UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo (5/30/26)

Note: Please read the full analysis, that is much more important than who I pick to win. The confidence relates to my pick to win, not the path to victory. Picks are NOT bets. Matchup breakdowns are written by Brett unless otherwise noted, and all DraftKings analysis is written by Brett. Both Technical Tim and Gordon Clark will also contribute to matchup breakdowns.

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Yadong Song vs. Deiveson Figueiredo

Fight Odds: Song -600, Figueiredo +425

Odds to end ITD: -150

DraftKings Salaries: Song 9.5k, Figueiredo 6.7k

Weight Class: 135

A staple of the upper echelon of the bantamweight division, Yadong Song will get a main event spotlight at home in Macau against the former flyweight champion Deiveson Figueiredo.

Song is a veteran of the UFC after competing in the promotion since 2017, and he’s arguably now in his prime at 28 years old, holding a 22-9-1 pro record with nine wins by knockout.

Song is a great athlete, and super explosive, and those have always been his best attributes. He’s a powerful boxer and he’s been able to use his physicality to do some damage, and pick up a bunch of knockout wins along the way.

I wouldn’t say Song is exceptional at anything else though, and he’s struggled to separate himself against the top of the division. At distance Song lands 4.9 strikes per minute while absorbing 4.62 per minute which is fine, but not substantially positive.

Granted, these opponents are the best in the division, but O’Malley outlanded Song 48-36 at distance, Yan outlanded him 86-79 and Sandhagen outlanded him 86-44. Those are his last three losses.

While he’s able to stay competitive in rounds as a quality boxer, Song doesn’t nearly have the volume or range management skills to consistently win rounds against the best, and he’s therefore a bit more limited to damage and moments.

I’ve never considered Song an elite wrestler, but he’s made dramatic strides in his grappling at Team Alpha Male over the years, and he’s coming off the loss to O’Malley in which he landed 3 takedowns on 7 attempts. He still only lands 0.78 takedowns per 15 minutes and isn’t an elite finisher, but I like that he’s put effort into his offensive wrestling and I think it will only help him.

Overall, I think Song is a pretty good but not necessarily great fighter. His youth, athleticism and power will certainly allow him to compete with most opponents, but without damage as a separator, he may still be in a high percentage of competitive rounds.

Song will next take on Deiveson Figueiredo who is 4-3 since moving up from flyweight to bantamweight, most recently losing a decision to Umar Nurmagomedov.

I’ve never been the biggest fan of Figgy and now that he’s 38 years old, my opinions aren’t necessarily going to flip.

I consider Figueiredo a dangerous finisher, with power in his hands, a capable submission game, and a lot of toughness and experience.

His lack of offense has generally killed my interest in him from an analytical sense though, and it’s one of the big reasons I was constantly betting against him when he was at flyweight.

Figueiredo only lands 2.99 distance strikes per minute while absorbing 4.24 for a -1.26 ratio which is really bad. He defends strikes at 49 percent. Although he’s shed the finish or bust moniker a bit, I’ve largely considered Figgy dependent on big moments and finishes for him to win fights because on a per-minute level, he’s not extremely active.

Three of his four wins have actually come by decision since moving up to bantamweight, but they haven’t come against my favorite tier of opposition, including Rob Font, Marlon Vera and Montel Jackson. Figueiredo has been able to wrestle a bit in those fights, play a slow paced game, and do a little bit of damage. They are fine wins.

However, when he’s fought the top tier of opposition, like Sandhagen, Yan and Umar, he’s generally been destroyed. I actually thought he defended the takedowns well against Umar last time out, and that gives me some pause, but he ultimately wasn’t able to produce any offense.

In this matchup, I have to favor Song moderately because he is the better athlete in his prime, he’s a more active and damaging striker, and he’s extremely durable, fighting at home.

Yes, I have some issues with Song’s style, and I’m not convinced he dominates every second of this fight. I respect Figueiredo enough to think he could land a big shot, jump on a guillotine, or win a slow paced round.

However, from a projection standpoint, even if this fight went 5 rounds, I’d honestly expect Figueiredo to land something like 60-80 strikes, which is just not enough. He averages 1.61 takedowns per 15 minutes and could possibly land a couple here, but I don’t think he does a whole lot with them.

Winning three rounds against Song seems like a tough ask, as does knocking him out or submitting him. I expect Song to be the aggressor here, landing more often, having the better optics, with the crowd behind him.

I also think Song has more wrestling upside, despite his lack of historic success, we’ve seen Figueiredo look bad at times from his back. If Song starts to beat him up a bit and then gets on top of him, he could have success on top.

I’m not certain how likely Song is to win ITD, and the fight is rightfully expected to extend, but a mid or late round finish for Song seems somewhat reasonable if he gets momentum early.

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On DraftKings, Song is actually the most expensive fighter on the board at 9.5k which gives me pause.

Primarily, we’ll see strong win projections for the knockout threats priced below him, and there’s a variety of pivots worth considering as well. Regardless, Song is in a spot where he must crush, and likely must also stand out from the rest of the range.

That doesn’t make me feel particularly confident, considering Song hasn’t flashed an elite ceiling all that often. He’s won 11 times in the UFC and has topped 108 DK points one time, with a few other results falling in that 105 point range. I’d be happy with 105 points from Song, but is it a stand out at 9.5k? I’d guess not.

I was actually about to write that he hasn’t won many times in five round fights but he has won twice, and scored 107 and 103 in those bouts. The benefit of five rounds gives Song a much stronger floor but doesn’t necessarily guarantee an elite ceiling.

The good news is that there are plenty of options in the mid-range this week to save salary, so we can pay up if we want. It’s honestly not too difficult to fit Song in. However, it’s much tougher to fit in Song + Pavlovich and therefore you may be forced to choose between the two.

I consider Song safer of the two, safer to win and score 105 points. Pavlovich is probably more likely to score 110 though.

There’s no right or wrong answer here. In smaller fields and cash, I prefer paying up to Song I think. He has a variety of ways to score, and he can put up a reasonable result in a decision, early or mid-round finish. He’s -105 to win ITD.

In large fields, he’s not a true priority with the fight projected to extend. I still like paying up when I have the salary available but Pavlovich and others are great options too, and leaving occasional money on the table makes sense.

Figueiredo is priced at 6.7k and I’m not super interested.

Yeah, he’s a talented guy for the price and I don’t think he’s completely out of the fight, but Song is a tough matchup and Figgy is a big underdog. He’s +625 to win ITD.

I don’t think it’s crazy if you want to throw a few shares on Figgy in large fields, with a large portfolio. He’s a low-end secondary option by default with main event status. But there are many other dogs who I feel better about their win chances, and I’d rather pay up on the vast majority of my teams.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Song by TKO, RD 4 (Confidence=Medium-High)

Mingyang Zhang vs. Alonzo Menifield

Fight Odds: Zhang -240, Menifield +205

Odds to end ITD: -600

DraftKings Salaries: Zhang 8.9k, Menifield 7.3k

Weight Class: 205

Coming off a disappointing main event loss in China to Johnny Walker, Mingyang Zhang will get a second chance to make a statement in front of his home crowd this weekend against Alonzo Menifield.

Zhang is now 19-7 professionally at age 27, and he’s earned 13 wins by TKO and six by submission. If you’re keeping count, that means he’s never won by decision.

He’s also only lost once by decision, but he’s been KOd four times and submitted twice.

Zhang is the top LHW prospect out of China and I think he’s a decent athlete and competitor, but despite his run of success, it’s still difficult to believe he’ll amount to much more than a kill or be killed type at the UFC level.

He’s been fighting as a pro since 2014, and he’s obviously accrued a lot of experience in that time, with the bulk of his losses coming early in his career. He hadn’t lost since 2019 before falling against Walker in 2025.

But in that early time, he was finished quickly on several occasions. Askar Mozharov actually knocked him out in round one in 2018.

Zhang accrued a 12-fight win streak, with all 12 of his wins ending in round one, which earned him the main event against Walker. Most of those wins came against horrible competition on the Chinese regional scene, and his UFC competition has been mediocre at best.

He made his UFC debut against Brendson Ribeiro, and was able to brutally knock him out in the first round as well, after a few fun early exchanges. He also fought in Road to the UFC and won by KO in round one against Tokkos, where Zhang was actually the +450 dog. Zhang then knocked out Ozzy Diaz in two minutes.

Zhang also basically walked down Anthony Smith and beat him up for a first round stoppage. Smith tried a couple of takedown attempts but was far too slow, and couldn’t take the damage.

Against Walker, Zhang had a fine but slow paced round one before getting leg kicked to death in round two. It was one of those instances where nothing seems array, and then the fight is just over. If your leg is compromised and you can’t stand, you’re dead. That’s why leg kicks are still among the most effective techniques in MMA today.

It was a disappointing loss considering how vulnerable Walker is, and definitely poses some further questions about Zhang. But to be fair, nobody is immune from leg kicks (other than those who can check them), so I’m not writing Zhang off either.

Overall, I think Zhang’s skills are decent. Zhang is an adequate boxer I would say. He moves well and carries some speed in his feet and in his hands.

I originally thought he’d be more willing to grapple, as many of his regional TKOs have come from ground-and-pound, and I still think that’s one of his stronger attributes. I saw some of his early fights where Zhang landed a quick takedown and pounded out his opponent, and I felt like those takedowns could translate to a higher level of competition.

But it’s just tough to say for sure. It’s impossible to trust him outside of round one, but he doesn’t necessarily profile as the type who would be exhausted after a few minutes. I haven’t seen him exhausted really, just knocked out cold.

Zhang does some training out of the PI, but he also trains at Xtreme Couture in Vegas with Sean Strickland and others, and Magomed Ankalaev in the past which I like. 

Ultimately, he’s a young, kill or be killed fighter and that should be the expectation for now. But he’s starting to take real steps up in competition and will likely be pushed into the rankings sooner rather than later. I’m highly curious to see whether he can evolve past his current profile.

Next up will be 38-year-old Alonzo Menifield, who’s had a very up and down UFC career that now spans nine years from his debut on DWCS in 2017.

Menifield is 17-6-1 with nine wins by knockout and four by submission. He was largely considered an early finisher or bust to begin his career, but his last three wins have actually come by decision which shows some evolutions in his game.

Menifield is bricked up physically and strength has always been his best attribute, which is both a positive and a negative. He carries fight ending power, but he’s not necessarily able to sustain that power for a long time.

Although Menifield has picked up lots of experience and shed that narrative, I still don’t particularly trust him outside of early rounds. He’s been outlanded numerically in two of his three decision wins against Dustin Jacoby and Oumar Sy, and only outlanded Julius Walker 87-86.

In total, Menifield lands 3.77 sig strikes per minute while absorbing 3.81 per minute with a 50 percent defensive rate. He’s going to fight competitively with most, but will rarely stand out unless he can land big damage.

Additionally, Menifield only lands 0.5 takedowns per 15 minutes so he’s essentially not a grappling threat unless he’s facing super weak competition. He defends at 78 percent and is OK in the clinch.

What concerns me the most is his losses. Menifield is coming off a KO loss to Volkan Oezdemir, and that’s now five losses in a row that he’s been knocked down, with four resulting in knockouts.

I don’t think Menifield has awful durability, but it’s clearly not great, and it just makes his game shaky overall. At best, Menifield can land early damage and hurt you, but he’s arguably just as likely to get KOd as he is to land damage himself. And if the fight extends, it’s going to be a mid-paced, competitive striking affair at best.

As far as this matchup, I do think Zhang has more firepower, and is more likely to win by knockout. While he’s been knocked out himself too, the knockout losses are more concerning on the Menifield side.

The problem is, I still don’t think we can really trust Zhang outside of round one. And fighting at home in China doesn’t mean much considering his only UFC loss came in China.

The good news is that Menifield doesn’t throw leg kicks and only lands them at 8.4 percent of his total, according to MMA Labs. Menifield is more experienced in extended fights though, and I think that gives him a legit path to victory.

Ultimately, I’m going to lean toward Zhang to get an early KO. He’s bigger and more aggressive, and has more purpose to his style. I do think he could compete with Menifield in latter rounds simply because Menifield doesn’t push a pace, but I wouldn’t be super confident.

Menifield also has some knockout equity by default. He’s powerful and Zhang has been hurt. Perhaps he’d even have a better chance to win by knockout in latter rounds. Otherwise, he can win a competitive, mid-paced, ugly clinching affair.

It’s tough to be very confident here but I’m willing to buy back on Zhang again as the more youthful and more powerful striker.

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On DraftKings, this fight is -600 to end inside the distance so it feels like a pretty good one to target.

Zhang is priced at 8.9k and I expect him to be chalky. Despite coming off the loss last time, he’s priced very well and has one of the best ITD lines on the slate at -225. Plus, Menifield has been KOd badly a few times recently, so the outcome is easy.

Zhang is boom or bust, obviously. He’s risky. It is what it is. He’s averaging 111 DK points per win and there’s a strong chance a win here comes in round one as well. Honestly, Zhang rates out as one of the best tournament plays on the slate in my mind.

I don’t think it’s wrong to prioritize a fighter like Pavlovich, for example, ahead of Zhang. Nor is it wrong to be cautious with Zhang and pivot away for ownership purposes. But from a base outcome, Zhang is priced too cheaply for his win expectation and I’m happy to get moderate exposure.

Menifield is priced at 7.3k and I think you need exposure here as well.

I’m not going to rank Menifield highly because I’m not a huge fan of him, and I’m not picking him to win. It really doesn’t matter. Zhang has clear concerns outside of round one, plus some durability concerns, plus the variance. Plus the ownership and leverage you’ll get on Menifield.

At 7.3k, in a fight that’s -600 to end inside the distance, this one is just obvious. Menifield is +325 to win ITD and is extremely boom or bust, but he’s worth a sprinkle given the situation. I won’t aim to be drastically above the field but I think Menifield is a decent upside and leverage option for the price tag.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Zhang by TKO, RD 1 (Confidence=Medium-Low)

Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tallison Teixeira

Fight Odds: Pavlovich -600, Teixeira +425

Odds to end ITD: -600

DraftKings Salaries: Pavlovich 9.4k, Teixeira 6.8k

Weight Class: HW

Two fighters with killer instinct in the HW division will square up as Sergei Pavlovich takes on Tallison Teixeira.

Pavlovich is 8-3 in the UFC with six wins by knockout, and coincidentally, those six knockouts all occurred in consecutive fights between 2019-2023 that led Pavlovich to a title shot against Tom Aspinall.

Unfortunately, Pavlovich fell short there and was brutally KOd in 1 minute and 9 seconds. Since then, he’s actually fought to a decision three times in a row, losing to Alexander Volkov but beating Jair Rozenstruik and most recently Waldo Cortes-Acosta.

It’s an interesting resume, in part because 20 of Pavlovich’s 26 pro fights have ended inside the distance, and for the majority of his UFC career, he was considered an early KO or bust type of striker.

However, after the KO loss to Aspinall, we’ve seen him go the distance in three consecutive fights, which I do think is beneficial from the standpoint of allowing Pavlovich to maximize his career ceiling, but it also makes him a more tricky fighter to analyze.

From a macro point of view, Pavlovich is a dangerous kickboxer. 15 of his 20 wins have come by knockout and most have come in round one. He’s got legit power early in fights.

I’ve been skeptical of his ground game for a while because he did lose his UFC debut to Alistair Overeem, where he was taken down and beaten up to a TKO stoppage in the first round. But that fight was in 2018 and we have not seen him taken down since, so it’s tough to quantify.

Technically, I do like Pavlovich. He is landing 4.43 sig strikes per minute while absorbing 3.62 per minute with a 55 percent defensive rate. His volume is really nothing special and in his decisions, he’s only landed 61, 25 and 46 significant strikes. He can be beaten on volume like we saw when Volkov bested him and doubled him up on strikes.

His most recent win over Cortes-Acosta was good though, and it was a more slow paced, technical affair where Pavlovich still threatened with power. Cortes-Acosta is a solid opponent, and I ultimately think Pavlovich can hang with most in the division.

There’s just a high level of variance in his fights because they can end quickly, and if they don’t, the latter rounds will be a bit shaky. Pavlovich can also be hurt. He can be taken down. There’s too many question marks for me to be extremely confident in him but in general, Pavlovich rates out as a strong kickboxer in this division with plenty of early finishing equity.

He’ll be taking on Tallison Teixeira this weekend, who like Pavlovich, got KOd for the first time in his career by Derrick Lewis in 2025 and suddenly became a wrestler after that, fighting life or death with Tai Tuivasa to his first career decision last time out.

Teixeira is 9-1 as a pro with 7 wins by TKO and 1 by submission, and his last fight is the only time he’s seen a round two, let alone round three or a decision.

Teixeira is massive for the division at 6’7” and it’s a good thing his parents named him Tallison and not Shortison..

Anyways, Teixeira made his UFC debut in February 2025, and promptly knocked out Justin Tafa in just 35 seconds. He previously earned his contract with another quick finish on the Contender Series, knocking out his opponent in less than two minutes in a high-action affair. 

In that fight, Teixeira actually ate a bunch of shots in those exchanges, and I definitely had longer term questions about his defense. He didn’t look super evasive, and although he didn’t react poorly to eating those shots, it did feel like a bigger hitter could potentially put him away.

That’s what happened when Teixeira fought Lewis, who he still hurt immediately, but then got hurt himself following up for the finish. The fight only lasted 35 seconds and I don’t want to make a huge deal out of it, but it’s pretty clear Texeiira is liable to be hurt himself.

Most recently, Teixeira wrestled aggressively against Tuivasa, taking him down three times on nine attempts for seven minutes of control. Both guys nearly had cardiac arrest toward the end of that matchup, and it was one of the things that prompted me to get on Sutherland against Tuivasa last time out.

I still do really like Teixeira’s offensive output and ability to inflict damage. Part of it does come down to his size as well. He’s massive and he’s powerful. I also think he’s technically solid offensively. He can throw the jab. He can throw leg kicks, and high kicks. He looks offensively potent to me and I think it’s pretty likely Teixeira can knock out most of the mid or even upper tiers of this heavyweight division on pure potency alone.

Like Pavlovich, there’s just a lot of variance in Teixeira’s fights. He can win ITD quickly, or he can be hurt and finished. He can wrestle some but he’s clearly not an exceptional round winner, and his cardio late in fights is suspect.

Because of that, this matchup is both simple and complex. Pavlovich is favored moderately because he’s a more technical striker, more defensively sound and more experienced. It seems likely that Pavlovich can either hurt Teixeira early, or outstrike him over three rounds.

With that said, Teixeira will still tower over Pavlovich, and we’ve already seen Pavlovich knocked out in a minute in the UFC. We’ve also seen Pavlovich badly outgrappled and finished the last time he was taken down. I don’t really think Teixeira is capable of duplicating the Overeem performance, but I give him some chance of success if he ends up on top with any consistency.

Mostly, I’ve seen enough from Pavlovich to tell me he can fight OK later in fights, whereas I do not trust Teixeira. I expect the biggest threat from Teixeira to come early, and if he doesn’t get a round one KO, I don’t think he will win at all.

I’m not willing to die on that hill necessarily because Pavlovich’s biggest threat will likely also come early. If the two just clash in the center of the Octagon in the first few minutes, that’s a fight I favor Pavlovich but not heavily.. Teixeira could absolutely score an early knockout.

I think Pavlovich is more likely to land cleanly though, and especially so as rounds progress, so I favor him to win this fight. I probably wouldn’t line it as heavily in his favor as the public does though, just given the high-variance nature of striking exchanges.

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On DraftKings, this is a pretty standard high upside and high risk HW spot.

Like the fight above, this one is -600 to end inside the distance and the winner will have a strong win expectation. Unlike the fight above, this fight is costly to roster.

Pavlovich is priced at 9.4k and he’s -300 to win ITD. He’s averaging 106 DK points per win, and that includes his decisions which scored 55 and 85. If he gets a first round KO, the expectation is closer to 110.

The issue, of course, is that winning by knockout in round one is not as easy as it sounds. Especially as Pavlovich has now gone the distance twice in a row, and Teixeira just fought to a decision, I do not think this fight ending in round one is a guarantee. Pavlovich is +105 to win in round one.

I do think Pavlovich winning by RD 1 KO is among the more likely outcomes of the matchup though, and therefore 110 points is pretty reasonable. He could be optimal at that number, but it’s also potentially the chance he has to be optimal.

I consider Song safer than Pavlovich outright, and I think Zhang is a better play for the price. I think Haddon, Asakura, Tsuruya as examples are good pivots. You really don’t have to play Pavlovich.

If I can afford him though, I still do want exposure. I think it’s OK if you want to prioritize him straight up over Song, and if you really feel confident here, you can force him into builds. He has the best ITD line on the slate so it’s not a bad spot to invest.

This is just a boom/bust matchup at a big price tag, and so there are many different ways to go about it. I will likely end up with moderate exposure to Pavlovich, but I won’t be afraid to pivot away or start my lineups in the mid 9s if I can’t afford him.

Teixeira is priced at 6.8k, and I think he’s in play.

I’ve gone back and forth on whether he’s a good play, or just a viable play. It seems like most people are very confident in Pavlovich this week. I get it, but there’s just so much variance in striking exchanges.

If you really think Pavlovich is -600 to win as the odds indicate, then I don’t think Teixeira is a great option. He’s still a viable, boom/bust target with upside and leverage, but I wouldn’t be excited. If perhaps the odds are wrong, then Teixeira is a good play who is likely to be optimal in a win and set you apart from the field.

He is only +425 to win ITD but at low public ownership, I still like mixing him in. Perhaps he’s only worthy of dart throw consideration but I do think he’s offensively potent enough to give him a shot in this kind of fight. I wouldn’t mind being slightly above the field myself, though I still like paying up when I have the ability to do so.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Pavlovich by TKO, RD 1 (Confidence=Medium)

Kai Asakura vs. Cameron Smotherman

Fight Odds: Asakura -290, Smotherman +245

Odds to end ITD: -170

DraftKings Salaries: Asakura 9k, Smotherman 7.2k

Weight Class: 135

*Matchup analysis written by Gordon Clark

The fight night continues as former flyweight title challenger Kai Asakura moves up in weight to take on Cameron Smotherman. Let’s dive in.

Kai Asakura was catapulted into the rankings when he signed with the UFC last year, as he was immediately slotted in for a flyweight title shot against Alexandre Pantoja. 

Asakura was no stranger to top level competition, as he went 13-3 in RIZIN and was the champion of that promotion on multiple occasions. With wins on his record over Manel Kape and Kyoji Horiguchi, amongst others, the expectations for Kai were high to start with the promotion. Unfortunately, it wasn’t the best start, as he was submitted by Pantoja in his debut and lost his sophomore bout to Tim Elliott last August. Now, at 32 years old, the 21-6 Japanese fighter moves back up to 135 and looks for his first UFC victory. 

Asakura is a quick, powerful boxer who is built on moments. He is currently only averaging 2.27 strikes landed per minute in the UFC and his lower volume style can hold him back at times, but when he connects, he hits very hard. He has a 73% finish rate with 13 KOs and 2 submissions. He has big shots and explosive knees that can put your lights out.

You may think his grappling is extremely deficient as that’s how he’s lost his first two UFC bouts, but those are the only submission losses on his record. He has a pretty solid first level of takedown defense and can scramble up well, but he gives up his back in transition and there has been a blueprint at this level to succeed with takedowns. 

Asakura has now been finished in 5/6 pro losses. Yes, they came against good competition and I wouldn’t call him chinny per se, but you can definitely hurt and finish this guy. Despite his lack of volume and minute winning, he is 5-1 to the decision and his moments on the feet are typically enough to sway the judges.

He throws with bad intentions and can put anyone’s lights out. That’ll be the idea for Asakura. Go out there, look to win moments and hunt the finish. He has great power and incredible speed and when he’s on his game, he can look like a true prospect, although I would like him to shore up that volume at this level. 

Overall, Asakura is a solid prospect with great power and finishing ability although he has struggled to find his footing in the UFC, and we’ve seen low volume and poor ground scrambles hold him back so far.

Cameron Smotherman looks to get back in the win column this weekend as the 28 year old has dropped his last two inside the Octagon. He actually dropped his Contender Series bout in 2023, where he lost via KO to Grigoriou and fell short of his UFC goal. 

He managed to get some more regional wins and sign with the UFC on short notice in October of 2024, where he pulled off a quite impressive upset of Jake Hadley. Since then, he has struggled with the grappling and pace of Sirhey Sidey and Ricky Simon, but survived to decision against both and even won a round on a judges scorecard in both. 

Smotherman is a boxer. He’s got solid length, a good jab and decent footwork. If he gets the fight he wants, he will to back you up with his pressure and land straight shots from range. He’s got solid cardio and can win optics on the feet, and is currently landing 4.07 strikes per minute. He isn’t the most dangerous boxer, with a 58% finish rate split between 6 KOs and 1 sub, but can look to overwhelm you if you aren’t on his level. 

However, there are some concerns about Smotherman. The first is the ground game. Although he has a 62% TDD, he has been taken down 8 times in his last two bouts and given up over 9 minutes and 4 minutes of control in those bouts. He can be taken down and held down and although he has never been submitted, it’s tough to win minutes off your back. 

The other issue for Smotherman is durability. I really just don’t know how good or bad it is. Sometimes it holds up well and he can walk forward, but he has now been KO’d in round one twice now, once in 60 seconds and also in 13 seconds on the regional scene. I mean being out cold to Charalampos Grigoriou and CJ Jimenez (now 5-6) is not the best look. 

We also have to acknowledge that Smotherman did have a viral weigh-in moment, as he fainted and hit his head pretty badly back in January. Whether that’s a weight cut related issue or something else, you never want to see that. It was a pretty scary look and I hope he has that figured out, because it’s not something you want to see happening with weight cuts. 

Overall, Smotherman can look really good when he gets his game going. His pace, range boxing and output will help him win minutes and he has a solid frame at this division to get his punches off. But with struggles on the ground and durability, he’s a tough fighter to back as he can lose moments if he’s hurt, lose minutes in the grappling or just be put out cold (by punches or weight cuts, apparently). 

Smotherman can have success but I would prefer to back him in bouts where he is able to stick to his game plan, until he shores up that ground game and/or durability. 

At the end of the day, we have to acknowledge this is a big step down in competition for Asakura. There’s no hiding that I’m historically lower on Smotherman than the field. I was actually picking Turcios to beat him, before he was KO’d by the scale in January. Although he does have solid volume and minute winning boxing, I don’t see him as the biggest power threat and he needs his opponent to play his range boxing game for him to have success. If you can wrestle, you can beat him. If you have power, you can knock him out. Even from range, he’s lost multiple decisions and can lose optics due to moments. 

So yes, I’m picking Asakura here. I think it’s a large step down in comp, Asakura will have the speed edge and finishing upside and frankly, I just don’t love Smotherman’s game. But the truth is, this isn’t as much of a smash matchup for Kai as I thought it was pre-tape. Although I think Kai finds the chin with his speed and power, if he doesn’t it could get greasy. 

Kai will play Smotherman’s game from range and engage in boxing from the outside. If that’s the case, Kai does lack volume and I wouldn’t be all too surprised to see Smotherman get ahead on the scorecards with volume. However, I still have to pick Asakura to win because of his power, speed, level of competition and durability edge, maybe even able to mix in takedowns if he so pleases. So give me Asakura, but I would hope he finds the chin if I’m to back him at this price tag

—

On DraftKings, I view Asakura as a pretty volatile but potentially sneaky target.

He’s priced at 9k, and coming off back-to-back poor losses, I really doubt the field prioritizes him in any way. Especially with Zhang, Pavlovich and Song in the same range, I think Asakura could potentially be semi-contrarian.

I understand why. It’s not simply that he lost to Pantoja or Elliott but he just did not look like he was on the same level of those guys. Smotherman is a completely different matchup but Asakura is moving up in weight and Smotherman is a capable striker.

The reality is, Asakura needs an early knockout to hit. At 9k, I’m never going to be super excited by it. However, Zhang and Pavlovich fit that same mold, though they are more likely to hit, they don’t necessarily carry much wider windows than Asakura does.

Asakura is -105 to win ITD which is OK, though it’s not on the same level as those other names mentioned, and it’s partially why he won’t be as owned.

I don’t think Asakura is some phenomenal play. Knockouts are so hard to predict. However, he is a dangerous striker, Smotherman has been KOd early before, and he’s coming off that weird weight cut issue. An early KO for Asakura is reasonable.

Considering we could get Asakura in the teens ownership, I think he’s a pretty strong contrarian option. I’m not going to be super aggressive here but I can understand the strategy behind coming in overweight and/or pivoting onto him off some of the other chalky targets nearby.

Smotherman is priced at 7.2k and I think he’s a viable option as well.

Clearly, I’d feel better about targeting him if he could wrestle, but we can’t count on that. And yes, Asakura has better wins than Smotherman. Asakura has also been knocked out by both Kape and Horiguchi. I’m not completely sold on him in the UFC.

I view Smotherman as a low expectation, variance based punt. He’s super cheap so it’s not a massive risk to play him a bit. He very likely gets the fight he wants, where he could land a random shot or win on volume. Not all of those outcomes score well but I wouldn’t be shocked if he won.

Smotherman is only +400 to win ITD so I don’t think you can really rely on this play, but if you need a punt below the mid 7s, I think Smotherman has some low-end viability.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Smotherman by Decision (Confidence=Low)

Jake Matthews vs. Carlston Harris

Fight Odds: Matthews -350, Harris +285

Odds to end ITD: -175

DraftKings Salaries: Matthews 9.2k, Harris 7k

Weight Class: 170

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

We have a middle class matchup here in the welterweight division between Jake Matthews and Carlston Harris.

Matthews is a decent striker. He lands 3.34 significant strikes per minute, which is not very high, so I do worry about his volume to a degree. However, he only absorbs 2.62 significant strikes per minute and defends strikes at 60 percent. So although he is not landing a lot, he is still landing more than he absorbs and has a decent striking ratio.

Matthews is kind of weird on the feet. He has some pop, but he kind of just stays out of range and then springs in to land his strikes. His constant staying out of range striking style is one of the main reasons why not many strikes are landed in his fights. He kind of just limits engagements in general. 

Even though his striking style is a bit strange, I still consider him a competent striker. I did think the Matthew Semelsberger fight was concerning though. Matthews was knocked down 3 times and clearly struggled with the physicality and power of Semelsberger. Still though, Matthews is a fine striker and he also has a little bit of power himself.

Matthews is also a BJJ black belt and a competent grappler. Matthews lands 1.44 takedowns per 15 minutes, which is decent, so he can string some takedowns together. He is competent at riding top position, but I don’t expect him to outwrestle above-average grapplers at welterweight. He has won by submission 7 times in the UFC but mostly against weak competition.

Matthews is a decent defensive grappler. He defends takedowns at 64 percent and can scramble up decently well. He was badly outwrestled by Sean Brady and has been outgrappled in other losses as well. He lost by third round submission in his most recent fight against Neil Magny which was concerning. So I do think he will continue to have issues against above average-grapplers in this division. However, I don’t expect it to be a huge liability against the mid to lower tier fighters of this division.

Matthews will be taking on Carlston Harris. Harris is from Guyana and racked up a decently impressive record on the regional scene beating some decent guys like Michel Pereira and Wellington Turman. 

Harris then came to the UFC and is 4-3 with first round finishes against Christian Aguilera and Impa Kasanganay. He hurt Aguilera on the feet and then submitted him and he knocked Kasanganay out. He then got knocked out by Rahmanov and dominantly beat Jared Gooden in a 3 round decision. Since then he has submitted Jeremiah Wells, but was knocked out in his last two losses against Khaos Williams and Santiago Ponzinibbio.

I don’t consider Harris a great technical striker, but I do think he is somewhat dangerous. He is somewhat athletic, and has power. He springs in and out of range well, understands distance to a degree, and can time his shots well. He also will counter opponents who spring into range. I don’t think Harris is a guy who will outland technical strikers on the feet though, but I think he is at least live to hurt people on the feet and I will never completely rule out his chances on the feet because of his ability to hurt people. He is at least aggressive too which I like. 

He is still just not very technical though and has gotten knocked out badly in his last two matchups. He is also 38 years old so I am just a little concerned.

Harris is actually mostly a grappler and will go to that path when he has a grappling advantage. He kind of reminds me of Alan Patrick. He is tall and lanky and he isn’t a super technical wrestler, but he is very tenacious and willing to wrestle. Like Patrick, I don’t think he will go out there and outwrestle good wrestlers. Even Aguilera shrugged off a lot of Harris’ wrestling until Harris hurt him. However, Harris will absolutely melt weak grapplers. He wrecked Jared Gooden on the mat and landed 5 takedowns. 

Harris has a decent double leg, decent clinch takedowns, and can take advantage of front chokes in transitions. He really likes going to the clinch, getting a body lock and just holding his opponents as well. He also has okay cardio, can fight hard and isn’t at risk to gas.

Harris defends takedowns at 55 percent and was mostly outwrestled by Jeremiah Wells. However, he seems to have decent takedown defense and my guess is that he can work up if taken down against most guys. I was impressed with his TDD against Rakhmonov. He defended most takedowns against him and impressively scrambled up the one time he was taken down.

As far as this matchup goes, I suppose either guy can take the other down. Both guys are decent offensive wrestlers and both guys are okay defending takedowns but not perfect. My guess is that the wrestling will generally cancel out though and get neutralized. I feel like either guy can probably defend takedowns or scramble up. I feel like someone will have success on the mat if the other guy is hurt or fatigued more than anything.

Since the grappling will probably neutralize to a degree, I think the striking is important here. I just trust Matthews as a striker more. I think Matthews is a more technical striker, he is seven years younger and I trust his durability more as well. I also think Matthews is better defensively. So my guess is Matthews is a little better on the feet and skates to a decision. I also think Matthews has a realistic chance at a KO too given the recent KOs Harris has suffered.

I still don’t always trust Matthews. He finds ways to lose and I do think there is variance here. Harris is somewhat dangerous with his power on the feet and front choke submissions. So Harris finding a way to have moments or finish Matthews really wouldn’t surprise me. Overall though, I think it is pretty clear Matthews is a more technical striker and the fight likely extends on the feet at times. So Matthews is the pick.

—

On DraftKings, I view Matthews as a very viable pivot within this top range but I honestly don’t know how often I can click on him.

There are two things that bug me here. The first is that Matthews is historically inconsistent, and I just never feel safe with him. He finds ways to lose, which includes his last fight where he literally won by submission and still lost. Yes, you heard that correctly.

The other more important thing is that Matthews has never really shown a top level ceiling. He is averaging 89 DK points per win but in his last 12 wins, he’s only topped 100 points ONCE. That was a score of 102. That includes five wins inside the distance.

So yeah, Matthews can box. He can win by knockout. He can wrestle, and he can win by submission. He’s -105 to win ITD which is OK. I don’t fully trust him to do it, and even if he does win ITD, he still has to contend with other big names on this slate.

I’m just really worried that Matthews scores like 97 in a second round win, or 103 in a first round win, and misses the optimal because Pavlovich scores 115. I don’t think Matthews will be super popular at this price which is why I do view him as a viable pivot, but I’m not dying to prioritize him outright.

Harris is priced at 7k and is a fine punt.

What it comes down to is that Matthews blows fights. He’s been submitted a few times and knocked out as well. Harris is dangerous enough that I could see something random happening.

The problem is that Matthews is better than Harris everywhere. I don’t see any area where Harris is really at an advantage, so it mostly comes down to variance which I don’t love.

Also, Matthews doesn’t absorb a ton of offense so I’m not sold Harris would be scoring a ton of points before the finish. Matthews has lost and allowed 85, 63, etc.

Harris is +400 to win ITD. Obviously if he wins ITD, you’re going to want some exposure. At the price tag, he’s a viable low-end play. I personally lean against targeting him too often though as I just don’t love the matchup, and I’d rather pay up a bit more for better opportunities.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Matthews by Decision (Confidence=Medium)

Alex Perez vs. Sumudaerji

Fight Odds: Perez -143, Sumudaerji +123

Odds to end ITD: -125

DraftKings Salaries: Perez 8.5k, Sumudaerji 7.7k

Weight Class: 125

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

We have an interesting fight here as former title challenger Alex Perez will be taking on Sumudaerji.

I like Perez. He is a well-rounded fighter who is capable of winning rounds and fights in a variety of ways. The issue with Perez is he has had long layoffs so often as he has had multiple knee injuries. So sometimes it is just hard to know what form Perez will be in. 

However, Perez has been fighting often against great competition and getting wins here and there, and his losses have been to the best flyweights in the world. So he is clearly still capable. He is coming off a first round knockout win against Charles Johnson which was impressive.

Perez excels as a wrestler. He lands 2.21 takedowns per 15 minutes and lands takedowns at 48 percent. I quite like his chain wrestling and shots. He has a nasty single leg and double leg and can also ride well in top position. 

Perez hasn’t wrestled as often in some fights, but it is because he has been fighting elite grapplers. His fights that have extended have come against Pantoja, Mokaev, Nicolau, Taira, and Almabayev. He still averaged a takedown per fight in those fights too. Those aren’t fights I would expect him to be able to freely wrestle either. 

When Perez had more wrestling friendly fights against Jordan Espinosa and Mark De La Rosa, he went to the wrestling immediately and dominated. He took De La Rosa down a few times and controlled him for most of the fight. He took Espinosa down and submitted him easily. When Perez fought Formiga, he knew he needed to strike and didn’t even attempt a takedown. I tend to think Perez knows when he needs to wrestle or strike which is good.

Perez also has good takedown defense at 75 percent and is rarely ever stuck in bottom position.  He defended 17 of 20 takedowns against Muhammad Mokaev which was super impressive.

Perez has offensive submission ability as well and is capable of anaconda / front headlock chokes as well as arm triangles. 

Perez has been submitted a few times in his career. However, only three submission losses have come in the last six years, against Fig, Pantoja, and Almabayev who are dangerous, so I don’t think his submission defense is a major liability. However, it makes me nervous to a degree.

Perez is also a decent striker. He lands 4.41 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.20. He lands strikes at 46 percent and defends at a decent 59 percent. His numbers are good and he is solid, but I do think his striking numbers are skewed to a degree. He landed 84 significant strikes on Jose Torres in 3:46 of fighting (which honestly may be some type of record) and a lot of the strikes landed were when Torres was clearly compromised from already being hurt. 

Furthermore, Perez has also landed a decent amount of ground strikes. So I don’t think he is quite as good of a striker as his numbers indicate. I mean he was outlanded by Eric Shelton and Benavidez at distance. I also think Perez’s volume has lacked in his recent fights as well. I feel like he could have thrown more against Mokaev and Nicolau.

However, Perez is still formidable as a striker and he also has power on the feet and very good calf kicks. You saw his power vs Johnson.

Perez will be taking on Sumudaerji. Sumudaerji is legitimately one of the worst grapplers in the UFC. It is very rare to see a fighter in the lower weight classes this bad on the mat. He is absolutely awful when he is grounded and gives up advances of positions, and can be pummeled with ground-and-pound or submitted easily.

I do think Sumudaerji has some decent first layer takedown defense though. He defends takedowns at 62 percent and can defend some tds here and there. When he gives up a takedown though, he is just awful on the mat.

To be fair though, I did see at least some improvement in Sumudaerji’s scrambling against Mitch Raposo. Mudaerji was taken down 6 times on 19 attempts but he worked up a little better and was only controlled for 4 minutes. He actually started giving up his back against Raposo and doing a classic wrestler stand up which is good, and it shows he learned something. His defensive wrestling has definitely gotten much better but I still think it is exploitable.

Sumudaerji is a solid striker. He is tall at 5’8” which is huge for this division. He also fights long and controls range well, fighting out of the southpaw stance. He has a piston left hand and is very accurate and powerful with it. He also has a good kicking game. He can hurt people on the feet in this division. He lands 4.43 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.35 in return. He can continue to win striking fights in this division.

I do think Sumudaerji has suspect durability though. He has been hurt a few times in the UFC now and even Matt Schnell was hurting him badly on the feet.

As far as this matchup goes, Sumudaerji is capable of winning this. If the fight stays standing, I think Sumudaerji is the better round winning striker and fights much longer. My guess is Sumudaerji can strike at distance and skate to a decision using his long range tools from the outside if this fight stays standing. Perez does have tendencies to strike as well. So if Perez doesn’t wrestle or Mudaerji stops any wrestling that comes his way, Sumudaerji will likely be victorious this weekend. 

I am leaning against a knockout though. Perez gets finished often but it almost never comes from knockout. If the fight stays standing, I think Sumudaerji by decision is most likely.

However, I tend to think Perez is going to wrestle here. He shoots about 5 takedowns per fight but he completely changes his game plan depending on who he is fighting. Any extremely wrestling friendly fight, he has wrestled hard and I expect him to wrestle here. I do think Perez will mix in some strikes and I actually think he could land something big here. However, Perez needs to wrestle to win and I expect him to wrestle.

As far as the wrestling goes, Sumudaerji has improved defensively, but I think Perez is a far better wrestler than Raposo. Perez has a dirty single leg and he is also a great rider of the back and uses some folkstyle wrestling techniques from that position (watch the De La Rosa fight) that I think will confuse Sumudaerji. Perez also has a heavy top game and I just think he will be a little too much for Sumudaerji on the mat. I actually think Perez is going to finish Sumudaerji on the mat.

I will say that Sumudaerji has attempted some decent submissions lately and Perez is vulnerable to subs (although against elite grapplers) so don’t be shocked if there is a close submission attempt for Sumudaerji. However, my guess is Perez will fight it off.

All in all though, I think this is a fight Perez can show his wrestling game which he has not been able to highlight for a long time given his matchups recently.

—

On DraftKings, it’s a classic Alex Perez fight which I find nearly impossible to call.

I have probably been one of Perez’ biggest supporters since he entered the UFC, but man I have paid for it. He’s cleanly beating guys like Taira and Almabayev, before getting finished in the mid-rounds. He’s beating the crap out of guys like Charles Johnson and Matheus Nicolau.

Perez has just been so inconsistent, which is the problem. He is a strong boxer with fight ending ability. He throws nasty leg kicks. He can wrestle. His Fight IQ has been questionable and his submission defense has been questionable, among other things. He can’t stay healthy.

At his best, Perez could be champion of this division. It’s been impossible for him to string together good wins consistently.

In this matchup, I have some hope for Perez. I think there are outcomes where he takes Sumudaerji down, beats him up and finishes him for a massive score. He could also choose not to wrestle.

I’m not going to pretend I’m confident in Perez winning this fight but I do see fantasy upside in his style. He is averaging 106 DK points per win which is crazy, and he’s topped 120 three times.

In this fight, Perez is only +175 to win ITD which is mediocre. The good news is that I really don’t think a striking based decision win makes sense for him. Wrestling or damage have to be in play, which boosts his floor and ceiling.

I consider Perez a decent upside target in the mid range at 8.5k. I don’t think you have to be high on him this week, as there are paths for him to fail for sure. He’s shown one of the better ceilings on the slate though, in a matchup where Sumudaerji has given up 100 or more DK points in three of his four UFC losses.

I’ll have moderate exposure to Perez by default. He’ll project well in a win, and he’s priced nicely. I wouldn’t say he’s particularly safe though.

Sumudaerji is priced at 7.7k and is more knockout dependent which is tricky. Although I think of Perez as being vulnerable and losing ITD, he’s really never been knocked out. He’s been hurt from a headbutt and he’s torn up his knee, but those are his two TKO losses. He’s never suffered a knockdown.

Because Sumudaerji isn’t an elite sub grappler and doesn’t wrestle a ton, I do view him as somewhat dependent on a knockout. If Perez can’t grapple though, maybe his historic shortcomings lead to another random ITD loss here too.

Sumudaerji is +300 to win ITD which isn’t particularly good. His floor is really weak and his ceiling is questionable. I don’t consider him a priority.

There is some merit to mixing in Su as a secondary target just given how Perez loses ITD all the time, but I think a 60 strike decision is definitely on the table as well. I lean against forcing in lots of exposure to Sumudaerji but I do think there are some outcomes where he scores well, and he’s a viable low-end mix-in if your portfolio is big enough.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Perez by Anaconda, RD 2 (Confidence=Low)

UNDERCARD

Luis Felipe Dias vs. Yi Sak Lee

Fight Odds: Dias -172, Lee +147

Odds to end ITD: -200

DraftKings Salaries: Dias 8.6k, Lee 7.6k

Weight Class: 185

Two questionable newcomers in Luis Felipe Dias and Yi Sak Lee step into the Octagon on Saturday for the first time.

Dias is 16-5 professionally at age 31, and he’s earned seven wins by knockout and eight by submission. He’s coming off a submission win on the Contender Series in October.

I don’t think particularly highly of Dias. He’s a muscled up grappler with some finishing ability, but I don’t think his process is particularly strong.

Dias is a black belt in jiu-jitsu and I suppose that’s his biggest strength. He looked pretty decent in taking the back on DWCS where he ultimately found the finish, and a few of his recent wins have come by RNC.

But I don’t think Dias is incredibly strong on the mat. I’ve seen him mounted, I’ve seen him armbarred, and he’ll do things like go after leg locks from the bottom which can get you into trouble.

Additionally, his wrestling isn’t strong. He doesn’t dive through takedowns very well so he’ll often end up stuffed or on the bottom when he shoots. His takedown defense isn’t very strong in general either, and he was taken down a couple of times on DWCS.

I do like that he’s putting more effort into offensive takedowns though, and he landed four on DWCS. They were mostly body lock takedowns which he was converting into back takes. It’s a fine recipe for success, but I think largely will benefit him against weaker competition.

On the feet, Dias throws hard and has power, but his technique is a little off. He reaches on punches and he’s kind of slow defensively, so he can be tagged. He’s been hurt a few times and KOd twice, both times in round three. He throws some hard leg kicks which is nice.

The good news is that he’s experienced and has been competing as a pro since 2017, so he’s arguably in his prime now. He’s leveled up over the years, and he’s also juiced up his physical build substantially.

At his current state, I think Dias is OK. This is the middleweight division so it doesn’t take much to be successful, and Dias has some ability to grapple with physicality, and throw power punches.

I ultimately don’t love his wrestling enough to think he can make work of good competition, and his striking defense is suspect as well. My best guess is he can beat some weak grapplers and have some early success in fights, but his success will be capped to the mid-tier of the division.

He’ll be taking on Yi Sak Lee who is 8-1 professionally at age 26, and has earned four wins by knockout and three by submission.

Lee trains out of Korean Top Team, but he seems like a random regional addition to the roster as his quality of competition has been pretty mediocre.

Supposedly he has a background in Judo, but I’m not too sure what standout skills he carries. A lot of his early wins are taking guys down, mounting them and beating them up. His back taking game looks OK, and some of his takedowns are fine.

The primary issue is that we don’t have a lot of tape on Lee, but I did watch his most recent loss in 2024 which is pretty concerning. He lost to a 12-9 guy named Aglian Thanigasalam who kind of looks like a worse version of Dias.

In that fight, Lee was taken down a handful of times in the first round, but he popped up pretty well.  He stuffed some shots, and he forced striking exchanges. His boxing looked kind of weak though, and what really stood out to me was how massive this guy’s head is. Like, he has a very hittable face unfortunately.

Both he and his opponent were tired by the end of round one, and then in round two, Lee was taken down, gave up his back and was choked out. Since that loss, he’s picked up a couple of subs on the regional scene against 2-3 and 5-2 opponents.

My best guess is that Lee can beat low level grapplers, and that’s about it. He is surely tough as most Koreans are, but he also looks super hittable and I worry about his striking defense. Outside of random power, it would be hard for me to trust Lee on the feet.

On the mat, perhaps he’s OK. His early grappling defense seemed decent enough so I don’t think one takedown attempt against him will be the end of the fight. He can also land some takedowns of his own, where his top sub game is fine.

Losing to that random dude in 2024 and getting choked out wasn’t a great look though, and it’s pretty hard for me to be confident in him having any real success at the UFC level. He’s only 26 years old though so perhaps he’s improving.

In this matchup, I have to favor Dias who is more physical and more experienced. The primary thing to give me pause is that Dias isn’t a great defensive wrestler, so maybe Lee has a real path to victory taking him down. We’ve even seen Dias mounted and subbed. So I wouldn’t rule anything out.

However, Dias should be more physical and is probably the better grappler outright. I worry his offensive wrestling isn’t good enough to dominate, but he has similar upside to what we saw on DWCS, landing some takedowns and transitioning to the back where a RNC is possible.

On the feet, I think Dias is more dangerous. He throws with more power and I’d guess he’s more durable at this point. I wouldn’t be surprised if he won by knockout, or hurt Lee early. I’m skeptical of Lee facing adversity ultimately.

I suppose I am picking Dias to win here, after some ugly early exchanges. It’s hard to be confident in any one aspect but I just don’t trust Lee to fight out of much adversity for multiple rounds. I think he could hurt Dias early or take him down, and perhaps if his cardio has drastically improved, he has a decision chance. That’s hard to bet on.

I think Dias likely wears on him enough to get a mid-round stoppage, but I’m not sold he’ll run away with the fight in the first round and Lee might be able to put up some resistance.

—

On DraftKings, I suppose I want to target this fight as it could be messy and could end inside the distance.

Dias is priced at 8.6k and he’s my preferred target. He has some early finishing equity and could land takedowns. He’s +115 to win ITD which is fine but not spectacular.

He’ll ultimately fall into the boom or bust category since if he doesn’t get a finish, I highly doubt he accrues enough points to be optimal. But these fighters are so low level that I’m hopeful we’ll see scoring take place.

There’s no reason to be confident here, but I like the hectic nature of the matchup, and I think Dias is a very strong mid-range option who can flash upside in a finish. I’d be happy to come in overweight if the field is scared off.

Lee is priced at 7.6k and the reality is if he wins, he’s probably scoring well.

Lee is +260 to win ITD and I guess a win for him would come ITD. And it could come via grappling. He can definitely score 100 points, and he’s not a big underdog.

I am pretty sure Lee sucks, so I’m not dying to target him necessarily. I don’t think he’s clearly the best target within this range. But he does have upside in a low-level, high-variance fight, so I’m willing to mix him in as a secondary target and move on with my life.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Dias by RNC, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium-Low)

Meng Ding vs. Jose Souza

Fight Odds: Ding -115, Henrique -105

Odds to end ITD: -160

DraftKings Salaries: Ding 8.4k, Henrique 7.8k

Weight Class: 170

*Matchup analysis written by Gordon Clark

The fight night continues with a matchup of debutants (and Contender Series losers), as the hometown Meng Ding takes on Jose Henrique Souza. Let’s dive in.

Meng Ding makes his UFC debut this weekend with plenty of regional experience behind him. The 31-year-old Chinese fighter has a record of 35-9 since his debut in 2015, which is a lot of fights and wins to see. Was it against the best level of competition? No. But it’s good to see Ding having plenty of experiences, getting in some good reps and having plenty of wins under his belt. 

Meng Ding is a brawler, that’s the nicest way to put it. This man has been in some WARS. He is constantly moving forward, throwing shots and is content to eat one to give one. He has a 86% finish rate including 28 (!!) KO’s and 2 submissions. He is 5-3 to the decision and has also been finished 6 times, showing that he is a beatable fighter, despite his toughness. 

Although he does not have much defense, he is constantly moving forward and looking to break people. He can be hit, he can be countered. I’ve seen him knocked down a few times in a fight and get right back up. But you have to kill this man to get him out of there. He hits hard, will eat a bunch of shots and keep going and look to break you with pressure and offense. 

It’s very fun to watch, but it’s also not the highest level gameplan. Fighters with power can catch him coming in and knock him out, and quicker fighters can point fight from the outside, such as Rami Hamed did on the Contender Series back in 2024. But if you do not have the cardio or durability to trade with him, he will walk you down and look to make you quit. 

Defensively, there are issues. Notably, in the ground game. He can be taken down and he’s been submitted four times. He himself doesn’t wrestle offensively all that well, and is more so looking to get this back to the feet and land bigger shots. Just think of him as a drunk dude at a bar. Not much technique, purely looking to take your head off and he’s willing to be hit and hurt several times in the process, but he doesn’t care. It is funny to watch. 

Overall though, it’s a tough strategy to back long term. Ding is going to rate out as a fun action fighter who is always live to land big shots and break people on the feet, but I would like for him to shore up his grappling game and striking defence before trusting him at too high of a clip.

Jose Henrique Souza looks to finally get to fight under the UFC banner, after dropping his Contender Series bout and having 3 fights cancelled in the past few months. Now, with VISA issues sorted, the 6’3” welterweight looks to show what he has and flies across the world to do so. 

Souza is 24 years old with a record of 8-1. He is big for the division and looks to utilize that range in his striking game. He’s got solid power and finishing ability, with a 75% finish rate, and all of them coming by way of KO. He is content to work off the back foot and land power shots, and he does have the length to put people’s lights out. 

He is also 2-0 to the decision showing he can win minutes, but I cannot take too much from those wins as they look to come against a lower level of competition than I’d like to see. That level of competition has held him back a lot. It’s tough to know his true ceiling because he is looking okay against lower level fighters but when he took that step up against Yusaku Kinoshita on the Contender Series (who has now gone 0-3 since that fight by the way), he looked slow and was knocked out in the third round of that matchup. 

Souza has now been finished in his only loss and when facing adversity, and I question his durability and resiliency. That is only heightened with his “tall man defense”, as he’s pulling his head back and leaving himself to be countered, and I’m waiting for the higher level of competition (like Kinoshita), to find that target. 

Offensively though, he’s not horrible and does look to land damage in exchanges and has solid weapons to do so. 

On the mat, I’m not sure what to think. I haven’t seen him grapple too much and I cannot expect him to shoot takedowns. I have actually seen him struggle off his back himself, but he does train at Nova Uniao so I’d like to think that part of his game is improving. 

Either way though, that’s not his style. He wants to exchange on the feet, utilize his length and look to land big counter hooks. I don’t like how he takes the back foot nor how he pulls his head back, but we do have to acknowledge his power and the fact he is only 24, he can still be improving. 

Overall, Souza is a primary striker with decent power and range but I would like to see him shore up his defensive tendencies and take the front foot more often before trusting him at the UFC Level. 

This is a pretty fun matchup. Neither guy is that high level but they can both get into scraps. They are both guys who have issues in their game and who I want to fade long term. Both have fought at a low level of competition regionally and lost their DWCS matchups. But neither guy really wants to wrestle so I think we get a fun striking match, woo hoo! Technique and hand speed wise, neither guy is anything to rave about. They have their issues defensively and can both be countered. I actually think Souza might be the quicker striker. But their styles are a bit different. Souza wants to keep people at range and I haven’t seen him hit too much. When I have seen him hit, he was put out COLD. 

Ding on the other hand, I’ve seen hit and hurt a million times. This guy just leaves his head on a platter to be hit. He walks forward, eats one to give one and looks to hit back hard. In front of the home crowd, I like that style, but Ding is always live to just be hit and KO’d. He’s got great resiliency and can get back up, but it’s not a favorable style to have. 

However, I do like him in this matchup. It’s pretty easy to visualize. Ding will walk forward, Souza will accept the back foot. Ding will look to take your head off and throw volume, Souza will look to counter. I think Souza has to land a big shot and deter Ding because if not, Ding will look to break him and honestly, I think he does. I like Ding’s pressure, volume and proven resiliency and I think in what is an all out brawl, his style will work out a bit better against the tall man defence of Souza. 

Give me the hometown guy to get a win in his UFC debut, although their defensive lapses don’t give me the most confidence either way. 

—

On DraftKings, I can get behind this fight for its fight ending potential.

The real trouble with this matchup is that the fantasy upside is dependent on a finish. Neither man pushes enough pace, or grapples much, for me to be excited without the finish.

We’ve seen Ding go to decision and land 51 strikes, so if these two simply survive, the fight will bust.

With that said, it’s hard not to see someone getting hurt. Ding was knocked down three times in his last fight, a fight which he won by knockout. And Souza was KOd cold on DWCS, and then essentially KOd in one of his more recent regional bouts, a fight that he also won.

So these guys are definitely tough, but they are super hittable and probably will get knocked out soon in losses. I think Ding is a bit better and more physical, but there’s a lot of variance in fights like this.

Ding is 8.4k and seems like a solid fantasy option. He’s +135 to win ITD and has like 30 KOs on his record. He’s boom or bust, but I’m hopeful for the boom side. His betting line is also falling which I think could push people off him.

Ultimately there’s no reason to feel confident here but Ding is a strong mid-range target who could score a knockout and exceed value.

Souza is priced at 7.8k and may even be more dependent on the knockout.

The same issues exist where he won’t throw meaningful volume and probably won’t wrestle, so if the fight extends, he can bust. He’s a decent boxer though offensively with some power, and Ding can be hit.

Souza is +285 to win ITD which isn’t as strong, but I consider him a similar target to Ding. He may rate out as the value side by fight night in which case, he could even be more popular than Ding.

Souza isn’t very good, so I’m not dying to target him in a vacuum, but this matchup is likely to end ITD and it’s a high-variance scrap with two questionable defensive talents. It seems worth it to mix Souza in as a secondary underdog and I think an early KO is semi-realistic if he wins at all.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Ding by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Low)

Aoriqileng vs. Cody Haddon

Fight Odds: Haddon -365, Aoriqileng +290

Odds to end ITD: -130

DraftKings Salaries: Haddon 9.3k, Aoriqileng 6.9k

Weight Class: 135

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

We have a fun action fight here in the bantamweight division between rising prospect Cody Haddon and UFC veteran Aoriqileng.

I still hate Aoriqileng for taking a No Contest against Daniel Marcos, a matchup Marcos was completely dominating before an accidental foul occurred. I am not convinced Aoriqileng was actually hurt.

Following that, Aoriqileng dropped a clear unanimous decision to Raul Rosas Jr., where his grappling vulnerabilities were exposed once again. However, he bounced back in explosive fashion in his last outing, scoring a brutal 21-second knockout over veteran Cody Gibson. It was a bit random but it displayed a win condition Aoriqileng has.

Aoriqileng is now 4-4 (with 1 NC) in the UFC and remains a chaotic action fighter who relies heavily on striking pace, power, and variance. He lands 4.69 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 5.47 in return. He brings solid cardio and dangerous power, but his lack of defense means he gets hit way too often for comfort. I don’t think he is an actual skilled striker and over the duration he will get hit way too much against a skilled striker. He is somewhat tough but has been knocked out and hurt in the UFC.

Aoriaileng is not a good grappler. He averages 1.20 takedowns per 15 minutes and struggles defensively with a 58% takedown defense. While he can scramble and defend takedowns at times, he has historically surrendered multiple takedowns to Cody Durden, Jay Perrin, Johnny Munoz, and Raul Rosas Jr. He has never been submitted in the UFC, but he holds three submission losses from the regional circuit and only has one submission win across 39 professional fights.

I just expect Aoriqileng to be in fun action fights. He can knock people out and compete in striking fights. However, skilled grapplers or skilled volume strikers should beat him if they avoid getting knocked out.

On the other side of this matchup, Cody Haddon enters as a promising 8-1 prospect from Australia. Haddon secured his UFC contract through Dana White’s Contender Series with a quick club-and-sub. He then impressed in his promotional debut by outworking Dan Argueta. Haddon did a great job defending takedowns, mixing in a few of his own and outstriking Argueta 140-54 in significant strikes which was super impressive.

I basically consider Haddon a very well-rounded pace fighter. He is very active on the feet and comes from a boxing background. He comes forward, and paces his opponents and lands solid fundamentals boxing combinations to the head and the body with the occasional leg kicks. He does his best work on the front foot. I haven’t seen him fight many strikers so I don’t know quite how well his striking defense will look. However, he is clearly very competent and his pace alone is a weapon.

Haddon is also a black belt in BJJ. I don’t consider his takedowns all that good, but they aren’t terrible and he can flow on the mat with back takes on opponents and can take advantage of weak, hurt, or tired grapplers. I also thought his TDD looked very good vs Argueta.

Overall, I like Haddon. He is clearly well-rounded and can box and grapple with a hard pace. I do question his athleticism to a degree and I want to see his defensive striking tested more. Overall though, he is a solid fighter.

As far as this matchup goes, the advantage lies with Haddon due to his ability to dictate the location of the fight. On the feet, Haddon’s pressure boxing and technical volume are likely to exploit Aoriqileng’s defensive gaps.

While Aoriqileng is a game striker who just proved his power against Gibson, Haddon’s durability and forward movement should allow him to win the volume battle. Aoriqileng typically needs to land a massive power shot to turn the tide, and I basically think Aoriqileng is KO or bust on the feet.

Additionally, Haddon has a clear path to victory on the mat. Aoriqileng’s defensive grappling isn’t horrible and I don’t totally love Haddon’s takedowns. However, Haddon can definitely ground AoriQileng if he puts on a hard pace or if he hurts AoriQileng standing.

Overall, I just think Haddon is better everywhere and AoriQileng is probably KO or bust.

—

On DraftKings, I’m fairly interested in this matchup for pacing purposes.

Although this fight isn’t extremely likely to end inside the distance or in round one, it’s likely to be one of the highest paced fights of the night. Haddon just landed 140 sig strikes and we’ve already seen Aoriqileng absorb 189 strikes in a fight before to .. checks notes.. Jeff Molina..

That fight aside, I just like Haddon’s pressure and pacing, and Aoriqileng needs to and is willing to brawl. He’ll need to land big damage and if he can’t, I think there’s a decent chance Haddon overwhelms him with pacing and activity.

Haddon is priced at 9.3k and fits a different mold than most of the others in this range. Pavlovich, Zhang and Asakura all very likely need an early KO to be optimal, while Haddon does not. Haddon may not have the same finishing equity, but he can get there in a mid-round TKO or submission, or via grappling domination or a mix of it all.

The issue is that he’s only +140 to win ITD. When you compare that to -250 and -300 ITD of some others in this range, it’s hard to view Haddon as a priority. At this expensive price tag, I don’t consider him a must.

I do like rostering Haddon still though, because if he’s able to secure a finish, he arguably has a higher ceiling than other fighters in this range based on his activity. He shouldn’t be extremely popular either, and I think works as a very strong pivot off one of these boom/bust strikers.

I consider Haddon one of the safest of the group in that with any kind of win, Haddon can score well. He’s coming off a 100 point decision win and arguably has similar or higher upside than others in this range. I’m not sure his base outcomes outscore Pavlovich and Zhang if they win by round one KO, but I’d definitely like secondary exposure here for the situations where those boom/bust strikers fail to win quickly.

Aoriqileng is priced at 6.9k and is a mediocre target.

I obviously like the pacing of this fight, and Aoriqileng has knockout power. I just perceive him to be at a disadvantage in pacing, durability and grappling, and he’s a big dog. I’m not dying to bet on him to win by KO.

Coming off a 127 point win, Aoriqileng could get some ownership as a punt. He’s only +375 to win ITD.

I wouldn’t completely rule out a KO as there’s a lot of variance in striking exchanges, but I only consider Aoriqileng a low-end target with a bit of finishing equity, and I’d personally rather pay up a bit more to get fighters who I believe have a better shot to win.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Haddon by TKO, RD 3 (Confidence=Medium)

Rei Tsuruya vs. Luis Gurule

Fight Odds: Tsuruya -225, Gurule +190

Odds to end ITD: +100

DraftKings Salaries: Tsuruya 8.8k, Gurule 7.4k

Weight Class: 135

*Matchup analysis written by Gordon Clark

The fight night continues as Rei Tsuruya makes his return to the Octagon against the short notice replacement, Luis Gurule. Let’s dive in.

Rei Tsuruya won his UFC contract through the Road to the UFC a couple years ago. He was an undefeated fighter with some solid skills and a great wrestling background, and he exemplifies it in his fighting game. He was able to back up the wins on the Road to the UFC with a decision win over Carlos Hernandez, before running into current champion Joshua Van who was able to fend off the takedowns and outstrike him on the feet. 

Now, at 10-1 and 23 years old, Tsuruya looks to get back to his winning ways this weekend. He took 14 months off after his first pro loss and at his young age, you have to think that is good for his development. At his core, Tsuruya is an explosive wrestler. He is currently averaging 5.06 takedowns per 15 minutes and has landed a takedown in each of his appearances under the UFC banner, including 4 against Van and 8 against Mark Climaco.

Although he has great takedown offense and can also threaten from the top position, he doesn’t always have the best control and he can let his opponents up. He can procure finishes on the mat and on the feet, as he holds an 80% finish rate split evenly between 4 KOs and 4 submissions, all of which have ended in the first two rounds. 

With his heavy grappling pace, he can slow down and that was the case against Van, as well as against Carlos Hernandez where he was controlled for 4:23 in the third round alone as he wasn’t as explosive on his entries. However, he shot 21 takedowns against Van and is able to threaten scrambles at a high clip, where he does have the physicality and skill to threaten finishes. 

His striking is also improving, but is certainly not his best asset. He’s currently averaging 2.24 strikes landed per minute and although he does have decent power and in and out movement, it is typically used to set up his takedowns. He does have solid durability though. He was able to survive against Van and has never been finished in his professional career. He is also 2-1 to the decision, showing that although he can slow down, he can often also do enough to bank the first couple rounds with the wrestling. 

Overall, Tsuruya is a dangerous wrestling prospect who is still improving and is quick to get to the hips. He does have great offense to take you down and threaten finishes, but sometimes lacks control and can drain his gas tank. I would like to see that control and cardio improved, since he certainly isn’t as dangerous on the feet, but he does rate out as a solid wrestle heavy prospect that can develop into a solid contender.

Luis Gurule makes a quick turnaround this weekend after getting his first UFC win just two weeks ago against Daniel Barez. Gurule struggled to find his footing in the UFC after a very impressive Contender Series debut against Nick Piccininni, where he was able to rally against a very solid wrestler, show great cardio and work ethic and out box him to a split decision. 

At that point, Gurule was an undefeated prospect at 11-0, but he lost his first three under the UFC banner in pretty disappointing fashion. He was finished by Ode Osbourne in round two, hurt on the feet by Jesus Aguilar and then was dominated over 15 minutes by Alden Coria. 

He then opened as a pick’em to Daniel Barez a couple weeks ago, but was able to put on a pretty dominant boxing display over the course of 15 minutes. He showed great cardio and volume, as he landed 178 strikes and threatened a finish a few times over a pretty tough Barez. 

The issue for Gurule in the UFC has been that durability, but he himself ate some big shots and looked a career best. Now, just two weeks later, he looks for another win. 

Gurule is a primary boxer. Although smaller for the division, he has great cardio and volume, and builds as the fight goes on. He averages 5.7 strikes landed per minute and has landed over 100 strikes in both his UFC wins. Although not the most dangerous fighter, with only a 55% finish rate split between 5 KOs and one submission, he is 5-2 to the decision and has good minute winning to win over the judges, especially as the fight goes on.

 Because of the boxing threat on the feet, we have seen fighters mix in takedowns on Gurule. He is currently defending takedowns at 59% and we did see Piccininni take him down 10 times on DWCS, but he never settled and worked his way to the feet quite well. He is typically able to scramble quite well and work his way to the feet, but it might be something to look out for when he takes step ups in competition. 

As I mentioned earlier, the issue for Gurule has been the durability. He can lose moments when he’s wobbled and Ode Osbourne was able to put him out cold. I’m not as worried about that performance, but it was being rocked multiple times by Jesus Aguilar that gives us some cause for concern. I do think he’s one of those fighters that looks good until he’s put out cold, but he absorbed some big shots from Barez so it’s been hit or miss. 

The last thing to mention is that Gurule is a fighter who does build as the fight goes on. His cardio is great and as he gets his reads, the volume only builds. He can start slow and lose round one, but is typically the fighter I’d expect to win round 3. 

Overall, Gurule is a high paced, volume boxer with a solid get up game and work ethic. I do have concerns about his durability which is only heightened as he just fought 14 days ago, but he will rate out as a fighter who is able to win minutes at a high clip, especially as the fight goes on.

This is a short notice affair for Gurule and one where he is making a quick turnaround. A fight on short notice for Gurule, a guy with durability concerns already, 14 days after just absorbing 113 significant strikes is not always the best look. However, I will say this is a better matchup for him here. 

I much preferred Tsuruya against Aguilar, but this gives a different layer to it. Don’t get me wrong, Tsuruya will look great early. He will be bigger, be quicker in the wrestling and more times than not, be able to get takedowns at a high clip early on. The issue is just that he’s a fighter who tends to slow down as the fight goes on with not the best control, against a fighter who builds as the fight goes on, has great cardio and has already proven the ability to work his way to the feet quite well. 

So early, it’s all Tsuruya. He should be able to land takedowns and win optics. In my eyes, in this fight that is -135 to go the distance, Tsuruya wins round one at a high clip, and conversely, Gurule with his pace, building as the fight goes on and cardio should win round 3 at a high clip. 

So how does round two go? Can Tsuruya hold down Gurule? Can he even hurt him on the feet? Sure, the clear striking and volume edge is to Gurule, but I give the early optics and durability edge to the 23 year old here. 

I typically go wrestler over striker and do think Tsuruya has enough success in round 1-2, along with the finish upside, to get the nod this weekend, but It’s certainly a harder matchup and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Gurule have some late success and steal a close decision. 

The fight kind of reminds me of the Piccininni fight Gurule had where he was able to win, but I think I rate out Tsuruya’s control just a tad better and think he can have some early success and bank a couple rounds in front of the asian crowd cheering him on. 

—

On DraftKings, you’ll have to pick your poison on this one because there’s not a whole lot to feel confident with.

I had a lot of hope for Tsuruya entering the UFC, given his Junior Olympic wrestling background, and I thought his BJJ skills were pretty sharp as well. After watching him compete in the UFC though, I think his game is pretty broken.

Clearly in my mind, Tsuruya was not ready for the UFC. His takedowns looked very mediocre, and his control game wasn’t strong. He’s crafty on the mat but he rates out more as a tricky BJJ guy than a physical wrestler. Additionally, his striking and cardio are weak.

With that said, he’s only now 23 years old. He looks more physical and jacked up now than we saw him in his last fight. I’d hope he can make improvements. Can I count on those improvements though?

This matchup is tough because Gurule already fought Piccininni who is a D1 All-American wrestler, and Gurule scrambled well in that fight. He gave up 10 takedowns but very little control.

I do think Tsuruya can take Gurule down, probably a few times. I think he can take his back. Man, if Tsuruya can’t get an early sub though, I don’t think he wins this fight. Gurule has a college wrestling base and he’s clearly the better boxer, with more volume and better cardio.

I’m honestly picking Gurule to win. I’m hopeful Tsuruya looks better here, and I do think he’ll have a shot at an early sub. I really don’t trust his control game and I’ve seen Gurule scramble well enough that I’m highly concerned for Tsuruya if this fight extends.

Tsuruya is priced at 8.8k and has upside given his style. We’ve seen him score 106 in a decision win before, with 8 takedowns, and we’ve seen Gurule give up takedowns. A sub is in play and Tsuruya is +175 to win ITD.

I think Tsuruya is a decent fantasy target, considering the price. I do think others are far safer to win, and have better shots at a quick KO. Tsuruya isn’t an outright priority to me. But in this low 9k, upper 8k price range, he fits in well and provides an upside case when he wins.

I may be lower than the field this week in general on Tsuruya but I probably will end up with moderate, near the field type of exposure to him given the cost and his style.

Gurule is priced at 7.4k and I like him some.

I think his last win was kind of BS in the sense that he landed 149 sig strikes. Barez landed 113 apparently. I don’t know if I buy those numbers and they feel a bit inflated. Regardless I do think his volume is superior to Tsuruya’s and he’d have some KO equity late in the fight.

Tsuruya doesn’t allow a lot of strikes though, and Van only landed 59 strikes and scored 68 DK points. That’s a pretty big concern. Tsuruya also gave up takedowns and control to Carlos Hernandez so I think Gurule could have some wrestling equity too if Tsuruya tires.

Essentially what this means is Gurule won’t project well. He is +400 to win ITD and won’t project to land a ton of strikes, or takedowns. He could get taken down early, controlled and subbed.

If Gurule wins though, I’d want exposure to him at 7.4k. We’ve seen Tsuruya dropped, taken down, and gas out. There’s enough here where I’m just not totally sure what a win for Gurule could look like and a 3rd round TKO seems on the table. He could also score 65 and miss the optimal.

This isn’t a true priority and I wouldn’t count on him matching his previous score, but at cost, I like Gurule as a low-end secondary target and I think he could very reasonably win the fight if Tsuruya hasn’t made considerable improvements.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Gurule by Decision (Confidence=Low)

Angela Hill vs. Jingnan Xiong

Fight Odds: Jingnan -190, Hill +165

Odds to end ITD: +275

DraftKings Salaries: Jingnan 8.7k, Hill 7.5k

Weight Class: 115

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

Coming off a hard-fought loss against Fatima Kline, Angela Hill will look to bounce back this weekend against promotional newcomer and former ONE Championship strawweight champion Jingnan Xiong.

Hill is basically a striker, and she is always live to win striking fights. She lands 5.37 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 5.02 in return. She defends strikes at a solid 60 percent.

I respect Hill on the feet. She fights hard and can always have success in the clinch. She is also just very tough and has good durability. She can mix in kicks, punches, knees, and elbows. She is just so experienced and comfortable as a striker. She also has shown pretty good cardio in recent years.

Hill doesn’t really land many takedowns but she has faced great competition and has fought a ton of strikers and grapplers recently. She only lands 0.75 takedowns per 15 minutes. I have always considered her an underrated grappler and she actually landed 2 takedowns against Pinheiro and submitted Pinheiro. She also landed 5 takedowns against Denise Gomes. More recently, she struggled to establish ground control against Lucindo. I do think she can sneakily take down low to mid tier fighters of this division.

Hill does defend takedowns at 72 percent which is solid, and I do think she has really improved her TDD over the years. Hill can be controlled for stretches. You saw that against Jandiroba, Dern, and recently Lucindo and Kline in her losses. Those fighters are high-level grapplers though and I have seen Hill scramble up fine vs other fighters. She also scrambled up well against Tabatha Ricci.

I just think Hill is a good competitor. She can strike in volume and is tough as nails. She also has decent TDD and is capable of taking down fighters if she chooses to pivot her strategy.

I will say the main concern that I have for Hill is her age. She turned 41 this year. I guess I am just saying that I am a bit worried of an imminent Hill decline and I had more confidence in her a couple of years ago. The physical athletic drop-off was visible in her last two decision losses. However, Kline and Lucindo are really good and are better than Hill ever was in her prime, so a write off of Hill may be premature. I didn’t think Hill looked bad in the first couple of rounds against Lucindo either.

Hill will be taking on Jingnan Xiong who is making her UFC debut after a multi-year title reign in ONE Championship.

Xiong is 38 years old and enters the UFC on a five-fight winning streak. She is 19-2 professionally. I mostly consider Xiong a power striker who predominantly uses her hands.

As a striker, Xiong has good hands and combination punching. She also has decent cardio and can fight 15 minutes no issue. She is pretty quick with her hands in general and carries decent power for a woman. Her output isn’t always the best but she has good boxing setups and heavy power hooks. I think she will strike fine in the UFC with most women.

I still am a little concerned with Xiong’s volume though and she can be hit with other striking weapons like kicks, etc. She will thrive more so in pocket and boxing range, but I think she could be out slicked from other ranges. I actually think her biggest weakness is being clinched against the cage and hit with knees, etc. in the clinch. She will get stuck there for extended stretches.

Xiong doesn’t really wrestle all that much. I have seen her get top position a few times but she generally looks to strike. I think her defensive takedown stuffing is okay. She can get taken down here and there but she is physical and I think she is a competent defensive wrestler. I definitely think the top grapplers of this division will give her issues though as I have seen her stuck on her back.

Overall, Xiong is fine. She isn’t great. However, she can strike and has some crisp hands, and good enough defensive wrestling to give her a chance to beat plenty of girls in this division.

As far as this matchup goes, this would have been a clear play on Hill for me a couple of years ago if I wanted to rely on sneaky takedowns and veteran cage-pressuring. Hill generally always tests these newer promotional faces and has historically been a great gatekeeper.

Hill’s age concerns me still but I do expect this to be very competitive. On the feet, I think Xiong clearly has the more powerful hands at range. If they are stuck at range, I think I favor Xiong just because she hits harder and has more powerful hands. I still think Hill will compete fine at range and use other tools like kicks and diverse strikes to land volume and keep it close. If they are striking in parity at range though, that probably favors Xiong as Xiong hits harder and is more damaging.

I really think Hill should go for the clinch here. Hill is very good at clinching and landing knees and elbows. Xiong is seriously bad in this position and will concede offensive strikes here. I think if Hill obsessively clinches, she will win this fight.

I also think Hill is more likely to land takedowns here. Hill pursues takedowns and Xiong has conceded takedowns.

So I really see this as a fight where Xiong is maybe a little more damaging at range but it is competitive. However, Hill has the clinch and potential spot takedowns to make the fight super tight. I think we get a 29-28 type of decision here and I am going to ride with Hill one last time. Her age may prove to be the ex factor, but Xiong is no spring chicken herself. I expect a competitive one here.

—

On DraftKings, I don’t necessarily view this fight as a priority.

The fight as a whole is -350 to go the distance and therefore, the lack of finishing equity limits the ceiling on paper. Plus, neither side is a guarantee to wrestle.

There’s a large portion of the outcomes here where these two strike competitively to a decision, and the winner scores less than 80 points. By default, it’s not a fight that you must roster.

Jingnan is priced at 8.7k and I just feel she’s too expensive for her base expectation. I’d be surprised if she grappled with urgency, and she’s +400 to win ITD. Without a knockout, it’s tough to see Jingnan standing out at this price.

I’m far more interested in fighters priced below, and above her, and ultimately only consider Jingnan a contrarian target. Perhaps she has some sneaky KO equity given the age dynamic but it’s not something I can bet on.

Hill is the preferred target of the two at 7.5k, though she’s more of a floor play than someone I’m excited to roster.

I do think in most outcomes, Hill can land some strikes, fight semi-competitively and make it the distance. But she is only +600 to win ITD and without takedowns, her ceiling is super limited.

Hill will rate out well for cash games, but for tournaments, you’re really hoping she employs a clinch and grapple heavy approach, where she does carry upside. We’ve actually seen her top 100 DK points in three of her past four wins, with a couple of those coming via takedowns and control.

Jingnan isn’t a particularly good grappler, so I wouldn’t be shocked if Hill has some wrestling success. I can’t bet on 100 DK points, but can she win a decision and score in the mid-80s? I think that’s a reasonable outcome.

I only consider Hill a low-end target because she lacks real finishing equity, but there are some cases where she could flash grappling upside, and she’s cheap enough to warrant mixing in a little bit.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Jingnan by Decision (Confidence=Low)

Kangjie Zhu vs. Rodrigo Vera

Fight Odds: Vera -110, Zhu -110

Odds to end ITD: +180

DraftKings Salaries: Vera 8.3k, Zhu 7.9k

Weight Class: 145

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

We have an intriguing newcomer matchup here in the featherweight division between Road to UFC tournament winner Zhu Kangjie and promotional debutant Rodrigo Vera. Vera is taking this fight on three week’s notice.

Zhu is a fundamentally sound kickboxer who relies heavily on his distance management and power. He is a compact striker. He comes from a kickboxing background. He lacks volume at times, but he possesses measurable power in his right hand and frequently uses a steady diet of body shots to slow opponents down. He can mix in kicks to the body too.

Looking closely at his Road to UFC tournament run, Zhu fought three times to secure his contract. In the quarterfinals, he won a clear unanimous decision over Tatsuya Ando, dropping him twice and using sharp liver shots to slow the pace. He outstruck Ando 74-14 in significant strikes in that fight.

In the semifinals, Zhu’s path became much harder against wrestler Shin Haraguchi (I can confirm Haraguchi is a legit and accomplished wrestler on the international circuit), where Zhu was forced into high-amplitude grappling exchanges and narrowly escaped with a split decision win. Zhu was essentially on the wrestling defense this entire fight and outlanded Haraguchi 31-17 in significant strikes. Haraguchi landed 16 of 33 takedown attempts (which is fucking insane) and was able to control Zhu against the cage at times. However, Zhu generally didn’t get completely grounded and Haraguchi is a tough fighter to deal with.

In the tournament finale, Zhu faced seasoned competitor Xie Bin and struggled with the wrestling output again, but his cleaner damage from the outside secured him another narrow split decision victory. It was another fight where Zhu was forced to defend a lot of takedowns and he actually was outlanded 29-25 in significant strikes.

The close nature of his last two tournament bouts shows Zhu sometimes just struggles to throw strikes when he is forced to defend takedowns. I actually think his takedown defense is decent and he can avoid getting completely grounded, but he can get his offense stifled and held vs the cage when forced to defend wrestling in general. 

It’s tough because many guys would have just been outwrestled in those fights so they weren’t bad performances. I just wish Zhu would throw more and not be so hesitant when he has his moments to throw. You saw him throw more vs Ando as he wasn’t forced to defend takedowns as much. Zhu doesn’t wrestle all that much offensively. 

Zhu will be taking on Peruvian fighter Rodrigo Vera. Vera is a balanced, fairly well-rounded newcomer who steps into this matchup riding a 13-fight winning streak on the regional circuit. He is 21-1-1 professionally. 

Just for some context, he actually is the only guy to beat Juan Diaz who just upset Wellmaker. Furthermore, Vera is on the latest season of TUF which airs in June but filming is complete. The fact that Vera is taking this fight on three weeks notice before the show airs means he is likely not in the tournament finals which is supposed to occur later this summer. 

I am not positive here but that likely means Vera lost on TUF, but impressed enough to get a short notice call. Or maybe he got injured but is now healthy to compete? Either way I think it is interesting information.

Vera is basically a volume wrestler. I think his takedowns are decent but honestly I don’t think they are great either. Generally these South American volume wrestlers come to the UFC and don’t thrive because South Americans just aren’t good technical wrestlers as it isn’t a popular sport in those countries. I still think Vera is very tenacious though, and has a good motor and he can outwrestle below-average grapplers for sure. I still just don’t think he is a great technical wrestler and he only has three submission wins on the regionals, so he isn’t the best submission grappler.

Vera’s striking is okay. He doesn’t have a ton of power on the feet, but he is very tough and if his wrestling fails he will walk opponents down and try to land volume and pace. I do worry about his defense a bit but he is serviceable standing.

As far as this matchup goes, this is a close one man and it may look very similar to Zhu’s last matchups that ended by split decision.

On the feet, I think Zhu is a more technical and powerful striker, and if they exchange on the feet I think Zhu will land the more effective strikes. I think both guys are tough and Vera will try hard and maybe keep it competitive on volume, but I do think Zhu’s power is the big advantage on the feet here.

My guess is Vera will try to wrestle at least early. I do think Vera can land takedowns and clinch Zhu up and stifle Zhu’s offense. However, Zhu should be able to resist and not completely get grounded. So my guess is we get a back and forth fight where they exchange standing with Zhu landing the bigger shots but Vera being tough enough to compete. Then Vera will have spot success clinching or landing an occasional takedown.

I really worry about Zhu because he tends to not let his hands go when guys like Vera wrestle. So Vera probably has a high floor in this matchup. I still just don’t think Vera is going to dominate with wrestling either and they will likely strike in spots and I think Zhu will land the more damaging shots which judges tend to like. I will pick Zhu to win a very competitive fight.

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On DraftKings, I think I will probably avoid this one although that doesn’t mean it won’t end up scoring well.

I view the fight very similar to Tim, and my worry essentially is that Vera needs to grapple dominate to be optimal, and I’m unsure he can do it. Zhu does give up a ton of takedowns, but he’s not easy to hold down and Vera isn’t that great of a grappler.

Vera is priced at 8.3k and I think he’s a viable contrarian target. With odds moving against him, he’s a bit overpriced and I really don’t think he’ll get a lot of attention this week, with so many other strong mid-range matchups. If he wins, 5+ takedowns could be involved.

I’m still unsure it’s enough, because I’m not sold on control or finishing ability. Vera is +300 to win ITD. I’d rather bet on the fight being competitive than I would bet on Vera scoring 100 points in a win, ultimately.

However, if we say Vera is 14 percent owned or something low, mixing him in still makes sense. I think he’s an acceptable contrarian tournament target for wrestling equity but my best guess is that he underperforms and/or loses.

Zhu is priced at 7.9k and I just can’t get behind the volume. He’s technically the value side but what does it matter?

Zhu very likely needs a knockout, and that’s tough to predict given his low volume. He doesn’t wrestle much or at all. Vera seems tough. Zhu is only +425 to win ITD.

There are enough underdogs I like that I’d rather bet on this fight to extend, than I would bet on Zhu to win by KO. He could be viewed as a viable contrarian target as well with KO equity but on paper, the KO equity is still minimal.

I’m not 100 percent confident the fight will play out exactly like we think, so at low public ownerships, it’s your right to mix these guys in if you have a different view. I just like so many other fights more for upside than this one.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Zhu by Decision (Confidence=Low)

Loma Lookboonmee vs. Jaqueline Amorim

Fight Odds: Amorim -130, Lookboonmee -110

Odds to end ITD: +140

DraftKings Salaries: Amorim 8.2k, Lookboonmee 8k

Weight Class: 115

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

We have an interesting fight here between jiu-jiitsu ace Jacqueline Amorim and Loma Lookboonme.

Amorim is a BJJ blackbelt and has a great track record in big time BJJ tournaments. She took 2nd in the blackbelt division of the IBJJF world no-gi championships in 2016.

Amorim is now dedicated to MMA and is 10-2 professionally. She made her UFC debut against Sam Hughes and won round 1 with dominant grappling positions. She took Hughes down, body triangled her, and nearly submitted her. Then Amorim gassed horribly, started pulling guard, and just got beaten up on her back for the next two rounds. 

Her next UFC fight was a dominant grappling based win against Conejo Ruiz. She then quickly submitted Cory McKenna in round one via arm bar. More recently, she submitted Vanessa Demopolous and Polyana Viana in her last wins. 

In Amorim’s last matchup, she lost a decision to Mizuki. It was similar to the Hughes fight where Amorim had some early success, couldn’t get a finish, the fight got extended and then Amorim tired and was beaten up on the feet and off her back.

It seems like it is going to be the same drill with Amorim. Amorim is going to be a grappling storm threat early in fights. However, if she doesn’t have an opponent she can submit quickly, and is facing someone who can resist her and survive, Amorim will likely slow down and struggle. 

I just hate Amorim’s cardio man. She had nothing for 10 minutes against Sam Hughes and looked horrible down the stretch vs Mizuki. Furthermore, she has no striking and looks to pull guard when she is too tired to land takedowns. When she is tired and on her back, she looks to have nothing either so she can be held down. I basically think Amorim is going to make a living in this division by dominating early with her grappling. However, she will probably lose when she faces anyone who can resist her or survive early.

I did like that Amorim fought into round 3 successfully against Montserrat Ruiz. However, even in rounds 2 and 3, Amorim was pulling guard. It worked out for her as she swept Ruiz but I don’t think she can just do that to everyone.

Amorim will be taking on Loma Lookboonme. I actually like Loma Lookboonme because I have bet her three times and she has come through all three times. I think she has flaws in her game, but she puts up consistent offense which will win fights in WMMA.

Loma is a skilled thai striker. She lands 3.67 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.52 in return. She definitely has some skills. She has some solid kicks from distance and is quick and slick. She also thrives in the clinch where she can manipulate opponents and land thai based strikes. On the feet, I like Loma and think she will compete just fine in this division.

Loma also has a sneaky offensive wrestling game from the clinch. She lands 1.81 takedowns per 15 minutes. She has actually landed a takedown in 7 of 9 UFC fights and landed 4 against Sam Hughes. Her takedowns almost always come from the clinch as she is strong in that position and has a good understanding of leverage given her Thai background. I think she can continue to land takedowns against weak grapplers.

Loma does have some weaknesses though. She is kind of small for this division and girls have kind of roughed her up on the inside in boxing range and with wrestling because of it.

She defends takedowns at 68 percent. However, good grapplers can take her down especially if they just use their size later on in fights. Loma has done well to survive though and she hasn’t been submitted in her UFC career. 

Loma isn’t a terrible defensive grappler though. I actually thought she did a decent job defending takedowns against Godinez who went 5 of 12 on takedowns. Loma gave up her back several times, and worked up and even reversed position and got on top in round 3 vs Godinez. Loma was taken down 5 times on 11 attempts against Thainara. However, Loma still got up a few times and Thainara has insane cardio, physicality, and is a way better wrestler than Amorim.

My guess is people will look at those two fights and use them as examples as to why Amorim is going to win here. However, I am going to do the exact opposite. Godinez and Thainara have 10x the cardio and extended fight wrestling ability of Amorim. Amorim isn’t capable of shooting 11 or 12 takedowns without badly gassing. I think Loma is fully capable of resisting here which I think will slow Amorim down and Loma will beat her up in the latter half of this fight.

I do think Amorim has a path to victory here though. I do think Amorim can get Loma down and I expect her to early. It honestly may result in a quick submission because I do respect Amorim when fresh and I expect Amorim to get a decent position early.

That submission better come for Amorim though because if it doesn’t, I don’t expect Amorim to take and hold Loma down for 15 minutes. I think resistance is inevitable here. I actually think Loma will tire Amorim, beat Amorim up standing, and then even land takedowns of her own. 

I truly think Loma just has to survive early to win, and I think Loma is tough and functional enough as a grappler to do it. My guess is Amorim has early success, Loma fights hard to survive and then pivots this fight into a one sided affair.

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On DraftKings, this feels like a fairly binary matchup which intrigues me a little bit.

Amorim has been a DraftKings staple since she entered the UFC, largely because of her dependence on early grappling success. In wins, Amorim has scored 98, 103, 91 and 120, and the good news here is that unlike her past fights, she’s not very expensive.

I’ve had some real questions about playing Amorim at points because I wouldn’t consider her safe to win, and I also worry about her top end ceiling. Her most clear path may be a simple takedown, a back take, a submission, and 95 points.

So when Amorim is priced at 9.4k, there’s a lot to consider. Now priced at 8.2k, Amorim feels like a pretty strong option to exceed value in a win.

We still have to consider whether she will actually win the fight though, and Tim being against her is somewhat concerning. Honestly, Amorim looked freaking awful in her last fight. It was a terrible performance and almost suggests to me that she’s an outright failed prospect.

Because of that, I can totally see Amorim losing here once again. There is no way to trust her past round one, and her wrestling, striking and cardio look bad. Loma is a veteran with good cardio.

I can also see Amorim having early success, and a back take is somewhat likely. So ultimately, we’re lacking the safety here once again but that doesn’t necessarily change the outcome for her in a win.

Amorim is +210 to win ITD which is OK but not nearly as good as I’d like it to be. It’s actually pretty concerning that the fight is projected to go the distance, which more suggests to me that Amorim shouldn’t be trusted here.

I think you have to play this spot blindly a little bit because in a win, Amorim is very likely to score 90-100 points. I could even argue she’s a strong play and someone to be overweight on if the public is scared off.

With that said, her flaws and bust potential are obvious if she doesn’t get an early sub, and she should be treated like a real boom/bust grappler. I’ll probably have moderate exposure by default for upside, but I don’t feel great about her chances of winning to be honest.

Lookboonmee at 8k is the tougher call because she’s not necessarily a great fantasy asset.

She is only averaging 80 DK points per win, she’s never won ITD in the UFC, and she’s only topped 90 DK points twice in seven victories. Plus, Amorim could take her down and hold her down which could kill off her ceiling.

My hesitancy is essentially in what we’ve seen from Amorim in her losses. She just gave up 110 DK points to Mizuki which is pathetic. Hughes only scored 83.

Loma has a pretty low floor because she could just kickbox to a decision win, and she’s only +500 to win ITD. However, if Amorim is gassed like her last fight, things could get ugly. 

Amorim has literally NEVER defended a takedown (0/5), and so that gives Loma some wrestling upside. Amorim was just knocked down. I don’t think Loma finishes her but a couple of takedowns, and some control and damage are very possible. At 8.1k, maybe Loma can squeak into the 90 point range if the beatdown is bad enough.

Loma won’t rate out nearly as well due to the lack of ITD equity and she’s a worse play on paper with a worse floor in a win, and a more questionable ceiling. If she’s contrarian, I don’t completely hate her as a differentiator given the binary nature of the matchup and Amorim’s cardio issues.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Lookboonmee by Decision (Confidence=Low)