UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho (9/6/25)
Note: Please read the full analysis, that is much more important than who I pick to win. The confidence relates to my pick to win, not the path to victory. Picks are NOT bets. Matchup breakdowns are written by Brett unless otherwise noted, and all DraftKings analysis is written by Brett. Both Technical Tim and Luke Lampe will also contribute to matchup breakdowns.
MAIN CARD
Nassourdine Imavov vs. Caio Borralho
Fight Odds: Borralho -132, Imavov +113
Odds to end ITD: +115
DraftKings Salaries: Borralho 8.4k, Imavov 7.8k
Weight Class: 185
We have a top contender matchup here in the middleweight division as home crowd favorite Nassourdine Imavov challenges Caio Borralho.
Imavov has picked up four consecutive wins and is coming off his most impressive victory in a second round TKO over Israel Adesanya in February. He’s also won eight of his last nine matchups if you include the NC against Chris Curtis, with his only loss coming to former champion Sean Strickland in a main event in 2023.
Imavov is largely a striker, and a pretty technical one at that. He’s a sniper at distance and likes to fight with composure, excelling at outpointing his opponents over the duration rather than putting them unconscious.
It has worked for the most part. Imavov lands 4.45 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 3.26 per minute with a 58% defensive rate. He’s also scored knockouts over Adesanya and Cannonier in recent fights, so it’s not as if he’s incapable of putting opponents away.
These numbers are honestly skewed against him to a degree as well, as Imavov absorbed 182 sig. strikes against Strickland in his most recent loss. No other fighter has eclipsed 64, and that includes multiple fights that have extended into round four.
Strickland, as we know, excels in volume and pressure himself and that’s one of his best attributes. He was able to bring a kind of pace and pressure that Imavov could not quite keep up with.
Imavov’s next opponent Caio Borralho is not a high-paced fighter, and honestly, this projects as one of the better mirror matches in the division.
Borralho is a fairly unique fighter, and I haven’t been the most comfortable with his style in the past, mostly because he will do his best to severely limit striking exchanges.
He fights out of a sideways stance and plays at range very well. He does not get hit often at all, and has only absorbed 2.34 sig. strikes per minute thus far which is very strong.
And prior to his last matchup, he was only landing 2.91 sig. strikes per minute, which was part of my concern. He is usually in control but typically wants to snipe, which is a fine strategy dependent on the opponent, though it can become a liability against a fighter who can close distance effectively.
Most recently though, Borralho largely picked Cannonier apart for the majority of five rounds, and outlanded him 153 to 83, improving that per minute strike total to 3.61 per minute. Despite not being the highest on Cannonier, I like to see that kind of volume and pacing, and it gives me more confidence that Borralho can pick up his game when needed.
While I mostly consider Borralho a technical striker and not a knockout artist, he does have some knockout equity too. He’s now knocked down three consecutive opponents and most recently put Paul Craig down in the second round.
I think Borralho rates out very well in matchups when he can easily play at range, in slower paced exchanges. We have not seen him face much adversity, and I think there’s legitimate reason to question whether he could withstand punishment, but given his ability to limit exchanges, there are likely few in the division who can truly test him.
Borralho has more tools than just his range striking though. He is also a BJJ black belt and a Judo black belt, which rounds out his game nicely, and it’s been a key to his success in early UFC fights.
Thus far he’s landing 1.56 takedowns per 15 minutes, and seems to be a quality wrestler. He’s also pretty strong at taking the back, and should have some control and submission upside because of it.
He got taken down twice by Muradov in 2022 and tried to jump guillotines, which was weird and is still a minor concern of mine. It wasn’t the best look and he was controlled for a little while. He still reversed position and ended up winning the fight, but it plays a little bit into my concerns about fighting an opponent who can pressure and produce offense at a high rate.
Otherwise, he’s mostly outclassed guys, and has gone to wrestling, control and back takes when necessary. In total, Borralho looks very good, with multiple paths to victory.
This should be a super fun matchup if you like technical, slow paced striking. I wouldn’t expect either man to force exchanges, and there’s a really strong chance we could see these two pick at each other from distance for a full 25 minutes.
In that kind of matchup, either man can win. I honestly give a slight edge to Borralho though, because he’s simply harder to hit. He’s absorbing 2.34 sig. strikes per minute versus the 3.26 per minute of Imavov, and he’s also defending at 62 percent versus the 58 percent from Imavov.
To be fair, the difference is marginal. There’s a really strong chance we get 23-20 type striking rounds of which it will be difficult to figure out who is ahead. And in Paris, with the crowd behind him, Imavov could get the nod.
I’ve heard many favor Imavov on the feet this week as the more effective striker outright, which is fair and I wouldn’t be shocked if he threw a bit more. But I just find it difficult to confidently favor Imavov here on the feet as he’s had much more difficulty cleanly outpacing opponents, and Borralho is among the hardest to hit in the division. So at best, he’s probably winning some ultra-close rounds. It’s possible that’s also Borralho’s path though too.
I do also lean toward Borralho as having more grappling upside as well. Imavov has been taken down by five of his 11 opponents, and recently against Brendan Allen, he was taken down immediately in round one and laid on his back for the whole round.
He’s still defending takedowns at 78 percent which is strong, and Borralho may not even try to wrestle. But I think Borralho has 1-3 takedown upside of which he could win 1-2 rounds, and potentially take the back and threaten for a choke at times.
Imavov lands 0.85 takedowns per 15 minutes and Borralho hasn’t looked super strong from his back. That matchup against Muradov is still concerning.
I don’t think Imavov will have an easy time getting him down though and he probably won’t be attempting many takedowns in total. I just want to note that if he did wrestle, and ended up in top position, that would be a good thing for Imavov and potentially a path to victory as well. It’s just hard to rely on or project.
Overall, a competitive betting line makes a lot of sense here, as the most likely outcome is a slower paced, super competitive striking affair, and one that probably goes the distance. I do give Borralho slight edges both on the feet and on the mat though, and so ultimately, he will be my pick to get his hand raised.
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On DraftKings…. we could be set up for a generational fade here…
That’s not the recommendation I’m going to give, but let’s talk it out.
Borralho is priced at 8.4k, and although he’s coming off a 105 point decision, I am highly worried he busts in a win.
Yes, Borralho could land a knockdown and win by knockout, but I don’t think that’s an exceptionally likely outcome. I am expecting this fight to extend.
If it extends, I don’t know that we’re going to see tons of striking exchanges. Imavov is only absorbing 3.26 sig. strikes per minute and he’s defending at 58 percent. Borralho is also landing strikes at 3.61 per minute.
Borralho is coming off landing 153 sig. strikes, but that’s against a much more hittable opponent. Even if you project Borralho to land at his historic rate of 3.61, that’s only about 90 sig. strikes in 25 minutes, which honestly seems reasonable to me. And that would score 66 DK points.
Even if he lands 120 sig. strikes, if it’s a decision, he’s scoring less than 80 DK points.
If Borralho can win by early knockout, then yes, he’ll score very well. He’s only +325 to win ITD.
The other aspect is wrestling. Borralho can also get there with wrestling and I’d say that’s my bigger concern as to fading him.
If Borralho wrestles with some urgency and can land 2-3 takedowns, he can earn control and that may push him into the high 90s or low 100s. He only averages 1.5 takedowns per 15 minutes though and he hasn’t landed a takedown in any of his past three fights.
Ultimately, I do like playing some Borralho because he’s priced at 8.4k, so we have outs in terms of not needing a pure smash to be optimal. Especially on the wrestling front, I wouldn’t be shocked if that was the separator here and what helped him exceed value.
But at a base level, I think Borralho is likely to win an extended, slow paced fight, in which case, he very well may not reach 10x. In a strong mid-range slate with other fights projected to score well, I don’t think it’s the worst idea to pivot off Borralho and use him more as a secondary option than a primary one.
Imavov at 7.8k is arguably more risky than Borralho, despite the price.
Borralho is absorbing 2.34 sig. strikes per minute with a 62 percent defensive rate. Imavov has gone five rounds twice and only landed 112 and 123 sig. strikes, against MUCH more hittable opponents.
If Imavov goes five rounds here, I would not be surprised to see him fall in that 80-120 strike range, which is a mid 60s DK score on the low end and a high 70s score on the high end.
He’s actually +275 to win ITD which is way better than Borralho’s line, but I don’t completely understand that. I kind of think his ITD odds should be worse than Borralho’s straight up. But yeah, if he wins by KO, he’ll probably be optimal.
Imavov doesn’t even land 1 takedown per 15 minutes either, and 0 takedowns landed would not be a surprise.
Again, it’s a low bar to clear at 7.8k in a win. And if he does win, we have to assume he’s producing some kind of offense. So using him as a secondary target makes sense.
However, I just don’t feel great about this matchup on either side from a fantasy standpoint and of the two, I prefer Borralho. This matchup just screams Imavov landing 20 or less strikes per round and it lasting for a while, and at that point, I’m not sure how involved I want to be.
While both sides are still decent secondary targets in the mid-range with five rounds to work, I don’t mind pivoting away from the main event more often than usual this week, and potentially to a moderate degree.
I’ll have more shares of Borralho personally but the fight is -145 to go five rounds and if that happens, there’s simply no guarantee of an optimal score.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Borralho by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Benoit Saint Denis vs. Mauricio Ruffy
Fight Odds: Ruffy -185, Saint Denis +157
Odds to end ITD: -325
DraftKings Salaries: Ruffy 8.8k, Saint Denis 7.4k
Weight Class: 155
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a gunfight here in the co-main event as Benoit Saint Denis will square off against Mauricio Ruffy,
I love the grappling pace and storm that Benoit Saint Denis brings. He goes after his opponents relentlessly and usually overwhelms them.
I expect grappling to continue to be the main path to victory for Saint Denis going forward. It is what he did well on the regionals too. He does a good job of landing doubles against the cage. He also has a decent passing game and is submission capable on the mat with his aggressive backtakes.
Look, I don’t think Saint Denis is the best grappler or anything. However, he is competent and tenacious. He is also a very tough guy who can push a pace. He just shoots so many takedowns and is always pressuring his opponents and breaks them. He will continue to wreck the majority of UFC fighters on the mat.
I just don’t trust Saint Denis defensively as a striker or as a grappler though. In his UFC debut, he took an all-time beating against Zaleski dos Santos in a fight that certainly should have been stopped. He stayed tough in that fight and wasn’t finished. He absorbed 149 significant strikes in that fight and only dished out 67 in return. I am just not comfortable in people who absorb that many strikes, and Saint Denis’ striking style is too brawling based for my liking. He then got knocked dead against Dustin Poirier. So he clearly has some defensive striking issues.
I do think Saint Denis has a good rear body kick out of the southpaw stance though. He is also aggressive and it really frustrates and bothers opponents. So I do think he is knockout capable. I also think he is capable of outworking fighters on the feet as well.
His defense REALLY scares me though, and he will certainly be knocked out again in the future. Even Thiago Moises landed some very big hooks at the end of round two in the pocket. Moises just didn’t have the power in his hands to totally make Saint Denis pay.
I also didn’t like the way Saint Denis was beat up on the mat vs Moicano. It was a bad look and good grapplers can probably expose his defensive grappling.
I think Saint-Denis will continue to win a lot of fights at this level with his grappling and pace, but I do think his lack of defense will cause him to lose fights.
Saint Denis will be taking on Mauricio Ruffy. Ruffy is 29 years old and 12-1 professionally. He booked his ticket to the UFC by beating a good Russian opponent on the Contender Series in October of 2023.
Ruffy has since fought three times in the UFC defeating Jamie Mullarkey, James Llontop, and Bobby Green and winning by knockout twice.
Ruffy is a striker. He has a Capoeira base that is flashy and is very much a sniper. He will use footwork and movement on the outside. He will land kicks and throw spinning strikes, but his bread and butter is his straight right hand. He has a ton of power and will continue to hurt and knockout opponents in the UFC.
Ruffy can be low volume at times though and his striking metrics aren’t great as he lands 4.54 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.59 in return. He can also slow down a little bit too. So he isn’t perfect on the feet. However, he generally doesn’t get hit clean and he lands so much harder than his opponents so he is a fighter that will likely continue to outperform his striking metrics.
Ruffy doesn’t grapple much offensively. Defensively, he hasn’t been tested a lot. I have seen him defend some takedowns against Manoel Sousa and on the Contender Series. His TDD actually looked competent. However, he did get stuck against the cage at times and I don’t think those guys tenaciously grapple like BSD.
That is why I am really struggling being confident in either guy here. If Ruffy can defend takedowns, he should win. BSD’s striking defense is terrible and Ruffy will likely knock BSD’s head off if he gets striking stretches. I also think the small amount of TDD I have seen of Ruffy makes me think that he can at least defend takedowns here and there and get his striking moments. So I totally understand why Ruffy is the favorite here and he is my pick in this matchup.
The issue is Ruffy has not dealt with a grappling storm like this. I don’t really know if Ruffy will stop this grappling attack or not. I feel blind.
I have also seen Ruffy visibly tire and get pushed vs the cage as well. I really wouldn’t be surprised if BSD just landed his takedowns and paced Ruffy and won this fight on the mat. It really wouldn’t surprise me at all so I consider BSD a live dog just because of the general unknowns of this matchup. This is a binary matchup and we don’t totally know how Ruffy stacks up. So this is a tough one.
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On DraftKings, this is surely among the very best fights to target on the entire slate.
I haven’t been a big fan of Ruffy up until this point, and I still have skepticism towards his game. I’m not sure if he will win on Saturday or not.
But in this kind of matchup, I expect him to win via brutal early knockout if he wins at all. It feels super binary to me, and given Saint Denis’ style, we’ll either see BSD grind on Ruffy and win, or get hurt in the process.
Ruffy is generally very boom or bust, which makes me nervous, but he’s scored well in each of his two knockout wins, putting up 102 and 110. His lone decision, which came with a knockdown, only scored 69 DK points.
There is some fear of the fight extending. If it does, Ruffy will bust. Targeting him at chalk at 8.8k isn’t a must.
However, he’s -140 to win ITD and I really feel like a win for Ruffy comes via RD 1 or RD 2 KO. And he should be forced into fighting at a high pace, meaning we’ll see a lot of early exchanges.
I’m not sold Ruffy wins this, but he’s a very strong tournament target in my mind with a very clear path to an early KO. I’d like moderate exposure to him personally.
Saint Denis rates out among the best underdogs this week at 7.4k.
Given his style, he’s likely to smash any time he wins. In his UFC wins, he’s put up 121, 109 ,149, 115, 136 and 105. He’s probably among the most likely fighters on the entire slate to be optimal in a win.
Granted, he’s not favored to win, and that alone should put some limitations on how much you roster him. He may very well get flatlined early.
But at 7.4k, man, he’s hard to pass up. There are other does to consider on this slate including the obvious one in Fernandes, so maybe BSD won’t end up as ultra chalk this week, but I still consider him among the very best dogs to target.
He’s only +285 to win ITD but has an absolute grinding style that can break any opponent, and I do think he has a real shot here against Ruffy. I consider Saint Denis a strong secondary target at worst at 7.4k, and he’s another target who I wouldn’t mind being overweight to the field on given his pure upside in any kind of victory.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Ruffy by TKO, RD 1 (Confidence=Low)
Modestas Bukauskas vs. Paul Craig
Fight Odds: Bukauskas -351, Craig +284
Odds to end ITD: -325
DraftKings Salaries: Bukauskas 9.3k, Craig 6.9k
Weight Class: 205
*Matchup written by Technical Tim
We have a weird fight here between two untrustworthy fighters as Paul Craig will take on Modestas Bukasukas.
Paul Craig is one of the great representations of never knowing what is going to happen in this sport. This guy literally lost 14:58 of a fight to Magomed Ankalev and then won the fight with a last second random triangle choke. No joke.
Craig is best as a submission grappler and has shown time and time again that he can get random guard submissions. It is still not a path to victory that I like to count on or bet on. However, it is definitely a path to victory that I respect for Craig. He has just shown that he can do it consistently and even against good competition.
The issue with Craig is that he is not the best minute winner. He is almost always losing fights up until he obtains his submission. So it is just easy to imagine him losing fights and it’s easy to pick against him in general.
As a striker, Craig only lands 2.54 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.00 in return. He defends strikes at 43 percent. I just don’t think he is very skilled as a striker and doesn’t possess a ton of power. He also has been knocked out five times in the UFC. I don’t think his chin is awful. However, it is still definitely a concern and I imagine he will be knocked out a few times before his career is over.
I do think Craig’s striking has improved a bit though compared to his early run in the UFC. He is willing to get a bit more aggressive and pressure or panic his opponents. I still don’t trust him to beat any skilled strikers on the feet though.
I actually do think Craig is an underrated wrestler offensively. He is known for getting submissions off his back and he is there often because he only defends takedowns at 35 percent. However, Craig actually lands 1.47 takedowns per 15 minutes and can surprise opponents with well timed takedowns. He actually took down Magomed Anklaev twice which goes to show that he is capable. Craig is capable of taking the back as well.
Craig will be taking on Modesta Bukauskas. Bukauskas is basically a low to medium volume tepid striker. I don’t think all that highly of him. He has only landed two takedowns in the UFC. He is a decent defensive wrestler though and defends takedowns at 77 percent.
Bukauskas lands 3.26 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.07 in return. Those aren’t good metrics and I basically just consider Bukauskas a mild talent on the feet. He does have a little power and I do think he is somewhat technical and precise at times. However, I just don’t like his volume.
In his four decisions in the UFC, he landed 58, 44, 56, and 44 significant strikes. That is just not trustworthy. He has also been knocked out three times in the UFC although mostly against dangerous guys. Still, his durability is a concern too.
I basically just expect Bukauskas to get outworked in most fights or win competitive decisions or by knockout. He is basically just a whatever fighter to me that exists in the cage and will never win clearly unless he is fighting someone awful or randomly obtains a knockout.
As far as this matchup goes, I don’t trust either guy. I understand why Bukauskas is favored as the usual win condition for Craig is submissions and grappling, and Bukauskas has only been submitted once in the UFC. Bukauskas also generally has good TDD so there is a solid chance Bukauskas can avoid the submissions and the ground game of Craig altogether.
I do think that Bukauskas will probably minimize the grappling of Craig. I respect Bukauskas’ takedown defense overall. I still don’t think Bukauskas has faced many dangerous submission grapplers though so I am not completely ruling out a Craig submission win, but I do think more often than not Bukauskas minimizes the grappling of Craig. It is also why I will pick Bukauskas to win this fight.
The issue is I don’t think Craig is submission or bust here. Bukauskas has won his last three striking based decisions against Tyson Pedro, Zac Pauga, and Ion Cutelaba. However, those guys aren’t even good strikers and all of those fights were VERY close, and the Cutelaba fight was a borderline robbery.
In fact, Bukauskas was outlanded in significant strikes in all three of those fights 45-44, 67-56, and 58-44 respectively. That is just a bad sign. I still do think Bukauskas will probably win the striking exchanges against Craig and is more likely to win by knockout or land damaging shots. However, Craig winning a round on the feet by just hanging around and Bukauskas not attempting enough strikes is fully on the table here. I do think Bukauskas could knock Craig out but I don’t think Bukauskas has crazy power or anything, and he has only won by knockout twice in the UFC vs awful competition. It could happen but it may not.
I still will pick Bukauskas here. He will probably defend the grappling of Craig and get a striking fight where he is better overall. However, Bukauskas never separates so don’t be surprised if this fight goes to decision and is closer than the line indicates.
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On DraftKings, Bukauskas is priced up to 9.3k and he will be ultra boom or bust.
It’s just difficult to click his name, given how low volume he can be. I do think a KO is on the table but in the times Bukauskas has won by RD 1 KO, he’s still only scored 106 and 96 points. Is that even enough at 9.3k on this slate? I’m not sure.
If the fight hits round two, Bukauskas is probably toast, and the fight is still -130 to go Over 1.5 rounds.
It’s a pretty simple point of analysis this week. If Bukauskas wins an extended fight, he very well might not even reach 60 DK points. If he wins by RD 1 KO, he’ll have a shot at the optimal, but it’s still not a guarantee.
The good news is that he’s -165 to win ITD but he’s simply hard to trust. Craig is bad but he’s only been knocked down twice in his last 17 fights, and that came against Johnny Walker and Caio Borralho.
If you have the salary to afford Bukauskas, he’s a viable secondary target, especially on a slate where the top range lacks true upside. But I wouldn’t want to take a heavy stance here and at best, I’d aim to come in near the field.
Craig is priced down to 6.9k and is viable as a low-end salary saver.
He’s just not likely to produce much offense either, which is the main problem. He’s +400 to win ITD which is somewhat poor as well.
Even if Craig lands 45 significant strikes and wins a decision, do you want 55 DK points? Possibly…
The real upside for Craig lies in his ability to land takedowns, and win ITD. If he can do that, he’ll have a great chance to clear the optimal lineup. I really do not feel confident in that outcome at all, but I don’t mind taking a few chances here when I need salary relief, as Bukauskas has some process issues himself.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Bukauskas by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Bolaji Oki vs. Mason Jones
Fight Odds: Jones -139, Oki +118
Odds to end ITD: -105
DraftKings Salaries: Jones 8.6k, Oki 7.6k
Weight Class: 155
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Bolaji Oki’s a Contender Series alum from the 2023 season now in search of his 3rd promotional win – he’s 2-1 in the UFC and 10-2 as a pro. Mason Jones is a homegrown Cage Warriors talent who was signed to the UFC back in 2021 on the heels of winning belts in two different weight classes. He had a rocky first stint though, resulting in his release in 2022. He went back to the regional scene where he picked up four straight wins and was re-signed earlier this year with a winning effort in his re-debut – he’s 2-2 in the UFC and 16-2 as a pro.
The striking component:
Oki comes from a kickboxing background and is now in his 8th year as a pro MMA fighter.
Ironically, he’s not the biggest kicker in the world and prefers his hands and knees as his primary weapons.
Traditionally, he has a more methodical, stalking based nature, looking to control the center and lead the dance on his opponents.
So, he’s not a volume machine at distance per say but picks his shots well and will start to unload on opponents he has hurt. Although, he’s coming off a war with Aswell where he landed 136 significant strikes and threw 300 over 15 minutes, so it’s a nice added benchmark for Oki that he can fight and maintain in a war.
I’d say his two main core competencies are his hand speed and his ability to find the liver with both punches and knees, as I’ve seen him put multiple guys down targeting the body.
Defensively, he does a good job of getting his hands up on original exchanges and generally keeping guys on the end of his punches.
But he will drop his hands at the end of combos and can be susceptible within the pocket when more phone booth types of exchanges happen.
However, he’s worn any damage well to date and has been a finisher with five of his 10 pro wins coming via KO.
It does need to be noted that he hasn’t fought a very strong strength of schedule overall, but he beat a credentialled kickboxer in Dylan Salvador on Contender Series, which was an impressive showing to me, Cuamba isn’t a slouch and he was winning the striking exchanges against Duncan. But he also ate over 100 significant strikes from Aswell and dropped the first round.
Jones is a base grappler but a guy who likes to strike as well, working a forward pressure, boxing-based approach and will mix in some solid leg kicks as well.
His stats sample is smaller so I won’t reference but he’s shown to be incredibly high output throughout the course of his career in addition to his UFC run.
The issue with Jones is that he is hittable and will rely on his chin.
Actually, the best comparison I can make with Jones is to another fellow Cage Warriors alum in Nathaniel Wood.
But despite his defensive inefficiencies, he’s proven to be very durable historically and reps seven pro wins via KO/TKO.
Some of the shots he took in his debut against Davis were truly unreal, where he hung tough and went a full 15 minutes against a solid boxer which you could make the argument he won the fight (I scored it for Davis as did the judges though).
Onama gave him one hell of a fight as well in what was a competitive striking affair. He obviously looked solid against Stephens, 2xing him on strikes but took some clean shots and leg kicks in there to boot.
However, he struggled with the range game of Klein – specifically his kicks and counters which really stifled the offense of Jones in addition to Klein hurting him in round twp.
Overall, Jones has that junkyard dog in him where his output, pressure and toughness won’t make for an easy night at the office. However, he will need to address his defensive issues if he wants to climb the ranks and break the top 15.
How it plays out: Off the top, both guys will be at relative size parity so not much to report there – Jones will have a 1” reach edge. While Oki has profiled as more of a methodical striker in totality, given Jones’ style, I’d assume this will be another fight similar to his last that will produce high volume exchanges both ways. Both also tend to do best when they can lead the dance and be on the front foot so I’ll be curious to see if one guy can really get the respect of the other. Of the two, Oki is better defensively and has more conventional power in my opinion but Jones has some pop as well and also has more proven durability. I also think the leg kicks of Jones could give some bigger issues to Oki as he stands very heavy on his lead leg and Jones will rip them.
The wrestling/grappling component:
I’m unsure of Oki’s floor background and we haven’t seen a ton of him on the ground in his career.
His 1st pro loss did come via wrestling though back in 2018 where he was taken down 3-4 times and controlled for roughly 5-6 minutes, which served as the difference maker there.
However, it does appear that he’s evolved his TDD since that fight as he’s shown a decent sprawl and the ability to dig underhooks. He’s still given up a few TDs but has been able to work back up to the feet in shorter order/avoid being flattened.
However, he ultimately succumbed to a guillotine against Duncan despite getting out of the original attempt – Duncan recently guillotined Vucenic as well so it’s not something that’s aging as poorly as it maybe did at the time, although he wasn’t doing the proper things.
Offensively, he’s mixed TDs into a handful of fights but had the most success against Melikyan in his last regional decision win, landing 4-5 TDs.
However, he’s really only gone to it when he starts eating more shots or becomes more labored – it’s hard to project him to come out and shoot TDs in volume – he shot a few most recently against Duncan though and caught a kick versus Cuamba.
Oki has one submission win via guillotine as well where the opponent tried to reshoot on him, but he snagged the neck up quickly. Outside of that, we haven’t seen much of Oki’s jiu-jitsu on display.
Overall, with Oki being a base kickboxer, I’d assume the floor is where his primary struggles will come in the UFC when facing better ground fighters but as noted, it does appear to be something he’s worked on over the years and has some offensive upside as well.
Jones is one of these “new age” guys who grew up in mixed martial arts and trained in many disciplines but fancied originally as a grappler repping a black belt in both Judo and BJJ.
As noted above, he definitely prefers to stand and strike first though as he’s had advantages standing over many opponents but has traditionally mixed TDs into his fights and is also capable of shooting and landing in volume – 4.2 TDs/15 minutes at 52% through his five documented UFC fights.
We saw him do some solid work on top of Patrick, and he landed eight TDs against Onama, racking up 9+ minutes of control time.
He prioritized more towards the ends of rounds 1 and 2 against Stephens, but pushed heavy in round 3, racking up six minutes of control.
Defensively, he’s been taken down before but not held down extensively much, as his guard is very active to create sweep opportunities, threaten subs or work back to the feet.
Even in his UFC debut against Davis (who’s a good wrestler), he was taken down three times but only controlled for 50 seconds in totality.
Klein’s the guy that got the most control on him but it was post knockdown in round 2 and after he jumped guard in round 3 when his striking wasn’t working much.
Overall, he hasn’t been much of a submission threat throughout his career but has shown capable offensive wrestling and he can use his BJJ and Judo background to be a threat/defensively responsible.
How it plays out: Despite referencing some improvements from Oki since his early days, the ground favors Jones and probably in a decent way. How much he’s actually going to pursue here is questionable and I don’t necessarily think he’ll have the easiest of times getting Oki down, but I also feel fairly confident that Jones has sizeable edge in the grappling where Oki just hasn’t been tested much – watching the Duncan sequence leads me to believe he’s still pretty raw in the BJJ department though.
Fun scrap. The striking has some variable elements just given the dynamic but Jones’ grappling upside is what ultimately pushes me more strongly towards his side. But if he wants to just go to war for 15 minutes or can’t get Oki down, the fight definitely becomes more variable.
—
On DraftKings, this is one fight that’s firmly on my radar and I view both sides as strong fantasy targets.
I’m a huge fan of Mason Jones – and have targeted as much as possible through the majority of his UFC career. It hasn’t always worked out, but he’s a dog who will fight for your money, and he’s shown fantasy upside in victories.
In his wins in the UFC, Jones has scored 118 and 127, and he was on his way to another smash against Patrick which ultimately resulted in a NC. While he won’t always reach 115+, he pushes a pace and can strike and wrestle in volume, with finishing equity on both fronts mixed in. He’s a very solid fantasy target.
In this particular fight, Jones may have his work cut out for him. I don’t know if it will be easy to get Oki down, nor do I think Jones will walk through Oki on the feet. But, when Jones wins, he produces a lot of offense and I think it’s likely that takedowns will once again be involved.
He’s priced at 8.6k this week and I think it’s very likely Jones exceeds value in a win once again. He’s only +275 to win ITD, but that shows some finishing equity. In a decision, I wouldn’t be surprised if he landed 90 significant strikes and 2-5 takedowns, which would score in the low 80s on the low end, and push into the mid 90s or above on the high end.
Of course, he’s also landed 8 takedowns in each of his last two wins, so we know he has game-breaking output as well.
I’m a bit nervous to jam Jones in this week as this feels like a bit of a test for him. I’m not certain he wins, and he may not have pure upside compared to some past fights. However, his floor in a win feels incredibly strong and it’s still a fine matchup on paper.
At 8.6k, Jones looks like a strong mid-range target and will likely be a semi-priority for me this week.
Oki at 7.6k is a pretty strong target as well.
I don’t think he profiles as well as Jones, but in order to beat Jones, you have to match him in pace or hurt him.
The caveat to that I suppose is that Klein beat him and only landed 50 sig. strikes. But Klein is so low volume and he also scored a knockdown in that fight.
I would expect Oki to land 80-100 or more significant strikes in a win, and very likely mix in a knockdown as well. He has damage upside here.
Jones will certainly be popular, but I’d expect the public to be on Oki to a degree as well and I think it’s correct. This has potential to be one of the higher paced fights on the slate, with volume production on both sides. Oki is also +275 to win ITD though it may be a bit high, he carries power.
I will be higher on Jones than I will be on Oki as I prefer Jones in the matchup, but at 7.6k, Oki is a strong secondary target and I’d like to be near the field or overweight as well.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Jones by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Rhys McKee vs. Axel Sola
Fight Odds: Sola -131, McKee +112
Odds to end ITD: +115
DraftKings Salaries: Sola 8.5k, McKee 7.7k
Weight Class: 170
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Axel Sola’s a French national who had a pretty extensive amateur career prior to turning pro back in 2021. He’s been a staple of the French promotion ARES FC for the last few years, and is coming off his 4th lightweight title defense back in June. He’ll be making his UFC debut on Saturday – he’s 10-0-1 as a pro. Rhys McKee’s now in his second UFC stint which hasn’t gone much better than his first, but he is coming off his first promotional win back in April – he’s 1-4 in the UFC and 14-6-1 as a pro. Side note, this fight will be at 170 lbs and was put together relatively late just a few weeks back – neither guy had anything booked prior to my knowledge.
The striking component:
As noted, Sola’s spent his recent run at 155 lbs but he won’t be a “small” 170 standing 5’11” with a 74” reach.
I’m unsure of his official background but he stands southpaw and fights out of a bladed karate like stance. He’ll be relatively light on his fight but he’s a lot more linear in his approach and doesn’t move a ton laterally.
I’d put his pacing on the average to lower end of the spectrum as he operates more as a tactician in looking to break guys down. But he is pretty quick/technical with a clean jab, follow hooks, some body work and good kicks.
He’s got five wins via KO/TKO but I wouldn’t classify him as a perennial big hitter – his finishes are more so coming via attrition.
Defensively, he’s tended to be a step ahead of his opponents in being able flow in and out of range but as noted, he is a linear fighter so he’s also had issues with straight shots and effective pressure at times, although he’s traditionally not eating extended combinations and is often getting the better of the exchanges.
Obviously as an undefeated fighter he’s never been stopped with strikes but he was hurt badly in the first round of his fight with Imavov – he showed his heart to make it through the sequence and the round but it ultimately resulted in a 10-8 which is what forced the draw as Sola officially won three of the five rounds.
Overall, Sola is a fine striker but he also hasn’t fought many good strikers.
McKee’s a good-sized 170 standing 6’2” with a 78” reach.
However, he often hasn’t been a guy that’s used his length particularly well from a defensive perspective, and has been a very hittable fighter throughout his career.
His defense looked better in his outing against Wallhead although it still wasn’t great and Wallhead is a base grappler. But he’s shown to be a tough guy having only been finished via strikes twice – once earlier on his pro career and in his UFC debut on the floor against Chimaev – no shame.
Offensively, he’s traditionally an aggressive striker that works at a higher pace that also builds throughout the course of his fights. As a result, four of his last six wins have come via latter stoppages.
He falls more into the technical brawler category, and if guys don’t have the footwork and defense to keep him at bay, he will chip away over the course of his fights.
We did see the footwork of Morono give him some issues, but McKee still landed a high volume of strikes.
He more recently by and large got worked by Loosa but also had him on the ropes late would have probably finished with more time permitting – Chidi just kicked him at range and outlanded him in the clinch – too technical for McKee.
Most recently he got after Frunza, hurting him thre times and shutting his eye leading to the doctor stoppage after the round – although the strike counts were still evens at 43 a piece so Frunza was still landing.
Overall, McKee’s still only 29 years old and a guy who’s got decent boxing and volume, but he still hasn’t learned how to use his length yet (probably won’t) and can often be a punching bag.
How it plays out: Off the top, McKee will realize a size advantage of 3” in height and 4” in reach. But as noted, it hasn’t helped McKee much on the defensive front. There’s definite merit to McKee here if he can force Sola into a dog fight, but Sola’s also shown to be pretty disciplined in that way in terms of keeping to his approach. While McKee’s volume is better on the macro, he’s so hittable to where Sola’s going to be able to land whenever he wants and also has attributes in his style that’s ultimately given McKee problems. McKee also hasn’t fought any southpaws in the UFC which needs to be noted.
The wrestling/grappling component:
I’m unsure of Sola’s grappling credentials as well and there’s not a ton to say with him here.
He’s looked to mix TDs into most of his fights but his overall success has been a bit spotty. He hasn’t shown much ability in the open mat and is more so reliant on getting guys to the fence and taking them down from there.
But he’s also gotten stonewalled a healthy amount as I don’t think his general entries are very good.
On top, he’s only got one pro win via submission which came in his first pro fight but he hasn’t shown much in that department since – he did finish a guy from crucifix a few fights back but overall hasn’t done a ton on top.
Defensively, his TDD is okay – not bad but not good either.
But he’s shown the ability to get back to the feet and not give up compromising positions at least to date.
Overall, I still don’t have a great read on Sola as a ground fighter but would put him in the serviceable category for now.
McKee’s a BJJ purple belt with three pro wins coming via submission but the ground’s historically been more of a negative than a positive for him.
As alluded to above, he got pounded out by Chimaev and was taken down three times by Alex Morono despite Morono not accruing high amounts of control time – still not a great look with Morono going 3/3 considering Morono has never landed more than 1 TD in any other UFC fight.
Brazier outwrestled him back in the day and we also saw Burlinson give him some bigger issues earlier on in that fight advancing into dominant positions – McKee did work out of those positions though.
More recently, Loosa went 6/10 on TDs racking up 6 minutes of control – in addition to landing a healthy number of clinch and ground strikes which nearly put McKee out on one occasion.
Offensively, he’s just not a guy you can trust to wrestle with any consistency as a guy that wants to stand and strike. He’s mixed TDs in on occasion but he’s not a good wrestler.
He more or less just clinched up with Chidi in that fight which didn’t go well and a lot of his subs (meaning 3) are just reactionary based on opponent wrestling or lost positions.
Overall, I’d still classify the ground as more of a weakness for McKee.
How it plays out: I don’t rate the ground game of either much but I’d give Sola more upside in the sense that he’s been more consistent to attempt TDs in comparison to McKee and of the two, I’d say he also has the better TDD. How much he’s actually going to push it here and how much success he’ll have is highly questionable though.
As noted, this was a throw together fight so neither guy’s had a full camp or much time to prepare for the other so these spots can produce degrees of variance on that alone. I can’t say I was blown back by Sola’s tape but I think he’s a decent fighter. Conversely, I’ve been pretty anti-McKee over the years because the guy’s made very little evolution in his game and probably just is what he is at this point. That said, he’s tough, aggressive and will be the bigger guy so McKee winning wouldn’t be shocking to me. But I do come away liking Sola a little bit in the matchup especially in a bigger cage – with circumstance, can’t be too confident though.
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On DraftKings, I’m not dying to target this one though I’d say there’s a fair floor for the winner in terms of strikes landed.
And in that, it’s possible someone gets hurt. The matchup as a whole is -145 to go the distance though, which doesn’t make me extremely excited to load up.
Sola is priced at 8.5k and probably needs the finish to stand out. I do think he can land volume on McKee but he’s been a decision guy historically, and is plenty willing and able to fight a full 25 minutes.
Still, as he lands, Sola could possibly hurt Mckee. He’s +235 to win ITD which is a fair enough line. Shows some upside but largely the expectation is an extended fight.
The other point to note is that Sola could wrestle. I doubt he does much with his takedowns but 1-2 is in play. If he can rack up a few, earn some control time, and beat McKee up standing, that’s where we can start to see him exceeding value in a decision.
The most likely outcome in my mind is still probably a mid-tier score. Something like 80 significant strikes and a takedown or two from Sola, which would potentially push him toward 80 DK points. It’s not enough for me to be excited on a bigger slate at 8.5k.
I’m not completely opposed to playing some Sola, but he’s only a secondary target and likely does need a TKO to cement himself on the optimal lineup. I don’t view that as the most likely outcome but I’m also expecting Sola to be semi-unique, and if you want to mix him in for that purpose, I can get behind a few shares here and there.
McKee at 7.7k doesn’t interest me a whole lot.
I worry a bit about him being more popular than he deserves to be, coming off a 143 point score. While that’s a total smash, it’s worth mentioning that he didn’t actually knock Frunza out and I wouldn’t have been surprised if Frunza came back to win that fight, given that McKee was getting hit pretty hard at the end of the round. The doctor had to manage Frunza’s eye, so it is what it is.
Otherwise, McKee is a bit of a brawler who still carries terrible negative striking ratios, and doesn’t wrestle. It’s not a great recipe for success. I’m open to the idea of his pacing and size being too much for Sola here, but I think Sola is more technical and I’m still not sure McKee has tons of upside.
McKee is only +325 to win ITD and without a knockout, I doubt he smashes value at 7.7k. There are some fights surrounding this one that I prefer to target, so in that sense, McKee is just not a priority.
If you want to fall into the 7k range and get some win equity, McKee is viable. He has a striking path to victory with some variance related KO upside. But I’m picking Sola and wouldn’t want McKee to be a real staple of my lineups personally. A viable secondary target but a lower end one for me.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Sola by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Patricio Freire vs. Losene Keita
Fight Odds: Keita -225, Freire +189
Odds to end ITD: +135
DraftKings Salaries: Keita 8.9k, Freire 7.3k
Weight Class: 145
Eyes will be on the two-weight OKTAGON champion Losene Keita, who will be making his UFC debut on Saturday against the former Bellator champion Patricio “Pitbull” Freire.
Keita is 16-1 professionally at age 27, and he’s earned 10 wins by knockout and six by decision.
Keita is primarily a boxer, and an explosive knockout artist. He likes to walk his opponents down and unload on them with vicious punches.
With that style, he’s had lots of success. Opponents are afraid of his power and rightfully so, as they back up, they do not offer much for Keita in return.
I honestly hoped to be more impressed with Keita when watching his tape because although he’s an explosive power puncher, his game feels extremely limited to my eye.
Keita doesn’t throw a whole lot of volume, so he’s going to fall into the “moments” category of fighter which I don’t love, and he’ll have tendencies to fight in close rounds where he’s not landing a huge shot.
Furthermore, Keita has some classic power striker issues in that he slows down in fights, and he also struggles to wrestle defensively. Neither issue is horrendous, but Keita has lost round 3s before, and he’s also been taken down and outgrappled on multiple occasions.
I’ve also seen Keita rocked, and his only pro loss came by KO in round one. So really, Keita probably needs early damage to sustain wins at the UFC level.
I do believe he’s capable of it. Standing orthodox, his boxing is good, and he will wing power shots when he feels his opponents are vulnerable. He can throw the occasional flying knee and there’s some other explosive movements in his arsenal.
But he’s not a volume striker, and he doesn’t kick much. He could be the type to land 50 or less significant strikes in a fight. I just don’t love that style.
HIs defensive wrestling isn’t horrible, and his pure athleticism will allow him to scramble up from the bottom. But he also can be taken down, controlled, and he can give up his back. He should lose to strong wrestlers, though those come few and far between.
As noted, I also worry a bit more about him as the fight progresses,
It’s an interesting test against the aging vet in Pitbull, who is actually coming off a really strong victory over Dan Ige in which Pitbull showed some aggression and wrestling, and took home the decision.
Prior to that, Pitbull lost his UFC debut to Yair Rodriguez, who mostly dominated the fight, outlanding Freire 70-17 and nearly finished him at one point as well.
It’s not that Pitbull is a bad fighter or has nothing left in the tank, but he is now 38 years old, and he’s accrued 45 professional fights to his name. It seems pretty clear to me that his best days are behind him and fighting the best of the UFC’s featherweight division will give him problems.
With that said, Pitbull is a pretty good fighter and he’s quite well-rounded. He’s a former featherweight and lightweight champion. He’s a scrappy boxer with some power, and he’s a fine wrestler and top-control grappler.
He’s earned 12 wins by knockout and another 12 by submission, and he’s also gone the five round distance on more than one occasion. He has quality wins over Emmanuel Sanchez, AJ McKee and Juan Archuleta. He also knocked out Michael Chandler in about a minute in 2019.
Outside of the UFC, Pitbull recently lost a five-round decision to Sergio Pettis for the bantamweight championship, though Pettis is truly one of the best in the world. He was knocked out by Chihiro Suzuki in the RIZIN Superfighter, and most recently, Pitbull knocked out ex-UFC fighter Jeremy Kennedy in March of 2024.
I think my biggest gripe right now with Pitbull is that he’s too low volume on the feet for his size. He is small for the featherweight division, standing only 5’6”, and he will be clearly outsized by many opponents. Pitbull is still a solid boxer who likes to counter but he just doesn’t throw enough and I think that will be an issue moving forward.
Additionally, the age, and wear and tear factor comes into play. He’s a super durable guy, having only been knocked out twice, but he’s been getting hurt more often recently and I don’t necessarily think that aspect will improve.
Pitbull is a good wrestler and top player as well but he’s just not super urgent there either. I don’t think he’s a dominating force on the mat but it’s still a method for him to change up the game.
Overall, Pitbull is a fun addition to the featherweight roster and someone who can definitely win fights at the UFC level. But it’s likely a bit too late in the game to see him actually climb the ladder.
Clearly, it was the wrestling that led Pitbull to success against Ige, as he put his foot on the gas pedal and attempted nine takedowns, landing five of them. He still only accrued 2:44 of control which is terrible, but Ige is a black belt in BJJ to be fair and tough to control.
I also think clearly, that’s what Pitbull will need to do to beat Keita, and I’m open to the idea that he can have success.
The primary difference between the two matchups is that Keita is bigger, standing 5’9” and he should clearly outsize Pitbull in frame and physicality. I expect Keita to be a fiercer presence on the feet, and potentially equally difficult to control on the mat.
Because of that, it’s very possible that Pitbull gets hurt here. If he cannot land takedowns, he’s not out of the feet, but Keita has a power advantage and a youth advantage as well.
I don’t mind betting on the durability of Pitbull as he’s super tough to finish, and historically, this is not a spot I’d be confident in Keita winning by knockout. But I wouldn’t be shocked by that outcome either.
If Keita isn’t landing a big, devastating shot though, he’s probably not winning cleanly. Pitbull is a very competent boxer and probably will fight low-volume here once again, limiting exchanges. We could see some slower paced rounds because of it.
Pitbull also clearly has the grappling edge, to the point where he might even be able to finish Keita on the mat.
The most likely outcome is that Pitbull probably can land a couple of takedowns, but probably cannot hold Keita down for long periods of time. But the fact that any takedowns might land still gives Pitbull a legitimate path to win. And as noted, Keita slows down, meaning that if Pitbull gets on top of him late, he might struggle more to get back to his feet.
This isn’t a fight I feel super comfortable with, but the dynamic is fairly straightforward. Keita has a path to an early KO, but those outcomes are tough to cap and I wouldn’t be surprised if Pitbull survived.
Conversely, Pitbull clearly has a path to win on the mat, and I think projecting him for mild success over three rounds is fair. Keita is big and physical though, so it won’t be an easy path either way.
I expect Keita’s defense to hold up well enough in the early rounds, so I suppose I’ll lean toward him winning the fight. But if he doesn’t crack Pitbull’s chin, the fight is still probably quite competitive.
—
On DraftKings, Keita is priced up to 8.9k and will be dependent on the early knockout.
He’s certainly capable of it based on profile, but there’s so much variance in these kinds of fights, especially with an aging opponent. He could smash Pitbull in RD 1, or he might never come close to landing that kill shot.
Having exposure to Keita makes sense, but I’d be very nervous to have a lot of him. Especially at 8.9k, and especially as any extended fight is probably a disaster for Keita. Even if the fight hits round two, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Keita win by TKO and only score in the mid-90s.
On a bigger slate, targeting Keita heavily feels like a bigger risk than what I’m willing to take personally. But he still carries finishing equity and is lined at +200 to win ITD, which is OK.
I wouldn’t want Keita to kill me and with a larger portfolio, he’s a very solid secondary target. But I wouldn’t want to be much overweight here and coming in near the field makes sense.
Pitbull at 7.3k has upside if he can win in the same manner that he just beat Ige.
Pitbull still only scored 85 points, but attempting nine takedowns with control upside at 7.3k is a solid strategy to score fantasy points.
I really don’t want to be betting on Pitbull here, as I could easily picture him failing to land some takedowns and getting shut out. But the fact that Keita isn’t super polished as a wrestler and grappler does make me nervous, as does his cardio.
So, Pitbull will also rate out as a secondary target for this price. I wouldn’t want none of him as he might just land a few takedowns and win a decision. Keita can also be hurt, and so Pitbull will carry some finishing equity too at +500 to win ITD.
I wouldn’t want to be overly invested either.
Ultimately, this fight really lines up as a “don’t kill me spot”. Both sides have paths to upside, but I do fear the most likely outcome is a slower paced, neutralizing affair where both bust completely.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Keita by Decision (Confidence=Low)
UNDERCARD
William Gomis vs. Robert Ruchala
Fight Odds: Gomis -259, Ruchala +216
Odds to end ITD: +195
DraftKings Salaries: Gomis 9k, Ruchala 7.2k
Weight Class: 145
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a decent featherweight bout here between UFC veteran Willam Gomis and UFC newcomer Robert Ruchala.
Gomis is a French fighter who is 4-1 in the UFC. He has a couple of solid wins against Francis Marshall and Joanderson Brito. However, he lost his last fight in a very close decision against Hyder Amil where he got a pace pushed on him.
Gomis kind of reminds me of a poor man’s version of Aljamain Sterling. I have a soft spot for him because he cashed for me in his UFC debut and against Yanis Ghemmouri.
Like Aljamain, Gomis likes to use an evasive awkward kicking game to just outpoint his opponents. It isn’t the prettiest thing in the world, but he is generally winning the striking exchanges on the scorecards. He lands 3.53 significant strikes per minute and absorbs a very low 3.86, and defends strikes at a good 60 percent.
Gomis isn’t landing a ton of strikes but he minimizes engagements very well, mixes in his kicks decently and never gets hit too clean. I want to point out he absorbed ZERO head strikes in 12 minutes of fighting against Ghemmouri which is solid. I think he is very defensively sound and pretty fast, and is a tough cat to hit when he is fresh. If a pace is pushed on Gomis he can slow down as seen against Amil. However, overall, I think Gomis is a solid neutralizing striker.
Gomis also likes to clinch up and occasionally wrestle. He landed three takedowns in his first UFC fight. He gets a lot of standing back takes where he either tries to put hooks in or just hold position. He can also occasionally mix in a double leg. He can hold position somewhat well and I consider his overall grappling game competent. I have also seen him scramble up well when taken down. Gomis is also just a good athlete.
Gomis will be taking on Polish fighter Robert Ruchala who will be making his UFC debut. Ruchala is 11-1 professionally and 27 years old. He has generally fought in KSW which is a decent Polish promotion that develops occasional good fighters. Ruchala was the Interim featherweight champion in KSW.
This guy is okay but I honestly don’t think he is a good talent and don’t think he will go far in this division. I mostly label him a lanky distance kicking striker who can occasionally land some takedowns against bad grapplers.
On the feet, Ruchala uses his 5’10” frame to kind of stick and move with kicks. He doesn’t throw his hands often. He will switch stances and mix in occasional body kicks and leg kicks, and can sneak in a head kick here and there. I don’t think he is that good though and he isn’t super powerful either. I’ve also seen him tagged a bit too and I feel like he will get hit more as he gets steps up in competition. I do think he is somewhat tough though.
I think the best part of Ruchala’s striking game is probably his cardio. I have seen him fight 4-5 rounds with no issue. He doesn’t throw in high volume though, and can slow the pace down and limit engagements. He doesn’t push a huge pace.
Ruchala can occasionally land takedowns but he isn’t very physical and I don’t think his grappling game will be impactful in the UFC. He was actually generally outgrappled against former UFC fighter Damian Stasiak who was never good. Ruchala won the fight by split decision but I honestly wasn’t even sure Ruchala deserved that decision.
Ruchala can be taken down a bit and held down a bit which you saw in that fight. Ruchala at least seems like he sort of knows BJJ on the mat but he is just whatever as a grappler.
As far as this matchup goes, I honestly think Gomis is better everywhere. On the feet, these guys actually both have some similar attributes. Both are long and like to use kicks. I just think Gomis is better at that style of fight though. Gomis is faster and looks better defensively to me. Gomis has also beaten way better competition. I do think Ruchala can maybe strike competitively at times. I don’t think Ruchala is a god awful striker.
However, Ruchala doesn’t push a pace and I just feel like that plays right into Gomis’ game who will gladly skate around and kick his way to a decision. I also think Gomis is probably more likely to win by knockout as he is better defensively.
I even favor Gomis as a grappler. I doubt Ruchala can take and hold Gomis down. Gomis is actually a sneaky decent offensive grappler himself and I think he could land takedowns here and get a backtake and get good positions on the mat. I just think Gomis is better overall so he is the pick for me.
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On DraftKings, while I like Gomis to win, I’m not sure I want to pay up for him at 9k.
Gomis has won four times in the UFC and scored 80, 42, 69, and 64. That 69 pointer came in a 3rd round knockout as well. Had he won his most recent bout against Amil, he would have only scored 76 points.
It seems pretty difficult to invest in Gomis given his career history and I expect most will just choose to fade him outright.
Honestly, there’s no other way to really view this other than using Gomis as a contrarian target. Could he potentially “smash” inferior competition here? Maybe. But he hasn’t landed a takedown in any of his past four fights, and he’s once again only +285 to win ITD.
I wouldn’t be totally shocked if he won ITD, but Gomis’ game plan is probably to point fight, as usual. He tends to fight close too, as none of his four UFC decisions have either been unanimous.
If you want to take a shot on Gomis as a mid-teens owned target with mild finishing equity, simply to be unique, I can get behind that for a small percentage of lineups. But the most likely outcome here is probably another decision in which he fails to produce 10x.
Ruchala at 7.2k doesn’t interest me much.
Gomis isn’t easy to produce offense against either and he will want to slow the pace of the fight down. I think Gomis should win, and Ruchala doesn’t strike me as a real prospect.
Could Ruchala fight close? Yeah, possibly and he could possibly win a split decision. I don’t think he will have much wrestling success if any, and I doubt he lands 80+ significant strikes.
So really, I don’t see much upside here with Ruchala and I’d rather invest elsewhere in this range. He’s also +550 to win ITD so he won’t rate out well overall.
I also expect Ruchala to be low owned which is one benefit, but there are just better dogs in my opinion who have better chances of winning and producing ceiling scores.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Gomis by Decision (Confidence=Medium)
Oumar Sy vs. Brendson Ribeiro
Fight Odds: Sy -442, Ribeiro +348
Odds to end ITD: -260
DraftKings Salaries: Sy 9.5k, Ribeiro 6.7k
Weight Class: 205
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
It looks like the UFC wants French fighter Oumar Sy to get a win in Paris as they gave him a favorable matchup against Brendson Ribeiro.
Sy is 11-1 professionally and fights out of France. He is actually the brother of Sadibou Sy who is a pretty well-known fighter in PFL.
Before his UFC debut, Sy generally fought in random regional promotions. He fought in KSW which is a respectable promotion. In his UFC debut, Sy quickly finished Tokkos on the mat. He then defeated Da Woon Jung by decision and actually outlanded Jung 78-25 at range which was a decent striking performance by him.
Sy was then upset by Alonzo Menifield in his last matchup. Sy was unable to consistently take Menifield down and basically got pulled into a low volume striking affair. It was a bit of a disappointing performance by him.
I still think Sy is okay. He is very green, but he is a good athlete. He can strike a bit and stay safe and has some power in his hands.
Ultimately, Sy likes to shoot takedowns and obtain top position. He is actually pretty good at riding the back, floating with hooks in and can threaten with RNCs as well. He actually uses cross body wrist rides well to land ground-and-pound and manipulate his opponents.
The issue is Sy doesn’t come from a wrestling background and has fallen in love with wrestling. His persistence to wrestle will work vs non wrestlers. However, he just won’t be able to outwrestle anyone who is a solid defensive wrestler and the Menifield fight kind of showed that.
I think Sy needs some time to develop though but his athleticism and decent wrestling game should be enough for him to win some UFC fights. I also like that I have seen him fight for 15 minutes without slowing down.
Sy will be taking on Brendson Ribeiro. Ribeiro is Brazilian and is 2-3 in the UFC, generally fighting bad competition.
I don’t think highly of Ribeiro. He isn’t really good at anything. He is probably best as a moments based striker. He lands 3.26 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.04 in return. He defends strikes at 52 percent. His metrics are not strong. He can also get knocked out and has been knocked dead twice. He does have some danger and can occasionally land some bombs but that is about it.
As a grappler, Ribeiro isn’t great. He has landed a couple of takedowns and has a random submission win in the UFC. However, he is defending takedowns at 0 percent lol and was controlled for 10 minutes against Magomed Gadzhiyasulov. He will continue to get outwrestled in this division.
As far as this matchup goes, Sy definitely has a grappling path. He can probably land takedowns at will here and consolidate a lot of control or even just submit Ribeiro. I am going to pick a ground finish to happen and Sy is a rightful favorite for his grappling upside.
On the feet, I still favor Sy as a round winning striker. Sy’s striking performance against Jung was actually decent and Ribeiro’s metrics are horrible. Sy is likely more durable as well and could win by standing knockouts. I think Ribeiro’s best chance here is just landing a bomb or I don’t see Ribeiro winning here.
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On DraftKings, Sy is the most expensive fighter on the board at 9.5k and it will be interesting to see how popular he is, coming off a bust at a similar price tag in his last matchup.
While he wasn’t a priority in that last fight given the strength of the top range, we still had hope for him, and he failed to wrestle successfully, landing only one takedown on five attempts, and losing a decision that scored him 27 DraftKings points.
Prior to that, he had a bit more success against Jung but still underperformed at 9.4k and scored only 83 DK points.
You have to look to his UFC debut where he landed two takedowns in a round one finish, and scored 107 DK points, to drive confidence.
In this next matchup, I do think Sy should win. He probably lands takedowns and he could beat Ribeiro up on the mat. I’m not a fan of Ribeiro. But I’m also not completely confident in Sy and he still seems like he needs developing to do.
The issue is this top range is super weak. I’m not sure any fighter is a must to pay up for, and it may be worthwhile to leave tons of salary on the table this week.
I really like the upper 8k options and would be completely fine starting lineups with them, though there’s merit to some 9k fighters too. If I have to pay up completely, Sy is probably the guy I’d choose.
He’s -155 to win ITD which is ultimately what we want, plus the wrestling equity. If he’s getting a grappling based finish, that’s going to give him a shot to clear 100 points and contend for the optimal lineup.
I worry that he’ll be paired too much with Fernandes for cheap, but the counter is that if you’re playing Fernandes, you have as much salary as you need to pay up this far. It’s an easy click.
I don’t consider Sy a lock from an upside standpoint, but he seems like a strong tournament target considering the finishing equity against a weaker opponent in Ribeiro. I wouldn’t mind going back to the well with moderate exposure.
Ribeiro at 6.7k doesn’t really interest me.
I will play Ribeiro occasionally if I think he can win by knockout, but I’d be surprised with that outcome here. He’s a big dog at +350 to win and he’s only +450 to win ITD.
I wouldn’t expect Ribeiro to be too popular, but when you have a -180 favorite priced directly above him, I understand why. There’s just not enough win equity on paper to target Ribeiro with any consistency.
He is simply a dart throw this week, and not one I particularly like. I’d much rather pay into the mid-low 7k range where there is more win equity, and with a limited portfolio, I’ll consider fading Ribeiro outright.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Sy by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium)
Marcin Tybura vs. Ante Delija
Fight Odds: Delija -111, Tybura -105
Odds to end ITD: -155
DraftKings Salaries: Delija 8.2k, Tybura 8k
Weight Class: HW
Marcin Tybura’s in his 10th year on the active roster and is getting up there in age at 39 years old. But he’s shown he can still go as an established top 15 heavyweight and is coming off back to back wins over undefeated prospects – he’s 14-8 in the UFC and 27-9 as a pro. Ante Delija’s a fellow long time veteran who gained more prominence in the PFL over the last five years and is a former champion. He was actually slated to debut in the UFC back in 2020 but they couldn’t come to a contractual agreement. He’s now ready to make his official UFC debut on Saturday – he’s 25-6 as a pro. This will be a rematch from 2015 where Delija snapped his leg two minutes into the fight back in Russia.
The striking component:
Tybura doesn’t come from a conventional striking background but is a decent boxer for the division.
His output isn’t anything special landing 3.6 SLpM at a 48% clip but those numbers will be skewed down a bit from grappling in his fights – his DLpM sits at 4.4 at 42% which is right around the divisional average.
However, it needs to be noted that he’s not significantly outpacing guys on the feet in the aggregate.
His fights at distance often tend to be competitive minute to minute or it’s a round to one guy, one round to another guy type of situation. He’s also not a historic distance power threat with only one of his UFC finish wins coming at distance which was a head kick back in 2016.
Defensively he’s not “horrible” but not great either eating 3.3 SApM at 55% and 4.5 DApM at 60%
He’s been KO’d in 4 of his 8 UFC losses and was getting tee’d off on by both Hardy and Harris despite winning those fights (Harris hurt him significantly but he was able to survive). Rothwell also took the 1st round from him on volume.
He looked tired in the Volkov fight as well where he competed but was outstruck at the end of the day – Volkov was also exhausted and the fight overall was just weird for both guys.
He was able to best Romanov on the feet, 2xing him at distance, but that was also largely a product of Romanov being completely exhausted after the 1st round though.
Him and Ivanov pot-shotted each other through the first two rounds where it was 1-1 going into three in a low volume affair. He got deaded by Aspinall in a minute but no shame there and he took some early bombs from Tuivasa and Diniz before he got going on his ground game. Most recently, the Parkin fight was a slop fest that could have gone either way.
In general, Tybura struggles with effective pressure and faster/more explosive heavyweights but is a serviceable striker that can hold his own if he’s staying conscious.
Delija’s a Croatian national that’s spent some time under Mirko Cro Crop in the more distant past.
I’m unsure of his official striking background but he’s a big boy, standing 6’5” with a 79” reach and takes a brooding/brawling approach.
He likes to stalk his opponents although he’s not a volume machine per say, where he more so waits until he can really corner guys and then he’ll uncork bombs on them.
So, he’s not the most technically proficient guy but he is super dangerous in those barrages, repping 11 pro wins via KO/TKO and has also hurt other opponents in fights he wasn’t able to finish.
Defensively, he’s not very good as his head doesn’t move off the center line much where he’s been susceptible to the jab from the outside and conversely, has ran into some bigger issues when opponents can put him on the back foot and let go on him.
However, he’s only really been conventionally KO’d once, which was the first matchup against Cappelozza where he got clipped early – he broke his leg against Tybura and had some injury in the Moldavsky KO loss more recently prior to the finish.
Overall, he’s got some “live by the sword, die by the sword” elements to his game which is going to produce continued volatility in the stand up of his fights going forward. I also think he’ll struggle with higher volume/tactical fighters at the UFC level.
How it plays out: Off the top, Delija will realize a slight size advantage of 2” in height 1” in reach. I’d profile extended exchanges to be somewhat competitive as Tybura’s probably the more technical guy and neither are volume machines, but Delija brings an honest power threat to Tybura where it can’t really be said the other way around. It’s been a second since Tybura’s gotten KO’d but as noted, he’s been hurt a bunch, is getting older and looked pretty sloppy in his last fight – Delija’s pretty live to put him down here.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Tybura’s ground game has been the biggest component of his UFC success to date as he’s landed at least one TD in 12 of his 14 wins.
He’s not a powerhouse wrestler by any means but an above average one for the division which from a high level gives him a leg up over many heavyweights.
He lands 1.4 TDs per 15 minutes at 33% — okay numbers that have dropped considerably since his fight with Volkov where he went 0/16 on TDs.
But when he is able to secure the TDs, he’s shown good control abilities to rack up minutes and is a black belt in BJJ despite not being a historic submission threat. Tybura more looks to prioritize ground strikes where he’s positionally TKO’d a handful opponents and submitted Tuivasa more recently.
He’s also outwrestled guys with historically respectable/good TDD in Arlovski, Spivac, Grishin, Rothwell and Ivanov.
Defensively, he stuffs at 75% which is solid and not many guys have really been able to have success on Tybura on the ground outside Werdum and Henrique earlier on in his run and most recently Parkin in round two which wasn’t the greatest of looks.
However, he also hasn’t faced many strong wrestlers throughout his longer UFC tenure which needs to be noted – probably one of the better one’s he fought was Spivac who didn’t attempt any TDs in the first fight and Tybura was actually able to outwrestle him – pretty impressive.
In the 2nd fight, Spivac scored an early TD, but Tybura reversed off a failed back take. Tybura then ended up getting guard subbed which was a rather shocking outcome. Despite that not being a great look, I felt like he got a bit complacent in the position in comparison to me now saying he’s a bad defensive grappler – Gillian Robertson got guard subbed once upon a time for context.
But we did see Romanov gain extensive control time in the 1st against Tybura – a round that probably should have been a 10-8, but Romanov outwrestles most opponents early in fairness and Tybura still hung tough to go on and win the latter two rounds.
Overall, you can’t necessarily trust Tybura to shoot a high volume of TDs fight to fight but the floor will be a continued component of him winning fights if he’s facing opponents who don’t come correct – as noted, his control components are good and he can finish so he’s been efficient and generally makes his TDs count.
I’m also unsure of Delija’s grappling background but I believe he’s done some Judo in the past.
In addition to his pressure striking style, he’s looked to wrestle in a lot of his fights as well where he’s found varying degrees of success.
He’s got quick entries to double legs but the issue is that he can shoot from far out at times and not set up his shots with strikes so they can be telegraphed and defended by more competent opponents. But he’s also shown some ability from the body lock against the fence to drag guys down or just cage push.
When on top, we’ve seen a bit all over the board with him as he’s been really aggressive with GNP in certain outings but more lay and pray in others.
He’s got 7 wins via submission but they all came earlier on in his career and against a low tier of competition – he hasn’t shown much threat in that department in recent years.
Defensively, I’d say his TDD is above-average but not great. He’s shown the ability to win underhook battles but has gotten taken down against the fence here and there.
When on the bottom, he can give up some minutes and dominant positions but has also shown the ability to reverse and work up as well.
He’s been submitted twice but again they came earlier on in his pro career 10+ years ago.
In totality, the ground has been more of a positive than a negative for Delija where he’s definitely capable of grinding guys out or smashing from top positions but there have been points of concern defensively.
How it plays out: Despite referencing historic ground success for both guys, I’d ultimately give the advantage to Tybura as I feel he has a more functional top game in comparison to Delija and will be the better jiu-jitsu player – coupled with that he’ll probably be the more willing party to shoot in this particular matchup. Conversely though, Delija isn’t as bad on the bottom as some of the other guys Tybura’s beaten there like a Diniz, Tuivasa, Harris, Hardy, etc. and is a capable TD defender. Delija could take Tybura down as well although I don’t if that would be the best gameplan – despite round of Tybura’s last fight.
Pretty high-variance heavyweight fight in my eyes where not a ton would shock me. While Tybura is the more proven guy at a higher level, Delija isn’t a bum and has some honest attributes to give bigger problems to Tybura – namely power. I’m leaning towards Delija knocking him out.
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On DraftKings, I’ve been very willing to target Tybura fights in the past and I won’t mind doing so again this week.
Primarily, he has some binary elements to his style where he largely succeeds on the mat, or gets knocked out on the feet. It’s not black and white in that sense, but both are viable outcomes.
In this particular matchup, I wouldn’t be shocked with either outcome. Delija is priced at 8.2k and I think carries upside in the matchup. He’s actually +130 to win ITD which is extremely strong, and puts him firmly on my radar for tournaments.
You can definitely argue that Delija is boom or bust though, and I wouldn’t count him as safe. But he has power in his boxing and I wouldn’t be too surprised if he connected. I also think he can take Tybura down though I’m not sure he will.
Overall, Delija rates out as a pretty solid upside target in the mid-range, and I wouldn’t mind being near or overweight to the field on him this week.
Tybura at 8k interests me less.
I do think he can take Delija down, but I’m much less sure he can dominate him there. Plus, Tybura is willing to kickbox at times and he just scored 62 points in a win, so I think there are more outcomes here where he wins a closer decision and busts.
Tybura is also only +300 to win ITD which makes me nervous. He has some finishing equity but is less of a knockout threat.
I really prefer to target Tybura when he can smash weak grapplers on the mat. I don’t view Delija in that frame, so I’m not really dying to target a lot of Tybura.
However, you can make the case that in a win, multiple takedowns will be involved, and so there’s still a path to a ceiling. He likely won’t be super chalky so as a differentiator in this mid-range, or as leverage against Delija, I don’t hate Tybura.
I do view him as a lower-end secondary target compared to Delija and won’t have as much exposure to him as I do to Delija.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Delija by TKO, RD 1 (Confidence=Low)
Kaue Fernandes vs. Harry Hardwick
Fight Odds: Fernandes -160, Hardwick +140
Odds to end ITD: Over 2.5 RDs -205
DraftKings Salaries: Hardwick 7.5k, Fernandes 6.8k
Weight Class: 155
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Kaue Fernandes is a newer addition to the UFC’s roster and one of the rare cases of a fighter who didn’t come off the Contender Series and didn’t debut on short notice – he’s 2-1 in the UFC and 10-2 as a pro. Harry Hardwick is a British national and an 8-fight vet of the Cage Warriors promotion in the UK where he’s the current 145 lb champion. He’ll be stepping in on a weeks’ notice up a weight class to make his UFC debut replacing Fares Ziam – he’s 12-3-1 pro.
The striking component:
Fernandes was a former 145er but still has a decent frame for 155, standing 5’9 with a 73” reach.
His first martial art was muay thai but fights more like a karate guy. He likes to fight at range primarily but will grab a hold of a clinch when opponents come in at times where he can land some knees and elbows.
But he’s a fighter that prefers to kick more than punch and has been lower volume throughout his career.
His volume will go up a bit more in pocket-based exchanges if guys are going to force those types of fights, but you can’t trust him to do a ton at range.
However, he’s shown to be dangerous with his kicks, finishing two of his LFA opponents to the body and head.
Additionally, he was able to do some good work to the legs of Diakiese in his debut, he compromised Yahya early before landing the straight right to put him down and also chewed up the lead leg of Kutateladze last time out, knocking him down twice with kicks.
Diakiese didn’t throw much back at him, but he was able to land his left hand clean every time he committed to throwing it. But he got attritionally beaten up in his last regional loss by Sardinha.
Overall, Fernandes is a guy opponents will need to mind their Ps and Qs with, but he has a style that I’m not the biggest fan of because if he’s not scoring KO’s or entirely dictating exchanges in low volume affairs, he’s going to be on the losing end of minutes at the UFC level as I still don’t think his hands are very good.
Hardwick comes from a muay thai background where him and his brother George (former CW lightweight champion & DWCS alum) began training in their teens, but quickly transitioned to MMA having his first amateur fight back in 2013.
You see a bit of the thai base in his game as he can round out his closer combinations with knees and elbows, but he largely profiles as more of a pressure boxer.
He’s a base orthodox fighter but will regularly switch stances in his fights and mixes up his boxing well, going to both the head and the body. Three of his 12 pro wins come via KO/TKO – two of which have come in his last three fights, but he’s not a perennial power guy and serves as more of an attritional striker.
That’s really the core competency of Hardwick’s game as he’s consistent to pressure opponents, keep a high work rate and look to break them down over the course of 15 or 25 minutes.
Defensively, he’s bad but not great either as he can be hittable in the lip of the pocket game he plays, as he’s fine to take a shot to then come back with 2, 3 or 4 of his own.
He got buckled a few times in the Lopes fight as some of the early entry power hooks gave him some issues but has shown to be a durable fighter to date having never been knocked out.
Overall, I largely like what I’ve seen from Hardwick on the feet as he’s got a style that’s going to be difficult for many opponents to deal with if they don’t have the volume, footwork or defensive capabilities to keep him at bay.
How it plays out: Despite Hardwick going up in weight, he’ll have a 1” height edge over Fernandes (at least according to what’s listed – I’m not sure I fully buy that though as I think Fernandes will be taller) but he doesn’t have a listed reach so I’m not sure how that stacks up. From a high level perspective, I feel Hardwick has an okay style to beat a guy like Fernandes. What’s the best way to beat a range based kicker? Pressure – crowd the kicker – which Hardwick has been pretty consistent to do. At the same time, Fernandes will be the most dynamic/dangerous guy that Hardwick’s fought in that realm. So, Hardwick is going to have to get after him from the jump and avoid the bonk. But if he can do that, I like him on the feet as his boxing is better, his pacing is more consistent and he has the better cardio (historically).
The wrestling/grappling component:
In addition to Fernandes’ muay thai background, he also reps a BJJ black belt with two of his 10 pro wins coming via submission.
However, he’s not a very good offensive wrestler and not a guy that’s really pursued much in the realm to begin with. It’s been the defensive wrestling that’s given him the most issues and larger contributing factors in both of his pro losses to Sardinha and Diakiese.
He did put up resistance to Diakiese TDs in fairness but still conceded three takedowns and 8.5 minutes of control time.
He’s not incapable of working back to the feet but you’re not often seeing traditional get ups from him where he’s more so looking to use his jiu-jitsu to threaten subs or sweeps to create openings.
His guard will be more aggressive in the first half of fights but when he starts to get tired from wrestling against him, he becomes deader weight on the bottom.
Overall, similar to the striking, opponents have to mind their Ps and Qs with Fernandes on the bottom with his triangle/armbar/omaplata series but if guys know how to posture and follow hips, more competent wrestlers/top players will accrue minutes on him.
In addition to Hardwick’s striking base, he also reps a brown belt in BJJ.
However, he’s not a guy that’s very consistent to wrestle as he does prefer to stand and strike.
He’s mixed TDs in on occasion but a lot of his grappling success has more so come transitionally where he’s shown he can take the back from clinching positions or he’s counter wrestling effectively when opponents are shooting on him, where he then can take the back from there or get on top. When on top, he’s generally strong from those positions and has four wins via submission with supplemental GNP.
Defensively, his last pro loss to Smullen came via wrestling back in 2020 in Bellator where he got outwrestled for the first couple rounds – although that was largely a product of him pulling guillotines and playing from the bottom.
However, since then, he’s prioritized his TDD much more in subsequent fights where he hasn’t been easy to take down and as noted above, he’s counter wrestling effectively to find positions of his own to then produce offense.
He was submitted in his first pro loss back in 2017 but I haven’t seen much since to suggest that he’ll be an easy guy to submit.
Overall, Hardwick’s ground game is a nice supplement to his striking but I can see him having some struggles at the UFC level against more physical opponents with base wrestling backgrounds.
How it plays out: The ground’s a bit tricky to analyze in the sense that neither are very proactive wrestlers and more than competent jiu-jitsu players. Despite Fernandes being the black belt in the equation, I would potentially lean to giving Hardwick more upside just in the sense that he’s shown a better transitional game (where Fernandes is more guard based) and is probably less likely to hang out of the bottom if grounded. But some conjecture there where my opinion isn’t strong.
From a pure analytical/Xs and Os perspective, I like Hardwick to win here as his game just seems more functional in a long term sense and is more conducive to winning rounds. The caveat though is the circumstance. He’s coming in on super short notice and up a weight class which are historically bearish indicators. However, Hardwick is one of these guys that kind of lives in the gym training 5 days a week and twice a day, so I have a bit more optimism for him coming into the spot in decent shape in comparison maybe to other fighters – coupled with that the guy’s shown strong cardio historically whereas that hasn’t always been the case with Fernandes. Ultimately, if Hardwick comes in decent shape, can avoid getting his leg chewed early and/or bonked (definitely live outcomes), I like him to produce more offense over duration and get his hand raised.
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On DraftKings, we have ourselves a good ol’ fashion situation here, as Fernandes is priced down to 6.8k and is the second cheapest fighter on the board.
Given that he’s lined -170 to win, he will rate out as an incredible value, and a clear stand out for the price tag.
Due to the win equity alone, Fernandes can be considered a primary target this week, and it wouldn’t be a poor strategy to load him across all formats. Plus, he’s scored 95 and 115 in his last two wins, showcasing upside in his fighting style.
The counter argument to playing Fernandes is that he’ll be chalky, and potentially the most popular fighter on the entire slate. It will be tougher to be unique if you target him heavily, and so even if he comes through, he may not be a difference maker for you.
Furthermore, I still consider Fernandes pretty boom or bust. He’s relatively dependent on damage, and I think his scores are a bit inflated by A) beating Mohammed Yahya who just basically set the record for most times getting knocked down in two rounds (6 times), and B) knocking Kutateladze down twice.
So yes, when Fernandes knocks you down, he’s going to score well. If he doesn’t, he isn’t likely to produce much offense. He’s not a super high volume fighter and he’s not very active with his takedown game.
This fight is actually -205 to go Over 2.5 rounds, meaning the expectation is for Fernandes to win a decision. I do think he has knockout upside, but if the fight truly goes to decision, he could easily land 70 significant strikes and score 60 DK points in a win.
Perhaps that’s still enough at 6.8k.. but not for sure.
Also, he may just lose. He’s not even 2:1 to win this fight and Hardwick is a respectable competitor who should bring the fight to Fernandes. Hardwick can be hurt on occasion but he’s tough, a solid, flowy boxer, and an OK wrestler. Hardwick could score the upset.
So all in all, I think Fernandes needs to be in strong consideration for your lineups, but is he a must target? I don’t think so. He has room to bust even in a win, and he also could outright lose.
I don’t mind having moderate-heavy exposure here as his win equity is simply unmatched in this range. And he does carry some finishing equity though ITD props aren’t out yet. But I wouldn’t hate the idea of coming in underweight to the field, and focusing a bit more on mid-range builds.
Hardwick at 7.5k should carry ownership as well, as ultimately, we’re guaranteed a winner at 7.5k or below. So if you’re not playing Fernandes, Hardwick should be in strong consideration.
I don’t love the matchup for him, but I think he’s a decent fighter. He can land in volume and he could possibly earn some top time. I do worry that Fernandes will limit engagements though, and so ultimately I wouldn’t project Hardwick to land a ton of shots.
Again, you can argue that any kind of win for Hardwick is worthwhile, considering he should still present strong leverage against Fernandes. And at worst, he’s a solid secondary option.
Plus, we’ve seen Fernandes get taken down and held down. I don’t really think Hardwick will do much on the mat but 1-2 takedowns with some control is possible.
I don’t love this matchup for Hardwick in terms of upside. I think he has a low floor and I doubt his ITD metrics will be too strong. So he’s not a lock and load necessarily, and nor is this matchup. But you should definitely be building in this matchup frequently given the pricing on both sides, and I wouldn’t mind being near the field or a bit overweight on Hardwick given the leverage.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Fernandes by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Sam Patterson vs. Trey Waters
Fight Odds: Patterson -182, Waters +154
Odds to end ITD: -250
DraftKings Salaries: Patterson 8.7k, Waters 7.5k
Weight Class: 170
It is once again Sam Patterson fight week and once again I will be preparing to eat crow if he quickly finishes Trey Waters.
I was fairly confident that Patterson would not beat Danny Barlow back in March, but Patterson rocked Barlow early in the first round and followed up to score a TKO finish.
Patterson is now 13-2-1 professionally at age 29, earning seven wins by submission and another five by TKO. Both of Patterson’s pro losses have come by KO, including his UFC debut where he was knocked out in a minute by Yanal Ashmouz.
Patterson is a grappler by base with a black belt in jiu-jitsu, and he’s super tall and long for the division as well. He stands 6’3” tall with a 78-inch reach, which is pretty long and will give many opponents trouble.
Patterson just isn’t a very processed fighter, which is one of my main issues. I would not consider him a strong wrestler offensively or defensively, and I generally expect him to struggle in both areas.
Patterson did take down both Crosbie and Lainesse without much trouble, and basically immediately submitted both. They were fine performances but I do have to point out that both Crosbie and Lainesse are not UFC level talents.
I do think Patterson can clinch and take down weak competition, but I would expect him to struggle mightily taking down any decent wrestler. Likewise on the defensive side, he’s defending takedowns at 33 percent and I don’t love his sprawl or general balance.
On the regionals, we’ve seen Patterson taken down somewhat often as well. To his credit, he’s worked back up to his feet or reversed position, and even come away with the submission win. He isn’t easy to finish once the fight hits the mat, but I don’t love his first-level takedown defense and I think he will be controlled by good wrestlers in the UFC.
The general length of Patterson will pose problems to many opponents though, especially on the mat as he’ll use his long limbs to attack front chokes. He is a dangerous submission grappler, but largely in the opportunistic sense and not in the sense of physicality, process and control.
On the feet, I think Patterson is a liability defensively. His chin is kind of stuck in the air and we’ve seen him cracked on a number of occasions.
Even outside of his first-minute KO loss in his UFC debut, Patterson was hurt early in his DWCS fights as well, and other times on the regional scene too. I don’t love his durability and I expect him to get knocked out again sometime soon.
Offensively, he’s OK though. His length has really aided that though, a lot of his fights have taken place at 155, where he won’t be as much of a stand out at 170 pounds. He can still throw long strikes, kick a little bit, and pick opponents apart.
He’s only won by decision one time though so I kind of doubt his abilities to fight a purely clean striking fight for three rounds. Perhaps if he’s outsizing his opponent he will be more comfortable. In a war, I don’t think Patterson has the defense or technique to cleanly win rounds.
In general, I don’t love Patterson. I think he’ll continue to pick up some wins ITD with chokes, but I think he’s weak defensively in multiple areas and lacks some general process.
Next he’ll be taking on Trey Waters, who’s earned back-to-back decision wins over Billy Goff and Josh Quinlan, after losing by submission to Gabriel Bonfim on DWCS in 2022.
Waters is massive for 170 pounds, standing 6’5” with a 77-inch reach, and he’s primarily a boxer.
I haven’t been the highest on him in the past, as he’s somewhat one-dimensional, but I do think his pacing has been strong in recent decisions. In those wins, Waters has landed 104 and 96 significant strikes, and absorbed 50 and 116 in return.
While I don’t love that he’s eating 5.61 sig. strikes per minute, it’s worth noting that his striking defense is still 56 percent. Goff fights at a super high pace and really wants to force a brawl, so in that type of matchup, you’re going to get hit a lot. I thought Waters held up pretty well to it though and I don’t mind his round-winning potential.
He’s still not a fantastic striker, and tends to leave his hands down, which opens up some room for concern. We’ve seen him tagged, but rarely hurt, which I suppose is a good sign from a durability standpoint.
Waters isn’t much of a wrestler, and I do think that’s a semi-weak spot for him if there is one. He’s defending takedowns at 85 percent, though that’s mostly come from defending 7/8 takedowns against Quinlan.
We have seen him taken down once in each tracked fight though, and he has some poor tendencies. I don’t love his balance, and he defends with a guillotine choke too much which got him Von Flue’d by Bonfim on DWCS. However, he has shown a decent scramble game, and sometimes will end up on top of opponents when they try to get him down.
Waters being absolutely massive should also help aid him in defense. I don’t think he’s going to be an easy guy to grind out, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see him taken down 1-2 times on average and potentially threatened by a strong wrestler.
Really, Waters will likely need stand-up fights to win at the UFC level, but there is some hope he’ll continue to get them, given his size, cardio and takedown rate on paper.
In those stand-up fights, he throws at a decent enough pace to stay competitive in rounds, and he should be much bigger than the majority of his opponents. He packs some power too and will carry some KO ability, but I wouldn’t rate him as a devastating puncher overall.
In this matchup, there’s definitely a chance Patterson can find an early finish, as that’s how his style is set up to succeed. That could come from an early club-and-sub, or simply a takedown and opportunistic transition. Or I could see him hurting Waters and knocking him out, just because Waters keeps his hands down.
With that said, Waters is the more processed fighter and I do like his chances for the upset. He was lined at +180 to win last week which was an easy click for me, but now that line has come down a significant amount.
Not only does Waters project as the better round winner here, but he’s massive, which I do think plays a role. Patterson is very much used to being the bigger man, and he hasn’t even succeeded in being a dominant physical force in those kind of matchups. Ashmouz knocked him dead who is 5’9” tall.
Waters is 6’5” and a better distance boxer than Patterson. While both men keep their hands down, and therefore either man could get hurt, I think Waters has more the better durability of the two. Patterson may hit harder and is likely the better kicker.
I would still favor Waters over three rounds in a kickboxing fight as he’s going to land a lot of head strikes, and Patterson has not proven he can keep up with any kind of pacing. I wouldn’t be surprised if Waters hurt Patterson along the way, though again, Patteron has some damage upside himself.
I think both men can probably take each other down, though Patterson is surely the better submission grappler. I expect he’ll try to clinch sooner than later if he’s not winning distance exchanges, and try to wrestle. He could land a takedown or two, but his control sucks, so he’d need to jump on a neck and finish the fight for me to be confident he’d win on the mat.
Waters can probably take Patterson down but I wouldn’t want him to, as Patterson could threaten from his back.
Essentially, Patterson is a dangerous early finisher and will carry that path to victory once again in this matchup. On paper, I just do not see it as an easy path for him to KO Waters (who’s never been KOd), or take him down with any consistency.
So I’m going to take Waters to survive some hectic, early exchanges, and outbox Patterson over the duration, potentially finishing him along the way.
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On DraftKings, this feels like a really strong fight to target and I’d label it among my favorites on the slate.
Not only is the fight -250 to end inside the distance, but Patterson profiles as a kill or be killed type to me. If he wins, I think it’s likely to come early. And I’m highly skeptical that if he loses, he can survive punishment.
Patterson is priced at 8.7k and is the better play of the two in terms of chances of hitting a ceiling. He’s +115 to win ITD and I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s chalk, coming off three wins in a row of 107, 101 and 98.
While I don’t love Patterson as a fighter, I’m willing to play into the upside of the matchup as a bit. Sure, I might be underweight to the field if he’s outright chalk, but I wouldn’t blame you for being on him as much as the field.
Conversely, Waters is a bit more risky as he may only win an extended fight with striking, but still at 7.5k, that’s a cheap enough price for me to consider. And at best, Waters can win by knockout.
Waters is +215 to win ITD which is pretty strong, and I’m hoping he’s not chalk, coming off wins of 78 and 76. Again, that’s the risk, and if he only scores 10x ish, so be it.
But we may see some value on the price tag compared to his ML, plus leverage against Patterson, plus real knockout upside. I like Waters and probably more than the field this week, and I consider him a strong salary saver.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Waters by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Low)
Brad Tavares vs. Robert Bryczek
Fight Odds: Tavares -230, Bryczek +193
Odds to end ITD: +135
DraftKings Salaries: Tavares 9.1k, Bryczek 7.1k
Weight Class: 185
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a battle in the middleweight division here between two guys who I do not trust in aging UFC veteran Brad Tavares and Polish fighter Robert Bryczek who had a terrible UFC debut.
Tavares is mostly a striker. I don’t like his volume as he only lands 3.42 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.28 in return. However, he is somewhat skillful and does have a decent amount of power. He is capable of beating below-average strikers in general. He has some nice low kicks, but I do think he is a bit vulnerable to inside boxing exchanges. He is coming off a 29-28 decision win over Gerald Meerschaert where he only outlanded Meerschaert 47-38 in significant strikes and lost round three. I didn’t think Tavares looked great in that matchup.
Tavares doesn’t really wrestle offensively . He only lands 0.71 takedowns per 15 minutes. He has never even won by submission in his UFC career.
Tavares generally has good takedown defense though and defends takedowns at 81 percent. So he generally can sprawl and brawl and beat grappling dependent fighters like Omari Akhmedov, ACJ, Chris Weidman, and Gerald Meerschaert which were some of his more recent wins.
Tavares will be taking on Robert Bryczek. Bryczek is a Polish fighter who generally has fought shitty competition in Europe. He is 17-6 professionally with 11 wins coming by knockout. He made his UFC debut a year and a half ago against Igor Potieria and looked pretty terrible. He lost a unanimous striking based decision and was outlanded 67-32 in significant strikes.
Bryczek is generally a striker. Like Tavares, he is compact. He has some okay hands on the inside and is pretty dangerous early. He is an explosive guy. He is definitely capable of knocking guys out early in fights and most of his wins in recent years have come by knockout early.
The issue is I don’t think Bryczek is all that great other than his early danger. I haven’t really seen him wrestle offensively and he doesn’t strike me as a great round winning striker. He has lost a couple of striking based decisions now and I just don’t really trust him to win striking based decisions unless his power shows up.
I really just see Bryczek as a dangerous guy early and his best path to winning in the UFC will be if he gets a quick knockout. He has only been knocked out once in his career.
As far as this matchup goes, I do lean Tavares slightly. I think Tavares is more experienced and more proven as a round winning striker. If this goes 15 minutes, I think Tavares will probably land more leg kicks and probably get ahead on the scorecards.
The issue is Tavares has looked kind of bad lately and he is low volume himself. Tavares is also chinny and has been knocked out a couple of times in the last two years. I do think Bryczek could crack Tavares and knock him out or steal a round. So Bryczek does have a realistic knockout path to victory. I also think Bryczek is capable of winning a decision as well just because Tavares is low volume, and Bryczek has some power that could give him a moment or two. Bryczek may have the better hands in the pocket in boxing range as well.
I still don’t see Bryczek winning unless his power shows up though and I don’t like to rely on that. So Tavares is my pick. This is a sketchy fight though and I don’t like the pace of the matchup either.
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On DraftKings, Tavares will be your typical, super contrarian target at 9.1k.
It’s a joke every time I write him up because sure, he has some KO upside on paper. He never achieves it, and he never scores well on DraftKings.
In his UFC wins, Tavares has scored 51, 58, 75, 56, 81, 73, 57, 54, 57, and so and so on. He has a couple of 100 point wins but those came in 2012 and 2011…
Essentially, Tavares needs a quick KO or he will bust. He is only +300 to win ITD which is a pretty poor mark for the price tag.
As usual, I’m expecting Tavares to be 15 percent owned or less, and he could potentially be less than 10 percent owned. Bryczek isn’t particularly good so maybe Tavares can crack him.
If you want to sprinkle Tavares as a contrarian target, go for it, but he hasn’t accrued a tournament winning score in 13 years so it’s extremely difficult for me to ever click his name.
Bryczek is the more appealing option at 7.1k though I’m not a fan of him either.
He doesn’t really carry wrestling equity and the pace of the matchup will be slow. He needs an early knockout as well.
Tavares should simply be the better fighter which is why he’s a solid favorite in the matchup, but he can be hurt occasionally. Bryczek is also +300 to win ITD which shows some finishing upside for the price.
Tavares has just faced way better competition so the only reason this would come to fruition is due to general variance, which is tough to bet on.
My guess is Bryczek will also be very low owned, so that’s the only real positive here. I don’t mind a sprinkle of him for contrarian upside in this matchup, at this price. He’ll carry leverage against other fighters in this bottom tier.
But I don’t think he’s winning or winning by KO, and would only label him a low-end target who benefits by helping you be different.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Tavares by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Andreas Gustafsson vs. Rinat Fakhretdinov
Fight Odds: Gustafsson -110, Fakhretdinov -106
Odds to end ITD: +150
DraftKings Salaries: Gustafsson 8.3k, Fakhretdinov 7.9k
Weight Class: 170
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
I am really excited for this fight between Andreas Gustafsson and Rinat Fakhretdinov.
I mostly say that because I was super impressed with Gustafsson in his UFC debut against Khaos Williams. Gustafsson beat the breaks off of Williams and landed 98 significant strikes and 8 takedowns in 15 minutes. Gustafsson closed the distance right away and just beat Williams up in the clinch and on the inside. It was a great performance by Gustafsson.
Gustafsson won by knockout on the Contender Series back in August to book his ticket to the UFC. He is a Swedish fighter and is 12-2 professionally. He comes from a Greco-Roman wrestling background.
This guy is a bit of a spaz. He aggressively clinches up all of his opponents and then just kind of goes from there. He is a big and physical guy. In the clinch he likes to just land inside strikes like punches, elbows, and knees and he just gives his opponents no room to operate. He is capable of hurting opponents on the inside and just likes to make it ugly. You saw that in the Williams fight.
Gustafsson will also go for takedowns in the clinch and he can take down weak grapplers. As with most Greco guys, I don’t think his actual takedowns are good. I don’t think his top control is great either. He is also not a talented submission grappler. I think he can outgrapple weak grapplers but as he gets going in the UFC, I think he will struggle more and more to beat guys with offensive wrestling control. I have seen him taken down but he does seem to work up somewhat well.
I like the fact that Gustafsson is aggressive and will try really hard to clinch and land inside strikes. I think he can get wins in the UFC with that style and pace. I think he is moderately dangerous. If he can keep up that pace and aggression, he will be a problem for plenty of guys in the UFC.
My issue is that Gustafsson’s defense is not great, especially at range. I have seen him teed off on and hurt at range. He has never been finished and seems tough, but I definitely think he will get knocked out at some point at this level. Still though, his pace and aggression is a great weapon.
Gustafsson will be taking on Rinat Fakhretdinov. Fakhretdinov is primarily a wrestler. He lands 3.95 takedowns per 15 minutes and is fully capable of landing volume takedowns, riding out top position and dominating opponents. He landed 7 takedowns against Brytan Battle and consolidated 14:11 of control which was impressive. I consider Fakhretdinov a very capable wrestler and he will continue to rack up UFC wins because of it. He dominated his first three UFC fights.
Fakhretdinov finally faced adversity against Zaleski though. He only landed 1/9 takedowns. He had a lot of early success and actually got the better of the striking at times. Fakhretdinov is still actually pretty powerful with his hands early in fights. However, he eventually slowed down and got beat up later in the fight.
That fight just showed me that Fakhretdinov is going to struggle and be in more competitive fights if he isn’t in top position where he thrives and is most comfortable. You also saw that happen in his most recent win against Carlos Leal in a fight most people thought Leal won. Fakhretdinov struggled to get top position and was generally getting hit on the feet.
Fakhretdinov is likely to slow down if people can stop some takedowns, get back to their feet, and make him work. Many fighters in this division will probably just get taken down easily and dominated by Fakhretdinov, but anyone with solid defensive wrestling can test him.
Gustafsson can probably give Fakhretdinov issues for that very reason as Gustafsson comes from a wrestling background and looks like a guy who will be hard to control. I do think Fakhretdinov can land some takedowns here and maybe get mild control. However, I don’t think Fakhretdinov will dominate on the mat here and we will get stretches of this fight where Fakhretdinov is not in total control in top position.
I think these guys will strike and that Gustafsson will go after Fakhretdinov and look to get in the inside and land clinch strikes. I honestly favor Gustafsson in those exchanges. I think his gas tank is better and he is just more comfortable and lethal in an inside striking game. So I think Gustafsson can land the better shots and land more damage and either get a finish or just win on the scorecards by landing more damage.
So I am going to go with Gustafsson here. I just think he will push a pace, minimize the grappling, and land the more damaging inside strikes.
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On DraftKings, this is one of my favorite fights on the board and among my most anticipated fights on the slate to watch.
Gustafsson was heavily on my radar for his UFC debut, and he came through in flying colors, landing eight takedowns and 151 total strikes for 137 DraftKings points.
I have to admit, when we have a grinder of this nature who tells the world his game plan is to go “full R*tard”, it gets my juices flowing. And he’s now proven that he’s capable of doing exactly that.
In some matchups, Gustafsson will be an absolute smash. He’ll clinch maul opponents, land takedowns, and smash them on the canvas for a TKO stoppage. He’ll carry incredible upside.
This matchup is more difficult to read, as Fakhretdinov is clearly going to be the best wrestler Gustafsson will ever have faced, and a big step up from that of Khaos Williams who Gustafsson just beat.
In some ways, you can look at this matchup as Fakhretdinov being the superior wrestler, the superior distance striker, and having faced the better level of competition. Fakhretdinov simply might just win the fight.
I personally think it will come down to what range the fight takes place. If Fakhretdinov can wrestle, shrug off Gustafsson’s clinch attempts, and hold up for 15 minutes, he’ll win. If he starts to get tired, Gustafsson will start to wear him down and clinch maul him like everyone else.
So I still think if Gustafsson wins, he carries real upside. I am worried that this matchup is not as strong for him on paper and I think there’s more risk in targeting him at 8.3k because of it.
There’s no way I’m getting away from Gustafsson though. We’ve seen Fakhretdinov tire out multiple times in extended fights and look shaky down the stretch. He’s been taken down and hurt before. I could see Gustafsson winning and topping 100 points again, even in a decision, and he also carries some finishing equity at +290 ITD.
I worry that Gustafsson will now be chalk, coming off that last performance, but maybe it’s justified. You don’t have to come in heavy this week given the potentially difficult matchup, but I think he’s a strong secondary target at worst, and more likely still a semi-priority with real tournament winning upside in the mid-range.
Fakhretdinov at 7.9k is a really strong target as well.
Especially if he’s significantly lower owned than Gustafsson, he’ll be a great leverage target who I’d want a lot of exposure to as well.
The primary reason is that Gustafsson still doesn’t carry much defense. He’ll get hit a lot at range, and Fakhretdinov probably will take him down a bunch if he wins.
We’ve seen Fakhretdinov land 5+ takedowns in three of five UFC wins, and he’s scored 90 or more points in all five wins, topping out at 130 multiple times himself.
It may not come ITD as he’s only +340, but I think he’ll have to produce a lot of offense to win, probably via takedowns, and I think there’s a great chance he exceeds value and contends for the optimal lineup.
I wouldn’t even be opposed to leaning toward Fakhretdinov outright, if you have a strong opinion on the matchup, or simply splitting your action here. But in my mind, this is among the better fights to target on the slate at cost, and I’d like moderate exposure or more to both sides.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Gustafsson by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Shauna Bannon vs. Sam Hughes
Fight Odds: Hughes -331, Bannon +270
Odds to end ITD: +300
DraftKings Salaries: Hughes 9.2k, Bannon 7k
Weight Class: 115
We have a lower-level women’s strawweight affair between Shauna Bannon and Sam Hughes.
It says a lot about Bannon that she’s a heavy underdog to Hughes, who has been a perennial underdog throughout most of her UFC career.
But to her credit, Hughes has found a style that works, which is fighting with aggression, physicality and cardio. And using some wrestling to outwork girls over the duration.
Primarily, that’s where Hughes’ success has come – on the mat. She’s landing 1.08 takedowns per 15 minutes but in her wins, she’s landed 3, 0, 1, 4 and 2 takedowns.
Again, it’s nothing to write home about but for added context, one of those wins came against Jacqueline Amorim who is a legit submission grappler, and Hughes had to fend off early ground attacks and survive. That victory was more about outlasting Amorim than purely outwrestling her.
Additionally, Hughes is pretty good in the clinch and it ties into her aggressive style. She wants to get in your face and grind you down.
At range, she’s very likely to be the worse technical striker and it shows up in her metrics, as she’s landing 4.41 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 4.57 per minute. She often starts slow and is falling behind in exchanges, but as time goes on, she tends to have the cardio edge and can take over once opponents tire out.
Next she’ll be fighting Shauna Bannon, who is a pretty bottom-tier fighter in this division and is lucky to be holding a winning 2-1 record in the UFC.
Bannon lost a clean decision to Bruna Brasil in her UFC debut, and then barely held on for a split decision over Alice Ardelean. Most recently, she got rocked by Puja Tomar but subbed her from her back with an armbar.
Bannon is mostly going to excel at kicking range, and her kicks are her best weapons. I have seen her fire off long straight hands, but her boxing is definitely a secondary skill set to her kicking.
This type of style really doesn’t work well at the highest levels. Unless you’re able to control distance super easily, these fighters fall apart defensively on the inside. And it’s pretty clear her offensive capabilities are limited as she could not cut off the cage or land many effective strikes in her debut.
Bannon just doesn’t strike me as a fighter who will have much success outside of kicking range, and I don’t see her beating good competition. She’s an OK athlete but not a great one.
She’ll look to clinch a lot when opponents get on the inside, but her clinch game isn’t very good. Her wrestling isn’t horrible but I don’t think she can easily take down UFC-level opponents. She has yet to land a takedown in the UFC and is defending at 42 percent, so that’s a really poor sign but to be fair, she did lock up the one submission.
I’ve seen her mix it up on the mat on the regionals as well, and she’ll fish for triangles from top and bottom. Perhaps she’s well trained as a submission grappler but she doesn’t look very dangerous to me. I’d only bet on her to beat very weak competition on the mat, but she might have enough knowledge to survive when taken down.
It’s just a lack of physicality/athleticism/power combination with a weird fighting style. She rates out as a fine round winner at kicking distance, but nothing more.
I do think you can make the argument for Bannon winning this fight at distance. She’s landing 4.77 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 3.88 per minute, but again with a 44 percent defensive rate.
Hughes might honestly be the better boxer, but Bannon is going to have success at longer ranges. When the fight starts, I would not be surprised if Bannon got off to an early lead, and simply kept Hughes at bay with her kicks.
Once Hughes closes the distance, it should be her fight to win. She’s the more effective boxer on the inside, the more effective clinch grinder, and the more effective wrestler.
Given Bannon’s weak takedown rate, Hughes will project to land a few takedowns in this fight. I could easily see her landing 2-4 over 15 minutes, and racking up several minutes of ground control.
I am less confident in what she will do with that control though. Bannon could be the better submission grappler outright, and she could threaten Hughes. This is low-level WMMA so a random guard sub is on the table again.
Hughes has done well to survive on the mat though, and if she ends up on top of Bannon, I do think she can land ground-and-pound and take rounds on the scorecards.
This still has the makings of a competitive fight. Hughes isn’t a pullaway striker and still gets hit more often than she lands. Each of her last two decisions have been super close splits, and I would be zero percent surprised to see Bannon pick up a round.
I do favor the wrestling of Hughes, and I’m just not a fan of Bannon’s game in general, so I’ll lean toward Hughes earning enough top control to get her hand raised. But I’m a little nervous with her being a sizable favorite in this spot as she’s really only cruised to a win one time in 10 UFC performances…
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On DraftKings, Hughes is the preferred target but at 9.2k, I don’t consider her a priority.
We really want to target Hughes as a dog, where she has the wrestling path and can sneak her way into the 90 point range. We’ve seen her crush before and score 121 DK points, but that came from an absolute demolition over Elise Reed and a TKO stoppage.
In this fight, Hughes is only +350 to win ITD and the fight is -400 to go the distance overall.
In her decision wins, Hughes has only scored 97, 81, 83, and 92. Those are really strong scores when you can get her at 7.5k. At 9.2k, it’s less exciting to me.
I do think Hughes has a fair floor here given her wrestling equity, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see her reach 90 points or even push into the low 90s. But without wrestling success, Hughes won’t carry any ceiling at all so it’s still a real risk.
I don’t hate Hughes… but I do think it’s reasonable to prioritize some other finishing options in this range, or even prioritize fighters who are much cheaper and in higher paced matchups.
Hughes is a solid floor option but she’s just not a guarantee for ceiling, in what could still be a sneakily competitive fight.
Bannon at 7k doesn’t interest me a whole lot.
Now that we have the value in Fernandes, taking a chance on a dog like Bannon who might score 60 in a split decision just seems gross.
Bannon put up 76 in her decision win and 95 in her submission win, but she’s only +900 to win ITD here and doesn’t have much wrestling equity.
I am expecting Bannon to land a fair number of strikes but it’s also possible she gets held down. She just isn’t the most fantasy friendly fighter and she’s still a huge dog.
I don’t hate Bannon for her price and I do think she could survive 15 minutes, or potentially win a close decision. I highly doubt she has fantasy upside unless she randomly locks up another guard armbar, but I’m not betting on that this week.
I consider Bannon a very low end target who’s benefited by her likelihood of fighting for 15 minutes.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Hughes by Decision (Confidence=Medium)