UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez (8/9/25)
Note: Please read the full analysis, that is much more important than who I pick to win. The confidence relates to my pick to win, not the path to victory. Picks are NOT bets. Matchup breakdowns are written by Brett unless otherwise noted, and all DraftKings analysis is written by Brett. Both Technical Tim and Luke Lampe will also contribute to matchup breakdowns.
MAIN CARD
Roman Dolidze vs. Anthony Hernandez
Fight Odds: Hernandez -301, Dolidze +247
Odds to end ITD: -200
DraftKings Salaries: Hernandez 8.7k, Dolidze 7.5k
Weight Class: 185
As the prophecy was written, Anthony “Fluffy” Hernandez continues his climb toward the middleweight championship, and he’ll get another fun main event opportunity this weekend against contender Roman Dolidze.
Hernandez is a pace grappling machine, and is one of the best in the sport today in that particular style.
I wouldn’t say Hernandez is an elite athlete, nor an elite wrestler, nor is he that great at any avenue of the game in particular. But he can grapple his ass off for as long as is necessary to drown his opponents and get his hand raised.
Through 10 tracked UFC fights, Hernandez is averaging 6.27 takedowns per 15 minutes, topping out at 8, 8, and 10 takedowns landed with that ceiling coming in a recent main event victory over Michel Pereira.
Once on top, Hernandez can take the back and hunt for chokes. He can land ground-and-pound. He really never stops working and it only adds to his ability to drown opponents once those takedowns start landing.
Still, Hernandez is semi one-dimensional in that he needs to grind to win. He’s not a particularly strong range striker, and his distance exchanges are usually just a mess and a war, and simply a means to get on the inside and clinch/grapple where he can excel. Officially, Hernandez is landing 7.1 distance strikes per minute while absorbing 7.2 per minute, but only 27% of his cage time is spent at distance, which is far below the divisional average of 64%.
I view Hernandez as a shaky fighter from the sense that he is not physically dominant, and can lose the fight in multiple areas. He can be outstruck, he can be hurt, he can be taken down and he can be submitted.
However, his style is exhausting to deal with, so you better get him out of there quickly. If not, Hernandez’ pressure and grind is likely to exceed, and once he starts landing takedowns and working his top game, it’s a tough hill to climb for his opponents.
Next Hernandez will be taking on Roman Dolidze, who is coming off a nice main event win over Marvin Vettori in 2025.
Dolidze is pretty well-rounded, and looked improved as a distance striker against Vettori, where I had previously not thought too highly of him.
Dolidze’s game has also felt very shaky to me, and I’ve probably been lower on him than the public in several matchups, which has not always worked out in my favor.
To start with, Dolidze is likely best on the ground as a submission grappler, where is dangerous and pretty physical. He’s used leg locks to destroy knees, and to sweep and earn top position. He’s also very dangerous with his ground-and-pound.
But his wrestling has been mediocre, among other aspects. Dolidze only lands 1.11 takedowns per 15 minutes and he defends at 33 percent, which is awful.
I suppose part of the reason for his lack of defense is that he’s willing to grapple on his back, chase leg locks and guillotines, etc. I just hate that style and I would prefer he defend takedowns naturally.
Historically, Dolidze hasn’t been able to separate on the feet either. He carries knockout power, but he lands 4.3 distance strikes per minute while absorbing 4.6 per minute, with a 49 percent striking defense rate which isn’t great.
Dolidze’s cardio has also been bad at times. He just fought five rounds so I have to give him credit, but I wouldn’t say cardio is a strong suit of Dolidze’s.
All together, I just don’t love the continuity of Dolidze’s game. I think he’s a dangerous grappler who fails to realize enough top game success, and he’s not enough of a separator at distance, where there are also concerns in an extended fight.
This matchup should be fun, as are most Hernandez matchups. And like most Hernandez matchups, my guess is that this goes the way of Hernandez sooner or later.
He’s attempting nearly 14 takedowns per 15 minutes, so while I do believe Dolidze may be able to shrug him off and keep the fight upright initially, I don’t know how long he can sustain that path. Especially with a shit takedown defense rate of 33%, it kind of seems likely Hernandez will get on top of him by late in the first round, if not sooner.
From there, Dolidze is still dangerous. He can hunt for a leg lock. He can threaten for a guillotine. He can sweep. Maybe he can reverse and get top position, and start to pound out Hernandez himself.
But if he can’t make that happen quickly, I just don’t know how he keeps up with Hernandez. Hernandez will tire him out, wear him down, land strikes, and the takedowns will just start to land easier and easier. Eventually, I wouldn’t be shocked if Hernandez found a sub or TKO finish.
Dolidze can also win this fight at distance. I think he’s the more dangerous striker and I’d favor him over Hernandez outright. Again, he needs to defend takedowns or scramble up to get those exchanges, which feels unlikely.
Early on, Dolidze might very well have success. Maybe he hurts Hernandez. Maybe he takes Hernandez down himself. But I think he likely needs a finish or Hernandez will eventually find takedown success of his own, and the fight will go downhill from there.
I wouldn’t be shocked to see Dolidze compete early but the style of Hernandez is just so difficult, so at this point I feel obligated to pick Hernandez to get the job done.
—
On DraftKings, Hernandez will rate out as the top play on the slate overall at 8.7k.
With only 12 fights on the slate, there aren’t as many total options to choose from, especially in the mid-range. Although to be fair, on this slate, nearly all of those 12 favorites are chalk, and could in theory produce big results.
Nobody has the ceiling of Hernandez though, and at 8.7k, he’s an essential lock for me. He scored 192 DraftKings points in his lone five-round win, and we’ve seen him score 135, 120, 117, and 116 in other three-round wins.
The only real downside is if Hernandez wins too easily, or has to defend a bit in round one before getting an early sub in round two. Maybe he only scores near 100 points in that case.
But the most likely outcome is many takedowns, lots of control, lots of strikes, and 115+ in a win. At 8.7k, Hernandez is in a tier of his own this week.
He will also be the most popular fighter on the slate, so this won’t be a sneaky target at all, but I think he’s worth it. His chances of exceeding value and clearing the optimal are so strong in a win over five rounds, whether he wins ITD or not. He’s +130 to win ITD for what it’s worth.
I will probably play Hernandez on every team that doesn’t contain Dolidze, but there’s a good chance he clears 60% public ownership and therefore won’t hold a massive edge in large fields anyway.
Dolidze at 7.5k is very much in consideration.
First of all, we might get a loser on the optimal lineup. There is only one favorite with odds worse than -200 this week, and only a couple with odds worse than -300. Picking and choosing from a pool of big dogs feels rough.
I don’t think Dolidze is a fantastic points play in that he could easily be taken down, held down, and lose. But at least by targeting Dolidze you’re getting leverage against Hernandez, and a very likely optimal score if he pulls off the upset.
Given that situation alone, I think Dolidze is a solid secondary target and it makes sense to roster him. I could even see some stack merit in large fields, but for example, Pereira just landed 24 strikes in a loss to Hernandez in 25 minutes, so this isn’t an ideal fight for both sides to score big.
Dolidze is dangerous enough to beat Hernandez up or finish him from top position on occasion though, and I don’t mind him as a secondary target this week at 7.5k. He ranges from +230 to win ITD to +385, which is alright.
I don’t necessarily consider Dolidze to have an awesome floor though, and if I had to guess, other dogs are more likely to end up optimal in a loss than Dolidze.
The main event status and leverage give Dolidze real viability, but I will ultimately lean moderately toward Hernandez.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Hernandez by TKO, RD 3 (Confidence=Medium)
Steve Erceg vs. Ode Osbourne
Fight Odds: Erceg -555, Osbourne +423
Odds to end ITD: -220
DraftKings Salaries: Erceg 9.1k, Osbourne 7.1k
Weight Class: 135
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Steve Erceg’s a guy who came a bit out of left field, getting signed to the organization back in 2023 where he found himself fighting for a title in less than 12 months. Despite a valiant losing effort to Pantoja in May of last year, he’s now riding a 3-fight skid, dropping his subsequent two fights to divisional elites in Kara France and Moreno – he’s 3-3 in the UFC and 12-4 as a pro. Ode Osbourne’s a Contender Series alum who earned a contract on one of the earlier seasons back in 2019. He hasn’t had the easiest of roads since joining the roster, leading to his underwhelming record, but he has pulled off wins at the right times to remain with the promotion. He’ll be stepping in on short notice to replace Hyun Sung Park who was elevated to the main event last week – he’s 5-6 in the UFC and 13-8 as a pro.
The striking component:
Erceg is a grappler by base but has shown some quality boxing skills so far in the UFC.
Regionally, he traditionally wasn’t the guy that’s going to throw a crazy high volume of strikes necessarily but he did pick and choose his shots well. His output has been better thus far in the UFC, landing 4.4 SLpM at 46% and 5.2 DLpM at 43%.
The issue I have with him is that he tends to stand very upright/rigid and can also fight linearly.
We have seen him hit cleanly in multiple fights but specifically when he fought Haddon in one of his extended fights where he did get more tired, he started to get hit cleaner. We also saw both Costa and Schnell land some big shots on him within the pocket – that’s where his defense is a lot more suspect.
In his defense, he’s shown some pop in his shots despite not being a perennial power threat with only two KOs on the rap sheet – he does seem to be comfortable as a striker despite his grappling base.
I thought him striking competitively with Dvorak in his debut was impressive as Dvorak isn’t an easy guy to look good against – he cracked Dvorak a couple times as well. He definitely faced some adversity in his next outing against Costa where both guys hurt each other, but he did outstrike Costa 74 to 54 and won in the clinch.
He killed Schnell which is what it is because Schnell has no chin, but he also took the best shots of Pantoja and outlanded him to the head 87 to 75.
However, both Dvorak and Costa took rounds in those fights which needs to be noted.
He was looking good against Kara-France, but that upright/linear style finally caught up to him as Kara-France landed a clean switch stance combo which put Erceg down.
Most recently, he fought competitively with Moreno and actually outlanded him on significant strikes 116-89, but the round to round sequencing coupled with his optics not looking the best ultimately put him a step behind Moreno in dropping that decision.
Overall, I like Erceg as an offensive striker as he’s got clean boxing and some cheeky power, but he’s shown defensive vulnerabilities at points and is only stopping shots at 52% and 55% respectively which are below the divisional averages – in fairness, some strength of schedule context needs to be applied in losing to the current champion, a former champion and recent title challenger.
Osbourne is a respectable striker as he’s a long, athletic guy for the weight class that possesses some fast hands and explosive elements.
He likes to kick, fire straight shots and will flurry on opponents that he feels are hurt. In that, he has shown power components with three of his five UFC wins coming via KO/TKO.
In terms of his fights, Kelleher did outland him in the brief time that fight was at space in his debut. He blasted Jerome Rivera who was terrible and was cut pretty quickly. We got some more data on him at space in his fight with Kape though, where I largely thought he had a decent first round before he got blasted with a flying knee.
He was able to be the more effective striker against Vergara but the margins he won that fight by weren’t large – Osbourne also slowed significantly in the 3rd round and Vergara landed on him at an over 50% distance clip. He blasted Adashev in a minute.
The Nam fight was at a tepid pace, Osbourne tried a halfhearted flying knee and proceeded to get ice’d with a right hook from Nam. The Johnson fight was competitive at distance where the argument is there that Johnson was the more effective striker in totality – Johnson came in on short notice and was super sick going into that fight though.
Not much happened in the Almabayev or Filho fights. Most recently, he dropped Rodriguez early but couldn’t finish and is coming off getting the better of the exchanges against Gurule, eventually putting him down off a kick counter straight shot.
Defensively, he will keep his head right on the center line when he’s flurrying and largely just relies on his athleticism.
I also don’t like how he will fight with his hands down as he tends not to get them back up after he throws his combos, which allows him to get hit clean when distance is closed.
The pressure of Vergara and Johnson also gave him some issues and he’s been KO’d in two of his six UFC losses – granted by two guys who hit hard at 125.
Overall, Osbourne has respectable tools offensively but he’s not a consistent volume guy, has a negative significant strike differential of -0.8/minute, has a dodgy chin and only defends distance strikes at 52% despite his length.
How it plays out: Off the top, Erceg will be one of the taller opponents Osbourne’s fought, realizing a 1” height advantage but Osbourne will have a 5” reach advantage. I can’t say I feel overtly comfortable with Erceg on the feet here because of his own defensive flaws, coupled with Osbourne length, speed and power. At the same time, I trust Erceg’s pacing more than I do Osbourne’s, he can match the technicality of Osbourne and is also pretty live to hurt Osbourne himself in my opinion.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Erceg’s a BJJ black belt and an okay wrestler despite his primary jiu-jitsu base.
So I don’t think he’s anything special in pure wrestling sense but what I do like is his timing on shots as he does a good job of reacting to what opponents are doing – he falls more into the “hustler” category in comparison to being some tactician in being able to beat guys to positions.
In that, he can hit a multitude of TDs but really excels from the body lock to either trip or drag his opponents down.
I think one of Erceg’s best attributes as a fighter is his transitional grappling game in the sense that if you give the guy an inch, he can take a mile. He’s going to be very aggressive in terms of working into dominant positions or capitalizing on opportunities opponents give to him.
Given his base, we haven’t seen many guys look to pursue TDs against him but he’s not immune to being taken down as well.
Going back to the Haddon fight though that did extend, he did get more tired in that fight despite winning but his shots became much more sloppy and less processed. Dvorak got some top time on Erceg, but he was mainly fending off subs or sweeps – similar to Costa where Erceg did a good job of working back up and out of positions.
He ultimately got outgrappled by Pantoja, conceding nine TDs on 19 attempts with eight minutes of control to drop the fight. A late mistake ultimately cost him the fight, but he scrambled better than most guys with Pantoja and obviously didn’t get submitted, which is a good feather in his cap.
He largely did well with the TDs of Moreno last time out, stuffing 4/5 shots.
Overall, I like Erceg’s ground game, but he’ll probably run into struggles against more physical/technically stronger positional players.
Osbourne comes from a DIII wrestling background, but ironically we haven’t seen him realize much success with it in his MMA/UFC career, only landing 1,1 TD per 15 minutes at 28%.
Against Vergara, he went 1/7 on TDs and wasn’t able to establish control. He went 3 /10 on Johnson with a little less than three minutes of control to which he also wasn’t able to do much with it. But it was a close fight and those handful of latter TDs did help Osbourne get the nod on the cards.
Despite his background, he’s usually the one that’s actually being taken down.
Osbourne reps a BJJ purple belt which has aided him in securing triangles or armbars from bottom in a handful of scenarios back regionally.
In those instances, all three of those opponents did that to themselves meaning they defended very poorly or put themselves deeper into the submissions which allowed Ode to secure. I can’t take anything away from Ode in that regard, but those regional guys had little grappling chops.
Another scenario was when Kelleher took him down – he passed his guard and guillotined him from cage mount in less than three minutes. We also saw Vergara get on top of Osbourne later in the fight in which he just played guard and lost the round.
Almabayev went 2/5 on TDs where he locked up a deeper Peruvian Necktie towards the end of the 1st and got to Osbourne’s back in the 2nd, finding a RNC shortly after.
He’s been extensively outgrappled in three of his last four fights, getting submitted by Almabayev and Filho, and giving up nine minutes of control to Rodriguez. Despite the final result of the last fight against Gurule, he ultimately lost the 1st round via wrestling on all three scorecards.
In the somewhat defense of Osbourne, he’s fought a handful of quality ground fighters in his run, but his TDD sits at 65% which isn’t great – the more alarming metric though is that he’s losing 84% of control time positions.
Overall, despite Osbourne’s background, the ground has proven to be a clear flaw in his game at the UFC level
How it plays out: This is where I give a pretty decided advantage to Erceg. While referencing that Erceg isn’t “special” as a pure wrestler, I don’t think you need to be to take Osbourne down. Additionally, the levels in jiu-jitsu between these two is pretty massive. It’s honestly to the point where one back take from Erceg could be the fight – if not probably just the round entirely. Osbourne “could” take Erceg down but I think that would be a big mistake for Osbourne to engage in the grappling by his own volition.
Funky booking as you have a guy in Erceg who was just challenging for a title a little over 12 months ago versus Osbourne whose job was literally on the line in his last fight as he would have been cut from the promotion with a loss. So, in a macro sense, this is a levels fight as Osbourne is the quality of opponent Erceg really should beat at a sizable clip. But as noted, Osbourne isn’t drawing dead as he has KO viability in the first half of the fight. If that doesn’t happen though, I don’t see how he wins coupled with that his cardio’s always been bad and he’s now coming in on short notice. If Erceg’s smart, he just pushes grappling early and audits Osbourne on the mat. Erceg via Submission is the official pick.
—
On DraftKings, I do like this fight for finishing equity.
Erceg is priced up to 9.1k but again he’s a massive value, and lined north of -550 to win with a -175 ITD line. Compared to past slates, this feels like a smash spot.
Erceg is coming off three losses in a row though, and in terms of the fight dynamic, there are still bust risks. If Erceg just strikes, we could see an extended fight and one that doesn’t realize a ceiling outcome for him in a decision.
However it does feel like Erceg has grappling equity, submission equity, and knockout equity. It’s a “dangerous” fight but one he should win unless he gets KOd quickly.
Given the price point, Erceg is a pretty easy target. I wouldn’t say he’s an outright priority but he will fit in very nicely considering the savings from the top end, and still has among the best ITD lines on the entire slate.
I assume Erceg will be chalky but I’d consider him a solid upside target this week at an affordable price point.
Osbourne at 7.1k is viable for KO upside.
I’d be pretty surprised if he could string together enough offense to win a decision, and I doubt he really grapples. He just needs to hurt Erceg early, which Erceg recently has a KO loss to Kara-France, so it’s quite possible.
Osbourne is +650 to win ITD which is poor, but that comes along with being a huge underdog. And in that, Osbourne isn’t a phenomenal play as he likely won’t win this fight very often.
When he does win, it’s probably an early KO and a 100 point DK score though, so it’s tough to balance.
I don’t mind some shares of Osbourne. He’s a low-end secondary, boom/bust type play on this particular slate. I’m not excited by him but I understand mixing in some exposure given his ceiling and general variance in striking exchanges.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Erceg by RNC, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium-High)
Iasmin Lucindo vs. Angela Hill
Fight Odds: Lucindo -176, Hill +150
Odds to end ITD: +400
DraftKings Salaries: Lucindo 8.3k, Hill 7.9k
Weight Class: 115
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
Coming off a hard fought win against Ketlen Souza, Angela Hill will look to make it two in a row this weekend against Iasmin Lucindo.
Hill is basically a striker, and she is always live to win striking fights. She lands 5.47 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.92 in return. She defends strikes at a solid 61 percent. I respect Hill on the feet. She fights hard and can always have success in the clinch. She is also just very tough and has good durability. She can mix in kicks, punches, knees, and elbows. She is just so experienced and comfortable as a striker. She also has pretty good cardio in recent years.
Hill doesn’t really land many takedowns but she has faced great competition and has fought a ton of grapplers recently. She only lands 0.81 takedowns per 15 minutes. I have always considered her an underrated grappler and she actually landed two takedowns against Pinheiro and submitted Pinheiro. She also landed five takedowns against Denise Gomes. Most recently, she landed two takedowns against Ketlen Souza. I do think she can sneakily take down low to mid tier fighters of this division.
Hill does defend takedowns at 75 percent which is solid, and I do think she has really improved her TDD over the years. Hill can be controlled for stretches. You saw that against Jandiroba and Dern in her last two losses. Those two are ELITE grapplers though and I have seen Hill scramble up fine vs other fighters. She also scrambled up well against Tabatha Ricci.
I just think Hill is a good competitor. She can strike in volume and is tough as nails. She also has decent takedown defense and is capable of taking down lower tier fighters.
I will say the main concern that I have for Hill is her age. She turned 40 this year. I guess I am just saying that I am a bit worried of an imminent Hill decline and I had more confidence in her a couple of years ago.
Hill will be taking on Iasmin Lucindo who is coming off a loss to Amanda Lemos.
Lucindo is only 23 years old and is now 4-2 in the UFC. I mostly consider Lucindo a generalist. She is a well-rounded fighter offensively.
As a striker, Lucindo has good hands and combination punching. She also has good cardio and doesn’t slow down for 15 minutes. She is pretty quick in general. She lands 2.94 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.53 in return. She has okay output but I would like it to be a bit higher. I don’t think she will outstrike the good strikers in this division as she isn’t super dangerous. However, I consider her an overall decent striker.
Lucindo can also wrestle a bit and that is actually what she has been relying on to win fights. She lands 2.15 takedowns per 15 minutes and has landed 4, 2, 2, 3, and 1 takedowns in her last five fights. She really likes to go to a body lock takedown. I think her takedowns are okay, and she can float on top a bit.
I am pretty concerned about Lucindo’s submission defense and TDD though. She has three submission losses on her record in the regionals but I could not find those fights. To be fair, most of those fights were over four or five years ago when she was 16 to 17 years old lol. So she certainly has improved since then and maybe has leveled up her submission defense. It is hard to know for sure either way.
However, Lucindo’s takedown defense and get-up game looks bad. She defends takedowns at 54 percent now and was taken down three times against Lemos. Once she was taken down by Lemos she could not get up and it was really concerning. She just looked to have no get-up game. Anytime Lucindo was taken down, she never got up and lost the round. That is concerning.
Overall, Lucindo is a solid offensive fighter. She can strike a bit and grapple a bit. However, she isn’t elite anywhere and looks to have defensive wrestling issues.
As far as this matchup goes, this would have been a clear play on Hill for me a couple of years ago. Hill generally always beats these younger newer fighters and has historically been underrated.
The age of Hill is just concerning me a bit though. I think it is possible that Hill will underperform my expectations here just because of her age.
I still will pick Hill to win though. I think Hill probably has a volume advantage here. I honestly think Hill is a better wrestler too and may be able to land some takedowns and consolidate a bit of top position. I am going to go with Hill because I think at her best, she has a little more upside with the volume, experience, and sneaky takedown upside.
Lucindo can probably strike competitively and may be able to land takedowns herself. However, I don’t know if Lucindo will easily hold Hill down. I think Hill has better get-ups than Lucindo so if anyone has top time upside it is Hill in my opinion.
I still have my concerns with Hill as I mentioned though. Lucindo is a decent fighter and it wouldn’t shock me if this was just a razor close competitive decision. However, I don’t really see why Lucindo is -190 either. The line just seems wide and I am not sure Lucindo is skill for skill better at anything than Hill.
—
On DraftKings, this is one of our tightest mid-range fights of the week and one of the most competitively lined matchup on the slate, which says a lot as Lucindo is still sitting near -200 to win.
I mostly agree with Tim’s analysis, and I don’t particularly understand why Lucindo is favored this heavily, for any other reason than a massive age gap which does favor the younger fighter historically.
On paper, this looks very competitive to me. Hill surely has a higher volume ceiling than Lucindo, and I would generally expect striking exchanges to be tight. Lucindo seems likely to land a couple of takedowns, and with them, she could secure rounds. However, Lucindo has worse defensive wrestling than Hill on paper, and it seems equally possible that Hill could mix in a couple of takedowns to secure rounds.
So in total, I’m expecting a pretty fun, medium-paced matchup where both sides have a bit of grappling equity, and striking exchanges should be competitive.
I’m not sure that either project to be optimal in that situation and 8.3k and 7.9k respectively, and that’s the biggest issue. This fight is -500 to go the distance, and Lucindo and Hill are only +400 and +1000 to win ITD respectively.
Lucindo at 8.3k is only a price play for me. Given that there are few options on this slate, I could see how you might need to force more Lucindo in than what feels ideal on paper, simply due to her price point.
And if she can land 3+ takedowns, Lucindo can potentially reach 85-90 points and contend for the optimal lineup. So there is a path.
But in three decisions, Lucindo has only scored 73, 75 and 85 DK points, which is very mediocre. I don’t think I will prioritize her generally because of this.
Overall, Lucindo rates out OK at 8.3k given she’s near -200 to win and does carry some wrestling equity. But there are still real ceiling concerns in this matchup and I probably won’t end up with much exposure to her unless I’m forced to due to salary.
Hill is in a similar boat at 7.9k.
I definitely think Hill can win the fight, but she’s +150 to win and is only 7.9k, so she doesn’t even save much salary. If she wins, I really don’t know if she’d end up optimal regardless because you’ll still need to save salary elsewhere.
Hill at least has a higher floor/ceiling than Lucindo based on pacing. In recent decision wins, Hill has scored 86, 109, 104, 71 and 77. She may even have more wrestling “domination” equity here if Lucindo truly struggles to get back up.
Again, this feels like a price play more than anything. It’s tough to prioritize Hill as she’s arguably overpriced, with almost no finishing equity. Her ceiling isn’t guaranteed.
But she’s one dog who can win, and perhaps that’s value in itself. I think there are spots where you could play Hill over Lucindo straight up to be unique,
I don’t mind Hill overall and I wouldn’t be surprised if she won and scored in the mid-80s, but I just wish she was cheaper, and her cost will probably limit my exposure to her overall.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Hill by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Andre Fili vs. Christian Rodriguez
Fight Odds: Rodriguez -246, Fili +205
Odds to end ITD: +155
DraftKings Salaries: Rodriguez 8.4k, Fili 7.8k
Weight Class: 145
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have an interesting matchup here between tough as nails veteran Christian Rodriguez and the well respected veteran Andre Fili.
I just consider Rodriguez a well-rounded scrapper who is capable of neutralizing opponents in all areas. He is a pretty decent striker. He lands 3.63 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.66 in return and defends strikes at 54 percent. I think his striking is totally fine. He has decent boxing and can mix in some kicks as well. He also defends his head well statistically. I think he thrives best on the inside in close range. He is also very tough too and seems durable.
Rodriguez is also a capable grappler and resister. He lands 1.84 takedowns per 15 minutes and defends takedowns at 69 percent. Rodriguez isn’t perfect as a defensive grappler. He can be taken down here and there. However, he does defend takedowns decently and is super seasoned at reversing positions on the mat, and making his opponents consistently work. He is honestly just super difficult to keep on the mat. His get ups and reversals are borderline elite and he has consistently demonstrated this skill against very accomplished wrestlers.
Rodriguez also just has good cardio and even won round 3 vs Pearce. Rodriguez is just good enough offensively and defensively to tire opponents out and overwhelm them. In his most recent fight against Melquizael Costa which he lost, he also won round 3. That was a really close fight but also just showed that Rodriguez has good cardio.
Rodriguez was recently submitted with a guillotine by Julian Erosa but I do think it was a bit random and Erosa is super dangerous with his front chokes, so I don’t think it was that concerning.
My main concern with Rodriguez is where his offense comes from when he is facing a guy who won’t grapple himself to exhaustion. We did see that a bit in the Costa fight. It was finally a matchup where someone wasn’t trying to psychotically land takedowns on Rodriguez. Rodriguez did land 6 takedowns and landed 64 significant strikes. That isn’t bad collective offense but I do think he thrives more as a neutralizer in the UFC than a guy who puts up offense.
Rodriguez will be taking on Andre Fili who is also coincidentally coming off a loss to Melquizael Costa.
I have never minded Fili. Fili is a decent striker. He lands 3.84 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.15 in return. He defends strikes at 51 percent. Those aren’t the best striking numbers but Fili has fought good competition. Fili is a sharp counter striker, capable of landing knockouts with precise shots. He has good straight punches that complement his long frame and can also mix in some decent kicks.
I also consider Fili a competent grappler. He actually lands 2.17 takedowns per 15 minutes and I consider him an underrated offensive wrestler. He has a really good double leg. I don’t consider Fili’s top game all that great. However, he can hold position against weak grapplers.
Defensively, Fili is decent as a wrestler. He defends takedowns at 70 percent and is a capable scrambler once taken down. Good wrestlers like Bryce Mitchell can have success against Fili. However, I think average or below-average grapplers will generally be neutralized by Fili.
My main concern with Fili is his chin / age. He has been knocked out in two of his last three losses including a first round knockout in his most recent loss against Dan Ige. However, to be fair to him, he has only been knocked out twice in the last ten years which spans 17 fights which honestly kind of surprised me. He was also recently submitted by Costa though and kind of looked lost on the feet. I just think Fili is probably past his prime a little bit although I don’t think he is completely washed.
As far as this matchup goes, I do favor Rodriguez a bit. The big advantage Rodriguez has is durability. Rodriguez is very durable and Fili has been getting knocked out and hurt a lot lately. Perhaps Fili’s poor chin won’t come into play here as Rodriguez hasn’t even landed a knockdown in the UFC. However, Rodriguez has stung many guys and I still think Rodriguez is more likely to hurt Fili than vice versa. The striking other than that is probably somewhat competitive though.
I think the area Rodriguez might sneakily have an advantage is the wrestling. Rodriguez is so hard to take and hold down and I don’t think Fili can really consolidate any top position against Rodriguez, even if Fili landed a takedown or two.
Rodriguez on the other hand actually has been landing takedowns. He landed 6 against Costa and 2 against Bashi. He also landed 3 against Saaiman. Usually Rodriguez is the one defending takedowns so he hasn’t had many opportunities to even go for takedowns in many matchups. However, Costa and Saaiman are really the only two non-wrestlers he has faced, and he landed 3 and 6 takedowns. I actually think Rodriguez can take Fili down and maybe have some mild to moderate success.
So overall, I think Rodriguez is the side. Perhaps Fili can win a competitive striking decision. However, that is a narrow path to victory and a fight that Rodriguez can win too. I think Rodriguez has more additional paths to victory like wrestling and winning by finish more often. So Rodriguez is the pick.
—
On DraftKings, I guess I like Rodriguez a little more than I expected to at 8.4k.
He’s priced very cheaply and has plenty of win equity for this price. More importantly, he has sneaky wrestling equity and finishing equity.
I don’t feel great about either, and if he simply wins a striking based decision, with a couple of takedowns mixed in, he’ll likely bust. But 4-6 takedowns aren’t completely out of reach, nor is Rodriguez hurting Fili.
And the combination of those things just make Rodriguez an acceptable target. He is only +195 to win ITD so it’s tough to really bet on the finish, but I can see Rodriguez exceeding value and competing with the optimal due to pricing.
Having near-field exposure makes sense.
Fili at 7.8k is tougher to call because I do think he can win the fight.
Rodriguez isn’t really guaranteed wrestling success and it’s quite possible Fili is just the better round winning striker. At the same time, I’m still not sure if he carries upside and at 7.8k, he doesn’t save enough salary to be the only dog in your lineup.
By default, on a slate with little dog win equity, having a fighter who is in the matchup from a math perspective makes sense. I consider Fili a fine secondary target and a striking based decision with a takedown mixed in seems quite possible.
But I can’t say I will choose to prioritize him, with capped wrestling equity, and a +650 ITD line.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Rodriguez by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Miles Johns vs. Jean Matsumoto
Fight Odds: Matsumoto -304, Johns +250
Odds to end ITD: +195
DraftKings Salaries: Matsumoto 8.5k, Johns 7.7k
Weight Class: 135
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a decent bantamweight matchup here between Jean Matsumoto and Miles Johns.
Matsumoto is kind of a freestyle fighter, but I think he is best as a striker. He lands 5.18 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 5.40 in return. He is somewhat technical and powerful as a striker. He can put together some crisp boxing combinations, has a little power, and has some good low kicks. He also has decent volume and is aggressive with good cardio. He also seems very tough and hits pretty hard. He is a fun fighter to watch.
I still think Matsumoto is a bit hittable for my liking, but I do think he can outstrike the low to mid tier fighters in this division no problem. He just takes a decent amount of shots and even Katona busted him up. He did lose to Rob Font recently but it was a very competitive matchup.
Matsumoto can also occasionally land takedowns and he has a dangerous guillotine choke. He lands 2.73 takedowns per 15 minutes but I don’t think his top control is great.
I question the defensive wrestling of Matsumoto to a degree. I have seen this guy taken down a lot against somewhat weak wrestlers, and Argueta had a lot of success as well. His takedown defense isn’t terrible though and occasionally he can put together a decent sprawl or threaten with a guillotine. His TDD isn’t good though either at 57 percent, and I have seen him controlled for stretches in fights.
He at least works up and is physical though and is always resisting, which can cause opponents to tire. Good grapplers can probably take advantage of him but average grapplers will probably struggle and I do think his defensive wrestling looked improved vs Katona.
I like Matsumoto though. I have come around on him. He is a tough guy with some good volume, low kicks, cardio, and toughness. He is also pretty dangerous and fights very hard.
Matsumoto will be taking on Miles Johns. Johns is a decent fighter. He is a serviceable striker. He lands 3.16 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.65 in return. He defends strikes at a good 67 percent. He generally just does a good job staying out of danger. He also has a bit of pop and has won by knockout a couple of times in the UFC.
I am still not completely sold on Johns as a striker though. He hasn’t really outstruck any good strikers. He also has a hard time when opponents pressure him or push a pace as he either gasses or just gets overwhelmed, and ends up losing. He almost seems to have to fight at his own striking pace to win.
Johns is a decent wrestler and comes from a wrestling background. However, he is only landing 0.92 takedowns per 15 minutes, and attempting about three takedowns per fight. So you can’t really rely on his wrestling all that much.
Johns is still a solid wrestler though and defends takedowns at 81 percent.
As far as this matchup goes, I have to pick Matsumoto because he fights at a higher pace and is more durable than Johns. Johns may be a bit better defensively but I expect Matsumoto to go after Johns, and those are the fighters that Johns generally struggles with. Johns has only landed more than 50 significant strikes one time in 11 UFC fights. I just think Johns will probably get gas pedaled at some point and succumb to the volume and pressure of Matsumoto.
I also don’t trust Johns to land takedowns or control Matsumoto either. So if Johns doesn’t land a random knockout, I just don’t see where his offense comes from as he never puts up a lot of strikes or takedowns.
I just trust Matsumoto’s striking consistency, cardio, and toughness more than Johns. I expect Matsumoto to just march Johns down. There will probably be competitive moments but eventually I think it is likely that Matsumoto pulls away.
—
On DraftKings, I don’t mind Matsumoto, but I’m not sold on his upside in this matchup.
I honestly like Matsumoto to win this fight at a pretty high rate. There’s some mild concerns on Johns taking him down, but I’m skeptical Johns can hold him down for long periods of time. And on the feet, Matsumoto is better and higher paced.
From a fantasy standpoint, the biggest issue is that Matsumoto may not want to wrestle. He just landed seven takedowns and scored 84 points in a loss, but Johns is a decent wrestler himself and defending at 81 percent. If Matsumoto only lands 0-2 takedowns, his upside is more limited.
That would also put him into a bucket of essentially needing a knockout to clear the optimal lineup, even at 8.5k. Matsumoto is +240 to win ITD which is OK, and Johns has been knocked down a couple of times.
Matsumoto is obviously priced well at 8.5k which puts him into salary relief territory. He’s fairly safe in my opinion, and I wouldn’t be surprised if I end up with secondary exposure because of it.
However, I just don’t love the matchup from a ceiling standpoint. Johns is defensively sound and slower paced. I can see Matsumoto getting the KO but I don’t really want to bet on it, especially early in the fight. So I won’t prioritize Matsumoto personally and will likely only be rostering him when I need some additional salary relief.
Johns at 7.7k is viable.
Despite me thinking Matsumoto wins fairly often, Johns is actually a credible UFC level talent and he has some wrestling in his game. It’s enough to at least give him some decision equity, and on a slate where we might see zero dog wins, that has viability.
Additionally, on a slate where we might see zero dog wins, floor becomes more important. And I suppose Johns has one of the better chances to score points in a decision.
At 7.7k, I think there’s secondary merit for Johns. He’s still a little bit more expensive than I’d like to pay, and I still have ceiling concerns with a +725 ITD line.
Johns is kind of meh, overall. I wouldn’t be surprised if he lands 2-3 takedowns and makes a round or two competitive, but I am not excited about his win chances in general and I’d still probably rather pay down if forced to choose.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Matsumoto by Decision (Confidence=Medium)
Eryk Anders vs. Christian Leroy Duncan
Fight Odds: Duncan -534, Anders +410
Odds to end ITD: +130
DraftKings Salaries: Duncan 9.2k, Anders 7k
Weight Class: 185
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a super random middleweight matchup here as Christian Leroy Duncan will be taking on Eryk Anders.
Duncan is a British fighter who is 11-2 professionally with his first 7 fights taking place in Cage Warriors, a decent regional promotion.
Duncan is a striker who is dangerous at range. He doesn’t look to grapple much. He switches stances and mixes in a lot of kicks. He controls range pretty well and has knockout power. He is a bit hittable, and I do think as he gets steps up in competition, his striking will probably be exposed. However, I do think he can win fights on the feet at this level and he is certainly dangerous. He is now 4-2 in the UFC and is landing 4.75 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.01. Most of his wins have come vs extremely poor competition though.
Duncan also has decent first layer TDD. It isn’t perfect, and he did get taken down and controlled a bit vs Gregory Rodrigues. I have seen him held down here and there in other matchups too. Even Petrosyan took him down. However, he is tough to actually ground and keep grounded. I think he can mitigate the grappling of plenty of guys and is currently defending takedowns at 72 percent. Above average grapplers can have success against him though and he does get clinched up a bit.
Overall Duncan is a fun action fighter who will have some fun striking battles in this division and he is certainly a knockout threat. He mixes in some flashy strikes, and has a lot of power and will be a good guy to have on fight night cards.
Duncan will be taking on UFC veteran Eryk Anders. Anders is kind of a freestyle fighter who will strike a bit and occasionally look to land takedowns. Anders doesn’t always land a ton of offense which is why I am not high on him in general, but he is decent and is a physically strong dude.
Anders lands 3.54 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.05 in return. He defends strikes at 50 percent. Those are pretty bad metrics and I don’t consider Anders a very good striker. He is basically limited to his left hand. He is a tough and physical guy though so he can stay competitive in fights. He also has some power in his left hand and can hurt opponents. So he can kind of keep fights competitive on the feet and is a bit of a power threat. However, he isn’t a guy who is going to win clean rounds either. He has also been knocked down in his last three fights against somewhat poor competition, so his chin is a bit of a concern.
Anders lands 1.71 takedowns per 15 minutes and attempts about 6 takedowns per fight. I don’t consider him to be a great offensive wrestler but he is capable. I actually think he has a decent top game as he can use his physicality to stifle submissions and land ground and pound.
Anders is actually a decent defensive wrestler. He defends takedowns at a solid 80 percent and is generally hard to hold down on the mat.
As far as this matchup goes, I think I favor the youth, athleticism, and evasive striking game of Duncan who is 8 years younger than Anders.
On the feet, I think Duncan is the better round winning striker. He can probably skate around Anders and just outland him, and he will probably be the minute winner here. There is also a good chance Duncan hurts Anders too as Anders has been getting hurt a lot lately. Anders will honestly probably survive though and he is sneaky tough and has only been finished by TKO once in his career. Striking is high-variance though and I do think Anders could hurt Duncan. I wouldn’t count on it though.
Perhaps Anders could clinch Duncan up or land a takedown and have success. I honestly wouldn’t be that surprised if either thing happens. I do think this line is a bit wide and Anders has ways to stay competitive. Overall though, I don’t trust Anders’ wrestling enough to keep Duncan grounded. So Duncan will probably get enough striking time here where I do consider him superior. So Duncan is the pick.
—
On DraftKings, Duncan rates out as a reasonable contrarian option at 9.2k.
I really don’t expect him to be popular with the ownership flowing onto Walker and Smith above, and Hernandez, Medic and Erceg below. Plus, Duncan is completely boom or bust, who will need an early KO to contend for the optimal, and he’s just coming off a boring decision in which he showed no urgency against a worse opponent in Pulyaev.
Duncan is hard to prioritize for this reason, and ultimately, I won’t play a lot of him.
But with the drop in ownership, I can see the argument for using Duncan to be contrarian. He’s still +145 to win ITD against an opponent who’s been knocked down three times in a row.. so an early KO could come to fruition.
The lower the public ownership, the more I’m willing to take chances on Duncan winning by KO, but he’s a boom/bust option regardless.
Anders at 7k is probably the safest punt play of the slate.
You’re getting a fighter -160 to fight for three rounds, who can also land the occasional takedown. So if punt loser dog ends up optimal, I think Anders is among the top choices. He is also experienced and could fight competitively.
I also don’t think it’s a good matchup for him to accrue points, nor am I picking him to win. He could get hurt early. So it’s still a very meh play, and he has the worst ITD line of the group at +900.
Anders gets an uptick for floor at 7k but he’s a low-end target regardless.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Duncan by Decision (Confidence=Medium)
Julius Walker vs. Rafael Cerqueira
Fight Odds: Walker -650, Cerqueira +475
Odds to end ITD: -1000
DraftKings Salaries: Walker 9.4k, Cerquiera 6.8k
Weight Class: 205
We have a low-level light heavyweight scrap between Julius Walker and Rafael Cerquieira, who are both looking for their first UFC win.
Walker is 6-1 professionally at age 26, and he’s earned four wins by TKO and two by submission. He’s coming off the first pro loss of his career, which was a competitive decision against Alonzo Menifield, in his UFC debut on short notice.
In that sense, it’s not a loss that reflects super poorly on Walker. He fought hard and managed to land 86 significant strikes, but Menifield was a bit more effective at distance. Walker still clinched and held onto Menifield for 5+ minutes, but only was able to land 1/9 takedowns and couldn’t accrue enough top time to swing rounds.
I still think it’s difficult to tell how good Walker is, and I’m pretty uncomfortable with him being a heavy favorite in this spot.
Walker doesn’t have any deep MMA background and was a D2 basketball player at Drury, so although his athletic base is there, it’s not an ideal one for Mixed Martial Arts.
His regional competition has been pretty bad, and he even has three amateur losses in 2021, which all came by decision. In his latter regional career, he did beat a couple of decent names in Bevon Lewis and Nyle Bartling, but Lewis has imploded since leaving the UFC and the Bartling win was a mid-round guard sub in a fight that Bartling was winning.
The good news is that Walker is pretty active, and tries pretty hard. He is willing to attempt a lot of takedowns, and he’s pretty long for the division standing 6’4” with a 78-inch reach. His submission grappling skills are OK, and when he gets top position, he’ll definitely carry some finishing upside.
It’s just difficult to project Walker as a fighter who can land takedowns consistently at this level. He already failed in that aspect in his debut and on the regional scene, he’d get taken down without too much difficulty.
On the feet, Walker doesn’t have a massive sample of distance exchanges. He landed some flurries against Menifield but was still outlanded at distance 78-51, and he’s defending strikes in total at 40 percent. He does seem tough and tenacious but I worry about him getting hurt in the long run.
Overall, Walker rates out as the type to win ITD against lower level fighters, based on grappling and pace. But he’s not a phenomenal athlete, nor is he super skilled in any one area of the game, so he seems pretty defensively vulnerable to me.
Rafael Cerqueira has had an atrocious start to his UFC career, and has suffered first-round knockout losses to both Ibo Aslan and Modestas Bukauskas.
That now makes him 11-2 professionally at age 35, and he’s earned eight wins by knockout and two by submission.
Unfortunately, we were already desperate for fight footage from Cerqueira, of which there is almost none available from his regional scene, and a sub-one minute KO loss in his UFC debut certainly isn’t going to help the matter.
I thought we saw some better flashes from him against Bukauskas, but ultimately that fight ended in two minutes with Cerqueira getting blasted on and knocked unconscious.
At this point, it seems very likely that Cerqueira will continue to get dusted, and that’s clearly how the market perceives his chances. I’m still not ready to write him off completely.
He had been fighting weak competition on the Brazilian regional scene, but from what I can tell, Cerqueira is a capable offensive striker, who has a background in BJJ.
In his brief highlights, his kicks look pretty sharp, and he can attack the body and head. He will spin, throw some flying stuff, and he’s had success doing both.
There are a couple seconds of footage of him on the mat, including one where he’s locking up an arm-triangle and one where he’s holding onto a back ride. I haven’t really seen him shoot takedowns though and in the only full fight we have, he did not wrestle.
In his UFC debut, Aslan, who’s an aggressive early finisher, just bombed on Cerqueira immediately, while Cerqueira was stuck against the cage. He was definitely rocked for a second, but he was covering up well enough and he wasn’t knocked down. Aslan just threw a 35-punch combination of which 28 strikes landed while Cerqueira was covering up, and the ref was forced to step in.
Was it a great look? Clearly not. Is it meaningful in the sense that all of his fights will end in that fashion? I’m not sure.
Against Bukauskas, Cerquiera actually landed some clean strikes, and I thought had a real chance to hurt Bukauskas. Unfortunately, his defense didn’t hold up and Bukauskas cracked him as well, and followed up with big shots against the cage to put Cerqueira’s lights out.
And outside of the above information, we have almost nothing to work with, so we’re still forced to make many educated guesses.
For now, Cerqueira will just fall into a typical bucket of a fighter who I’d expect to have early success as his primary method of winning.
At age 35, I highly doubt he’s going to climb the rankings of the division. I’ve seen him face literally no adversity outside of these recent losses. Only one of his fights has gone the distance so I’m skeptical of his cardio as well.
He doesn’t seem like the most aggressive type though, so I’d actually guess maybe his cardio is OK. I really don’t know how impactful his striking will be at this level over the duration but kicking at range is a decent base. His ground game could be legit and he has a BJJ black belt, but I’m really unsure about his offensive or defensive wrestling.
It’s probably safe to assume that Cerqueira won’t hold up to any damage, and that this will be the last time we see him in the Octagon. We’re still working with super small samples though.
My primary concern in this matchup is that I think Cerqueira is clearly the more dangerous striker of the two. Walker may win on pure toughness and durability, but in a pure striking fight, I think Cerqueira is better.
Walker is probably the better wrestler of the two, but I’d also guess that on paper, Cerqueira is the better pure submission grappler. So it’s just tough to feel great about Walker as a -700 favorite.
Especially considering Walker has never won a decision himself, and has lost basically every time the fight has seen the cards, including as a pro and as an amateur. This feels like a decent spot for Cerqueira to showcase more skills, as Walker doesn’t profile to KO him immediately.
At the same time, I think it’s fair to assume Cerqueira will just wilt if he doesn’t get a quick finish. Maybe Walker can murder him too. And I’d guess Walker can take him down, and probably find a finish there as well. So I do understand favoring Walker in general.
My best guess is that Cerqueira will have some decent moments early, but once Walker gets in close, Walker will roll through him. An early-mid round finish seems the most realistic.
Skill for skill though, Walker really isn’t that great and I think Cerqueira is dangerous enough to land some strikes. Grappling is a bit of an unknown for him. There’s enough variance in a matchup like this where Cerqueira could easily show himself as the value side, but given what we have to work with, it’s impossible not to pick Walker.
—
On DraftKings, Walker is the most expensive fighter on the board at 9.4k, and he’ll clearly be in play.
I wouldn’t be all that surprised if Walker outright lost, but odds indicate the chances of that aren’t super high, and if he does win, it’s probably an early finish that could also come with grappling. So I have to like the ceiling.
Walker is -600 to win ITD which is an elite line and the best on the slate as well. That will draw a lot of attention.
It may be tough to pay up to Walker with the lack of dogs, but at the same time, I think a lot of folks will look for a cheap dog since even the most expensive dogs don’t rate out well. And Walker feels like a bit of a standout within the top tier from a finishing perspective.
As much as I have concerns, I’ll probably be high on Walker this week. His ITD metrics are too strong, and he can score well with pace wrestling. There is simply a lot of variance to the matchup and I don’t think he’s a for sure lock, but if Walker wins, it seems likely he will surpass 100 points and contend for the optimal lineup.
Cerqueira at 6.8k is viable in my opinion, and I probably like him more than the field will.
Obviously he’s cheap, and should carry major leverage against Walker. He’s also very likely to win ITD early if he wins at all. Plus, Walker really isn’t that great and kind of profiles longer term as a guy who may get finished in losses.
Cerqueira rates out horribly with a +700 ITD line, and I don’t think it’s smart to load up on him. He’s only a dart throw really. But one that I do think has some sneaky merit, given the upside and variance within this kind of matchup.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Walker by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium)
Elijah Smith vs. Toshiomi Kazama
Fight Odds: Smith -717, Kazama +522
Odds to end ITD: -400
DraftKings Salaries: Smith 9.3k, Kazama 6.9k
Weight Class: 135
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
Elijah Smith will be looking for his second UFC win on Saturday as he takes on Toshiomi Kazama.
Smith is an American fighter who is 8-1 professionally and 22 years old. He won a decision on the Contender Series where he struck competitively with his opponent and both fighters landed about 75 significant strikes. However, Smith mixed in five additional takedowns and was awarded the decision win. He really slowed down in that fight though.
Smith then fought Vince Morales in his UFC debut. Both guys landed 40 significant strikes. Smith landed three takedowns while Morales landed two. It was a competitive fight and Smith was given the win. Smith showed decent takedown defense in that fight but he was still taken down and put in some tough front choke positions.
Smith comes from a wrestling background and is a decent athlete. He is an okay wrestler, and has some decent shots and is explosive. I still don’t consider him a great wrestler though and he will be limited to defeating weak grapplers at bantamweight. He does look to wrestle in fights in general.
Smith can also strike a bit. He can semi control range and mix in straight punches and kicks, and he has some speed. He also has a little bit of power as well. He still isn’t a good striker either though and he is very green. I also question his volume. He also really tired out in that Contender Series fight and I question his cardio.
Smith will be taking on Japanese fighter Toshiomi Kazama. Kazama made his UFC debut on the Road to the UFC final against Rinya Nakamura. Kazama was knocked out in round one but there is no shame in that as Nakamura is a great athlete and a powerhouse. Kazama then lost by first round KO to Garrett Armfield. He most recently won by submission against Charlampos Grigoriou, which was one year ago.
Kazama is 11-4 professionally and is basically a grappler. Most of his wins come on the mat and generally by submission. I consider him a decent grappler. He has okay takedowns, and I do like his tenacity. He is constantly looking to grapple and gives his opponents no space to operate. Kazama can also grapple hard for 15 minutes and is submission capable on the mat. I like his cardio.
My issue with Kazama’s grappling is that I don’t actually think his takedowns are that good. He can also be taken down himself and controlled. However, he does at least try to attack off his back and sweep. Kazama still is tenacious though and I do like his cardio.
Kazama rarely strikes, and he doesn’t look too comfortable there. He was knocked out in his last three losses. I haven’t seen Kazama strike often but it probably isn’t good as he looks scared to strike and only looks to close distance and try to grapple. My guess is that he is a liability on the feet and it certainly looks that way.
As far as this matchup goes, I understand why Smith is a big favorite. Smith is definitely the better striker here and honestly has a good chance of knocking Kazama out early. When they are fresh and standing, Smith is the better striker. I also think when these guys are fresh that Smith is a better wrestler. So Smith should have a lot of success early and he may get it done inside the first round.
I still think this line might be wide though. I do think Kazama has some advantages. Kazama clearly has better cardio and I could really see Kazama having success later in this fight. Kazama will surely have issues early but if he just survives then he can probably tire Smith out by being tenacious.
If Kazama gets on a tired Smith, I actually think Kazama is a better submission grappler and could maybe finish Smith. So I do think Kazama has a shot here.
The issue is that Kazama very well may get knocked out early and he will probably get beat up early regardless of who wins the fight. I will pick Smith here, but I still believe the line is wide.
—
On DraftKings, Smith is priced up to 9.3k and will likely need an early finish.
This is a tough one because I’m not that high on Smith, and I wasn’t surprised that he nearly lost his UFC debut to Morales. I don’t particularly want to invest in him.
However, Kazama is pretty shaky himself, and it definitely seems plausible he gets knocked out early, or outwrestled. Either form of win could give Smith a strong score.
I still am not sure I want to buy into Smith here. Largely, there’s a conversation to be had as to whether Walker is a superior target directly above him. And then you have heavy favorites in the lower 9ks and upper 8ks who are arguably superior for price.
Smith is -290 to win ITD though, so his finishing metrics are very strong. Pair that with grappling equity and a weak opponent, and Smith is going to rate out well. If you have the ability to pay up, he should be in consideration and he makes for a solid pivot off Walker.
I just don’t love his fighter profile personally, and probably won’t aim to be high on Smith at 9.3k. He’s not enough of a powerhouse striker for me to be sure he wins by quick KO, and even as a wrestler, he can get tired and taken down himself, so it still feels like there are plenty of ways for this to go wrong.
If the public is off Smith and he ends up semi-contrarian, he’ll be an extra solid target, but I lean against making Smith a real priority.
Kazama is a fine punt at 6.9k.
He’s at least digestible in the sense that he’s coming off a submission win, which scored 102 DK points, and Smith was just put in some bad spots on the mat by Morales. So I do see a path for Kazama.
He’s also a big dog, and only +650 to win ITD in this matchup so it’s tough to be too excited.
I really don’t mind taking deep shots this week given the slate dynamic and Kazama at least carries some grappling upside against an opponent who I question long term. I don’t see a ton of process in his game though and wouldn’t consider him to carry much of a floor.
So Kazama is still ultimately a dart throw. I won’t be too invested in him personally but I don’t mind taking the occasional punt for salary relief.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Smith by Decision (Confidence=Medium)
Joselyne Edwards vs. Priscila Cachoeira
Fight Odds: Edwards -385, Cachoeira +309
Odds to end ITD: Over 2.5 Rounds -180
DraftKings Salaries: Edwards 8.6k, Cachoeira 7.6k
Weight Class: 135
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a fun matchup here between Joselyne Edwards and Priscila Cachoeira.
Edwards is an okay range striker. She lands 4.62 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.20 in return. She has had some decent volume performances. She landed 88 significant strikes against Wu Yanan, 164 significant strikes against Ramona Pascual, and 101 against Kim.
Edwards likes to utilize kicks to the body to score points, and clear distance and manage range. Managing range is probably what she does best. I don’t trust her as much in boxing range. She does have a little pop too and can hurt opponents.
Edwards has had defensive wrestling issues in the UFC. She isn’t completely awful as a defensive wrestler and defends takedowns at 61 percent. However, she is just very green off her back and is a candidate to continue to be controlled on the mat.
Edwards is actually not bad if she gets top position though. She can get hooks in and threaten on top and land GNP. She lands 1.31 takedowns per 15 minutes. She landed five takedowns against Nora Cornolle and four against Tamires Vidal. She can outwrestle weak competition.
Edwards will be taking on Priscila Cachoeira who is coming off of a first round knockout against Josiane Nunes.
Cachoeira is a hilarious fighter. She is basically a striker with zero defense whatsoever. Her entire goal is to march her opponent down, take a shot (or seven) to land one of her own with the hope of hurting her opponent or just exhausting / overwhelming them with her pressure.
Cachoeira lands 4.03 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 7.15 in return. She defends strikes at 43 percent lol. She does have power though and has won by first round knockout in her last two victories against Ariane da Silva and Josiane Nunes. She is kind of underrated physically, and below-average fighters seem to have issues with her size and power at times.
Cachoeira defends takedowns at 65 percent and has only landed one takedown in the UFC. So she is really just interested in fighting on the feet.
Cahoeira’s main weakness is her defensive grappling. She has lost on the mat in her last three losses against Jasmine Jasudavicius, Miranda Maverick, and Gillian Robertson. Those are great grapplers though and I do think Cachoeira has decent first layer takedown defense. Decent grapplers can obviously have success against Cachoeira. However, it isn’t like she is getting beat on the mat by anyone terrible either.
As far as this matchup goes, I do think Edwards is a more technical fighter and striker. Edwards is also a better grappler and could probably land takedowns and have success in top position. I think picking Edwards for those reasons is fine. There is a good chance Edwards just keeps it technical standing, mixes in takedowns, etc. Edwards also has sneaky finishing upside here, just because Cachoeira is a liability defensively. It wouldn’t shock me if Edwards won by knockout or finished Cachoeira on the mat.
I still am a little nervous for Edwards though. I don’t think Edwards is actually a good grappler and is nowhere near the level of the girls who have been beating Cachoeira on the mat.
There is a realistic chance that Edwards doesn’t easily land takedowns and gets stuck striking with Cachoeira who is very dangerous and aggressive. I think it is fair to favor Edwards on the feet due to technicality, but I also think it is fair to favor Cachoeira standing based on physicality, aggression, and power. The striking is honestly probably close. So I could see this getting interesting. I think this could be a super violent fight as well, as Cachoeira always brings it.
—
On DraftKings, I’m primarily interested in Edwards at 8.6k.
She’s lined north of -350 to win with lots of grappling equity (potentially), and she’s only priced at 8.6k so she will rate out as a massive value.
I do think there are many bust cases though. Basically, Edwards needs to grapple. In a pure striking fight, she may land a ton of shots but 120 sig. strikes in a decision is only 78 DK points.
Edwards is coming off two ground based finishes in a row that scored 120 and 109 DK points, which gives me a lot of hope, especially as it’s obvious where Cachoeira is weak. I don’t fully trust Edwards to smash on the ground, but she likely will try, and that’s enough at this price in this kind of matchup. Edwards is also +160 to win ITD which is decent for this price.
Edwards will probably be chalky given the situation and her price point, but I’m OK with targeting her moderately. There are plenty of fighters priced above her who I like or who could be prioritized, but Edwards fits into most constructions very nicely and I think by default, she’s worth a solid investment.
Cachoeira at 7.6k is viable but I don’t love her.
I do think the most likely outcome is that she gets outgrappled and loses cleanly. And in her last three losses, Cachoeira has not topped 10 DK points.
However, if she can defend takedowns or scramble up, suddenly, Cachoeira is very live. She can land a lot of strikes and she may even have knockout upside. She’s only +600 to win ITD but we’ve seen her win by KO on enough occasions now to make me think she can hurt anyone in this division if she lands the right shot.
Cachoeira really isn’t my favorite type of target. Her floor is weak, she probably loses, and she’s a huge dog.
There is some chance that she simply defends takedowns though, in which case, this becomes a much more winnable, and high-action fight. I think having low-end secondary exposure to Cachoeira for that circumstance makes sense.
But I’ll still end up relatively light on Cachoeira on the whole, given her profile.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Edwards by RNC, RD 3 (Confidence=Medium)
Uros Medic vs. Gilbert Urbina
Fight Odds: Medic -428, Urbina +339
Odds to end ITD: -800
DraftKings Salaries: Medic 8.9k, Urbina 7.3k
Weight Class: 170
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Uros Medic is a Contender Series alum from the 2020 season who came into the promotion with a healthy amount of hype. While still only being 32, he hasn’t really lived up to original expectation and has also been plagued with injuries – he’s 4-3 in the UFC and 10-3 as a pro. Gilbert Urbina was on the TUF 29 season where he got bounced out in the semifinals by Tresean Gore, but Gore got hurt so he filled in to fight in the finals where he lost to Bryan Battle. Similar to his matchup counterpart, he’s gotten bit by the injury bug so he hasn’t been very active since joining the roster – he’s 1-2 in the UFC and 7-3 as a pro.
The striking component:
Medic stands southpaw and comes from a kickboxing background where he’s shown aggressive/explosive components in both his punches and kicks.
He bounces in and out of the pocket well but can be over-aggressive and slightly off balanced at times. But his accuracy is on point with his best weapons being his lead hook, straight left and body kicks.
In general, the majority of his fights have ended in the first round so there isn’t a ton of footage available of him in extended striking exchanges. He fought on Contenders and in his debut where he KO’d two grapplers which was kind of meaningless.
But when he fought an actual UFC caliber striker, he got pieced up to both the body and the head by Turner – granted a forgivable loss hindsight 20/20.
However, he had a pretty competitive scrap with Morales who’s a respectable kickboxer. Medic hurt him in the 2nd round and finished him off – impressive being the 1st guy to KO Morales at the time.
He had early struggles with the pressure straight shots of Semelsberger. But he survived the KD in the 1st, had a competitive round in the 2nd which he edged and really swung the fight in the 3rd, finishing Semelsberger off. It was a good fight for reference that Medic can fight into the 3rd round.
He had Orolbai in some trouble early and was able to put down Means with a well-placed uppercut. But he’s coming off getting blasted by Soriano in just 30 seconds earlier this year.
Overall, Medic is a fluid/dangerous striker but has also shown some fragility through his shorter career.
Urbina was a lanky 185er but even more so now back down at 170, standing 6’3” with a 75” reach.
Back on the regionals, he hadn’t faced much adversity outside of the Brady fight where he got pot shotted. Then on TUF against Gore, he was at a pretty big speed disadvantage and got dropped three times, ultimately getting finished in the 2nd round.
So despite being a long guy, he has struggled to use his length well with consistency and doesn’t possess much footwork which has made it easier for guys to track him down – one of my bigger pet peeves in analyzing fighters.
He got outlanded by Battle but the bulk of those were kicks and did well in original clinching positions. I thought he looked sharp in his outing against Cosce though where he did some solid body work but also faced very little back his way and did get hit clean in the times Cosce did come forward.
But we saw some of those defensive issues rear head last time out against Radtke where he got walked down, struggled with Radtke’s boxing and eventually was put down with a left hook.
Overall, while I’ve seen some good from Urbina standing, he just doesn’t project to win striking fights at the UFC level given his lack of defense and dodgy durability.
How it plays out: Off the top, Urbina will realize a size advantage of 2” in height and 4” in reach. However, in watching both guys, it’s fairly straightforward as to who the better pure striker is and that’s Medic – there’s just more process to his striking, he’s cleaner, more technical and has a lot rawer knockout power. Both guys haven’t been as effective when put on the back foot though where they’ve had most of their success when they come forward. While I don’t think Urbina is great and he doesn’t have the same amount of power as the guys who have hurt Medic in the past, it isn’t out of the realm that he could hurt Medic. But I still like Medic a fair amount standing.
The wrestling/grappling component:
In the limited ground footage we have on Medic, he’s had some struggles.
Back regionally, it was when he was over aggressive on pocket entry that guys were able to duck under and hit TDs.
To which, he’s been controlled a bit on the ground but isn’t a guy who “accepts” being on bottom necessarily. He’ll look to work back up or will be aggressive in attacking submissions.
He does have two triangle choke victories on his record in those fights when he’s been taken down, so he does possess some BJJ acumen and a longer frame.
But he did get stuck on his back for some periods of time against pretty horrible guys.
Against Turner, he got grinded a bit early off a caught kick but was able to eventually work up – he ultimately got hurt on the feet to where he then gave the neck up – no real shame as Turner’s club and subbed numerous opponents.
Semelsberger briefly got him down, but Medic was able to work up quickly – he also up-kicked his way up after being knocked down early in the fight. Most recently, he got grinded on by Orolbai conceding seven TDs and was eventually submitted in the 2nd round – he was working up early but just couldn’t keep Orolbai off him.
Overall, our sample is still smaller for Medic in recent years but the floor projects to be where his main struggles will still lie and he hasn’t shown much offensive wrestling upside throughout his career.
Urbina’s a BJJ purple belt circa 2018 but he very well could’ve leveled up in the last seven years – just couldn’t confirm.
In that, most of his fights hit the floor and four of his eight pro wins (if you include TUF) have come on the ground – three via submission, one via ground and pound.
His wrestling seems okay but nothing special as he’s more of a transitional guy to the back. When on the ground, he’s shown good passing abilities and a willingness to attack from there.
However, I’ve also seen him lose position on numerous occasions as well primarily via opponents spinning in his guard.
But I would say his grappling is the best part of his game and is the main way he’s winning his fights.
He did have struggles with the wrestling of Brady but also did a good job of nullifying hooks or super dominate positions and was able to work up to the feet throughout the fight. He ran through Gilmore on the floor. He ultimately got his back taken by Battle in the 2nd round and succumbed to an RNC, but he was getting the better of the ground exchanges up until he got tired and made mistakes.
More recently, Urbina outwrestled Cosce who does come from a wrestling background and nearly finished him at the end of the 1st round which I thought was a good look at the time – although the Cosce brothers turned out to be massive frauds so contextually not very impressive.
Overall, he’s a capable ground fighter but he’s shown some wishy-washy/trade position components and isn’t a very good defensive wrestler.
How it plays out: This is where I’d see more potential merit to Urbina. While he’s not a great wrestler, he’s not incapable of landing TDs and Medic is only stuffing at 55% through his documented run. Medic has given the back up in a handful of fights as well so Urbina getting there wouldn’t necessarily be shocking – granted I don’t put his ground game on the level of a Jalin Turner or Orolbai.
I’ve never really been an Urbina guy as he just doesn’t rate out as a long term UFC talent – if he loses on Saturday he’ll probably get cut as well. Conversely, I’ve always had my skepticism with Medic because he came from a pretty dodgy regional scene and he’s shown some flakey components now throughout his run. In terms of the matchup, Medic really should put a guy like Urbina down in my opinion but as noted, there are ways for the fight to go wrong for Medic so I can’t say my opinion is “passionate” towards him this week.
—
On DraftKings, this is another viable matchup and another matchup that’s expected to end inside the distance.
Medic is priced up to 8.9k and is yet another massive value, sitting near -450 to win with a -325 ITD which is elite.
The primary concern or problem with Medic in this spot is that I’d label it very boom or bust. He doesn’t project to land takedowns so he essentially needs an early knockout. While I do understand him as a moderate/heavy favorite, there is just a lot of variance in striking exchanges.
Additionally, Medic is used to being a tall, long guy, and perhaps Urbina having size advantages against him will give Medic some problems. Plus Urbina’s grappling as an X factor.
So generally, I think Medic is a really strong upside target at 8.9k. He’s very affordable with elite ITD metrics. He can be prioritized, though without an early knockout, I don’t think he clears the optimal lineup.
Urbina at 7.3k is one underdog I’m willing to target, for the reasons mentioned above.
Probably the worst case scenario is that he gets a striking fight, of which he is taller and longer than Medic. And Medic has been dropped in two of his last four fights.
In the best case scenario, Urbina is able to land 2-3 takedowns and potentially threaten on the mat. Urbina also has a +425 ITD line which is OK given the context of the slate.
It’s really tough to be high on Urbina. He’s simply not very good and I do think Medic is a class above him as a striker. Urbina won’t carry any floor either and may just get shut out.
I can at least see a win condition for him though and some upside, so that’s enough to make him viable on this type of slate. I wouldn’t mind being a bit overweight to Urbina personally but on paper he’s not drastically better/worse than many fighters surrounding him in price.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Medic by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium)
Gabriella Fernandes vs. Julija Stoliarenko
Fight Odds: Fernandes -443, Stoliarenko +349
Odds to end ITD: -215
DraftKings Salaries: Fernandes 8.8k, Stoliarenko 7.4k
Weight Class: 125
Gabriella Fernandes will look to make it three in a row as she takes on Julija Stoliarenko this weekend.
Fernandes has turned the tide of her career a bit after losing back-to-back fights to start her UFC tenure. She’s now picked up two wins in a row, including a huge upset in China against Wang Cong last November.
Fernandes is primarily a striker, and I expect she will continue to have success in pure kickboxing fights. She’s a good athlete and can throw with power, and her volume is pretty reasonable.
At her best, Fernandes can control distance well, fight moving forward and backward, and she’s dangerous with both her hands and her kicks.
We’ve only seen two pure striking fights from Fernandes in the UFC though, and she still looked shaky in both. She was able to edge out a split decision against Carli Judice, though Judice outlanded her 169-119. More recently, Cong outlanded Fernandes 46-18, but Fernandes caught her in the second round and was able to jump on the back and lock up a RNC.
It was a big surprise, especially given how poor Fernandes has looked on the mat. It’s been a major downfall of hers, both outside of the UFC and in her short promotional career.
She now defends takedowns at 60 percent, and has given up 4, 3, and 2 takedowns to her first three opponents. Both Jasudaviscius and Bleda were able to hold her down long enough to win rounds, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see that trend continue.
Overall, Fernandes is going to have success at the mid or lower levels of this division when she can get striking fights. She throws enough volume to win rounds, and is effective enough to have occasional big moments.
But she has not necessarily been a stand out even from that sense, and her lack of defensive wrestling and grappling is a major concern that will clearly limit her ceiling potential.
Next Fernandes will take on Julija Stoliarenko, who is coming off an ugly loss to Luana Carolina in February 2024.
It marked the 6th loss for Stoliarenko in the UFC, where she now holds a 2-6 record, with both wins coming by first-round armbar. That’s no real surprise, as Stoliarenko holds 10 of her 11 pro wins by submission, and nearly all of them are first-round armbars.
In her last two losses, Stoliarenko has actually chased the takedown and had success, but she simply couldn’t land the armbar. Chelsea Chandler was able to reverse position, get on top and pound her out on the mat, and Carolina took her down and did the same.
Stoliarenko isn’t an awful striker but she can’t really string together three rounds. She’s only landing 2.49 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 4.54 per minute with a 46 percent defensive rate.
While I do see improvements in her wrestling, Stoliarenko still only averages 0.93 takedowns per 15 minutes, which isn’t great. Her ability to transition to that armbar is legit, but that’s the only real UFC level skill she carries.
Clearly, there isn’t enough process in Stoliarenko’s game to succeed longterm. And against Fernandes, I have to imagine that Stoliarenko needs early ground success to carry her to victory again.
If this fight plays out on the feet, Fernandes should have the advantage. Fernandes is the more effective striker, and should throw significantly more volume over the course of 15 minutes.
Stoliarenko may be able to hang on, but it’s still likely she gets significantly outpaced and loses 120-50, or something like that, on the total strike counts. Fernandes may even have knockout upside.
Even as a defensive wrestler, Stoliarenko may not hold up. Fernandes doesn’t wrestle much, but she did takedown Judice twice, and Stoliarenko has been finished on the ground with strikes in both of her last two losses.
Fernandes may actually have finishing upside on the mat here. If she wrestles, I could see Fernandes beating Stoliarenko up from top position, or even choking her out. She probably won’t wrestle though.
Stoliarenko very likely will wrestle, given Fernandes’ weaknesses. Honestly, I think Stoliarenko probably can take her down. But she isn’t a great control fighter and will just immediately shoot for that armbar, so it puts her in a position of either getting it, or failing and inevitably losing.
Fernandes at least has survived on the mat to Jasmine and Bleda, and I would guess she can survive here too. Stoliarenko has a legit dangerous armbar though, so that outcome is live. It just has to happen quickly or I doubt she’ll produce enough offense to win multiple rounds.
—
On DraftKings, Fernandes seems like a solid contrarian target.
With only 11 fights on the slate, nobody will be completely overlooked. But Fernandes has only scored 88 and 94 in her two wins, and priced at 8.8k, I doubt she’ll be a focal point for the public.
From a projection standpoint, she doesn’t rate out that well either. She may not wrestle at all, and there’s no guarantee of a knockout. But Fernandes is actually -160 to win ITD, and as I noted, she might actually have a bit of wrestling equity herself.
I still find it difficult to click on Fernandes often, but I can at least get behind her for the price as a secondary target. She has more finishing equity than the mid-tier fighters, against an opponent who’s been finished in 3/6 UFC losses.
It’s tough to be sure how this fight will look and I do think there’s significant risk of the fight extending, and Fernandes failing to reach 90 points. But her ITD metrics are surprisingly strong and if she can win in dominant fashion, she can exceed value and contend for the optimal lineup. I don’t mind her on this slate.
Stoliarenko is actually one dog I’m willing to take a shot on at 7.4k.
At least, Stoliarenko may have a decent shot to land one takedown, which means she’ll try for one armbar. That’s often all she needs to win. So I could see it. And if she does win, she’ll likely score 90+ points.
Stoliarenko is only +575 to win ITD and isn’t a very good fighter. I don’t feel super comfortable with her and wouldn’t want to be much overweight to the field.
But this is low level WMMA and Stoliarenko is capable of landing 1-2 takedowns, where Fernandes has issues. I can at least justify a path to victory for her, and one that might score well.
Stoliarenko is mostly a low-end secondary target but one I’m willing to mix in given the situation.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Fernandes by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium)
Cody Brundage vs. Eric McConico
Fight Odds: Brundage -158, McConico +135
Odds to end ITD: Under 1.5 RDs -135
DraftKings Salaries: Brundage 8.2k, McConico 8k
Weight Class: 205
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Eric McConico got a bit of a later start to his MMA career where he’s bounced around different regional scenes since turning pro back in 2018. He was riding a 5-fight win streak prior to dropping his short notice UFC debut earlier this year– he’s 9-3-1 as a pro. Cody Brundage failed in his Contender Series opportunity back in 2020 but was brought into the UFC the following year as a short notice fill and has shockingly been able to keep a roster spot – he’s 5-5-1 (1 NC) in the UFC and 11-6-1 (1 NC) as a pro. This is an impromptu booking thrown together just a few days ago and neither guy had anything booked, so the fight will be up at 205 lbs.
The striking component:
McConico is more of your cross over athlete type as he played running back in college but transitioned to MMA after.
He’s not the tallest middleweight out there at 6’ but stands southpaw and possesses a 75” reach. His striking style resembles one of a conventional kickboxer.
He’s not a particularly high volume guy but is relatively technical in his approach with solid 1-2s and kicks to both the body and head – his head kicks are nasty specifically as he’s hurt multiple opponents with them and has even landed through opponents’ guards – like guys can still block them but they’re getting wobbled at the same time which shows how impactful they are.
He’s been able to dictate many of the exchanges in his fights and outland his opponents.
However, he has gotten overconfident in the pocket at times where opponents have been able to counter or buckle him when getting a bit too overzealous. But his general defense at range is okay and he largely rolls with shots well.
However, he has been finished via strikes in all three of his pro losses though which needs to be noted – I wasn’t able to view the first two and they came 5+ years ago but obviously the length and timing gave him issues in his debut against Ruziboev, which hindsight was a tough matchup for him and he was eventually put down.
Overall, McConico’s a decent striker with some power but his durability is of some concern – although I have seen him fight through adversity multiple times.
Brundage is a wrestler by base who’s boxing is okay but relatively basic, largely just throwing jabs, overhands and the occasional leg kick.
He has six pro wins via KO/TKO and will commit to his overhand right where he KO’d Gore, dropped Vieira and more recently put down Marquez, but he hasn’t shown much in terms of stringing stuff together.
We did see some extended exchanges between him and Kropschot in his last LFA fight where he got the better of the exchanges but he also was getting hit clean as well by a base jiu-jitsu guy which wasn’t the best of looks – he struggled with the jab specifically.
He dropped his DWCS fight via strikes to William Knight but they were downward elbows against the fence when he was attempting a TD – a tad memey but also horrible fight IQ as his coaches were yelling at him to adjust his head positioning – he didn’t and was finished as a result. We also saw him take significant damage in similar positions against Dalcha in that fight but he was able to survive the barrage.
He was essentially KO’d by Alhassan but quit citing back of the head shots. Despite putting Marquez down and looking largely good for most of the round, he got hurt badly himself where a well-timed ref intervention may have saved him.
Most recently, not much happened in the Abdul-Malik fight – Brundage did a bit more in round 1, Abdul-Malik edged round 2 and then the head clash happened early round 3 resulting in the fight getting stopped.
Overall, Brundage is serviceable with some power but he still hasn’t fought many good “pure” strikers or spent extensive time with the better ones in space – he’s a bit fragile too.
How it plays out: Off the top, both guys will be the same height but McConico will realize a 5” reach advantage and a southpaw look. The striking has some variance here as both guys have power, dodgy durability and aren’t anything special in terms of work rate. While I think Brundage is probably the more live party to land something big early, I think there’s more process in the striking of McConico and he’s the more proven guy in terms of winning minutes in extended striking fights having decisions and late finishes on his record.
The wrestling/grappling component:
As noted, McConico pursued a football path in college but he did wrestle in his high school years.
He’s also a BJJ purple belt as of 2020 but could have leveled up to brown belt since then – just couldn’t confirm.
In most of his recent fights, he’s primarily looking to strike but we have seen him go to cage push in a handful of matchups where he’s been able to rack up some minutes.
But in his last regional win prior to his debut, he secured an earlier TD and finished via RNC – his two other pro submission wins come via RNCs as well so it appears there’s some process in his grappling despite not seeing him realize a ton of conventional wrestling success.
On the flip, he hasn’t been shot on much but has largely stayed upright in the times I’ve seen.
Tyler Ray took him down a couple times in their fight but McConico was able to dig underhooks, wall walk and work up relatively quickly – Ray is a base wrestler who wrestled DIII collegiately as well, whose career successes have come on the floor for additional context and McConico did well in those exchanges.
Overall, I’d like a larger sample of McConico on the ground before making any definitive claim but he appears competent.
Brundage comes from a DII collegiate wrestling background and is a BJJ purple belt.
In that, he’s shown decent TD concepts and general positional control when he chooses to solidify positions. He’s got a handful of arm triangles, did submit Kropschot with one who is a brown belt which was somewhat impressive, and scored a guillotine in his outing against Dalcha.
In that Krop fight as well, he was threatened with a Buggy Choke (unique submission) and did defend it properly – more so him listening to his coaches in that scenario than anything because at first, I don’t think he knew what to do – but props nonetheless working out. He also had Knight mounted back on DWCS.
In general, his offensive wrestling/grappling played a good part in his regional success and he slam KO’d Zach Reese a few fights back.
Defensively, he’s had his issues despite providing resistance.
He ultimately got grinded out by Maximov in his debut but didn’t get finished and showed good submission defense – however he got put into dominant position multiple times. He lost position against Michal and got pounded out in the guard – not the best of looks.
Against Vieira, he stuffed 6/7 TDs but got his back taken at the end of the 1st – then Brundage decided to jump a guillotine in the 2nd round which put him on bottom ultimately leading to him getting subbed – that was easily Top 5 most bonehead IQ decisions of 2023 in jumping on a world champion black belt.
He jumped guillotines in all three rounds against Dumas and got controlled for the bulk of the fight – not a great look. Malkoun was grinding on him prior to the DQ and he more recently got outwrestled and submitted by Nickal – no shame.
Overall, he’s a decent offensive wrestler who’s physically strong but his last six losses have come on the ground or in the clinch where he’s made dumb decisions in many fights and/or looked outright poor on the bottom.
How it plays out: The ground is weird because while I think Brundage is the better pure wrestler of the two, as alluded to above, he just hasn’t realized extended success with it in the UFC and has ultimately succumbed on the bottom multiple times. Also, while I think he’s fully capable of taking McConico down, I’m not really sold that he’s going to keep him there for large swaths of time or be the first guy to submit him. Just by proxy of cardio and perseverance, McConico could realize ground success here as well.
Dumpster fire of a fight generally but more specifically when you factor in the super short notice nature for both guys. Brundage is arguably the most flakey fighter on the roster regardless of weight class so he’s not a guy I have much faith in regardless of the matchup. He realistically should be 4-8 in the UFC and not 5-5-1-1 with all of the nonsense. On the flip side, I don’t think McConico is a world beater and while his debut was a bad showing, Ruziboev was a tough draw in the guys first fight in the promotion and on short notice so I also don’t think you can hold the guys feet to the fire too much. The general dynamic I see here is Brundage early and McConico late. In terms of pure pick, I’m going to go with McConico because I’ve actually seen him fight more effectively through adversity, fight more effectively for extended durations of time, he’s probably going to put up healthy resistance to Brundage’s wrestling and he has finishing upside of his own. From a side consideration, I think McConico’s cardio is better generally but also in this particular spot as he’s a main training partner of Jared Cannonier who’s fighting on next week’s PPV card – so I’d assume he’s not fully “coming off the couch” and has been getting in hard rounds in recent weeks to help Jared prep at least.
—
On DraftKings, I am absolutely hating my life right now because not only does Cody Brundage still have a roster spot, but we get another shitshow of a fight on short notice that will be one of the most impactful matchups on the slate.
Brundage is priced at 8.2k and looks to be a super strong DraftKings target this weekend. If he wins, I would expect it to come early, and because of that, he very likely exceeds value and contends for the optimal lineup.
McConico has been knocked out in all three of his pro losses, so I definitely think Brundage hurting him or club-and-subbing him is on the table. ITD odds aren’t out yet but Brundage should carry a strong number in a fight that’s -135 to end in less than 1.5 Rounds.
Of course, an extended fight would spell disaster for Brundage as he doesn’t string together enough offense. At that point, I’d be rooting for McConico to win because Brundage’s chances of accruing enough points to be optimal would drop significantly.
McConico is priced at 8k and is arguably the more risky of the two because we’ve only seen him once in the UFC and he got smashed. He doesn’t rate out as a super strong prospect either.
In theory, McConico is more comfortable fighting over the duration, and Brundage is addicted to quitting, so a mid or late round stoppage feels somewhat viable. His ITD number should be decent as well compared to all other underdogs. I don’t particularly trust in the skills of McConico to actually go out there and finish a fight though.
It’s also worth noting that Brundage has RUINED three of the last five DK slates he’s been a part of. Even when he’s getting completely pounded on, he’s somehow found a way to avoid a loss on his record. There’s really no way for me to have any kind of trust in his game, how the fight will play out, or whether there will even be a winner..
From a macro sense, putting bias aside, this is a fight that’s likely to end inside the distance, in a mid-range with little options. Based on that, it’s a fight I would recommend targeting.
I think Brundage has higher upside on paper and he could arguably be the slight priority, but I’m debating picking him to lose again and I would likely aim to not let this fight kill me as best as I could. That would mean coming in near the field on both sides, for starters. I honestly don’t mind coming in overweight to the fight as a whole as well, given the ITD potential.
This is super gross stuff and especially so to start the night. My hope is people are so scared off by both sides that we don’t get super chalk here, and McConico as the dog, off a bad showing, may be even more overlooked.
So in tournaments, again, I do like targeting this fight. Being overweight makes sense with lower public ownerships. There’s just a ton of variance and many ways things could go wrong.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: McConico by TKO, RD 3 (Confidence=Low)Note: Please read the full analysis, that is much more important than who I pick to win. The confidence relates to my pick to win, not the path to victory. Picks are NOT bets. Matchup breakdowns are written by Brett unless otherwise noted, and all DraftKings analysis is written by Brett. Both Technical Tim and Luke Lampe will also contribute to matchup breakdowns.
MAIN CARD
Roman Dolidze vs. Anthony Hernandez
Fight Odds: Hernandez -301, Dolidze +247
Odds to end ITD: -200
DraftKings Salaries: Hernandez 8.7k, Dolidze 7.5k
Weight Class: 185
As the prophecy was written, Anthony “Fluffy” Hernandez continues his climb toward the middleweight championship, and he’ll get another fun main event opportunity this weekend against contender Roman Dolidze.
Hernandez is a pace grappling machine, and is one of the best in the sport today in that particular style.
I wouldn’t say Hernandez is an elite athlete, nor an elite wrestler, nor is he that great at any avenue of the game in particular. But he can grapple his ass off for as long as is necessary to drown his opponents and get his hand raised.
Through 10 tracked UFC fights, Hernandez is averaging 6.27 takedowns per 15 minutes, topping out at 8, 8, and 10 takedowns landed with that ceiling coming in a recent main event victory over Michel Pereira.
Once on top, Hernandez can take the back and hunt for chokes. He can land ground-and-pound. He really never stops working and it only adds to his ability to drown opponents once those takedowns start landing.
Still, Hernandez is semi one-dimensional in that he needs to grind to win. He’s not a particularly strong range striker, and his distance exchanges are usually just a mess and a war, and simply a means to get on the inside and clinch/grapple where he can excel. Officially, Hernandez is landing 7.1 distance strikes per minute while absorbing 7.2 per minute, but only 27% of his cage time is spent at distance, which is far below the divisional average of 64%.
I view Hernandez as a shaky fighter from the sense that he is not physically dominant, and can lose the fight in multiple areas. He can be outstruck, he can be hurt, he can be taken down and he can be submitted.
However, his style is exhausting to deal with, so you better get him out of there quickly. If not, Hernandez’ pressure and grind is likely to exceed, and once he starts landing takedowns and working his top game, it’s a tough hill to climb for his opponents.
Next Hernandez will be taking on Roman Dolidze, who is coming off a nice main event win over Marvin Vettori in 2025.
Dolidze is pretty well-rounded, and looked improved as a distance striker against Vettori, where I had previously not thought too highly of him.
Dolidze’s game has also felt very shaky to me, and I’ve probably been lower on him than the public in several matchups, which has not always worked out in my favor.
To start with, Dolidze is likely best on the ground as a submission grappler, where is dangerous and pretty physical. He’s used leg locks to destroy knees, and to sweep and earn top position. He’s also very dangerous with his ground-and-pound.
But his wrestling has been mediocre, among other aspects. Dolidze only lands 1.11 takedowns per 15 minutes and he defends at 33 percent, which is awful.
I suppose part of the reason for his lack of defense is that he’s willing to grapple on his back, chase leg locks and guillotines, etc. I just hate that style and I would prefer he defend takedowns naturally.
Historically, Dolidze hasn’t been able to separate on the feet either. He carries knockout power, but he lands 4.3 distance strikes per minute while absorbing 4.6 per minute, with a 49 percent striking defense rate which isn’t great.
Dolidze’s cardio has also been bad at times. He just fought five rounds so I have to give him credit, but I wouldn’t say cardio is a strong suit of Dolidze’s.
All together, I just don’t love the continuity of Dolidze’s game. I think he’s a dangerous grappler who fails to realize enough top game success, and he’s not enough of a separator at distance, where there are also concerns in an extended fight.
This matchup should be fun, as are most Hernandez matchups. And like most Hernandez matchups, my guess is that this goes the way of Hernandez sooner or later.
He’s attempting nearly 14 takedowns per 15 minutes, so while I do believe Dolidze may be able to shrug him off and keep the fight upright initially, I don’t know how long he can sustain that path. Especially with a shit takedown defense rate of 33%, it kind of seems likely Hernandez will get on top of him by late in the first round, if not sooner.
From there, Dolidze is still dangerous. He can hunt for a leg lock. He can threaten for a guillotine. He can sweep. Maybe he can reverse and get top position, and start to pound out Hernandez himself.
But if he can’t make that happen quickly, I just don’t know how he keeps up with Hernandez. Hernandez will tire him out, wear him down, land strikes, and the takedowns will just start to land easier and easier. Eventually, I wouldn’t be shocked if Hernandez found a sub or TKO finish.
Dolidze can also win this fight at distance. I think he’s the more dangerous striker and I’d favor him over Hernandez outright. Again, he needs to defend takedowns or scramble up to get those exchanges, which feels unlikely.
Early on, Dolidze might very well have success. Maybe he hurts Hernandez. Maybe he takes Hernandez down himself. But I think he likely needs a finish or Hernandez will eventually find takedown success of his own, and the fight will go downhill from there.
I wouldn’t be shocked to see Dolidze compete early but the style of Hernandez is just so difficult, so at this point I feel obligated to pick Hernandez to get the job done.
—
On DraftKings, Hernandez will rate out as the top play on the slate overall at 8.7k.
With only 12 fights on the slate, there aren’t as many total options to choose from, especially in the mid-range. Although to be fair, on this slate, nearly all of those 12 favorites are chalk, and could in theory produce big results.
Nobody has the ceiling of Hernandez though, and at 8.7k, he’s an essential lock for me. He scored 192 DraftKings points in his lone five-round win, and we’ve seen him score 135, 120, 117, and 116 in other three-round wins.
The only real downside is if Hernandez wins too easily, or has to defend a bit in round one before getting an early sub in round two. Maybe he only scores near 100 points in that case.
But the most likely outcome is many takedowns, lots of control, lots of strikes, and 115+ in a win. At 8.7k, Hernandez is in a tier of his own this week.
He will also be the most popular fighter on the slate, so this won’t be a sneaky target at all, but I think he’s worth it. His chances of exceeding value and clearing the optimal are so strong in a win over five rounds, whether he wins ITD or not. He’s +130 to win ITD for what it’s worth.
I will probably play Hernandez on every team that doesn’t contain Dolidze, but there’s a good chance he clears 60% public ownership and therefore won’t hold a massive edge in large fields anyway.
Dolidze at 7.5k is very much in consideration.
First of all, we might get a loser on the optimal lineup. There is only one favorite with odds worse than -200 this week, and only a couple with odds worse than -300. Picking and choosing from a pool of big dogs feels rough.
I don’t think Dolidze is a fantastic points play in that he could easily be taken down, held down, and lose. But at least by targeting Dolidze you’re getting leverage against Hernandez, and a very likely optimal score if he pulls off the upset.
Given that situation alone, I think Dolidze is a solid secondary target and it makes sense to roster him. I could even see some stack merit in large fields, but for example, Pereira just landed 24 strikes in a loss to Hernandez in 25 minutes, so this isn’t an ideal fight for both sides to score big.
Dolidze is dangerous enough to beat Hernandez up or finish him from top position on occasion though, and I don’t mind him as a secondary target this week at 7.5k. He ranges from +230 to win ITD to +385, which is alright.
I don’t necessarily consider Dolidze to have an awesome floor though, and if I had to guess, other dogs are more likely to end up optimal in a loss than Dolidze.
The main event status and leverage give Dolidze real viability, but I will ultimately lean moderately toward Hernandez.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Hernandez by TKO, RD 3 (Confidence=Medium)
Steve Erceg vs. Ode Osbourne
Fight Odds: Erceg -555, Osbourne +423
Odds to end ITD: -220
DraftKings Salaries: Erceg 9.1k, Osbourne 7.1k
Weight Class: 135
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Steve Erceg’s a guy who came a bit out of left field, getting signed to the organization back in 2023 where he found himself fighting for a title in less than 12 months. Despite a valiant losing effort to Pantoja in May of last year, he’s now riding a 3-fight skid, dropping his subsequent two fights to divisional elites in Kara France and Moreno – he’s 3-3 in the UFC and 12-4 as a pro. Ode Osbourne’s a Contender Series alum who earned a contract on one of the earlier seasons back in 2019. He hasn’t had the easiest of roads since joining the roster, leading to his underwhelming record, but he has pulled off wins at the right times to remain with the promotion. He’ll be stepping in on short notice to replace Hyun Sung Park who was elevated to the main event last week – he’s 5-6 in the UFC and 13-8 as a pro.
The striking component:
Erceg is a grappler by base but has shown some quality boxing skills so far in the UFC.
Regionally, he traditionally wasn’t the guy that’s going to throw a crazy high volume of strikes necessarily but he did pick and choose his shots well. His output has been better thus far in the UFC, landing 4.4 SLpM at 46% and 5.2 DLpM at 43%.
The issue I have with him is that he tends to stand very upright/rigid and can also fight linearly.
We have seen him hit cleanly in multiple fights but specifically when he fought Haddon in one of his extended fights where he did get more tired, he started to get hit cleaner. We also saw both Costa and Schnell land some big shots on him within the pocket – that’s where his defense is a lot more suspect.
In his defense, he’s shown some pop in his shots despite not being a perennial power threat with only two KOs on the rap sheet – he does seem to be comfortable as a striker despite his grappling base.
I thought him striking competitively with Dvorak in his debut was impressive as Dvorak isn’t an easy guy to look good against – he cracked Dvorak a couple times as well. He definitely faced some adversity in his next outing against Costa where both guys hurt each other, but he did outstrike Costa 74 to 54 and won in the clinch.
He killed Schnell which is what it is because Schnell has no chin, but he also took the best shots of Pantoja and outlanded him to the head 87 to 75.
However, both Dvorak and Costa took rounds in those fights which needs to be noted.
He was looking good against Kara-France, but that upright/linear style finally caught up to him as Kara-France landed a clean switch stance combo which put Erceg down.
Most recently, he fought competitively with Moreno and actually outlanded him on significant strikes 116-89, but the round to round sequencing coupled with his optics not looking the best ultimately put him a step behind Moreno in dropping that decision.
Overall, I like Erceg as an offensive striker as he’s got clean boxing and some cheeky power, but he’s shown defensive vulnerabilities at points and is only stopping shots at 52% and 55% respectively which are below the divisional averages – in fairness, some strength of schedule context needs to be applied in losing to the current champion, a former champion and recent title challenger.
Osbourne is a respectable striker as he’s a long, athletic guy for the weight class that possesses some fast hands and explosive elements.
He likes to kick, fire straight shots and will flurry on opponents that he feels are hurt. In that, he has shown power components with three of his five UFC wins coming via KO/TKO.
In terms of his fights, Kelleher did outland him in the brief time that fight was at space in his debut. He blasted Jerome Rivera who was terrible and was cut pretty quickly. We got some more data on him at space in his fight with Kape though, where I largely thought he had a decent first round before he got blasted with a flying knee.
He was able to be the more effective striker against Vergara but the margins he won that fight by weren’t large – Osbourne also slowed significantly in the 3rd round and Vergara landed on him at an over 50% distance clip. He blasted Adashev in a minute.
The Nam fight was at a tepid pace, Osbourne tried a halfhearted flying knee and proceeded to get ice’d with a right hook from Nam. The Johnson fight was competitive at distance where the argument is there that Johnson was the more effective striker in totality – Johnson came in on short notice and was super sick going into that fight though.
Not much happened in the Almabayev or Filho fights. Most recently, he dropped Rodriguez early but couldn’t finish and is coming off getting the better of the exchanges against Gurule, eventually putting him down off a kick counter straight shot.
Defensively, he will keep his head right on the center line when he’s flurrying and largely just relies on his athleticism.
I also don’t like how he will fight with his hands down as he tends not to get them back up after he throws his combos, which allows him to get hit clean when distance is closed.
The pressure of Vergara and Johnson also gave him some issues and he’s been KO’d in two of his six UFC losses – granted by two guys who hit hard at 125.
Overall, Osbourne has respectable tools offensively but he’s not a consistent volume guy, has a negative significant strike differential of -0.8/minute, has a dodgy chin and only defends distance strikes at 52% despite his length.
How it plays out: Off the top, Erceg will be one of the taller opponents Osbourne’s fought, realizing a 1” height advantage but Osbourne will have a 5” reach advantage. I can’t say I feel overtly comfortable with Erceg on the feet here because of his own defensive flaws, coupled with Osbourne length, speed and power. At the same time, I trust Erceg’s pacing more than I do Osbourne’s, he can match the technicality of Osbourne and is also pretty live to hurt Osbourne himself in my opinion.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Erceg’s a BJJ black belt and an okay wrestler despite his primary jiu-jitsu base.
So I don’t think he’s anything special in pure wrestling sense but what I do like is his timing on shots as he does a good job of reacting to what opponents are doing – he falls more into the “hustler” category in comparison to being some tactician in being able to beat guys to positions.
In that, he can hit a multitude of TDs but really excels from the body lock to either trip or drag his opponents down.
I think one of Erceg’s best attributes as a fighter is his transitional grappling game in the sense that if you give the guy an inch, he can take a mile. He’s going to be very aggressive in terms of working into dominant positions or capitalizing on opportunities opponents give to him.
Given his base, we haven’t seen many guys look to pursue TDs against him but he’s not immune to being taken down as well.
Going back to the Haddon fight though that did extend, he did get more tired in that fight despite winning but his shots became much more sloppy and less processed. Dvorak got some top time on Erceg, but he was mainly fending off subs or sweeps – similar to Costa where Erceg did a good job of working back up and out of positions.
He ultimately got outgrappled by Pantoja, conceding nine TDs on 19 attempts with eight minutes of control to drop the fight. A late mistake ultimately cost him the fight, but he scrambled better than most guys with Pantoja and obviously didn’t get submitted, which is a good feather in his cap.
He largely did well with the TDs of Moreno last time out, stuffing 4/5 shots.
Overall, I like Erceg’s ground game, but he’ll probably run into struggles against more physical/technically stronger positional players.
Osbourne comes from a DIII wrestling background, but ironically we haven’t seen him realize much success with it in his MMA/UFC career, only landing 1,1 TD per 15 minutes at 28%.
Against Vergara, he went 1/7 on TDs and wasn’t able to establish control. He went 3 /10 on Johnson with a little less than three minutes of control to which he also wasn’t able to do much with it. But it was a close fight and those handful of latter TDs did help Osbourne get the nod on the cards.
Despite his background, he’s usually the one that’s actually being taken down.
Osbourne reps a BJJ purple belt which has aided him in securing triangles or armbars from bottom in a handful of scenarios back regionally.
In those instances, all three of those opponents did that to themselves meaning they defended very poorly or put themselves deeper into the submissions which allowed Ode to secure. I can’t take anything away from Ode in that regard, but those regional guys had little grappling chops.
Another scenario was when Kelleher took him down – he passed his guard and guillotined him from cage mount in less than three minutes. We also saw Vergara get on top of Osbourne later in the fight in which he just played guard and lost the round.
Almabayev went 2/5 on TDs where he locked up a deeper Peruvian Necktie towards the end of the 1st and got to Osbourne’s back in the 2nd, finding a RNC shortly after.
He’s been extensively outgrappled in three of his last four fights, getting submitted by Almabayev and Filho, and giving up nine minutes of control to Rodriguez. Despite the final result of the last fight against Gurule, he ultimately lost the 1st round via wrestling on all three scorecards.
In the somewhat defense of Osbourne, he’s fought a handful of quality ground fighters in his run, but his TDD sits at 65% which isn’t great – the more alarming metric though is that he’s losing 84% of control time positions.
Overall, despite Osbourne’s background, the ground has proven to be a clear flaw in his game at the UFC level
How it plays out: This is where I give a pretty decided advantage to Erceg. While referencing that Erceg isn’t “special” as a pure wrestler, I don’t think you need to be to take Osbourne down. Additionally, the levels in jiu-jitsu between these two is pretty massive. It’s honestly to the point where one back take from Erceg could be the fight – if not probably just the round entirely. Osbourne “could” take Erceg down but I think that would be a big mistake for Osbourne to engage in the grappling by his own volition.
Funky booking as you have a guy in Erceg who was just challenging for a title a little over 12 months ago versus Osbourne whose job was literally on the line in his last fight as he would have been cut from the promotion with a loss. So, in a macro sense, this is a levels fight as Osbourne is the quality of opponent Erceg really should beat at a sizable clip. But as noted, Osbourne isn’t drawing dead as he has KO viability in the first half of the fight. If that doesn’t happen though, I don’t see how he wins coupled with that his cardio’s always been bad and he’s now coming in on short notice. If Erceg’s smart, he just pushes grappling early and audits Osbourne on the mat. Erceg via Submission is the official pick.
—
On DraftKings, I do like this fight for finishing equity.
Erceg is priced up to 9.1k but again he’s a massive value, and lined north of -550 to win with a -175 ITD line. Compared to past slates, this feels like a smash spot.
Erceg is coming off three losses in a row though, and in terms of the fight dynamic, there are still bust risks. If Erceg just strikes, we could see an extended fight and one that doesn’t realize a ceiling outcome for him in a decision.
However it does feel like Erceg has grappling equity, submission equity, and knockout equity. It’s a “dangerous” fight but one he should win unless he gets KOd quickly.
Given the price point, Erceg is a pretty easy target. I wouldn’t say he’s an outright priority but he will fit in very nicely considering the savings from the top end, and still has among the best ITD lines on the entire slate.
I assume Erceg will be chalky but I’d consider him a solid upside target this week at an affordable price point.
Osbourne at 7.1k is viable for KO upside.
I’d be pretty surprised if he could string together enough offense to win a decision, and I doubt he really grapples. He just needs to hurt Erceg early, which Erceg recently has a KO loss to Kara-France, so it’s quite possible.
Osbourne is +650 to win ITD which is poor, but that comes along with being a huge underdog. And in that, Osbourne isn’t a phenomenal play as he likely won’t win this fight very often.
When he does win, it’s probably an early KO and a 100 point DK score though, so it’s tough to balance.
I don’t mind some shares of Osbourne. He’s a low-end secondary, boom/bust type play on this particular slate. I’m not excited by him but I understand mixing in some exposure given his ceiling and general variance in striking exchanges.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Erceg by RNC, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium-High)
Iasmin Lucindo vs. Angela Hill
Fight Odds: Lucindo -176, Hill +150
Odds to end ITD: +400
DraftKings Salaries: Lucindo 8.3k, Hill 7.9k
Weight Class: 115
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
Coming off a hard fought win against Ketlen Souza, Angela Hill will look to make it two in a row this weekend against Iasmin Lucindo.
Hill is basically a striker, and she is always live to win striking fights. She lands 5.47 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.92 in return. She defends strikes at a solid 61 percent. I respect Hill on the feet. She fights hard and can always have success in the clinch. She is also just very tough and has good durability. She can mix in kicks, punches, knees, and elbows. She is just so experienced and comfortable as a striker. She also has pretty good cardio in recent years.
Hill doesn’t really land many takedowns but she has faced great competition and has fought a ton of grapplers recently. She only lands 0.81 takedowns per 15 minutes. I have always considered her an underrated grappler and she actually landed two takedowns against Pinheiro and submitted Pinheiro. She also landed five takedowns against Denise Gomes. Most recently, she landed two takedowns against Ketlen Souza. I do think she can sneakily take down low to mid tier fighters of this division.
Hill does defend takedowns at 75 percent which is solid, and I do think she has really improved her TDD over the years. Hill can be controlled for stretches. You saw that against Jandiroba and Dern in her last two losses. Those two are ELITE grapplers though and I have seen Hill scramble up fine vs other fighters. She also scrambled up well against Tabatha Ricci.
I just think Hill is a good competitor. She can strike in volume and is tough as nails. She also has decent takedown defense and is capable of taking down lower tier fighters.
I will say the main concern that I have for Hill is her age. She turned 40 this year. I guess I am just saying that I am a bit worried of an imminent Hill decline and I had more confidence in her a couple of years ago.
Hill will be taking on Iasmin Lucindo who is coming off a loss to Amanda Lemos.
Lucindo is only 23 years old and is now 4-2 in the UFC. I mostly consider Lucindo a generalist. She is a well-rounded fighter offensively.
As a striker, Lucindo has good hands and combination punching. She also has good cardio and doesn’t slow down for 15 minutes. She is pretty quick in general. She lands 2.94 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.53 in return. She has okay output but I would like it to be a bit higher. I don’t think she will outstrike the good strikers in this division as she isn’t super dangerous. However, I consider her an overall decent striker.
Lucindo can also wrestle a bit and that is actually what she has been relying on to win fights. She lands 2.15 takedowns per 15 minutes and has landed 4, 2, 2, 3, and 1 takedowns in her last five fights. She really likes to go to a body lock takedown. I think her takedowns are okay, and she can float on top a bit.
I am pretty concerned about Lucindo’s submission defense and TDD though. She has three submission losses on her record in the regionals but I could not find those fights. To be fair, most of those fights were over four or five years ago when she was 16 to 17 years old lol. So she certainly has improved since then and maybe has leveled up her submission defense. It is hard to know for sure either way.
However, Lucindo’s takedown defense and get-up game looks bad. She defends takedowns at 54 percent now and was taken down three times against Lemos. Once she was taken down by Lemos she could not get up and it was really concerning. She just looked to have no get-up game. Anytime Lucindo was taken down, she never got up and lost the round. That is concerning.
Overall, Lucindo is a solid offensive fighter. She can strike a bit and grapple a bit. However, she isn’t elite anywhere and looks to have defensive wrestling issues.
As far as this matchup goes, this would have been a clear play on Hill for me a couple of years ago. Hill generally always beats these younger newer fighters and has historically been underrated.
The age of Hill is just concerning me a bit though. I think it is possible that Hill will underperform my expectations here just because of her age.
I still will pick Hill to win though. I think Hill probably has a volume advantage here. I honestly think Hill is a better wrestler too and may be able to land some takedowns and consolidate a bit of top position. I am going to go with Hill because I think at her best, she has a little more upside with the volume, experience, and sneaky takedown upside.
Lucindo can probably strike competitively and may be able to land takedowns herself. However, I don’t know if Lucindo will easily hold Hill down. I think Hill has better get-ups than Lucindo so if anyone has top time upside it is Hill in my opinion.
I still have my concerns with Hill as I mentioned though. Lucindo is a decent fighter and it wouldn’t shock me if this was just a razor close competitive decision. However, I don’t really see why Lucindo is -190 either. The line just seems wide and I am not sure Lucindo is skill for skill better at anything than Hill.
—
On DraftKings, this is one of our tightest mid-range fights of the week and one of the most competitively lined matchup on the slate, which says a lot as Lucindo is still sitting near -200 to win.
I mostly agree with Tim’s analysis, and I don’t particularly understand why Lucindo is favored this heavily, for any other reason than a massive age gap which does favor the younger fighter historically.
On paper, this looks very competitive to me. Hill surely has a higher volume ceiling than Lucindo, and I would generally expect striking exchanges to be tight. Lucindo seems likely to land a couple of takedowns, and with them, she could secure rounds. However, Lucindo has worse defensive wrestling than Hill on paper, and it seems equally possible that Hill could mix in a couple of takedowns to secure rounds.
So in total, I’m expecting a pretty fun, medium-paced matchup where both sides have a bit of grappling equity, and striking exchanges should be competitive.
I’m not sure that either project to be optimal in that situation and 8.3k and 7.9k respectively, and that’s the biggest issue. This fight is -500 to go the distance, and Lucindo and Hill are only +400 and +1000 to win ITD respectively.
Lucindo at 8.3k is only a price play for me. Given that there are few options on this slate, I could see how you might need to force more Lucindo in than what feels ideal on paper, simply due to her price point.
And if she can land 3+ takedowns, Lucindo can potentially reach 85-90 points and contend for the optimal lineup. So there is a path.
But in three decisions, Lucindo has only scored 73, 75 and 85 DK points, which is very mediocre. I don’t think I will prioritize her generally because of this.
Overall, Lucindo rates out OK at 8.3k given she’s near -200 to win and does carry some wrestling equity. But there are still real ceiling concerns in this matchup and I probably won’t end up with much exposure to her unless I’m forced to due to salary.
Hill is in a similar boat at 7.9k.
I definitely think Hill can win the fight, but she’s +150 to win and is only 7.9k, so she doesn’t even save much salary. If she wins, I really don’t know if she’d end up optimal regardless because you’ll still need to save salary elsewhere.
Hill at least has a higher floor/ceiling than Lucindo based on pacing. In recent decision wins, Hill has scored 86, 109, 104, 71 and 77. She may even have more wrestling “domination” equity here if Lucindo truly struggles to get back up.
Again, this feels like a price play more than anything. It’s tough to prioritize Hill as she’s arguably overpriced, with almost no finishing equity. Her ceiling isn’t guaranteed.
But she’s one dog who can win, and perhaps that’s value in itself. I think there are spots where you could play Hill over Lucindo straight up to be unique,
I don’t mind Hill overall and I wouldn’t be surprised if she won and scored in the mid-80s, but I just wish she was cheaper, and her cost will probably limit my exposure to her overall.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Hill by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Andre Fili vs. Christian Rodriguez
Fight Odds: Rodriguez -246, Fili +205
Odds to end ITD: +155
DraftKings Salaries: Rodriguez 8.4k, Fili 7.8k
Weight Class: 145
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have an interesting matchup here between tough as nails veteran Christian Rodriguez and the well respected veteran Andre Fili.
I just consider Rodriguez a well-rounded scrapper who is capable of neutralizing opponents in all areas. He is a pretty decent striker. He lands 3.63 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.66 in return and defends strikes at 54 percent. I think his striking is totally fine. He has decent boxing and can mix in some kicks as well. He also defends his head well statistically. I think he thrives best on the inside in close range. He is also very tough too and seems durable.
Rodriguez is also a capable grappler and resister. He lands 1.84 takedowns per 15 minutes and defends takedowns at 69 percent. Rodriguez isn’t perfect as a defensive grappler. He can be taken down here and there. However, he does defend takedowns decently and is super seasoned at reversing positions on the mat, and making his opponents consistently work. He is honestly just super difficult to keep on the mat. His get ups and reversals are borderline elite and he has consistently demonstrated this skill against very accomplished wrestlers.
Rodriguez also just has good cardio and even won round 3 vs Pearce. Rodriguez is just good enough offensively and defensively to tire opponents out and overwhelm them. In his most recent fight against Melquizael Costa which he lost, he also won round 3. That was a really close fight but also just showed that Rodriguez has good cardio.
Rodriguez was recently submitted with a guillotine by Julian Erosa but I do think it was a bit random and Erosa is super dangerous with his front chokes, so I don’t think it was that concerning.
My main concern with Rodriguez is where his offense comes from when he is facing a guy who won’t grapple himself to exhaustion. We did see that a bit in the Costa fight. It was finally a matchup where someone wasn’t trying to psychotically land takedowns on Rodriguez. Rodriguez did land 6 takedowns and landed 64 significant strikes. That isn’t bad collective offense but I do think he thrives more as a neutralizer in the UFC than a guy who puts up offense.
Rodriguez will be taking on Andre Fili who is also coincidentally coming off a loss to Melquizael Costa.
I have never minded Fili. Fili is a decent striker. He lands 3.84 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.15 in return. He defends strikes at 51 percent. Those aren’t the best striking numbers but Fili has fought good competition. Fili is a sharp counter striker, capable of landing knockouts with precise shots. He has good straight punches that complement his long frame and can also mix in some decent kicks.
I also consider Fili a competent grappler. He actually lands 2.17 takedowns per 15 minutes and I consider him an underrated offensive wrestler. He has a really good double leg. I don’t consider Fili’s top game all that great. However, he can hold position against weak grapplers.
Defensively, Fili is decent as a wrestler. He defends takedowns at 70 percent and is a capable scrambler once taken down. Good wrestlers like Bryce Mitchell can have success against Fili. However, I think average or below-average grapplers will generally be neutralized by Fili.
My main concern with Fili is his chin / age. He has been knocked out in two of his last three losses including a first round knockout in his most recent loss against Dan Ige. However, to be fair to him, he has only been knocked out twice in the last ten years which spans 17 fights which honestly kind of surprised me. He was also recently submitted by Costa though and kind of looked lost on the feet. I just think Fili is probably past his prime a little bit although I don’t think he is completely washed.
As far as this matchup goes, I do favor Rodriguez a bit. The big advantage Rodriguez has is durability. Rodriguez is very durable and Fili has been getting knocked out and hurt a lot lately. Perhaps Fili’s poor chin won’t come into play here as Rodriguez hasn’t even landed a knockdown in the UFC. However, Rodriguez has stung many guys and I still think Rodriguez is more likely to hurt Fili than vice versa. The striking other than that is probably somewhat competitive though.
I think the area Rodriguez might sneakily have an advantage is the wrestling. Rodriguez is so hard to take and hold down and I don’t think Fili can really consolidate any top position against Rodriguez, even if Fili landed a takedown or two.
Rodriguez on the other hand actually has been landing takedowns. He landed 6 against Costa and 2 against Bashi. He also landed 3 against Saaiman. Usually Rodriguez is the one defending takedowns so he hasn’t had many opportunities to even go for takedowns in many matchups. However, Costa and Saaiman are really the only two non-wrestlers he has faced, and he landed 3 and 6 takedowns. I actually think Rodriguez can take Fili down and maybe have some mild to moderate success.
So overall, I think Rodriguez is the side. Perhaps Fili can win a competitive striking decision. However, that is a narrow path to victory and a fight that Rodriguez can win too. I think Rodriguez has more additional paths to victory like wrestling and winning by finish more often. So Rodriguez is the pick.
—
On DraftKings, I guess I like Rodriguez a little more than I expected to at 8.4k.
He’s priced very cheaply and has plenty of win equity for this price. More importantly, he has sneaky wrestling equity and finishing equity.
I don’t feel great about either, and if he simply wins a striking based decision, with a couple of takedowns mixed in, he’ll likely bust. But 4-6 takedowns aren’t completely out of reach, nor is Rodriguez hurting Fili.
And the combination of those things just make Rodriguez an acceptable target. He is only +195 to win ITD so it’s tough to really bet on the finish, but I can see Rodriguez exceeding value and competing with the optimal due to pricing.
Having near-field exposure makes sense.
Fili at 7.8k is tougher to call because I do think he can win the fight.
Rodriguez isn’t really guaranteed wrestling success and it’s quite possible Fili is just the better round winning striker. At the same time, I’m still not sure if he carries upside and at 7.8k, he doesn’t save enough salary to be the only dog in your lineup.
By default, on a slate with little dog win equity, having a fighter who is in the matchup from a math perspective makes sense. I consider Fili a fine secondary target and a striking based decision with a takedown mixed in seems quite possible.
But I can’t say I will choose to prioritize him, with capped wrestling equity, and a +650 ITD line.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Rodriguez by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Miles Johns vs. Jean Matsumoto
Fight Odds: Matsumoto -304, Johns +250
Odds to end ITD: +195
DraftKings Salaries: Matsumoto 8.5k, Johns 7.7k
Weight Class: 135
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a decent bantamweight matchup here between Jean Matsumoto and Miles Johns.
Matsumoto is kind of a freestyle fighter, but I think he is best as a striker. He lands 5.18 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 5.40 in return. He is somewhat technical and powerful as a striker. He can put together some crisp boxing combinations, has a little power, and has some good low kicks. He also has decent volume and is aggressive with good cardio. He also seems very tough and hits pretty hard. He is a fun fighter to watch.
I still think Matsumoto is a bit hittable for my liking, but I do think he can outstrike the low to mid tier fighters in this division no problem. He just takes a decent amount of shots and even Katona busted him up. He did lose to Rob Font recently but it was a very competitive matchup.
Matsumoto can also occasionally land takedowns and he has a dangerous guillotine choke. He lands 2.73 takedowns per 15 minutes but I don’t think his top control is great.
I question the defensive wrestling of Matsumoto to a degree. I have seen this guy taken down a lot against somewhat weak wrestlers, and Argueta had a lot of success as well. His takedown defense isn’t terrible though and occasionally he can put together a decent sprawl or threaten with a guillotine. His TDD isn’t good though either at 57 percent, and I have seen him controlled for stretches in fights.
He at least works up and is physical though and is always resisting, which can cause opponents to tire. Good grapplers can probably take advantage of him but average grapplers will probably struggle and I do think his defensive wrestling looked improved vs Katona.
I like Matsumoto though. I have come around on him. He is a tough guy with some good volume, low kicks, cardio, and toughness. He is also pretty dangerous and fights very hard.
Matsumoto will be taking on Miles Johns. Johns is a decent fighter. He is a serviceable striker. He lands 3.16 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.65 in return. He defends strikes at a good 67 percent. He generally just does a good job staying out of danger. He also has a bit of pop and has won by knockout a couple of times in the UFC.
I am still not completely sold on Johns as a striker though. He hasn’t really outstruck any good strikers. He also has a hard time when opponents pressure him or push a pace as he either gasses or just gets overwhelmed, and ends up losing. He almost seems to have to fight at his own striking pace to win.
Johns is a decent wrestler and comes from a wrestling background. However, he is only landing 0.92 takedowns per 15 minutes, and attempting about three takedowns per fight. So you can’t really rely on his wrestling all that much.
Johns is still a solid wrestler though and defends takedowns at 81 percent.
As far as this matchup goes, I have to pick Matsumoto because he fights at a higher pace and is more durable than Johns. Johns may be a bit better defensively but I expect Matsumoto to go after Johns, and those are the fighters that Johns generally struggles with. Johns has only landed more than 50 significant strikes one time in 11 UFC fights. I just think Johns will probably get gas pedaled at some point and succumb to the volume and pressure of Matsumoto.
I also don’t trust Johns to land takedowns or control Matsumoto either. So if Johns doesn’t land a random knockout, I just don’t see where his offense comes from as he never puts up a lot of strikes or takedowns.
I just trust Matsumoto’s striking consistency, cardio, and toughness more than Johns. I expect Matsumoto to just march Johns down. There will probably be competitive moments but eventually I think it is likely that Matsumoto pulls away.
—
On DraftKings, I don’t mind Matsumoto, but I’m not sold on his upside in this matchup.
I honestly like Matsumoto to win this fight at a pretty high rate. There’s some mild concerns on Johns taking him down, but I’m skeptical Johns can hold him down for long periods of time. And on the feet, Matsumoto is better and higher paced.
From a fantasy standpoint, the biggest issue is that Matsumoto may not want to wrestle. He just landed seven takedowns and scored 84 points in a loss, but Johns is a decent wrestler himself and defending at 81 percent. If Matsumoto only lands 0-2 takedowns, his upside is more limited.
That would also put him into a bucket of essentially needing a knockout to clear the optimal lineup, even at 8.5k. Matsumoto is +240 to win ITD which is OK, and Johns has been knocked down a couple of times.
Matsumoto is obviously priced well at 8.5k which puts him into salary relief territory. He’s fairly safe in my opinion, and I wouldn’t be surprised if I end up with secondary exposure because of it.
However, I just don’t love the matchup from a ceiling standpoint. Johns is defensively sound and slower paced. I can see Matsumoto getting the KO but I don’t really want to bet on it, especially early in the fight. So I won’t prioritize Matsumoto personally and will likely only be rostering him when I need some additional salary relief.
Johns at 7.7k is viable.
Despite me thinking Matsumoto wins fairly often, Johns is actually a credible UFC level talent and he has some wrestling in his game. It’s enough to at least give him some decision equity, and on a slate where we might see zero dog wins, that has viability.
Additionally, on a slate where we might see zero dog wins, floor becomes more important. And I suppose Johns has one of the better chances to score points in a decision.
At 7.7k, I think there’s secondary merit for Johns. He’s still a little bit more expensive than I’d like to pay, and I still have ceiling concerns with a +725 ITD line.
Johns is kind of meh, overall. I wouldn’t be surprised if he lands 2-3 takedowns and makes a round or two competitive, but I am not excited about his win chances in general and I’d still probably rather pay down if forced to choose.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Matsumoto by Decision (Confidence=Medium)
Eryk Anders vs. Christian Leroy Duncan
Fight Odds: Duncan -534, Anders +410
Odds to end ITD: +130
DraftKings Salaries: Duncan 9.2k, Anders 7k
Weight Class: 185
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a super random middleweight matchup here as Christian Leroy Duncan will be taking on Eryk Anders.
Duncan is a British fighter who is 11-2 professionally with his first 7 fights taking place in Cage Warriors, a decent regional promotion.
Duncan is a striker who is dangerous at range. He doesn’t look to grapple much. He switches stances and mixes in a lot of kicks. He controls range pretty well and has knockout power. He is a bit hittable, and I do think as he gets steps up in competition, his striking will probably be exposed. However, I do think he can win fights on the feet at this level and he is certainly dangerous. He is now 4-2 in the UFC and is landing 4.75 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.01. Most of his wins have come vs extremely poor competition though.
Duncan also has decent first layer TDD. It isn’t perfect, and he did get taken down and controlled a bit vs Gregory Rodrigues. I have seen him held down here and there in other matchups too. Even Petrosyan took him down. However, he is tough to actually ground and keep grounded. I think he can mitigate the grappling of plenty of guys and is currently defending takedowns at 72 percent. Above average grapplers can have success against him though and he does get clinched up a bit.
Overall Duncan is a fun action fighter who will have some fun striking battles in this division and he is certainly a knockout threat. He mixes in some flashy strikes, and has a lot of power and will be a good guy to have on fight night cards.
Duncan will be taking on UFC veteran Eryk Anders. Anders is kind of a freestyle fighter who will strike a bit and occasionally look to land takedowns. Anders doesn’t always land a ton of offense which is why I am not high on him in general, but he is decent and is a physically strong dude.
Anders lands 3.54 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.05 in return. He defends strikes at 50 percent. Those are pretty bad metrics and I don’t consider Anders a very good striker. He is basically limited to his left hand. He is a tough and physical guy though so he can stay competitive in fights. He also has some power in his left hand and can hurt opponents. So he can kind of keep fights competitive on the feet and is a bit of a power threat. However, he isn’t a guy who is going to win clean rounds either. He has also been knocked down in his last three fights against somewhat poor competition, so his chin is a bit of a concern.
Anders lands 1.71 takedowns per 15 minutes and attempts about 6 takedowns per fight. I don’t consider him to be a great offensive wrestler but he is capable. I actually think he has a decent top game as he can use his physicality to stifle submissions and land ground and pound.
Anders is actually a decent defensive wrestler. He defends takedowns at a solid 80 percent and is generally hard to hold down on the mat.
As far as this matchup goes, I think I favor the youth, athleticism, and evasive striking game of Duncan who is 8 years younger than Anders.
On the feet, I think Duncan is the better round winning striker. He can probably skate around Anders and just outland him, and he will probably be the minute winner here. There is also a good chance Duncan hurts Anders too as Anders has been getting hurt a lot lately. Anders will honestly probably survive though and he is sneaky tough and has only been finished by TKO once in his career. Striking is high-variance though and I do think Anders could hurt Duncan. I wouldn’t count on it though.
Perhaps Anders could clinch Duncan up or land a takedown and have success. I honestly wouldn’t be that surprised if either thing happens. I do think this line is a bit wide and Anders has ways to stay competitive. Overall though, I don’t trust Anders’ wrestling enough to keep Duncan grounded. So Duncan will probably get enough striking time here where I do consider him superior. So Duncan is the pick.
—
On DraftKings, Duncan rates out as a reasonable contrarian option at 9.2k.
I really don’t expect him to be popular with the ownership flowing onto Walker and Smith above, and Hernandez, Medic and Erceg below. Plus, Duncan is completely boom or bust, who will need an early KO to contend for the optimal, and he’s just coming off a boring decision in which he showed no urgency against a worse opponent in Pulyaev.
Duncan is hard to prioritize for this reason, and ultimately, I won’t play a lot of him.
But with the drop in ownership, I can see the argument for using Duncan to be contrarian. He’s still +145 to win ITD against an opponent who’s been knocked down three times in a row.. so an early KO could come to fruition.
The lower the public ownership, the more I’m willing to take chances on Duncan winning by KO, but he’s a boom/bust option regardless.
Anders at 7k is probably the safest punt play of the slate.
You’re getting a fighter -160 to fight for three rounds, who can also land the occasional takedown. So if punt loser dog ends up optimal, I think Anders is among the top choices. He is also experienced and could fight competitively.
I also don’t think it’s a good matchup for him to accrue points, nor am I picking him to win. He could get hurt early. So it’s still a very meh play, and he has the worst ITD line of the group at +900.
Anders gets an uptick for floor at 7k but he’s a low-end target regardless.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Duncan by Decision (Confidence=Medium)
Julius Walker vs. Rafael Cerqueira
Fight Odds: Walker -650, Cerqueira +475
Odds to end ITD: -1000
DraftKings Salaries: Walker 9.4k, Cerquiera 6.8k
Weight Class: 205
We have a low-level light heavyweight scrap between Julius Walker and Rafael Cerquieira, who are both looking for their first UFC win.
Walker is 6-1 professionally at age 26, and he’s earned four wins by TKO and two by submission. He’s coming off the first pro loss of his career, which was a competitive decision against Alonzo Menifield, in his UFC debut on short notice.
In that sense, it’s not a loss that reflects super poorly on Walker. He fought hard and managed to land 86 significant strikes, but Menifield was a bit more effective at distance. Walker still clinched and held onto Menifield for 5+ minutes, but only was able to land 1/9 takedowns and couldn’t accrue enough top time to swing rounds.
I still think it’s difficult to tell how good Walker is, and I’m pretty uncomfortable with him being a heavy favorite in this spot.
Walker doesn’t have any deep MMA background and was a D2 basketball player at Drury, so although his athletic base is there, it’s not an ideal one for Mixed Martial Arts.
His regional competition has been pretty bad, and he even has three amateur losses in 2021, which all came by decision. In his latter regional career, he did beat a couple of decent names in Bevon Lewis and Nyle Bartling, but Lewis has imploded since leaving the UFC and the Bartling win was a mid-round guard sub in a fight that Bartling was winning.
The good news is that Walker is pretty active, and tries pretty hard. He is willing to attempt a lot of takedowns, and he’s pretty long for the division standing 6’4” with a 78-inch reach. His submission grappling skills are OK, and when he gets top position, he’ll definitely carry some finishing upside.
It’s just difficult to project Walker as a fighter who can land takedowns consistently at this level. He already failed in that aspect in his debut and on the regional scene, he’d get taken down without too much difficulty.
On the feet, Walker doesn’t have a massive sample of distance exchanges. He landed some flurries against Menifield but was still outlanded at distance 78-51, and he’s defending strikes in total at 40 percent. He does seem tough and tenacious but I worry about him getting hurt in the long run.
Overall, Walker rates out as the type to win ITD against lower level fighters, based on grappling and pace. But he’s not a phenomenal athlete, nor is he super skilled in any one area of the game, so he seems pretty defensively vulnerable to me.
Rafael Cerqueira has had an atrocious start to his UFC career, and has suffered first-round knockout losses to both Ibo Aslan and Modestas Bukauskas.
That now makes him 11-2 professionally at age 35, and he’s earned eight wins by knockout and two by submission.
Unfortunately, we were already desperate for fight footage from Cerqueira, of which there is almost none available from his regional scene, and a sub-one minute KO loss in his UFC debut certainly isn’t going to help the matter.
I thought we saw some better flashes from him against Bukauskas, but ultimately that fight ended in two minutes with Cerqueira getting blasted on and knocked unconscious.
At this point, it seems very likely that Cerqueira will continue to get dusted, and that’s clearly how the market perceives his chances. I’m still not ready to write him off completely.
He had been fighting weak competition on the Brazilian regional scene, but from what I can tell, Cerqueira is a capable offensive striker, who has a background in BJJ.
In his brief highlights, his kicks look pretty sharp, and he can attack the body and head. He will spin, throw some flying stuff, and he’s had success doing both.
There are a couple seconds of footage of him on the mat, including one where he’s locking up an arm-triangle and one where he’s holding onto a back ride. I haven’t really seen him shoot takedowns though and in the only full fight we have, he did not wrestle.
In his UFC debut, Aslan, who’s an aggressive early finisher, just bombed on Cerqueira immediately, while Cerqueira was stuck against the cage. He was definitely rocked for a second, but he was covering up well enough and he wasn’t knocked down. Aslan just threw a 35-punch combination of which 28 strikes landed while Cerqueira was covering up, and the ref was forced to step in.
Was it a great look? Clearly not. Is it meaningful in the sense that all of his fights will end in that fashion? I’m not sure.
Against Bukauskas, Cerquiera actually landed some clean strikes, and I thought had a real chance to hurt Bukauskas. Unfortunately, his defense didn’t hold up and Bukauskas cracked him as well, and followed up with big shots against the cage to put Cerqueira’s lights out.
And outside of the above information, we have almost nothing to work with, so we’re still forced to make many educated guesses.
For now, Cerqueira will just fall into a typical bucket of a fighter who I’d expect to have early success as his primary method of winning.
At age 35, I highly doubt he’s going to climb the rankings of the division. I’ve seen him face literally no adversity outside of these recent losses. Only one of his fights has gone the distance so I’m skeptical of his cardio as well.
He doesn’t seem like the most aggressive type though, so I’d actually guess maybe his cardio is OK. I really don’t know how impactful his striking will be at this level over the duration but kicking at range is a decent base. His ground game could be legit and he has a BJJ black belt, but I’m really unsure about his offensive or defensive wrestling.
It’s probably safe to assume that Cerqueira won’t hold up to any damage, and that this will be the last time we see him in the Octagon. We’re still working with super small samples though.
My primary concern in this matchup is that I think Cerqueira is clearly the more dangerous striker of the two. Walker may win on pure toughness and durability, but in a pure striking fight, I think Cerqueira is better.
Walker is probably the better wrestler of the two, but I’d also guess that on paper, Cerqueira is the better pure submission grappler. So it’s just tough to feel great about Walker as a -700 favorite.
Especially considering Walker has never won a decision himself, and has lost basically every time the fight has seen the cards, including as a pro and as an amateur. This feels like a decent spot for Cerqueira to showcase more skills, as Walker doesn’t profile to KO him immediately.
At the same time, I think it’s fair to assume Cerqueira will just wilt if he doesn’t get a quick finish. Maybe Walker can murder him too. And I’d guess Walker can take him down, and probably find a finish there as well. So I do understand favoring Walker in general.
My best guess is that Cerqueira will have some decent moments early, but once Walker gets in close, Walker will roll through him. An early-mid round finish seems the most realistic.
Skill for skill though, Walker really isn’t that great and I think Cerqueira is dangerous enough to land some strikes. Grappling is a bit of an unknown for him. There’s enough variance in a matchup like this where Cerqueira could easily show himself as the value side, but given what we have to work with, it’s impossible not to pick Walker.
—
On DraftKings, Walker is the most expensive fighter on the board at 9.4k, and he’ll clearly be in play.
I wouldn’t be all that surprised if Walker outright lost, but odds indicate the chances of that aren’t super high, and if he does win, it’s probably an early finish that could also come with grappling. So I have to like the ceiling.
Walker is -600 to win ITD which is an elite line and the best on the slate as well. That will draw a lot of attention.
It may be tough to pay up to Walker with the lack of dogs, but at the same time, I think a lot of folks will look for a cheap dog since even the most expensive dogs don’t rate out well. And Walker feels like a bit of a standout within the top tier from a finishing perspective.
As much as I have concerns, I’ll probably be high on Walker this week. His ITD metrics are too strong, and he can score well with pace wrestling. There is simply a lot of variance to the matchup and I don’t think he’s a for sure lock, but if Walker wins, it seems likely he will surpass 100 points and contend for the optimal lineup.
Cerqueira at 6.8k is viable in my opinion, and I probably like him more than the field will.
Obviously he’s cheap, and should carry major leverage against Walker. He’s also very likely to win ITD early if he wins at all. Plus, Walker really isn’t that great and kind of profiles longer term as a guy who may get finished in losses.
Cerqueira rates out horribly with a +700 ITD line, and I don’t think it’s smart to load up on him. He’s only a dart throw really. But one that I do think has some sneaky merit, given the upside and variance within this kind of matchup.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Walker by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium)
Elijah Smith vs. Toshiomi Kazama
Fight Odds: Smith -717, Kazama +522
Odds to end ITD: -400
DraftKings Salaries: Smith 9.3k, Kazama 6.9k
Weight Class: 135
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
Elijah Smith will be looking for his second UFC win on Saturday as he takes on Toshiomi Kazama.
Smith is an American fighter who is 8-1 professionally and 22 years old. He won a decision on the Contender Series where he struck competitively with his opponent and both fighters landed about 75 significant strikes. However, Smith mixed in five additional takedowns and was awarded the decision win. He really slowed down in that fight though.
Smith then fought Vince Morales in his UFC debut. Both guys landed 40 significant strikes. Smith landed three takedowns while Morales landed two. It was a competitive fight and Smith was given the win. Smith showed decent takedown defense in that fight but he was still taken down and put in some tough front choke positions.
Smith comes from a wrestling background and is a decent athlete. He is an okay wrestler, and has some decent shots and is explosive. I still don’t consider him a great wrestler though and he will be limited to defeating weak grapplers at bantamweight. He does look to wrestle in fights in general.
Smith can also strike a bit. He can semi control range and mix in straight punches and kicks, and he has some speed. He also has a little bit of power as well. He still isn’t a good striker either though and he is very green. I also question his volume. He also really tired out in that Contender Series fight and I question his cardio.
Smith will be taking on Japanese fighter Toshiomi Kazama. Kazama made his UFC debut on the Road to the UFC final against Rinya Nakamura. Kazama was knocked out in round one but there is no shame in that as Nakamura is a great athlete and a powerhouse. Kazama then lost by first round KO to Garrett Armfield. He most recently won by submission against Charlampos Grigoriou, which was one year ago.
Kazama is 11-4 professionally and is basically a grappler. Most of his wins come on the mat and generally by submission. I consider him a decent grappler. He has okay takedowns, and I do like his tenacity. He is constantly looking to grapple and gives his opponents no space to operate. Kazama can also grapple hard for 15 minutes and is submission capable on the mat. I like his cardio.
My issue with Kazama’s grappling is that I don’t actually think his takedowns are that good. He can also be taken down himself and controlled. However, he does at least try to attack off his back and sweep. Kazama still is tenacious though and I do like his cardio.
Kazama rarely strikes, and he doesn’t look too comfortable there. He was knocked out in his last three losses. I haven’t seen Kazama strike often but it probably isn’t good as he looks scared to strike and only looks to close distance and try to grapple. My guess is that he is a liability on the feet and it certainly looks that way.
As far as this matchup goes, I understand why Smith is a big favorite. Smith is definitely the better striker here and honestly has a good chance of knocking Kazama out early. When they are fresh and standing, Smith is the better striker. I also think when these guys are fresh that Smith is a better wrestler. So Smith should have a lot of success early and he may get it done inside the first round.
I still think this line might be wide though. I do think Kazama has some advantages. Kazama clearly has better cardio and I could really see Kazama having success later in this fight. Kazama will surely have issues early but if he just survives then he can probably tire Smith out by being tenacious.
If Kazama gets on a tired Smith, I actually think Kazama is a better submission grappler and could maybe finish Smith. So I do think Kazama has a shot here.
The issue is that Kazama very well may get knocked out early and he will probably get beat up early regardless of who wins the fight. I will pick Smith here, but I still believe the line is wide.
—
On DraftKings, Smith is priced up to 9.3k and will likely need an early finish.
This is a tough one because I’m not that high on Smith, and I wasn’t surprised that he nearly lost his UFC debut to Morales. I don’t particularly want to invest in him.
However, Kazama is pretty shaky himself, and it definitely seems plausible he gets knocked out early, or outwrestled. Either form of win could give Smith a strong score.
I still am not sure I want to buy into Smith here. Largely, there’s a conversation to be had as to whether Walker is a superior target directly above him. And then you have heavy favorites in the lower 9ks and upper 8ks who are arguably superior for price.
Smith is -290 to win ITD though, so his finishing metrics are very strong. Pair that with grappling equity and a weak opponent, and Smith is going to rate out well. If you have the ability to pay up, he should be in consideration and he makes for a solid pivot off Walker.
I just don’t love his fighter profile personally, and probably won’t aim to be high on Smith at 9.3k. He’s not enough of a powerhouse striker for me to be sure he wins by quick KO, and even as a wrestler, he can get tired and taken down himself, so it still feels like there are plenty of ways for this to go wrong.
If the public is off Smith and he ends up semi-contrarian, he’ll be an extra solid target, but I lean against making Smith a real priority.
Kazama is a fine punt at 6.9k.
He’s at least digestible in the sense that he’s coming off a submission win, which scored 102 DK points, and Smith was just put in some bad spots on the mat by Morales. So I do see a path for Kazama.
He’s also a big dog, and only +650 to win ITD in this matchup so it’s tough to be too excited.
I really don’t mind taking deep shots this week given the slate dynamic and Kazama at least carries some grappling upside against an opponent who I question long term. I don’t see a ton of process in his game though and wouldn’t consider him to carry much of a floor.
So Kazama is still ultimately a dart throw. I won’t be too invested in him personally but I don’t mind taking the occasional punt for salary relief.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Smith by Decision (Confidence=Medium)
Joselyne Edwards vs. Priscila Cachoeira
Fight Odds: Edwards -385, Cachoeira +309
Odds to end ITD: Over 2.5 Rounds -180
DraftKings Salaries: Edwards 8.6k, Cachoeira 7.6k
Weight Class: 135
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a fun matchup here between Joselyne Edwards and Priscila Cachoeira.
Edwards is an okay range striker. She lands 4.62 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.20 in return. She has had some decent volume performances. She landed 88 significant strikes against Wu Yanan, 164 significant strikes against Ramona Pascual, and 101 against Kim.
Edwards likes to utilize kicks to the body to score points, and clear distance and manage range. Managing range is probably what she does best. I don’t trust her as much in boxing range. She does have a little pop too and can hurt opponents.
Edwards has had defensive wrestling issues in the UFC. She isn’t completely awful as a defensive wrestler and defends takedowns at 61 percent. However, she is just very green off her back and is a candidate to continue to be controlled on the mat.
Edwards is actually not bad if she gets top position though. She can get hooks in and threaten on top and land GNP. She lands 1.31 takedowns per 15 minutes. She landed five takedowns against Nora Cornolle and four against Tamires Vidal. She can outwrestle weak competition.
Edwards will be taking on Priscila Cachoeira who is coming off of a first round knockout against Josiane Nunes.
Cachoeira is a hilarious fighter. She is basically a striker with zero defense whatsoever. Her entire goal is to march her opponent down, take a shot (or seven) to land one of her own with the hope of hurting her opponent or just exhausting / overwhelming them with her pressure.
Cachoeira lands 4.03 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 7.15 in return. She defends strikes at 43 percent lol. She does have power though and has won by first round knockout in her last two victories against Ariane da Silva and Josiane Nunes. She is kind of underrated physically, and below-average fighters seem to have issues with her size and power at times.
Cachoeira defends takedowns at 65 percent and has only landed one takedown in the UFC. So she is really just interested in fighting on the feet.
Cahoeira’s main weakness is her defensive grappling. She has lost on the mat in her last three losses against Jasmine Jasudavicius, Miranda Maverick, and Gillian Robertson. Those are great grapplers though and I do think Cachoeira has decent first layer takedown defense. Decent grapplers can obviously have success against Cachoeira. However, it isn’t like she is getting beat on the mat by anyone terrible either.
As far as this matchup goes, I do think Edwards is a more technical fighter and striker. Edwards is also a better grappler and could probably land takedowns and have success in top position. I think picking Edwards for those reasons is fine. There is a good chance Edwards just keeps it technical standing, mixes in takedowns, etc. Edwards also has sneaky finishing upside here, just because Cachoeira is a liability defensively. It wouldn’t shock me if Edwards won by knockout or finished Cachoeira on the mat.
I still am a little nervous for Edwards though. I don’t think Edwards is actually a good grappler and is nowhere near the level of the girls who have been beating Cachoeira on the mat.
There is a realistic chance that Edwards doesn’t easily land takedowns and gets stuck striking with Cachoeira who is very dangerous and aggressive. I think it is fair to favor Edwards on the feet due to technicality, but I also think it is fair to favor Cachoeira standing based on physicality, aggression, and power. The striking is honestly probably close. So I could see this getting interesting. I think this could be a super violent fight as well, as Cachoeira always brings it.
—
On DraftKings, I’m primarily interested in Edwards at 8.6k.
She’s lined north of -350 to win with lots of grappling equity (potentially), and she’s only priced at 8.6k so she will rate out as a massive value.
I do think there are many bust cases though. Basically, Edwards needs to grapple. In a pure striking fight, she may land a ton of shots but 120 sig. strikes in a decision is only 78 DK points.
Edwards is coming off two ground based finishes in a row that scored 120 and 109 DK points, which gives me a lot of hope, especially as it’s obvious where Cachoeira is weak. I don’t fully trust Edwards to smash on the ground, but she likely will try, and that’s enough at this price in this kind of matchup. Edwards is also +160 to win ITD which is decent for this price.
Edwards will probably be chalky given the situation and her price point, but I’m OK with targeting her moderately. There are plenty of fighters priced above her who I like or who could be prioritized, but Edwards fits into most constructions very nicely and I think by default, she’s worth a solid investment.
Cachoeira at 7.6k is viable but I don’t love her.
I do think the most likely outcome is that she gets outgrappled and loses cleanly. And in her last three losses, Cachoeira has not topped 10 DK points.
However, if she can defend takedowns or scramble up, suddenly, Cachoeira is very live. She can land a lot of strikes and she may even have knockout upside. She’s only +600 to win ITD but we’ve seen her win by KO on enough occasions now to make me think she can hurt anyone in this division if she lands the right shot.
Cachoeira really isn’t my favorite type of target. Her floor is weak, she probably loses, and she’s a huge dog.
There is some chance that she simply defends takedowns though, in which case, this becomes a much more winnable, and high-action fight. I think having low-end secondary exposure to Cachoeira for that circumstance makes sense.
But I’ll still end up relatively light on Cachoeira on the whole, given her profile.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Edwards by RNC, RD 3 (Confidence=Medium)
Uros Medic vs. Gilbert Urbina
Fight Odds: Medic -428, Urbina +339
Odds to end ITD: -800
DraftKings Salaries: Medic 8.9k, Urbina 7.3k
Weight Class: 170
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Uros Medic is a Contender Series alum from the 2020 season who came into the promotion with a healthy amount of hype. While still only being 32, he hasn’t really lived up to original expectation and has also been plagued with injuries – he’s 4-3 in the UFC and 10-3 as a pro. Gilbert Urbina was on the TUF 29 season where he got bounced out in the semifinals by Tresean Gore, but Gore got hurt so he filled in to fight in the finals where he lost to Bryan Battle. Similar to his matchup counterpart, he’s gotten bit by the injury bug so he hasn’t been very active since joining the roster – he’s 1-2 in the UFC and 7-3 as a pro.
The striking component:
Medic stands southpaw and comes from a kickboxing background where he’s shown aggressive/explosive components in both his punches and kicks.
He bounces in and out of the pocket well but can be over-aggressive and slightly off balanced at times. But his accuracy is on point with his best weapons being his lead hook, straight left and body kicks.
In general, the majority of his fights have ended in the first round so there isn’t a ton of footage available of him in extended striking exchanges. He fought on Contenders and in his debut where he KO’d two grapplers which was kind of meaningless.
But when he fought an actual UFC caliber striker, he got pieced up to both the body and the head by Turner – granted a forgivable loss hindsight 20/20.
However, he had a pretty competitive scrap with Morales who’s a respectable kickboxer. Medic hurt him in the 2nd round and finished him off – impressive being the 1st guy to KO Morales at the time.
He had early struggles with the pressure straight shots of Semelsberger. But he survived the KD in the 1st, had a competitive round in the 2nd which he edged and really swung the fight in the 3rd, finishing Semelsberger off. It was a good fight for reference that Medic can fight into the 3rd round.
He had Orolbai in some trouble early and was able to put down Means with a well-placed uppercut. But he’s coming off getting blasted by Soriano in just 30 seconds earlier this year.
Overall, Medic is a fluid/dangerous striker but has also shown some fragility through his shorter career.
Urbina was a lanky 185er but even more so now back down at 170, standing 6’3” with a 75” reach.
Back on the regionals, he hadn’t faced much adversity outside of the Brady fight where he got pot shotted. Then on TUF against Gore, he was at a pretty big speed disadvantage and got dropped three times, ultimately getting finished in the 2nd round.
So despite being a long guy, he has struggled to use his length well with consistency and doesn’t possess much footwork which has made it easier for guys to track him down – one of my bigger pet peeves in analyzing fighters.
He got outlanded by Battle but the bulk of those were kicks and did well in original clinching positions. I thought he looked sharp in his outing against Cosce though where he did some solid body work but also faced very little back his way and did get hit clean in the times Cosce did come forward.
But we saw some of those defensive issues rear head last time out against Radtke where he got walked down, struggled with Radtke’s boxing and eventually was put down with a left hook.
Overall, while I’ve seen some good from Urbina standing, he just doesn’t project to win striking fights at the UFC level given his lack of defense and dodgy durability.
How it plays out: Off the top, Urbina will realize a size advantage of 2” in height and 4” in reach. However, in watching both guys, it’s fairly straightforward as to who the better pure striker is and that’s Medic – there’s just more process to his striking, he’s cleaner, more technical and has a lot rawer knockout power. Both guys haven’t been as effective when put on the back foot though where they’ve had most of their success when they come forward. While I don’t think Urbina is great and he doesn’t have the same amount of power as the guys who have hurt Medic in the past, it isn’t out of the realm that he could hurt Medic. But I still like Medic a fair amount standing.
The wrestling/grappling component:
In the limited ground footage we have on Medic, he’s had some struggles.
Back regionally, it was when he was over aggressive on pocket entry that guys were able to duck under and hit TDs.
To which, he’s been controlled a bit on the ground but isn’t a guy who “accepts” being on bottom necessarily. He’ll look to work back up or will be aggressive in attacking submissions.
He does have two triangle choke victories on his record in those fights when he’s been taken down, so he does possess some BJJ acumen and a longer frame.
But he did get stuck on his back for some periods of time against pretty horrible guys.
Against Turner, he got grinded a bit early off a caught kick but was able to eventually work up – he ultimately got hurt on the feet to where he then gave the neck up – no real shame as Turner’s club and subbed numerous opponents.
Semelsberger briefly got him down, but Medic was able to work up quickly – he also up-kicked his way up after being knocked down early in the fight. Most recently, he got grinded on by Orolbai conceding seven TDs and was eventually submitted in the 2nd round – he was working up early but just couldn’t keep Orolbai off him.
Overall, our sample is still smaller for Medic in recent years but the floor projects to be where his main struggles will still lie and he hasn’t shown much offensive wrestling upside throughout his career.
Urbina’s a BJJ purple belt circa 2018 but he very well could’ve leveled up in the last seven years – just couldn’t confirm.
In that, most of his fights hit the floor and four of his eight pro wins (if you include TUF) have come on the ground – three via submission, one via ground and pound.
His wrestling seems okay but nothing special as he’s more of a transitional guy to the back. When on the ground, he’s shown good passing abilities and a willingness to attack from there.
However, I’ve also seen him lose position on numerous occasions as well primarily via opponents spinning in his guard.
But I would say his grappling is the best part of his game and is the main way he’s winning his fights.
He did have struggles with the wrestling of Brady but also did a good job of nullifying hooks or super dominate positions and was able to work up to the feet throughout the fight. He ran through Gilmore on the floor. He ultimately got his back taken by Battle in the 2nd round and succumbed to an RNC, but he was getting the better of the ground exchanges up until he got tired and made mistakes.
More recently, Urbina outwrestled Cosce who does come from a wrestling background and nearly finished him at the end of the 1st round which I thought was a good look at the time – although the Cosce brothers turned out to be massive frauds so contextually not very impressive.
Overall, he’s a capable ground fighter but he’s shown some wishy-washy/trade position components and isn’t a very good defensive wrestler.
How it plays out: This is where I’d see more potential merit to Urbina. While he’s not a great wrestler, he’s not incapable of landing TDs and Medic is only stuffing at 55% through his documented run. Medic has given the back up in a handful of fights as well so Urbina getting there wouldn’t necessarily be shocking – granted I don’t put his ground game on the level of a Jalin Turner or Orolbai.
I’ve never really been an Urbina guy as he just doesn’t rate out as a long term UFC talent – if he loses on Saturday he’ll probably get cut as well. Conversely, I’ve always had my skepticism with Medic because he came from a pretty dodgy regional scene and he’s shown some flakey components now throughout his run. In terms of the matchup, Medic really should put a guy like Urbina down in my opinion but as noted, there are ways for the fight to go wrong for Medic so I can’t say my opinion is “passionate” towards him this week.
—
On DraftKings, this is another viable matchup and another matchup that’s expected to end inside the distance.
Medic is priced up to 8.9k and is yet another massive value, sitting near -450 to win with a -325 ITD which is elite.
The primary concern or problem with Medic in this spot is that I’d label it very boom or bust. He doesn’t project to land takedowns so he essentially needs an early knockout. While I do understand him as a moderate/heavy favorite, there is just a lot of variance in striking exchanges.
Additionally, Medic is used to being a tall, long guy, and perhaps Urbina having size advantages against him will give Medic some problems. Plus Urbina’s grappling as an X factor.
So generally, I think Medic is a really strong upside target at 8.9k. He’s very affordable with elite ITD metrics. He can be prioritized, though without an early knockout, I don’t think he clears the optimal lineup.
Urbina at 7.3k is one underdog I’m willing to target, for the reasons mentioned above.
Probably the worst case scenario is that he gets a striking fight, of which he is taller and longer than Medic. And Medic has been dropped in two of his last four fights.
In the best case scenario, Urbina is able to land 2-3 takedowns and potentially threaten on the mat. Urbina also has a +425 ITD line which is OK given the context of the slate.
It’s really tough to be high on Urbina. He’s simply not very good and I do think Medic is a class above him as a striker. Urbina won’t carry any floor either and may just get shut out.
I can at least see a win condition for him though and some upside, so that’s enough to make him viable on this type of slate. I wouldn’t mind being a bit overweight to Urbina personally but on paper he’s not drastically better/worse than many fighters surrounding him in price.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Medic by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium)
Gabriella Fernandes vs. Julija Stoliarenko
Fight Odds: Fernandes -443, Stoliarenko +349
Odds to end ITD: -215
DraftKings Salaries: Fernandes 8.8k, Stoliarenko 7.4k
Weight Class: 125
Gabriella Fernandes will look to make it three in a row as she takes on Julija Stoliarenko this weekend.
Fernandes has turned the tide of her career a bit after losing back-to-back fights to start her UFC tenure. She’s now picked up two wins in a row, including a huge upset in China against Wang Cong last November.
Fernandes is primarily a striker, and I expect she will continue to have success in pure kickboxing fights. She’s a good athlete and can throw with power, and her volume is pretty reasonable.
At her best, Fernandes can control distance well, fight moving forward and backward, and she’s dangerous with both her hands and her kicks.
We’ve only seen two pure striking fights from Fernandes in the UFC though, and she still looked shaky in both. She was able to edge out a split decision against Carli Judice, though Judice outlanded her 169-119. More recently, Cong outlanded Fernandes 46-18, but Fernandes caught her in the second round and was able to jump on the back and lock up a RNC.
It was a big surprise, especially given how poor Fernandes has looked on the mat. It’s been a major downfall of hers, both outside of the UFC and in her short promotional career.
She now defends takedowns at 60 percent, and has given up 4, 3, and 2 takedowns to her first three opponents. Both Jasudaviscius and Bleda were able to hold her down long enough to win rounds, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see that trend continue.
Overall, Fernandes is going to have success at the mid or lower levels of this division when she can get striking fights. She throws enough volume to win rounds, and is effective enough to have occasional big moments.
But she has not necessarily been a stand out even from that sense, and her lack of defensive wrestling and grappling is a major concern that will clearly limit her ceiling potential.
Next Fernandes will take on Julija Stoliarenko, who is coming off an ugly loss to Luana Carolina in February 2024.
It marked the 6th loss for Stoliarenko in the UFC, where she now holds a 2-6 record, with both wins coming by first-round armbar. That’s no real surprise, as Stoliarenko holds 10 of her 11 pro wins by submission, and nearly all of them are first-round armbars.
In her last two losses, Stoliarenko has actually chased the takedown and had success, but she simply couldn’t land the armbar. Chelsea Chandler was able to reverse position, get on top and pound her out on the mat, and Carolina took her down and did the same.
Stoliarenko isn’t an awful striker but she can’t really string together three rounds. She’s only landing 2.49 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 4.54 per minute with a 46 percent defensive rate.
While I do see improvements in her wrestling, Stoliarenko still only averages 0.93 takedowns per 15 minutes, which isn’t great. Her ability to transition to that armbar is legit, but that’s the only real UFC level skill she carries.
Clearly, there isn’t enough process in Stoliarenko’s game to succeed longterm. And against Fernandes, I have to imagine that Stoliarenko needs early ground success to carry her to victory again.
If this fight plays out on the feet, Fernandes should have the advantage. Fernandes is the more effective striker, and should throw significantly more volume over the course of 15 minutes.
Stoliarenko may be able to hang on, but it’s still likely she gets significantly outpaced and loses 120-50, or something like that, on the total strike counts. Fernandes may even have knockout upside.
Even as a defensive wrestler, Stoliarenko may not hold up. Fernandes doesn’t wrestle much, but she did takedown Judice twice, and Stoliarenko has been finished on the ground with strikes in both of her last two losses.
Fernandes may actually have finishing upside on the mat here. If she wrestles, I could see Fernandes beating Stoliarenko up from top position, or even choking her out. She probably won’t wrestle though.
Stoliarenko very likely will wrestle, given Fernandes’ weaknesses. Honestly, I think Stoliarenko probably can take her down. But she isn’t a great control fighter and will just immediately shoot for that armbar, so it puts her in a position of either getting it, or failing and inevitably losing.
Fernandes at least has survived on the mat to Jasmine and Bleda, and I would guess she can survive here too. Stoliarenko has a legit dangerous armbar though, so that outcome is live. It just has to happen quickly or I doubt she’ll produce enough offense to win multiple rounds.
—
On DraftKings, Fernandes seems like a solid contrarian target.
With only 11 fights on the slate, nobody will be completely overlooked. But Fernandes has only scored 88 and 94 in her two wins, and priced at 8.8k, I doubt she’ll be a focal point for the public.
From a projection standpoint, she doesn’t rate out that well either. She may not wrestle at all, and there’s no guarantee of a knockout. But Fernandes is actually -160 to win ITD, and as I noted, she might actually have a bit of wrestling equity herself.
I still find it difficult to click on Fernandes often, but I can at least get behind her for the price as a secondary target. She has more finishing equity than the mid-tier fighters, against an opponent who’s been finished in 3/6 UFC losses.
It’s tough to be sure how this fight will look and I do think there’s significant risk of the fight extending, and Fernandes failing to reach 90 points. But her ITD metrics are surprisingly strong and if she can win in dominant fashion, she can exceed value and contend for the optimal lineup. I don’t mind her on this slate.
Stoliarenko is actually one dog I’m willing to take a shot on at 7.4k.
At least, Stoliarenko may have a decent shot to land one takedown, which means she’ll try for one armbar. That’s often all she needs to win. So I could see it. And if she does win, she’ll likely score 90+ points.
Stoliarenko is only +575 to win ITD and isn’t a very good fighter. I don’t feel super comfortable with her and wouldn’t want to be much overweight to the field.
But this is low level WMMA and Stoliarenko is capable of landing 1-2 takedowns, where Fernandes has issues. I can at least justify a path to victory for her, and one that might score well.
Stoliarenko is mostly a low-end secondary target but one I’m willing to mix in given the situation.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Fernandes by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium)
Cody Brundage vs. Eric McConico
Fight Odds: Brundage -158, McConico +135
Odds to end ITD: Under 1.5 RDs -135
DraftKings Salaries: Brundage 8.2k, McConico 8k
Weight Class: 205
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Eric McConico got a bit of a later start to his MMA career where he’s bounced around different regional scenes since turning pro back in 2018. He was riding a 5-fight win streak prior to dropping his short notice UFC debut earlier this year– he’s 9-3-1 as a pro. Cody Brundage failed in his Contender Series opportunity back in 2020 but was brought into the UFC the following year as a short notice fill and has shockingly been able to keep a roster spot – he’s 5-5-1 (1 NC) in the UFC and 11-6-1 (1 NC) as a pro. This is an impromptu booking thrown together just a few days ago and neither guy had anything booked, so the fight will be up at 205 lbs.
The striking component:
McConico is more of your cross over athlete type as he played running back in college but transitioned to MMA after.
He’s not the tallest middleweight out there at 6’ but stands southpaw and possesses a 75” reach. His striking style resembles one of a conventional kickboxer.
He’s not a particularly high volume guy but is relatively technical in his approach with solid 1-2s and kicks to both the body and head – his head kicks are nasty specifically as he’s hurt multiple opponents with them and has even landed through opponents’ guards – like guys can still block them but they’re getting wobbled at the same time which shows how impactful they are.
He’s been able to dictate many of the exchanges in his fights and outland his opponents.
However, he has gotten overconfident in the pocket at times where opponents have been able to counter or buckle him when getting a bit too overzealous. But his general defense at range is okay and he largely rolls with shots well.
However, he has been finished via strikes in all three of his pro losses though which needs to be noted – I wasn’t able to view the first two and they came 5+ years ago but obviously the length and timing gave him issues in his debut against Ruziboev, which hindsight was a tough matchup for him and he was eventually put down.
Overall, McConico’s a decent striker with some power but his durability is of some concern – although I have seen him fight through adversity multiple times.
Brundage is a wrestler by base who’s boxing is okay but relatively basic, largely just throwing jabs, overhands and the occasional leg kick.
He has six pro wins via KO/TKO and will commit to his overhand right where he KO’d Gore, dropped Vieira and more recently put down Marquez, but he hasn’t shown much in terms of stringing stuff together.
We did see some extended exchanges between him and Kropschot in his last LFA fight where he got the better of the exchanges but he also was getting hit clean as well by a base jiu-jitsu guy which wasn’t the best of looks – he struggled with the jab specifically.
He dropped his DWCS fight via strikes to William Knight but they were downward elbows against the fence when he was attempting a TD – a tad memey but also horrible fight IQ as his coaches were yelling at him to adjust his head positioning – he didn’t and was finished as a result. We also saw him take significant damage in similar positions against Dalcha in that fight but he was able to survive the barrage.
He was essentially KO’d by Alhassan but quit citing back of the head shots. Despite putting Marquez down and looking largely good for most of the round, he got hurt badly himself where a well-timed ref intervention may have saved him.
Most recently, not much happened in the Abdul-Malik fight – Brundage did a bit more in round 1, Abdul-Malik edged round 2 and then the head clash happened early round 3 resulting in the fight getting stopped.
Overall, Brundage is serviceable with some power but he still hasn’t fought many good “pure” strikers or spent extensive time with the better ones in space – he’s a bit fragile too.
How it plays out: Off the top, both guys will be the same height but McConico will realize a 5” reach advantage and a southpaw look. The striking has some variance here as both guys have power, dodgy durability and aren’t anything special in terms of work rate. While I think Brundage is probably the more live party to land something big early, I think there’s more process in the striking of McConico and he’s the more proven guy in terms of winning minutes in extended striking fights having decisions and late finishes on his record.
The wrestling/grappling component:
As noted, McConico pursued a football path in college but he did wrestle in his high school years.
He’s also a BJJ purple belt as of 2020 but could have leveled up to brown belt since then – just couldn’t confirm.
In most of his recent fights, he’s primarily looking to strike but we have seen him go to cage push in a handful of matchups where he’s been able to rack up some minutes.
But in his last regional win prior to his debut, he secured an earlier TD and finished via RNC – his two other pro submission wins come via RNCs as well so it appears there’s some process in his grappling despite not seeing him realize a ton of conventional wrestling success.
On the flip, he hasn’t been shot on much but has largely stayed upright in the times I’ve seen.
Tyler Ray took him down a couple times in their fight but McConico was able to dig underhooks, wall walk and work up relatively quickly – Ray is a base wrestler who wrestled DIII collegiately as well, whose career successes have come on the floor for additional context and McConico did well in those exchanges.
Overall, I’d like a larger sample of McConico on the ground before making any definitive claim but he appears competent.
Brundage comes from a DII collegiate wrestling background and is a BJJ purple belt.
In that, he’s shown decent TD concepts and general positional control when he chooses to solidify positions. He’s got a handful of arm triangles, did submit Kropschot with one who is a brown belt which was somewhat impressive, and scored a guillotine in his outing against Dalcha.
In that Krop fight as well, he was threatened with a Buggy Choke (unique submission) and did defend it properly – more so him listening to his coaches in that scenario than anything because at first, I don’t think he knew what to do – but props nonetheless working out. He also had Knight mounted back on DWCS.
In general, his offensive wrestling/grappling played a good part in his regional success and he slam KO’d Zach Reese a few fights back.
Defensively, he’s had his issues despite providing resistance.
He ultimately got grinded out by Maximov in his debut but didn’t get finished and showed good submission defense – however he got put into dominant position multiple times. He lost position against Michal and got pounded out in the guard – not the best of looks.
Against Vieira, he stuffed 6/7 TDs but got his back taken at the end of the 1st – then Brundage decided to jump a guillotine in the 2nd round which put him on bottom ultimately leading to him getting subbed – that was easily Top 5 most bonehead IQ decisions of 2023 in jumping on a world champion black belt.
He jumped guillotines in all three rounds against Dumas and got controlled for the bulk of the fight – not a great look. Malkoun was grinding on him prior to the DQ and he more recently got outwrestled and submitted by Nickal – no shame.
Overall, he’s a decent offensive wrestler who’s physically strong but his last six losses have come on the ground or in the clinch where he’s made dumb decisions in many fights and/or looked outright poor on the bottom.
How it plays out: The ground is weird because while I think Brundage is the better pure wrestler of the two, as alluded to above, he just hasn’t realized extended success with it in the UFC and has ultimately succumbed on the bottom multiple times. Also, while I think he’s fully capable of taking McConico down, I’m not really sold that he’s going to keep him there for large swaths of time or be the first guy to submit him. Just by proxy of cardio and perseverance, McConico could realize ground success here as well.
Dumpster fire of a fight generally but more specifically when you factor in the super short notice nature for both guys. Brundage is arguably the most flakey fighter on the roster regardless of weight class so he’s not a guy I have much faith in regardless of the matchup. He realistically should be 4-8 in the UFC and not 5-5-1-1 with all of the nonsense. On the flip side, I don’t think McConico is a world beater and while his debut was a bad showing, Ruziboev was a tough draw in the guys first fight in the promotion and on short notice so I also don’t think you can hold the guys feet to the fire too much. The general dynamic I see here is Brundage early and McConico late. In terms of pure pick, I’m going to go with McConico because I’ve actually seen him fight more effectively through adversity, fight more effectively for extended durations of time, he’s probably going to put up healthy resistance to Brundage’s wrestling and he has finishing upside of his own. From a side consideration, I think McConico’s cardio is better generally but also in this particular spot as he’s a main training partner of Jared Cannonier who’s fighting on next week’s PPV card – so I’d assume he’s not fully “coming off the couch” and has been getting in hard rounds in recent weeks to help Jared prep at least.
—
On DraftKings, I am absolutely hating my life right now because not only does Cody Brundage still have a roster spot, but we get another shitshow of a fight on short notice that will be one of the most impactful matchups on the slate.
Brundage is priced at 8.2k and looks to be a super strong DraftKings target this weekend. If he wins, I would expect it to come early, and because of that, he very likely exceeds value and contends for the optimal lineup.
McConico has been knocked out in all three of his pro losses, so I definitely think Brundage hurting him or club-and-subbing him is on the table. ITD odds aren’t out yet but Brundage should carry a strong number in a fight that’s -135 to end in less than 1.5 Rounds.
Of course, an extended fight would spell disaster for Brundage as he doesn’t string together enough offense. At that point, I’d be rooting for McConico to win because Brundage’s chances of accruing enough points to be optimal would drop significantly.
McConico is priced at 8k and is arguably the more risky of the two because we’ve only seen him once in the UFC and he got smashed. He doesn’t rate out as a super strong prospect either.
In theory, McConico is more comfortable fighting over the duration, and Brundage is addicted to quitting, so a mid or late round stoppage feels somewhat viable. His ITD number should be decent as well compared to all other underdogs. I don’t particularly trust in the skills of McConico to actually go out there and finish a fight though.
It’s also worth noting that Brundage has RUINED three of the last five DK slates he’s been a part of. Even when he’s getting completely pounded on, he’s somehow found a way to avoid a loss on his record. There’s really no way for me to have any kind of trust in his game, how the fight will play out, or whether there will even be a winner..
From a macro sense, putting bias aside, this is a fight that’s likely to end inside the distance, in a mid-range with little options. Based on that, it’s a fight I would recommend targeting.
I think Brundage has higher upside on paper and he could arguably be the slight priority, but I’m debating picking him to lose again and I would likely aim to not let this fight kill me as best as I could. That would mean coming in near the field on both sides, for starters. I honestly don’t mind coming in overweight to the fight as a whole as well, given the ITD potential.
This is super gross stuff and especially so to start the night. My hope is people are so scared off by both sides that we don’t get super chalk here, and McConico as the dog, off a bad showing, may be even more overlooked.
So in tournaments, again, I do like targeting this fight. Being overweight makes sense with lower public ownerships. There’s just a ton of variance and many ways things could go wrong.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: McConico by TKO, RD 3 (Confidence=Low)