang Le this weekend.
I hadn’t heard of Luna prior to taping him, but immediately, I’m thinking OK this kid can actually wrestle pretty well, which generally isn’t the case for the Mexican regional scene.
Luna is only 21 years old and 6-0 as a pro, and apparently he has some solid wrestling credentials already. He’s a 4x National Champion in Mexico, a 2x Pan Am Qualifier and a California State Qualifier. He carries the nickname “Border Boy” as he fights out of Tijuana but goes to high school in San Ysidro on the border.
Personally, I think Luna is a pretty solid wrestler on tape and that’s clearly his strength. He primarily looks for double legs, and he’s really strong at body lock takedowns. He’s a decent athlete, and he can use some physicality in those exchanges to suplex opponents as well.
On top, Luna is pretty strong. He has a good back take and has four wins by submission, I believe all of them coming by RNC. He can also land ground-and-pound.
The trouble is that he’s still super young, and really isn’t facing the best defensive wrestlers on the regionals. So I’m hesitant to say how well his wrestling will translate to the UFC level.
On the feet, Luna still looks green to me. Especially in his early tape of which he’s 19 years old, he just looks a little vulnerable. His head is sitting on the center line, and I wouldn’t be shocked if he got hurt.
He also seems to get labored in extended exchanges.
Still, I’ve never actually seen him hurt, and in more recent fights, he’s knocking guys dead with his hands too. His boxing looks pretty crisp and he can kick as well. I still don’t love him defensively and I don’t think he’s a volume specialist, but his offensive boxing might end up alright.
I have seen him fight into round three which is where he’s won by KO. So I don’t think he’s just an early or bust type of fighter. However I do expect more of his success to come early in fights.
Overall, I am worried Luna is a bit too green, but he looks like an interesting prospect. He should be able to dominate the weaker grapplers, but it’s possible that’s all he can do just yet, and I think Le will be a good test for him out of the gate.
Le is coming off his first UFC win over Gaston Bolanos, where he turned into a wrestler himself and landed four takedowns, submitting Bolanos in the second round.
I don’t think Bolanos is particularly good but it’s still nice to see from Quang Le, who also won a round off of Chris Gutierrez from wrestling in his UFC debut.
Le is more of a karate based striker though, and I think he excels at distance. He’s kind of a sniper and he’s not a particularly high-volume striker, but his hands are decent too.
In a small UFC sample, Le is only landing 2.70 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 4.53 per minute with a 47 percent defensive rate. He fought OK with Xiao Long for a while but Long proved superior and knocked him out in round three.
Le wasn’t able to do much at distance against Gutierrez either, which makes sense.
I think Le is also a capable offensive wrestler and he’s a purple belt in BJJ, with some back-taking ability. He’s just not a great offensive ground threat, so I wouldn’t expect him to have much success against quality opposition.
I’m more curious about his defense heading into this bout of which we haven’t seen him taken down in the UFC. On the regionals, he fought a few opponents who tried to wrestle him, and some had success.
There’s one fight against Gueirreiro in which Le gives up a bunch of takedowns, but he generally defends well and scrambles up to his feet pretty well. I honestly wish he was worse because I’d be excited to bet on Luna in this spot.
Instead, I’m unsure. Le is not a pushover defensively. I do think Luna is legit and I do think Luna can probably find the body lock and drag Le to the ground. On top, Luna should have some advantages.
I’m really not sold Luna can hold Le down for long periods of time though, and I’d expect Le to find his way back to his feet. There will be back taking upside for Luna which he probably should latch onto, but Le isn’t easy to finish there either.
I’m primarily worried about Luna failing early and then getting tired, of which he could be vulnerable on the feet. But Le still fights at a slower pace, and Le’s already been knocked out in the UFC.
Luna is a bit taller and longer than Le, I think, and shouldn’t be outmatched on the feet. I could see striking rounds being competitive although I think Le is technically better, Luna may have more firepower.
I have not seen Luna get taken down himself, so that’s another X factor. I’d guess his defensive wrestling is strong and his BJJ looks fine to me, so I’m not too worried about it. But there’s always some potential there for error, especially when we haven’t seen it.
Ultimately, Le has paths to victory here. He’s facing a young debutant who is still clearly green. But I think Luna is the better wrestler and I’m hopeful he can at least hang around on the feet, so I’ll lean toward Luna to get the job done outright.
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On DraftKings, Luna is the side I’d much rather play, given his wrestling abilities.
Again, this is not the easiest spot on paper for a wrestler, and Luna may even get shut out. However, he could also land 2-3 takedowns in the first round and win by sub, which is his upside.
I don’t think I’d bet on a finish here, as Le is tough, and Luna is only +205 to win ITD. But Luna has never gone the distance, so he’s clearly capable of finishing in multiple areas.
I’ve also seen him land several takedowns over the course of three rounds, so even in a decision win, I’d bet on Luna landing 2-5 takedowns with a decent amount of control. If it falls on the lower end of that spectrum, he’d be a bust, but the higher end of the spectrum would be strong for the price tag.
You don’t have to shove your chips in on this kid as he’s not a guarantee. But I do like solid wrestlers and Luna seems to be that. I’m willing to take some fliers and I wouldn’t mind being a bit overweight to the field assuming the public doesn’t consider him an obvious target.
Le is priced at 7.9k and probably needs the knockout.
I suppose he could also get there with wrestling, though that outcome is tougher to predict.
The best case for him would be stuffing all takedowns early and watching Luna gas out, to where Le could maybe push the pedal down and hurt him. It is possible.
I just think it’s a tougher path to reach a ceiling, and I do think Luna will have some success early. So I’m not particularly high on Le in this spot.
Le is also only +250 to win ITD so he won’t rate out incredibly well.
There’s merit to using Le as a secondary target, or mixing him in if you’re already going to be in on Luna. If I had a large portfolio, I’d definitely include some exposure to Le.
He’s just not a real priority with a smaller portfolio and I’m not convinced his path to a ceiling is easily achievable.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Luna by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Jose Daniel Medina vs. Dusko Todorovic
Fight Odds: Todorovic -392, Medina +314
Odds to end ITD: +115
DraftKings Salaries: Todorovic 9.3k, Medina 6.9k
Weight Class: 185
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Jose Medina’s a Contender Series alum but from the 2023 season and one of the rare signings of the Series coming in a losing 30-27 effort. He’s still in search of his first UFC win after dropping his first two bouts in the promotion – he’s 11-5 as a pro. Dusko Todorovic’s a fellow Contender Series alum but from back in 2019 where he’s been a hot and cold fighter throughout his run and has had struggles with knee injuries – he’s 3-6 in the UFC and 12-6 as a pro.
The striking component:
Despite having 16 fights under his belt, our footage on Medina isn’t vast.
In what we have, it hasn’t been the prettiest picture. He’s a plodding guy that’s a negative athlete and largely one dimensional in his boxing.
He also doesn’t fight at much of a pace, isn’t an established clear minute winner and hasn’t been a perennial distance power threat.
He’ll keep a higher guard at times but also walks into shots and has struggled with kicks, more specifically in his last couple fights where he’s gotten hurt to the body.
On the Contender Series, he just got outworked by Gadzhiyasulov where he was outlanded 67-16 at distance in a fight that had eight minutes of time at range.
In his debut, he got outworked as well getting outlanded at distance 57-3 by Reese. Most recently, he was knocked out early for the first time in his career by Gautier.
Overall, Medina’s best attribute is really his toughness but I don’t see a ton of positives with his striking game outside of him kind of just existing and occasionally returning fire.
Dusko plays a mid-range pressure boxing game where he’ll primarily excel when he can stay on opponents and keep his volume up – he lands 4.8 SLpM at 57%.
He’s finished the overwhelming majority of his fights via KO/TKO but I wouldn’t say he’s a “pure power” guy – it’s more so the accuracy/timing that’s coming on his shots that were putting guys out regionally.
He did piece Wright up in the 2nd and hurt him badly, but everyone largely does that Wright and Dusko still doesn’t have an official UFC knockdown.
Defensively is where my main issues come with Dusko.
He’s a guy that will fight with his hands down and largely rely on his footwork and head movement to try to keep him safe. Now, over the near entirety of his career, it had held up, however, when he got to the UFC level, it hasn’t been the case.
He really struggled with straight power shots of Soriano and couldn’t evade getting hurt multiple times and eventually finished.
Against Rodrigues, despite keeping a higher work rate, he just couldn’t track down Rodrigues where he swung and missed a lot getting effectively outstruck and nearly 2x’d on strikes over the course of 15 minutes. Against Chidi, he just got blasted with a massive elbow off a clinch break.
He blew his knee out early against Duncan and then got creamed in his comeback fight against Abdul-Malik who put it on him putting him away in the first round.
Most recently, he got tired in the Reese fight where he didn’t throw much and was ultimately outlanded 43-22 at distance, dropping the latter two rounds.
Overall, it doesn’t appear that Dusko is going to “alter” his defensive strategy and still rely on that hands down, movement-based style which is going to continue to give me continued pause with him going forward. But given the right style matchups, Dusko can still have standing success in the UFC.
How it plays out: Off the top, both guys possess essentially the same measurables so not much to report there. Despite some of Dusko’s evident flaws, this is a winnable striking matchup for him assuming he just produces offense. Dusko’s had to fight many tall, rangy guys or absolute units with bigger power components – aspects I don’t associate with Medina. So, Dusko should have a much easier time finding the target and I’m not as concerned about him getting flatlined here in comparison to other matchups – it’s still a middleweight fight so there’s some inherent variance on that front but assuming his work rate is up, he’s should outland Medina and is live to hurt him as well.
The wrestling/grappling component:
The ground’s been a bit jekyll and hyde for Medina as we’ve seen some weak spots from him, but it’s also been the primary component of his career success.
He’s a BJJ purple belt but his wrestling isn’t very good where a good chunk of his success is just coming against more incompetent opponents.
But he’s shown to be stronger from top positions at times, leading to a handful of submission wins or positional TKOs.
His defensive wrestling has generally been poor and was exploited by Gadzhiyasulov on Contender Series where he was taken down six times on seven attempts, getting controlled for six minutes. Reese also took him down five times on nine attempts in his debut.
In his defense, he doesn’t necessarily accept positions as he’s shown some scrambling abilities regionally to work out of positions and reshoot.
However, he also gives his back like clockwork to get back to the feet as per evidence in multiple fights. He’s been submitted once but it was in a fight I wasn’t able to view and was all the way back in 2018.
Overall, Medina’s semi-capable enough to have success against incompetent fighters but will run into bigger issues now fighting at a UFC level both offensively and defensively.
Dusko isn’t anything special as a wrestler but he mixed it in against Gavasoli (regionally) and Townsend in his debut, finishing him via ground-and-pound.
Against Pitolo, he got stuck in a guillotine which found him in top position after being able to defend – he finished shortly after with ground and pound. He had some grinding success on Chidi early but struggled to really flatten him at the same time.
When he’s been taken down, he’s shown an effective butterfly guard to sweep and work back to the feet.
He showed solid getups specifically against Rodrigues, only getting controlled for less than 1:30 on three TDs – impressive given Rodrigues more extensive grappling background.
However, he lost the round via wrestling to Wright where Wright went 3/3 and controlled him for nearly the entire round – pretty embarrassing to be honest considering Wright doesn’t conventionally outwrestle anyone really. He was able to finish Wright off via GNP but after Wright got hurt and pretty much just fell over from exhaustion.
He was positionally TKO’d on the floor by Abdul-Malik after eating damage on the feet and fishing for legs.
Most recently, he won the overall wrestling exchanges against Reese, taking him down four times and winning round one, but his success started to falter – he did get two minutes of control on Reese in round two which made that round interesting to score but he didn’t do much with it so some of the shots Reese landed in that round two swung the round his way.
Overall, Dusko’s not a great offensive wrestler only getting his TDs at 17% but he can shoot in volume, be stronger from top position, has a BJJ black belt and good GNP when he opens up.
How it plays out: The 1st round of the Wright fight is always a bearish indicator on the defensive front for Dusko but he worked up quickly in the Rodrigues and Reese fights when he was taken down and I just view him as the better holistic ground fighter in this matchup. While Dusko’s TD accuracy number is poor, so is Medina’s TDD mark at 31%. Point being, you don’t need to be a great wrestler to take Medina down and I’ve seen better things on the jiu-jitsu front from Dusko in comparison to Medina. As noted, Medina will scramble a bit so I don’t necessarily think it’s a “one TD is a round” type of thing necessarily, although Dusko could smash if he gets mount.
As noted, Dusko has a healthy number of issues in his game but realistically this is one of the more winnable matchups he’s had thus far. I don’t really know where Medina is tangibly better than Dusko outside of maybe durability and cardio. But even there, I don’t think Medina has a ton of conventional power and is relatively slow at the same time so Dusko “should” be able to evade in this spot. Then on the cardio front, Medina’s only 1-3 to the Decision and has also looked tired in extended fights so he’s not Lance Armstrong himself. Long story short, Dusko really should win this fight. If he can’t beat Jose Medina, he needs to call it a day.
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On DraftKings, Todorovic is priced up to 9.3k which is a rare sight but one that makes sense given the opponent.
Medina, as noted, is known for being tough while taking punishment. Not necessarily known for skills. And now he’s coming off actually getting knocked out in round one which is also a scary look.
Todorovic should be better than Medina everywhere but that does not make him safe. I’ve always had major durability concerns with him as well, so if Medina hurt him, I wouldn’t be shocked.
Either way, we’re hoping for a finish from Todorovic, who will also carry wrestling equity. The fact that he just landed four takedowns on Reese gives me real hope he can actually wrestle Medina down consistently too.
Todorovic is only +165 to win ITD though is pretty interesting. I get that Medina is tough but I just don’t like the fact that he eats damage, and with an additional ground threat, I do think Todorovic can find a stoppage.
I’d be willing to play him personally, especially if the public is going to be scared off. There are bigger names in this range like Suarez and Silva, and I like paying down into the 8ks as well. Todorovic doesn’t have to be an outright priority.
However, I think he carries some solid upside in a win. His only three UFC wins scored 106, 119 and 120. I will spread my exposure out in this range but Todorovic is firmly in play in my mind and may end up a touch sneaky.
Medina at 6.9k doesn’t interest me a whole lot.
However, I do think he has some KO potential as Todorovic has been knocked out early and brutally multiple times. Medina isn’t really a knockout artist, which is why he’s +525 to win ITD, but there’s enough variance in striking exchanges that I wouldn’t completely overlook him.
Medina is only going to rate out as a dart throw type of play, with no real floor and not much win equity on paper. He’s not very skilled. I still think he’s worth a couple of fliers in case he happens to land a random big shot and put Todorovic out.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Todorovic by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium)
Claudio Puelles vs. Joaquim Silva
Fight Odds: Puelles -112, Silva +104
Odds to end ITD: -105
DraftKings Salaries: Puelles 8.2k, Silva 8k
Weight Class: 155
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have an interesting fight here between UFC veteran Joaquim Silva and grappling dependent fighter Claudio Puelles.
Joaquim Silva gave a decent account of himself against Arman Tsarukyan a couple of years back. Although Silva was mostly outmatched, he did make Tsarukyan earn that win and even hurt Tsarukyan at one point in the fight.
Silva is generally a striker. He has a lot of power. However, I don’t totally love his process of winning rounds on the feet. He lands 3.66 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.53 in return. So he is a bit over-reliant on his power because if he is not hurting his opponents, he is a liability to drop rounds.
I do consider Silva moderately dangerous on the feet though. I also think he has good cardio and can maintain power for an entire fight. He badly hurt Tsarukyan in round three, knocked down Klose in round three in his last matchup, and knocked out Jared Gordon in round three years ago. I like that Silva is dangerous for an entire fight.
Silva defends takedowns at 69 percent which is okay, but good grapplers can have success against him. I do think he is physical though and does an okay job of working back to his feet. He hasn’t been submitted in his pro career either which could be the X factor in this matchup vs Puelles. I think Silva is just a guy who can defend some takedowns and work up, but he will probably surrender a couple takedowns against any decent grappler.
Silva will be taking on Claudio Puelles who was last seen in the cage over a year ago losing a split decision to Fares Ziam.
Claudio Puelles really paid for being a one trick pony a couple of fights ago against Dan Hooker. Puelles couldn’t get takedowns or obtain a leg lock and got the absolute shit kicked out of him and eventually finished with a body kick.
Puelles lands 3.17 takedowns per 15 minutes and attempts about nine takedowns per 15 minutes. I consider him a decent takedown artist but not a good either. I actually don’t think Puelles looked bad vs Ziam. I think Ziam is an underrated grappler and Puelles did land 7 takedowns and obtain 7:14 of control.
Puelles is decent at floating on top once he lands his takedowns though. I don’t consider him an elite submission threat. However, he is capable and has a few knee bar wins in the UFC. In fact, his only three wins by submission in the UFC have come by knee bar. He has a path to victory by submission or by control at this level. I just don’t trust it vs anyone good though.
Puelles can be taken down himself as well. He defends takedowns at 60 percent and can be controlled on his back and concede ground-and-pound. He will play guard a bit and look for leg lock / knee bar related sweeps or submissions. It puts him at risk to lose rounds.
I don’t consider Puelles a good striker at all and is probably one of the worst strikers on the roster. He lands 1.56 significant strikes per 15 minutes and absorbs 2.78 in return. He has been outlanded at range in every fight of his UFC career, including to Jordan Leavitt. Puelles can put together some okay straight punches and body kicks. However, striking is just not his thing.
I am going to go with Silva here. I think the main reason I am picking Silva to win is because he has never been submitted in his career, and I don’t think submissions will come as easily for Puelles here as they have in other matchups. Silva is a BJJ black belt and my guess is he can stifle the submission attempts of Puelles which limits one of Puelles’ most reliable normal paths to victory. Maybe Puelles gets a sub but I am leaning against it.
I still do think Puelles could land takedowns and obtain some control though. Puelles has okay takedowns and Silva can be taken down a bit.
The issue is Silva is pretty physical and I think Puelles will at least fail on some takedowns and Silva can probably reverse position or scramble up at times too. I also think Silva could get on top of Puelles and probably land ground-and-pound.
In those stretches where Puelles isn’t sitting in top position, I think Silva will just land damage and Puelles won’t land much of any. Silva could knock Puelles out or just land more damage if this goes 15 minutes. I think the damage upside for Silva is the main reason why I am going to pick him. So my pick is Silva to minimize the grappling enough and land the more damaging shots,
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On DraftKings, this looks like a pretty binary fight to me and I’m pretty willing to play it.
Silva is priced at 8k and I think is pretty likely to score a knockout in a win. Puelles has been KOd multiple times in the UFC, and he just doesn’t offer much on the feet.
Silva is a pretty heavy hitter and I think has real KD equity if Puelles can’t get him down.
Silva is only +275 to win ITD which is pretty interesting, and my gut says there’s value on that. I don’t necessarily trust him as a fighter or knockout artist, but it really comes down to Puelles being vulnerable standing.
So especially if the field is not going to be high on Silva, I really like him as an upside target. He has finishing equity in my mind and it could come early. He could also land takedowns or do work from top position.
There’s risk of course here, but I’m very willing to play into a binary matchup in the mid-range, and I wouldn’t mind being overweight on Silva.
Puelles actually has shown a surprisingly low ceiling.
He’s won by submission three times in the UFC and scored 93, 84 and 64. In his decision wins, he’s scored 99 and 86.
It honestly makes me nervous though Puelles is so grappling dependent, I think he can reach higher marks. At the same time, he just landed 7 takedowns against Ziam and landed 4 significant strikes in 15 minutes, so that is part of the problem.
I just feel like Puelles will need grappling domination to win. Many takedowns landed. A sub. In theory that should score 90+ with upside on top but his style hasn’t produced those results with consistency.
He is +230 to win ITD here and has better finishing marks than Silva, so he could be more popular outright. I don’t mind prioritizing him as grappling dependency in theory should give him a strong floor for 8.2k.
I suppose there’s some risk here with an extended fight, and the fight is actually -125 to go the distance, which surprises me a bit. In a decision, I’d be less confident the winner will smash.
But given the binary nature of the matchup, I’m still willing to target this fight moderately, and I’d only aim for a slight lean in either direction.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Silva by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Low)
Tatiana Suarez vs. Amanda Lemos
Fight Odds: Suarez -432, Lemos +342
Odds to end ITD: -170
DraftKings Salaries: Suarez 9.4k, Lemos 6.8k
Weight Class: 115
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
I was very disappointed in Tatiana Suarez’s championship performance against Weill Zhang earlier this year, so it will be interesting to see if she can bounce back this weekend against Amanda Lemos.
I really thought Suarez was going to defeat Zhang. In Suarez’s prime, I do think Suarez could have won that fight. However, I clearly overestimated Suarez’s form. The injuries and time off clearly took a toll on Suarez and her physicality and athleticism looked declined.
Suarez still won round one vs Zhang by landing takedowns and obtaining top time. I also thought Suarez had some good takedown attempts later in the fight that would have taken down most of the division. However, Zhang’s physicality and improved wrestling was too much. I also just thought Suarez’s physicality and athleticism looked declined. I was also surprised Suarez could not scramble up from bottom position. That was not the same Suarez that battered Carla Esparza easily years back.
Even in Suarez’s current state, I still think she will win many fights in this division. In three rounds vs Zhang, Suarez would have still gotten a round which is better than most women in this division could do.
Coming from an advanced wrestling background, Suarez is still capable of landing takedowns and threatening with submissions. Her chain wrestling, back taking game and guillotine / front headlock series are still a threat. I think she will beat a lot of women in this division still. Her declined athleticism and bottom game scare me though.
Suarez is also not the most impactful striker in the world. She does a decent job staying out of danger and limiting engagements. If she gets stuck on the feet though she is at risk to lose many fights.
Overall, I just think Suarez is not what she was. However, she will still beat the majority of this weight class with her grappling. I just don’t think she is the queen of this division anymore, which she probably was a few years back.
Suarez will get a perfect test here against Amanda Lemos. Lemos is a power striker. She lands 2.89 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.46 in return. However, most of her strikes absorbed all came against Leslie Smith when Lemos was very tired and against good competition. The other was against Weili Zhang which is understandable. So I tend to think that she is a bit better of a striker than her metrics indicate.
I do expect Lemos to have success in this division with her striking because she is technical and powerful, and she is capable of hurting and knocking out opponents. She is a very heavy hitter and has rare power for this weight class.
Lemos is an okay offensive grappler. She lands 1.14 takedowns per 15 minutes and can float on top position a little bit. She also has random power guillotines in her game as well. She is a plus finisher for this weight class.
Lemos actually recently outwrestled Iasmin Lucindo and landed three takedowns and obtained enough top time in the first two rounds to win the fight. Lemos was outwrestled and held down in round three though.
Lemos is pretty physically strong. However, I will say that Lemos’ defensive grappling is an issue. She defends takedowns at 59 percent and was outgrappled by Zhang, Dern, and Jandiroba. Those are all elite grapplers and fighters so I can forgive Lemos to a degree. However, I just tend to think Lemos gives up soft takedowns and looks like a bit of a liability off her back. Lesser fighters will likely struggle to replicate what Zhang, Dern, and Jandiroba could do to Lemos. However, I do think decent grapplers can still take Lemos down and occasionally hold her down. You saw it against Lucindo in round three.
That is why I am going to pick Suarez to win. I don’t like Lemos’ defensive grappling and my guess is Suarez can land takedowns and obtain top time. I think Suarez has a really good chance for a submission too. I do ultimately just think Suarez will get the grappling going and win this fight.
I am not nearly as confident in Suarez as I would have been a few years ago though. If this fight is playing out on the feet for whatever reason, Lemos is a way more dangerous striker and should win those exchanges comfortably. Furthermore, I worry about Suarez’s physicality a bit too. Lemos could potentially stop a takedown and get on top where Suarez looked vulnerable vs Zhang. So there are ways for this fight to get sketchy for Suarez.
Ultimately though, Suarez just lost to the best strawweight ever. So it is a bit unfair to look at Suarez losing to Zhang and thinking Suarez now can’t outwrestle anyone else because of it. So I do think Suarez will bounce back and get this done.
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On DraftKings, Suarez will once again be an extremely viable target given her wrestling heavy style, but I’m pretty nervous.
In that championship loss, Suarez was essentially gassed out by round two. She was still getting in on the hips of Zhang but it wasn’t pure elite takedown defense that prevented Suarez from finishing the shots, it was the fact that Suarez had no energy at all. For that same reason she couldn’t defend takedowns either.
Lemos is a much worse wrestler than Zhang, and Suarez should be able to beat her. But I wouldn’t be shocked if Suarez gasses out again and gets beaten up down the stretch for another loss.
Suarez is priced up to 9.4k and is still among the best targets on the slate. She’s won seven times in the UFC and never scored worse than 99, with three of those wins scoring 115+.
Lemos doesn’t defend takedowns well, so Suarez should get her down early. And I think there’s a decent chance Suarez could simply land one takedown per round and control Lemos for the whole fight.
If Suarez can’t finish early though, she might just lay on top of Lemos for a decision, and I’m not sure how well that would score. But I do think 10+ minutes of control are in play here and if Suarez is attacking with ground strikes, she could rack up points. She’s also -125 to win ITD.
Essentially, I feel obligated to go back to the well on Suarez here. She’s shown elite safety and high upside in a win. While an optimal tournament score isn’t a lock, Suarez style produces fantasy points and there aren’t many guarantees in this range.
At the very least, Suarez is a strong play in all formats and should be considered when you have the salary to pay up. You could also argue she’s an outright priority above nearly every other option on the slate.
There are some form risks here for sure but targeting heavy grappling favorites in the long run is generally a successful strategy, so I’ll probably just cross my fingers and click her a bunch.
Lemos at 6.8k won’t carry any floor, and she’s likely to be held down for a while.
All bets are off if Suarez gasses though, and that’s what you are hoping for. If Suarez can’t get takedowns, she may just be a sitting duck, and Lemos could arguably even find a finish.
I don’t mind a sprinkle of Lemos for this reason. Clearly she’s not a priority at +350 to win and +550 to win ITD, but there is some variance in Suarez’ form and Lemos will carry a path to win.
I’m hopeful we’ll see a better Suarez here than in her last matchup but Lemos can be dangerous and a sprinkle of her in large fields makes sense.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Suarez by Decision (Confidence=Medium)
Jesus Aguilar vs. Luis Gurule
Fight Odds: Gurule -199, Aguilar +168
Odds to end ITD: +115
DraftKings Salaries: Gurule 8.7k, Aguilar 7.5k
Weight Class: 125
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Jesus Aguilar’s a Contender Series alum from the 2022 season. He drew a tough debut opponent in Tatsuro Taira but has outperformed many people’s expectations having won three of his last four fights, earning a 2nd UFC contact – he’s 3-2 in the UFC and 11-3 as a pro. Luis Gurule got a later start in MMA debuting a little over three years ago as a pro in his late 20s. But he climbed the southern regional ranks quickly and earned a contract on this past season of Contender Series with a win over Oklahoma State wrestling standout, Nick Piccininni. He’ll be looking to rebound off a KO loss in his UFC debut back in April – he’s 10-1 as a pro.
The striking component:
A good bulk of Aguilar’s fight time has been spent grappling for or against, so we still don’t have a large sample of him in space.
He’s a shorter, stocky 125 who operates kind of all the way out or all the way in.
He’ll fire power kicks at range but he’s not very technical and when he decides to come forward, it’s often unprocessed winging hooks or overhands. He will bite the mouthpiece and throw with intent but by and large hasn’t been very dangerous.
He’s obviously had a highlight reel KO over Shannon Ross but that was his 1st career KO and we know Ross has no durability.
At space, he’s been lower volume and will look to just pot shot with a straight or low kick. Defensively, he hasn’t faced much volume back his way and when either he or an opponent closes distance, that’s when the grappling situations begin to occur.
But given some of his reckless tendencies and the fact that he only has a 62” reach, I feel he’s going to struggle standing at the UFC level against better/more effective range strikers – once again, we’ve just gotten very little time and he’s primarily fought base grapplers.
Gurule’s a more compact flyweight standing 5’5” with a 64” reach.
His style reminds me a bit of an old school John Lineker where he looks to command the center, walk his opponents down, keep his work rate up and outwork guys over 15 minutes.
He’s primarily boxing based but has mixed kicks in more recently, specifically a stabbing front kick that has aided in sapping opponents’ cardio. He’s also shown good work in the clinch with knees and elbows that have sliced up a few past opponents.
I also like that he looks to string extended combinations together and has shown power elements as well with 5 of his 10 pro wins coming via KO/TKO – but he’s also not a guy that’s “chasing” the finish per say and has attritional elements to his game.
Defensively, he likes to play in the lip of the pocket and traditionally rolls with shots well, but he has been susceptible to more linear attacks although he’s been difficult to get extended combinations off against.
He has been dropped in a couple fights regionally, but they’ve been more flash knockdown scenarios where he’s shown quick recoverability in both instances.
However, the length and speed of Osbourne ultimately got him clipped in the 2nd round of his debut where he got put down.
Overall, Gurule isn’t the flashiest guy out there but brings a blue-collar striking style, has good hands, and I still think is rather durable despite the last result. He can push a solid pace over three rounds.
How it plays out: Both guys aren’t big flyweights but Gurule will have a slight size advantage of 1” in height and 2” in reach. While I don’t think Gurule is a world beater on the feet, he will be the best striker that Aguilar’s fought outside of Chairez who he fought back regionally. I just haven’t seen enough within Aguilar’s tape to suggest that he’ll win extended striking exchanges against more capable strikers who also aren’t complete gas bags. But as noted, Aguilar will swing and Gurule’s been hurt on more than one occasion so it’s not out of the realm for him to hurt Gurule – I still think his power profile is underwhelming and I feel good about saying that Gurule is the superior boxer that’s also more proven in extended striking fights.
The wrestling/grappling component:
I’m unsure of the official background of Aguilar but he’s more of a wrestler/grappler.
He’s been able to get the better of the floor exchanges in the majority of his fights but is nothing special as an offensive wrestler – he’s more of a volume type of guy.
BJJ wise, six of his seven submission wins have come via guillotines which is automatically a red flag to me. Instead of truly trying to stuff TDs, he’ll often go to his back with these attempts in which he has found lots of success to credit.
But he’s also gotten them stuffed before and will end up on bottom – we saw that specifically in his fight with Taira who was just a much better grappler than him – he ultimately succumbed to a top side triangle transition shortly after he lost control of the head.
He was also submitted in his 1st pro loss back in 2015 via RNC.
He conceded four TDs on eight attempts from Mendonca and was controlled for nearly nine minutes of that fight – I’m not sure how that fight was scored for Aguilar as it was a pretty clear 29-28 for Mendonca in my opinion.
He’s coming off getting taken down 11 times by Estevam as well where he got grinded for the first two rounds dropping that fight.
Aguilar has had his back taken in other fights as well but has been able to work out of those positions. I still don’t think he’s very good on top and will probably struggle to control more competent floor players at a UFC level as he’s always been submission over position.
Overall, Aguilar’s not completely a “meme” because he does have some offensive wrestling, but his defensive wrestling is poor (40% TDD) and he’ll give up bad positions. He is a scrambly guy though and will really make opponents work to hold him down.
Gurule comes from a wrestling background where he wrestled in high school and at the DII level in college.
Ironically, he prefers to stand and strike in his fights so he’s not really a proactive wrestler, but he has mixed TDs into a handful of fights where he’s shown off some good GNP but hasn’t been much of a control guy.
Although he did take Osbourne down in the first round of his UFC debut where he got two minutes of control, ultimately winning that round – he didn’t really go back to it much in round two though which I thought was interesting and hindsight kind of stupid considering the final result.
I’m unsure of his BJJ credentials but he does have one submission win which came in his Fury FC title fight prior to Contender Series – Silva overswung and he locked up an arm triangle shortly after but it wasn’t an extended ground sequence.
Gurule more so uses his wrestling for defensive purposes as he’s proven difficult not only to take down but hold down as well throughout his run.
He did conceded 10 TDs to Piccininni on DWCS but heavy context there in that Piccininni was a high level D1 wrestler and Gurule still only conceded 5.5 minutes of control time there – most of that was against the fence as well in Piccininni trying to get him down so he wasn’t conventionally held down for very long – pretty impressive.
He’s gotten his back taken on a few occasions but has always done the right things in terms of fighting hands and reversing positions relatively quickly – he’s also shown he can break body triangles which is a good skill to have.
Overall, Gurule’s kind of anomalous given his background where I wish he would actually use his wrestling offensively a bit more, but he’s going to be a hard guy to do anything meaningful on the ground against, because he generally has good TDD, submission defense and scrambling abilities.
How it plays out: The ground dynamic is funky in the sense that pretty much all of Aguilar’s fights turn into semi-scrambly grappling matches. So, part of what I’m curious about is how much Gurule will oblige in the grappling. But given what I referenced above with Piccininni really struggling to control Gurule who’s a high caliber wrestler, I really don’t see Aguilar exceeding that profile. Gurule has more top time equity and I also don’t think Aguilar’s guillotining him at much of a rate – the guy has no neck and is a main training partner of Brandon Royval who loves front chokes so I think he’ll be well prepared in that regard.
I’ve got to give props to Aguilar because the guy’s an absolute dog, has solid cardio and ultimately outperformed general expectations. But realistically, his game is kind of a mess. He’s lost to two of the better fighters he’s been booked against and I thought he lost the Mendonca fight so his two actual wins are Shannon Ross and Stewart Nicoll who aren’t UFC level. Gurule is coming off getting bonked but I honestly haven’t downgraded him much – Osbourne is a dangerous fighter when fresh that nearly beat Steve Erceg a few weeks back. It’s just a weird matchup in the sense that we haven’t seen Aguilar in extended striking exchanges against better strikes but we also haven’t seen Gurule in super scrambly types of fights, but I personally think he’ll be fine there and will be the better wrestler. For the reasons mentioned above, Gurule is the better fighter in my eyes so he’s my pick to win.
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On DraftKings, I don’t feel completely comfortable with this matchup.
I’ve targeted against Aguilar numerous times and it hasn’t always paid off. But he’s so defensively void and given his style, the winner of his matchups tend to score well.
Gurule is priced up to 8.7k and I think has some viability. The real problem is that I just am not sure how this fight is going to play out. If Gurule wins some distance exchanges and defends takedowns, he won’t exceed value.
But I do think he’s a better boxer than Aguilar and should have some knockout upside. He’s +225 to win ITD which is OK.
Aguilar doesn’t really defend takedowns either so that gives Gurule some wrestling upside as well. I’m just not sure he’ll try to wrestle and it could force him into scrambles that ultimately cost him.
So there’s a lot of risk here. The fight is likely going to be a mess. I don’t see one clear path for Gurule to smash. But the pace of the fight should be decent and there’s both finishing equity and grappling equity on the table.
Gurule is kind of just a “don’t kill me” type this week. I definitely cannot recommend being heavy on him, but fading him seems really sketchy as well. Coming in near the field is the easiest call but with a small portfolio, I wouldn’t label him a priority.
Aguilar at 7.5k is viable for upside in a win, but I hate his game.
The reality is if Aguilar wins, it’s probably going to come via knockout or much more likely, lots of ground success.
Aguilar isn’t a good wrestler but he’s hard to put away, and can scramble well. In wins, he’s scored 126, 60 (should have lost) and 92. He’s +350 to win ITD.
I would not blame you for targeting Aguilar as a low-end secondary target due to his upside, but ultimately it’s always going to be tough for me to back him. Gurule on paper is a better boxer and wrestler and that should be enough.
This fight kind of terrifies me on both sides and I probably won’t end up with too much exposure. I think Gurule should get the nod. Both sides do have paths to big scores though and so mixing them in near the field percentage is at least one safe way to play the matchup with a larger portfolio.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Gurule by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Zach Reese vs. Sedriques Dumas
Fight Odds: Reese -239, Dumas +200
Odds to end ITD: -550
DraftKings Salaries: Reese 8.9k, Dumas 7.3k
Weight Class: 185
Two mediocre middleweights will step into the Octagon as Zachary Reese looks to take out Sedriques Dumas.
Dumas isn’t a great prospect, and he’s gone 3-3 in the UFC after earning his contract on DWCS in 2022.
Dumas comes from a street fighting background which isn’t super ideal. He’s also not the brightest guy outside of the cage and was arrested on battery charges among other things since he’s entered the promotion.
In the UFC, his results have been mediocre. He lost easily to Josh Fremd in his UFC debut, where Fremd took him down a couple of times and choked him out. Fremd isn’t very good so that’s a pretty concerning loss.
Then Dumas beat Cody Brundage by laying on top of him for 11 minutes. Dumas didn’t even attempt any takedowns in that fight, but Brundage did and was able to get him down. Dumas reversed position and Brundage didn’t have the energy or care to work back to his feet.
Dumas then squeaked out a decision against Abu Azaitar in Abu Dhabi, in another matchup that was pretty ugly and competitive. More recently, he was poked in the eye by Nursulton Ruziboev and then dropped immediately after while he was complaining to the referee.
Then he won a close decision over Denis Tiuliulin where the two landed three takedowns a piece. And in April, he was knocked out in the first round by Michal Oleksiejczuk in a result that we were pretty happy with.
I certainly don’t feel great about where Dumas stands at the moment.
I think he’s technically fine as a striker. He can work the head, body and legs and he’s pretty composed. He has some finishing ability in the right matchup.
He’s been pretty low-volume though, only landing 2.10 sig. strikes per minute. There needs to be context noted as his fights have rarely played out at distance. Still, he’s only landing 3.5 distance strikes per minute which is super low and there’s no reason for me to believe he’ll suddenly try to push a pace moving forward.
Defensively, Dumas is OK, absorbing only 2.50 sig. strikes per minute but he’s been hurt a few times. The KO against Ruziboev was weird in that Dumas kinda just quit, which I don’t fully blame him for as he was distracted with his eye. However, I don’t necessarily believe he’s a guy who will fight hard through adversity. Watching him fold easily against Oleksiejczuk wasn’t a surprise either.
As a grappler, Dumas is a purple belt which is good on paper, but I don’t consider him a major threat. He’s a capable wrestler from the body lock but he’s averaging 1.25 takedowns per 15 minutes.
In that fight against Azaitar, Dumas landed a takedown early in round one and dominated the round with control. Then he decided to ignore the wrestling for the other two rounds and nearly lost the fight. So Fight IQ is a concern.
He’s also been taken down easily with a defensive rate at 40%, and getting subbed by Fremd was a bad look. I don’t think he’s a great defensive grappler and that concerns me in relation to relying on his offensive abilities as well.
Overall, I don’t think too highly of Dumas. He has some skills and can compete both on the feet and on the mat, but only against a low caliber of competition.
Zachary Reese has been a mixed bag since he entered the UFC, and has picked up a 3-2 record, most recently defeating Dusko Todorovic by decision.
Prior to joining the UFC, Reese had never seen a round two, and although I guessed he would be able to fight for more extended periods, it was nice to see him actually be forced to go past the first five minutes against Todorovic and Medina, though Medina didn’t test him much and mostly took a beating.
Todorovic definitely tested him, and arguably won. The two took each other down often and scrambled for a large majority of the fight in what was a pretty exhausting pace. Reese showed some firepower at distance but didn’t do enough to hurt Todorovic.
Todorovic also landed four takedowns and held Reese down at points, which wasn’t a great look. We also saw that on DWCS where Reese sorta got taken down early in round one and then locked up an armbar from guard against an opponent who clearly didn’t know what he was doing.
Then in his UFC debut, Reese only lasted one minute and 49 seconds against Cody Brundage, which isn’t a great sign. To be fair, he was slam KOd from the full guard which is probably not the most repeatable result, but it didn’t necessarily ease the concerns I had about Reese entering the promotion.
Reese is pretty long for the division, and fights in an upright stance. He’s very aggressive, and I actually like his kicking game which is one of his most dangerous weapons. He was slamming kicks into the body of Medina for three rounds and it’s fair to say that many fighters on the roster would not have been able to take the damage that Medina took.
Similarly, his grappling looks fine at times. He’s stronger than he looks based on his skinny frame, and I’ve seen him fair well in the clinch game. I’ve seen him use some Judo trips and some takedowns, and his submission grappling seems fine. He landed five takedowns against Medina and two against Todorovic.
Defensively, I still have concerns. Brundage took him down pretty early, which isn’t a major red flag, but then Reese just held full guard and attacked for submissions. That’s what worked for him at the regional level so it’s not really a surprise.
Except that time, he got slammed on his head and knocked out. It just makes me question the entire process of his game and whether he will just get stuck on his back moving forward.
Medina also took him down in the first round which isn’t the best sign. That’s now five of his past six opponents who have been able to get Reese down, and each takedown came in round one.
Furthermore, Reese was also brutally knocked out by Azamat Bekoev in January with ground strikes. So in his two losses, he’s essentially been RIPd and it’s really hard for me to trust in his durability moving forward.
While I liked to see Reese go the full distance, I still think the majority of his success is going to come with damage. He’s very aggressive, and throws powerful strikes, largely hunting for the finish.
Against weaker competition, Reese will be able to extend his game and continue to win rounds, but I don’t see him consistently outpointing guys, and my expectation is that he will have defensive wrestling issues.
In terms of the matchup, I do favor Reese but there are fragile parts of his game which make me nervous.
I think Reese is the more dangerous striker. I wouldn’t expect either fighter to throw in massive volume but I think Reese has a bit of an edge there, as Dumas has just been unwilling to push any striking pace whatsoever.
Dumas doesn’t get flatlined like Reese, but he’s been knocked out multiple times now and I do think an early Reese KO is in play. On the other side, Reese can be flatlined so it’s possible Dumas hurts him as well.
Reese is probably the better grappler, but I’m not sure it’s by a massive margin. Dumas is only defending takedowns at 40 percent so Reese can probably get him down on occasion, though I’m not sure it would result in clear success from there.
Conversely, nearly every opponent has taken Reese down and he’s sometimes willing to play from his back, so I think Dumas can pick up a couple takedowns as well. It’s possible we just see a lot of scrambles here again and another competitive fight that goes the distance.
I do think Reese is a little bit better though. He’s a more dangerous striker and probably a more dangerous grappler as well. I think he has a bit more finishing upside and I’d also pick him to win a decision should it go 15 minutes. But Reese can be defensively vulnerable which at least gives Dumas hope in all areas.
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On DraftKings, we’re looking for a Reese finish at 8.9k and I’m open to the idea that he gets it.
The majority of his success has come early in fights, and he also has a 20-second KO win in the UFC over Julian Marquez. I think it’s very possible that Reese will show some aggression early, and Dumas has folded multiple times.
So although Reese falls into a boom or bust bucket, I do think he has early finishing upside and I am willing to play him. He’s actually -190 to win ITD which is a really strong number, and will put him firmly in play.
If the fight goes the distance, Reese can still score some points, but his decisions have resulted in 67 and 106, so he’s simply not a guarantee. I wouldn’t bet on 100+ in this matchup.
Ultimately, there are a lot of risks with Reese and you probably do need the early finish for him to reach the optimal. He is going to rate out pretty well and at least on paper carries some solid finishing equity. A solid tournament option for the price.
Dumas at 7.3k doesn’t really interest me though he shouldn’t be ignored.
Primarily, I’m going to note again that Reese has been brutally knocked out in both of his UFC losses. I don’t think Dumas beats him that way, but if Reese loses, that may be how it looks.
That, or Dumas is able to land 3+ takedowns and outscramble Reese over the duration for a close decision. Either method could score well.
Dumas is only +285 to win ITD but that’s not a bad line for the price tag, and I don’t think the public will be on him.
I wouldn’t want to be aggressive here with Dumas, but he’s a viable target and potentially a sneaky one given his finishing metrics. It makes sense to mix him in but I’d only label him a low-end secondary option in total.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Reese by TKO, RD 1 (Confidence=Medium)
Alessandro Costa vs. Alden Coria
Fight Odds: Costa -401, Coria +320
Odds to end ITD: -150
DraftKings Salaries: Costa 9.5k, Coria 6.7k
Weight Class: 125
The UFC will welcome newcomer Alden Coria who will take on Alessandro Costa for his promotional debut.
Coria is 10-3 professionally and the former Fury FC flyweight champion, holding four wins by knockout and four wins by submission.
He’s picked up a few finishes in a row, but prior to that stretch, Coria had lost three of five, and didn’t rate out as a particularly promising prospect.
I would consider him best as a striker, someone capable of fighting on the back foot where he’s somewhat agile. But he’s not a super powerful fighter or real knockout threat in my opinion.
I do think he’s a pretty quality, technical kickboxer though. I don’t want to underrate him by saying he has no tools. He can box and he can kick. But I view it as more of a point fighting style.
He also does have occasional explosive bursts, and for example, he picked up a knockout on the regionals with a flying knee. But I don’t see him easily winning striking exchanges at the UFC levels and a lot of his rounds have been competitive because he isn’t always landing with damage, or outpacing opponents.
Coria has also had struggles on the mat, where he was taken down a bunch of times in his losses. He can work up well at times, but he’s also been submitted and I don’t love his first-level takedown defense.
He also has an offensive grappling win in his recent stretch, where he took his opponent down multiple times, took the back and finished with an arm-triangle choke. In theory he’s improving.
I would be pretty surprised if Coria had real wrestling success at the UFC level though, and he’s likely to be vulnerable defensively. That’s just not a great base to start with.
Even on the feet, I only really see Coria winning some competitive striking rounds, or landing the occasional damaging blow. He is quick, but he’s not very high-volume and doesn’t have insane power. I’m just not sure where he stands out in the UFC and therefore it seems likely that he’ll fall behind a lot of flyweights.
Coria will take on Alessandro Costa who is coming off an impressive TKO victory over Kevin Borjas in May of 2024.
Costa is pretty well-rounded but he’s not the most consistent fighter in any area.
He’s only landing 4.14 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 3.50 and defending at 57 percent. He really chopped the legs of Borjas last time out which was a major key to his victory.
Otherwise, he tends to fight in bursts where he can be effective and carries power, but he’s simply inconsistent in terms of volume. While Costa can also dish out damage, he can be hurt in return as well, and we saw him dropped twice and TKOd by Amir Albazi in his UFC debut.
In his lone fight that’s gone the distance in the UFC, Costa was outlanded 74 to 54 by Steve Erceg, which is obviously a quality opponent, but still doesn’t show the kind of offensive production I like.
Costa is also a BJJ black belt who trains with Diego Lopes, and he’s a quality submission grappler.
Unfortunately, he’s not the most active wrestler and only lands 0.27 takedowns per 15 minutes which is a major red flag.
Costa has only taken down one of his last five opponents and therefore is not really trustworthy to shoot on a consistent basis. He is defending takedowns at 90 percent, but he’s still been taken down by a couple of opponents and controlled for stretches on his back.
Overall, Costa isn’t the most consistent or trustworthy fighter in my eyes. He can be an effective striker and an effective grappler, but he’s not a proven minute winner and likely will continue to struggle in that area.
I guess I’m a bit surprised to see Costa as the heaviest favorite on the board this week, though I do agree his skills are better than Coria’s.
In theory, Costa might just be better everywhere. I’d say he’s surely the better submission grappler, but without an offensive wrestling threat, that might not matter a ton.
And on the feet, I don’t think Costa is going to throw a lot more volume than Coria. I would expect Costa to be the more effective striker, with more power and more ability to land general damage, including leg kicks.
So I do think this is a fight Costa should win, and he could win ITD. He could hurt Coria, and it’s possible he chooses to wrestle here and has some threat on the mat.
Coria will likely just want to point fight though, and he won’t put himself in overt danger. He’ll dance around the outside and play a technical kickboxing game, and if he gets that fight, he could stay competitive with Costa.
I do at least think Coira is live to win some competitive striking rounds, and there’s some possibility he could hurt Costa. I will take Costa to win while being the more effective fighter.
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On DraftKings, I’m really not dying to pay up for Costa at 9.5k.
That’s an expensive price tag, and he surely needs an early finish. Without any real wrestling projection, Costa will be difficult to trust.
Plus, both of Costa’s TKOs in the UFC have come in round two, where he scored 102 and 108. I suppose that could be enough, but it’s still walking a thin line.
It is possible Coria just gets overwhelmed by Costa here, which leads to an early stoppage. Or maybe if Costa pushes a wrestling pace for once, he can have ground success.
I am just worried the fight extends a little bit based on Coria’s style, and the fight as a whole is projected to last about 12 minutes. In an extended fight, I’d be nervous to have a lot of exposure to Costa.
Still, Costa himself is +120 to win ITD which shows some finishing equity. He’s not an awful target. I just don’t view him a priority at this price tag and I’d be fine paying down further to start my lineups.
Coria at 6.7k doesn’t interest me a whole lot.
His style doesn’t seem super fantasy friendly unless he gets a knockout, and he’s also the biggest dog on the slate.
Coria is +375 to win ITD which actually isn’t awful, but it’s really tough to bet on a knockout for him. If you want to use him as a dart throw, that’s perfectly fine in large field tournaments.
However, he has a very limited wrestling base and isn’t a high-volume striker, so even a competitive decision isn’t likely to reach a ceiling. I will probably just pursue other dogs with more win equity on paper.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Costa by Decision (Confidence=Medium)
Alice Pereira vs. Montse Rendon
Fight Odds: Pereira -147, Rendon +125
Odds to end ITD: +180
DraftKings Salaries: Pereira 8.6k, Rendon 7.6k
Weight Class: 135
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Alice Pereira was recently signed, bypassing the Contender Series and will be making UFC history as she’ll be the youngest female to ever compete in the promotion at 19 years old – she’s 5-0 as a pro. Montse Rendon got a later start to her MMA career and is now at the age of 36. She edged out a close decision in her debut and is coming off her first pro loss in her sophomore UFC outing. She’ll also be coming off a pretty lengthy layoff of roughly a year and a half – she’s 6-1 as a pro.
The striking component:
I’m unsure of Pereira’s official background but she’s more of a striker and a big 135er standing 5’10”.
Before getting further into her breakdown, it needs to be noted right off the top that she’s fought a terrible level of competition – I mean REALLY bad. So much so that she has multiple fights on her record flagged by Tapology for issues of “legitimacy” – aka, she’s beating a bunch of soccer moms who really have no business being in a cage. Even one of the fights on her record that’s not officially “flagged”, was in a Brazilian promotion called Demo Fight who are notorious for setting up squash matches and intentionally padding fighter records.
I bring all that up as a disclaimer because assessing how good Pereira is at this point is difficult.
But as noted, she’s a long girl that will move a decent amount and operates as more of a blitz striker.
She’s somewhat predictable though as she’ll often spam the same types of combinations of a leaping lead hook followed by a right – then she’s just firing a bunch of hooks or coming in with flying knees.
But she does seem like an athletic girl with good hand speed and has some pop in her shots.
Defensively, she’s got decent lateral movement but her head doesn’t move much off the center line where she can eat linear shots or when girls return in the pocket. But she hasn’t faced much volume back her way or a ton of resistance in general given her strength of schedule.
Overall, with what we have to go on, I think Pereira can outstrike lower tier girls at the UFC level but I can’t make any definitive claims with her until she faces a more capable striker.
Rendon’s a pretty big/dense girl at the weight class standing 5’8” with a 68” reach.
She keeps a decent work rate and throws straight punches which I like but she’s also very wooden, stiff, relatively slow and doesn’t always move her head off the center line.
As a result, the striking in her fights has by and large been competitive in “take a shot to give a shot” type of scenarios – credence as to why she’s been to three split decisions.
I personally thought she lost her last regional fight to Cloudy who was the most competent fighter she’d fought at that time– contextually, Cloudy is a mid-tier regional girl who I felt was the more effective boxer.
I also thought her fight with Zamora prior wasn’t encouraging as that was a really small girl that’s genuinely a bad fighter who was still landing very clean on her throughout the fight.
In her debut, she had a slower start against Vidal and got chewed with kicks throughout the fight. But her boxing came on a bit more as the fight progressed to where she outlanded Vidal to the head 45 to 17.
However, she’s coming off getting outstruck by Zhelezniakova 51-25 at distance and only landed at a 17% clip – despite referencing that she’ll throw, it’s not the first fight where she’s just swinging at air.
Overall, Rendon’s a low tier rock em sock em girl on the feet that hasn’t displayed much power so her striking ceiling at the UFC level is probably close decisions.
How it plays out: Despite me not thinking much of Rendon’s stand up in a macro sense, she will be the most capable striker Pereira has fought who also appears relatively tough and perceivably won’t just keel over like some of Pereira’s past opponents. That said, faster girls who also move laterally have ultimately given Rendon problems in the past so I kind of see that being the case again here – still not a “bullish” take though given sampling issues.
The wrestling/grappling component:
There’s not a ton to say here with Pereira.
She’s a 4-stripe white belt as of late 2023 so she may have gotten her blue belt in the last few years but I couldn’t confirm that.
As noted, she prefers to stand and strike but has mixed TDs into a handful of fights, usually coming from body locks against the fence or caught kicks.
I don’t think her wrestling is very good mechanically though and her success is more a product of the girls she’s fighting – she’s also just let girls up at points.
Defensively, she’s essentially a question mark as I’ve only seen her shot on once which was a half hearted attempt from far out that she stuffed – there’s no footage of her on the bottom.
Overall, similar to the striking, she’s capable of getting on top of incompetent opponents but I’m not really sure how that’s going to translate in the UFC – my assumption is that she won’t look great if put on her back.
We haven’t seen a ton of Rendon on the ground, but she’s gone to cage push here and there but wasn’t a particularly proactive wrestler on the regional scene.
She did land a late TD against Cloudy which edged her the fight in the eyes of the judges but nearly got reversed off the initial entry.
However, she went 3/5 on Vidal and was able to secure takedowns off caught kicks in the latter rounds which is ultimately what won her that fight.
She also landed three TDs against Zhelezniakova last time out – early TDs won her the first round but she struggled securing in the back half.
Apparently, she’s a jiu-jitsu girl by base repping a BJJ brown belt but I haven’t seen much in her to suggest any real danger factor on the floor – no pro wins via submission and has never passed guard.
Defensively, the more alarming ground spot was her getting mounted by Zamora in the 3rd round. She worked out of the position but still not a good look nonetheless and the TD didn’t come too difficult.
Rendon did stuff all three of Vidal’s TDAs early though and defended an early leg entanglement.
She just hasn’t been shot on much overall so it’s still hard to make out her defensive capabilities.
Overall, despite Rendon’s grappling status, she’s still kind of a question mark in the realm but she is capable of taking down lesser TD defenders.
How it plays out: This is where I see more potential upside to Rendon considering she’s largely been able to stay upright herself and has secured three TDs in both of her UFC fights. Rendon will probably have some difficulty tracking Pereira but it’s when Pereira comes into the pocket with those blitzes where I can see Rendon looking to tie up to then initiate wrestling sequences. Once again, given the lack of sample, it’s hard to say anything definitively. In theory, Rendon could have a healthy amount of success or none. Maybe Pereira could take her down as well?
Garbage fight. Rendon’s borderline UFC level at best and she’s not a young or particularly experienced girl either with only seven pro fights. On the flip side, I’m not sure why the UFC brought Pereira in right away and didn’t make her go through the Contender Series outside of the “cool youngest fighter” thing. Given everything written above, I don’t have a strong opinion here where not a ton would shock me. I can realistically see Pereira just outmaneuvering Rendon over 15 minutes and being the more effective striker but I also wouldn’t be surprised if Rendon is able to land a handful of TDs, close up the margins and even win. I’m leaning towards Pereira but it’s a pretty low confidence pick.
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On DraftKings, I do think there’s some potential for upside here just given the lack of data and likely low-level nature of the matchup.
Pereira is priced at 8.6k and my guess is she needs a knockout. It’s also possible she could land takedowns but I’d be surprised if she could dominate from top position.
Pereira is only +275 to win ITD though which isn’t particularly strong. She is a big girl though and Rendon is so slow. Perhaps Pereira could hurt her while being the more effective striker.
It feels like an impossible spot to prioritize here, and therefore, I just consider Pereira a viable secondary target. You’re betting on complete unknowns to a degree, and hoping that could materialize to a finish.
I doubt I’ll end up with much Pereira but like Luke outlined, not a ton would surprise me.
Rendon is priced down to 7.6k and might have a grappling path to victory.
The fact that she’s attempted 5 and 6 takedowns in her first two fights definitely gives me some hope, especially as we have zero data on Pereira. It can’t be understated how little we truly know – every single fight I watched from her was on a shitty cell phone camera.
I also saw she was sporting a white belt in some photos and like… while belts are awful. It is possible she is a complete zero from her back.
I think mixing in Rendon is actually smart here. I’m not picking her to win, but she already scored 90 points in her UFC debut with three takedowns and it’s possible she has a real advantage from top position. Pereira just might not be ready.
I’m not picking Rendon to win, as I don’t really think she’s good, but at 7.6k, I consider her a viable secondary target, given the grappling upside and general variance within the matchup.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Pereira by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Rodrigo Senzinando vs. Daniil Donchenko
Fight Odds: Donchenko -208, Senzinando +175
Odds to end ITD: -220
DraftKings Salaries: Donchenko 8.8k, Senzinando 7.4k
Weight Class: 170
This should be a fun one as Daniil Donchenko takes on Rodrigo Senzinado for the TUF welterweight finale.
Donchenko is 11-2 professionally at age 24, fighting out of Tiger Muay Thai and repping Ukraine. He’s earned seven wins by knockout, two by submission and he was the champion in Naiza.
Honestly, I didn’t think Donchenko looked that fantastic on the regional scene, but he absolutely ran through his TUF competition, and his most recent win was the most impressive win of his career, I thought.
It’s not to say he looked poor on the regionals. But I thought he was falling behind in a lot of distance exchanges. He throws some heavy shots but he’s not the most active striker in the world, and he could get backed up pretty easily and semi-hurt.
His wrestling seemed to be a strong suit, but more in the physical sense where he was able to ground some guys and pound on them. He’s clearly a powerful fighter and that’s probably his best attribute.
I wouldn’t say he rates out as some elite volume distance striker, nor elite submission grappler. I think his defense is alright. His level of competition has been solid, and he’s fought five rounds before, though he’s lost a couple of decisions.
But in his first TUF matchup, Donchenko came out super hot and was unloading punches on his opponent on the inside, where he had him backed up against the cage. It very easily could have led to a stoppage, but Martins survived. That happened in the first minute, and the rest of the round was relatively slow paced.
In the second round, Donchecko was mostly pot shotting, landing hard single shots, and Martins couldn’t really get his respect. He did eat a few shots, but Donchenko mostly led the round and won the round, purely with kickboxing.
In his semifinal fight, Donchenko won by first round knockout in what was honestly a really great performance. He and Dixon basically went to war, and Donchenko was the harder hitter and more physical fighter. Dixon did land some really clean shots and mildly hurt Donchenko, but Donchenko hit him more and even harder. Cut him open, later hurt him and semi-dropped him, and then followed up with GnP for the finish.
There were some elements of brawling and questionable defense, and I’m not sure Donchenko always wins those kinds of fights. But he looked super dangerous and effective with his aggressive, power boxing, and that kind of style can absolutely lead to wins at the UFC level.
To me, Donchenko profiles as the type who will excel when he has physical advantages. Because he hits very hard, and is willing to be aggressive and brawl, less physical opponents may just not be able to stop him.
Those who can fight back could potentially hurt him, and I’m pretty confident he will be knocked out at some point.
I’m not sold on his wrestling to be honest. I just want to see it tested more. I don’t think he’s an elite offensive wrestler but he will have some equity there against weaker opponents. Good wrestlers can probably get him down though.
I’d like to see more but Donchenko has the makings of a pretty dangerous action fighter.
Senzinando is 8-1 professionally with four wins by knockout and three by submission.
Like Donchenko, I thought Senzinando’s best career performances were on TUF.
On the regionals, he essentially looked like a grappler. He would come out aggressively and look for takedowns. He often got them, and then he would transition to a dominant position and get a finish.
On the feet, Senzinando didn’t show much. He could kick a little bit, and he had some power, but he was mostly striking on the regionals as a means to get inside. I thought he looked pretty vulnerable in some exchanges, where if he was forced to trade for longer periods, he might have gotten knocked out.
On the regional scene he also lost to another grappler in 2022. The opponent just out clinched him, took him down and won the scrambles. And basically laid on top of Senzinando to win a decision. It wasn’t the best look.
In his first TUF matchup, Senzinando struck for more minutes than I’d seen of the rest of his career combined, and his muay thai looked pretty solid. I don’t think he was fighting a beast striker on the other side in Bianchini, but Senzinando was playing the role of the aggressor, attacking well and he looked semi-capable.
He also still got on top of Bianchini but in the first round, he literally let him back to his feet twice. That’s a major red flag for me because it shows a lack of control upside for Senzinando on the mat. I want him to beast his opponents there but letting them up shows a very poor process.
In the second round, Bianchini basically fell over and Senzinando got on top of him for the whole round. It was dominant but nothing special.
In his semifinal fight, Senzinando fought a hard three rounds, and won a decision. He didn’t look super special, but there were solid striking and wrestling elements. He did land a couple of early takedowns but didn’t have massive success once the fight hit the ground. He was also taken down himself, though he reversed position.
In the third round, Senzinando was able to get a takedown and ride out most of the round to seal the fight, though he arguably won the first two rounds anyway. It’s a good sign that he can fight with his style late into fights.
I also just don’t think either opponent he faced was particularly good, and I’m still a bit skeptical of Senzinando.
On the surface, he’s a solid wrestler/grappler with a real path to winning via takedowns and top control. He should be able to dominate the bottom of the division. Even on the feet, his muay thai is solid and he can keep himself alive at the very least.
My gut says that he won’t have as much success wrestling at the UFC level, and because he’s not the most crafty submission grappler, I think he’ll be forced into more stand-up fights.
And I just don’t love his stand-up, or at least don’t see a real ceiling for it. He’s a little bit slow, and I think he needs to be in control to have success.
Who the hell knows what’s going to happen, but I think this could be a banger.
Senzinando should try to wrestle because when he’s on top, he’s not going to get hit in the face. If he’s forced to trade, Donchenko probably will hit him a lot and that seems like a bad thing.
If I had to pick one outcome, it would be that Donchenko knocks him out. He’s so damn powerful that I just see him hurting Senzinando. That’s under the assumption they’re willing to push a pace, like we saw on TUF, but sometimes under the bright lights they slow down.
I suppose I can also see Senzinando being able to land takedowns. If that’s the case, he probably just wins via top control. I also think Donchenko can take Senzinando down though, so that dynamic is interesting. We could very well see both guys on top.
However, if Senzinando is able to land takedowns, and I’d project him for 1-2, he can win a round or two and win the fight. Or maybe finish if Donchenko is that bad on his back, which I am not expecting.
If Donchenko gets on top, he might be able to win a round or stop the fight too. Senzinando isn’t a great defensive wrestler and he is willing to play from his back. Both guys have also shown the ability to fight for three rounds.
On the feet, I just think Donchenko hits way harder and will be more effective. He can get hurt himself so that still keeps Senzinando live, but I think Senzinando will want to kick at distance, and on the inside, Donchenko probably beats him up. So ultimately, I think Donchenko wins unless he gets controlled on his back, which is still one possible outcome.
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On DraftKings, this is a fight I’m willing to target and I’m hopeful we’ll see these two push a pace.
If that happens, I do think it’s likely a finish materializes. We aren’t guaranteed a finish and the ITD line is only sitting at -220, but Donchenko is super powerful and there are binary elements here.
Donchenko would be my preferred target at 8.8k, though it’s a little more expensive than I’d like to pay. He probably falls into a boom or bust category because of it, and I expect he will need that knockout to exceed value at this price tag.
Striking exchanges are so high-variance, and these guys are making their UFC debuts, in a tournament finale, so it’s really tough to feel confident. I do think Donchenko has knockout equity though, and I consider him a solid upside play.
Donchenko is only -130 to win ITD and doesn’t need to be outright prioritized, but I think he has a decent shot to get a finish and I don’t mind being in on him to a degree.
Senzinando probably needs a finish or lots of grappling success to get his hand raised, which means in a win, he likely scores well on DraftKings.
At 7.4k, I at least like Senzinando’s chances of exceeding value. Again, given the variance at play, I don’t feel exceptionally confident here and I think Senzinando will rate out as a fine secondary target because of it.
I won’t prioritize Senzinando either, and I’m not picking him to win. There are other underdogs I would rather choose ahead of him. But he has a grappling path and some finishing equity at +400 ITD, and I wouldn’t expect him to be too popular. Coming in near the field given the upside in a win seems like a reasonable play.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Donchenko by TKO, RD 1 (Confidence=Medium-Low)