UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena (5/10/25)

Note: Please read the full analysis, that is much more important than who I pick to win. The confidence relates to my pick to win, not the path to victory. Picks are NOT bets. Matchup breakdowns are written by Brett unless otherwise noted, and all DraftKings analysis is written by Brett. Both Technical Tim and Luke Lampe will also contribute to matchup breakdowns.

---

MAIN CARD

Belal Muhammad vs. Jack Della Maddalena

Fight Odds: Muhammad -188, Maddalena +160

Odds to Finish: +130

DraftKings Salaries: Muhammad 8.7k, Maddalena 7.5k

Weight Class: 170

Now the welterweight champion, Belal Muhammad will have his first official title defense on Saturday against the dangerous boxer in Jack Della Maddalena.

Muhammad largely cruised to a victory over Leon Edwards last July, taking him down nine times en route to a clear decision. Edwards did land a takedown in round three and was able to secure the back to win that round, but otherwise had few moments over the course of the fight while Muhammad was able to earn more than 12 minutes of control time.

I’ve always been a fan of Muhammad, and what I like most is that he is still getting better.

I never thought he would be the champion of the division because he’s not the greatest athlete in the world, nor is he the greatest finisher. However, Muhammad has clearly leveled up as an athlete over the years and his physicality is now very much on par with the better athletes in this division.

I’ve also always considered Muhammad to be one of the most intelligent fighters in the division as well. He fights with smart game plans, and he has strong round winning tools with exceptional cardio.

Since training with the Dagestani boys, I also think Muhammad has improved as a wrestler and grappler. He’s always been good, but he’s clearly gotten better, and now averages 2.28 takedowns per 15 minutes. It’s not even that high of a rate, but we’ve seen him really lean on wrestling in some recent fights, landing 9, 5 and 7 takedowns against Edwards, Luque and Thompson.

As a boxer, I also think Muhammad is quite strong. He is simply not a real knockout threat and even with his TKO win over Sean Brady, Muhammad couldn’t knock him down.

But he’s a strongly paced boxer, and his metrics are solid, where he lands 4.39 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 3.48 per minute with a 57 percent defensive rate. He landed 132 sig. strikes over five rounds against Gilbert Burns recently, as well as 80 sig. strikes in less than two rounds against Brady.

Purely at distance, Muhammad is landing 5.5 strikes per minute while absorbing 4.5 per minute, which are both better than divisional averages.

Defensively is where he’s had some concerns. Muhammad has only lost three times in 18 UFC fights and he’s been knocked down six times in those losses. To his credit, he survived getting knocked down three times by Jouban and twice by Neal to only lose decisions. And to his credit again, those fights were a long time ago, taking place in 2019, and 2016.

Muhammad has clearly leveled up across the board since then, and now he’s an elite fighter. He’s an elite round winner with the ability to compete in all areas of the game. He has legit cardio to go a hard five rounds.

He’s still going to get into some trouble against more physical opponents, and I do think he can still be hurt. He won’t always run away with his boxing or his wrestling but unless you put him out, which is hard to do, Belal will be there in your face for five rounds and it makes him one of the toughest outs in the division.

Jack Della Maddalena is one of the more fun prospects in the division and someone I’ve been a fan of since he debuted in the UFC in 2022. He’s rattled off seven consecutive wins and is still undefeated in the promotion.

Maddalena is primarily a boxer and a striker, and that’s where he’s going to continue having success in the sport. He’s landing 6.74 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 4.27 per minute with a 66 percent defensive rate.

Maddalena has very quick hands and is an explosive puncher, and he’s earned six knockdowns in his past seven fights, which has contributed to four knockout wins and one submission.

I think it’s fair to say that Maddalena can compete with anyone in the division in a pure boxing fight. He’s fast paced, with good volume, and he’s very effective. We’ve seen him top out at 105 sig. strikes against Holland and another 108 on DWCS.

He’s also shown to be very opportunistic. He was losing the fight to Gilbert Burns last time out but landed a flying knee that hurt Burns late in the fight, and swarmed on him to secure the TKO stoppage. Maddalena is simply a dangerous striker.

I would be a little surprised if he beat Belal Muhammad though.

Primarily, I still think Maddalena has some wrestling gaps that give Muhammad a very clear advantage in this fight.

Even dating back to his DWCS performance, Maddalena gave up a takedown to Ange Loosa who put him in a deep submission attempt. Ramazan Emeev took him down and threatened for a sub. Bassil Hafez took him down three times and nearly won the fight… losing via split decision.

Most recently, Burns took him down seven times and was up on the scorecards before that late flying knee TKO.

Maddalena defends takedowns at 70 percent in total, and I don’t really think he can stop Muhammad from taking him down.

I do like that Maddalena will try to scramble though. He doesn’t just sit on his back and give up rounds. He showed a good ability to avoid dominant positions against Burns, which ultimately allowed him to come back and win the fight.

At the same time, his first-level takedown defense doesn’t look impressive to me, and I’ve seen him give up his back multiple times while standing up. I don’t think one or two takedowns from Belal will be enough to win the fight, but Belal is pretty strong at getting in on the hips, and chaining takedowns together.

When Maddalena scrambles up, I think Belal can just ride his back and keep dragging him down to the mat for eventual control. I also think Belal can take his back and earn more dominant control that way.

With that said, I saw a recent quote from Belal saying he’s not going to attempt a single takedown in this fight… so take it for what it’s worth. I still consider Belal to be one of the smartest fighters in the division but obviously if he were to abandon his wrestling path, he’d be choosing to minimize his win condition as well.

Really, this is just a situation where Maddalena can obviously compete with Muhammad and/or win rounds, and/or hurt him in striking exchanges. But Muhammad can compete there as well, and he’s a quality boxer with good pacing and cardio.

Muhammad seems to have all the grappling upside to me though. Maddalena has landed one single takedown in the UFC and I highly doubt he can do anything to Belal on the mat. 

So Muhammad simply has a whole additional path to victory where he could potentially win the fight dominantly. And even if Maddalena gets the pure striking fight he wants, he’s still absorbing 5.5 strikes per minute at distance and in his only extended striking fight in the UFC, he won a close split-decision over Kevin Holland who outlanded him 127 to 105.

The other fights in Maddalena’s career are largely impressive, quick finishes, but nothing that really makes me sure he’s going to beat Belal.

I see Maddalena having some early KO equity, and probably being a slight favorite on a pure round by round basis in a boxing match, but not a heavy favorite. And I’m not convinced his cardio will hold up down the stretch, especially if he’s forced to wrestle in between.

Belal’s going to be semi-vulnerable at times on the feet but he should be able to stay safe in wrestling and clinch positions, and do enough to win a few rounds and retain the title.

—

On DraftKings, it’s important to remember we have two five-round fights on this slate, but I do consider both sides of this main event to be among the highest overall priorities based on the pacing.

Especially on the Muhammad side at 8.7k. He has the ability to totally break the slate with his wrestling path, if he goes to it, and I think he will be among the highest owned fighters on the slate overall.

He’s coming off a 149 point win over Edwards, and we’ve also seen him score 132 in a three-round decision with wrestling. I don’t necessarily think he dominates on the mat and makes it look simple, but I do think takedowns will be available to him and I think he could easily rack up another 5+ over 25 minutes with 10+ minutes of control time.

Simply put, if Muhmmad chooses to wrestle and he wins the fight, he is extremely likely to be on the optimal lineup. He has some of the highest upside on the slate overall and could be viewed as an outright priority.

The downside would be in a situation where he does not wrestle, which he has already stated he won’t. Again, take it with a grain of salt, but just worth mentioning. We saw Muhammad avoid wrestling in his five-round fight against Gilbert Burns, and only score 83 points over five rounds.

With this scoring system, that is the clear downside in choosing to strike. I don’t think Muhammad finishes JDM at a high rate, and he’s only +400 to win ITD. Even if the fight is super fun and Belal lands 140 sig. strikes, that’s only a mid-80s score in a decision.

So if Muhammad does project to be 50+% owned, it’s fair to pivot away at times to be unique, hoping he wins a striking based decision. I would be shocked if he doesn’t wrestle though. It would be an all-time dumb move, even if he wins, as wrestling would still open up his striking.

And even with 2-3 takedowns, you’re suddenly scoring an additional 15+ points with control added on, which could easily push Belal into the high 90s or low 100s. At 8.7k, he feels like the most obvious play on the slate to me and I feel semi-obligated to load up on Belal.

Maddalena is priced at 7.5k and if he wins, it will come from striking and/or damage.

He actually has a better ITD line at +220 which is funny because it’s an indicator of how poor of a finisher Belal is. Finishing him won’t come easily though, and a JDM decision is still in play if it comes with a few competitive striking rounds.

There is some bust risk for Maddalena in that sense too, as he might land 140 sig. strikes in a decision and score in the mid-80s. Maybe that’s not enough at 7.5k.

I also think he could land upwards of 150 sig. strikes over 25 minutes, and obviously, a knockdown could come into play as well. So he has 100+ point upside in a win, and I think he’s worth targeting as a secondary play because of it.

Maddalena should be very popular given his undefeated UFC record and popularity, and he’s not even that big of a dog. Especially with Saint Denis priced in, stars and scrubs feel like the most exciting lineups to create, and I expect a lot of people will pair Maddalena with BSD/Jasudavicius in those types of constructions.

I still lean toward the idea that he should be a bigger dog here, and so I’m not particularly excited to play him. He also has a pretty weak floor and could easily land 60 or so strikes in a decision loss, which wouldn’t feel great.

But in a win, Maddalena should exceed value and contend for the optimal. I won’t be aiming to be overweight to the field but given the odds and his effective striking, he’s a pretty solid secondary target on this slate.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Muhammad by Decision (Confidence=Medium)

Valentina Shevchenko vs. Manon Fiorot

Fight Odds: Fiorot -136, Shevchenko +118

Odds to Finish: +215

DraftKings Salaries: Fiorot 8.5k, Shevchenko 7.7k

Weight Class: 125

With the Alexa Grasso saga behind us, Valentina Shevchenko will take on a new challenger for the flyweight title in top contender Manon Fiorot.

Fiorot is 12-1 professionally and she’s won each of her seven fights in the UFC, including five consecutive by decision.

Fiorot is one of the best distance strikers in the division, and she’s been highly effective throughout her short career. She’s currently landing 6.26 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 3.77 per minute, with a 68 percent defensive rate which is pretty phenomenal.

Her opponents have trouble closing the distance because Fiorot has a lot of range-finding strikes and good footwork, and she will evade if necessary, rather than engage in a brawl where she could be vulnerable.

I don’t think Fiorot is the most dangerous knockout artist in the division but she’s effective, and fights at a pretty high pace, so if opponents cannot defend, they’ll consistently eat shots until they eventually get hurt. Fiorot won by TKO (officially) in both of her first two UFC bouts.

We’ve also seen Fiorot have some success on the canvas, landing 1.17 takedowns per 15 minutes. She’s not a great wrestler in total but she’s physical enough to get on top of some of the weaker grapplers in the division. She’s also defended takedowns well at 93 percent, and we’ve seen almost no time from her on her back.

The one sample from the UFC that we have of Fiorot getting taken down was against Jennifer Maia, who very briefly tripped her against the cage, but Fiorot reversed position immediately.

In her most recent fight, Fiorot was actually the dog to Erin Blanchfield who projected to fight at a high pace and wrestle, but there were also questions regarding the skill of Blanchfield’s wrestling. Blanchfield surprisingly only attempted three takedowns, but she was shut down all three times and Fiorot largely cruised to a decision, outlanding Blanchfield 172 to 130.

It’s honestly a bit of a surprise to see Fiorot comfortably favored over Valentina Shevchenko this weekend, considering Shevchenko is one of the greatest female fighters of all-time, and she proved in her trilogy fight over Alexa Grasso that she is still more than capable of dominating her competition.

Shevchenko, like Fiorot, is a pretty elite distance striker and has always carried incredible striking metrics.

She isn’t the highest volume fighter, but she lands 3.16 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 2.0 per minute with a 64 percent defensive rate. She controls exchanges well and rarely puts herself in a position to be hit.

As her career has progressed, Shevchenko has relied more and more upon her wrestling, which is very arguably the best in the division. Shevchenko lands 2.74 takedowns per 15 minutes and her top game is dominant. She loves securing the crucifix and can rain down ground strikes.

Prior to her trilogy with Grasso, Shevchenko had won via TKO on the mat against Katlyn Cerminara, Jessica Andrade and Lauren Murphy in dominant fashion.

This trilogy against Grasso definitely showed that Shevchenko is vulnerable though. Despite cruising through the first matchup, Grasso was able to take Shevchenko’s back late and lock up a submission. In the rematch, Grasso had a couple of big moments that helped her earn a draw.

However, last time out, Shevchenko got back to her old ways and took Grasso down eight times, en route to 16 minutes of control time and a 50-45 unanimous decision.

First and foremost, the question needs to be asked whether Fiorot can pass the wrestling test of Shevchenko, to which I do not know the answer.

Fiorot has looked strong defending takedowns, but there really isn’t a comparison to Shevchenko in this division, and certainly there’s been no comparison to those who Fiorot has fought.

Looking through Fiorot’s competition, she has not yet fought a wrestler I would even classify as “good.” Blanchfield is a very good grappler but a pretty poor wrestler, with no physicality in her game. Rose Namajunas isn’t a particularly good wrestler either.

Otherwise, she’s fought Jennifer Maia, Mayra Bueno Silva, and Tabatha Ricci who was fighting up a division.

I don’t think it necessarily means she will easily get taken down by Shevchenko, but I also don’t think her 93 percent takedown defense means anything as it relates to Shevchenko.

My bigger concern would be that if Shevchenko can land takedowns, she might just be able to crush Fiorot from top position. Fiorot doesn’t have a deep grappling pedigree and there isn’t really a sample of her fighting from her back. Generally that’s more of a red flag than a positive.

So basically, I think there’s a reasonable chance Shevchenko can simply win this fight with wrestling. In her last eight fights, Shevchenko has averaged 4.6 takedowns landed, so it is clearly a priority for her. She is a strong clinch fighter and should be able to grab hold of Fiorot at times. We have to understand the possibility that Shevchenko can turn those attempts into another 3-5 takedowns, and with them, she can win three rounds.

Obviously, Fiorot’s best chance to win the fight will be at distance, and my gut feeling is that she probably will hold a slight edge there, which will be enough to take this decision.

However, the fight more projects as a super-competitive, slow-paced, defensive affair, so I’m not extremely confident in Fiorot there either.

Fiorot certainly has more volume upside of the two. She attempts strikes at a far higher rate than Shevchenko, which I think is the primary reason to favor her at distance. That, plus her general fight trajectory. For what it’s worth Fiorot is 35 years old though, and Shevchenko is 37.

The issue is that Shevchenko doesn’t absorb strikes at a high rate, so it almost doesn’t matter. It’s not as if Fiorot is going to throw and land strikes whenever she wants. As a comparison, Fiorot landed 170 sig. strikes against Blanchfield who defended strikes at 53 percent in that matchup.

Shevchenko is absorbing 2.0 per minute at 64 percent. Her career worst distance performance came against Amanda Nunes in 2017 where she absorbed 85 distance strikes. Otherwise, she absorbed 59 at distance against Jedrzejczyk and 51/50 against Grasso at distance.

So this just doesn’t project to be a fight where Fiorot is going to be able to land a ton of strikes. Purely at distance, she can probably top the 50-60 mark, and maybe even reach the standard 100+, but that would be a career worst by Shevchenko by a very large margin. If Shevchenko is having any success at all, she’s slowing the pace down dramatically, limiting exchanges, and wrestling. Those are all going to limit Fiorot’s striking volume.

On Shevchenko’s side, I’ve always had issues with her lack of volume, and that can definitely catch up with her in this matchup if she is not able to wrestle. She is effective on a strike by strike basis but she just doesn’t attempt enough strikes to clearly win rounds.

Now facing a defensive, evasive opponent like Fiorot, I wouldn’t project Shevchenko to land a whole lot either. But as I referenced Shevchenko’s past fights, it’s worth mentioning that Fiorot doesn’t limit strikes as well. She just gave up 124 distance strikes to Blanchfield, and she was outlanded 59 to 53 at distance by Namajunas in three rounds. Even Cerminara landed 72 distance strikes.

So Fiorot profiles as a fighter who can keep up a higher pace, but also get hit more often as well. She still controls exchanges well enough to get ahead on the numbers, which I think will ultimately favor her, but the point is that because of the defensive prowess of Shevchenko, I expect to see pretty competitive and slower-paced exchanges overall.

As for picking a winner, my gut says Fiorot will find a way to win but my brain says that Shevchenko is the correct pick. At worst, Shevchenko still gets a striking matchup where she is highly competent, and there’s a chance she can just roll with wrestling as well.

If Fiorot can keep the fight upright though, I do think her pacing gives her an advantage and I think her squeezing out a few close rounds in a somewhat boring, slow-paced fight is pretty realistic.

—

On DraftKings, because of my pacing concerns, I don’t think this fight is a must target and I’m wondering if it’s one of the spots on the card where we can be unique by getting away from it.

Fiorot at 8.5k winning a decision would be the primary concern. She just scored 107 in a five-round win, but that came with 170 sig. strikes and one takedown. This fight is -275 to go the distance, and Fiorot is only projected to land around 90 significant strikes, which would still be a career worst for Shevchenko. That would only equate to a 66 point score over five rounds…

Looking at other possible outcomes, I do think Fiorot could land 1-2 takedowns even if she did nothing with them. Shevchenko shouldn’t be in real danger and Fiorot may not even want to try, but Shevchenko does defend at 71 percent and has given up the occasional takedowns. I’m not sure you can even project Fiorot for one full takedown here but 1-2 over 25 minutes is still in play. Obviously the more takedowns landed, the better for her scoring chances.

Otherwise, I’m just not totally sure. She’s +435 to win ITD. Grasso did knock Shevchenko down so I suppose a KD is viable, but it doesn’t feel like a super likely outcome. I think 120 sig. strikes are in play, but even that only equates to 78 DK points.

You could honestly sell me on the idea that Fiorot is just a bad play this week, given potentially high ownership. Yes, she has a decent floor in a main event and you probably want exposure to her given that five-round fighters on average score more. 8.5k isn’t a bad price to pay as well, so she’ll fit easily into lineups.

This just isn’t a great matchup for her to score points. I think the fight is highly likely to go the distance as it’s projected, and I don’t see a clear path to Fiorot breaking 90-100 points without a finish. I suppose I’ll just label her more of a secondary target in general on this slate, and I’d personally be willing to come in much lighter than the field based on scoring concerns, if she projects to be popular.

Shevchenko at 7.7k is the preferred option of the two due to her wrestling equity.

If she wins, I have to think takedowns are involved. Shevchenko just scored 147 DK points in her last win, and she’s topped 130 DK points numerous other times. This is also the cheapest we’ve seen Shevchenko in a long, long time.

It will still come down to her wrestling potential though, because Shevchenko has the same concerns as Fiorot. If she doesn’t wrestle successfully, she probably just loses but even in a win, Shevchenko might land 80 strikes and score 60 points in a decision. She’s only +385 to win ITD.

It’s just that she’s never won a fight without landing a takedown in the UFC, so if she wrestles and wins, she is highly likely to exceed value and there is potential for her to break the slate. I also think she could be popular with the price discount and historic ceiling, and the need for the public to play into stars and scrubs constructions.

For that reason, I consider Shevchenko a quality secondary option. At 7.7k given her pedigree, history and wrestling equity, I’m very willing to get moderate exposure to her. She also has a higher floor than Fiorot as even in a loss, she could land 60 strikes and 2-3 takedowns.

The issue is that she might lose, and might fail to wrestle, so it also makes sense to cap your exposure. In those situations, I’d lean toward coming in lighter on Fiorot and fading the fight altogether, hoping to kill off a big chunk of the field.

Ultimately, these are two secondary targets in my mind, rather than primary ones, due to the scoring environment. Shevchenko has far more DraftKings upside but she’s a real underdog for the first time in a long time, and as the fight projects to go five rounds, I have major questions about how well this fight scores.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Fiorot by Decision (Confidence=Low)

Jose Aldo vs. Aiemann Zahabi

Fight Odds: Aldo -206, Zahabi +175

Odds to Finish: +275

DraftKings Salaries: Aldo 9k, Zahabi 7.2k

Weight Class: 135

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

Hall-of-Famer Jose Aldo will be stepping back into the Octagon this weekend to face Canada’s own Aiemann Zahabi.

It was awesome to see Jose Aldo come out of retirement and beat a young gun in Jonathan Martinez last year. Aldo was an underdog in that fight and looked great. He outlanded Martinez 77-52 in significant strikes and landed the biggest shots throughout. 

Aldo most recently lost a split decision to a very tough Mario Bautista. However, Bautista basically just clinched Aldo up and didn’t really do much as he was intimidated to box with Aldo at range. Aldo looked quite sharp at range in that fight.

Aldo is a great fighter. However, I have always been a little lower on him than the MMA betting market simply because he doesn’t always produce a ton of offense. He doesn’t land many takedowns. He only lands 0.49 takedowns per 15 minutes.

Furthermore, Aldo only lands 3.62 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.72 in return.  So like I said, he doesn’t land a ton of offense which always makes me nervous as it is an unnecessary way to lose rounds. I mean the guy lost a split decision to Marlon Moraes who lands one strike per 100 years. So I think it is a reasonable concern that I have.

Aldo still has some elite parts of his game though. As a striker, he is super technical and dangerous. He has legitimate power and great boxing. Two of his last five wins have come by knockout and he recently knocked down Rob Font twice. He also showed his power vs Martinez and really shut Martinez down on the feet with his technicality and power. So he is extremely dangerous and I respect his power.

Aldo also has great defense. He defends takedowns at 92 percent and his first layer TDD is legendary. He is the only man in the UFC who has faced Merab and not surrendered a takedown. His TDD is seriously elite.

Aldo also defends strikes at 60 percent. So even though he is not always landing offense, he doesn’t absorb a ton either so he is always in the running to win his fights. He generally gets striking fights (where he thrives) as well because his TDD is so good.

I still do have a couple of other concerns with Aldo though. First, he is getting older so a decline is likely coming soon. He has looked good lately so perhaps it will be another couple of years. However, a random decline is possible. Second, he sometimes can slow down in fights. His cardio has held up in recent fights, and I thought he looked quite impressive against Jonathan Martinez, but I don’t totally trust his cardio. Finally, I know Aldo has good TDD but when he is actually taken down, he surrenders a lot of GNP. Max and Yan truly beat the breaks off of him on the mat, and I do think it is a weakness of his game that gets overlooked.

Aldo will be taking on Aiemann Zahabi who has had a super random five-fight winning streak that I don’t think anyone saw coming. He is coming off the biggest win of his career against Pedro Munhoz where he outlanded Munhoz 109-95 in significant strikes.

Zahabi also had a huge upset decision win over Javid Basharat. He outstruck Basharat and outlanded him 75-67 in significant strikes and outlanded Basharat 51-33 in head strikes.

Zahabi is very much a neutralizing striker. Zahabi lands 4.06 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.06 in return. Those aren’t great metrics but Zahabi does have some defensive skills and defends strikes at a solid 71 percent. He is capable of just competing with his opponents by minimizing their offense. He is decently technical and has shown some occasional power, and has a couple of knockout wins in the UFC. I do like that he showed more offense against Munhoz. Zahabi very much likes to counter with his boxing.

I still just personally dislike the style of Zahabi. Yes, he is technical and yes, he is fine defensively. However, he just doesn’t always throw a ton of output which makes it difficult to cleanly win decisions. I just wish he would pick up the offense a little more. He did in his last two fights though.

Zahabi is also not an effective offensive wrestler and only lands 0.16 takedowns per 15 minutes. So he is basically limited to winning fights by a decision where he likely doesn’t land a ton of strikes, or by knockout where he really isn’t extremely powerful either. Zahabi has shown good defensive wrestling though and defends takedowns at 83 percent.

Zahabi is just who he is. He is rarely going to run away with fights because his offense is simply not there. However, he is very much UFC level and capable of winning fights because he is a technically skilled fighter and is sound defensively. I feel like he can fight a ton of fighters close because he is skilled defensively so he has a high floor. However, his limited offense caps his ceiling too.

As far as this matchup goes, both guys rarely wrestle and have great tdd so we likely get a striking fight.

On the feet, both of these guys are super sound defensively and sometimes prefer to counter. So honestly, we are probably going to get a slow paced fight with a limited strike count.

I do lean Aldo a bit based on speed and power. I think he lands a bit harder than Zahabi and is more athletic as well. I think he is more likely to win by knockout or have big moments in general. In a likely competitive striking fight, big moments will mean a lot so I will pick Aldo to get this done.

I still think this is a super competitive fight though and Aldo has shown an unwillingness to throw offense before. So Zahabi could steal a close fight here if he is just active in the right moments. I honestly think Aldo -230 is a bit steep just because this looks to be a low output striking fight that is likely to go to the cards. 

Overall though I will pick Aldo. I think he is more talented when he is at his best and I think he will be landing a bit harder. This is competitive though and has split decision written all over it.

—

On DraftKings, this isn’t a fight I’m particularly excited about and I wouldn’t expect either side to be popular.

I haven’t played Aldo on DraftKings in years, honestly, and it’s largely worked out in my favor. Excluding his main event win, Aldo’s recent victories have scored 74, 76, 60 and 80. His last big score came against Jeremy Stephens in 2018 where he knocked him out in the first round.

At this point in Aldo’s career, he just needs an early knockout. And it may actually have to come in round one because by round two, he just won’t have produced much offense. It makes Aldo an extremely boom or bust target.

This matchup sets up horribly for Aldo on paper, as Zahabi doesn’t take a lot of risks and is defensively sound. Aldo is +415 to win ITD which is really poor for a 9k price tag.

With that said, Zahabi was knocked out badly by Ricardo Ramos in 2017. It was early in his career and it was in round three off a spinning back elbow, so it’s a pretty random result. But ultimately, I do think it’s possible Zahabi can be hurt again.

If you want to bet on Aldo as a contrarian play, I think that’s OK. This range is pretty weak and Aldo may be very low owned. He just doesn’t rate out well and has such a thin window to reach a ceiling, that with a limited number of lineups, it’s simply not worth the investment for me.

I can understand using him as a sprinkle as a way to be unique in this range, where technically he still does have a path to a KO. It’s just not the outcome that I would expect and the much more likely result is a complete bust at this price tag.

Zahabi at 7.2k is viable but at the same time, his upside is just atrocious.

He has almost no wrestling equity or finishing equity with a +550 ITD line, so you have to expect a low-scoring decision to be the path to victory. I actually do think Zahabi winning by decision is pretty realistic though, which complicates things.

Zahabi has scored 74, 61 and 52 in his last three decisions and if I had to project it, I would lean toward him scoring near 60 points in a win. For the price, Zahabi isn’t terrible and he clearly has more win equity than Andrade and Prepolec priced below him. Using him as a secondary price play is somewhat viable.

At the same time, I could understand coming in super light on Zahabi or fading him outright due to ceiling concerns. I’d be shocked if he won ITD or landed a ton of strikes, so even 70 points feels like a longshot. There is much more upside baked into the mid and upper 7k range so that would be my preference, but Zahabi does have reasonable win equity and is viable for that reason alone.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Aldo by Decision (Confidence=Low)

Alexa Grasso vs. Natalia Silva

Fight Odds: Silva -241, Grasso +201

Odds to Finish: +290

DraftKings Salaries: Silva 8.8k, Grasso 7.4k

Weight Class: 125

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

We have a potential title eliminator here as Natalia Silva gets a huge opportunity to take on former champion Alexa Grasso.

I am really excited to see Natalia Silva back in the cage. I have been impressed with her first six UFC fights, and I think she is a solid prospect in this weight class.

Silva is best as a striker. You saw it in the regionals and in her UFC fights thus far. Silva lands 5.19 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.35 in return.

She defends strikes at a solid 64 percent. She does a very good job moving backwards to control range and countering to land her kicks. She also likes to occasionally spring into range to wing punches in the pocket. She then likes to get back to her range on the outside and start landing kicks again.

Silva is fast and has decent pop for this division. She is one of the rare women fighters who can strike going backwards, and I think she can outland the majority of this division on the feet. She also seems to have good defense in general. She looked super impressive in her last matchup against Jessica Andrade where she outlanded Andrade 117-50 in significant strikes. She completely shut Andrade down.

Silva also occasionally mixes in takedowns, mostly from the clinch, and she can float on top a bit. I don’t consider her offensive wrestling all that great and she only lands 0.40 takedowns per 15 minutes, but she is pretty physically strong and has decent upper body takedown technique. She can definitely land occasional takedowns vs below average competition.

Silva’s defensive wrestling, especially from the clinch, seems pretty strong. Her TDD overall held up against Tereza Bleda, Victoria Leonardo, and Viviane Araujo. She is currently defending takedowns at 91 percent. She also just seems to have a decent understanding of BJJ as well. She can be taken down here and there, but I consider her defensive grappling good overall.

Silva is overall a good talent. She has defensive grappling to keep the fight standing where she thrives and I think she is a title threat.

Silva will be taking on former UFC champion Alexa Grasso who is coming off an awful performance against Valentina Shevchenko where she was taken down and held down for the majority of the fight.

Grasso is basically a boxer and a pretty decent one. Grasso lands 4.19 significant strikers per minute and absorbs 3.69 in return. She has some sharp hands, and I like her game on the feet to a degree. She doesn’t have massive power, but she does land clean and can mark her opponents up. I also think Grasso is just tough as nails and extremely durable. She has good cardio too.

I do think Grasso is a bit limited though as she doesn’t really have much of a kicking arsenal and is generally reliant on her hands.

Grasso doesn’t wrestle much offensively. She only lands 0.44 takedowns per 15 minutes. So she is basically limited to winning fights on the feet. She is a capable BJJ player though and if she finds an opportunity to take the back she can make opponents pay like when she submitted Valentina Shevchenko by submission back in 2023 to win the belt.

Grasso defends takedowns at 54 percent which is okay. She can be taken down and held down as we saw in her most recent loss. She can get up at times though and I don’t think her get up game is awful. It can definitely use improvement though.

As far as this matchup goes, I do think these girls will strike. Neither attempt many takedowns and Silva’s takedown defense is very strong.

On the feet, I do think it is somewhat competitive as these girls both excel on the feet. I honestly would be shocked if this fight ended ITD as neither girl is a great finisher and both seem tough as nails.

I just think Silva has the kicking and range management advantage. Silva can land at longer ranges than Grasso and I honestly think that will allow Silva to land more volume and get ahead on the rounds. Grasso generally has to land in boxing range, and I just don’t think Grasso will get a ton of opportunities to do that as Silva will skate on the outside and land her strikes.

I also think Silva can fight going forward and backwards which will give her more of a chance to just control this fight and fight comfortably. So my guess is that Silva just controls the range, lands more especially with her kicks and occasional punching blitzes and wins a decision.

Grasso is skilled though and she is tough. I do think Grasso will land at times and this will surely go to the cards at a high rate. So maybe Grasso can win a close decision. I just think Silva has more long range weapons though so I do think she will skate to a decision victory.

—

On DraftKings, we will continue our main card theme with a fun fight that projects pretty horribly from a fantasy perspective.

Silva is priced up to 8.8k and she feels closer to a fade than anything else.

In wins, Silva has scored 79, 51, 58, 109, 85 and 85. The 109 score came with a first round KO and one of the 85 scores came with a third round KO.

Silva just doesn’t have much finishing equity though, and she is +400 to win ITD here which is really poor. Grasso has never been knocked down or knocked out, so it would be a big surprise to see that happen.

Otherwise, Silva just doesn’t have many ways to score points. The fight is -375 to go the distance and that feels like one of the better parlay legs on this card. I just can’t really come up with a reason to play Silva at 8.8k.

I suppose she’ll be very low owned, so that, combined with a super small, random chance of a KD/KO could put her into play as a contrarian option, but she’s just not a contrarian option that I like much and I really don’t see a reasonable upside case.

Grasso at 7.4k is like a slightly better (or worse) version of Aiemann Zahabi.

The only real upside I see with her is that she’s probably the better grappler here, and if she randomly finds a takedown, maybe she can take the back or find a submission. I could also see her winning a close decision but she’s still not going to land many strikes, and I would guess a win for Grasso scores in the low 60s.

Grasso is +650 to win ITD and just doesn’t rate out well, so she’s hard to prioritize in any fashion. Her floor isn’t strong and her ceiling is highly questionable.

I still think she’s viable as a pricing target, with a super low percentage outcome of grappling success.. but that’s still mostly not something I would want to bet on. I’ll likely end up with very limited exposure to her and I’d probably rather play Zahabi straight up for win equity.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Silva by Decision (Confidence=Medium)

Benoit Saint Denis vs. Kyle Prepolec

Fight Odds: Saint Denis -1000, Prepolec +700

Odds to Finish: Under 1.5 RDs -170

DraftKings Salaries: Saint Denis 9.7k, Prepolec 6.5k

Weight Class: 155

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

Originally slotted to take on Joel Alvarez, Benoit Saint Denis will now be taking on former UFC fighter Kyle Prepolec, who will be taking this fight on short notice as Alvarez pulled out earlier this week. 

Benoit Saint Denis is coming off back-to-back losses via finish against Dustin Poirier and Renato Moicano.

I have to say that Saint Denis really impressed me against Thiago Moises. I picked him to win that fight, but he looked way better than I expected. He beat the breaks out of Moises and Saint Denis’ pace was insane. Saint Denis then followed up with an impressive performance against Matt Frevola and sent Frevola to the land of wind and ghosts.

I expect grappling to continue to be the main path to victory for Saint-Denis going forward. It is what he did well on the regionals too. He does a good job of landing doubles against the cage. He also has a decent passing game and is submission capable on the mat with his aggressive backtakes.

Look, I don’t think Saint Denis is the best grappler or anything. However, he is competent and tenacious. He is also a very tough guy who can push a pace. He just shoots so many takedowns and is always pressuring his opponents and breaks them. He will continue to wreck the majority of UFC fighters on the mat.

I just don’t trust Saint Denis defensively though as a striker or as a grappler. In his UFC debut, he took an all-time beating against Zaleski Dos Santos in a fight that certainly should have been stopped. He stayed tough in that fight and wasn’t finished. He absorbed 149 significant strikes in that fight and only dished out 67 in return. I am just not comfortable with people who absorb that many strikes, and Saint Denis’ striking style is too brawling based for my liking. He then got knocked dead against Dustin Poirier. So he clearly has some defensive striking issues.

I do think Saint Denis has a good rear body kick out of the southpaw stance though. He is also aggressive and it really frustrates and bothers opponents. So I do think he is knockout capable. I also think he is capable of outworking fighters on the feet as well. His defense REALLY scares me though, and he will certainly be knocked out again in the future. Even Moises landed some very big hooks at the end of round twp in the pocket. Moises just didn’t have the power in his hands to totally make Saint Denis pay.

I also didn’t like the way Saint Denis was beat up on the mat vs Moicano. It was a bad look and good grapplers can probably expose his defensive grappling.

I think Saint Denis will continue to win a lot of fights at this level with his grappling and pace, but I do think his lack of defense will cause him to lose fights.

Saint Denis will be taking on Kyle Prepolec. Prepolec is a Canadian fighter and is 35 years old. He is 18-8 professionally. 

Prepolec actually had a two fight stint in the UFC back in 2019. He lost decisions to Nordine Taleb and Austin Hubbard. The Taleb fight was a striking based fight where Taleb outlanded Prepolec 90-52 in significant strikes. Hubbard and Prepolec struck somewhat competitively but Hubbard landed three takedowns and obtained about six minutes of control.

Prepolec is basically a base kickboxer / striker. He stands out of the southpaw stance and is kind of a fighter who gets into range and touches his opponents up a bit, and will occasionally throw a big shot like a head kick. He does have some decent power kicks and he has won by knockout 10 times. I actually don’t think his striking is that bad. He is fairly technical. He was getting the better of Hubbard in their fight. I also consider Prepolec to be durable and he has never been knocked out. He also has decent cardio.

The issue is Prepolec’s striking isn’t very good or special either. He is just not a great athlete and I question how dangerous he is vs. any capable opponent. He has 10 knockouts but mostly against poor competition. He also doesn’t really grapple often so his offense is limited to tepid based striking fights where he needs to win by knockout or win a close decision.

Prepolec also has some defensive grappling issues. Hubbard had success and Prepolec can be taken down a bit. He will try to work up at times. I don’t think he is completely awful on the mat. However, Prepolec can get his guard passed and manipulated on the mat a bit. Good grapplers can surely beat him on the mat and take his back. Hubbard had a full on body triangle on him.

As far as this matchup goes, I actually may be in the minority here and think Prepolec has a chance if this fight stays standing. Prepolec isn’t good. However, he really isn’t a bad striker and does have some sneaky power at times. Saint Denis is just so hittable and not technical on the feet. We have seen Saint Denis hurt like a million times at this point. So if Prepolec happens to get a striking fight, I honestly could see him hurting Saint Denis or landing some precision shots here and there.

The issue is the grappling though. Saint Denis clearly has a grappling edge here and he generally does wrestle. My guess is Saint Denis just grapples to a win. Prepolec’s takedown defense is just not great and he does give up some positions here and there. So I will pick Saint Denis to put the grappling pace on Prepolec and grapple to a win. My guess is that it probably leads to a finish for Saint Denis as Prepolec gives up advances of positions a little too often. 

I do think this line is too wide though given Prepolec could have striking success here and Saint Denis is too hittable. I also don’t think Prepolec’s defensive grappling is completely awful either and he does have cardio. 

—

On DraftKings, we have an interesting dynamic with Saint Denis priced up to 9.7k as the most expensive fighter on the board, with a $500 gap between him and Jasudavicius who is the second most expensive.

Despite the high price tag, I expect Saint Denis to be ulta chalky. There aren’t many obvious top tier options but there is plenty of value in the 7k range which provides enough room to pay up.

It’s a weird situation because Saint Denis isn’t that great. He’s pretty defensively questionable and he’s now lost twice in a row. He just came out and said he’d been training without a head coach and stuff.. he was an overrated fighter coming into his recent bouts.

Even against Prepolec, like Tim said, it wouldn’t be that crazy to see Saint Denis struggle on the feet. He’s not some technical marvel and Prepolec is fine, with decent cardio.

The issue is Saint Denis has shown massive fantasy upside in wins. He’s put up 109, 149, 115, 136, and 105 in his wins, which is largely due to his wrestling pace. I don’t expect his style to change here, so in theory if he wins again, we should expect a big score.

And now he’s -1000 to win with an elite ITD line. ITD lines aren’t out yet but the Under 1.5 Rounds prop is sitting at -170, so clearly BSD will carry the best finishing prop on the entire slate.

On a card with a few very weak top-range targets, Saint Denis is just going to be an obvious pay up fighter in all formats. I think he’s a cash game lock and he’s going to rate out as the best tournament play as well.

Of course, if you cannot fit him in, that’s still OK. Jasudavicius rates out well too and it’s possible she could score similarly to BSD in a win. In that case, we could see a more mid-range based lineup hit the optimal.

I don’t mind playing into the mid-range this week as there is upside with relatively low ownerships. You’re going to be guessing more often, but you have a real shot to win first place with only a few ties, so the strategy might be worth it. If you’re playing stars/scrubs with BSD/Maddalena/etc., those types of combinations will be heavily duplicated and that’s my main concern.

Overall, Saint Denis is going to rate out as the best play on this slate and despite the 9.7k price tag, it would be totally fine to push your chips in on him. Just be cautious about your overall constructions, and I also think it’s worth playing into the mid-range a bit more in order to get off some of the chalky combinations.

Prepolec is priced at 6.5k and will be the lowest owned fighter on the slate.

Obviously, he’ll rate out extremely poorly as a +700 dog, but he’ll carry insane leverage against Saint Denis which is mildly interesting.

What’s more interesting is just that Saint Denis sucks defensively and has been beaten to a pulp on more than one occasion. If he somehow loses this, he probably gets knocked out or badly hurt, so I do think Prepoloec has upside. I’m not in love with Prepolec’s striking but he’s coming off a couple of early knockout wins.

I don’t know. It’s honestly not the worst sprinkle in the world from a game theory standpoint but realistically you’re just not going to end up with much Prepolec given the win equity scattered throughout the rest of the 7k range. If you are max-entering tournaments and want to take a couple of shots, go for it.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Saint Denis by RNC, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium-High)

UNDERCARD

Mike Malott vs. Charles Radtke

Fight Odds: Malott -166, Radtke +143

Odds to Finish: -210

DraftKings Salaries: Malott 8.9k, Radtke 7.3k

Weight Class: 170

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

We have a bit of a tough matchup to break down here as Canadian Mike Malott will take on Charles Radtke.

Malott is 11-2-1 professionally. He is a coach at team Alpha Male and has had a weird professional career. He is 34 years old and has won most of his fights in the first round.

Malott quickly finished his opponent on the Contender Series and then knocked Mickey Gall out in round one in his UFC debut. Malott then faced Yohan Lainesse and was able to quickly take him down and submit him. He then faced Adam Fugitt and was able to take him down a few times, and then eventually hurt him and guillotine him.

Malott then faced Neil Magny. Malott was actually dominating Magny in the first couple of rounds by outstriking and outgrappling Magny. Malott then eventually gassed out, got taken down, and got finished on the mat. It was one of the only times he had been in an extended fight so it was a bad look.

Malott then fought Giles and won a tepid striking decision where he outlanded Giles 59-34 in significant strikes. I liked that Malott showed he could win an extended fight. However, the pace was low and he didn’t really have to go through adversity. I do question Malott when he is in an extended high paced matchup. He clearly gassed himself out over wrestling against Magny. It looked like against Giles, he was afraid to tire out. So pacing is clearly something he is trying to figure out.

I do think Malott looks dangerous in general. He is a decently skilled striker and has a fine kicking game. He can land some hard combinations as well. He also is a fine grappler and has a decent shot and back taking game where he is capable of body triangles and submissions. He is a pretty technically skilled fighter in general.

However, Malott still looks shaky in extended fights and there is clearly a pacing issue that he is figuring out. It will be interesting to see how he adjusts to that.

Malott will be taking on Charles Radtke who is now 3-1 in the UFC and 10-4 professionally. He is 34 years old. His one loss came to Carlos Prates where he was knocked out and kind of just beaten up. He knocked out Semelsberger and Urbina and showed some power in the pocket in those matchups. He had a weird decision win in his UFC debut against Blood Diamond where Radtke controlled him vs the cage a bit.

Radtke isn’t bad. On the feet, I do like his aggression and power in the pocket. He is clearly knockout capable at this level. I still question his defense a little bit though and don’t think he is the most technical guy in the world. I have seen him touched up a bit at times on the regionals. 

As a grappler, Radtke is competent. I don’t think he is the best wrestler in the world as his takedowns aren’t great. However, he can float on top a bit and is a physical guy. As a defensive grappler, Radtke is decent and pretty physical. I have seen his back taken though and he can be body triangled. So I do think he can be exploited there a bit. 

As far as this matchup goes, I do think Malott is a more skilled fighter upon taping. I think Malott has more ways to win so I am picking him. I think Malott is more technical in general.

On the feet, I think Malott is better with his kicks but Radtke is probably a bit faster in the pocket. I think the striking is a bit high-variance. I could see either guy hurting each other, and I think I trust Radtke more in a high paced striking fight down the stretch. In a slower paced striking fight, I think Malott will outpoint him. The striking looks pretty competitive to me.

I do think Malott has some grappling upside though. Radtke isn’t easy to grapple, but I definitely think if Malott is persistent, he can get a takedown and a body triangle. I really doubt Radtke can outgrapple Malott unless Malott gasses horribly. So Malott’s grappling advantage is honestly the main reason I favor him.

This fight is a tough fight to predict as far as how it will play out though. I don’t know how Malott will approach the fight. Malott may grapple or he may try to slow the pace down and strike. Radtke may be aggressive on the feet though to force Malott to change something up. 

Malott is clearly a fighter who likes to be in control and not fight through adversity. I tend to think Malott will try to slow striking exchanges down and if he is getting the better of the exchanges he will probably just keep doing that. If Radtke starts pushing a pace and having success, I tend to think Malott will look to grapple.

I could easily see a situation where Malott faces some adversity and just ends up losing. So Radtke is a live dog here. However, I do tend to think Malott is more skillful with more ways to win so he is my pick.

—

On DraftKings, this is a fight I am pretty interested in given the potential pacing and odds to end inside the distance.

More specifically, on the Radtke side, I feel like he’s an easy click at 7.3k and I expect him to be pretty popular this week. Malott’s odds are dropping and people will look to the value of Radtke to help them pay up.

Plus, Radtke has won by knockout in his last two victories and has scored 118 and 123, so he clearly has upside.

I think picking Malott to win is totally fair, and I do see him as a bit more technical and wanting to play in a slower paced style. My gut says Radtke is not going to allow that to happen, and he’ll want to force a brawl. I actually think he has a really decent chance to win as he’s powerful in the pocket, he’s a strong grappler, and Malott has already gassed out once.

I would not at all be surprised if Radtke forced a high pace here and was able to get a mid-round stoppage once Malott gets tired. It’s obviously not a guarantee but I do think there is hope for upside, and Radtke is +180 to win ITD which is a fantastic line for the price tag.

Ultimately, it’s going to make Radtke chalky on this slate I believe. I think he’ll be the most popular 7k fighter besides Maddalena and Shevchenko, and he’s also my cheap favorite underdog given his upside and metrics. I may not be excessively overweight, but I consider Radtke a strong dog play for the price tag and want exposure to him this week.

Malott at 8.9k may be among the better tournament plays on the slate from a theory perspective.

With his odds falling, I see Malott losing some ownership and Radtke increasing ownership, and it’s quite possible that Radtke is more popular than Malott outright.

We also have Muhammad and BSD/Jasudavicius to draw a lot of attention away from Malott.

There is definitely risk on the Malott side. He might very well lose. He might choose to fight in a slow paced bout where he busts, like his last fight where he only scored 54 in a win. However, he has also scored 105, 104 and 112 in his previous three wins, and we’ve already seen Radtke finished in round one.

If Radtke does force a higher paced fight, I think it will lead to a pretty strong score from the winner and it could still easily be Malott. He’s +150 to win ITD, and he has some grappling equity. I think he may get overlooked due to his metrics and the lightning rods in this range will draw ownership, which just makes Malott more appealing.

Again, he’ll have clear downside if the fight ends up being slow paced, but I think this is a decent fight to target and Malott seems like one of the better favorites to come in overweight considering the slate dynamics.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Radtke by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Low)

Jasmine Jasudavicius vs. Jessica Andrade

Fight Odds: Jasudavicius -302, Andrade +245

Odds to Finish: -115

DraftKings Salaries: Jasudavicius 9.2k, Andrade 7k

Weight Class: 125

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

One of Canada’s most promising prospects, Jasmine Jasudavicius will get a real step up in competition this weekend against the former champion Jessica Andrade.

I have been extremely impressed with Jasmine Jasudavicius lately and she has cashed for us a lot. I also just think she is a breath of fresh air and seems like a cool chick with a great personality, so I will be cheering for her going forward as a fan.

I do think this matchup against Andrade is a little tougher for her than the betting line suggests though, and I will always be objective when breaking down Jasmine’s fights even if I am a fan.

Jasmine is mostly a grappler and more specifically a wrestler. She likes to clinch her opponents up with a body lock, get the takedown and go to work in top position. I have also seen her shoot good double legs as well. Her top game is heavy, and I do like her ground-and-pound. She will posture up and throw some hard shots. I really like how relentless she is in top position. She has also shown a front choke game and submitted two of her last four opponents.

Jasmine lands 2.50 takedowns per 15 minutes, and I consider her takedowns decent. She is tenacious and her pace and physicality assists her takedowns in general. I do think she sometimes struggles with her takedown entries though, but she is capable of timing good shots.

I also have liked the takedown defense of Jasmine and she defends takedowns at 75 percent, and works up to her feet well. She is fantastic at reversing positions and turning her opponents’ offensive wrestling into her own top positional opportunities.

Although Jasmine is long, she doesn’t use her length to control range on the feet. She is not technical on the feet at all. She lands 3.71 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.67. She is a bit of a punching bag. I actually thought Jasmine’s striking has looked better lately though. It is moreso her pace and pressure than her striking lately. She just walks forward and backs her opponents up well and can land her shots.

I still think Jasmine has flaws though. She isn’t technical at all on the feet and is super hittable. However, she is tenacious and pressures hard. She also seems extremely tough and won’t back down or let a big shot deter her. She will look to land offense and she is big as well. I think she can continue to grind out wins with takedowns, control, and pace at this level.

Jasmine will be taking on former title challenger Jessica Andrade. One of the biggest strengths of Andrade is her aggression and cardio combination. She will march her opponents down and put a wild pace on them, whether it is with her strikes or with her takedowns.

As a striker, Andrade isn’t all that technical but she is quite competent and dangerous. She has one punch power and is very aggressive and wings wild hooks. She lands 6.44 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 5.51 in return.

Andrade is hittable, but she generally hits much harder than her opponents from a strike per strike basis and tends to wear them down over the course of 15 minutes. She does get hurt every now and then though and was recently knocked out by Yan Xiaonan, so her durability is worrying me a bit.

As a grappler, Andrade again isn’t all that technical but she is very tenacious and physically strong which aids her takedown ability. Andrade lands 2.23 takedowns per 15 minutes and can absolutely break opponents with her takedowns and ground control. 

Andrade defends takedowns at 72 percent, and I actually do consider her first layer tdd pretty decent. She has been submitted on the mat a lot recently though. She moreso has an issue giving up her back and fighters can take advantage of hook opportunities or front choke opportunities when she is in the front headlock position. I don’t think she is all that easy to actually land a takedown on and hold down. You basically just need to catch her in transition when she gives up her back.

That is why I think this matchup with Jasmine is interesting. I do think Andrade is pretty difficult to get down and Andrade has won as an underdog against grappling dependent fighters before as the market misjudged Andrade. 

I really could see Jasmine failing on some takedowns for stretches and getting beaten up on the feet a bit. The striking is probably somewhat competitive as Jasmine is tough, but I would definitely favor Andrade standing. So I really do think Andrade has a chance for the upset here. I mean we got Jasmine at -200 against Lipski and now she is -300 against Andrade in a way tougher stylistic matchup (although still winnable).

I still do think Jasmine is the rightful favorite. She is bigger than Andrade and I do think Jasmine can land some takedowns here. Jasmine can probably consolidate top position as well and maybe get the back or catch a front choke in transition. I am going to pick her to win.

However, be careful with Jasmine this weekend. I really think Andrade could give her issues, and I nearly picked Andrade for the upset. So just be careful as I think the line is too wide.

—

On DraftKings, I still expect Jasudavicius to be a standout in the top range, alongside Saint Denis.

There may be risk with this particular matchup and her betting line may be a bit wide, but her style is going to equate to big scores in wins, which still makes her very valuable.

In her recent wins, Jasudavicius has scored 102, 104, 91 and 169, and she’s topped 100 points multiple times in decisions in her career which is also a value add.

You can argue her ceiling is more questionable here because she’s only +155 to win ITD and may not be able to accrue mass amounts of control time where she can rack up ground strikes. At the same time, Andrade’s pacing means more potential for exchanges, and ultimately a very strong floor/ceiling combination for Jasudavicius given her style.

So at 9.2k, I feel somewhat obligated to target here. I’m really not a huge fan of the tier priced below her, though many of those options will be semi-contrarian. Saint Denis is a great target but he costs $500 more.

Realistically, it’s just difficult to prioritize any other option in this price range above Jasmine, with the exception of BSD. So when I can pay up into the high 8ks and low 9ks, Jasmine will likely end up on a lot of those lineups. I expect the field will follow suit. Pivoting away on occasion is still totally fine and there are a couple of options who have KO equity at a potential lower ownership.

Andrade at 7k makes for an intriguing contrarian target. I do think we’ll see a lot of BSD/Jasmine combinations but playing Andrade is one way to get off that more popular build.

It’s still not a great matchup for Andrade, and her ceiling is low. Her win equity is limited. But given her pacing, she can still accrue a lot of points in a win and in theory she does have tools to test Jasudavicius. Andrade is only +400 to win ITD but she has some KD upside there, and she could potentially land a couple of takedowns even if she does nothing with them.

Mostly, it’s the leverage that really makes Andrade intriguing. I have to imagine Jasudavicius will be among the more popular fighters on the slate, but she’s going to fall into ultra-chalky builds with the other five-round fighters and BSD as well. Andrade presents one way to get off that kind of build and I think she has low-end secondary viability because of it.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Jasudavicius by Decision (Confidence=Medium)

Modestas Bukauskas vs. Ion Cutelaba

Fight Odds: Cutelaba -110, Bukauskas -105

Odds to Finish: -210

DraftKings Salaries: Cutelaba 8.2k, Bukauskas 8k

Weight Class: 205

*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe

Modestas Bukauskas got bounced out of the UFC back in 2021 after an underwhelming 1-3 run. But he was brought back in 2023 after winning the Cage Warriors title where he’s since gone 4-1 in his return – he’s 5-4 in the UFC and 17-6 as a pro. Ion Cutelaba has picked up back-to-back victories and typically fights with a fan-friendly style – he’s 8-9-1 in the UFC and 19-10-1 as a pro.

The striking component:

Bukauskas falls more into the rangy striker type as he likes to dart in and out of the pocket, usually with 1-2 combos, step back check hooks and will mix in some rangier kicks here and there.  

The large majority of his wins come via finish, but it hasn’t translated as much since entering the UFC – he does have some pop though.    

Despite being able to play a relatively tactical based game, he’s not going into fights and just “pacing” opponents at space – he is a lower to average volume guy on his best day.    

An additional issue with Bukauskas standing is that despite using a decent amount of movement, he doesn’t move his head much, making him a liability at space and on pocket entry (saw this is the Crute fight).  

He looked decent against Michal, got outclassed by Roundtree, landed the bigger shots against Pedro to earn him that nod – Pedro still technically outlanded him at distance though 39-34. He had a competitive scrap with Pauga where he also got outlanded but edged on the cards (thought Pauga won personally). Not much happened at space against Petrino until the left hand landed in the 2nd round putting Bukauskas down – he got chewed up with kicks by Prachnio and both guys nearly killed each other – most recently, he pot shotted Cerqueira until finding the kill shot a few minutes into round one.  

Overall, Bukauskas is a serviceable striker by lower tier 205 standards but his margins are always going to be razor thin unless he’s finding finishes – his distance differential currently sits at -1/minute for context.

Ion Cutelaba’s a heavy handed, intense individual but a guy who has largely lacked process.  He comes into his fights with a chip on his shoulder and is largely trying to take guys’ heads off.  Statistically, he lands 4.3 SLpM at 43% and 4.2 DLpM at 33%.   

We’ve even seen him have a guy like Glover Teixeira in some deep waters early on, but he eventually gassed and got finished. Somewhat similar song and dance against Cannonier and Jacoby but he didn’t get finished – just dropped the last two rounds.     

But because a lot of his fights have finished early, that will skew his metrics a bit, but I do think they are representative.      

Traditionally, Cutelaba’s been reckless which is a testament to his striking defense numbers sitting at 3.4 SApM with a  46% defensive rate, and 4.5 DApM at 50%. 

But we’ve some maturation with Cutelaba pre-Ankalaev fights against Roundtree in my opinion, but he still largely went back to old junkyard dog Cutelaba there and against Jacoby.  Against Clark, we saw a much more composed/tactical Cutelaba when the fight was standing, and he was picking and choosing his shots well.  The Spann and Walker fights had little distance time.     

He went wild on the feet again against Kennedy, got hurt and finished in the 2nd round.  He also unloaded on Boser, getting him out of there. He had moments against Lins but got his leg chewed off and was effectively outstruck. 

More recently, we saw more composed Cutelaba again where he hurt Erslan early but largely fought composed and got the better of the overall exchanges – the distance numbers were still close at 38 to 33 though. 

Overall, Cutelaba is still by and large a meme, kill or be killed type of guy but has his jekyll and hyde tactical approaches which have worked sometimes and not in others.  

How it plays out: The striking seems somewhat high-variance as both guys have semi-dodgy chins and can hurt the other. I do think Cutelaba has more raw punching power but I also think Bukauskas is a better technical striker who will also realize a length advantage here. 

The wrestling/grappling component:

Prior to Bukauskas’ fight with Prachnio, he had yet to land a TD in his seven UFC fights, which is largely representative of his Cage Warriors days as he’s just not a proactive wrestler. 

He went 2/2 against Prachnio but the only real reason he started to wrestle was because he was getting cracked and didn’t have much of a choice. He eventually submitted Prachnio with a half assed arm-triangle in round three, but that was his first sub since 2018. 

He’s a recently crowned BJJ brown belt but even in his earlier two subs, those transitions were odd and opponents just gave their backs. He has shown some GNP capabilities in rare times he’s been able to get on top. 

His defensive wrestling in the UFC hasn’t been tested a ton but he’s given up early TDs in all three of the outings that he’s been shot on which aided in him dropping those rounds, despite working up in two of them. 

He’s stuffed at 71% so far which is a respectable mark despite not having a vast sample or fighting many strong historic wrestlers. 

But regionally, he’s dropped multiple rounds on the floor and had been a bit of a comeback type of guy who scored late KOs in those scenarios. 

He did do a good job of defending some of the front chokes in his bout against Pedro though. 

Overall, Bukauskas has made some improvements in the defensive department in terms of his get ups from 6+ years ago, but despite the Prachnio result, it’s still difficult to project offensive upside for him. 

Cutelaba comes from a greco roman wrestling and sambo background where he lands 4.2 TDs per 15 minutes at 52%.    

So, he is reliable to wrestle and he’s had success most notably against Cannonier, Rountree, Jacoby (early), Clark, Kennedy (early), Boser (early), Erslan (mid pack) and Aslan (early). 

However, he struggled to hold Cannonier down in an extended fight but looked very good against Rountree and Jacoby early – his gas held much better against Clark and was able to beat him up good over the course of 15 minutes, nearly stopping him on multiple occasions via GNP.      

We saw him land multiple TDs on Spann but he did struggle to control him and eventually succumbed to a guillotine – similarly against Walker having early success but actually got his back taken and submitted by Walker which is not a good look at all.     

We haven’t seen Cutelaba have to defensively wrestle much but he hasn’t looked good on bottom in the times we have.      

He was submitted in his debut by Cirkunov, Antigulov took him down three times before gassing and got some control time – Teixeira didn’t officially land a TD but caught a kick, passed his guard, took his back and submitted him with ease – we even saw Jacoby land a TD at the end of their fight. 

Lins found points of success and Erslan, by and large top timed him in round three.     

So, the general sample of actual takedown attempts against Cutelaba isn’t vast but he’s largely shit on his back and a poor defensive grappler.     

Last point to reference, he went 8/11 on TDs against Jacoby in the 1st round – he then went 1/7 in the 2nd  round and 0/1 in the 3rd.      

Overall, he’s a good entry-based wrestler with sound GNP but of his 18 UFC fights, he’s only had extended wrestling success once. He is coming off his first submission win in over a decade so maybe there’s something there in terms of grappling improvements. But Cutelaba largely hasn’t had the cardio/control to sustain his taxing-based style, is poor on the bottom and only winning 53% of control positions despite his base.

How it plays out: Despite many the issues I just listed for Cutelaba, I’d ultimately give him more ground upside primarily in the sense that he’s the best offensive wrestler that Bukauskas has fought (who’s also dangerous) outside of Martin Hamlet and has still given up TDs at the end of the day against lesser wrestlers. But as noted, I still don’t trust Cutelaba to be able to wrestle for 15 minutes and Bukauskas has theoretical upside to get on top late as well.

Shitshow of a fight between two largely inconsistent guys despite both of their recent results actually being favorable. I don’t have a strong opinion here as it seems like a high-variance type of fight. I’ll take Cutelaba just in the sense that he’s going to test the wrestling of Bukauskas and I think he’s the more dangerous guy in the matchup.

—

On DraftKings, I think this is a pretty solid mid-range fight to target and both sides have finishing equity with a -210 overall ITD line.

I am not a fan of Bukauskas, and never have been, but I actually like him in this fight and am going to pick him to win. He could get bonked early, and he’s usually a low volume guy, but Cutelaba tends to force a pace which I think will also force Bukauskas to engage.

The real issue here is that Cutelaba is like a lock to gas. He gets tired in every fight and even in his last extended fight he was getting held down by freaking Ivan Erslan late. Bukauskas to me has way more upside in an extended fight, and he’s far more comfortable in later rounds.

I do think Cutelaba is the better outright wrestler but Cutelaba has terrible control, so my guess is Bukauskas can get back up. Bukauskas isn’t a lock to wrestle himself but Cutelaba has been finished by sub a handful of times and given his weak cardio, I do think Bukauskas can find ground success. Both sides can hurt each other early though.

Cutelaba is priced at 8.2k and has the better ITD line at +135. He’s shown a strong historic ceiling and I think he’ll be the more popular side here, though it could be close. I think he’s a totally fine secondary target.

I don’t really love Cutelaba in this matchup, so I’d personally rather be near field or slightly underweight than overweight, but I am ultimately just guessing, and I still think targeting the ITD equity of this fight makes sense. We’ve seen Bukauskas KOd early a couple of times so an early Cutelaba KO is definitely in play.

Bukauskas is priced at 8k and the primary issue with him is that he produces so little volume that he needs an early finish.

We’ve seen him score in the 50s in decisions, and even with a recent third-round sub, he only scored 84 DK points. He needs an early finish in all likelihood to stand out, and given his pacing, it’s a major risk and one that should force you to cap your exposure to him.

With that said, Cutelaba brings the action. I think it will give Bukauskas some early KO upside, and I actually think he has early/mid-round grappling equity too. I wouldn’t at all be surprised to see Cutelaba gas out and get finished in round two or three.

Bukauskas is +200 to win ITD which is fine, but not as good as Cutelaba’s line. Coming off a first-round KO, he should get some ownership but I still think the public will favor Cutelaba.

I lean toward Bukauskas outright and I think he’s a quality secondary target, but there’s no need to get too crazy with ownership here given his historic pacing risk and the competitive betting line.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Bukauskas by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Low)

Navajo Stirling vs. Ivan Erslan

Fight Odds: Stirling -311, Erslan +251

Odds to Finish: -190

DraftKings Salaries: Stirling 9.1k, Erslan 7.1k

Weight Class: 205

Coming off a UFC debut win, Navajo Stirling will aim for an impressive finish against a dangerous fighter in Ivan Erslan.

Stirling is now 6-0 professionally at age 27, and he trains out of the City Kickboxing camp with Israel Adesanya and company. He’s earned four wins by knockout and two by decision.

I don’t view Stirling as anything special, though he looks like a pretty competent kickboxer and muay-thai practitioner. He doesn’t have some deep kickboxing background though, and instead pursued MMA as a way to get off heavy drinking as a teenager.

Training at the camp he does can surely benefit you, and I have no doubt Stirling has grown into a functional fighter. However, we’ve also seen other fighters come in from this camp like “Blood Diamond” who had a better pedigree and didn’t amount to anything.

In his UFC debut, Stirling was able to outstrike Tuco Tokkos to a decision, landing 78 significant strikes while absorbing 32. Tokkos took him down a few times but wasn’t able to do much with it, and Stirling mostly just controlled the exchanges at distance.

It wasn’t a particularly impressive performance considering Tokkos is a low-level opponent, and I’m still not sure what to make of Stirling. There is one real fight of his available to watch from the regional scene, and that’s his Contender Series performance. He looked somewhat sharp on the feet there, and ultimately knocked his opponent out cold in the second round.

I do like his distance game and I like the volume he keeps up. He landed 52 significant strikes in 7 minutes on DWCS which is really strong, and definitely gives me hope that he can continue to win rounds standing. I did also think he looked a bit labored as the fight progressed into round two, and I’m not sold he’ll be a huge threat late in fights.

His grappling is also a huge question mark and potentially a mild liability. I read that Stirling was nervous to grapple because he thought he wouldn’t like it, but then realized he loved it. He actually attempted a takedown on DWCS which is a good sign, but it wasn’t a great one and he didn’t land it.

He didn’t shoot any takedowns in his UFC debut and I doubt it will be a primary path to victory for him. I’d also guess that strong wrestlers can take advantage of him, though there aren’t many in the light heavyweight division.

My guess at this moment is that he isn’t good enough to beat decent wrestlers, and he will likely be a liability on the mat at some point. Perhaps he’s still developing though and of course I’d love to gather more data there.

Overall, Stirling is a fine prospect. He’s a good athlete and pretty physical, and I think that will translate into power. His striking is functional and his volume looks fine to go three rounds. He seems tough.

Ivan Erslan is 14-4 professionally at age 33, and he’s earned 10 wins by knockout and one by submission.

Erslan lost his UFC debut to Ion Cutelaba in September, in a split decision. Cutelaba attempted a dozen takedowns and landed three of them, but couldn’t maintain any control. Erslan actually landed one of his own in the third round and got on top of Cutelaba for a few minutes. Cutelaba also outlanded Erslan 38 to 33 at distance.

Erslan is relatively experienced for a regional fighter and has a bunch of fights in the KSW promotion which is a decent feeder in Eastern Europe.

With that said, he’s primarily a power striker and the vast majority of his success has come from knockouts. He’s a capable boxer with power, but he’s not necessarily a high-volume fighter so there are definite round-winning concerns with Erslan.

I do like that he was able to outlast Cutelaba, though Cutelaba is notorious for gassing out. Erslan isn’t necessarily the type who will blow his load in the first couple of minutes and death gas if he doesn’t land the KO. He can remain dangerous for all three rounds.

But it surely feels like unless he’s landing some big power shots, he’s just not going to have any sustained success. So his upside will be largely tied to knockouts, and most likely, early knockouts.

As a grappler, Erslan has minimal upside though it appears he can get on top of weak or tired opponents. He only has one submission on his record and will look more to land ground strikes if he is able to get on top. I just wouldn’t expect him to wrestle at a high rate or have much success.

Again, it was good to see him fight defensively against Cutelaba, and the result could have been far worse. His defensive grappling on the regional scene was mediocre and I do still think he can be outwrestled, but it appears he’ll at least defend functionally and try to scramble up when necessary.

Erslan has been knocked out once and submitted once, and I’ve seen him hurt a couple of times. His last fight was -600 to end inside the distance though it ultimately went the full three rounds.

It’s hard to feel great about Erslan’s chances at the UFC level, though I’d still like to gather more data. I think he’ll be mostly reliant on beating lower-level competition and winning by early KO, but he’s not a complete boom or bust fighter and his experience might be a benefit against an opponent like Stirling.

I would still project Stirling as the better distance striker, and especially over three rounds, Stirling rates out as the more consistent offensive threat. He’s shown solid volume through his last two performances and that’s enough to favor him over Erslan outright.

However, it’s tough to be supremely confident. Stirling is still pretty inexperienced and if he’s standing and trading with Erslan, both sides will have some knockout equity. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Stirling hurt Erslan, or vice versa.

On the mat, both sides have some mild takedown equity but it’s difficult to project either man having real success on top. I think Erslan can probably take Stirling down but I doubt he attempts many takedowns and even with 1-2, Stirling can probably scramble free. Stirling just looks too green to me on the mat to consistently outwrestle an opponent like Erslan.

So my best guess is this fight plays out on the feet. Stirling is a couple of inches taller with seven extra inches of reach, and I have to favor him at distance over an extended period. I don’t see a reason to be exceptionally confident though, and one big moment on either side could be enough to swing rounds or the fight.

—

On DraftKings, Stirling is priced up to 9.1k and he’ll rate out as a boom or bust option who I’m not extremely interested in.

I suppose this could be a buy low spot for Stirling. Jasudavicius and Saint Denis will definitely be higher owned, priced above him, and Belal will probably be the main lightning rod of ownership below him.

There’s a chance that Stirling just gets overlooked in this price tier. He is -120 to win ITD which is fine, though it still needs to come early.

It just doesn’t seem like Stirling has comparable upside to Jasmine or BSD, as those two grapple at a high pace and also have finishing equity. Even in his second round win on DWCS, Stirling would have only scored ~102 DK points. He needs a RD 1/2 KO to have a real shot at the optimal.

So that’s the hope. A big, early KO. An underwhelming score by Jasudavicius and maybe hope that BSD gets priced off the optimal. I definitely think Stirling could be viewed as one of the stronger upside targets of the 9.1k-8.8k tier.

Essentially, Stirling is a boom or bust secondary option. I will prioritize the grapplers in this range personally, and I think it’s totally fine to build in the mid-range this week as well. Stirling is no guarantee. But he has some KO equity and if you are paying up, he’s a viable mix-in.

Erslan at 7.1k is a viable upside target considering his KO path, and is potentially a buy low target as well.

It’s just important to remember Stirling has only had a few pro fights. He’s not some polished athlete. It feels extremely likely he’ll lose one of these days. He’s being matched up well currently and I don’t think Erslan is a great talent, but maybe Erslan could hurt him, and there’s still a lot of variance at play in striking exchanges.

Erslan is only +425 to win ITD and I don’t think he’ll be particularly popular. He’ll carry a super low floor and still among the worst win equity on the slate.

I think the truth of the matter is that I feel a lot better about a lot of other dogs winning than I do Erslan. So if push comes to shove, I’d rather be putting my chips on the majority of the rest of the 7k range.

I think the public will feel similarly though, which could make Erslan among the lower owned fighters on the slate. He’s simply a fine dart throw in that sense. He has a KO path to victory against an inexperienced opponent, and he’s cheap. I wouldn’t mind having low-end shares of him in large field tournaments but he’s ultimately not going to be a priority given the strength of the dogs on this card.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Stirling by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)

Marc-Andre Barriault vs. Bruno Silva

Fight Odds: Barriault -157, Silva +136

Odds to Finish: -200

DraftKings Salaries: Barriault 8.4k, Silva 7.8k

Weight Class: 185

*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe

Marc-Andre Barriault’s entering his 7th year on the roster and has been a pretty hit or miss guy over his run. He’s now coming off three straight losses and looking to get right in front of his hometown faithful – he’s 5-8 in the UFC and 16-9 as a pro. Bruno Silva got to the UFC a little later in his career and despite a hot start to his run, he’s severely struggled over the last three years and is currently riding a four-fight skid – he’s 4-6 in the UFC and 23-12 as a pro.

The striking component:

Barriault is more of your brooding type of 185er. He’s a dense dude who likes to come forward, put hands on opponents and fights well in the “phone booth” types of exchanges – he’s not a bad kicker either but is primarily boxing based.      

I think his combo boxing is actually good, but he’s also not the fastest guy in the world and will engage in the firefight. He hasn’t been a gigantic hitter in the UFC but had four KOs in his TKO run (Canadian regional promotion) and has been able to secure TKOs in two of his last five wins.       

Barriault’s record isn’t great but to his credit, he’s fought some tough guys in his run and has been in competitive fights – to illustrate, he’s taken a round off four of five opponents in his losses that have extended.      

The issue with Barriault is that despite him landing 6 SLpM at 47%, he eats 5.9 SApM and only defends at 52% — not good numbers but he has defended at distance at 58% which is a bit better and around the divisional average.     

He’s the type of guy who will take shots to give shots which optically isn’t always the best look, but he can shell well and he’s also the guy usually playing the bully which aids in his optics at the same time.      

In the wider past, Barriault has been a durable fighter which has been a staple in allowing his game to work. However, it appears that’s starting to go now as he’s coming off back to back KO losses. In fairness to him, getting KO’d by Njokuani and Pyfer isn’t really much of a knock but getting flatlined by Dustin Stoltzfus is highly alarming.

In a vacuum, he’s struggled with more technical/defensive orientated fighters who can also match his work rate, but it’s also not an easy task as Barriault will push a strong pace over 15 minutes standing.     

With all that being said though, Barriault is not an easy guy to look good against on the feet as he’s one of the grittier fighters in the division. You generally expect him to be in there for 15 minutes where he’ll test the cardio and grit of many opponents at 185.

Silva is more of a blitz striker who’s shown bigger power components in the past, with 20 of his 23 pro wins coming via KO.      

He’s shown some okay clinch components as well but is largely pretty hook reliant. In being a blitz striker, his pacing can be inconsistent at times.  His record overall is somewhat padded but has beaten some respectable guys in recent years.      

Defensively, he largely resorts to shelling and can move back in straight lines when effectively pressured.       

Historically, he hadn’t been attritionally beat up on the feet much, though but that’s changed in recent years. Pereira just chipped away at him and nearly finished later – to Silva’s credit, he had his moments in that fight, landing some solid shots, but he was just at too big of a technical deficiency.       

His fight with GM3 was also concerning though as he largely got “rope a doped” by a base grappler, hurt and eventually finished – his primary issue there was that he just couldn’t track down GM3 with consistency.      

He did have Allen hurt as both guys threw down in the pocket, but he ultimately lost that battle and got clipped.  His UFC Ws are interesting as he KO’d Turman in the guard, deaded Sanchez in the 3rd when Sanchez was exhausted, iced Jordan Wright which was far from shocking but got a nice KO win over Tavares.     

More recently, Magomedov just chewed him with kicks and landed the bigger shots. Weidman out landed him 56 to 29 at distance which isn’t a great look considering where Weidman is at in this stage of his career – similar to the Allan and Magomedov fights though, he landed some really clean shots on Weidman, but Weidman ate them – Naurdiev recently outlanded him as well.   

Overall, given Silva’s historic KO rate and the fact that he hasn’t won a decision since 2016, he’s a fighter that’s largely reliant on needing guys to go down because he just hasn’t shown the ability to consistently win minutes standing. Despite hanging tough in a handful of his recent losses, I question his durability at this point because he’s getting hurt a lot.

How it plays out: The striking dynamic is kind of weird here because Barriault’s historic archetype doesn’t pose well for Silva as the guy with better pace, cardio and toughness. But the one thing that Silva does well is hit hard and if Barriault’s durability is truly gone, he’s incredibly live to get knocked out here again.

The wrestling/grappling component:

Barriault has had some floor struggles and it’s been a component in him taking five of his eight UFC Ls.

Sanchez took him down twice and got six minutes of control time – Jotko took him down once and got nearly five minutes of control time – Park took him down five times and got 3+ minutes of control time – Hernandez took him down eight times and got 8+ minutes of control time, eventually submitting him for the 1st time in his pro career – Stoltzfus was also outwrestling him early last time out.      

With all that being said, it’s important to note that Barriault’s TDD still sits at 67%, which isn’t a bad number considering he’s faced 64 attempts and some stronger floor players.      

So, he’s not immune to being taken down but also has shown a decent get-up game and won’t be content to hang out on bottom – he’s still only getting out controlled at 2.5:1 ratio which isn’t good but contextually not terrible.

The issue is he’s gotten stuck on the cage at points and has struggled to work off. He was taken down twice by Wright but popped up quickly, though he still got stuck against the fence a bit before securing the guillotine.       

He got washed by Hernandez but that’s what Hernandez does to almost everyone.      

However, he actually had some solid top based success against Azaitar, finding a finish on the mat which isn’t in the traditional rolodex of Barriault – a big component of that was Azaitar being completely exhausted though.       

In the aggregate, he still only lands 0.2 TDs per 15 minutes at 25% though so he’s not a guy who’s shooting or securing much over a decent sample size. 

Overall, the floor is one of Barriault’s main flaws, but his strength of comp needs to be contextualized as he’s not being outwrestled/outgrappled by bums and has been submitted twice by one of the more potent grapplers in the division.    

Silva is a BJJ black belt but with ironic historics given his belt ranking, as he has no wins via submission and has been submitted in seven of his 12 losses.      

In his debut against Turman, he got his back taken for extensive minutes early, but Turman didn’t put a body triangle on (really stupid) and lost position – Silva KO’d him in the guard. But that’s not a unique fight either as we’ve seen Silva get his back taken and be outwrestled before.  He was also outwrestled by Sanchez for the overwhelming majority of the first two rounds.   

GM3 also had some early wrestling success but the finish in that fight and in the Allen fight were club-and-subs, in the defense of Silva. 

Weidman also got some early ride time on him and Naurdiev got three TDs most recently.   

Offensively, he’s hit some TDs here and there, but he isn’t a very good wrestler and guys have also accepted TDs before against him.      

He has been dangerous with ground-and-pound though which needs to be noted when he gets on top.    

He went 3/7 on TDs against Magomedov and racked up nearly seven minutes of control, but also ate a healthy amount of strikes from the bottom and got 2x’d on the feet so the groundwork he was able to do was futile – coupled with that he was gassed from all the shots he took.

Overall, outside of his ground and pound, the floor is a weakness for Silva.  

How it plays out: Both guys have relatively negative control ratios and aren’t proactive wrestlers. I suppose I would lean in giving Silva more upside just because he’s shot a bit more but I think Barriault has upside as well in extended fight if Silva gasses, as we’ve seen him do some good work on top later in certain fights.

This fight’s an absolute mess between two seemingly washed 35 year olds where the loser probably gets cut. I’ve historically been a more pro Barriault guy, just in the sense that he has some process to his game and can profile as a tricky matchup for a handful of certain styles. If this fight was booked 2-3 years ago, I’d have a relatively bullish opinion on Barriault to survive an early surge and break Silva down over the course of the fight. While I still think that’s very much on the table, I don’t know if he can take shots anymore and if there is one thing Silva does well, it’s that he hits hard. I honestly don’t know as this fight seems like a coin toss to me. I guess I’ll take Silva to meme.

—

On DraftKings, I think this is another decent mid-range fight and one that might be undervalued by the public.

I say that it might be undervalued because Barriault has been KOd twice in a row, and Silva has one win in his last seven fight. Despite a -200 fight ITD line, the public definitely will not be excited to play Silva, and it’s quite possible they will be scared off Barriault as well.

Barriault is priced at 8.4k and is ultimately my preferred target. I was actually on Stoltzfus as a dog last time out, for similar reasons as Luke described with Silva here, and it is pretty alarming in hindsight that Stoltzfus was able to dead him.

But I do trust the pacing of Barriault, and I’ve always loved that about his game. We’ve seen him land 141, 122, 118 and 109 sig. strikes in fights before, and he can absolutely break opponents who cannot keep up with his pacing. It simply puts him into a different mold than “boom or bust” as a second or third round finish will give him a high ceiling based on his offensive production.

Now facing Silva, I think there is worry Barriault gets KOd, but I also expect him to still push a pace at home in Canada. Silva has been knocked down in three of his past six fights, so there’s definitely KO equity here.

Barriault is +155 to win ITD and I think pretty strong secondary target at 8.4k. Yes, there is risk, but I think he has pretty clear upside in a victory and I’m willing to buy in on him in a potential bounce back matchup.

Silva at 7.8k feels like a pretty strong leverage target as well.

I’m not sure he’ll be extremely low owned in comparison to Barriault, but I have to imagine the ownership of Maddalena, Shevchenko, Cutelaba, Lee, etc. all keep ownership away from Silva. His box scores simply suck, and my guess is he’ll end up in the high teens in terms of ownership.

I don’t really like him as a fighter and he is boom or bust, but Barriault has now been knocked out badly in the first round in back-to-back fights. Silva is +185 to win ITD and typically wins quickly when he wins at all.

I think Silva is a pretty strong underdog target and I’m pretty hopeful Barriault will force a high pace here and initiate exchanges, which should give upside hope for both sides. It feels like a decent spot to come in overweight considering the low public ownership.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Barriault by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Low)

Daniel Santos vs. JeongYeong Lee

Fight Odds: Lee -113, Santos +102

Odds to Finish: -160

DraftKings Salaries: Santos 8.3k, Lee 7.9k

Weight Class: 145

*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe

Daniel Santos bypassed the Contender Series back in 2022 and is an intriguing prospect, but he hasn’t been a very active fighter having only fought three times in the last five years. He’ll be returning from another extended layoff of nearly two years as he’s pulled out of his last three fights – he’s 2-1 in the UFC and 11-2 as a pro. JeongYeong Lee was a part of the Road to UFC series where he won the tournament final this past year. He made good on his sophomore outing but is looking to rebound after being put down early by Hyder Amil in June – he’s 2-0 in the UFC and 11-1 as a pro. This is more of an impromptu booking as both guys have had recent fights fall through.

The striking component:

Santos comes from a muay thai background and trains out of the Chute Boxe camp in Brazil with former UFC lightweight Champion, Charles Oliveira.       

He’s a pretty fun guy to watch on the feet as he can play in the mid-range where he’s used kicks effectively – actually finishing two opponents with spinning back kicks to the body. But he’ll also play a forward pressure-based game where he’ll let his hands fly. He possesses good hand speed and has some pop where he falls more into the technical brawler category.        

Defensively, he’s scored a lot of quick finishes so he hasn’t faced a ton of overt striking based resistance regionally, but he will leave his head on the center line when he’s throwing his combos. 

In his debut against Arce, we saw a lot more volume from Arce than we have historically, but Santos was also just at a technical/defensive deficiency where he got outworked from the outside. It was in his fight against Castaneda where some of those defense issues also reared their head as he got hurt with two head kicks and a jab.    

However, the kid showed a ton of toughness/perseverance/heart in working through it, and continued to apply pressure, which gassed Castaneda out and Santos finished him off in the 2nd round.     

Most recently, we saw little distance time in the Munoz fight, but Munoz clearly didn’t want anything to do with Santos on the feet.   

Overall, Santos is an aggressive fighter that’s potent offensively but his defense can be an afterthought.

I believe Lee comes from a grappling background however he’s served as more of a striker throughout his pro career.   

He fights in a more prototypical Korean style as a pressure kickboxing type, but does prefer his punches with a good straight right, left hook and uppercut.   

His pacing I would say is about average as I’ve seen him fight at higher rates before (more so when he really finds his groove) but also be more of a methodical, blitzing, range sniper type as well.   

In that, he’s displayed some power with four of his 11 pro wins coming via KO and usually from those bursting in shots. He also hurt Bilder early with a clinch knee.  

Defensively, he’s a pretty linear fighter so he can be susceptible to straights at range, but he does leave himself exposed in the pocket when he wants to brawl – he reminds me a bit of fellow Korean Doo Ho Choi but not as good/proven of course.   

His chin has generally been good, but we did see him get dropped in his 1st pro loss back in 2017 – kind of a weird fight as it was only two rounds where if it was being scored by rounds, it would have been 1-1 going to a 3rd, but they gave it to the other guy – Lee did avenge that loss though the following year.

But as noted, he’s coming off losing a swinging contest with Amil so may have some chin issues. Outside of that, he just hasn’t faced extensive volume. 

Overall, Lee seems like a decent striker but may be a “live by the sword, die by the sword” type at the UFC level as I still don’t rate his ability to win “clean” minutes extended all that much.

How it plays out: I don’t see how this is going to be boring as both guys don’t mind a firefight, have proven to be dangerous on the feet and have their own defensive issues. With that dynamic, the striking seems pretty high-variance but I ultimately favor Santos for one primary reason and that’s that I feel he’s got more dog in him when the going gets tough – that’s not to say I think Lee is scared or anything though. These guys will bang it out.   

The wrestling/grappling component:

Santos is a four stripe BJJ purple belt who has a couple submission wins on his record but in fights I wasn’t able to view.       

He took a couple fights over in Russia pre UFC in the ACA promotion where he was pitted against a couple sambo archetypes.  In that, he had some struggles with the grinding wrestling style but to his credit, he put up lots of resistance in both of those fights and wasn’t extensively flattened on the mat with the exception of one round.        

Santos has shown pretty good defensive grappling competency as well to avoid dominant positions.    

He was able to threaten some ninja chokes from bottom to boot, but wasn’t able to secure anything. In the fight he lost, he was actually able to gain top position on a few occasions.       

But we still haven’t seen him shoot/pursue many offensive based TDs in space of his own so it’s hard to say what his offensive wrestling is like.  He did land twp in the Castaneda fight but wasn’t able to do much with them. He officially landed three against Munoz last time out but Munoz was largely just accepting of them/pulling guard where he closed his guard and Santos rode out top time.   

Overall, he can be taken down but isn’t going to be an easy guy to hold down or gain dominant positions against. I’m still a bit shaky on what to make of his offensive wrestling and jiu-jitsu though. 

As noted, Lee comes from a grappling background, but I wasn’t able to find anything on his official credentials.   

Ironically, he’s rarely wrestled in his career and I’ve watched the bulk of his pro career so it may be something difficult to bank on in the UFC – coupled with just not knowing much about his offensive prowess there.   

Three of his wins do come via submission though with the most recent one being in his1st Road to UFC fight where he was taken down early by his opponent but snatched up an armbar. His two other submissions come via armbar as well, suggesting he’s not much of a top player in addition to his historic lack of willingness to wrestle.   

He did get the better of the ground against Bilder though, landing two TDs in the back half of the fight – Bilder kind of just accepted positions though and played guard.  

Defensively, he got into some scrambles back regionally but was largely able to stay upright – he also wasn’t shot on much.   

It was really his fight against Yizha in the Road to UFC Finals where we saw some more negative things, where he got taken down five times and was controlled for over half the fight. I’d say roughly half of that was via cage push with the other half on the ground.   

He did stuff a total of 16 other shots which needs to be noted but he still really struggled to get off the fence and create space at the end of the day.   

I don’t really understand the decision of that fight considering the strikes were close and there weren’t any uber massive moments either – Yizha deserved that victory in my eyes.   

Despite Bilder not being able to ground Lee or do anything with his offensive pursuit, he held Lee against the fence for five minutes of that fight.  

Overall, I want more of a sample before really putting any stamp on what I think about his ground game but it doesn’t appear to be anything special.

How it plays out: The ground’s somewhat difficult to analyze given sample but I’d probably lean Santos just because he’s been a bit more proactive of the two, I’ve seen a bit more of him on top and the guys who have outwrestled him before are far superior offensive floor talents in comparison to Lee.

Banger of a fight in one that projects to have some variance associated with it. But I do ultimately favor Santos in both realms, albeit not by a big margin, and I generally think he’s the better prospect of the two with a higher ceiling. The biggest concern for me on his side is his lack of activity and having pulled out of his last three fights – the most recent one being last month against Davey Grant, so I question his general health. But despite some of those questions and variance in the matchup, I do think he should win this fight more often than not.

—

On DraftKings, this is a pretty hairy mid-range fight but I do like the scrappiness of Santos and I think he provides a decent scoring environment.

This fight is also going to be taking place at 145 pounds, which is a weight class above what Santos has been competing in thus far in the UFC. It gives credence to Lee being the more physical opponent and potentially being the deserved favorite as well.

I’m still not totally sure what to make of Lee which is the problem, and I don’t feel particularly confident in who he is. Santos isn’t very defensively sound which should give Lee scoring upside, but Santos also projects more as the type to be successful in a brawl.

Santos is priced at 8.3k but is now the slight dog at -102 to win, so I’m curious whether he’ll be owned much or not. He is also +205 to win ITD which is decent, and he has scored 106 and 120 in his two UFC wins which I think should draw some attention.

Mostly, I’m willing to use Santos as a secondary target due to upside, but I also kind of like him less than some of the other mid-range targets. I don’t think he’ll project for a high number of strikes or takedowns, but he’s willing to engage and Lee can be hurt and taken down himself. There is mild finishing equity here which is enough to put Santos firmly in play as a secondary target, especially if he’s going to be overlooked due to being the slight dog.

Lee at 7.9k is now the slight favorite at -113, but he’s coming off the KO loss and only scored 73 and 50 in his two wins, so I’m skeptical he’ll be popular.

What I like about Lee is that Santos can be landed on and taken down as well. Lee is a pretty physical athlete and has power. It’s possible he could hurt Santos. He’s also +175 to win ITD which is decent for the price.

I suppose I just feel less confident he’ll be able to pull it off, as he hasn’t looked particularly good in any recent fight. His two wins prior to the UFC were both first-round finishes though.

So again, there’s merit for finishing upside here. I think I prefer Santos of the two, but Lee falls into essentially the same bucket as a secondary mid-range target with finishing equity. Despite being the favorite, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him lower owned compared to some of these other mid-range targets.

I wouldn’t go crazy on this fight but it’s -160 to end inside the distance in total and probably won’t get too much public ownership, and I’d consider both sides viable for tournament upside.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Santos by Decision (Confidence=Low)

Brad Katona vs. Belkan Almakhan

Fight Odds: Almakhan -140, Katona +121

Odds to Finish: +225

DraftKings Salaries: Almakhan 8.6k, Katona 7.6k

Weight Class: 135

*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe

Brad Katona’s now in his 2nd UFC stint and is the only fighter to my knowledge that has won The Ultimate Fighter show twice. He’s put on some fun fights since returning but has had mixed results – he went 2-2 in his first stint, is 2-2 in his second stint and is 14-4 as a pro. Belkan Almakhan’s a recent addition to the UFC roster and had a tough draw in his debut booking against Umar Nurmagomedov who handed him his 2nd pro loss. He’ll now be entering his sophomore UFC appearance and is returning from a 14-month layoff – he’s 11-2 as a pro.

The striking component:

Katona comes from a karate background but was also a member of the Canadian national boxing team. He’s also not the biggest guy out there but plays within the mid-range to the lip of the pocket.    

His work rate has kind of been all over the board in terms of general matchups, as I’ve seen him be lower output in certain affairs but has been higher output in his recent fights. He’s got some good flurries into the pocket and will generally keep a higher guard after throwing strikes.    

However, he hasn’t shown to be very dangerous on the feet, repping only one KO in his pro career which came in his debut back in 2014. Katona’s more of just a frustrating kind of striker that’s looking to pepper.    

In his defense, he’s never been KO’d in his pro career, so he has shown to be durable as well but has gotten clocked a few times.    

His fight with Valiev was pretty close to where you could make an argument for either guy, but Katona did fine on the feet and Valiev’s a respectable striker. His outing against Gibson was also competitive but Katona’s cardio proved to be a good difference maker and he was able to hurt Gibson later in the fight.    

He was out landed by Armfield 99 to 46 at distance to where he was effectively outstruck and outmaneuvered, which wasn’t the greatest of looks but that fight played a lot closer than what the stats indicate.

Most recently, he had another gritty fight with talented prospect Jean Matsumoto where significant strike counts were even at 89 a piece, but he was outlanded at distance and ate the more impactful shots.

Overall, Katona’s a scrappy dude that’s respectable on the feet and can adapt to his opponents but also struggles to separate.

Almakhan operates in more of your traditional Euro coaster striking type of style – meaning that he’ll be lighter on his feet, fight within the mid-range, not be very high output and look to dart in and out with strikes.  

Despite his volume not being the best, he is getting the better of the overall exchanges in his fights in being able to manage distance. 

Additionally, he’s shown power components in those blitzing actions with bigger straights and explosive high kicks but does prioritize punches – 13 of 17 pro wins coming via strikes – he even hurt Nurmagomedov on the first exchange of his debut although nothing really happened standing after that.  

However, we have seen his defense break down in the latter portion of fights at times and I have seen him significantly hurt on three different occasions now.  

In his defense, he’s recovered well in all scenarios but it’s in that linear style that he plays that’s also allowed opponents to get some bursting actions off on him where his head can stay on the center line, allowing him to get caught.

At the same time, he’s still not absorbing a high volume of strikes on an exchange to exchange basis.  

Overall though, Almakhan seems like a respectable striker who can win on the feet at the UFC level.

How it plays out: Off the top, Almakhan will serve as the lankier fighter with a 1” height and 4” reach advantage. Both guy’s styles in theory can present some issues to the other. The pros for Almakhan are that he’s a more effective guy at range with better mobility and a lot more power. The pros for Katona are that his volume is more consistent, he’s better in the pocket and is more durable. The issue I have with Katona here more stems back to the Armfield fight because a lot of guys have been willing to engage Katona on the inside, which I don’t think Almakhan will do. So, I feel it’s going to be more difficult for Katona to get off on some of historic volume patterns, coupled with the fight being in a bigger cage which gives Almakhan more room to operate. But I still don’t like Almakhan in tight so if Katona is able to find his way into the pocket with more consistency, he could realize a healthy amount of success.

The wrestling/grappling component:

Katona also comes from a wrestling background and is a BJJ black belt.    

He’s definitely had success with wrestling throughout his career, but it’s also been matchup dependent in terms of how much he’s pursuing – meaning he’ll be much more consistent to go to it if he feels he does have the edge there and is finding initial success.    

He’s got three wins via submission with one being over Bryce Mitchell which was a good W – that was earlier on in Mitchell’s career though. Sometimes he’ll be aggressive in looking to pass but in other situations, he’s fine to just lay and pray or pepper within the guard.    

Defensively, he has been outwrestled before, specifically in his 1st pro loss to Merab – no shame.  But he’s been taken down multiple times in numerous other fights as well – to Katona’s credit, he’s shown a stronger get-up game so he’s usually not being controlled for extensive periods of time, even in the fights he’s conceded TDs in.  

In totality, he’s outcontrolling his opponents at a near 3:1 ratio in the UFC and has never been submitted as a pro.    

Overall, the ground is semi up and down with Katona, but it’s generally been a positive for him to win minutes in his fights – although his success has been muzzled against more capable ground fighters.

I’m unsure of Almakhan’s floor background but it’s been an aid in him winning minutes so far in his pro career.  

One of his better attributes is his reactionary-based wrestling where he can kind of lull guys into a false sense of security on the feet, and then blast under with double legs or body locks.  

He hasn’t been much of a submission threat though with only two pro wins coming via sub, and he has struggled to pass the guard of many of his opponents – even in the times that he has, opponents have been able to get back to guard.  

So he more so operates within the guard where he will open up with some GNP, but refs have also stood him up based on inactivity as well in certain fights.  

Defensively, I have seen him taken down a handful of times, but he has usually shown a good get-up game, and hips to reverse opponent TDAs to get back on top or stand back up.  

However, his first pro loss did come via submission where he got caught in a deeper power guillotine on entry back in 2020. I attribute that more to him making a mistake but once again, he’s not a proactive passer generally or on entry so that’s something that could definitely get him caught again in the future at the UFC level. 

He obviously got rinsed by Umar last time out but Umar does that to pretty much anyone that’s not elite and to Almakhan’s credit, he didn’t get finished and worked out of some tricky spots – based on that, it looks like his submission defense has leveled up a healthy amount.

Overall, Almakhan has some traditional grinding components that will give guys trouble at the UFC level if their TDD/hips aren’t on point but assessing him as a defensive commodity is still kind of difficult based on sample – his hips/scrambles were generally good regionally though.

How it plays out: Obviously we’re coming off the Umar fight for Almakhan but it’s not really a great gauge of his ground game in my opinion given Umar’s level. Both guys are good offensive wrestlers but I also think both are good defensive wrestlers and won’t be easy to hold down. I like Almakhan’s entries better than Katona’s so he probably projects to land more TDs but as alluded to, I think he’s going to struggle to control Katona and he’s not submitting him.

Interesting fight. I’ve never been a big Katona guy from a personal perspective because he’s rather annoying but I’ve always respected his skillset as a well-rounded fighter. Almakhan appears to be a decent prospect and is still only 27 years old so he’s got margin for improvement. I ultimately favor the more youthful fighter here in Almakhan as the guy who has more critical hit/big moment and TD upside. But if this fight does go a full 15 minutes, I’d anticipate it to be a relatively competitive 29-28 type of fight.

—

On DraftKings, Katona looks like a pretty reasonable secondary target to me at 7.6k.

I don’t think it’s likely he clearly wins rounds, but he generally fights very competitively and is pretty consistent to produce offense both on the feet and on the mat. Almakhan is just largely unproven to me.

Priced at 7.6k, Katona is only +121 to win and in a win, I’d expect him to produce a solid amount of offense. In his last two decision wins, Katona has scored 108 and 97, and in his last two losses, he’s scored 63 and 56 points. Essentially, it backs up my point that he’s consistent to produce offense.

I think Almakhan is a bit hard to read at this point, but I do think Katona could land 2-3 takedowns over 15 minutes and he’s likely the better submission grappler. He’s got really strong cardio and has been super durable. I’m not sure he wins but I’m willing to use him as a secondary target at this price.

The downside would come in finishing equity where Katona is only +900 ITD but again, he’s produced results despite not winning ITD, so it doesn’t matter much to me. What I will say though is that I’d be careful getting too much exposure here, as again Katona fights competitively and doesn’t exactly separate. He might simply lose, and I don’t think he needs to be an outright priority.

Ultimately, I feel decent about Katona competing and producing offense so at this price tag, he’s a solid secondary play. But I wouldn’t be aiming to come in ‘heavy” as fighters priced nearby and below have solid win equity as well.

Almakhan at 8.6k doesn’t rate out particularly well but I’m open to playing him as a contrarian target.

The issue here is that Katona is super hard to finish. Almakhan is +250 to win ITD but Katona has never lost ITD in an 18-fight, 10-year career. So it’s not fair to bet on that outcome happening at a high rate.

Additionally, I just don’t think Almakhan can dominate on the ground. Takedowns are not a guarantee at all and even if he lands a couple, I don’t know if he can really control Katona. So it doesn’t feel like a great play on paper.

However, Katona does set a consistent pace which means Almakhan will have to produce offense to win. It still doesn’t indicate a huge ceiling but for example, Matsumoto landed 89 sig. strikes and one takedown last time, and Armfield landed 64 sig. strikes and four takedowns. It gives Almakhan a reasonable floor in a win, but perhaps that is still not enough and he may only score 80 in a win.

The more I think about it, I’m just worried about the ceiling. I’d rather take chances on the ITD equity of the other mid-range fights, and it may be up to Almakhan to be the first man to finish Katona in order to reach a ceiling.

I don’t think it’s an outcome I’m really willing to bet on. He may rate out as a semi-contrarian target and be viable for unique purposes, but Almakhan will fall fairly low on the priority list for me.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Katona by Decision (Confidence=Low)