UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo (5/7/25)
Note: Please read the full analysis, that is much more important than who I pick to win. The confidence relates to my pick to win, not the path to victory. Picks are NOT bets. Matchup breakdowns are written by Brett unless otherwise noted, and all DraftKings analysis is written by Brett. Both Technical Tim and Luke Lampe will also contribute to matchup breakdowns.
MAIN CARD
Cory Sandhagen vs. Deiveson Figueiredo
Fight Odds: Sandhagen -555, Figueiredo +406
Odds to Finish: +155
DraftKings Salaries: Sandhagen 9.4k, Figueiredo 6.8k
Weight Class: 135
We have a high-level matchup in the bantamweight division between former title challenger Cory Sandhagen, and former flyweight champion Deiveson Figueiredo.
I wasn’t necessarily expecting Figueiredo to achieve success once he moved up from flyweight in 2023, but he’s had a solid run, and has won three of his first four matchups in the bantamweight division.
It’s just that Figueiredo always fought with a flawed style in my mind, and a move up weight was never going to change that. Except that now he’d be competing against bigger and stronger athletes, and much better wrestlers.
Figueiredo hasn’t fought many of those in his initial run to be fair. He beat Rob Font and Marlon Vera over three rounds and submitted Cody Garbrandt along the lines as well. But he’s still failing to achieve even 50 significant strikes landed and is largely going to be dependent on damage to have success.
Most recently, Figgy fought Petr Yan in the main event and was completely outclassed. Yan outstruck him 121 to 53 over five rounds and took a 50-45 unanimous decision.
Now he’ll face Cory Sandhagen, who is certainly not the most dangerous fighter in the division, but someone who is very skilled, well-rounded and consistent.
Sandhagen has always struggled to reach the pinnacle because he’s simply not the greatest athlete. In that, he’s less physical than others, and less powerful. His knockdowns come few and far between, and he’s also unable to beat the top tier with wrestling.
So against an opponent like Figueiredo, I could see Sandhagen having some occasional troubles. Figgy still hits really hard and won’t be easy to take down and hold down. But Sandhagen is far more consistent, and throws volume at a far higher rate, and he should be the far superior minute winner of the two.
Sandhagen is going to be six inches taller than Figueiredo with a couple extra inches of reach, and he fights with an evasive style that already makes him difficult to catch. He lands 5.02 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 3.46 per minute with a 56 percent defensive rate. Those numbers are far superior to Figueiredo’s for context – who lands 2.91 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 3.55 per minute with a 49 percent defensive rate – kind of pathetic to be honest.
Sandhagen has only been knocked down once in the UFC in 14 fights and that was also by Petr Yan, who Sandhagen lost the title to in a more competitive, albeit clear decision.
MMA math isn’t exact, obviously, but it’s worth noting that Sandhagen was able to land 169 significant strikes against Yan over five rounds, while Figgy only landed 53.
The dynamic is just clear to me, that on the feet, Sandhagen will be throwing a lot more, and landing a lot more. He’ll be moving on his feet, evading, throwing kicks and ducking out of range. Figgy will be swinging wildly for big shots and he won’t be able to keep up with Sandhagen’s pacing.
It’s still possible he can hurt Sandhagen, but Sandhagen is very tough and without those big moments, I don’t think Figueiredo can win rounds at a high pace.
As far as the wrestling side, Figueiredo has actually been leaning on that recently, and has landed nine takedowns over his past four fights. Sandhagen only defends at 63 percent and Figgy can most likely get in on his hips and take him down once or twice.
But Sandhagen is a pretty comfortable grappler and scrambler, and he is not easy to hold down. Unlike Umar Nurmagomedov, Figureido doesn’t have that elite back-taking and control ability. Figueiredo generally needs guillotines or instant subs to really make his ground attack work.
Again, it’s possible, but I think the most likely outcome by far is Sandhagen limiting Figueiredo’s wrestling, and scrambling up pretty quickly if he gets taken down once or twice.
Conversely, Sandhagen has also been wrestling a bit as of late, including a seven takedown performance against Font. Figgy can be taken down too and only defends at 60 percent, but I don’t see him being held down either.
I don’t really think that will be a priority for Sandhagen and it’s not a path to victory I really trust. Even if he lands a couple of takedowns, I think Figueiredo can neutralize him there as well. So I ultimately expect this fight to take place on the feet and the winner of the striking will win the fight.
In that, I have to take Sandhagen. He’s just a far more comfortable distance striker, who can land in volume, and he’s better defensively as well. His cardio is strong. The betting line might be a bit too wide here just because striking is high-variance and Figgy can make rounds competitive with a moment or two, or simply land a big shot that puts Sandhagen down. Figueiredo has been finished a couple of times himself but I don’t give Sandhagen tremendous knockout equity
The decision equity should lie pretty moderately in favor of Sandhagen and him taking a decision feels like the clear most likely outcome.
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On DraftKings, both fighters feel like pretty safe targets at their respective price points, but I’m less sure if they’re elite tournament targets.
Sandhagen is priced up to 9.4k which is expensive and my worry is that he just lacks the finishing and wrestling equity to reach a massive ceiling.
His volume should be there though, and 120-140 sig. strikes are very reasonably in play over five rounds. If he lands 140, that would equate to 86 points in a decision, so he’s still going to need to score more elsewhere.
Sandhagen is only +230 to win ITD which is kind of concerning and given the fight is -190 to go the distance, I am worried that he simply does not find a kill shot. He will have mild knockout equity but not a ton of it in my mind.
The wrestling is just so uncertain too.. He’s averaging 1.19 takedowns per 15 minutes and 1-2 takedowns feels pretty reasonable. But even that doesn’t guarantee him 100 points in a win and 0 takedowns is clearly in play as well.
Sandhagen has some big, recent wins, but they largely came with tons of wrestling and control, and this is simply a different matchup. I do not feel at all confident he can surpass 100 points in this matchup at a high clip.
That’s honestly going to take me off Sandhagen a bit in tournaments, as I do expect him to be fairly chalky. This isn’t the best top range in the world though, and Sandhagen does provide a lot of safety. He can reach a ceiling. He’s not a bad play.
But on a single fight expectation I’m just not sure Sandhagen crosses 100 points and if he does project to be high owned, it wouldn’t be a bad spot to come in underweight or choose to pivot if you’re trying to be a bit unique.
Figueiredo at 6.8k is viable as well, but primarily for his price tag. He’s so cheap that he’ll become punt viable in both cash games and tournaments, in a fight that’s projected to go five rounds.
Plus, he’ll still carry some wrestling and finishing equity. He is only +500 to win ITD which makes sense given he’s a huge dog, but I wouldn’t be shocked if a couple rounds were close just by him swinging big.
It’s also not a spot I feel great about Figueiredo producing a lot of offense, nor winning, so he’s only a secondary target at best in tournaments. I don’t think it’s a terrible idea to fade the main event more than usual this week, and/or choose to pivot to many fighters in the surrounding tier.
At the same time, I am not a huge fan of this bottom range and I don’t see many strong pivots off Figueiredo. He’ll end up in some of my lineups by default, as I will need to occasionally save the salary. This isn’t a spot I’d be excited to be overweight on though.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Sandhagen by Decision (Confidence=Medium-High)
Reinier de Ridder vs. Bo Nickal
Fight Odds: Nickal -344, de Ridder +274
Odds to Finish: -170
DraftKings Salaries: Nickal 9.1k, de Ridder 7.1k
Weight Class: 185
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
Bo Nickal will be getting a step up in competition here and an interesting style matchup when he takes on Reinier de Ridder this weekend.
Nickal is one of the best American Collegiate wrestlers of his generation. Nickal is now 4-0 in the UFC but he has fought poor competition in Jamie Pickett, Val Woodburn, Cody Brundage, and Paul Craig. He did exactly what he needed to do against those first three fights though and finished all of them relatively quickly.
Pretty much all you need to know about Nickal is that he was a dominant collegiate wrestler. He took second in the NCAA finals his freshman year and then won gold in his sophomore, junior, and senior years. He won the hodge trophy his Senior year which is essentially the equivalent of the Heisman trophy and given to the nation’s best collegiate wrestler. He finished his collegiate career with a ridiculous 120-3 record. Only a handful of wrestlers in the history of collegiate wrestling have a resume like that.
Nickal then attempted to make the Olympic team but was stuck in a bracket with guys like David Taylor who were simply better than him. So Nickal couldn’t make the Olympic team in 2020. Taylor ended up winning the Olympics so there is no shame in that loss.
After failing to qualify for the Olympics, Nickal then made the transition to MMA. He is 7-0 professionally with six of his seven wins coming by finish, and generally in the first round.
Nickal’s last fight against Paul Craig went the full 15 minutes and Nickal decided to strike for the entire fight. Neither man even attempted a takedown. Nickal got a ton of crap for his performance against Craig. People were claiming he was overrated because of that fight.
I am actually going to defend Nickal for that performance. He was fighting a guy in Craig who is notoriously dangerous with guard submissions. So Nickal decided to strike, which isn’t even his bread and butter. How is Nickal overrated because he decided to strike? His wrestling is what will ultimately decide if he is going to do anything in this division which he didn’t even use in that fight. If Nickal tried to wrestle and got shut down then sure calling him overrated would be justified.
Did Nickal’s striking look great? No. Will he outstrike guys like Du Plessis and Strickland? No. However, Nickal stayed composed for 15 minutes and won all three rounds. It was a bit ugly and he only outlanded Craig 54-47 in significant strikes. However, who even cares? Nickal’s striking is not going to determine his fate in this division. His grappling will.
Nickal will surely try to wrestle almost everyone else in this weight class. If anything, I thought Nickal being able to mildly strike against Craig was a good thing. If he fights a good striker, sure he won’t win the striking exchanges but he can probably defend himself and not immediately collapse.
It is hard to know what Nickal actually is at this point. I honestly don’t know if he can just outgrapple this entire division.
However, I actually really liked his performance against Cody Brundage. He grappled well into the second round and showed no signs of slowing down. He was also known to have good cardio in pure wrestling matches too. I personally think Nickal is going to eventually fight for a title one day, but he is still pretty untested and hasn’t been put through adversity. Still though, how many guys will actually stop his wrestling game though? Probably not many, so that alone may carry him to a title shot.
I mean we just saw the long reigning champion Israel Adesanya get sloppily submitted by Dricus Du Plessis. Would any of us really be that surprised if Nickal could take down and submit Adesanya? I wouldn’t be.
There still are question marks related to Nickal though. He is still green and needs development. I also guess his cardio is fine given he is a lifelong wrestler and always pushed a hard pace in that sport. However, we haven’t seen him fight through much adversity and his durability is also a question mark.
What I do know is Nickal can wrestle his ass off and is a better pure wrestler than anyone in this division except maybe Chimaev. Nickal is definitely capable of landing takedowns against anyone in this division. He also objectively looks skilled at jiu-jitsu as well, and has been competing in grappling matches vs good guys. So I think his BJJ game will be fine too. He has actually rolled with some world class grapplers in BJJ competitions and was not submitted which is good. He was submitted by Gordon Ryan but Ryan is the best no-gi grappler of all-time so there is no shame in that.
I still think the jury is out on Nickal to a degree. However, I am pretty confident he can outgrapple at least 80 percent of this division. What he can do to the top guys is still to be determined and that is moreso what I will be interested in seeing going forward.
Nickal will be taking on Reinier de Ridder. De Ridder is 19-2 professionally and he was the Middleweight and Light Heavyweight champion in One FC, a pretty solid MMA organization. His two losses both came to the undefeated Anatoly Malykhin where de Ridder was finished in both fights and struggled with the physicality of Malykhin.
De Ridder then made his UFC debut and defeated Gerald Meerschaert in a back-and-forth war. He then quickly submitted Kevin Holland.
De Ridder is a grappler through and through. He comes from a grappling background and has a solid amount of experience on the BJJ circuit. He has fought advanced guys like Andre Galvao in BJJ matches.
I think de Ridder is alright. He isn’t a great wrestler, but he is tenacious and is always closing distance, looking to get takedowns, and ride the back. He has a decent top game and is a fine submission grappler. He can threaten on the back, and 14 of his 19 wins have come by submission. He will also lock in body triangles. Overall, I do like the process of de Ridder and against a certain level of competition, he should rack up a ton of wins.
However, I still just have concerns with de Ridder. He isn’t super athletic. Furthermore, I don’t think his actual wrestling is great. He just relies on tenacity. That is fine and will work against many guys but eventually he will get shut down like he was against Malykhin. I also don’t think his striking is great either.
I also have seen De Ridder take sloppy shots and nearly get guillotined. He has also been put on his back and beaten up a bit in a couple of fights. Meerschaert also got on top and de Ridder couldn’t get up.
I just feel like it is hard for me to pick de Ridder to beat Nickal. Nickal definitely has some question marks and there may be some areas where de Ridder is better than Nickal. De Ridder could maybe have some success standing.
However, De Ridder almost only wins fights with grappling and I would be pretty shocked if he outwrestled Nickal. High level guys like Nickal are so difficult to take and hold down and I don’t think people understand the levels here. I just hate for de Ridder that grappling via takedowns and control are his main paths to winning fights, and that is likely completely off the table for him against Nickal. It is just a tough style fight for de Ridder.
On the other hand, I absolutely think Nickal can take and hold down de Ridder. De Ridder’s get-ups look poor and I could see Nickal having ground-and-pound success.
De Ridder is a seriously good submission grappler though and that’s the main concern I have for Nickal. Nickal may be able to get takedowns but will it lead to easy dominance or a submission? It could but there may be some neutralization that occurs. Perhaps de Ridder can threaten with submissions but I would be pretty surprised if he submitted Nickal. Furthermore, if Nickal decides to strike again, this fight will be a shitshow. So there are ways for this fight to at least be goofy for Nickal.
Will Nickal try to strike? I am not sure. Can Nickal easily finish de Ridder on the mat? I am not sure. However, Nickal is clearly the better wrestler on paper and I think takedowns and control are definitely there for him. I doubt takedowns and control are there for de Ridder. So that is going to make me pick Nickal in this matchup.
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On DraftKings, this is one of the more intriguing matchups on the slate.
Like Tim, I really couldn’t care less about Nickal striking against Craig. I expected him to do that because taking down Craig really does nothing for him, and it was a perfect matchup for him to get in some striking minutes. He’ll never be a championship level striker, but he at least showed he can point fight and throw leg kicks, so he’s developing some underrated minute winning tools in my opinion. He just needs enough to be able to survive there.
He also got a ton of shit for it publicly, even though he thinks it was his most impressive win to date. So I think the most interesting aspect here is that Nickal’s game plan is totally up in the air. I really don’t know what he’s going to do this weekend.
You can argue that de Ridder, like Craig, is most skilled on the mat. You can argue it’s another good matchup for Nickal to try and strike some. If I had to guess though, I think Nickal will wrestle.
My gut feeling is that de Ridder, coming off a couple of bigger wins in the promotion, is viewed as a legit enough prospect by most that if Nickal takes him down and smashes him, people will find that impressive, as opposed to some of his previous opponents like Cody Brudnage.
I still don’t think Nickal is a lock to do that successfully, but I am sure Nickal can take him down. Even if he doesn’t submit de Ridder quickly, de Ridder has shown some defensive flaws on the mat where a grinding, control based wrestler like Nickal could wear him out completely and still find a mid-round TKO finish.
That’s the outcome I lean toward. I think Nickal is highly risky in the sense that you need him to grapple from a fantasy perspective. I have no idea what he wants to do. But he’s coming off his worst pro win from a scoring standpoint, and I think the public might be off of him to some degree with that 52 point score. He’s also the cheapest he’s ever been at 9.1k, so this honestly feels like a great bounce back spot.
The top tier isn’t strong enough to where I’m sure Nickal won’t be chalk. He could be chalk. He’s still -130 to win ITD which gives him a lot of respect and he scored 100, 128 and 109 in his other wins. He probably will be popularish. And he will still carry that bust risk if he chooses to strike in an extended fight, or simply does not finish the fight.
But man, you’re getting an elite wrestler here at 9.1k who sets up pretty damn well in a win condition if he does choose to wrestle. He could easily land 2-4 takedowns, earn 5+ minutes of control, and land a ton of ground strikes. I think a finish could materialize as well.
I was not as high on Nickal entering the tape and the week but the more I think about it, the more I am willing to be on Nickal this week. He’s simply far cheaper than recent spots, and potentially, less owned as well. There are boom/bust elements but I’m willing to buy into the boom side enough at this price tag.
De Ridder at 7.1k doesn’t interest me a whole lot.
Again, I had some higher opinions on him coming into the week, but watching Nickal fight Craig again and just putting my thoughts on paper, what can de Ridder really do here?
Nickal was fighting defensively sound enough against Craig that I just don’t think de Ridder has much upside on the feet. He could win, sure, but it feels like a bigger stretch to assume he can knock Nickal out. Especially as if Nickal is uncomfortable at any moment, he’ll just take de Ridder down.
I really think de Ridder needs a submission to maximize his upside. I highly doubt he can take Nickal down. If he can, maybe he can jump on the back and jump on a submission. Maybe Nickal isn’t fully polished as a sub grappler yet. It’s not impossible but de Ridder isn’t a great wrestler and Nickal is, and I don’t really want to bet on that outcome.
De Ridder would have some sub equity from his back as well but I don’t really trust him there and he couldn’t really even outscramble Gerald Meerschaert who is far less athletic and technical than Nickal.
De Ridder is +600 to win ITD so he doesn’t rate out super well. He could also be owned more than he should be based on these metrics. Coming off two big wins, now at 7.1k, I could see de Ridder being overvalued publicly.
I’m not fully ruling him out but I consider de Ridder a low-end target at best. I think it’s a pretty terrible matchup on paper and I don’t think his path to a ceiling is there. I’ll end up very light on de Ridder personally but I wouldn’t hate a small mix-in for tournaments just in case.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Nickal by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium-High)
Santiago Ponzinibbio vs. Daniel Rodriguez
Fight Odds: Ponzinibbio -108, Rodriguez -106
Odds to Finish: +160
DraftKings Salaries: Ponzinibbio 8.2k, Rodriguez 8k
Weight Class: 170
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a battle between two middle class UFC veterans here as Daniel Rodriguez will take on Santiago Ponzinibbio.
Rodriguez is a striker and more specifically a boxer. Rodriguez lands a solid 7.50 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 5.47 in return. He defends strikes at 58 percent.
I don’t mind Rodriguez. He keeps up a ridiculous pace and doesn’t seem to really slow down either. Although he is in chaotic fights, he definitely has some skills as a boxer and it isn’t all just cardio and output in his game.
Rodriguez also seems like a tough guy and has only been knocked out twice in his career. I respect the durability of Rodriguez overall.
Rodriguez isn’t much of a grappler offensively. He lands 0.59 takedowns per 15 minutes. I actually do think he is okay and can take advantage of weak grapplers. However, I don’t expect wrestling to be a realistic path to victory for him against good fighters at Welterweight.
Rodriguez is an okay defensive grappler but not a great one. He has actually lost his last three fights and two of them came to Gastelum and Magny where he was outwrestled. He is defending takedowns at 57 percent.
Rodriguez is just a decent fighter who can stay competitive in striking fights. I do think he has lost a step though. He is 38 now and I think he was a much better fighter 3-4 years ago. However, he can still compete.
Rodriguez will be taking on Santiago Ponzinibbio. Ponz finally got a win last fight against Carlston Harris after being on a bit of a tough run in his career. He is 37 now and I do think his best days are behind him. However, he can still strike competitively at this level.
Ponz is almost exclusively a striker. He lands 4.80 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.61 in return. He defends strikes at a decent 61 percent. He has a good jab and damaging leg kicks. He is a competent and skilled striker and can compete in the middle class of this division. He has been knocked out three times in his UFC career and I have generally considered his durability fine, but it is worrying me more and more. Even in his win against Harris, he was hurt badly.
Ponz doesn’t grapple much. He only lands 0.56 takedowns per 15 minutes and isn’t an offensive wrestling threat. He defends takedowns at 71 percent and does scramble up pretty well.
I think these two are going to strike as neither wrestles much and both have good enough defensive wrestling.
I just think this is an extremely competitive striking matchup where I don’t have a ton of faith in either guy. Randomness will surely win this matchup. If random power shows up for either guy then they are probably going to win.
I could see a random knockdown or knockout landing for either guy. Both have power and both are aging.
I probably have a tad more faith in Rodriguez’ durability at this point because he has been getting hurt less consistently than Ponz. So I am going to pick Rodriguez, but it is hard to be confident in him as he has looked a bit declined lately.
I also just think this will be very close from a round winning perspective so it is hard to be confident. I don’t favor either guy much as a round winner and if no power shows up this will probably be a split decision type of fight. The extremely competitive betting line makes sense as I just see this as a very close fight.
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On DraftKings, you can choose to bet on variance and hope for a knockout, or you can choose to avoid it.
I’ll be honest – I really have no idea who is going to win and the correct take surely seems to be that the fight will play out on the feet, and it will project to be competitive. Either man can be hurt, or not. There is a lot of variance at play.
Ponzinibbio has been hurt now and knocked down in three of his past four fights, which is highly concerning to me. Harris does have power, as does Holland. He also got dropped by Morono which is concerning. To be fair, he won two of those matchups, so he’s still super tough.
I’ve always loved Ponzinibbio as a striker. He’s just quite skillful and he’s going to show up every time. His pacing is solid.
Daniel Rodriguez got hurt badly by Li Jingliang and was knocked out by Ian Garry in the following matchup. But in his last two fights he’s still put up 127 and 123 sig. strikes so he’s going to bring consistent pacing as well, and he’s been largely durable throughout his career.
I just don’t have a great read on who is going to win. They both can win.
Despite Ponzinibbio potentially having worse durability, you can also argue he’s the harder hitter of the two. Rodriguez hasn’t earned a KD in a while and at least Ponzinibbio has scored a couple of KOs recently, even in fights he’s gotten hurt in.
Rodriguez has a slightly better ITD currently at +325 vs. the +350 of Ponzinibbio, but it’s essentially the same. Rodriguez probably has better volume upside but even with 120 sig. strikes, he’s not likely to clear 85 points in a win.
So at 8.2k and 8k respectively, I see Ponzinibbio or Rodriguez needing a knockout. If I was max entering tournaments, I’d be playing some of these guys because it’s a striking fight and a knockout could happen. Neither should be too popular so if either hits, you’ll have a big advantage against the field.
With a smaller number of lineups, I’d probably rather come in light and simply hope the fight goes the distance, which it is projected to at -200. It seems like the safer play.
If I had to choose, I guess I’d lean toward Rodriguez. Ponzinibbio has had some bigger durability issues. A sprinkle here and there of Rodriguez makes sense. He can’t really be a priority though. Ponzinibbio is fine as well or in place of Rodriguez, but I like his early KO chances slightly less.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Rodriguez by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Montel Jackson vs. Daniel Marcos
Fight Odds: Jackson -192, Marcos +164
Odds to Finish: +145
DraftKings Salaries: Jackson 8.7k, Marcos 7.5k
Weight Class: 135
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
I always look forward to watching Montel Jackson fight in the Octagon and we are in for a great matchup here between him and fellow prospect Daniel Marcos.
Jackson is a good fighter and comes from a wrestling background. I consider him a good wrestler but not a perfect one. He lands 3.41 takedowns per 15 minutes. He can ride out top position. He is clearly capable of out grappling UFC competition. However, I do question his ability to outwrestle good grapplers.
Jackson is a decent defensive grappler. He defends takedowns at 69 percent and is generally good at scrambling up. He uses great hand control to scramble up. He did lose to Ricky Simon and Brett Johns though who outgrappled him. Good grapplers can definitely have success vs Jackson, but he can generally defend himself just fine against most of this division.
I also consider Jackson a skilled and dangerous striker. His athleticism and speed assist him in his striking tremendously. He lands 3.39 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 1.42 in return. He defends strikes at a solid 63 percent.
Jackson is long and controls range well. He has decent power and is capable of hurting opponents with his straight punches and kicks. He knocked Blackshear out dead in his last matchup. He also looked good in his most recent decision win against Julio Arce on the feet.
Jackson is simply a solid fighter and is very well-rounded. He can strike and grapple and he is a capable finisher with power and front choke submissions as well. He also seems durable and I have never really seen him hurt before.
Jackson will be paired up against Daniel Marcos. Marcos is a Peruvian fighter who is 17-0 professionally and 23-0 if you include amateurs.
Marcos booked his ticket to the UFC by defeating Brandon Lewis on the Contender Series in a dominant striking decision. Marcos then knocked out Saimon Oliveira in round two after dominating him for a round or two. He then won a striking based decision against Davey Grant in a very close fight that could have easily gone to Grant. I do think Marcos underperformed to a degree in that matchup, but Grant is a fine fighter and it showed Marcos is UFC level.
Marcos then had a no contest against Aoriqileng in a fight Marcos was dominating and Aoriqileng pathetically quit to push our bets on Marcos. Marcos then beat up John Castaneda in a very impressive performance, outlanding Castaneda 98-60 in significant strikes. He most recently beat Adrian Yanez by a close split decision.
Marcos is primarily a striker with eight wins coming by knockout and nine by decision. He has no submission wins in his career.
I actually think Marcos is a legit striker. He lands 5.90 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.25 in return, defending strikes at a solid 62 percent. He also does well in head strike numbers.
Marcos is a well-rounded and aggressive striker who mixes up some NASTY calf kicks and has good punches as well. He also has good kicks. He can mix it up to the body as well with kicks or punches. He also keeps up a decent pace and all of his shots are impactful. He did have a low paced fight vs Grant where he only landed 48 significant strikes, which I didn’t love, but I more so chalk it up to a step up in competition more than anything and Grant being a tough out.
I also think Marcos can strike going forwards or backwards which is rare. He is good at evading, and going backwards and countering if he needs to. I simply think his striking looks good. He got a bit tired in round three of his Contender Series fight but he actually fought through it well and still won round three just fine. That fight was also fought at a hard pace.
I tend to just think this guy is pretty slick on the feet. He has decent volume, he can be aggressive and he can counter. He also has power. I think Marcos can continue to win striking fights at this level.
Marcos doesn’t look to wrestle much and his takedown defense seems fine. I do think his takedown defense is relatively untested though. He has defended takedowns at 88 percent thus far but hasn’t faced any decent grapplers. He did shut down Castaneda’s grappling though which was nice to see, but I don’t consider Castaneda a good wrestler.
Marcos has been hurt in a couple of fights though. He doesn’t look to have bad durability but I do think he can be put out.
As far as this matchup goes, I lean Jackson slightly. I think on the feet, it will be competitive but I lean Jackson slightly for a few reasons.
First, Jackson does have a length advantage. He is three inches taller with six inches of reach. I also think Jackson may be a little better on the outside. Jackson may have a durability edge as well as we have seen Marcos hurt, so Jackson hurting Marcos would not surprise me.
I also think Jackson is the best wrestler that Marcos has fought. Marcos is still pretty untested defensively as a wrestler vs a guy like Jackson. So if Jackson is able to land takedowns, I wouldn’t be surprised. On the other hand, I would be pretty shocked if Marcos has any extended wrestling success vs Jackson.
So I just see minor advantages for Jackson which should probably lead to a win for him more often than not.
Marcos is still a very solid fighter though. Him striking competitively with Jackson or landing a big shot could easily lead to a win for him. However, Jackson does have some advantages on paper so he will be my pick to get it done.
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On DraftKings, I am really not sure what to think of this matchup and I find it one of the most difficult ones on the slate to analyze.
Jackson is priced at 8.7k and probably needs a knockout to get to the optimal lineup. He’s been absolutely killer with knockdowns up to this point in his career, and he’s landed 11 knockdowns in his past seven fights…
Context does concern me a little bit though. Super quick KOs are impressive, but they also tend to be overvalued long term. Jackson has fought some horrible competition in there too so scoring four knockdowns against JP Buys is quite literally meaningless to me. Same with Jesse Strade and Felipe Colares.
Jackson really isn’t a volume fighter either, and my gut feeling is that he’s going to need to lead the dance to continue to win fights at a high rate. He’s entered round three or gone the distance seven times in the UFC and never topped 75 sig. strikes.
Jackson just rates out incredibly well for intangibles. He’s huge, and he’ll have a three inch height and six inch reach advantage over Marcos. He has bigger hands than Francis Ngannou and real KO power. I don’t know how he will look if Marcos pressures him and makes this a slug fest and my gut feeling is that’s actually a type of fight Marcos can win.
I suppose that can still give Jackson a path to the KO. Marcos has never lost, so betting on Jackson to win by KO at a high rate seems risky, but his hands are dangerous. He’s +225 to win ITD.
Jackson can also wrestle, and takedowns may be involved. He’s not really a pace wrestler though and I wouldn’t bet on more than 2-3 takedowns. He probably won’t try to wrestle from the jump though.
I just view Jackson as a boom or bust target on this slate. I’m actually getting some worrisome vibes here, and I have a feeling this fight could extend, be somewhat slow paced, and competitive. So I’m not inclined to buy into Jackson from a fantasy standpoint at a high rate.
He’s clearly capable of knocking out anyone though, and he’s toppe 106 in six of his past seven wins. It may be worth it to come in near the field percentage just due to the historic ceiling of Jackson, but I may choose to be more cautious this week as I respect his opponent more than many of his previous ones.
Marcos at 7.5k probably needs a knockout to exceed value as well.
He is somewhat high paced but Jackson is better at distance, and doesn’t really get hit. He’s absorbing less than 1.5 sig. strikes per minute.
I do think Marcos can win this fight with some pressure and pacing, but I see that as being a 75 sig. strike type of fight in a decision, which still won’t allow him to put up a real ceiling. And I don’t think he has much wrestling equity.
Marcos is +450 to win ITD which is pretty poor, but understandable. In a high-variance fight, he could hurt Jackson. I think there’s some KO equity here. I’m not sure I want to buy into it though.
I kind of like Marcos’ win chances more than his odds suggest.. but it still doesn’t feel like a great fantasy matchup for him. At 7.5k, he’s a viable secondary target and someone I personally want a bit of exposure to, but it’s a poor scoring environment on paper and there is a low floor with Marcos, and real ceiling questions. For that reason it would be fine to come in generally light.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Jackson by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Cameron Smotherman vs. Serhiy Sidey
Fight Odds: Sidey -131, Smotherman +114
Odds to Finish: +115
DraftKings Salaries: Sidey 8.4k, Smotherman 7.8k
Weight Class: 135
We have a random matchup in the bantamweight division between Cameron Smotherman and Serhiy Sidey.
Smotherman just made his UFC debut in October as a short-notice fill-in against Jake Hadley, and surprisingly won as a +400 underdog.
Smotherman basically just outboxed Hadley for three rounds, landing 96 significant strikes to Hadley’s 60. I suppose it’s not too shocking of an outcome considering Hadley is very poorly processed and specializes as a submission grappler, but Smotherman didn’t rate out as a strong prospect either and he looked fairly comfortable in those boxing exchanges.
Smotherman is now 12-4 professionally at age 27, and he’s earned six wins by TKO and one by submission. He was previously KOd in about a minute on the Contender Series in 2023, by Charalampos Grigoriou who has already crashed out of the promotion.
Since then, he fought a few times on the regionals and won, which included two third-round finishes and a split decision, and didn’t look particularly great. I generally just consider him a boxer, who’s capable enough in that particular area of the game, and largely weak elsewhere.
Smotherman has been pretty inconsistent with his volume but to his credit, landing 96 sig. strikes in your debut is solid. If he can keep up that work rate, I will like him more as his round winning equity will be stronger. He does carry a bit of power, but I would not label him a tremendous power striker and he only has a couple of early KOs on his record.
Again to be fair, he does have a few late finishes, and his cardio looks pretty decent. He’s still be KOd early a couple of times and I’m not sure he’s much more likely to land a big shot than opponents are to land on him.
As a wrestler, Smotherman looks mediocre defensively and it doesn’t seem to be a path of his offensively.
His first-level takedown defense can be OK at times, but he looks somewhat weak on his back and he’s been put in bad positions on the regionals. I would expect a strong wrestler to take him down and potentially get in dominant positions, and I’m also not expecting him to land many takedowns of his own.
So for now, the jury is still out on Smotherman, but he rates out as a mediocre boxer who is somewhat inconsistent with both volume and power. I do think he can win boxing based fights and potentially hurt opponents, but he’ll get hurt occasionally too, outwrestled, and will probably struggle against opponents whom he can’t easily access the pocket.
Sidey is 11-2 professionally and coming off a split decision win over Garrett Armfield, in which Armield took him down a few times and the two fought competitively on the feet.
He’s won six of his fights by knockout and two more by submission. He has one loss by decision in 2020, and the other came in his UFC debut which was a rematch against Ramon Taveras, the opponent whom Sidey knocked out early on DWCS. That was another split decision where Taveras hurt Sidey this time, and the two generally struck competitively.
In his regional loss, he was essentially outwreslted for the entire fight, though by a strong opponent. His opponent got takedowns, control, and threatened with the back and arm-triangles.
I just don’t have a lot of confidence that Sidey can maintain a high win percentage in the UFC. He’s decent enough as a scrapper, which is what I would characterize him as.
Sidey is pretty tall and long for the division, and he’ll have a couple inches of height and reach on Smotherman. He is capable of striking at a high pace, and he even went five rounds in 2022 no problem.
I don’t view Sidey as an elite athlete, or power striker, or really a major threat in any capacity though. He’s a guy who’s relatively tough, with good cardio, and who’s willing to throw down for an extended period of time.
Yeah he can mix up wrestling here and there but I don’t view it as a major path to victory for him at the UFC level. He’s a purple belt in jiu-jitsu, and did put Armfield in some tricky spots when he was taken down. I think he’s most capable in winning rounds on the feet, and perhaps he can hurt opponents here and there with attrition.
As far as this matchup, it’s not one I feel super comfortable with.
Sidey rates out a little better for me. I think he’s the superior kicker in this matchup, and I trust his pacing a little bit more.
The general issue though is that Sidey can be scrappy and effective offensively, but he’s just not the most sound defensive fighter. That’s going to give credence to both Sidey hurting Smotherman, who’s been KOd multiple times, as well as Smotherman hurting Sidey, who arguably has more one-punch power and Sidey has already been knocked down in the UFC.
I guess I would give the general toughness edge to Sidey, but I don’t feel particularly great about it. He’s just going to have more tools as Smotherman generally needs to box while Sidey can kick from longer distances.
Additionally, I would have to favor the grappling skills of Sidey at this point. He is certainly not a sure bet to wrestle, but he should be the more likely of the two to earn top position and threaten with a submission. It may even be in his best interest to grapple here, which makes things interesting as we haven’t yet seen him land a takedown in 32.5 cage minutes.
It feels fair to make the betting line competitive. Smotherman has a path to victory standing, he could win competitive rounds with boxing and potentially hurt Sidey. Sidey can do the same, and likely has an advantage on the ground as well.
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On DraftKings, I have mild interest in this fight but it definitely feels like a major risk to be highly invested.
First of all, there’s no reason to be confident in either side. And this largely sets up as a high-variance mess where the winner still isn’t even guaranteed a big score.
Of the two, I think I would prefer Sidey though at 8.4k. He is +250 to win ITD which is OK, but not particularly special. In a decision, my best guess is that he wouldn’t land enough volume or produce enough offense to reach the optimal.
Knocking out Smotherman won’t be an easy task, but I’m open to the possibility as Sidey can be aggressive and push him more than Hadley did. Plus, the grappling aspect intrigues me a little bit. I could see the fight being a bit messy and Sidey pulling off some middle-round type submission as an outcome as well.
At 8.4k, coming off a 65 point win, I highly doubt Sidey will be owned too much. So that’s really the other benefit. He could potentially be a semi-sneaky target in this mid-range who at least carries some upside and multiple paths to score. I do largely still think he’s boom or bust and not particularly likely to hit, but I wouldn’t mind taking a few stabs or being slightly overweight.
Smotherman at 7.8k doesn’t interest me as much.
He’ll need a knockout and his ITD line is +300 which isn’t particularly strong. He just landed 96 sig. strikes though and scored 69 points, and he has pretty minimal wrestling equity.
So how much do I want to bet on a Smotherman KO? Not a whole lot. Sidey has not been KOd before, though he has been hurt. It’s not the worst play in the world from a unique perspective but I do think he is and should be viewed as a contrarian target. Without the KO, I wouldn’t expect a strong score, even in a clear win.
This isn’t a fight you must be on and it’s not a fight I will be prioritizing personally. However, when you start to get into this mid-range and need a place to take a chance at upside with lower ownership, it’s not a terrible one to look at, and I do lean toward Sidey as the fighter I’m willing to take a shot with.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Sidey by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Jeremy Stephens vs. Mason Jones
Fight Odds: Jones -590, Stephens +426
Odds to Finish: -155
DraftKings Salaries: Jones 9.5k, Stephens 6.7k
Weight Class: 155
In a crazy turn of events, both Jeremy Stephens and Mason Jones will be returning to the UFC on Saturday to fight one another, in what I’d argue is one of the most wonderful, shocking, out-of-nowhere matchups that the UFC has scheduled in quite some time.
I’m personally a huge fan of Mason Jones, and he was one of my favorite lightweight prospects during his first run in the UFC, which only lasted four fights.
Jones had an absolute war with Mike Davis in 2021 to start his career, and lost a decision. Then he was in the midst of beating down Alan Patrick before an accidental foul in which Patrick chose to quit, so the fight was ruled a no contest.
Then Jones had another war with David Onama and won, though he got a bit tired down the stretch, Onama is obviously a tough out and Jones landed 87 significant strikes and eight takedowns in the matchup. And then Jones fought Ludovit Klein who is another tough test, and he looked pretty poor there, getting outstruck cleanly to a decision loss. Then he was cut.
Since then, Jones moved back to Cage Warriors where he was already a two-division champion, and has won four more fights, including three inside the distance.
What I’ve always loved about Jones is that he will fight for your money. He is a fan-favorite, and that’s why I was so disappointed to see him “fail” and get cut from the promotion. He will go to war for you.
Jones isn’t the best athlete in the world, so he’s not the most explosive guy and he doesn’t have elite one-punch power. But he will absolutely go to war. He can be hit, and he can be hurt, but he’s tough as hell to finish and his only two losses to this day are to Mike Davis and Ludovit Klein. He’s 15-2 as a pro now with seven knockouts and three subs.
Jones can fight at a high pace, and in the UFC, he landed 5.61 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 4.94 with a 46 percent defensive rate. He’s a good boxer, and dangerous, but he’s more dangerous as an attrition striker than a pure power striker, which I like. Again, he can be hit and occasionally hurt.
Jones is also a black belt in Judo and BJJ, so he has an additional path to victory on the mat. He’s not the most physical fighter but he’s a fine wrestler and grappler and he’s willing to go that route when it’s necessary. He took Davis down once, Patrick down twice, and Onama down eight times on 14 attempts, putting him in bad positions on the mat while earning nine minutes of control.
I don’t necessarily believe Jones has improved dramatically in his time off from the UFC though, and I still largely expect him to be the same guy he was. Legit, clean, technical opponents will have a good shot to beat him. He will likely find himself in some fun wars. But he’s not an opponent to take lightly and he can absolutely maul opponents who get tired or who aren’t up to the task.
Jeremy Stephens hasn’t fought in the UFC since 2021, but he had originally debuted in 2007 and has competed in the Octagon 34 times.. he’s one of the true veterans of the featherweight division and has fought the best of the best for a decade. Now he’s up at lightweight where he briefly competed before exiting the promotion.
Since his time off, Stephens first moved into PFL where he fought three times and lost twice, including to good competition against Clay Collard and Natan Schulte. Then he fought some boxing matches, and most recently he’s competed in Bare Knuckle Boxing a few times where he’s won all three fights, including against Eddie Alvarez in January.
This is a more shocking return to the UFC because why? Why is Stephens coming back? I guess the answer is because he’s from Des Moines and because he’ll earn a paycheck, and apparently this is a one-fight signing where Stephens may leave the promotion again, depending on the result.
Stephens isn’t completely dusted but he is 38 years old now with a 29-21 pro record. The more important number is that in his last 10 MMA fights, Stephens has only won twice. He lost (essentially) each of his last five UFC bouts before exiting, and then went 1-2 in the PFL, so it’s difficult to have high hopes here.
At the same time, his level of competition was still absolutely stellar… Jose Aldo, Zabit, Yair, Kattar, Gamrot, Collard and Schulte. There’s no shame in losing to those guys.
My best guess is that Stephens will still retain most of the skills he had when he was last competing in the UFC, which is largely just power. He’s an incredible power striker and of his 29 pro wins, 18 have come by KO. He nearly ended the career of Josh Emmett in their main event in 2018 when he basically broke Emmett’s face.
In his later career, Stephens was starting to get hurt a bit more. Aldo TKOd him with a body shot. Kattar put him down and finished him. But he’s still only been knocked out three times which is not a lot for a huge sample of fights.
The bigger issue probably is on the ground. Stephens isn’t a bad wrestler but he’s not a good one, and he was defending takedowns at 65 percent. Gamrot took him down and subbed him in a minute in his final UFC fight. Schulte took him down pretty easily and subbed him in the second round too, which I think is why he made the switch to boxing.
From the sounds of it, the UFC might be giving Stephens a chance here because if he wins, he will call out Connor McGregor… the two shared a famous moment back in the day and now with the Chandler hype gone… this would actually be a fight McGregor might want and could sell.. I don’t know..
The other part of me still looks at the matchup and thinks that Stephens is pretty live. I am a bit surprised to see Mason Jones, who’s career best win is David Onama, lined at -600 to win.
If Mason Jones wants a war on the feet, he might get one, and Stephens definitely has more power than him. So in that sense, I wouldn’t all be surprised if Stephens could land on Jones and hurt him. He could win rounds with damage.
I guess that is the only way he wins though. Stephens was never a great volume striker, and only landed 3.17 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 3.05 per minute with a 58 percent defensive rate. Those metrics are OK, especially defensively.
Stephens wants a slower paced fight where he can land single shots and make his power impactful. Jones probably wants to push the pace and mix in his grappling.
I would still favor Jones, I guess, in a pure MMA striking fight at this point. He is just incredibly tough and pushes a hard pace. Assuming he goes after Stephens, I do think Stephens would have a chance early but I’d bet on Jones having more extended success. Either man could get hurt but Stephens has been finished and Jones has not.
Additionally, if Jones starts to have success with his takedowns, the fight could just be over. Jones isn’t a world-beater as a wrestler so I’m not convinced he will make it look easy, but if he attempts many takedowns, he should score some. It would be smart of him to do so and probably do so early.
Again, my guess is as the fight progresses, Jones will just start to take over and potentially find a finish on the mat. Some fun early exchanges with Jones wrestling, and finding a mid-round submission feels like a reasonable outcome to predict.
I don’t think this is a complete wash though, especially if Stephens gets a stand-up affair. He’s extremely powerful and experienced and Jones is not great defensively. Jones is a lot higher paced though, and tough, and a better grappler. As a returning 30-year-old, I like his chances to win as long as he doesn’t get KOd quickly.
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On DraftKings, Jones is the most expensive fighter on the board at 9.6k which is again a bit of a surprise for me.
I do generally like to target him though because of his pacing, and he has the tools to exceed value at pretty much any price. He will simply have less room for error at 9.6k than at a cheaper number.
In his lone win, Jones scored 127 points over Onama, but let’s remember that came with eight takedowns. He also scored 56 in a loss to Davis. He would have cleared 100 points had Patrick not quit due to the incidental foul.
Especially factoring in the wrestling here, I do think Jones can put up a decent score. He’ll likely need a win ITD which I don’t think is a guarantee, but if he gets one, it will surely come with lots of offensive production, and probably some on the mat.
Jones is -125 to win ITD which is up from +100 ITD earlier in the week. It’s interesting because the top range simply is not as stacked with high-end finishers like we’ve seen in recent weeks. And the fight is -225 to go Over 1.5 rounds, so the public is really backing Jones’ chances to win a decision, assuming the fight goes that long.
Simply put, there is still a risk here of Jones scoring in the mid-80s. He could land 80-100 significant strikes, 1-2 takedowns and 3-5 minutes of ground control, and comfortably win. The higher side of that projection would put him closer to 90 points which is still not horrible. The worst case scenario is no wrestling, a slower paced striking fight that Stephens wants, and a complete bust, or a loss.
The upside is that Jones really puts his foot on the gas and goes after Stephens. If he does that, and wrestles, he could get an early finish. Jones has a lot of RD1/2 finishes in his career and I could absolutely see an outcome where he finds a RD 2 ground finish. I think that is my prediction ultimately.
That kind of performance should allow him to clear 100 points, and I think that’s essentially what we’re aiming for here. Jones looks to grapple and gets a finish at some point.
At 9.6k, he’s obviously not a must target due to pricing and if you can’t afford him, that’s OK. Cory Sandhagen is priced right there too and it will be hard to fit both, though I have concerns about him as well. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Robertson, Bekoev and Nickal pick up a lot of ownership given the finishing potential at cheaper prices.
If I’m being completely honest, I may just YOLO this one and play a bunch of Jones anyway. I am really biased toward him as a fan which is rare, and I want to see him succeed. I do think he has the upside to beat out most of this range, though it will take the right circumstances. Pricing will still factor in so it will be tough to get an extreme amount of exposure, but I don’t mind Jones as a semi-priority overall, despite the expensive tag.
Stephens at 6.7k doesn’t feel like the worst punt in the world, just considering his experience and finishing skill set.
Like I said above, he hits incredibly hard and Jones isn’t spectacular defensively. If these two just box, Stephens could potentially hurt him. In theory he’d have to match Jones’ production or finish him to win the fight.
I just don’t love that Stephens is slower paced and so if he wins a decision, it still probably doesn’t score super well, unless he’s racking up KDs in the process. He’s +675 to win ITD so it’s hard to fall in love with his finishing chances. He could maybe land a takedown but he won’t do anything with it.
Odds would indicate not to play Stephens, so it’s fine if you go that route. I probably won’t end up with anything more than a tiny sprinkle in large-fields. He doesn’t seem like the worst dart/play though, considering some of the unknowns/variance at play and potential leverage against Jones.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Jones by Arm-Triangle, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium)
UNDERCARD
Yana Santos vs. Miesha Tate
Fight Odds: Tate -137, Santos +119
Odds to Finish: +250
DraftKings Salaries: Tate 8.3k, Santos 7.9k
Weight Class: 135
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a battle between two UFC veterans here as Miesha Tate will take on Yana Santos this weekend.
Since coming out of retirement, Tate is now 2-2. She dominated Marion Reneau and Julia Avila with grappling. She lost close fights to Ketlen Viera and Lauren Murphy because she couldn’t get her grappling game going.
Tate lands 2.62 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.98 in return. She defends strikes at 51 percent. I do think Tate has improved her striking volume a bit in her last few fights, but I don’t totally have faith in her on the feet. She just isn’t very athletic or skilled as a striker. She is very tough though and will look to pressure hard which can sometimes lead to success for her.
Tate is definitely best as a wrestler and grappler. She lands 2.02 takedowns per 15 minutes and has a decently heavy top game, and is capable of landing ground-and-pound and advancing position. I actually think the takedowns and top game of Tate have really improved in her recent run. Her top game is actually good and she can absolutely annihilate weak grapplers in this division.
Tate also has good cardio. When she can mix in her striking and wrestling, she has a decent and steady mix of offense. You saw that against Reneau and Avila. I am way more confident in Tate winning fights when she can mix in takedowns.
Tate defends takedowns at 55 percent which isn’t great. However, I have always generally considered her a decent defensive wrestler and capable scrambler.
Tate is just a girl who will own weak grapplers and will generally struggle if she can’t get her grappling going. I really do think her top game is good. When she has an opponent that she can actually take down, she will thrive.
Tate will be taking on UFC veteran Yana Santos (formerly Kunitskaya). Santos specializes in the clinch. She will use her physicality and strength, push her opponents up against the fence, and look to land point scoring shots up against the cage.
If you actually look at Yana’s metrics, they look good. She lands 4.42 significant strikes per minute and only absorbs 3.12. However, the reason she has a good ratio is because she is generally limiting her opponent’s offense by clinching them up. When she is at range, I don’t trust her nearly as much and she only defends strikes at 50 percent. So when her opponents are not clinched up and have room, they can certainly land on her.
You saw that in her matchup against Aldana and against Rosa in her last loss. She can spam kicks though and just outstrike opponents on activity, but she isn’t dangerous at all.
I also don’t totally love Yana’s takedown game. She lands 0.97 takedowns per 15 minutes. They all generally came in one fight (5 takedowns against Lina Lansberg) and that was the only fight where she landed more than 1 takedown in a fight. She just doesn’t seem to care to land takedowns. She only attempts about 2 takedowns per fight. She just will hold her opponents in the clinch and not really level change or even attempt a body lock takedown.
Yana’s defensive wrestling is poor. She only defends takedowns at 42 percent and can get stuck on her back and give up advances of position. She hasn’t faced too many wrestlers. Only a few girls have tried to consistently grapple her and she was taken down easily and held down easily. Ladd destroyed her and landed 2 takedowns. Holm destroyed her and landed 4 takedowns, and obtained 9:49 of control.
I think because of Yana’s poor TDD and get up game, this is a sneaky great matchup for Tate. Tate thrives when she can land takedowns because she has a great top game. I see no reason why Tate can’t land takedowns here. Tate actually has a good TD game and Yana is seriously awful as a defensive wrestler. Yana is a sucker for below the waist takedowns and Tate absolutely has that in her arsenal. I also think Tate can advance position, get the back and threaten for a finish.
I actually think Tate has sneaky finishing upside here as well. Tate’s last three wins have all come by finish, on the ground, in round three. I feel like she can probably beat Yana up and threaten with a finish in the second half of this fight. I absolutely love the Tate betting line at -113 (as of my write-up), considering all of the grappling upside that she has. Yana’s tdd and get-ups are just not strong, and that is the type of opponent Tate thrives against.
I honestly would be surprised if Tate doesn’t win at least one clear round with takedowns and top control. So all Tate has to do is stay competitive in the other couple of rounds and she should win. I honestly just see Tate winning from bell to bell with takedowns and control, so her ceiling is tremendous.
IF for whatever reason Tate can’t land takedowns, this fight will still probably be very close. I probably favor the kicking game of Yana more on the feet but Tate honestly may have better hands and toughness. In the clinch, it will probably be close. So the worst case scenario for Tate is she can’t get her game going with grappling, and she ends up in a close, ugly, striking, clinch oriented type of fight.
So Tate has to be the side here. I think she matches up well stylistically and my guess is that she lands takedowns and has success on the mat. Maybe I am overestimating Tate because she is 38 now. However, she looked herself in her last matchup vs Avila and doesn’t have a skillset that ages poorly. So my guess is Tate wins this with grappling.
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On DraftKings, Tate is priced at 8.3k and she’s starting to get a little bit of steam on the moneyline as well.
Obviously she’s my preferred play of the two, considering her grappling path, and given Tim’s analysis. I generally agree that it is a favorable matchup for her – I would say that my concerns more so come with her limitations outside of her wrestling, the fact that she’s 38 years old and hasn’t competed in a year and a half.
Tate could be a popular mid-range target but that will depend on how much hype she gets outside of our content. She is coming off a 116-point score and the public will know she has a wrestling path, but she’s still a thin favorite and only +275 to win ITD.
Still, there seems to be a pretty clear path for Tate to exceed value in a win, given her style. She will likely secure multiple takedowns, earn many minutes of control, and she has potential to land lots of ground strikes as well. Without a finish though, there’s no guarantee Tate smashes.
She’s just a pretty easy click at 8.3k given her style of fighting. She’s scored 60-70 points in a handful of past decisions, many years ago, but those didn’t even come with much wrestling. If we get three takedowns here, Tate can easily clear 80 points and at that point, you probably want exposure just in case there’s domination to the point of a near-finish, which could see her exceed 100 points again.
So yeah, I’d consider Tate a strong secondary target at 8.3k. You don’t have to be extraordinarily overweight to the field but it’s not the worst spot to lean into either. Especially for the price tag, I’ll likely end up with a fair amount of Tate exposure this week.
Santos at 7.9k doesn’t interest me really.
I just don’t see her producing a whole lot of offense and it feels like her finishing ability will be extremely minimal. She is only +1000 to win ITD which makes sense.
Santos can rack up points with clinch control and non-sig. strikes, which is why we’ve seen her score 90-100+ in the past. But I don’t think this is the ideal matchup for her to excel there. The most likely outcome is that Santos lands like 80 sig. strikes with two minutes of control and a takedown in a decision, which wouldn’t get her close to the optimal unless a million non-sig. strikes come with it.
I do think she could sneak into the 80s but I don’t see a ceiling much above that. It just doesn’t feel like a great setup or one worthy of a significant investment. She’ll be very low owned though.
At 7.9k, Santos is just too expensive with little finishing or domination upside, so I don’t really plan on investing in her myself. She’ll be a contrarian target but not a particularly good one.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Tate by Decision (Confidence=Medium)
Ryan Loder vs. Azamat Bekoev
Fight Odds: Bekoev -435, Loder +333
Odds to Finish: -130
DraftKings Salaries: Bekoev 9.3k, Loder 6.9k
Weight Class: 185
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Azamat Bekoev is the former LFA 185 lb. champ who got the short notice call-up to the UFC back in January where he made good on his debut, finishing Zach Reese – he’s 19-3 as a pro. Ryan Loder was a cast member on this past season of The Ultimate Fighter where he made it to the finals and secured a contract this past August – he’s 7-1 as a pro.
The striking component:
Bekoev is a more sambo guy, but he will stand and strike for stretches in his fights as well. He’s a compact 185er standing 5’11” with a 72” reach and works in a traditional Russian coast type of style.
So his volume is on the lower end to average at best, and he doesn’t really throw in extended combinations – lead hooks, 1-2s, overhands, uppercuts, etc. As a result, he’s not one to overtly separate when his fights are on the feet as it’s a lot of pitter patter mid-range exchanges.
He scored a pretty nasty knockout over Foxworth in the LFA prior to his debut, but he’s not a huge power puncher with only 7 of his 18 pro wins coming via KO/TKO — most of which being positional TKOs on the floor.
Defensively, he’s a bit rigid but his style also doesn’t really allow opponents to get off extensive volume on him either, as he keeps a high guard and/or will look to shoot under committal opponents.
He’s never been officially KO’d as a pro, but I have seen him buzzed in a few different fights, specifically with knees.
Overall, Bekoev is a serviceable striker but he’s also not a guy you can expect to go out there and run away with fights standing – semi-credence to three of his six fights going to split that have seen the scorecards.
Loder’s a floor player by base which leaves a bit more to be desired in relation to his stand-up game.
He stands southpaw and works a more kickboxing based style. In everything I’ve watched, it seems like he’s a guy that’s more or less just looking to “exist” when his fights are standing.
He’s low volume, doesn’t throw in combinations often, leads with naked kicks and hasn’t shown any real distance power components.
But because he’s not necessarily just standing in front of guys, he’s also not eating a ton of strikes at the same time either so the general extended exchanges in his fights tend to have tighter margins.
He’s never been KO’d before but I have seen him get buckled in three different fights now, where he’s been susceptible to straighter punches. Additionally, guys have found some success when they’ve been able to cut angles off on him because his defense is more or less just shelling off entry.
Overall, I’m not really impressed with Loder’s stand up and think he’s a KO waiting to happen at the UFC level. But if fighters are going to give him a tepid range affair, he can compete in those types of fights.
How it plays out: Off the top, Loder will realize a size advantage of 2” in height and 4” in reach. There are some similar things to be said about both guys in not being volume machines that are more mid-range based. But despite me referencing above that I don’t think Bekoev is a gigantic hitter, he does hit harder than Loder as I’ve seen him hurt more guys standing, and I’d also say that he’s better defensively exchange to exchange. I just don’t like the lead body kicks of Loder here when they may be met with right hands from Bekoev, coupled with what may also bring in reactionary TD shots from Bekoev. But like I also referenced, I still don’t trust a guy like Bekoev to go out there and volume up guys standing, especially if Loder is being more non-committal.
The wrestling/grappling component:
As noted, Bekoev comes from a sambo background where the ground has produced the large bulk of his career successes.
He’s got some decent entries to TDs, wrestles to the legs specifically well and is very physically strong.
His top control has generally been decent but multiple opponents have been able to work up under him – he does a good job of staying on guys though to then reshoot.
Eight of his pro wins have come via submission in addition to multiple GNP finishes, but they’ve also come over largely a low-level of competition, with the exception of Honeycutt who’s a stronger American wrestler although he doesn’t have great jiu-jitsu, and Bekoev got him in transition. Zach Reese is kind of fraudulent (still not sure how I feel about him as a talent).
But in his more recent LFA fights, he’s shown more lay and pray components to grind from full or half guard.
Defensively, he can be taken down but isn’t a guy who accepts being there and will look to wrestle up quickly.
He got submitted with a scarf hold in his last ACA fight, which wasn’t the best of looks, but part of that I attribute to him not being fully there as he got rocked in that round.
Overall, Bekoev has the wrestling to grind out/finish lower-mid level guys who don’t come proper on the floor, but he’s had some struggles against the more capable takedown defenders he’s fought.
Loder comes from a freestyle wrestling background where he attended the University of Northern Iowa (Division-I) and was a 4x national qualifier. He’s currently one of the wrestling coaches at Team Alpha Male in California as well.
Given his base, the ground is where he’s had his clearer success through his pro career to date.
Ironically, he hasn’t shown a ton of open mat wrestling but has excelled with cage wrestling in getting opponents down with body locks or double legs after closing distance.
When he’s been able to secure top positions, he’s by and large been stronger there in terms of racking up minutes. He’s also a wrestler who will look to pass and throw GNP which is how four of his pro wins have finished. We also saw him secure an arm triangle in the quarterfinals on TUF but he has no official submission wins as a pro – I’m unsure of his jiu-jitsu credentials.
Defensively, he hasn’t really been shot on much so assessing his defense wrestling is kind of questionable. I’ve only seen him on bottom a few times off slips in which he’s worked up in shorter order.
But we did see Valentin win a scramble in round one to get to Loder’s back where he was threatened with some viable RNC attempt, and was flattened out at one point, but Loder defended well and was eventually able to get back on top.
Overall, I’d anticipate the ground where Loder will realize primary success at the UFC level, but I still don’t think he’s a phenomenal wrestler to be honest despite his credentials, definitely above-average though.
How it plays out: Off the top, the floor’s kind of interesting from a high level because you don’t often see these battles between stronger sambo and American wrestling – usually you get fights matchmade around it with strikers or jiu-jitsu guys. It’s honestly difficult to benchmark (despite extensive tape) because we’ve seen very little of either guy on the bottom, and they’ve generally been persistent in terms of their get ups/re-wrestles or they’re controlling the exchanges themselves – coupled with me thinking that both aren’t “adept” submission grapplers. But I would say that Bekoev does have the better jiu-jitsu of the two and I side more with him in terms of being the better wrestler – still not a passionate opinion on that 2nd part though.
I’m actually not as high on Bekoev as the general market is, and making out Loder as a newer talent commodity at 33 years, having only been competing in MMA for four years is still kind of difficult. I ultimately favor Bekoev in all realms here but I also think there’s a realistic chance that Bekoev struggles to wrestle Loder, to which we then get a primary striking fight. As noted, I think Bekoev has more power and better defense but he’s also not a great minute winner per say to where the fight margins could tighten up barring no finish.
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On DraftKings, I don’t fully know what to make of this matchup.
I will say that coming into Loder’s debut, I was not high on him at all. I don’t think he’s a particularly effective wrestler and I can’t imagine him sustaining success at this level with his striking. Perhaps you can come away positive from his UFC debut but his opponent is a pretty poor takedown defender and just lost another wrestling based fight to Finney after that.
Bekoev I think is a fine prospect and my analysis mostly matches up with Lukes, and I also don’t want to take away too much from his debut against Reese, who has now been put horribly unconscious in both UFC losses.
Bekoev is ultimately priced up to 9.3k here, and coming off the 114 UFC debut win. He’s now lined north of -400 to win and is +105 to win ITD. I expect Bekoev to be relatively popular due to this.
I don’t mind him. He has some wrestling equity, and some finishing equity. I’m really not sold how dominant he can be in grappling exchanges but I also am not a fan of Loder, so I’m willing to believe Bekoev has upside both on the feet and on the mat. I’m a little skeptical of buying in too much though, as Loder could neutralize some of the wrestling and make the striking exchanges slow paced.
I may honestly lean against targeting a lot of Bekoev this week because of these concerns. He seems like a fine target against an opponent he should beat, but I’m just not super comfortable in how the fight looks and I don’t think his path to a quick KO is as simple as it may look on his box score. The fight is still -125 to go Over 2.5 rounds here which is a big concern.
I don’t want to talk you off Bekoev, I’m simply not sold on him and I’m still uncertain on how exactly he matches up with Loder. There are other fighters in this range I like as well. Overall, I’d say Bekoev is a fine secondary target with wrestling equity and upside, but there’s some lacking of data here and I’d be a bit spooked off if he projects to be very popular.
Loder at 6.9k makes me nervous as well.
I just don’t see a scenario where I load up on him based on my original analysis, and the current odds.
However, you can still make the case that Loder is a decent tournament target due to his wrestling upside. In a win, I’d guess wrestling is involved although I suppose it could also be kickboxing based.
Loder is +625 to win ITD here which is pretty poor, and I don’t see a lot of finishing equity on paper. I am worried about underestimating him since I underestimated him in his debut matchup, though his one is obviously tougher.
At 6.9k, you can sprinkle him in if you want to. He might get some love coming off a 110 point score but I wouldn’t expect him to be super popular at these odds. His cheap price tag does make a lot of constructions work though.
It doesn’t feel like a great matchup and I don’t want to invest in the guy longterm, but with some uncertainties, he’s an OK low-end play at the price tag.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Bekoev by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium)
Marina Rodriguez vs. Gillian Robertson
Fight Odds: Robertson -297, Rodriguez +242
Odds to Finish: +170
DraftKings Salaries: Robertson 9.2k, Rodriguez 7k
Weight Class: 115
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
Ever since dropping down to strawweight, Gillian Robertson has been on a roll and she is looking to make it four in a row this weekend against Marina Rodriguez.
Grappling is all Robertson really does, and she is pretty much only going to win fights by submission or by three round decision with top time.
Robertson’s striking is not very good. She lands 2.89 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.95 in return. She defends strikes at 56 percent. The purpose of her striking is just to limit striking engagements and set up her takedowns. She isn’t going to win many rounds on the feet.
Robertson’s takedowns are pretty decent for WMMA. She has a good single leg and a lot of takedown diversity. She lands 2.68 takedowns per 15 minutes and lands takedowns at a 41 percent rate. Once she gets on top, she is very dangerous and skilled as a submission grappler.
Robetson’s passing stats are off the charts. I won’t go too much into detail with them. However, she basically gets a pass or two for every takedown that she lands. So she is very capable of getting to dominant positions like back takes and locking in submissions.
I have never liked Robertson’s physicality. She sometimes has major issues when she goes against strong girls. Santos and Maverick were able to neutralize Robertson because they were much more physical than her.
However, she looks a lot bigger and stronger at strawweight and I think the drop in weight class was a great decision by her. So perhaps physicality will not be as big of an issue for her going forward and it hasn’t looked to be an issue in most of her strawweight fights.
One thing people seem to forget is that Robertson is not a good defensive wrestler. She defends takedowns at 41 percent and isn’t really interested in defending takedowns. It makes sense because she wants the fight on the mat anyway which is fine. However, on her back, she can actually be controlled and her get-ups are not great. So she is prone to being controlled on the mat herself which is something that people probably overlook. Robertson can attack with good armbars off her back. However, she needs to be in top position to win fights, and I don’t like that she can be controlled on the mat.
Robertson will be taking on Marina Rodriguez. Marina thrives as a Muay Thai striker with the capabilities of mixing in a vast array of strikes. She can kick, knee, punch, and elbow. She is truly an 8-limb threat.
Marina is also semi lanky and long for the division, and is capable of landing in all different striking ranges as well. She can land at range, mid-range, and in close quarters with her elbows and knees. She is dangerous.
Marina lands 4.64 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.04 in return. She defends strikes at 55 percent. She has solid metrics with strong output, and it has come against pretty solid competition as well.
I also like Marina’s power. Power and volume is a great combination for a striker and Marina has both. She is definitely an above-average hitter for this division. She knocked out Amanda Ribas and her strikes just seem very impactful on a strike per strike basis. It looks good to the judges.
Marina doesn’t really grapple to win rounds. She lands 0.28 takedowns per minute and isn’t really interested in grappling offensively.
Marina is an okay defensive grappler and defends takedowns at 62 percent. She can generally defend submissions. Her get-up game is decent at times but good grapplers can control her on the mat. I just don’t have a ton of faith in her vs above average grapplers.
That is why I think Robertson is the rightful favorite here. I just doubt Marina can hold Robertson off for 15 minutes. My guess is that Robertson gets the takedowns that she needs and racks up top time. Marina does seem to survive on the mat so this may go to the cards. However, I still consider Robertson a legit submission grappler and I wouldn’t rule out a ground finish.
Obviously this is a binary fight though and if Marina for whatever reason gets some striking time, she will beat the crap out of Robertson. So you can’t completely rule out a Marina win.
Robertson is just a consistent fighter though and when she is at a clear grappling advantage which she is here she usually does the right thing and gets the win.
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On DraftKings, this fight is as binary as it gets so there will definitely be some interest.
Robertson will be the preferred target and at 9.2k, there’s a pretty solid chance she ends up as the chalk of the top range. She has won five of her last six fights and in those wins, Robertson has scored 101, 102, 105, 106 and 96. Her box scores look really strong overall and that will attract attention.
I have mixed feelings because I do not consider this matchup an ideal one in comparison to Robertson’s recent wins. It certainly is not a bad matchup, but while Rodriguez can be taken down, she is not easy to finish. She already survived three rounds on the mat with Virna Jandiroba, and she beat Mackenzie Dern. This is not the same type of matchup as Robertson has seen recently with the likes of Polyana Viana or Luana Pinheiro, for example.
The ITD metrics back that up as Robetson is only +185 to win ITD, up from +145 earlier in the week. The GTD odds have dropped from +130 to +170 this week as well. It still shows some submission equity, which is fair, but the finish does not feel like the most likely outcome. That is obviously a concern of mine as a decision could mean a more competitive fight, and a less chance of hitting a pure ceiling, at chalk.
With that said, Robertson can still get there. Her last two wins were by decision, so even if she wins by decision again, she can top 100 points. She needed 5 TDs + 8:13 CTRL + 78 strikes in one of those decisions, and 2 TDs + 13:34 CTRL + 122 strikes in the other.
The thing is, Robertson isn’t really going to mess around, so she probably either just can get the takedowns or she cannot. Most likely she can, so it’s definitely in play for Robertson to land another 3 TDs + 10 CTRL + 90 strikes and score 90+ on DraftKings again.
I guess my issue is more in terms of the top end ceiling. If Robertson wins, she’s going to score well and potentially contend for the optimal. But you’ll notice that she’s barely surpassing 100 points, and if you scroll back far enough in her box score, you’ll find Robertson has won and scored 94, 92, 97 and 98 as well.
This matchup is not as easy as Amorim vs. Viana last week but I have similar thoughts in that Robertson is fairly safe on paper and should put up a good score. But when I’m projecting ceiling and IF WIN cases, it might not be a bad place to pivot. Robertson could very realistically put up 98 and miss the optimal at 9.2k if someone nearby wins ITD.
For the price, she’s still a pretty easy target and I expect she’ll fit into lineups very well, which will only add to her popularity. I’ll likely have moderate exposure myself. I may look to only match the field or come in a bit underweight in order to get a bit different in tournaments, given the ceiling and DEC concerns.
Rodriguez at 7k will rate out horribly on paper but it’s a binary matchup so she still has some potential.
She just has zero floor, and will likely get held down. But Rodriguez is way better than Robertson standing, so if Robertson actually cannot land takedowns, Rodriguez could light her up and maybe knock her out. It just seems like Robertson will find a way to get the fight to the ground and even in a striking fight, Rodriguez landing some volume won’t be enough to smash. She’ll need a knockdown at least.
Rodriguez is only +900 to win ITD and she’s a big dog, so it doesn’t make sense to play a whole lot of her. However, she’ll carry huge leverage against Robertson and is actually fairly skilled, so it’s not an impossible task for her to win.
I don’t love Rodriguez but considering the binary nature and leverage included, you can make the case for low-end exposure at 7k.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Robertson by Decision (Confidence=Medium-High)
Gaston Bolanos vs. Quang Le
Fight Odds: Bolanos -130, Le +113
Odds to Finish: +105
DraftKings Salaries: Bolanos 8.5k, Le 7.7k
Weight Class: 135
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
Gaston Bolanos started off in the Bellator promotion, fighting with them for roughly six years before he got the UFC call back in 2023. He’s coming off an upset win over the recently cut Cortavious Romious back in November – he’s 2-1 in the UFC and 8-4 as a pro. Quang Le came up through the UFC’s feeder league in the LFA, repping seven fights with the promotion. He got the UFC call last year as a short notice fill-in and is still in search of his first UFC win – he’s 0-2 in the UFC and 8-2 as a pro.
The striking component:
Bolanos comes from a muay thai and kickboxing background where he had 50 fights in the discipline before moving over to MMA full time back in 2018.
He’ll fight out of both stances but does favor orthodox more than southpaw. He tends to fight at a more tepid pace within the mid-range, firing straight shots and has shown pretty sound leg kicks which have compromised opponents before.
We’ve also seen him play within the pressure game where he’ll rip off some bigger combos within the pocket.
Bolanos primarily falls more into the technical KO artist category, with six of his eight pro wins coming via KO/TKO, and he has been known for his spinning elbow KOs not only within MMA but dating back to his muay thai days as well.
Defensively, he’s largely good at range but I have issues with him in the pocket as can fight with his hands down at times and he hasn’t always dealt well with effective pressure.
We saw him get hurt badly in his 1st pro loss with a wheel kick against Laroca, which started the beginning of the end, and he struggled with the calculated pressure of McGhee, getting chipped away at and eventually TKO’d.
He also got hurt at the end of the 1st round by Romious last time out – not sure why that wasn’t ruled a knockdown. But in a vacuum, he hasn’t faced much volume back his way and has largely been able to manage the exchanges in his fights.
Overall, Bolanos has shown good technical prowess standing and is dangerous, but he’s not a guy you can trust to get far ahead on minutes if he’s fighting a more mobile striker. He’ll most likely be a 60 SS ceiling type of guy in extended fights. It’s also important to note that he hasn’t fought many good strikers or fighters in general to be candid.
I’m unsure of Le’s striking background but he fights in a karate/kickboxing esque type of style.
Historically, he’s not the highest volume striker and falls more into the technical sniper category. His best weapons are his kicks where he’s shown good dexterity in both legs as he’ll throw a snappy lead and rear high kick which has caught numerous opponents.
But he’s also shown solid longer straight shots and pull counters with his hands – his last two pro wins come via KO.
Defensively, he’s a linear fighter so he has struggled with effective pressure at times and can keep his head on the centerline, but he has also proven largely durable to date. It does need to be noted that he hasn’t fought many great strikers in the aggregate though.
However, he had a tall task in his short notice debut, taking on a seasoned UFC level striker in Chris Gutierrez – he really struggled to track him down when the fight was at distance where he was out landed 58 to 17. In his defense, Gutierrez has been a difficult striking puzzle to solve for many guys and he also ate all his leg kicks without being compromised.
Most recently, he had a competitive scrap with Xiao where he landed some really big shots and did some solid work to the body, but Xiao proved his toughness. Xiao ultimately outlanded him 87-64 where he was landing the bigger shots overall and eventually put Le down in the 3rd with a right hand. Despite the final result, I still consider Le a pretty durable guy as he took a lot of clean shots prior that didn’t faze him much.
Overall, despite having a decent amount of tape on Le, I’d still like to see him in more striking exchanges because benchmarking him right now is a bit difficult. He’s a technical guy that’s dangerous but I have some issues with his volume and defense.
How it plays out: There are quite a few parallels between both guys outside of being the same age and at relative size parity. Both aren’t high volume strikers that prefer to play in the mid-range, are punchy-kicky, and have power but some defensive issues on the inside. I would ultimately lean Bolanos as I feel he’s a bit cleaner/crisper in his technique with better low kicks. But despite Le coming off a KO loss, I do think he’s the more durable guy here as Bolanos has been hurt a healthy amount now in his pro career. Both guys theoretically will kind of give each other the type of striking fight they enjoy which additionally makes things interesting.
The wrestling/grappling component:
I’m unsure of Bolanos’ grappling credentials but the ground has been where his primary career struggles have come.
Our overall sample isn’t large, but it’s been how he’s lost three of his pro fights. As noted above, Laroca did hurt him badly which forced a TD shot from Bolanos where he got wrapped up in triangle – a bit more forgivable.
In the 1st Carey fight, nothing much happened – Carey grabbed a hold of his neck in a clinching position, but Bolanos didn’t fight hands – Carey jumped the gilly and got it. In his last Bellator loss to Hatley Jr, he by and large got wrestled and/or stuck against the fence for the majority of fight minutes.
He did originally better in working up from the TDs but got extensively controlled on the ground in the 2nd – he also got mounted but worked out of it. The ultimate takeaway was that he just generally struggled to keep space in that fight.
He avenged his loss to Carey, knocking him out, but there was no grappling in that fight.
In his debut against Phillips, he got taken down three times on five attempts, got his back taken in both the 2nd and 3rd rounds and conceded six minutes of control time – he did work up and out of bad positions though.
McGhee went 1/3 on TDs and got nearly two minutes of control but parts of that came against the fence and Bolanos was able to work up but ate damage in the process.
Most recently, he was taken down four times on six attempts by Romious, conceding six minutes of ground control time where he also got his back taken. But Bolanos was able to capitalize on some mistakes from Romious and get on top as well, landing some good GNP.
Overall, the floor hasn’t been great for Bolanos in the aggregate as it’s a component of his game that he’ll to need to sure up at a more rapid rate, now fighting at the UFC level. His submission defense does appear approved though and he’s shown he can find opening to reverse or get up if given the proper opportunities.
Le is a BJJ purple belt where we’ve seen a healthy amount of grappling in his fight both for and against.
He’s not necessarily the most consistent wrestler fight to fight, but he has mixed TDs into many of them. His entries seem okay but nothing that will really blow your hair back.
He has found success in top positions though to rack up some minutes, throw GNP and can take the back with three of his eight pro wins coming via submission.
He took Gutierrez down twice on 11 attempts in his debut, but his real success came in taking Gutierrez’s back standing in the 2nd round, racking up three minutes of control and winning that round. He also did a good job of staying on top of Gutierrez when the body triangle was broken.
He had an opportunity to secure a back take last time out against Xiao but fell off the top.
Defensively, he’s had some struggles as he’s been pitted against a handful of wrestler/grapplers back regionally.
He dropped the 1st rounds to Paneitz and Huff but was still counter wrestling effectively and working back to the feet which eventually gassed out both opponents, and he went on to win those fights.
His biggest struggles came against Guerriero where he was taken down a bunch of times and got stuck against the fence for the majority of that fight, but was able to edge a split decision based on clinching damage and some of the exchanges they had on the feet as Guerriero didn’t really do anything outside of holding onto him.
Overall, he’s a competent ground fighter that could take advantage of guys who don’t come proper on the floor, but he’ll also most likely struggle with better wrestlers of a UFC level.
How it plays out: This is where I’d favor Le. Despite not thinking he’s anything special as a wrestler, he is the better one here across from Bolanos who’s only stuffing TDs at 42% through his first three UFC fights. Additionally, Le’s shown he can take the back and Bolanos has given up those positions like clockwork throughout his career – not to mention that Le is 3-0 to the SUB and Bolanos is 0-2 to the SUB in their pro careers.
Interesting fight and pretty solid matchmaking from the UFC. While acknowledging some improvements from Bolanos, I’m still not a huge fan of his game as a guy who will fight within the margins and has ground deficiencies – coupled with the fact that he has no real good wins. On the flip side, I’m still skeptical of Le as a UFC talent and he has some similar issues to Bolanos. In terms of the matchup, I just see this being a high-variance fight where I side more with Bolanos on the feet but more with Le on the ground. I’ll take Le for the upset.
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On DraftKings, I don’t think this fight is a must target but I can make the case for either side.
Le would be my primary interest at 7.7k, with a more grappling oriented style, I could at least see him exceeding value in a win. I don’t think he’s particularly good though, nor high paced, so there’s absolutely a chance we get something like 60 sig. strikes and two takedowns in a win, and Le still only puts up a mid 70s score.
Luke did mention that Bolanos has been hurt more often than Le which is interesting because the finishing metrics won’t really back up Le having a legit chance here. Le is only +450 to win ITD which is very poor. He does have KOs on his record though.
I have mixed feelings about Le. I don’t mind him at 7.7k. I think he can win the fight. I think he does have a path for upside but I don’t think Le reaching a ceiling is the most likely outcome, even in a win.
But he’s a solid value in a near pick’em at 7.7k, whereas once you pay down to even Marcos at 7.5k, you’re suddenly getting a +165 dog. So Le is kind of that cut off to where he could realistically win the fight, and nearly everyone priced below him is simply likely to lose.
With some wrestling equity on top of it, I don’t mind Le as a secondary target and I will treat him as such. I wouldn’t expect to be significantly overweight to the field though.
Bolanos at 8.5k is more expensive than I’d like to pay, and he’ll probably need a knockout.
He will carry mild wrestling equity but I don’t think offensive wrestling will be a major part of his game here. The primary thing to look at would be that Le just got knocked out by Xiao, and Bolanos is a career kickboxer.
Bolanos is +170 to win ITD which is decent, and it shows some finishing equity. He’s viable as a secondary, upside target, hoping he can score an early KO.
It does feel like a major risk to me though. The fight should be slow paced, and Le is pretty durable in general. Le might be able to control Bolanos for stretches. It just feels like a super thin window for Bolanos to reach a ceiling, but he’ll also likely be very low owned, so there will be a unique factor tied in as well.
I don’t hate Bolanos as a contrarian target for some KO upside but I don’t consider him a particularly strong play, with major downside risk, and I’ll likely be quite light myself.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Le by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Thomas Petersen vs. Don’Tale Mayes
Fight Odds: Petersen -263, Mayes +217
Odds to Finish: -105
DraftKings Salaries: Petersen 8.9k, Mayes 7.3k
Weight Class: HW
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Don’Tale Mayes is a three-time Contender Series alum who eventually earned a contract on his final go around back in 2019. But he’s by and large struggled over the last five years and is coming off back to back losses – he’s 4-6 in the UFC and 11-8 as a pro. Thomas Petersen’s a fellow Contender Series alum who’s still getting his feet in the UFC and MMA in general. He’s getting a relatively quick turnaround after being put down by Shamil Gaziev in February – he’s 1-2 in the UFC and 9-3 as a pro.
The striking component:
Mayes is also a big dude at heavyweight standing 6’6” with an 81” reach. But he’s also a guy that kind of falls into the sloppy heavyweight category as he’ll load most of what he throws as more of a hook/overhand guy, but will pop the jab out here and there.
One of the problems with Mayes is that his gas tank isn’t the best and everything he throws is largely with intent or just heavy action strikes when he throws. He’ll throw a lot of power kicks and spinning attacks which also lack process or technical acumen and can be very predictable.
Statistically, his offensive metrics aren’t good, landing 3.5 SLpM at 43% but he does land 4.7 at distance which is a bit better. I just don’t like the “looping” nature of his game especially given his defensive metrics – 3.8 SApM defending at 46% and 4.9 DApM at 52%.
He did take an absolute shelling from Gane and still managed to almost go the distance, which does need to be commended in some regard, but he did get knocked down. He also got knocked down by Abdelwahab, which wasn’t the best of looks as a base wrestler with limited striking experience. He got beat up in the clinch by Sakai which resulted in him losing that decision. In his defense, he’s not a guy that’s going to just quit though.
Not much happened in the Arlovski fight until Mayes landed the big bomb halfway through the fight. The striking was competitive in both Nascimento fights but Nascimento did slightly better work.
Overall, Mayes’ striking performances have been a bit all over the board as he kind of just obliges his opponents in the style of fight they want and as a result, he’s never overtly separated on minutes in the UFC.
Petersen’s a base wrestler but we’re starting to build a bigger sample of him on the feet. He hasn’t always been the most active guy but when he does throw, it’s usually a strong left followed by a flurry of other strikes to primarily close distance.
However, he has shown pop with that left hand which has floored a few guys early in the past.
It was really his fight with Acosta to where we learned some more. Similarly, he had some success in those bursts, but Acosta started to chip away at him as the fight progressed when he couldn’t finish him. It was the straight shots of Acosta and the jab to both the head and body that gave Peterson the biggest issues – a straight shot eventually floored him late in the 3rd.
Contextually, it’s not a bad loss though considering what Acosta’s been able to do so far in the UFC.
However, we additionally saw the straight shots from Pogues give Peterson issues where he was effectively outstruck through the first couple rounds – Peterson had a better 3rd round though where he was able to win there on the feet.
But against Usman, he showed some more progression as he generally threw more than in past fights, outlanding Usman 72-61 at distance. While the numbers were competitive, Petersen was landing the better shots and also landed at 55% versus Usman at 34%. I thought his head movement looked better and he was keeping a higher guard –in general, he just looked a lot more present and comfortable.
Overall, Usman isn’t a great talent but on paper, he was supposed to have the striking advantage in that fight so it’s good to see some maturation standing from Petersen, in addition to his cardio looking better than in the past. He’s still developing as a striker in totality though and may continue to struggle with more explosive parties.
Most recently, I don’t think he looked terrible early against Gaziev but got blasted with a straight shot, putting him down.
How it plays out: Off the top, Mayes will realize a healthy size advantage of 5” in height and 7” in reach. He should serve as the better striker here that we have more extended distance time for, and is the bigger hitter of the two. But as noted, Mayes doesn’t really separate from anyone on the feet as he’s poor defensively with variable volume patterns. So, I do think Petersen is live to be competitive standing, and him hurting Mayes isn’t out of the realm of possibilities either. Nonetheless, I would favor Mayes standing as the bigger guy with more critical hit upside.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Mayes hasn’t shown much offensive wrestling upside in his career really outside of his fight with Josh Parisian. He went 6/8 on TDs, controlled Parisian for nearly the entire fight and finished him off with GNP late.
We did see Mayes finish Sipe on DWCS with ground strikes but he didn’t land any conventional TDs – he was able to find his way into top position after hurting him.
But his overall offensive metrics are lackluster, landing 0.6 TDs per 15 minutes at 38%.
Defensively, Mayes stuffs TDs at 57% and has been finished on the ground in 4/8 pro losses (3 via SUB, 1 via GNP) as his general bottom game isn’t very good.
He was taken down three times on four attempts by Abdelwahab and controlled for nearly half the fight – ultimately being the factor in him losing the fight despite it officially being turned to a NC, but Abdelwahab is a good wrestler.
He also severely struggled in the clinch grappling with Sakai, and got laid on for the better part of 15 minutes by Gaziev with really no answer to get up.
Most recently, he got taken down immediately and leg locked in a minute by Walker.
Overall, it’s hard to project Mayes to proactively wrestle given one anomalous performance, but he can be effective should he get to top positions. At the end of the day though, he’s being out controlled by his opponents at a 2:1 ratio and is a ground liability.
Petersen comes from a wrestling background where he was a two-time high school state champion in his native Minnesota and eventually went on to wrestle in college at North Dakota State and Iowa Central.
The large majority of his fights have gone essentially the same way – Petersen looks to time his entries with blast doubles, body lock trips or single legs to get his opponents to the mat early and often.
From there, he’ll look to prioritize wrestle rides to slide to the back of opponents or take mount to which he pounds guys out.
He’s only a BJJ blue belt but was able to pick up his 1st pro win via submission on the Contender Series with a keylock – as noted, he has taken the back before but hasn’t threatened much with submissions.
So, while Peterson has looked largely dominant in his relatively short career, it needs to be noted that he’s by and large fought bums who can’t wrestle at all.
But I still rate Petersen’s wrestling well as one doesn’t wrestle for a D-1 program or one of the best JUCO programs in the nation if they aren’t up to the task.
He didn’t realize much success on Pogues or Usman in those fights although he was able to get both guys down – both have been historically stronger TD defenders which needs to be noted though.
He took Gaziev down recently but wasn’t able to keep him there – Gaziev’s a big guy and difficult to grapple though.
Defensively, I don’t think I’ve ever seen him shot on (at least with any real commitment), on the bottom or threatened with viable submission attempts so Petersen as a defensive floor commodity is a complete question mark.
Overall, with Petersen coming from a stronger wrestling background, it should give him advantages in the UFC because a lot of guys can’t wrestle at the weight class. But we now have a building sample of Petersen when he hasn’t been able to just steamroll with his wrestling, he’s lost.
How it plays out: Despite some of the questions of Petersen on the bottom, Mayes doesn’t project to be wrestling here and isn’t a good wrestler to begin with where I’d be shocked if he was the first guy to take Petersen down. Petersen should have a high ground ceiling here as the far superior wrestler, coupled with Mayes’ historics – virtually every UFC loss he’s had has had a negative ground element against him. Mayes may be able to put up some early resistance and use the fence to get up, but I don’t have much faith in him in extended ground sequences where he’s live to get controlled extensively or finished.
Mayes has a few advantages in this fight being pro experience, size and power but that’s about where the buck stops. His upside is really just tied to a knockout or hurting Petersen in multiple rounds which isn’t out of the realm of possibility as Petersen has now been KO’d twice. But it’s also a situation of wondering how long the fight is going to be on the feet for Mayes to realize his equity – probably not super long. I understand Petersen’s wrestling has been somewhat muzzled through his early UFC run but he’s now getting a guy in Mayes who’s far easier to grapple than his prior three opponents. Petersen should get the job done here at a decent clip if he can avoid the errant shot.
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On DraftKings, Peterson is going to be a viable target at 8.9k due to his wrestling dependency.
The primary issue is that he’s not a fantastic finisher, and he’s still only +200 to win ITD in a fight that’s -135 to go the full 15 minute distance. At HW, that’s pretty concerning.
It also backs up Petersen’s only UFC win scoring 77 points, despite landing two takedowns. He is simply not a guarantee to hit a ceiling, even with wrestling success.
With that said, Petersen only earned one minute of control in that win, and in theory, he could earn 10 minutes of control against Mayes. So I actually think his upside is much more realistic to hit in this particular matchup than past ones.
From a projection standpoint, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Petersen pick up a decision, land three takedowns with eight minutes of control, and land an additional 80-100 total strikes. That would put him in the 80-90 range. At 8.9k it starts to become viable, but most likely, it’s still not enough.
Essentially, it makes Petersen a viable secondary target but not a primary target. If he can secure a ground based finish at +200 ITD, he can absolutely surpass 100 points and contend for the optimal. That outcome is not guaranteed though.
Even in a decision, Petersen can still flirt with 100 points and if he’s landing 3+ takedowns, having exposure to him makes sense given the control upside. But he’s historically not the best finisher and the fight projects to extend, so I’d wager the most likely outcome is Petersen still failing to stand out at his price tag, even in a wrestling based win.
Mayes at 7.3k is viable for HW KO upside.
Especially with Petersen coming off a KO loss, I think you just have to get some exposure to Mayes for cheap.
Mayes isn’t very good, but there are binary elements to this fight and so if Petersen is not on top of Mayes, Mayes will have a chance to be winning and potentially hurting Petersen.
Again, the fight projects to extend and so Mayes is only +325 to win ITD. This isn’t the best card for underdogs though and Petersen really isn’t proven. It’s only a secondary target and not one I’d be aiming to be overweight on, but Mayes feels like an easy click for “some” tournament exposure given it’s a relatively binary HW shitfest type of fight, and him randomly hurting Petersen is not out of the question.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Petersen by Decision (Confidence=Medium)
Juliana Miller vs. Ivana Petrovic
Fight Odds: Petrovic -225, Miller +189
Odds to Finish: +155
DraftKings Salaries: Petrovic 8.8k, Miller 7.4k
Weight Class: 125
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have the lowest of low level fights here between Ivana Petrovic and Juliana Miller.
Petrovic is a Bosnian fighter who is 7-2 professionally. I honestly was not very impressed by Petrovic on tape before her UFC debut against Luana Carolina where she was a moderate favorite. I picked Carolina to beat her as an underdog and Carolina beat her pretty clearly by decision.
Petrovic just had fraud written all over her. She hadn’t beaten anyone good. She competed in Ares FC, a French MMA promotion, which isn’t that great.
Petrovic did bounce back after her loss to Carolina though and defeated Na Liang by ground finish in the third round. That doesn’t really impress me much though because Na Liang is terrible and one of the most likely fighters to collapse in the UFC.
Petrovic is basically a grappler. She can kind of shoot takedowns, get some control, and work for submissions. I guess she is capable of outgrappling low tier UFC level competition like she did against Liang. I just don’t think her wrestling is actually good though. She also isn’t a great athlete and I just question how good she actually is. I thought she lost a regional fight vs Marta Waliczek. Furthermore, she was losing to Alexandra Tekenah but then got a RNC with 17 seconds left.
As a striker, Petrovic doesn’t look good. Standing out of the southpaw stance, she can throw an occasional one two and a leg kick, but I don’t think striking will be a real path to victory for her at this level. I have seen her dropped before and I question her athleticism and volume. Carolina outlanded her at distance 27-16, and actually landed one takedown on Petrovic and obtained six minutes of control.
I basically just don’t think Petrovic is very good and think she will be limited to out grappling very weak grapplers in the UFC. She is a borderline striking liability and it even looks like she can be controlled on the mat herself.
I will say though that Petrovic looked a little better than I expected against Jamey-Lyn Horth even in a loss. Horth is not very good, but she is big and physical. I expected Horth to win that easier and I bet Horth, but it was close. Horth isn’t good either though. Petrovic actually won the control battle and obtained 7:45 of control. She also looked a little better in the striking than I expected. Don’t get me wrong, I still do not think Petrovic is good at all. However, she can functionally wrestle bad fighters.
Petrovic will be taking on Julianna Miller. Miller is 3-3 professionally and is 28 years old.
Miller made her way to the UFC by winning the Ultimate Fighter. She won the finale against Brogan Walker by outgrappling Walker for a couple of rounds and then eventually finishing Walker with ground-and-pound.
Miller then took on Veronica Hardy in her UFC debut and lost as a -400 favorite. Miller was outstruck by Hardy at range and was also outwrestled, and taken down four times and controlled often. It was a very poor performance by Miller.
Miller most recently took on Luana Santos and was knocked out in round one after some chaotic striking exchanges where Miller instantly gassed.
It’s been a tough run for Miller. I mostly consider her a grappler and she competes in grappling tournaments. I believe she is a brown belt. Most of her early pro wins and TUF wins came on the mat and generally by submission.
Miller is long and lanky and likes to use a body lock takedown to get opponents down, and then look to advance position and throw ground-and-pound or hunt for submissions. Body locks are basically her only takedown.
Miller is a decent BJJ player but her offensive wrestling isn’t great and she can lose position on the mat. She sometimes will just play guard on bottom too which isn’t good. She was controlled for eight minutes against Hardy.
Miller also can just fall over while attempting body lock takedowns which she did against Hardy several times. She can also be taken down and held down. She has a fine guard and won’t easily be finished on the mat, but she can get stuck on her back for too long.
Miller’s striking is also green. Getting knocked out by Santos was a concern. Hardy also used movement to out slick her. Miller is at least aggressive though and can swing a little bit. However, she isn’t the most technical striker.
I basically just think Miller is a girl who isn’t very good. However, she can probably outgrapple and outhustle low level competition. I do think she will at least try very hard for 15 minutes with good cardio. She just isn’t very good and she is flawed defensively, both on the feet and on the mat as she can be hit, taken down, and controlled.
As far as this matchup goes, this is so low level but I lean Petrovic slightly because I think she is a better control wrestler. Just seeing Miller get taken down and controlled easily by Hardy was a bad sign. I definitely think Petrovic can take Miller down a few times, get some control time, and bank some rounds. So she is the pick and that’s really the only reason why.
I still don’t trust Petrovic though. She is a low level talent and I could easily see Miller having some success. On the feet, this is really ugly. I don’t even know who I would favor. Maybe Miller because she is more aggressive? However, this is truly some of the lower level striking exchanges you will ever see. In a fight like this, anyone could win.
I could also see Miller threatening with some takedowns and submission attempts. Petrovic hasn’t faced many submission grapplers and I have seen her in deep submission attempts. Miller will at least attempt submissions and in a low level fight anything could happen.
This is just a low level fight so I could see Miller finding a way to win or Petrovic just finding a way to lose. I do think Petrovic is the better control wrestler on paper though so I will pick her to win. I doubt she finishes Miller but this is low level so who knows.
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On DraftKings, I have some interest due to the absolute lack of talent on both sides.
Miller has some Chelsea Chandler elements to her game. Like, it is insane how any fighter could be a professional and look that poor in striking exchanges. Miller also gassed out in like two minutes in her last fight and died, and I am shocked she is still on the roster.
I had some hopes in her coming into the UFC as she’s a 10th planet grappler and actually trained at the San Diego gym where I used to train. Her submission grappling is clearly the best part of her game. However, other parts of her game feel non-existent.
Miller has taken two years off now, which I think she absolutely needed. I have no idea whether she’s improved at all, but she couldn’t be worse. I highly doubt her striking will be much better but if her cardio is up to standard, she can still win some fights.
Petrovic is just a total meh fighter. She isn’t great at anything and there’s no reason to be excited by her. However, she can land the occasional takedown and I do think she’s a better wrestler than Miller.
The winner of this matchup is going to have a decent floor, like the Chandler matchup last week, just due to the massive gaps in technique and defense. If Miller wins, it’s going to come from grappling pace, which should give her legit upside. But if Miller loses, she has zero defense and potentially weak cardio that could mean a strong score for Petrovic as well.
Petrovic is priced up to 8.8k which is more expensive than I’d like to pay. I actually do think she’s viable though. She could land 3-4 takedowns in a win, with 5-10 minutes of control, and at that point you probably want some exposure.
My big concern is that Petrovic just isn’t a great striker and I’m unsure if she can really threaten Miller in that way. I also think Miller is the better sub grappler so I’m not sure she can finish her even if she gets control on the mat. Petrovic is only +215 to win ITD which is still OK.
I assume Petrovic will be low owned though at 8.8k, priced nearby other stronger options and bigger names. If she is semi-contrarian, I do like Petrovic for that purpose.
I consider Petrovic extremely risky, but I think she has a pretty solid grappling floor in a win, and therefore potential to exceed value at 8.8k because of it. Given some of Miller’s issues and time off, it wouldn’t be a complete shock to see a finish either, so I honestly don’t mind Petrovic as a secondary target in general.
Miller at 7.4k interests me as well.
Petrovic has already been taken down by all three of her UFC opponents, and that’s basically all Miller will want to do. If Miller gets on top, she can score a ton of points. And I’ve seen Petrovic put in some bad positions already on the ground that make me think Miller has some classic, low-level WMMA sub equity as well.
Miller is only +550 to win ITD but I don’t think there should be that big of a gap between her finishing line and Petrovic’s. Miller is a crafty sub grappler. I really wouldn’t be shocked at like a Miller armbar from guard.
Also, the two years off do give me some additional hope for Miller to improve. Again, if her cardio is fine, she might just be able to land a couple of takedowns, and win some scrambles and win this fight. Petrovic not having elite striking should make her a bit more comfortable, although I think Miller will get taken down either way.
At 7.4k, I’m willing to play Miller as a secondary target. She scored 115 in her only UFC win and I don’t think she’ll be very popular this week. She’s clearly a risk, and she might look awful, but it’s a low-level fight with grappling upside, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the fight is competitive.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Petrovic by Decision (Confidence=Low)