UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park (8/2/25)

by brettappley
in Index
on February 10, 2026

Note: Please read the full analysis, that is much more important than who I pick to win. The confidence relates to my pick to win, not the path to victory. Picks are NOT bets. Matchup breakdowns are written by Brett unless otherwise noted, and all DraftKings analysis is written by Brett. Both Technical Tim and Luke Lampe will also contribute to matchup breakdowns.

MAIN CARD

Tatsuro Taira vs. HyungSung Park

Fight Odds: Taira -353, Park +286

Odds to end ITD: -120

DraftKings Salaries: Taira 9.2k, Park 7k

Weight Class: 125

Coming off his first professional loss in a close main event to Brandon Royval last October, Tatsuro Taira will look to rebound against HyungSung Park this weekend, who is taking this fight on less than one week’s notice.

Taira is 25 years old and holding a 16-1 professional record that includes six victories in the UFC. I’m looking forward to seeing Taira back in action as he’s still a strong prospect in this flyweight division, and one or two more wins would put him right back into the title picture.

He’s coming off the main event loss against Brandon Royval which was a competitive one, but a matchup that also highlighted some of the flaws in Taira’s game of which I was previously concerned with.

Most notably, Taira isn’t set up well for success in extended striking exchanges. He’s now defending strikes at a poor 46 percent rate, and has never been able to put up any substantial volume numbers. Royval is a pace machine and I did expect Royval to clear Taira on the feet, but Taira got pieced up at times and was outlanded 124 to 42 in total, which isn’t a great sign.

Taira still had success in that fight though, primarily with his grappling which is clearly his biggest strength. He landed six takedowns on 15 attempts and earned more than 12 minutes of control, though he wasn’t able to submit Royval who is also a BJJ black belt.

From a macro level, the only two rounds Taira won were the 2nd and the 4th, in which he was able to land takedowns and take the back of Royval for 4+ minutes. He’s very much dependent on takedowns and control and while he is skilled at taking the back, I think the one-dimensionality in his game will continue to pose problems against the best opponents in this division.

I still don’t think he’s completely dead in the water any time the fight plays out at distance. Taira is an athletic flyweight with good distance management, and he generally works all the way on the outside, or all the way on the inside.

Despite yielding 124 significant strikes in his last bout, Taira is still absorbing only 2.69 sig. strikes per minute, which is not a lot. My concerns are with his lack of volume at 2.99 strikes landed per minute, and the striking defense rate which I already noted. He’s also been dropped once by Chairez and again was hurt by Royval.

At distance, he’ll generally throw a rear kick, and a hard right hand, but he’s primarily a single shot guy and his aim is usually to use his striking to set up grappling entries. If he can continue to limit engagements and work a grappling game on his terms, Taira will be tough to beat.

The other concern I have with Taira is that he was taken down three times by Royval on three attempts, and Royval isn’t a very strong wrestler. Taira was able to scramble free without much issue on these takedowns, but his takedown defense rate now sits at 45 percent as well, which is awful.

Candelario also took him down twice and reversed him three times. It was in his debut, and Taira still won the fight, but Candelario is a pretty low-level grappler and I didn’t think Taira looked great on the bottom. Perez is a strong wrestler and did land the one takedown, but it didn’t amount to much.

Against a good wrestler, I worry that Taira could get stuck on the bottom or wear down to the point of vulnerability.

All this to say, I don’t think Taira is a fully polished prospect yet. He clearly has some developing left to do, and while I am hopeful for him in the long run, there are red flags in his profile that ultimately did cost him in his last matchup.

HyungSung Park is another undefeated prospect who is 10-0 professionally and 3-0 in the UFC, earning two submissions and one knockout in that span. He also won Road to UFC with that debut submission win, and additionally finished both of his RTUFC opponents in the first round.

Park profiles somewhat similar to Taira in a lot of ways, though he isn’t the exact same style of fighter. But he is a fairly low-volume striker, and he generally excels when he can take his opponent down and take their back.

Through five tracked fights, Park is landing 4.27 sig. strikes per minute, while absorbing 3.29 per minute with a 60 percent defensive rate. Those are strong metrics, but it’s a very small sample when you factor in that most of his fights have ended quickly.

Plus, his level of competition has been awful (similar to Taira leading up to his last two main events). In the UFC, his only wins are against Carlos Hernandez in a fight that lasted two minutes, Shannon Ross who is one of the worst fighters to grace the Octagon in the last decade, and SeungGok Choi who Park beat in the RTUFC Finale.

With that said, he does seem dangerous on the feet to a degree, and does pack power. He will come forward, throw hands, leg kicks, and occasionally explode into strikes like step-in knees. I think his pressure and threat will continue to allow him to hurt opponents, and set up his grappling.

However, it is worth noting that of those five wins, his only knockdowns came against Ross who has zero chin. And he still barely outlanded Ross with a 50-47 total in two rounds, though Park was ahead on head strikes 33-25.

Also, Park was knocked down in back-to-back fights by Choi and Kiwram on RTUFC. He recovered quickly and finished both of those fights, but he does seem susceptible defensively to me and probably will continue to get hurt in losses as well.

Park simply projects to be in some high-variance exchanges on the feet, where he can hurt some guys and get hurt by others. He isn’t likely to separate on the numbers but I at least believe his offensive prowess is a benefit for him.

On the ground, Park is a strong grappler and has earned a lot of wins by RNC, including three of his past four. He’s not a super strong wrestler but is averaging 1.90 takedowns per 15 minutes, though again in a small sample.

He’s also never been taken down in the UFC, though he’s only had to defend a few shots from weak opponents.

I like Park’s grappling threat in combination with his striking threat. If he can get to the back, he can have success and pull off submissions. He’s pretty technical and I was impressed how easily he finished Hernandez in his last matchup, who can be tough to get out of there.

However, Hernandez isn’t a great athlete, and Park hasn’t really been facing off with great competition. I worry about his takedown offense and defense against the higher levels of the division, of which Taira will be this weekend.

To me, Park is a pretty strong mid-level fighter. He’s multi-faceted and dangerous. He doesn’t project as a clear round winner though, and he also projects to struggle against more well-rounded, more physical opponents.

On paper, I do think Park is live against Taira, but the biggest issue is honestly the short notice, of which it feels like an impossible task to overcome.

Especially in five rounds. What will Park look like in rounds four and five, considering he’s only gone the distance once and not since 2018? Taira isn’t a cardio phenom either, and may tire out late, but I have to imagine Taira is more likely to have late success, especially after going through that Royval matchup.

To counter, we have seen Park come from behind to win by submission late, which he did in his RTUFC final. He fought a boring round one there, got dropped in round two, but came back to score the sub in round three.

It is possible he can fight for 3-5 rounds, especially if Taira isn’t pushing a pace as well. On short notice, my best guess is that if he doesn’t finish the fight early, Taira will be too much for him late.

The other main question I have is how easily Taira can get Park down? I think Taira will be the best grappler Park has faced, and I do believe he will have success, but Taira is pretty one-dimensional as noted.

There’s a really good chance in my mind that Park may get taken down, may give up his back but may also scramble free without getting insta-subbed. If that happens, it could tire Taira out and it could give Park more striking exchanges of which he’ll have a shot to win.

Again, it’s more of an extended fight issue where over five rounds, I’d guess Taira can land 4+ takedowns, and he’s probably winning two of those rounds or more. Maybe he does find the RNC along the way.

Park is also hittable, and can be hurt. So even on the feet, Taira won’t be clearly outvolumed or at a durability disadvantage. He might be able to hurt Park with a single strike and/or keep rounds close, especially as Park tires.

Conversely, Park may be the aggressor here, and could win rounds with optics. Being the front foot fighter who throws bigger shots, and more volume, he could hurt Taira as well. I’d bet he can also take Taira down… who I noted has shown really poor takedown defense. Can he keep Taira down though? I doubt it.

You can see why these two profile similarly though and why on paper, Park does have a shot. Especially early, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Park win a round or two.

I do doubt Park finishes Taira early though. A RNC would be a big surprise given Taira’s skills there. A knockout is tough too as Taira limits engagements. And it’s tough to pick Park to win three rounds on such short notice.

So I will go with Taira here. I expect the fight could be competitive early but I do trust Taira to get enough top time, limit striking exchanges, and have the better cardio late to pull this off. But it should be a fun matchup and potentially more competitive than the public perceives.

—

On DraftKings, Taira is going to be firmly in play at 9.2k, though he hasn’t shown an incredible ceiling as of yet.

In four finishes, Taira has scored 96, 102, 103 and 107, which is good but not great. It ties into his lack of offensive production on the feet, and with strikes in general, but reaching 100ish points still gives him hope.

In his two decision wins, he’s also scored 99 and 97, so he’s found a way to put up strong scores regardless of the result. And in his last loss, he still put up 76 points over five rounds which means he would have scored 106 in the win.

All this to say, I don’t necessarily see 115+ point upside from Taira and I have mild concerns that he could score in the mid-90s, and underperform a bit compared to other top-end outcomes on the slate. But he will very likely score well in a win, flirt with 100 points or clear it, and give himself a decent chance to find the optimal lineup.

Taira is only +100 to win ITD but I’d probably rather him win a decision at this point, accrue points over five rounds and likely score 100-110. At 9.2k, he’ll have a solid chance to be optimal regardless, and that will make him a semi-priority this week.

As far as this particular slate, I do think there are lots of upside targets in this top range. In theory, we could get wrestling smashes from Bashi and Estevam, and pacing based wins from Ribovics and Rebecki. It’s likely that some or many of these options don’t actually hit pure ceilings, but in a pure ceiling case, I do think many others can compete with Taira or surpass him.

It won’t put me off Taira but it is worth mentioning. Pivoting onto someone else in this range isn’t a terrible strategy if it allows you to be unique. I do think Taira has an excellent combination of floor/ceiling in a win, plus he’s priced well at 9.2k. He’s an easy target in the main event all things considered, and ending up with moderate exposure makes a lot of sense.

Park at 7k has viability as the main event underdog.

I would expect him to score very well in any kind of win, and contend for the optimal lineup. You can blindly play some of him due to this, especially given the price tag and leverage against Taira.

Park is only +450 to win ITD but I don’t care too much about that as any sort of win would allow Park to accrue points and far exceed value.

The difficulty is that he’ll likely need to win. If you only care about floor, Park is a pretty solid target and I think he’s firmly in play for cash games as well. I’d be looking for a win if I was playing him in tournaments though.

I don’t feel great about Park winning, largely due to the short notice aspect, and I will only consider Park a low-end secondary target overall. I do think early rounds can be competitive though and Park doesn’t profile to be way behind Taira in any area. Perhaps he can surprise a bit.

I wouldn’t say Park is a must play given the circumstances but I have mild hope for him, and at the price tag, with the ME status, I think mixing in Park as a low-end secondary target feels pretty reasonable

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Taira by Decision (Confidence=Medium)

Mateusz Rebecki vs. Chris Duncan

Fight Odds: Rebecki -218, Duncan +183

Odds to end ITD: -205

DraftKings Salaries: Rebecki 9k, Duncan 7.2k

Weight Class: 155

*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe

Chris Duncan’s a two-time Contender Series alum who made good on his 2nd opportunity back in 2022, and has had a solid run thus far in the promotion – he’s 4-1 in the UFC and 13-2 as a pro. Mateusz Rebecki’s a fellow Contender Series alum from the 2022 season who’s also put together a solid run since entering the promotion – he’s 4-1 in the UFC and 20-2 as a pro.

The striking component:

Duncan’s a striker by trade who’s traditionally been more boxing based but has also kicked more in recent years. His work rate is generally consistent, and he does have power for the division, specifically in his right-hand, scoring KOs in 7 of his 13 pro wins.   

But the issue I’ve always had with Duncan is that he does have “plodding” elements to his game where he’ll kind of just march into the pocket.   

It’s obviously brought him success against certain opponents, but it’s also left him defensively liable.   

He’s only defended strikes at 47% between his two DWCS fights and his five UFC bouts where he was hurt specifically in the first three – Borshchev put him down with a good hook, Campbell nearly killed him, and Morales hurt him with a right hand in the 1st.   

He obviously showed off his toughness in the latter two, but I haven’t seen any particularly large evolutions in Duncan’s defense to date which leads me to believe he’s going to get KO’d again sometime in the near future.   

He did perform better against Morales than I anticipated at the time, but I do think Morales was the more effective striker in that matchup despite Duncan getting the nod. The Ashmouz fight is kind of a throw away in the sense that Ashmouz broke his arm early in the 1st round so Duncan was more or less able to do what he needed to.  

Duncan hurt Torres in the brief early exchanges, he was getting outstruck early against Oki before Oki started grappling and most recently he hurt Vucenic early with a right hand, albeit not much happened in totality in the other exchanges with distance counts being 12-8 in favor of Vucenic.

Overall, Duncan will find more evident striking success against guys who he can bully or put away, but I still feel he’s going to struggle with quicker, more defensively cognoscente fighters who can also get his respect.

Rebecki is a grappler by base but has shown some solid things in the stand up as well.  

He’s definitely on the shorter end of 155 but is a compact southpaw who likes to pressure his opponents, sit down on his punches and fire off kicks to both the legs and body.  

Rebecki has also shown to work at a consistent rate to get the better of the stand up in most of his fights. He’s also shown power components with 9 of his 20 pro wins coming via strikes – some coming on the ground but many at space as I’ve seen him hurt guys with straight lefts and body kicks.  

The issue I have with him is that he can get brawly in the pocket at times and square up his stance, also making him susceptible there – specifically to straight punches. So, his defense still needs some work and he can struggle when put on the back foot.  

He was KO’d in his first pro loss but that was back in 2014. We also saw him most recently just get gas pedaled down the stretch by Ferreira where he succumbed to a positional TKO.

But while tired in his last fight with Orolbai again, he was able to hurt Orolbai late and dog out round three to win a 29-28 decision.

Overall, I like Rebecki’s aggression and he’s a respectable offensive striker with power, but he’s a guy that really puts everything into his strikes, resulting in him slowing down and becoming more hittable as fights progress.

How it plays out: Off the top, Duncan will realize a healthy size advantage of 3” in height and 5” in reach. What’s also interesting to note is that Duncan hasn’t fought any southpaws in the UFC. The striking seems somewhat high-variance in the sense that both guys excel primarily in the pocket, both have power and both aren’t good defensively. Of the two, Rebecki is the more aggressive guy though who I’d anticipate to push a stronger pace early in the fight. But in general, it’s really the left hand of Rebecki versus the right hand of Duncan. I personally still think Duncan’s chinny though and Rebecki is the tougher guy, so I give him more upside, early at least.   

The wrestling/grappling component:

Throughout the bulk of Duncan’s earlier career, we hadn’t seen a ton of wrestling from him.

However, he has shot TDs in his last 7 fights – he had some success on Slava late in the 1st but was more so wrestling due to him being hurt – didn’t have success against Campbell – but then shot 14 TDs against Morales which wasn’t really predictable (at the time). He only went 5/14 on Morales but accrued a little over six minutes of control.   

What I thought was impressive for Duncan was that he made a mid-fight adjustment after losing the 1st round on the feet to really pursue the TDs which is ultimately what won him that fight.   

I’ve always thought of Duncan as more of a “block head” but it’s good to see he has some semblance of fight IQ.   

Defensively, he hasn’t been shot on much but has popped up relatively quickly the majority of times he’s been taken down.   

Grappling wise, he’s only a BJJ blue belt on paper but seems to have found a liking for the guillotine where he’s caught his last two opponents in Oki and Vucenic.

His fight against Torres was concerning though as he essentially just got muscled around, got his back taken and choked out early.  

Overall, it appears offensive wrestling is a recent adaptation to Duncan’s game and I think that’s a good thing for him to be able to mix it into his fights. However, I have concerns with him falling in love with that guillotine because he’ll put himself on the bottom – he also hasn’t fought many strong conventional wrestlers through his run which needs to be noted.

Rebecki is a BJJ black belt who’s won and placed in multiple tournaments over the years in Europe – specifically some of ADCC’s regional tournaments.  

Seven of his 20 pro wins have come via submission which isn’t vast but as noted, he has multiple GNP finishes as well. He was also able to lock up a nice RNC in his Contender Series fight.  

Despite his BJJ base, his wrestling is actually pretty solid for a base BJJ guy, landing 3.8 TDs per 15 minutes at 75% through his last six documented fights. His control components have been largely good but more so back regionally.

In his debut against Fiore, he landed three TDs on four attempts and racked up 8+ minutes of control time. He went 2/2 against Roberts and was able to lock up a guard sub armbar after briefly losing position in transition. He went 4/5 against Ferreira but struggled to control him there post knockdown. As noted, he gassed out in the fight giving up three TDs himself and eventually was positionally TKO’d late in the fight.

He went 3/4 on Orolbai last time out but they all came late and damage played a factor – he did end up on bottom later as well though where he started taking shots.

Outside of that, we hadn’t seen him on bottom much considering how much offensive success he’s had coupled with many guys not really shooting on him.  

Fiore did get him down once where he was nearly able to gain dominant position, but Rebecki scrambled out quickly – he also stuffed two other attempts.  

So, I do have some concerns with Rebecki on the bottom more specifically when he’s tired but when fresh, he won’t be easy to take down or hold down and he’s never been submitted before.   

Overall, Rebecki’s an above average ground fighter who can rack up minutes or finish opponents.

How it plays out: The floor is interesting when you consider the ground success Duncan’s had thus far in the UFC, juxtaposed with Rebecki being the best holistic ground fighter he’s fought. With that, Rebecki’s really going to test Duncan’s defensive wrestling which I’m not sold on personally – he’ll probably try the gilly here again but I don’t really think he’s getting it on Rebecki. He’s also going to test Duncan’s defensive grappling – it’s still hard for me to unsee the Torres fight. With all that being said, Rebecki does get tired so I also don’t think he’s going to just top time Duncan for 10+ minutes here, which I also think opens up Duncan’s ground upside if this fight goes later and Rebecki slows down.

Fun fight between two fellow American Top Team products. While credit has to be given to Duncan for some of the adjustments he’s made and pulling off some healthy upsets recently, I also think he’s kind of high rolling/over performing right now. With that being said, Rebecki has defense and cardio issues so Duncan winning this fight wouldn’t be shocking to me but ultimately I think Rebecki’s pretty live to knock Duncan out, and I also think he’s the better ground fighter. Duncan’s not a cardio demon in my opinion either especially under adversity and resistance but if the fight goes late, it could get sketchy for Rebecki. My official prediction is Rebecki via KO though.

—

On DraftKings, I’m somewhat interested in this matchup as the winner should carry a pretty solid floor.

Rebecki has a nice mix of pacing, grappling and finishing equity to his game, and in his wins, he’s scored 104, 122, 112 and 92. The first and last of those scores came in decisions.

I don’t think this is an easy matchup for Rebecki, and he’s been in a couple of wars lately, but I do expect that in a win, Rebecki will continue to produce. Against Duncan specifically, I think he is capable of landing a few takedowns and earning some control time, landing ground strikes, and potentially knocking him out standing as well.

I do doubt that Rebecki dominates from start to finish and in that, it could get hairy. The floor/ceiling combination feels solid to me though.

At 9k, Rebecki is +100 to win ITD which is pretty decent. It’s possible he’ll need that finish to truly stand out and be optimal, so in that, he’s not a must play. However, he seems like a pretty solid candidate to exceed value in a win and with a bit of a discount from the top end, I like Rebecki this week.

Duncan at 7.2k is viable.

He’s clearly making improvements, though I’m not in love with his game. He has some power in his hands, and some wrestling. He’s bigger than Rebecki. I doubt he does much with the wrestling though, but striking exchanges could be competitive.

I haven’t been super high on Duncan recently and I’ve gotten burned by it. I don’t want to count him out of the matchup but it is a tough matchup. He’s +290 to win ITD which is good for his price.

I consider Duncan a perfectly fine mix-in at 7.2k. He’s not a priority for me and I’m not picking him to win. I don’t see an easy path to a finish. But having a size advantage with some power against an opponent who can get tired late definitely gives Duncan hope.

He could also be semi-popular coming off back-to-back wins, and I’m not sure I’d want to be overweight in that case, but Duncan is a fine secondary target overall who carries some upside in a higher-variance matchup.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Rebecki by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium-Low)

Elves Brener vs. Esteban Ribovics

Fight Odds: Ribovics -250, Brener +208

Odds to end ITD: -130

DraftKings Salaries: Ribovics 9.1k, Brener 7.1k

Weight Class: 155

It’s a bit of a surprise to see Esteban Ribovics and Elves Brener combine for a three-fight losing skid, considering the fun, entertaining scraps they’ve been a part of in recent years.

Brener has been a comeback king, pulling off a late KO win over Guram Kutateladze in 2023 and nearly following it up with a comeback win over Myktybek Orolbai in 2024. Ribovics was in a fight of the year candidate against Daniel Zellhuber in 2024 and followed that up with another super tight decision against Nasrat Haqparast, to which he did not get his hand raised.

And when these two square off in the Octagon on Saturday, I am expecting a fierce pace and a lot of action.

Ribovics has been a fan favorite since he made his debut in 2023 and while I haven’t targeted him every time on DraftKings, I do now consider him a real staple of this lightweight division and wouldn’t be surprised if he eventually did climb the rankings.

He’s an ultra-high paced, Argentinian kickboxer, and he’s currently landing 8.08 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 5.92 per minute with a 55 percent defensive rate.

That is where Ribovics’ bread is buttered. He is an excellent round winner due to that pacing, and he can go super hard for a full three rounds. In his last two fights, he landed 147 and 156 significant strikes in three rounds, including 49 and 92 sig. strikes in those final third rounds.

I still don’t love how many strikes he absorbs, and he can and will occasionally get hurt from it, but Ribovics is very tough and most fighters in the division can’t match him in pace anyways.

Grappling is where I have more concerns for Ribovics. Largely, his takedown defense sucks. It was pretty clear that defensive wrestling would be an issue when Ribovics entered UFC, and then he lost his debut while getting taken down 11 times by Loik Radzhabov.

In the fight afterward, Ribovics gave up a few more takedowns to Kamuela Kirk and nearly lost the fight. So it’s a real concern and he probably will lose fights again because he can’t defend takedowns. Officially his TDD sits at 63 percent.

The good news is that he will scramble up. You don’t get taken down 11 times in a fight because you can’t get up. I would prefer his sprawl be better but at least he won’t get held down for large portions without real solid top control from his opponent.

Ribovics also loves to attack this kimora trap which I think is dumb. Kimora’s are a super strength based sub and they don’t usually work at this level. It’s like a beginner thing to do, instead of simply working on your takedown defense, you’ll rely on some dumb bottom sub at the regional level and pay for it later. Ribovics is actually dangerous with it but I don’t really care that much, it’s still a weakness in his game.

In total, Ribovics is a pace striking monster. You need to match him there, hurt him badly or outwrestle him to win, which are all tough avenues.

Next he’ll face Elves Brener, who is coming off back-to-back losses against really solid competition in Orolbai and Joel Alvarez.

Brener came into the UFC as a BJJ player as well, with 11 of his now 16 wins coming by submission. However, it’s been his boxing and toughness that’s been a stand out in this promotion, and it’s led to three pretty crazy wins.

In his UFC debut, Brener was a massive underdog against Zubaira Tukhugov, and somehow edged out a close decision with boxing. Then he fought Guram Kutateladze, who beat him up badly for two rounds, but allowed Brener to mount a comeback late that led to a TKO upset. More recently, he knocked Kruschewsky out cold in the first round.

We’ve gotten to the point that it’s legitimately scary to fade Brener. He will throw hard and has power in his hands. He apparently has incredible cardio. His base grappling is decent and he’s hard to put away.

At the same time, losses for Brener feel inevitable, and now they have come. His wrestling is not great, and so his offensive path to victory on the ground hasn’t been consistent. He was taken down by Kutateladze and held against the cage by Tukhugov, and I’m skeptical that his defense will continue to hold up.

On the feet, he’s absorbing 5.3 sig. strikes per minute, and he was badly, badly hurt by Kutateladze.

Myktybek Orolobai was able to finally best Brener with a unanimous decision, however we saw the same glimpses of toughness that make it hard to count Brener out. He was again hurt early, taken down a bunch and dominated on the mat, but he survived and even mounted a comeback that had Orolbai mounted at the end of round two.

Round three was competitive as well, where Brener actually landed three takedowns of his own against a more tired Orolbai, which was very impressive. Orolbai hurt him again though too.

Against Alvarez, Brener was simply outmatched. He couldn’t take the taller man down, and he was outclassed on the feet. Alvarez is a physical beast at 155 and is now moving up to 170, but Alvarez hurt him a couple of times, outlanded him 95 to 45 and eventually knocked him out with knees in the third round.

Overall, Brener’s history of getting beaten up but surviving makes him a tougher fighter to analyze, but I’m not the highest on his other base skills.

In this matchup, I do like Ribovics and I feel as though this is Ribovics’ fight to win.

Brener cannot match Ribovics in pace. I feel pretty confident in that. Ribovics has 150 sig. strike potential and I’d probably project him for 110+. Brener isn’t likely to clear 70 sig. strikes, and of the two, Brener gets hurt far more often.

If this is a pure striking fight, while Brener does have a prayer with random power and moments, Ribovics should clear him on volume and I’d guess should win comfortably either by decision, or by knockout.

Brener will likely wrestle though and that’s where I do think he’s live. He’s not great, but he’s attempting 5.3 takedowns per 15 minutes, and assuming he continues that pace, Brener will likely take Ribovics down a few times.

Brener is solid on the mat, and could maybe control Ribovics or threaten a sub. It’s not impossible, and winning a round with control is not impossible. And if he can win one round doing that, can he win two? Probably.

I am hopeful that Ribovics will get up without too much difficulty though. I am expecting the volume and damage to be comfortably on the side of Ribovics, meaning Brener will need to really seal rounds with lots of control, not just one short takedown with 30 seconds of control.

I don’t think he’s going to do it, personally. And I think Ribovics striking will be enough for him to comfortably win two or more rounds, and/or hurt Brener along the way.

—

On DraftKings, I don’t think Ribovics is a must play but I do still like him at 9.1k.

The issue is that he probably needs a knockout, and there’s an extra chance of Brener extending the fight with grappling. We’ve seen Ribovics win by decision multiple times and score 92 points, which is very likely not good enough in tournaments. Had he gotten his hand raised against Haqparast, he would have only scored 89 DK points.

And with that, you do not have to play him. This fight is -130 to end inside the distance which is decent, but obviously not a lock. If Ribovics wins a high paced decision, he probably won’t be optimal, especially given the strength of this range.

However, Brener has been getting hurt in many of his fights, and is finally coming off a loss by knockout. Ribovics has been head hunting and could easily hurt Brener along the way. A mid-round knockout + lots of significant strikes gives Ribovics a real high ceiling as well.

Ribovics is +140 to win ITD here which is lower than others, but I still think he is a solid tournament target given his pacing and potential to inflict damage. I do like other fighters in this range as well, but Ribovics is a comfortable secondary target for me who I feel should be mixed when in.

Brener is priced at 7.1k and is viable as well.

I don’t love him and don’t think he’s going to win the fight, but he very likely will be optimal if he does based on Ribovics’ pacing. He will need to hurt Ribovics or more likely outwrestle him for three rounds to win.

Brener is only +415 to win ITD and I wouldn’t expect a finish, but 3-5 takedowns + eight minutes of control seems pretty realistic in a win. Plus a bunch more significant strikes. That’s a good score for 7.1k.

I’ll still be light on Brener myself with a smaller portfolio, and I ultimately do not think he will get the job done. I don’t mind him as a tournament play though, especially if he won’t be highly owned, simply due to the high-pacing of the fight and Brener’s grappling equity.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Ribovics by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium)

Karol Rosa vs. Nora Cornolle

Fight Odds: Rosa -183, Cornolle +155

Odds to end ITD: +325

DraftKings Salaries: Rosa 8.6k, Cornolle 7.6k

Weight Class: 135

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

We have a blue-collar matchup here in the women’s bantamweight division between Karol Rosa and Nora Cornolle.

Rosa is probably best as a volume striker. She lands 6.22 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.84 in return. She can keep up a high pace and I generally like her ability to score offense. She recently went to war against Irene Aldana and landed a ridiculous 204 significant strikes in 15 minutes. She still lost the fight though and absorbed 145 significant strikes herself. However, she rebounded with a solid win against Pannie Kianzad. I really like the lead leg kick of Rosa as well.

Rosa also can land takedowns. She lands 1.09 takedowns per 15 minutes and is capable of obtaining and riding out top position. Her offensive takedowns are actually like awesome for not coming from a wrestling background. As a wrestling coach, I quite like the technique on her double leg. There is no wasted movement in it.

I just like Rosa’s overall willingness to try to score offense and she has the cardio to keep the output going.

Rosa defends takedowns at 70 percent and I consider her a decent defensive wrestler. She was outwrestled by Sara McMann. However, McMann is a seriously awesome takedown artist and has great top control as well. I didn’t think Rosa’s defensive wrestling looked all that bad in that matchup and it has looked good in others. Rosa played guard a little bit too long against McMann but I think it was more so because McMann is a very good wrestler than anything.

I think my biggest worry about Rosa is her fight IQ. She had all the tools to easily defeat Yana Santos and Ailin Perez, and she barely defeated Santos and lost to Perez.

Sometimes Rosa just wrestles when she should strike or strikes when she should wrestle. Sometimes she is just complacent to and doesn’t always show urgency. I still overall respect Rosa’s game though.

Rosa will be taking on Nora Cornolle who is now 3-1 in the UFC.

Cornolle comes from a kickboxing background and is 35 years old. Her kickboxing career isn’t extensive or decorated though and she lost plenty of those fights.

Cornolle is probably best as a damaging striker mostly in the clinch. She lands a lot of good knees to the body and other close quarter strikes from that position.

In Cornolle’s UFC debut, she generally damaged Joselyne Edwards from the clinch and landed some good shots from there. Over half of her significant strikes came from the clinch. She does look damaging in the clinch and definitely has some power in close quarters. I still thought Cornolle lost that fight and was gifted a home country decision. She was taken down 5 times by Edwards and controlled for 9 minutes. Her defensive grappling is poor.

Cornolle then fought Melissa Mullins in her second UFC fight and knocked Mullins out in round two. You saw Cornolle thrive in the clinch in that fight as well, and she landed a knee to finish Mullins.

Cornolle more recently lost to Jacqueline Cavalcanti by getting out skilled at range. It wasn’t a terrible performance though as Cavalcanti is decent. Cornolle then won a hilariously sloppy fight by rear naked choke over Hailey Cowan in her most recent fight.

I basically just consider Cornolle a dangerous clinch striker in close quarters. I have way less faith in her distance striking game though and am not sure she is good at distance.

I need to see more of her range game, but I have seen her hit and just look a little awkward in middle to long range striking distances. She also is clearly a bad defensive grappler and will get exposed on the mat at some point. She can land takedowns herself a bit using physicality but I don’t consider her a strong offensive grappler.

As far as this matchup goes, I really just think Rosa is better everywhere. She is a better striker than Cornolle at range and I think she could land calf kicks as well. Rosa is sometimes complacent though and Cornolle isn’t the worst distance striker so perhaps the distance striking is more competitive than I am projecting.

I also think Rosa is a better wrestler and could land takedowns on Cornolle as well. Cornolle may be able to land takedowns but I doubt they come easy or she can hold Rosa down. I think Rosa can honestly rack up offense anywhere and get top time as well.

Maybe Cornolle has an advantage in the clinch though. Rosa sometimes gets complacent against the cage and Cornolle may actively pursue that position. It is still not enough for me to pick Cornolle to win though. So Rosa is the pick as I just think she is a better fighter in all areas.

—

On DraftKings, I’ve loved to target Karol Rosa in past matchups but I’m very hesitant to pull the trigger here.

We love Rosa for her pure anomalous upside. We’ve seen her land 170+ sig. strikes multiple takedowns. We’ve seen her land 3+ takedowns multiple times. It’s led to massive scores in decisions, including 112, 110, 109, 105 and 94 which is absolutely elite.

It’s always difficult to project volume like that though, and in more recent fights, she’s fallen back to earth. While she scored 100+ DK points in her first three UFC performances, she has now only cleared that mark once in her last eight attempts.

In her last fight against Ailin Perez, Rosa really underperformed my expectations. Instead of pushing a pace and maximizing her win equity, she slowed down dramatically and allowed Perez to keep up with her, only landing 53 significant strikes, and it cost her the fight.

At 8.6k, we need those big numbers and we need Rosa to clear 90 points, if not more. And ultimately, I’m really worried that Cornolle is not an ideal matchup for Rosa to reach those numbers, at least from a striking standpoint.

Cornolle is absorbing 1.91 sig. strikes per minute and limited Cavalcanti to 54, who we’d previously seen top 100 sig. strikes. So can Rosa reach massive numbers? Maybe, but I think it’s much more likely she reaches a standard 80-120 sig. strike total than reach 170+.

The wrestling is an additional benefit for Rosa and can still allow her to reach a ceiling. I’d be hopeful she wrestles here… and control could come with it. Rosa is quite inconsistent with that though and hasn’t landed more than one takedown in any of her past five fights.

If Rosa does pursue takedowns, perhaps she can land 4+ takedowns, earn enough control and ground strikes, PLUS land volume any time it’s on the feet to get the marks we want. It feels like a tough path to project for sure. Rosa is also +525 to win ITD so there isn’t much finishing equity on paper.

I don’t totally blame you for pulling the trigger once more on Rosa. I would consider her from a pricing standpoint where I need to save some salary. I just don’t trust her to reach the marks we want anymore, especially on the mat, so I lean toward being light on Rosa generally.

Cornolle at 7.6k doesn’t interest me a whole lot but she’s viable from a win equity standpoint.

Simply put, I thought Rosa blew it in her last fight and Cornolle has done a decent job of winning optics. She can land big shots and potentially land a takedown or two, though I do think the overall offensive production of Rosa will make it hard for Cornolle to get her hand raised.

Additionally, Cornolle is only +575 to win ITD. A finish will be difficult here.

I don’t particularly like Cornolle for any reason other than that she may be able to fight competitively here, and score a few points along the way. I also worry that coming off another win ITD, Cornolle could be popular-ish at her price tag.

If floor is of interest to you, Cornolle gets a boost. At 7.6k, she has some general secondary viability as well.

I wouldn’t expect much more than 75-80 points in a win though, and I’m still not in love with many parts of Cornolle’s game. I think there are other dogs I’d rather take chances on for upside and I’m fine to end up near the field or a bit underweight.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Rosa by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)

Neil Magny vs. Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Fight Odds: Zaleski -198, Magny +167

Odds to end ITD: +120

DraftKings Salaries: Zaleski 8.8k, Magny 7.4k

Weight Class: 170

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

We have a bit of an old man fight here between aging UFC veterans Neil Magny and Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos.

Magny is a decent fighter. At his best, Magny has a great gas tank, and he weaponizes it tremendously.

Magny lands 3.43 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.48 in return. He defends strikes at 51 percent. He puts on a pace and generally outlands his opponents. He isn’t super skilled, but his cardio is great.

Magny does lack power. He rarely hurts opponents and can be cracked occasionally by opponents with more firepower. He is VERY susceptible to leg kicks and can get absolutely battered and neutralized by them. Ian Garry tore his legs up a couple of fights ago. Magny’s durability is also not great anymore and has been finished in his last two fights. However, both knockout losses came to Carlos Prates and Michael Morales who are good fighters and super dangerous. I still think it is safe to say that Magny has declined though.

Magny thrives at clinching opponents against the cage. He does a good job winning the position up against the cage and mixing in his strikes. He is also a capable wrestler landing 2.12 takedowns per 15 minutes. However, I don’t consider him a great wrestler or capable of outwrestling good wrestlers. He can more so take advantage of okay grapplers especially if he tires them with his pace. I do think he can work his clinch vs a lot of fighters though.

Magny is an okay defensive grappler but not a good one, and he has been exposed on the mat a lot recently. He defends takedowns at 53 percent. He can generally work up well but strong grapplers can have success against him.

Magny will be taking on Zaleski dos Santos. Zaleski is a very experienced fighter and has been around for a very long time. Zaleski is a bit of a freestyle fighter. He can strike a bit and is a decent submission grappler.

Zaleski lands 4.26 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.52 in return. He will use punches and kicks on the feet and he has some good striking diversity, and will use other tools like knees. He also has power and is capable of knocking out and hurting opponents. Overall, I just consider Zaleski an experienced striker who is somewhat dangerous.

He was recently knocked out though by Chidi Njokuani. I also thought his striking looked a bit poor vs Randy Brown as well. So he may be declining.

Zaleski only lands 0.75 takedowns per 15 minutes though and isn’t a great wrestler. He is a skilled grappler though and can threaten with submissions. He also defends takedowns at a solid 68 percent and has good scrambling ability. He mostly nullified Fakretdinov’s wrestling attack which was impressive. Zaleski overall just doesn’t have a ton of holes and I consider him a solid well-schooled fighter.

As far as this matchup goes, this is kind of a tough fight to call. I think I am struggling with it because both guys are a bit older now and I almost feel like I am guessing on who has declined less, which is a tough thing to do.

On the feet, I think Zaleski has more power and is more likely to win by one shot KO. I still think Magny may have a cardio and output edge though. I also think Magny may be able to get Zaleski vs the cage and have success there. Magny is seriously sneaky good at clinching against the cage.

I doubt Magny can easily land takedowns here though. Zaleski may be able to land a couple of takedowns or get the back, and I also think Zaleski is a better submission grappler. I still don’t have a ton of faith in Zaleski easily having wrestling success either.

I almost feel like this is a fight where Zaleski has more power on the feet while I think Magny has a cardio advantage. I overall see the fight as pretty competitive though.

I am going to go with Magny because I trust his cardio and size more at this point and haven’t loved the striking of Zaleski much lately. I also think the line is too wide as well. However, this is a fight Zaleski could easily win too and I have no problem with anyone picking Zaleski. Magny is very untrustworthy.

—

On DraftKings, this feels like an ugly fight to target.

Both fighters feel like they are toward the end of their respective careers, though that’s not to say they have nothing left in the tank. Both have been fighting strong competition as well.

Zaleski is priced at 8.8k and probably needs a knockout. He doesn’t even land 1 takedown per 15 minutes so it’s hard to project much excitement on that front. And volume shouldn’t really matter.

Magny has been getting knocked out badly recently so the KO does feel quite possible. But Magny has also been getting KOd by Prates and Morales, who are studs. And he’s beaten Mike Malott, Phil Rowe and Daniel Rodriguez in recent years.

So I can’t just say oh yeah Zaleski is going to KO Magny quickly, though I guess it’s possible. He is +165 to win ITD and can be a threat on the feet.

I honestly don’t mind Zaleski as a semi-contrarian target. I don’t think he’s a great option but he still carries the same or similar ITD line as several fighters priced above him. And I doubt he’ll be popular at 8.8k where folks will want to pay up for more likely finishes.

It feels like a risk, and I won’t really be prioritizing Zaleski at all. He does have some pop and there are chin concerns with Magny. Mixing him in at a low public ownership feels reasonable given there’s some finishing equity here.

Magny at 7.4k doesn’t feel like a great play for anything other than value.

He doesn’t land a lot of strikes, has little finishing equity and it’s tough to trust in his wrestling as well. The best argument I can make is that he’s a real veteran who’s grinded out many wins before. If he’s conscious he can probably compete.

I’m just not sure how he’s scoring points, and he’s only +575 to win ITD. This is still one of the more competitively lined fights on the slate, so Magny is a bit of a value in that sense at 7.4k. If he pulls off the win, it probably comes with some cage control time and strikes landed on the inside.

Magny just feels like a low-end, value based secondary target to me. If I want to save salary, he’s a viable mix-in. I have zero expectations here though and don’t expect him to produce a ton of points.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Zaleski by Decision (Confidence=Low)

Danny Silva vs. Kevin Vallejos

Fight Odds: Vallejos -416, Silva +331

Odds to end ITD: -175

DraftKings Salaries: Vallejos 9.4k, Silva 6.8k

Weight Class: 145

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

We have a gunfight here between rising UFC prospect Kevin Vallejos and UFC veteran Danny Silva.

Vallejos is an Argentine fighter who is 15-1 professionally and is 24 years old.

Vallejos actually fought the extremely popular Jean Silva on the Contender Series in September of 2023. He actually lost a very competitive 29-28 decision and was outlanded 87-71 in significant strikes. Vallejos actually got the better of Silva early but Silva landed the better power shots in the second half of the fight and was rightfully given the decision. That loss aged quite well as Vallejos was able to show off his boxing skills and durability in that matchup.

Vallejos later had a second chance on the Contender Series against Cam Teague. Vallejos dominated Teague and knocked him out in round one. Vallejos showed off his boxing combinations, and threw some fast hands and worked the body very well. The boxing combinations were awesome by Vallejos in that matchup and he relentlessly swarmed Teague to the body when he had him hurt. I always like when fighters attack the body. Vallejos then made his UFC debut and knocked SeungWoo Choi out in round one.

Vallejos is very much a boxer. I actually like his hands. He has some fast hands and can mix it up to the head and body. He also likes to mix in a low leg kick from the orthodox stance. He has good power as well and 11 of his 15 wins have come by knockout. He is also just tough as nails. He has never been finished and surviving Jean Silva in a 15 minute striking bout definitely shows that he is tough.

Vallejos can grapple a little. He isn’t a skilled grappler, but he is pretty physical and can get some occasional body lock takedowns, ride top position and land ground-and-pound. He only has a couple submission wins in his career and I don’t consider him a good submission grappler, but he seems to work through the motions a bit and seems competent and positionally sound.

I want to see more of his grappling tested though, especially defensively. His defensive grappling is a bit of a mystery to me.

I think Vallejos is a good addition to the UFC and he should be in some fun action fights in general. He can definitely do well on the feet in the UFC.

Vallejos will be taking on Danny Silva. Silva made his UFC debut against Josh Culibao and won a close split decision. Silva generally lost the striking against Culibao and was outlanded 87-45 in significant strikes.

However, he landed four takedowns and obtained over five minutes of control. It was a really close fight. He then won a close striking based split decision against Lucas Almeida in his most recent fight.

Danny Silva is 10-1 professionally coming from the LFA promotion. Silva was on the Contender Series in September of 2023 in a really fun fight. Silva landed 204 significant strikes but absorbed 197. Silva also landed a knockdown and two takedowns in that fight.

Silva showed a lot of offense in that fight which I like. He is still a bit sloppy and hittable though, and not too reliant on technique.

Silva is generally just a come forward volume striker who relies on output and cardio. He is a pretty decent boxer at times too. I don’t think he is a good fighter or anything, but you know what he is going to do. He is going to come forward and go after his opponent, and he also seems tough. He will also look to land takedowns as well. Nonstop offense wins fights at this level. So I think Silva can compete fine against average to below-average fighters in this division.

Silva is decent overall. He can strike in volume and wrestle in volume and has landed 2, 4, and 1 takedowns in the UFC. He isn’t the best defensive grappler though. I have seen him taken down and put in bad spots. Decent grapplers will surely have success against him. Overall, I just expect Silva to be in fun action fights at this level.

As far as this matchup goes, I think this is a fun fight. I do think Silva can potentially have some success. Silva will try to be aggressive and could potentially have striking success, especially towards the latter half of this fight if he slows Vallejos down by pushing a pace. I also think Silva can potentially test the defensive grappling of Vallejos.

Still though, I think Vallejos is still a better striker and boxer than Silva and I favor Vallejos on the feet especially when these guys are fresh. I also think Vallejos has more power.

Although Vallejos isn’t tested defensively as a grappler, I still don’t consider Silva a good wrestler either. Silva is simply a willing wrestler which may not be enough. Also, Vallejos has never been finished and even survived Jean Silva. So Danny Silva will probably have to win on the scorecards here and will probably lose the early portions of this fight somewhat clearly. So it may be an uphill battle for Silva.

So overall, I think Vallejos has more talent than Silva on paper and is my pick because of it. I expect this to be a fun one though and Silva is very tough so he can probably extend this fight.

—

On DraftKings, as much as it pains me to say it, I’m not particularly high on Vallejos.

Vallejos is a good prospect, yes, but he still profiles as a medium-volume, heavy-hitter who is likely to be in competitive fights.

In this particular matchup, Silva has tools to compete with Vallejos. Silva is likely faster. Silva is experienced. Silva may be the better or more willing wrestler, and Silva is bigger too. Vallejos basically just needs to knock him out quickly, which would be the first KO loss of Silva’s career.

Can it happen?? Of course.. Is a quick Vallejos KO the most likely outcome in my opinion? No.

I mostly think Vallejos is lined this highly because of his fun loss to Jean Silva on DWCS. Otherwise, he’s knocked out two total bums. No disrespect to SeungWoo Choi who I once viewed as legit, but Choi has been knocked down seven times in a five-fight span, including once by each opponent.

From a base scenario, I would expect Vallejos to be the one coming forward here, and landing the bigger shots. Maybe he can hurt Danny Silva. He probably will have the bigger moments. But I’d guess the most likely outcome is that Vallejos edges out a close decision with 100 significant strikes or less, which isn’t ideal on DK.

Of the two, Silva is the one who landed 204 sig. strikes in 15 minutes on DWCS though, and I don’t think he’ll have a huge problem keeping up with the pacing of Vallejos.

I’m not opposed to Vallejos as a prospect, nor playing him at 9.4k, but I do believe he needs an early KO to pay off. With two fighters priced directly above him who are capable of landing 10 takedowns a piece, it feels difficult for Vallejos to both hit his ceiling condition AND outlast the other big guns within this tier. And that still doesn’t account for Nakamura, Taira, Ribovics, Rebecki and Vieira below him.

Vallejos still rates out well with a -115 ITD line, and for that metric alone, he’s viable. I don’t particularly understand why people think he’s a near lock to win or win by KO though, and I don’t view him as an awesome fantasy target at 9.4k.

So I will likely be underweight to Vallejos, and just hope the fight can hit round two. Props to the kid if it doesn’t. Mix him in for KO upside if you wish but I think there are better plays in this range.

Silva at 6.8k seems like an interesting leverage target.

Again, we’ve seen him land 200 sig. strikes in a fight, where Vallejos already lost a striking based decision to a guy who landed 80. It’s not apples and oranges, but there’s a path there.

Plus, Silva landed four takedowns in his debut, and has landed a takedown in each of his last three tracked fights. I don’t expect wrestling to play a huge role but mixing in 1-2 takedowns is still valuable.

Vallejos looks tough so I wouldn’t bet on KO upside for Silva, and his ITD line is poor at +975.

I don’t view Silva as a fantastic target. The market suggests he loses at a high rate. Even if there is value on him from a ML standpoint I’m not sure how much. I do think he’s a viable and potentially sneaky target in what really could be a fun, competitive striking affair.

But I still only view him as a low-end target who is benefited by some additional leverage.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Vallejos by Decision (Confidence=Medium)

UNDERCARD

Rinya Nakamura vs. Nathan Fletcher

Fight Odds: Nakamura -420, Fletcher +333

Odds to end ITD: +145

DraftKings Salaries: Nakamura 9.3k, Fletcher 6.9k

Weight Class: 135

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

We have a battle between two grapplers here as Rinya Nakamura will take on Nathan Fletcher.

Man, Nakamura had a terrible performance in his last fight against Muin Gafurov where he lost a clean decision. Essentially, Nakamura didn’t try to wrestle and got stuck on the feet and lost clean. He was outlanded 37-31 in significant strikes and knocked down. That is awful volume from Nakamura and he clearly isn’t a developed round winning striker yet.

Nakamura comes from a freestyle wrestling background. He won gold at the U23 world championships and also took Bronze at the World cup in Iowa. He is a solid wrestler.

You can see Nakamura’s wrestling in his fights when he actually goes to it. Against Gugun Gusman, Nakamura took him down a couple of times and used advanced techniques like leg lacing to control top position. He then obtained a keylock. He also dominated Fernie Garcia and Carlos Vera on the mat as well for three rounds. He can definitely outwrestle UFC level competition and he will smash low tier UFC competition with his wrestling.

Nakamura is also just a good athlete. He is super fast and he has power on the feet. He knocked out two opponents early on the feet in the Road to UFC. He has a super quick straight left hand out of the southpaw stance and has massive power.

Nakamura is still just green on the feet though. That Gafurov performance was bad and it is clear round winning durable strikers can beat Nakamura. Hopefully he develops but I will mostly just trust Nakamura when he has a clear wrestling path or huge athleticism advantage.

Nakamura will be taking on Nathan Fletcher. Fletcher is a British fighter who is 9-2 professionally and he is 27 years old.

Fletcher fought on TUF where he lost to Karan Ofli by decision. He then made his UFC debut against Zygimantas Ramaska and dominated the fight with his grappling and won by submission. He then lost a close split decision to Caolan Loughran. He was taken down six times against Loughran but did a decent job working to his feet.

I mostly consider Fletcher a grappler. He is honestly a decent takedown artist and is decently skilled at flowing in top position and working for submissions. He has seven submission wins. I still think Fletcher is moreso made to beat weak grapplers though. I don’t see him easily outgrappling any good grappler. I just don’t think he is skilled enough for that. He is still decent though and is a decent back taker too.

Fletcher can be taken down himself as seen in the Loughran fight. However, I do think he scrambles up decently well and will make you work to hold position.

On the feet, Fletcher isn’t very good and he can be hurt standing as well. He is okay though and can sort of go through the motions. Still though, I trust Fletcher way more when he has a grappling advantage.

As far as this matchup goes, I understand why Nakamura is the favorite. Nakamura is a better wrestler on paper. Fletcher also generally thrives when he has a clear grappling advantage. Fletcher will probably struggle taking down and holding Nakamura down. So Fletcher’s main path to victory is likely nullified here. Nakamura can also probably land takedowns here as well.

I still think this fight can play out competitively though. Nakamura may not be able to easily control Fletcher and I could see Fletcher getting a back take on a reversal or scramble.

These guys may strike as well where both guys are not very good. If this plays out standing, this will be a mess. Nakamura has more power but Fletcher is probably more aggressive and more experienced. So I actually think this line is wide.

However, Nakamura is overall a more athletic and better wrestler so I will pick him to win. I just don’t see where Fletcher’s offense will come. Fletcher probably can’t land takedowns and he isn’t a volume striker either.

—

On DraftKings, I don’t feel a great desire to pay up for Nakamura based on his recent performances but he’s another wrestler who profiles to land takedowns here.

He hasn’t been able to finish any of his last three opponents, and showed pretty poor IQ in his last fight which resulted in a loss. He’s scored 85 and 91 in his last two decision wins.

With that said, Fletcher will probably want to force grappling exchanges and he’s coming off a loss in which he just gave up six takedowns, so I do think 5+ takedowns are in play for Nakamura here. Like others in this range, Nakamura is fairly safe to put up a strong score if he does win because of that perceived wrestling equity.

But I do not feel as safe with Nakamura as I do others in this range. Not for finishing purposes and not for pure takedown ceiling or general Fight IQ. He is +165 to win ITD which is pretty concerning too as it doesn’t indicate an amazing chance of an early finish.

Honestly, I probably won’t be on Nakamura much this weekend. I definitely prefer the wrestling upside of Bashi and Estevam, though I can see Nakamura matching them in theory if he comes in with a wrestling heavy gameplan.

Taira, Ribovics, Rebecki and Vieira are all priced directly below Nakamura, and all have merit as well.

I wouldn’t be shocked if Nakamura hit a 10x but I doubt that’s enough in this range, and I do think he needs a finish or a dominant performance. That outcome is still in play, and combined with the chances of him being overlooked in this range publicly, Nakamura is still viable.

I simply do not feel as sure that Nakamura is going to wrestle relentlessly, and score the finish, so at 9.3k, I think I would rather come in light and take chances elsewhere.

Fletcher at 6.9k doesn’t excite me too much.

He’s the type who I like to target for grappling equity, but this seems like a terrible matchup for him on paper. Nakamura doesn’t have a major defensive wrestling sample but he should limit Fletcher’s attack here.

I guess Fletcher could win striking exchanges but I really doubt he can keep that up, and then defend takedowns from Nakamura. Plus, Fletcher is only +775 to win ITD which is poor.

I don’t like Fletcher this week. I will target him in the future against much worse competition but I just don’t see his game being very successful against Nakamura, so I’d rather take dog shots elsewhere.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Nakamura by Decision (Confidence=Medium)

Rodolfo Vieira vs. Tresean Gore

Fight Odds: Vieira -209, Gore +176

Odds to end ITD: -215

DraftKings Salaries: Vieira 8.9k, Gore 7.3k

Weight Class: 185

After my excitement turned into disappointment last week with BJJ ace Marcus Buchecha losing his UFC debut, I’m hopeful we’ll see Rodolfo Vieira use the gifts he possesses to take out fellow middleweight Tresean Gore.

Vieira, like Buchecha, is a BJJ ace and one of the best submission grapplers in the sport today. He’s an incredible top player, who can pass the guard and threaten for a wide variety of finishes.

In the UFC, Vieira has won five times, and all five have come by submission, including four arm-triangles and one RNC.

He’s a decent wrestler, averaging 3.52 takedowns per 15 minutes, though he’s far more skilled as a pure grappler than as a wrestler. Those metrics are a bit skewed as well, as many of his fights end quickly, but we have seen Vieira land 4, 3, 3, and 3 takedowns in a handful of his fights.

As a striker, Vieira came into the sport without much confidence, but that has grown dramatically to the point where he can trade for three rounds and have success. He still isn’t likely to win with striking exchanges alone, but he’s a competent boxer who averages 3.33 sig. strikes per minute.

Two of his three UFC losses are both striking based decisions, against decent competition in Chris Curtis and Andre Petroski. Both fights were competitive too, but the primary reason Vieira lost was because he failed to land any takedowns. Against Curtis, Vieira went 0/20 and against Petroski he went 1/11.

I was actually scared to target Vieira in his last fight against Petroski for this reason. Petroski slows the pace of fights down now and is a pretty comfortable grappler himself. Petroski edged out the striking 55 to 58 and ultimately, it wasn’t a terrible loss for Vieira, though it is an indicator of his lack of ceiling.

Most importantly, I like that Vieira has proven to be tough. That first UFC loss came to Anthony Hernandez who Vieira took down four times, but couldn’t finish. Hernandez death gassed Vieira and was able to submit him, and it was pretty horrifying to watch.

Vieira has grown from that though. He has the cardio to fight three rounds now. He’s been hurt other times and come back to win.

I still essentially only want to target Vieira when I believe he can win grappling exchanges early, but he’s proven to be more well-rounded than his early career suggested.

Now he’ll face Tresean Gore, who is coming off taking a whooping by Marco Tulio in April. Tulio landed 127 sig. strikes with two knockdowns in eight minutes before the ref eventually jumped in.

It wasn’t the first embarrassing loss Gore has had. And honestly, I’m not a fan of Gore. I hate how often he’s pulled out of fights, ducked regional fighters, and I think his style sucks.

He’s still earned two wins in five tries in the UFC, and he is dangerous to a degree. Gore carries real power in his hands, and if he’s able, he’ll walk you down and throw big shots in hopes of getting the stoppage.

The problem is that he barely throws any volume. He’s averaging 2.77 sig. strikes landed per minute while absorbing 8.16 with a 36 percent defensive rate. It’s hard to get much worse.

His numbers are skewed too, clearly, but he was outlanded 57 to 112 by Bryan Battle in his UFC debut. He landed 10 strikes in six minutes against Fremd, and was outlanded 127 to 17 by Tulio in eight minutes. He just doesn’t throw enough volume and his defense sucks.

Given this alone, he projects to be a fighter who needs to win by KO or do big damage to have success in striking rounds.

As a grappler, Gore isn’t particularly strong but he does have a nice guillotine choke, which he’s used to secure both UFC wins over Fremd and Trocoli, two low-level opponents.

Gore also lands 2.62 takedowns per 15 minutes, though that number is skewed as well. He’s landed 3, 2, 1, 0 and 0 takedowns in his five fights. He’s ok. His wrestling is alright and he can land takedowns.

I just don’t think he can have real control success, which is a major problem. His submission grappling isn’t special and he’ll need something like the guillotine to finish fights.

In total, Gore is a finish or bust fighter. He doesn’t produce enough volume and his defense is bad. He’ll very likely get outclassed by anyone decent, but he has enough big shot threat or some slight sub upside to get his hand raised on occasion.

As far as this matchup, I do like Vieira, but there are questions as to what will happen if he can’t get takedowns.

The good news is he should at least try. Even in recent losses, he was attempting lots of takedowns per round, which gives him a high floor. It also typically means that if he can land even 1-2, he’ll eventually find the sub, which has been the case in all of his wins.

Gore defends takedowns at 83 percent though so I’m not totally sure how easy it will be for Vieira to get him down. Gore also hasn’t fought great wrestlers, and still has given up the occasional takedown to Battle and Brundage.

My best guess is Vieira can take him down. It may not come instantly but if Vieira attempts 10+ takedowns, he seems likely to land a few. Gore may try to stand up quickly but Vieira should be able to take his back, and then flatten him on the mat to pick up a RNC or arm-triangle finish.

Again, if he cannot, Gore is obviously live to win.

Gore has more power for sure, and could hurt Vieira at any point. If Vieira death gasses again I guess we could see another Gore sub in play, but if Gore goes to the sub too early he’ll just end up on the bottom and lose.

Even over 15 minutes, I wouldn’t be that opposed to picking Vieira to win outright in stand-up exchanges though, as Vieira throws decent volume and can jab. I wouldn’t be shocked to see him win a striking round.

Gore can hurt him though, and Vieira has been hurt multiple times. I do think a knockout is in play. Gore chasing Vieira to the ground after a KD won’t be easy though as it could get him caught and could allow Vieira to recover.

But this feels like a fight where Gore has to chase the knockout, and he’ll either get it early, or likely get taken down and subbed.

—

On DraftKings, this is definitely a fight I want to target.

Vieira is my preferred play at 8.9k for his early grappling upside. If he wins, the most likely scenario is an early submission.

In his previous wins, Vieira has scored 114, 91, 84, 106 and 106. It shows a reasonable floor and a decent ceiling, though still not a guarantee if it comes late. Vieira is only -115 to win ITD here which is good, but not incredible, so there is some risk.

To me, Vieira is an easy target. He may just lose but who cares. If he wins, it’s probably coming from early takedowns and the sub. At 8.9k, he has a solid chance to exceed value in that kind of win, and I like the discount we get from the top end.

I don’t consider Vieira exceptionally safe though, and there is bust risk if he cannot land those early takedowns, but on this kind of slate, I’m happy to take some upside shots on him in what is likely to be a bounce back matchup.

Gore at 7.3k has knockout upside.

I can’t really imagine him winning without hurting Vieira, and/or finding a finish. Gore won’t have any kind of floor, isn’t likely to land takedowns or do much of anything. But if he does something, it’s probably an early knockout.

Gore is only +340 to win ITD which isn’t great, and he may not be popular coming off another brutal loss. He’s not a good fighter so it’s tough to get too excited. Like last week though, there are some binary elements to this kind of matchup and Gore at least has fight-changing power.

So I’m willing to target him personally. I won’t be drastically overweight but at 7.3k, but he carries upside and leverage against Vieira, so he’s a fine boom/bust secondary target.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Vieira by RNC, RD 1 (Confidence=Medium)

Nick Klein vs. Andrey Pulyaev

Fight Odds: Pulyaev -155, Klein +132

Odds to end ITD: -200

DraftKings Salaries: Pulyaev 8.4k, Klein 7.8k

Weight Class: 185

*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe

Nick Klein’s a Contender Series alum from this past season who’s still in search of his first UFC win after dropping his debut back in February – he’s 6-2 as a pro. Andrey Pulyaev’s a fellow Contender Series alum from this past season who’s also still in search of his first UFC win after losing his debut – he’s 9-3 as a pro.

The striking component:

Our footage on Klein is somewhat limited but he’s a lanky guy for the weight class, standing 6’1” with a 77” reach.

He’s a grappler by base, not very high volume and the best way to describe his stand up is basic – low leg kicks, jab and the occasional straight right/elbow in tight.

He KO’d an 0-3 guy in 17 seconds in his 2nd pro fight but hasn’t shown to possess any real power – yes, he hurt Abdul-Malik in his debut but it was with a spinning fist which was memey/random. He’s more so just using his striking to try to keep range and then set up his TDs.

Defensively, he hasn’t faced a ton of volume back his way but has elements of tall man’s defense with a loser guard, and he doesn’t like pressure. We saw that in his first pro loss to Dokaj and while Abdul-Malik barely threw anything back at him, the moment he opened up the clinch, Klein wanted no part.

That’s about all there is to say with him standing at this point but I don’t foresee much striking success for him at the UFC level.

Pulyaev is a lanky guy at 185 lbs., standing 6’4” with a 78” reach and is a striker first.

He kind of reminds me of a poor man’s version of Trey Ogden ironically, not only in how both guys look but in how both guys fight – very upright, rigid, outside, pot shotty, jab, check, cross, kick, etc.

He was higher output on DWCS, landing 98 SS, but over the large bulk of his career, he hasn’t really been a volume guy and has been a more tepid striker with some explosive actions that have put lesser opponents down. But unlike Ogden, he’s not great defensively and is somewhat slow.

He’s just a guy that’s fought a very low level of competition in the aggregate so many haven’t been able to make him pay for some of his poor tendencies. He has been KO’d once a few years back and struggled with Duncan’s movement and speed in his debut which was to be expected in fairness.

Overall, 185 isn’t the deepest division in the world so Pulyaev realizing striking success over lower tier UFC guys is on the table, especially for those who just let him operate in what he wants to do. But he’s a negative athlete and will be a knockout liability at this level – kind of surprised Duncan didn’t put him down but I think that’s more on Duncan that what Pulyaev did.

How it plays out: Despite me not thinking Pulyaev is a world beater with his own issues, he’s pretty clearly the better striker in this fight. I just haven’t really seen anything of substance on the side of Klein, coupled with that he doesn’t hit hard enough conventionally to where I’d be concerned about Pulyaev getting KO’d here. Assuming Pulyaev can replicate a more consistent volume performance similar to DWCS, he shouldn’t have much issue standing here. Despite me not thinking he’s a crazy hitter himself, he does have some KO equity in his own right especially if Klein isn’t getting off on his game. I like Pulyaev on the feet.

The wrestling/grappling component:

Klein reps a BJJ purple belt but I’m unsure if he has a wrestling background.

He’s shown decent double legs at times but often shoots from further out. He has a decent back take and three RNCs on the rap sheet, but has had struggles keeping down more competent opponents and from conventional positions.

Conversely, he’s had struggles being outwrestled himself, having seen that in his amateur loss to Nebraska wrestler Nyle Bartling, his last amateur loss Ahrens where he was heel hooked (the fight is graded incorrectly) and in his lone regional pro loss to Canadian Dorjan Dokaj – he was positionally TKO’d by Bartling and Dokaj.

Klein’s also a guy that’s constantly fishing for leg locks which I don’t like because it’s going to leave him additionally susceptible to taking more ground damage.

Overall, Klein just seems like a regional jiu-jitsu guy to me as I think he’s going to struggle consistently grounding people at the UFC level for technical and physicality reasons – there is some opportunistic nature to his game though.

Pulyaev’s realized sparing levels of ground success over his career but he’s traditionally shown to be a negative wrestler.

He’s not the most difficult guy to close distance on so multiple opponents have been able to get to his hips and look to shuck him down from body lock positions where he’s shown to give up minutes – it’s how his first pro loss came back in 2022.

He also conceded some minutes to a gassed out Anderson on DWCS and has gotten stuck against the fence in certain scenarios when his TDD has held up.

In Pulyaev’s defense, he has shown to reverse positions at times or look to attack from his back to secure guard subs.

So he’s not completely inept and has landed some TDs of his own here and there, but in the tape I’ve watched, he’s going to struggle on the ground at the UFC level. His defensive wrestling has looked better in his last two fights though.

How it plays out: This is where the fight probably favors Klein. I only say probably just because he’s more consistent to shoot with a better transitional game, coupled with some of Pulyaev’s ground struggles. However, I still don’t love Klein’s wrestling and Pulyaev has shown some offensive/reversal/submission competency himself whereas we’ve also seen Klein look poor on the bottom in a handful of fights. Nonetheless, I would give more upside to Klein.

Shit fight between two guys that will probably be lucky if they make it to a second UFC contract. Given the lower level nature, there is some variance associated but I do come out liking Pulyaev in the matchup a bit as he’s got most of the striking upside and has “some” ground equity of his own – I also think Pulyaev has more finish equity in the fight.

—

On DraftKings, this is an awful fight that has fantasy potential if it ends inside the distance.

Pulyaev will likely need a knockout at 8.4k, and I do think he has potential for it. He’s +120 to win ITD so he rates out decently well for the price.

He’s just so bad. He’s not physical, and I hate the optics of his game. Betting lots of money on him to win a fight at the UFC level, let alone win by KO, feels wrong.

I also think the public will be scared off to a degree for these same reasons.

Don’t think too hard about this one. Pulyaev has some KO upside against a weak opponent in front of him, but it’s tough to project exactly how much. An extended fight likely means a bust.

I’m not going to let this fight kill me so I’ll aim to be near the field on Pulyaev for that finishing equity. I do think coming in a bit overweight is a solid strategy as well if the field is scared off.

Klein at 7.8k has some grappling and finishing equity.

He attempted nine takedowns in his last fight against Abdul-Malik, and prior to that won by RNC in 37 seconds on DWCS, so that’s somewhat appealing. I would expect him to wrestle again and if he wins, it could easily come ITD.

Klein is +250 to win ITD which is fine for his price tag, and he likely has the higher ceiling of the two as well. A grappling based victory is going to put Klein in contention for the optimal.

Again, I don’t think Klein is very good. I’m not dying to put money on him to win fights. I won’t even pick him to win this one.

I also don’t want this fight to kill me and he at least has wrestling equity in a semi-competitively lined matchup, with a relatively low public ownership as well. Coming in near the field makes sense, and I think it’s viable to be a bit overweight on the field as a whole as well, just given the overall -200 ITD line.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Pulyaev by Decision (Confidence=Low)

Austin Bashi vs. John Yannis

Fight Odds: Bashi -670, Yannis +494

Odds to end ITD: Over 1.5 RDs -175

DraftKings Salaries: Bashi 9.6k, Yannis 6.6k

Weight Class: 145

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

I am excited to see Austin Bashi back in the cage this weekend where he will be taking on UFC debutant John Yannis.

Bashi is coming off a close decision loss to Christian Rodriguez. However, I thought Bashi looked good in that fight. He landed three takedowns on Rodriguez but was outstruck on the feet and couldn’t easily control Rodriguez. Rodriguez is just simply a very good defensive grappler.

Bashi is 13-1 professionally and is 23 years old. He has been involved in martial arts since a young age and has a background in wrestling and BJJ. He won IBJJF No-Gi worlds as a brown belt and has since been promoted to black belt. He also comes from a solid high school wrestling background in Michigan as well.

As you would expect, Bashi wins most of his fights by wrestling and mixing in his BJJ. He is very tenacious with his takedowns and landed 10 takedowns on the Contender s

Series. I definitely like his tenacity blended with the fact that he is a solid wrestler. That style will certainly win him fights in the UFC. I also think he is a decent back taker too. He will put in body triangles which I like.

However, I do think Bashi is a bit sloppy with his top control. I don’t think his wrestling is particularly elite and I don’t think his top control is either. I think good defensive wrestlers can likely give Bashi issues but Bashi will absolutely feast on below-average to average defensive wrestlers.

Bashi’s cardio is good too. I know he lost to Rodriguez but I still thought he fought well.

Bashi’s striking looks okay but not great and he looks green. He can wing some hooks and and seems tough. However, I worry about his defense and experience on the feet. I don’t trust him there yet. Rodriguez kind of exposed him there.

Still though, Bashi is going to smash guys that he can outgrapple and I still do like his grappling game and the pace he brings.

Bashi will be taking on UFC debutant John Yannis. Yannis is 9-3 professionally and is 31 years old. He has mostly fought in Fury FC, an okay regional promotion where he was featherweight champion. In his last fight he knocked out former UFC fighter Nick Aguirre in the fourth round.

I mostly just consider Yannis a competent striker. His last three wins have all come by knockout. He basically just looks to strike. I don’t totally love his volume or his pace but he is reasonably skilled as a striker and has some KO upside.

I also think he has decent cardio. He also seems tough and durable and has never been knocked out in his career.

Overall though, Yannis doesn’t have much more than that. He doesn’t wrestle really and has never won by submission. So he doesn’t have a ton of other offensive options.

I also don’t really trust Yannis as a defensive grappler. He was taken down and submitted in his last loss against Gabriel Wanderley. He was also taken down and body triangled by Nick Aguirre multiple times even though he won that fight.

It is hard for me to look at those sequences and like Yannis’ chances to beat Bashi. Bashi is by far the best wrestler and grappler that Yannis has faced. My guess is Bashi will push a wrestling pace and just land takedowns and obtain dominant positions on the mat. My guess is that will eventually lead to a backtake and a submission. Perhaps Yannis can survive with Bashi on his back but I doubt Yannis can keep Bashi off of him either.

The only real chance Yannis has is if he gets a striking fight. I do think he is a more experienced and dangerous striker here. However, Bashi is just so relentless with his takedowns so I doubt Yannis will get those opportunities. My guess is Bashi just rinses Yannis on the mat.

—

On DraftKings, I may have to go back to the well with Bashi this week.

I was really high on Bashi in his UFC debut, and frankly, I am still high on him as a prospect, despite the debut loss to Rodriguez.

Bashi still attempted 18 takedowns in 15 minutes, in what was a competitive loss. Rodriguez is known for being a neutralizer as well, so it’s really no shame in losing that kind of battle as a 23 year old.

The bigger issue with this particular situation is that Bashi is now the most expensive fighter on the board at 9.6k. By default, he’s not a must. And even priced right below him is a guy in Estevam who just landed 11 takedowns and crushed in a decision.

The difference here is that I feel there’s a bigger discrepancy between Bashi and his opponent, compared to Estevam and his opponent. Yannis is a fine striker and has some survivability skills on the ground, but Yannis has given up lots of takedowns on the regionals, given up his back at times and been subbed before.

If Yannis can survive early exchanges, great, I still think it’s likely Bashi will attempt a dozen or more takedowns and I do think he eventually finds the back. From there, a RNC is very possible. And with the late notice on Yannis, I think it’s much more likely that Bashi outlasts him than what we saw in Bashi’s debut where it was Rodriguez who had the better tank.

I simply don’t think Yannis will be able to compete with Bashi’s wrestling and that will give Bashi a very high floor/ceiling. Again, at 9.6k, he is not a must.

ITD odds aren’t out yet but I would expect Bashi’s to be reasonable, and he carries lots of wrestling equity, including what we saw on DWCS which was 10 takedowns in 1.5 rounds, and a relatively weak opponent in front of him. If I can pay up, I probably will pay up first to Bashi who I expect will score strongly in a win.

The downside I guess is that one takedown and a sub is also possible, so we could see Bashi look great and score 98 points. Sometimes early subs get screwed. I don’t think it’s a lock Bashi ends up optimal even with a submission.

But it’s hard to overlook the sub potential + the theoretical 5+ takedown potential, plus control, etc. Bashi will rate out very well because of it and although targeting the lower 9ks is a very solid strategy, I wouldn’t mind getting back on the Bashi horse this week.

Yannis at 6.6k doesn’t really interest me.

I haven’t seen him wrestle much offensively on the regional scene and I haven’t seen much offensive submission grappling from him either. His striking is fine but not particularly great.

He could beat Bashi if he can defend takedowns and scramble up though. He can box and he throws a lot of kicks. The cardio element seems tough on short notice and it’s just difficult to see him scoring lots of points.

Yannis is a big dog and won’t have a strong ITD line either. I think a close, low-scoring decision is the most likely outcome if he wins at all. I probably won’t be investing here personally, and would rather pay up to better situations when possible.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Bashi by RNC, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium-High)

Rafael Estevam vs. Felipe Bunes

Fight Odds: Estevam -541, Bunes +414

Odds to end ITD: -105

DraftKings Salaries: Estevam 9.5k, Bunes 6.7k

Weight Class: 125

*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe

Felipe Bunes bypassed the Contender Series on the heels of winning the vacant LFA flyweight title. But he got a tough debut booking in Joshua Van back in January where he got finished in the 2nd round, and is now coming off a submission win over Jose Johnson – he’s 14-7 as a pro. Rafael Estevam hailed from the Brazilian regionals and earned a contract on the Contender Series back in 2022. He won his debut over Charles Johnson the following year and is more recently coming off a decision against Jose Aguilar – he’s 13-0 as a pro.

The striking component:

Bunes is a good-sized flyweight standing 5’7” with a 71” reach.   

He’s a base grappler with the majority of his fight time being spent on the floor, but we have some footage of him at space as well. He works in a more tepid pace being on the lower end of the volume equation, but has shown some quicker actions.   

We saw him put Horiuchi down relatively quickly with a nice left hook in his last regional fight. We’ve also seen him hurt opponents with some spinning/jumping attacks, but you can’t really expect Bunes to go out there and “pace” guys at the same time.   

Just given his tepid style, he’s also not eating a high volume of strikes either and hadn’t been KO’d in his pro career prior to his outing against Van, who was able to pick up the pace in the 2nd round as he traditionally does to break down Bunes and get him out of there. Bunes looked fine standing early in the fight though. At the end of the day, you can’t penalize the guy much considering the ascension of Van who’s now in the title picture.

But I still think he’ll run into some bigger issues defensively now fighting at a UFC level as he can stand upright and we have seen him hit clean on more than one occasion.   

Overall, Bunes appears to be a capable striker despite his grappling base, but I would like to see a bit higher willingness from him.

Our overall and recent footage on Estevam is somewhat limited so it’s still a bit tricky to make out his striking prowess.

In what we have, he’s a traditional Brazilian pressure thai boxer.

He’ll more so march forward and let his strikes fly as he’s not concerned about being taken down. He’s got four finishes via strikes, but they’ve all come on the ground so despite being aggressive and committing to strikes, he hasn’t shown to be very dangerous.

He’s additionally pretty poor defensively as he can fight with his hands down and there isn’t a ton of head movement in his game. While we didn’t see much distance time in his last two fights with Johnson and Aguilar, he dropped round three in both contests – was outlanded 53-11 at distance by Johnson and 31-9 by Aguilar.

That’s about all there is to say with him at this point.

How it plays out: Off the top, both guys are bigger flyweights with essentially identical measurables so not much to report there. The striking’s weird to analyze just because we don’t have a ton to work with on the Estevam side – coupled with Bunes not being nearly as aggressive as guys like Johnson and Aguilar. However, I would probably favor Bunes on the feet just in the sense that we’ve seen more of him, he’s relatively technical and has “some” power. But it’s another fight I wouldn’t anticipate we see much distance time – maybe five minutes at the most.

The wrestling/grappling component:

Bunes is a recently crowned 2nd degree BJJ black belt under the Pitbull brothers.   

We haven’t really seen him have a ton of wrestling success in his fights outside of his LFA fight against Cruz where he landed four TDs and got roughly seven minutes of top time.

He landed a couple TDs on Van and briefly mounted him, but it was towards the end of the 1st round.   

His success more so comes transitionally or with presented opportunities as he’s got a slick triangle-armbar series, will threaten buggy chokes and can sweep – we saw him snatch up the arm of Jose Johnson quickly in his last outing as well.

He had a 3-year stint over in the Russian based promotion ACA where he had struggles against a handful of Caucus Russians.   

Bunes was able to secure a flying triangle in his promotion debut there and guard subbed Silander – he was able to threaten a few other guys with some viable attempts but ultimately lost based on wrestling – in his defense, the guys he lost to were all very good with a combined 25-1 record.  

His most recent regional loss came to former top UFC flyweight Jussier Formiga – Formiga came in massively overweight but did ultimately out grapple and find the back of Bunes to submit him.   

Overall, I respect the BJJ of Bunes and his last five losses are all completely understandable. But he does have the tendencies of a guy that can play guard and I still question how good his offensive wrestling really is – he has looked generally strong when he’s in top positions though and is incredibly opportunistic and not a fighter opponents can make many ground mistakes against.

Estevam’s a BJJ black belt out of the Nova Uniao camp under Andre Pederneiras.

The bulk of his fights have displayed similar patterns where he’s looking to shoot TDs early and often where he’s found lots of success grounding opponents.

He’s displayed good GNP but has also shown good passing abilities to attain mount or the back, with three wins via submission.

His control on a per TD basis has been a bit all over the board because he can sacrifice attacking at times and generally has more attritional/mat return elements to his game where even if guys work up on him, he stays on them – he’s shot 41 TDs in his last two fights for reference.

Nonetheless, he’s still shown the ability to ride out minutes and win with his wrestling with five decision wins which is a positive as well.

Defensively, he hasn’t been tested all that much but isn’t immune to being taken down or conceding some minutes – that’s usually been from lost positions though but he’ll still immediately be looking to re-wrestle.

But he’s shown the ability to posture out of guard attacks and defend submissions well to date.

Overall, despite Estevam getting tired in some of these fights, he brings a pretty tough style to deal with because he’s not going to fuck off and has complementary jiu-jitsu to supplement with his wrestling – although I still don’t consider him anything special a pure submission grappler.

How it plays out: The ground should be somewhat fun here. While both guys are black belts, I’d give a submission grappling advantage to Bunes. However, I feel Estevam is a pretty competent defensive grappler and his pressure wrestling style poses some large issues to Bunes. While Bunes isn’t an incapable TD defender, he is a guy who likes to play from the bottom and I don’t see that being great here against a guy who’s capable of shooting 20 TDs in a fight if need be. While Estevam gets tired in his own style, I also feel his style is going to wear Bunes out pretty significantly as well – both of Estevam’s last two opponents in Johnson and Aguilar have better cardio than Bunes which needs to be noted.

Funky fight where both guys have their pros and cons. I do feel Estevam’s day is coming to take his first official L but I don’t think this is the spot. As noted, Bunes is an opportunistic grappler where him snagging something wouldn’t be “shocking” but it would be a bit surprising to me. Unfortunately, I think we’ll see a quasi-repeat of what Estevam has been able to do thus far and wrestle his way to a decision over Bunes – I do think Estevam has some GNP finish potential here as well though.

—

On DraftKings, this matchup is pretty intriguing for the grappling equity on both sides though it also scares me.

Estevam is coming off an 11-takedown performance which scored him 116 points in a win. Prior to that, he landed three takedowns and scored 72 points.

It’s worth noting that he’s not landing any significant strikes, and hasn’t eclipsed 20 in either decision. His fantasy upside is entirely reliant on wrestling and grappling, which is both good and bad.

Here, it’s tricky because Bunes is a high-level submission grappler, but not the best wrestler. It’s possible Estevam could look to strike more but I still think he’ll wrestle, and have success.

When he does, he’ll have to contend with the BJJ of Bunes which may ultimately cost him. If it does not, Estevam is likely to land another 3-5 takedowns with large amounts of control. He could land ground strikes and possibly score a TKO as well.

Although takedowns and control could still push Estevam toward 100 points, I think you need a finish for Estevam to reach a real ceiling in this matchup. Bunes may yield some takedowns and control but the fight could be slower paced on the feet and he may threaten Estevam at times too. But if Estevam can land takedowns, ground strikes AND get the finish, his ceiling is large.

Estevam is only +170 to win ITD here which I guess is concerning. Bunes has lost four times by DEC, once by sub and twice by TKO. I do think Estevam can finish the fight but I’m not extremely confident in that.

This one is tough. Estevam is priced up at 9.5k so he’s clearly not cheap. There are other viable targets below him and within this top tier. For that reason, he is far from a must, and I think if forced to choose, I’d take Bashi over him straight up for finihsing equity.

I don’t think Estevam carries 11 takedown upside in this matchup either, though even in a decision, I’d expect Estevam to score well. And it’s not wrong to want exposure here given his willingness to shoot takedowns.

I honestly probably won’t end up with a ton of Estevam. There are just too many reasonable targets priced below him that I’d rather save the salary with. If you can afford Estevam, he’s certainly viable and has paths to the optimal, but playing into the lower 9ks makes a lot of sense as well.

Bunes doesn’t feel like he’s completely out of the matchup despite being a huge dog.

Estevam has some issues. He isn’t a great range striker, and his cardio is pretty questionable. He sort of looks like a future fade to me.

At the same time, I don’t love Bunes’ game. If he’s having success standing, Estevam will clearly try to take him down so the fight will ultimately come down to that.

Bunes is very capable of guard submissions so he could pull off a finish. He might also be able to take Estevam down though I don’t think he’s a great scrambler. He probably just does need the sub or a super close two rounds.

At 6.7k, with a +400 ITD line, Bunes isn’t going to rate out incredibly well. He has zero floor.

He does have some upside and is coming off a 92 point win which is semi-repeatable.

I think it’s fine if you want a small mix of Bunes this week, just hoping he can pull off another armbar type sub. I don’t think he’s a very exciting target though, and I’d rather pay up a bit higher for more win equity personally.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Estevam by Decision (Confidence=Medium)

Piera Rodriguez vs. Ketlen Souza

Fight Odds: Rodriguez -221, Souza +186

Odds to end ITD: +215

DraftKings Salaries: Rodriguez 8.7k, Souza 7.5k

Weight Class: 115

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

We have a solid matchup here in the strawweight division between Piera Rodriguez and Ketlen Souza.

Rodriguez is 10-2 professionally and 3-2 in the UFC. Obviously one of her losses was a DQ loss to Carnelossi in a fight she was dominating so she realistically has only lost one fight. I actually think Rodriguez looked decent in her wins against Kay Hansen, Sam Hughes, and Josefine Knutsson. She then got outgrappled against Gillian Robertson. Robertson is a really good grappler so I won’t be too hard on Rodriguez for that loss.

Rodriguez is a decent boxer and she has some decent hands. She lands 3.40 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.63 in return, and defends strikes at 57 percent. I consider her best in close quarters where she can throw her hook / boxing combinations. She is somewhat skilled in close range, but I don’t consider her all that great either. However, I do think she does a good job staying composed under pressure and evading / limiting engagements. I thought she handled the pressure of Hughes well and generally stayed safe on the feet. She also hurt Carnelossi and handled her well so you can tell Rodriguez is at least competent standing.

Rodriguez will also mix in takedowns. She lands 4.06 takedowns per 15 minutes and attempts about eight takedowns per fight. I actually consider her a decent grappler with solid takedowns. She has landed 3, 3, 5, and 8 takedowns in her four UFC decisions. I like that consistency. She is also one of the rare women who know how to actually finish a single leg. Her last grappling performance against Knutsson was very impressive.

I actually consider Roriguez’s defensive wrestling decent. She defends takedowns at 66 percent and can generally scramble up as well.

I don’t mind Rodriguez honestly. She can strike a bit, grapple a bit, seems tough, and her cardio is fine too. She is UFC level.

Rodriguez will be taking on Ketlen Souza who is coming off a split decision loss to Angela Hill. Before that, she had a massive club and sub upset finish win against Yazmin Jauregui.

Souza is 15-5 professionally and was the Invicta flyweight champion. She lost her UFC debut by submission against Karine Silva. She then won a decision against Marnic Mann, basically by outstriking her at distance. She then defeated Jauregui.

Souza is decent. She is a competent striker and is capable of landing big shots occasionally. I don’t totally trust her volume but she can crack a bit and has some decent skills on the feet. She has some decent hands and can mix in kicks. She is a competent fighter who can fight through the motions. She still was outlanded 29-16 at range against Jauregui though. So although Souza won, she probably needed that finish to win. She still struck competitively with Hill though so she is clearly capable on the feet.

Souza is also a capable grappler. She can land some takedowns here and there and knows how to flow with BJJ on the mat. She can be stuck on her back though and is a little too willing to play guard. She still knows basic guard retention and can threaten with submissions. I also think Souza has good cardio.

Souza is just fine. She is a pretty well-rounded fighter with no major holes. However, she doesn’t thrive at anything either.

As far as this matchup goes, I do think this is a competitive matchup. On the feet, I consider this quite competitive and I really don’t think either girl has a clear edge. Souza may have a little more power on the feet. However, Rodriguez may be a bit more sound defensively. I just think striking rounds will be very close.

I think Rodriguez is the better grappler though. Rodriguez just simply lands takedowns every fight and attempts nearly quadruple the takedowns of Souza. I also think Souza has trouble getting up at times. So if anyone lands takedowns and gets moderate control here, I think it will be Rodriguez.

That alone is enough for me to favor Rodriguez and pick her to win. Rodriguez just has that additional path to victory. I still think Souza is a competent grappler so she may not get dominated or may mix in a takedown herself. However, Rodriguez just has more upside on the mat.

So overall, I just expect these women to strike competitively with Rodriguez having more takedown and control upside. So Rodriguez is the pick.

—

On DraftKings, Rodriguez is yet another fighter with moderate wrestling equity.

She’s coming off an eight takedown performance which scored her 113 points on DraftKings. In her other two UFC wins, she landed 3 and 5 takedowns and scored 80 and 93.

So really, Rodriguez has been pretty safe to wrestle and she’s scored well in all of her wins, though not all have hit a ceiling.

I can’t say I feel particularly safe with Rodriguez, but my guess is that she’ll wrestle once again versus Souza. I don’t think Souza is awful but Souza has given up takedowns to three of her four UFC opponents, including weak comp like Marnic Mann, and she was subbed by Karine Silva.

If Rodriguez wins, my guess is 3-5 takedowns come along with it once again, as will some control. I doubt she gets a finish though and she’s only +410 to win ITD, which is poor.

I have mixed feelings here because Rodriguez is going to rate out well for grappling equity at 8.7k. But 3-5 takedowns may not be enough. And it’s tough to project her for another eight.

Still, it’s a relatively cheap cost for a fighter who intends to wrestle. And in the worst case scenario you probably still get near 10x on Rodriguez.

I can’t say Rodriguez is a must. She won’t land a ton of strikes and her path to a smash seems unlikely. But her path to an 85-95 point score via wrestling does seem pretty plausible and at her cost, I think she’s worthy of mixing in.

I doubt I’ll end up much overweight to Rodriguez but I can see using her as a solid secondary target for her price and wrestling equity.

Souza at 7.5k is a fine secondary target for win equity.

She’s not a great fantasy scorer though, and in her lone decision win, Souza only put up 80. She would have scored 59 against Hill if she’d gotten her hand raised in that split, and she’s only +410 to win ITD here.

I definitely don’t love Souza. I do think she can compete on the feet and maybe mix in a takedown or two. Maybe rounds are competitive and she scores another 75 points or so. It’s not the worst play at cost.

I would prefer fighters with more finishing upside on paper and I’ll likely prioritize them, but I can understand mixing in some Souza for pure win equity in what’s still a semi-low level WMMA fight.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Rodriguez by Decision (Confidence=Low)

UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park (8/2/25)