UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 (6/29/24)

Note: Please read the full analysis, that is much more important than who I pick to win. The confidence relates to my pick to win, not the path to victory. Picks are NOT bets. Matchup breakdowns are written by Brett unless otherwise noted, and all DraftKings analysis is written by Brett. Both Technical Tim and Luke Lampe will also contribute to matchup breakdowns.

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Alex Pereira vs. Jiri Prochazka

Fight Odds: Pereira -137, Prochazka +119

Odds to Finish: -550

DraftKings Salaries: Pereira 8.5k, Prochazka 7.7k

Weight Class: 205

UFC 303 was supposed to feature the return of Conor McGregor, but instead we get to see one of the brightest stars in the sport returning to defend his throne, as Alex Pereira will take on Jiri Prochazka in a light heavyweight championship rematch.

The two last competed in 2023 when Pereira knocked Prochazka out in the second round. The first round was actually competitive, and multiple judges had scored it for Prochazka.

Pereira was landing some hard leg kicks and seemed to be ahead on damage, but Prochazka was able to take him down, which ultimately made that round competitive.

Prochazka swung wildly early in the second round and was having success, but he ran into a hook from Pereira and dropped, quickly ending the fight.

Since then, Pereira scored another beautiful knockout against Jamahal Hill in April, while Prochazka knocked out Aleksandar Rakic on the same card in a much more competitive fight. We’re fortunate to have both fighters willing to step up and save the card this weekend.

My take heading into that first fight was that Pereira was the superior kickboxer, and was more likely to damage Prochazka than vice versa.

Prochazka has had a consistent recipe of getting hurt early in fights, which stems in large part due to his wild style where he keeps his hands low and rushes in. It’s not a style that’s set up to defend strikes well.

In his UFC debut, Prochazka was hurt before eventually knocking out Volkan Oezdemir. He was badly hurt by Dominick Reyes before he eventually knocked him out as well. Glover Teixeira was able to hurt Prochazka in their championship fight.

Even in April, Rakic was beating up the legs of Prochazka, but Prochazka pushed a pace that Rakic could not keep up with and broke him in the second round.

These defensive issues won’t go away for Prochazka and they’re largely baked into the metrics as well. Pereira is landing 5.10 sig. strikes per minute, absorbing 3.65 per minute while defending at 50 percent. Prochazka is landing 5.75 sig. strikes per minute, absorbing 5.43 per minute while defending at 41 percent. Defending strikes at a near 40% clip is really poor.

Despite all this – despite Pereira’s recent success – his recent KO over Prochazka – his recent KO over Hill, he’s only sitting as a -137 favorite. Why?

Well, it feels like a good time to reiterate how much variance there is in this division and in striking exchanges. Striking technique only goes so far.

The amount of timing, precision, speed and accuracy that goes into landing a punch so perfectly that it hurts your opponent is beyond comprehension. A lot of it is just randomness.

And while Pereira is better. Is more technical. Is better defensively. Is probably more powerful. He’s been hurt many times too. He’s been knocked out. He didn’t even win the first round against Prochazka last time.

Prochazka fights with such an aggressive style that optics will always be great for him unless he’s getting hurt. Of the two, Prochazka is more likely to be pushing forward. He probably has more volume upside of the two.

I think there’s a pretty decent chance that if these two went pace for pace, Prochazka could outlast Pereira. We saw glimpses of that in the second round as Prochazka was pressing forward, backing Pereira against the cage and landing. Commentary thought he was hurt.

While Prochazka can get caught in those exchanges too, he may have just as much of a chance to hurt Pereira as Pereira does to hurt him. Although I’d lean toward Pereira, it’s not by a massive margin.

Furthermore, Pereira still has a considerable weakness on the ground which Prochazka has already taken advantage of. Prochazka isn’t an elite submission grappler but he submitted Glover Teixeira who is Pereira’s grappling coach and mentor. He already took Pereira down in the first fight.

We may ultimately find out that while Pereira has a legitimate chance to win the fight by knockout early, it may also be his only chance.

It’s possible that Prochazka can also hurt him early, can push a harder pace over five rounds, and can take advantage of Pereira’s weakness on the mat. All things combined, it’s the reason why despite being at severe technical disadvantages, Prochazka is still 40 percent implied to win this fight.

Ultimately, the lack of striking defense by Prochazka is the main reason why I picked Pereira the first time, and it’s why I will pick him again the second time. He has a better chance to land clean shots on Prochazka than vice versa.

We saw Pereira attack the legs of Prochazka early last time with success, and Rakic just ate up the legs of Prochazka as well. It would be really smart of Pereira to focus on that again and I expect he will.

And as Prochazka rushes in, Pereira will have opportunities to land cleanly and put him away. But I’m not exceptionally confident about that result, and I think Prochazka’s wild style and additional attributes give him multiple paths to the upset.

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On DraftKings, Pereira is priced at 8.5k and I expect him to be one of the most popular fighters on the slate.

It is a very tough call to make because obviously, he has early finishing potential. He just scored 110 against Hill and he scored 98 against Prochazka prior to that.

I want to note that Pereira was in pretty severe bust risk in that last Prochazka fight though. He only landed 38 strikes in the first nine minutes. If you extrapolate that out to five rounds, I’d expect him to land something like 100-120 significant strikes.

He went five rounds with Adesanya and only landed 91, though he landed 108 in a three-rounder against Silva earlier in his career.

Anyways, 120 sig. strikes in a decision is only 78 DraftKings points. I really doubt Pereira has wrestling equity here, and if his last fight means anything, he probably will fight cautiously with Prochazka early.

If Prochazka simply survives and extends this fight, I not only fear Pereira will underperform on DK but he could lose outright.

He’s still -125 to win ITD and of course, an early KO is viable. A KO in round one or two will give Pereira a good shot at the optimal. If the fight hits round three though, he is much less likely to hit 100 points and would be in danger of missing the optimal lineup.

At 8.5k, he should still be in your portfolio. I am not advocating a fade here. But he is so hyped up right now that I am guessing we’ll see heavy ownerships, and it’s honestly not the worst spot to consider pivoting because of that.

Prochazka at 7.7k is very viable as well, and probably will provide leverage against Pereira. 

That’s the most important thing here, that we can use Prochazka to gain leverage against the field in a fight where he is live to win and carries fantasy upside. He is only +180 to win ITD.

I don’t expect Prochazka to be overlooked, but he shouldn’t be as popular as Pereira and he opens up different constructions.

He has more volume upside than Pereira, some KO equity, and potentially significant wrestling equity. He’s landed takedowns in three of his last four fights. Those elements signal a pretty strong ceiling for a fighter priced at 7.7k, and I’m willing to play Prochazka because of it.

It’s going to be difficult to lean toward Prochazka ahead of Pereira though, just due to basic fight analysis. It’s a scary position to take and it’s not one you have to take. Leaning moderately toward Pereira is fine and it’s what I expect the field will want to do.

But this is a fight that could play out in a number of different ways, and it feels like a matchup where the field will be more confident than they should in the outcome.

I’m willing to play my exposure more evenly between the two because of it, and/or lean against the early Pereira KO in hopes of gaining some leverage against the field.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Pereira by KO, RD 2 (Confidence=Low)

Brian Ortega vs. Diego Lopes

Fight Odds: Lopes -141, Ortega +122

Odds to Finish: -180

DraftKings Salaries: Lopes 8.4k, Ortega 7.8k

Weight Class: 145

Props to the UFC for putting together another short-notice banger as Diego Lopes is must-see television right now, and he’ll get a real opportunity to make a mark in this division with a win over former title challenger Brian Ortega.

Lopes is 3-1 in the UFC thus far, but he shined in his lone loss against Movsar Evloev in his UFC debut, who is one of the very best fighters in this bantamweight division, constantly threatening him with submissions in a three-round decision.

Since then, Lopes has largely decimated his opponents. He locked up a flying triangle choke to defeat Gavin Tucker, and he knocked out both Sodiq Yusuff and Pat Sabatini, with each fight ending in about a minute and a half.

Lopes is a very high-level submission grappler, with deep family ties to the sport, and that is certainly one of his biggest strengths. He’s shown creativity and danger from various positions, but he’s more than comfortable to be on his back.

Because of this skill set, Lopes is willing to fight ultra-aggressively on the feet. He does not care if you take him down because that will give him a chance to attack for submissions. Instead, he just throws bombs on the feet and he’s able to capitalize early.

Unfortunately for me, I haven’t been backing Lopes through this incredible run, and he’s hurt me much more often than not.

While I fully respect the submission game, I don’t love the process of giving up takedowns to play from your back, as it doesn’t typically work at the highest levels.

Even on the Contender Series prior to his UFC debut, Lopes was taken down a few times and beaten by Joanderson Brito. He then fought another tough regional scene opponent and lost. Then he stepped up to the UFC and lost.

Granted, he’s threatened all of his opponents in some regard but it’s not as Lopes is so unbelievably talented that he’s escaped losing at every turn. He’s got six losses on his record, including two TKOs.

Looking at his tracked stats, Lopes lands 3.22 sig. strikes per minute, while absorbing 4.37 per minute with a 37-percent striking defense. It’s a small sample, but those are pretty awful metrics and defending strikes at 37 percent doesn’t make me feel very confident.

As a grappler, Lopes is landing 0.00 takedowns per 15 minutes while defending at 42 percent. For an elite grappler, failing to land takedowns isn’t a great signal of process or future predictability, and it just makes it difficult for me to trust him.

Sure, if he can literally knock everyone out in 90 seconds then Lopes will continue to be a monster. But my guess is we’re walking a very slippery slope here, and he’s quite likely to have a sharp fall off at some point.

Brian Ortega is an interesting opponent because for the most part, Ortega profiles very similarly to Lopes.

Ortega is an elite submission grappler, who’s historically been a poor wrestler, and has had additional boxing success because he’s not worried about opponents taking him down. He’s also a fighter I’ve largely faded, for similar reasons as Lopes.

Currently, in a much larger sample, Ortega is landing 4.07 sig. strikes per minute, while absorbing 6.54 per minute with a 49 percent defensive rate. He lands 1.17 takedowns per 15 minutes and defends at 57 percent.

Getting hit 290 times by Max Holloway in four rounds will certainly skew your statistics though, as will getting hit 214 times by Volkanovski in five rounds. But at least he’s faced the truly elite competition of his division, and performed admirably.

He’s also had injuries which have kept him away from the sport for a while. Ortega had his shoulder pop out in his first fight with Yair Rodriguez in 2022, and we didn’t see him again until the rematch in February.

Many had already written Ortega off by that point. And in the opening moments, Rodriguez rocked him badly and nearly swarmed for the finish. Fortunately, Ortega survived, leaned on his grappling and eventually submitted Yair in the third round.

I have mixed feelings about Ortega at this stage of his career because he’s fought so many quality opponents, and he’s skilled in all areas. But he does get hit a lot, and his wrestling is somewhat inconsistent, so he’s difficult for me to trust as well.

One thing I really like about his game recently is that he’s leaned into his takedowns more. In his last five fights, Ortega has landed 11 takedowns, which is pretty decent.

For comparison’s sake, in his first seven fights, Ortega literally landed ONE total takedown. The difference, as an elite submission grappler, between wrestling and not wrestling is hugely impactful, and I like that improving aspect for Ortega.

This matchup is a bit difficult to pick, all things considered.

There’s some merit to leaning toward Lopes, who can maybe just bomb away on Ortega early and hurt him. As mentioned, Ortega got hurt immediately by Rodriguez in his last fight, though he’s been very durable throughout his UFC career. He wasn’t knocked down once by Volkanovski or Holloway, despite eating 500 punches.

However, if Lopes can’t knock Ortega out early, I don’t see him winning this fight comfortably or winning at all.

Lopes hasn’t shown a willingness or capability to wrestle, and even if he does wrestle, is he going to get on top of Ortega and submit him? Seems unlikely given Ortega is just as good of a submission grappler, though maybe he’s not as dangerous.

Conversely, I think there’s a pretty decent chance Ortega gets on top of Lopes. His recent willingness to wrestle would be impactful for him in this matchup, as Lopes has lost many rounds playing off his back.

Sure, Lopes might be able to threaten Ortega from the bottom, but I wouldn’t bet on him locking up a submission. A submission grappler at the level of Ortega should be very comfortable with basic guard attacks.

And of the two, it really feels like Ortega has more wrestling and control upside. Though, even if he’s on top, he may not be able to mount much offense either.

There’s a good chance we get a lot of striking exchanges as well if the grappling is neutralized on both sides, in which case, I’d argue it’s about even.

Lopes seems to be more explosive, with more power. Ortega has fought much better competition and is probably a bit better defensively. Durability of the two could be comparable.

I don’t have a strong opinion, but I suppose I will lean toward Ortega as he has more paths to victory. He’s the best submission grappler Lopes has ever fought, and that should help limit Lopes’ best attributes. There may still be some hectic exchanges early but we’ve consistently seen Lopes end up on his back in fights that play out past a couple of minutes, which is a red flag that’s hard for me to overlook.

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On DraftKings, both sides are in play though I expect Lopes will be the more sought after fighter of the two.

He’s priced at 8.4k, with recent wins of 122, 105 and 90. It’s not a great matchup for him on paper, but my guess is that he’ll try to knock Ortega out early, and that at least gives him another path to a ceiling.

Lopes is +115 in this matchup which is really strong. It’s especially strong considering Ortega’s only two professional losses ITD came to Max Holloway, which the ref had to step in at the end of round four, and Yair Rodriguez, where his shoulder popped out in the first round. He’s never been truly “finished” in his professional career.

I won’t aim to take a heavy stand, but if I had to pick a side, it would be against targeting Lopes heavily. Not only is he likely to see decent public ownership due to his recent performances and hype, but he’s probably super boom or bust.

Over an extended fight, we’re not likely to see much wrestling. We’re not likely to see impactful volume. Even if he does wrestle, his path to a submission is probably extremely thin.

I think Lopes likely needs a quick KO to be optimal. We already saw when he jumped on a quick sub, he only scored 90 points, which may not be optimal at this price. For him to produce points, he probably needs the KO.

That outcome is possible as he’ll fight aggressively and Ortega was just hurt, but it doesn’t feel likely enough for me to be excited about investing here at potential chalk. I will mix Lopes in personally but will aim to be underweight to him in this range.

Ortega at 7.8k is viable. I think he has some wrestling equity, which could lead to a decent amount of control and some ground strikes as well. It may not look pretty but it’s a path to victory.

He also has some KO equity. I don’t think Lopes is super durable or anything and he doesn’t defend strikes very well. High-variance exchanges are possible and Ortega could be the one to hurt Lopes. He’s +285 to win ITD which is ok.

The hesitation is that it’s not the easiest matchup on paper for Ortega either. Even landing takedowns may put him in danger. I don’t want to rely on a KO.

So I don’t think it’s a terrible idea to be cautious with this fight, hoping that the two fighters neutralize each other on the mat and the fight extends.

I don’t mind Ortega as a secondary target though. Just as there’s a possibility of an extended fight, there’s also the possibility that this is an outright war. Oretga has some wrestling equity, some KO equity, and he’ll probably provide leverage against a more popular Lopes. I will mix him around the field or a bit over most likely.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Ortega by Decision (Confidence=Low)

Anthony Smith vs. Roman Dolidze

Fight Odds: Dolidze -143, Smith +123

Odds to Finish: -145

DraftKings Salaries: Dolidze 8.4k, Smith 7.8k

Weight Class: 205

*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe

Anthony Smith is now in his 9th year on the active roster and will be getting a tighter turnaround after pulling off a big upset win over Vitor Petrino in May – he’s 13-9 in the UFC and 37-19 as a pro. Roman Dolidze will be looking to get back in the win column after suffering back-to-back losses. This is a short notice spot for him, but he had an original booking earlier this month so he’s not coming off the couch either – he’s 6-3 in the UFC and 12-3 as a pro.

The striking component:

Smith has always been an interesting guy to fight.  He’s long and tall for the division, standing 6’4” with a 78” reach despite being a former 185er.    

However, he’s only been able to outland a handful of opponents in the last five years, with a lot of his fights finishing early.     

The common theme with Smith in the further past was that he’s a slower starter and has been more reliant on comeback types of wins — that’s definitely changed a bit in recent years, scoring four 1st round finishes in four of his last five wins.  

But his historic numbers are also a testament to that original point as well, as he only lands 3.3 sig. strikes per minute at 49% — grappling will skew that number down though as he lands at 4.7 distance strikes per minute which is more representative of his pace being respectable.    

But Smith is largely a finish or bust type of fighter as each of his last eight wins have come via stoppage, with the exception of Spann in a fight he arguably lost and the fact that he’s not really outpacing guys in the aggregate.     

He’s still not a guy to sleep on because he is technical, does have some power and kicks well. 

On the other side, he eats 4.6 sig. strikes per minute at 46% — giving him a pretty significant negative strike ratio – coupled with a slightly negative distance strike ratio of -0.2/minute.     

This is largely because he stands very upright, doesn’t utilize a ton of head movement or movement in general and tends to go backwards in straight lines when pressured instead of circling off.     

At the same time, he’s shown to be a relatively durable fighter, having only been knocked down a handful of times in the last eight years – two of which came from leg and body kicks – we have seen Smith generally susceptible to the legs as well.   

He still isn’t reacting to strikes very well in recent years though.

Overall, I’ve never been the biggest Smith supporter, but he is a respectable offensive striker and a tested vet against quality competition. But he’s not usually a guy who’s going to separate himself minute to minute and individual rounds can be very jekyll and hyde with him.

Dolidze’s traditionally been a lower volume power puncher, finishing seven of his 12 pro wins via strikes.      

Output wise, he lands 2.6 sig. strikes per minute at 39% — there’s been a lot of grinding in his fights though which needs to be noted but even at space, he’s still not blowing the doors off guys from a volume perspective at only 3.5 distance strikes/minute.   

I do partially attribute his lower volume nature to the fact that guys often respect his power and want to me more non-committal against him, because they know he can put them out, coupled with certain stylistic matchups.      

In that same regard, he doesn’t get hit a ton as a result – 3.4 sig. strikes per minute at 51%.   But he does try to coax guys to get into the firefight with him.      

Despite his numbers though, the first guy he fought who had some decent technical boxing acumen in Giles did hit him cleanly (landed at 47% on Dolidze), and even buckled him pretty good in the 3rd round.

It’s important to note that he’s slowed in virtually every extended affair he’s had.    

He was able to clock Daukaus early so it’s another fight where we didn’t get many distance questions answered, but can’t take anything away from Dolidze there – point being though, if he doesn’t clip him early, in many scenarios we probably see a very different fight transpire.    

He was also able to bonk Phil Hawes who we know has durability issues.  

He got outvolumed at distance 43 to 12 by Hermansson, losing the 1st round unanimously. 

However, he fought Vettori a lot more competitively than I anticipated and did take the 1st round ,but ultimately dropped the last two  and got outlanded at distance 100-67.

Most recently, he got hurt significantly early by Imavov and was outlanded at distance 67-32.

Overall, opponents have to respect the power that is coming back their way from Dolidze, but it’s still difficult to project him to win extended, clean minutes standing.  

How it plays out: I lean Smith on the feet just because he’s the more active distance striker and I feel a bit better about him winning minutes. He’s also a bit longer and more technical. However, Dolidze has raw power and good hardware which gives him a solid floor in this fight at the same time. So, Smith could be landing more than Dolidze and then get clocked with a right hand where he’s shelling up, which could swing the round. Smith fighting as close as he did against Spann over 15 minutes is just concerning for me in relation to this spot because Spann has poor hardware and cardio.

The wrestling/grappling component:

Smith is a BJJ black belt but rarely looks to wrestle himself to get fights down.     

This was somewhat of a shock in one his more recent outings against Clark, as Smith shot early, got the TD, got reversed and then locked up a submission.  But if you’ve watched Smith over his long UFC run, that was very uncharacteristic of him.    

He only lands 0.5 TDs per 15 minutes at 26% over a large sample size – giving some credence to the anomalous approach in that fight.   He did take Spann down recently but didn’t do anything with it.  

Defensively, he only stuffs TDs at 48% and his defensive wrestling has been an issue for him in the past.  Jones, Texiera, Rakic, Oezdemir and Ankalaev all got a decent amount of top time on him in their fights, and it was a primary reason for Smith taking L’s — he did pull a submission out late against Oezdemir, but it was a fight that he was losing.     

This is another component that makes Smith a bit more difficult to gauge because he clearly does have submission acumen but he’s not always willing to threaten and has accepted bottom position before – he also got taken down three times by Jimmy Crute on one leg which really wasn’t a great look.     

Despite those defensive wrestling struggles though, his submission defense has always been on point.    

Similar to the striking, opponents can’t sleep on Smith when he’s grounded because he will capitalize on positional mistakes but conversely, he’s very beatable there, which has been proven by defensively responsible opponents on numerous occasions now.     

Dolidze is a brown belt in BJJ and has won some grappling titles in the past, but in some of the lesser respected tournaments/trials.  He does have three submission wins on his record over low-level guys but did wrestle a fair amount in his fights against Allan and Staropoli. 

Against Allan, he went 3/5 on TDs and was able to rack up 7+ minutes of control time, winning via SD (that fight shouldn’t have been a split, he won the fight 29-28 in my eyes).     

He did get Giles down once and got 4+ minutes of control time but the majority of that was in cage push. He also ate a ton of shots from Giles in the 50/50 position which was a factor in him losing the fight.     

He then pretty much just controlled Staropoli from back ride for the majority of that fight as Staropoli couldn’t fight hands – we saw some similar things recently against Imavov, but he wasn’t able to do much.      

He got taken down by Hawes and was able to compromise Hawes’ knee with a leg lock, despite the fight not being stopped.    

His wrestling metrics overall are okay though at 1.3 TDs per 15 minutes at 41% — I just don’t like how he can concede position for submission which was a big part of why the Giles and Allan fights were close in the eyes of the judges.   

He only stuffs TDs at 33% which is horrible but my opinions on Dolidze’s offensive grappling prowess have evolved.  The early modified deep half sweep he had against Hermansson, and then the calf slicer to back take to GNP finish was really slick – I did not see that coming at all.  

Overall, despite my evolving opinions on Dolidze as a grappler, it doesn’t change the fact he has horrible TDD and the guys who he’s been able to outwrestle have been lesser wrestlers.   

How it plays out: Despite Dolidze technically going up in weight here, he’s physically stronger than Smith and I’d give him more wrestling upside as he’s been the more willing wrestler of the two in the past. Coupled with both guys’ control rations being essentially inverted – Dolidze at 3:1 and Smith at 1:4.5. I’d say Smith has better pure jiu-jitsu, although Dolidze’s a capable grappler and I don’t think he gets subbed at much of a rate here.

Weird booking and a matchup that I didn’t anticipate we’d ever see given the weight class. Although the jump up for Dolidze doesn’t factor in much for me considering he’s fought at 205 before and Smith was a historic 185er. It’s not a fight I have a super passionate opinion on as both guys are difficult to trust pretty much anytime out. I’ll lean to the short favorite in Dolidze, but the fight can go either way.

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On DraftKings, I have mild interest in Dolidze but this is a pretty gross fight and it’s a tough one for me to feel confident in.

Largely, I’ve been very low on both Dolidze and Smith for years. I don’t love the process to their games and I don’t consider them trustworthy. However, we hit on Smith as a huge dog over Petrino last time out, in a sneaky fantasy matchup where he was being overlooked.

Now Smith is priced up to 7.8k as a +124 underdog, and that makes me pretty uncomfortable. While I’m willing to punt with Smith on occasion, I do not want to trust him against anyone competent at this stage.

Dolidze is borderline, but ultimately, Smith just doesn’t produce a ton of offense. I think this is a big step down in competition for Dolidze, and I’m not certain Smith can effectively threaten him.

Dolidze on the other hand at least has upside in his style, and Smith has been breakable at points. Smith always gets beaten up, but it’s mostly been a question of whether he can come from behind and win. He’s older now, and lacks real defense of any kind, so I can at least picture a form of upside for Dolidze.

Dolidze has scored 108, 92, 86, 115, 109 and 84, which is a pretty strong average winning score.

Dolidze at 8.4k is viable to me because of this. He’s priced in a range with Pereira and Lopes, and he probably will get overlooked because of that and because of his recent losses. He’s not necessarily a trustworthy fighter, but I think he carries some grappling equity and finishing upside at +160 ITD.

The public has been way too high on him in recent spots but my guess is his ownership gets dialed back pretty hard here, and it’s perhaps a spot to jump back on the train. He’s still boom or bust, and probably needs to hurt Smith or land a lot of ground-and-pound to really produce the result we want, but at 8.4k I am willing to take chances on him in tournaments and wouldn’t mind being a bit overweight.

Smith at 7.8k is boom or bust as well. I just question whether he has much wrestling equity, and I don’t expect a lot of volume. You’re probably hoping he can find his way to top position and finish Dolidze, or hurt him late in the fight. It’s possible.

Smith is +260 to win ITD which is actually decent, and I suppose he’s viable because of that. I certainly won’t end up heavy on Smith, but I don’t want him to ruin my night either, so coming in near the field with a larger portfolio is probably the route that I would choose.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Dolidze by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Low)

Mayra Bueno Silva vs. Macy Chiasson

Fight Odds: Bueno Silva -107, Chiasson -107

Odds to Finish: +115

DraftKings Salaries: Bueno Silva 8.8k, Chiasson 7.4k

Weight Class: 135

*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe

Mayra Bueno Silva was a part of one of the original seasons of the Contender Series, and she had an up and down run at 125. But she moved up to 135 in 2022, grinding her way to a title a shot where she came up short – she’s 5-3-1 in the UFC and 10-3-1 as a pro. Macy Chiasson’s a girl who’s also had to grow up in the UFC, having won the TUF 28 season just after two pro fights. She’s had some battles with the scales but appears to be coming into her own at 32 – she’s 7-3 in the UFC and 9-3 as a pro.

The striking component:

Silva’s a base orthodox fighter but will switch stances, has shown aggressive tendencies on the feet and is a potent offensive striker. She’s now racked up a handful of fights with more extended distance time against Moroz, Fiorot and Wu.     

Moroz outstruck her in all three rounds of the fight numerically, largely from the back foot. It was that volume that really gave Silva issues despite her landing a solid amount of her own.   To her credit, she came on really strong in the 3rd round, winning the round while coming moderately close to finishing. But she got off to a poor start.     

She got pot-shotted by Fiorot for the better part of 15 minutes – Fiorot is a top tier striker in the division now though.     

Against Wu, she looked a lot more technical than she ever has all while keeping up her volume to win the distance exchanges – although, she still got hit way too much for my liking and Wu did make the fight somewhat competitive which isn’t a great look considering Wu is a bottom of the barrel talent.  

We also saw roughly five minutes at distance against DLR and she beat DLR up pretty good – she could have won that fight if she didn’t get deducted a point in the first round for a cage grab.     

She works that Brazilian “chute box” type of style – punches in bunches, low kicks and some aggressive clinch strikes.  She’s shown to be higherish output statistically as well, landing 3.9 sig. strikes per minute at 58% — 5.5 distance strikes per minute at 51%. 

But the primary issue with Silva standing is that her defense has been less than desirable. She eats 4.9 sig. strikes per minute at 53% and 7.1 distance strikes per minute but at 60%.     

I do think she has shown improved defensive capabilities in recent years in comparison to her earlier years, but it’s still not great.   

She got out landed by Holm more recently as the range of Holm gave her some issues, but she did land the more damaging strikes in the 1st round. We didn’t get much distance time against Pennington but Pennington nearly 2x’d her at distance 54 to 28.  

Overall, Silva’s pressure, impactful capabilities and semi-improving defense are a testament to where she’s at right now. But historically, when she’s fought better base strikers, there have been some struggles.  

Macy is one of the bigger girls in the UFC, standing 5’11” with a 72” reach.   

I was never the biggest proponent of her standup in the early going but she’s made some healthy evolutions in her six years on the active roster.   

Statistically, she lands 3.5 sig. strikes per minute at 44%, which is skewed a bit lower than it should be based on the amount of grappling exchanges she has per fight. She lands more than 4.2 strikes per minute at distance which still isn’t great though.

I feel her best work is really done with knees and elbows in the clinch, or when she’s able to get in top position on girls.   

But in some recent fights against Reneau, Pennington, Dumont and Aldana she’s been able to do some good things in space as well – her footwork and countering ability are the two bigger evolutions in her standup. 

Defensively, she’s still poor, only defending strikes at 46%. Despite her improving footwork, she lacks consistent head-movement, can struggle with effective pressure/flurries and largely relies on her chin in the phone booth.   

It’s just a pet peeve of mine when fighters have physiological advantages that they can’t necessarily use to efficacy on a consistent basis.   

If Macy could really learn to fight behind a jab over 15 minutes, she’d be a bigger problem for a lot of girls – as alluded to, she is getting better though in using her length.    

However, in all three of her last fights, when girls have started to let their hands go, Macy still has the same poor tendencies she always has – she was significantly hurt in both the Pennington and Dumont fights, and hurt in other fights as well.    

Overall, Macy’s size and physicality has paid credence to her striking success to this point in her career and she’s gotten better, but I still feel more polished girls are going to give her issues.  

How it plays out: Macy will realize a healthy size advantage of 5” of height and 6” of reach. But as noted, she’s not one to use it effectively or consistently, and Silva is going to be looking to walk her down in this fight. I just think Silva is a more consistent, effective distance fighter than Macy who also hits harder. Despite Silva absorbing the number of distance strikes she does, she is better defensively on a percentage basis and it’s also really important to note that Silva has faced more than 2x the distance volume that Chiasson has. Both girls are effective as clinch strikers as well which makes things interesting but I favor Silva on the feet.

The wrestling/grappling component:

Silva’s a BJJ black belt, but we’ve only seen her land conventional TDs in two fights, which was against Lansberg who can’t really stuff TDs and most recently Pennington where she landed three.

The majority of her subs have come off of her back as girls have been able to get in on her hips and get her down. Her TDD does sit at 67% which is respectable, but at the end of the day, she’s had some struggles.  

It’s on her back that she looks to control wrists to eventually set up her armbar/triangle attacks from guard.     

She was able to get Robertson in this in a transition which is a very solid win, however, I feel that was more so a fundamental mistake from a younger Robertson than a massive feather in the cap of Silva – still a win that has aged well though.  

She was also controlled by Moroz and DLR extensively which dropped her rounds in those fights. She did threaten Wu with a triangle and kimura but couldn’t finish, which is kind of embarrassing to be candid, but she was able to submit Egger which was impressive although the scenario was weird and semi-controversial.   

She kind of struggled to pass the guard of Lansberg when on top which is kind of concerning to me as well, and she did end up getting reversed in the 2nd, but Lansberg re-engaged and got kneebarred shortly after.   

Silva did catch Holm in a ninja choke against the fence and she has attacked that before. Most recently, despite being out controlled by Pennington, she did take the back three different times but couldn’t finish.   

In the times she’s able to get into top position, she will be aggressive with ground strikes at times as she’s not worried about losing position because she’s comfortable on her back.     

Overall, I still have some skepticism of how “high level” her grappling prowess is, but she’s submitted a couple good grapplers now. It’s just if she fights someone with solid defensive responsibility, she is the type of fighter that could lose rounds on bottom fishing for stuff.  

Macy doesn’t have a traditional wrestling background to my knowledge but lands 2.4 TDs per 15 minutes at 37%.

But in the aggregate, when she’s able to get on top of girls, she’s pretty strong as she’s able to posture and land good ground-and-pound.   

She’s also shown some back taking/submission ability in both her fights against Kianzad, where she was able to capitalize on some smaller mistakes to finish.  

She was able to squeak out the 1st round from Pennington by landing a late TD, and was able to sweep Reneau/do some good work on top there as well.     

Macy was able to get the better of the wrestling exchanges against Aldana as well and was probably on her way to winning that fight without the meme upkick liver shot from bottom. However, Aldana was able to threaten Macy with deep sub attempts at the end of the 1st round after a failed TDA.    

Her first loss in the UFC did come to Lansberg who’s a striker by nature, who was also able to outwrestle her, landing two TDs and getting roughly eight minutes of control. Granted, there was some clinch time mixed in there, but Macy collapsed in that fight which was concerning.    

Reneau was able to get a couple TDs but wasn’t able to do much with them.   

More recently, we saw her get submitted by Pennington who’s a competent grappler but not an overt submission threat historically — not the greatest look and Macy kind of just stuck her head in a guillotine.     

Overall, I still don’t think she’s anything special as a technical wrestler/grappler and is more of a size bully, though she is decent, and it’s been a good component of her UFC success.    

How it plays out: The floor dynamic is interesting here where that size Macy has could play a larger factor. Despite Silva being physical in her own right, we have seen her get bullied in a few fights as well and in the clinch. Her TDD isn’t the best and Macy is far more consistent to push TDs where Silva can play guard. So, I like Macy from a minutes standpoint here. However, Silva is a better/more dangerous submission grappler and we’ve seen Macy give up some bad positions and be submitted before. She actually tapped against Aldana if you watch that back in slow motion and was front choked by Pennington who doesn’t really submit anyone. She was also sticking her neck into stuff late against Dumont who just couldn’t capitalize. Point being, despite liking Macy from a minute’s perspective, Silva’s going to be a submission threat in really all grappling positions whether that be Macy’s entries, in the clinch with that ninja choke, guard attacks or back takes.

This is a great fight and one that has a healthy degree of variance because I could see the fight playing out in a lot of different ways, where nothing would be overtly shocking. I’ll take Silva to get back in the win column just because I think she has more ways to win and having wins over Robertson and Holm are more meaningful to me than what Chiasson has done. Still not a passionate opinion though because Macy may be able to boss her around.

—

On DraftKings, Chiasson is actually in a clear value position at 7.4k, after being bet up from +170/+150 to her current price of -107.

I don’t have much confidence in Chiasson, but it’s hard to pass up on clear value when fighters priced nearby Chiasson are +200 and +250. Plus, Chiasson is a grappling oriented fighter so she typically scores well in wins, and we were actually able to hit on her last time as a contrarian option against Kianzad.

Chiasson has now scored 102, 111, 111, 108, 75, 106 and 111 in her UFC wins, which is very strong. And she’s facing an opponent in Bueno Silva who has given up takedowns to many opponents.

Chiasson simply has a much better chance (in theory) to win compared to fighters surrounding her in price, and given her grappling style, if she wins, she’s likely to score well and potentially contend for the optimal. In total, Chiasson will rate out as a very strong target for the price tag and could be outright prioritized.

The question really comes in the matchup and the ownership. The matchup is OK, but it’s not great, mostly because Silva is likely the superior submission grappler. So even if Chiasson has success wrestling, she could be putting herself in danger, where some of her best wins came to fruition because she was also the better sub grappler than her opponent.

There’s a pretty decent chance that Chiasson will get outstruck, and won’t be impactful enough with her wrestling to win this fight. So despite the value, I can’t say I’m very excited to roster her.

She’s also +475 to win ITD which is poor and ties into the matchup, and I do think it’s likely the public will have some concern as well. I won’t project her to be 40%+ owned chalky, though due to pricing and value alone, 30% feels somewhat realistic.

Ultimately, I consider Chiasson a strong target for her price tag based on value and wrestling equity. She’s an easy secondary tournament target, and likely a cash game priority. There’s some real merit to being near the field or underweight in tournaments though, simply hoping she loses, and pivoting to other high-upside who should also be lower owned.

Bueno Silva is priced up to 8.8k and I expect her to be contrarian based on the negative value alone.

She’s priced in a range with some heavy favorites, and fighters who can wrestle, and Silva is likely to be an afterthought because of that. I’m not completely opposed to playing her though.

Chiasson has been hurt before and she’s been submitted before. Bueno Silva is the more aggressive striker and the better submission grappler, so there are paths to a finish at +180 ITD.

It would clearly need to come early which is tough to project, but it’s not impossible. Bueno Silva has scored 80, 109, 92, 66, 91 and 95 in her wins. It’s truthfully probably not enough, but if we find ourselves needing a more mid-range based optimal lineup, I could see Bueno Silva sliding in with a 100 point score.

It will be hard to click that button often though. Of course I’d like to pay up when I can. Simon and Robertson have a ton of grappling equity. Pyfer has finishing equity.

I think it’s why Bueno Silva is ultimately just a contrarian target. If you want to be unique in this range, she’s one option who can finish fights, who should also provide leverage against Chiasson. She’s worth a sprinkle in large fields, though I likely won’t end up with much exposure on a limited portfolio.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Bueno Silva by Decision (Confidence=Low)

Ian Machado Garry vs. Michael Page

Fight Odds: Garry -154, Page +133

Odds to Finish: +150

DraftKings Salaries: Garry 8.2k, Page 8k

Weight Class: 185

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

One of the biggest villains in MMA today, Ian Machado Garry will take on the extremely popular Michael Venom Page this weekend.

Garry is a pretty well-rounded fighter. He can strike a bit and grapple a bit. On the feet, Garry lands 6.27 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.49 in return. He controls range well and uses his long frame at 6’3” to land long strikes. He throws a lot of straight punches like jabs and straight right hands. He will mix in some kicks and head kicks as well.

I like the way Garry controls range. He is in and out quickly. He has some speed with his footwork and hands, and has generally been faster than all of his opponents. He also has some accurate and precise strikes. He lands clean and is definitely capable of hurting opponents. He has a few one-punch knockouts on his record now.  

Garry really likes to counter strike on the feet. When his opponents come into range, Garry generally slides back and will make them pay. His counter right hand that knocked out Williams was nice. I also really liked the leg kicks that he showed against Neil Magny. He beat the crap out of Magny, and it was honestly the best performance I have seen from him in the UFC. I loved those leg kicks.

My main issue with Garry on the feet is that he leaves his head straight in the air. He has been tagged a few times in the UFC. However, he really has dominated most of his UFC rounds other than getting hurt occasionally.

Garry is also a competent grappler. He can land takedowns, hold position well, and threaten with submissions. He has one submission win in his professional career. I don’t consider him a great or good wrestler and I doubt he will outgrapple above-average UFC competition. 

However, he can absolutely take advantage of weak grapplers. He hasn’t been going to it in the UFC though and only lands 0.55 takedowns per 15 minutes. Garry’s defensive grappling also seems competent. He generally defends takedowns well or works up.

Garry will be taking on Michael Venom Page. Page made his UFC debut in March against Kevin Holland and won a clean decision. He outlanded Holland 41-29 in significant strikes and did a good job of being defensively sound and frustrating Holland.

Before his UFC debut, Page had a successful Bellator career. Page is 22-2 professionally. Page is a striker through and through. He is long and awkward and comes from a kickboxing and sport karate background. He uses a very unorthodox and highly explosive point striking style. He will bounce on the outside and blitz in and land devastating strikes. He will land all limbs as well including knees.

In a striking fight, I think Page is quite good and hard to deal with. I also like his defensive striking a lot. He rarely gets landed on while on the feet, and he frustrated Holland badly. He also has knockout power.

The issue with Page is he is not the best defensive grappler. He lost to Logan Storley and even Paul Daley had success grappling him. I do think Page has improved his defensive grappling though, and I don’t think he is as vulnerable on the ground as other people think.

Page is just a fun addition to the roster. He is an awkward striker and explosive. He is also just hard to track down so he is theoretically live to win any striking fight.

As far as this matchup goes, I generally think these guys will strike. Garry just doesn’t grapple often and Page does have alright TDD, and is a tough guy to get a hold of. I do think if someone does have grappling success it will be Garry though. So Garry being the favorite because of grappling upside does seem logical.

I don’t know man, this could turn into a weird and boring striking fight. Page is very comfortable evading and being defensive, and sometimes Garry likes to counter. I could easily see both of these guys being tentative and waiting for one another.

I personally like Garry’s youth. I also like Garry’s striking style more. He tends to land more volume and lands more consistent conventional strikes like leg kicks and straight punches. However, Page is seriously tough to land on and Page is generally good at bringing people into his style. I tend to think Page will be able to blitz in and land and evade, and that could frustrate Garry.

I really don’t have strong opinions here. However, Page has never really lost a striking fight before and he is very unconventional. I am going to go with him to get the upset. This could be extremely boring and weird though, and I don’t want anything to do with it from a betting perspective.

—

On DraftKings, this will likely be another boom or bust matchup just given Page’s style.

We were largely avoiding Page in his UFC debut for these same reasons. Page doesn’t grapple, and he barely throws any strikes. Landing 41 strikes in 15 minutes is horrendous, and it only scored him 53 DK points in a win.

The problem is that sometimes, one of those punches can break his opponent’s skull and end the fight. When those outcomes occur, Page will flash his ceiling and compete for the optimal.

I will very rarely invest in Page just due to the extreme bust nature of his matchups, but I will say, I am less willing to fade him in this spot than I was in his debut against Holland. Unlike Holland who rarely ever gets knocked down, Garry has already been rocked by two low-level UFC opponents in Jordan Williams and Song Kenan. I actually do think Page could hurt him and knock him out.

If you’re interested in some extreme risk, and chasing a bit of narrative based upside, then feel free to roster Page at 8k as much as you like. He absolutely can hurt Garry.

But he’s +300 to win ITD. The fight is -180 to go the distance. Without a RD 1 KO, Page is likely busting, so I just don’t think I’ll be able to roster him much here.

Page is just a large-field mix in, who will possibly be a bit sneaky based on the result of his UFC debut. But he doesn’t fight with a style that gives you many outs and that will always make me uncomfortable.

Garry at 8.2k has some viability but he’s a sketchy target as well due to Page limiting exchanges.

In theory, Garry can land upward of 120 significant strikes. He’s the better wrestler and grappler. Page has been knocked out before. There’s some upside in Garry’s style and he’s scored well on DK at times.

However, Holland was only able to land 29 strikes in 15 minutes. Even if Garry lands 100 strikes, it won’t matter. That’s only 70 points in a decision win. I think he really needs to win by early KO or dominate on the ground to have a shot at the optimal.

Garry is only +325 to win ITD which isn’t strong, and is potentially another indicator to be cautious with this matchup. And while he can wrestle, he’s clearly not been super willing to do so in the UFC thus far. So it’s tough to project that upside coming at a high rate.

You’d think this matchup would be an obvious one for Garry to mix it up, and when Holland wrestled, he immediately got dominant position. I do think Garry can dominate on the ground, I just question how often that outcome occurs.

He’s fine to mix in at 8.2k, and he’s a mild value now at -154 to win, so I don’t mind a bit of Garry in general. There’s upside, but it’s a very thin window and there are many paths for this bout to extend, and bust completely.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Garry by Decision (Confidence=Low)

UNDERCARD

Joe Pyfer vs. Marc-Andre Barriault

Fight Odds: Pyfer -302, Barriault +245

Odds to Finish: -170

DraftKings Salaries: Pyfer 9k, Barriault 7.2k

Weight Class: 185

*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe

Joe Pyfer’s a two-time Contender Series alum who found himself in a main event spot earlier this year where he came up short – he’s 3-1 in the UFC and 12-3 as a pro. Marc-Andre Barriault’s in his 6th year on the active roster to which he’s an up and down run – he’s 5-6 in the UFC and 16-7 as a pro.

The striking component:

Pyfer comes from a floor background but the bulk of what we’ve seen from him has been standing in the last five years. Stylistically, he’s more of a methodical boxer who will occasionally mix in leg kicks.   

In that, he’s not a pace machine but has shown technicality and will look to pick up on reads from his opponents. He’s also shown an immense amount of power with eight of his 12 pro wins coming via KO.   

I’m still not in love with his defense as he can overextend at times and eat kicks. 

We saw Diaz have some early success on Pyfer back on the Contender Series, but Pyfer was able to put him down with a nice counter hook.   

We also saw Pyfer put down Amedovski in his debut in which he took his time again, but was able to find the shot towards the end of the 1st round – it was honestly a cupcake of a debut and a setup fight for Pyfer though so there wasn’t a ton to takeaway.  Very little happened in the GM3 fight and then Pyfer found the shot.  

He got the better of the boxing against Alhassan, hurting him at one point, but Pyfer also appeared like his leg was starting to get compromised with the kicks from Alhassan.

Most recently, he was able to take the first couple rounds from Hermansson, but his pace dropped as the fight progressed and was outstruck 66-44 at distance in the latter three rounds to drop a decision.

Overall, I respect the power of Pyfer but I’m still not as high on him as a striker as a lot of people are because I’ve seen some flaws, and he’s still not an overtly tested guy against better caliber strikers.

Barriault is more of your “brooding” type of 185er.     

He’s a dense dude who likes to come forward, put hands on opponents and fights well in “phone booth” types of exchanges – he’s not a bad kicker either but is primarily boxing based.    

I think his combo boxing is actually good, but he’s not the fastest guy in the world and will engage in the firefight.     

He hasn’t been a gigantic hitter in the UFC but had four KOs in his TKO run (Canadian regional promotion), and he’s been able to secure TKOs in two of his last five Ws.     

Barriault’s record isn’t great but to his credit, he’s fought some tough guys in his run and has been in competitive fights – to illustrate, he’s taken a round off 4/5 opponents in his losses that have extended.    

The issue with Barriault is that despite him landing 6.2 sig. strikes per minute at 47% — very good numbers, he eats 5.7 per minute and defends at 52% — not good numbers. But he has defended at distance at 58% which is a bit better.   

He’s the type of guy who will take shots to give shots which optically isn’t always the best look, but can shell well and he’s also the guy usually playing the bully which aids in his optics at the same time.    

But Barriault is about as tough as they come and has proven to be very durable.    

He got KO’d against Njokuani for the 1st time, spanning 26 amateur and pro fights at that time.    

But there is some heavy context lost that most people don’t realize there – he got clipped behind the ear – it’s one of the main “lights off” switches in MMA – I don’t know the physiological reason for it but we’ve seen it a lot over the years – the strike doesn’t necessarily need to even be that hard but can completely throw off the recipient’s equilibrium – this came in 16 seconds – Barriault is still an incredibly durable fighter in my eyes.     

He’ll struggle with more technical/defensive orientated fighters who can also match his work rate, but it’s also not an easy task as Barriault will push a strong pace over 15 minutes standing.   

With that being said, Barriault is not an easy guy to look good against on the feet as he’s one of the grittier fighters in the division. You generally can expect him to be in there for 15 minutes and he will test the cardio of many opponents at 185. 

How it plays out: The stand up is a lot more interesting here for me than probably what most people are saying. Pyfer has the power to put anyone out and Barriault has been hurt before, but he’s also one of the most durable guys in the division. A lot of people thought Curtis was going to put him down and he didn’t despite landing 140 significant strikes on Barriault. Pyfer also didn’t KO Hermansson in a fight that had 22 minutes of distance time, and Hermansson’s durability has come into question in the past. I guess my point is, if Pyfer doesn’t put him down or hurt him badly in multiple rounds, the striking will in all likelihood be competitive.

The wrestling/grappling component:

Pyfer comes from a wrestling and jiu-jitsu background but I’m unsure of his official credentials – he’s spent the bulk of his time out on the east coast though with some good ground guys in Sean Brady and Andre Petrovski.  

He’s mixed wrestling into quite a few of his fights in which he’s found entry success at a decent percentage with blast shots, and has shown to be competent from top positions.   

He’s got three wins via submission, but it’s generally been over a lower level of competition – he did score an arm-triangle in his most recent win but Alhassan kind of just accepted the position and didn’t really try to fight out of it. He landed one TD on Stoltzfus, getting a little more than a minute of control but didn’t do much with it.   

Stoltzfus eventually worked back up after halfhearted guillotines and triangles and then slammed Pyfer, dislocating his elbow – pretty nasty and unfortunate circumstance.   

Against Diaz, he was also able to secure a TD, and get nearly three minutes of control and attempt an arm-triangle, but also got reversed where Diaz did get to back ride.  

Pyfer has been submitted once via guillotine where he was winning the fight but got tired and gave up his neck in the 2nd round – the fight was over four years ago though.  

We didn’t see much ground time in the Hermansson fight as Hermansson mostly shut Pyfer out, but he got on top in the 3rd round where he rode out three minutes to secure the decision victory.

Overall, he appears to be competent on the floor from an offensive perspective but is largely untested defensively – I’d generally like to see more in both realms and against more meaningful opposition before putting any sort of official stamp on his ground game.  

Barriault has had some floor struggles and it’s been a component in him taking four of his five Ls in the UFC.     

Sanchez took him down twice and got six minutes of control time – Jotko took him down once and got nearly 5 minutes of control time – Park took him down five times and got 3+ minutes of control time – Hernandez took him down eight times and got 8+ minutes of control time, eventually submitting him for the 1st time in his pro career.     

With all of that being said, it is important to note that Barriault’s TDD still sits at 67% which isn’t a bad number considering he’s faced 64 attempts and some stronger floor players.    

So he’s not immune to being taken down but also has shown a decent get-up game and he won’t be content to hang out on bottom – he’s still only getting out controlled at a 2.4:1 ratio which isn’t good, but contextually not terrible.      

The issue is he’s gotten stuck on the cage at points and has struggled to work off.  He was taken down twice by Wright but popped up quickly, though he still got stuck against the fence a bit before securing the guillotine. 

He got washed by Hernandez but that’s what Hernandez does to people.    

However, he actually had some solid top based success against Azaitar as well, finding a finish on the mat which isn’t in the traditional rolodex of Barriault – a big component of that was Azaitar being completely exhausted though.     

In the aggregate, he still only lands 0.2 TDs per 15 minutes though so he’s not a guy who’s shooting or securing much over a decent sample size now.    

Overall, the floor is Barriault’s main flaw, but his strength of comp needs to be contextualized as he’s not being outwrestled/outgrappled by bums.  

How it plays out: This is where I’d give a clearer edge to the Pyfer side. As noted, I still have some questions on how good his overall ground game is, but it should be superior to Barriault’s – I’d say more from a submission grappling standpoint. He’s also the more likely party to shoot TDs. With all that being said, Barriault still stuffs at 67% which isn’t great, though he does make guys work for everything on the ground. So, despite the upside being there for Pyfer, I don’t think he has the cardio to wrestle a hard 15 minutes without slowing down.

Fun booking. Some people are saying this is some “easy get right” spot for Pyfer and I don’t understand that. I favor Pyfer because he has more KO/grappling upside but if this fight goes a full 15 minutes, I think this fight plays more competitively than people are saying.

—

On DraftKings, I am somewhat interested in this matchup due to pacing.

Barriault especially fights at a very high pace, and like Luke noted, he’s willing to take some shots to give some. I foresee him forcing exchanges here, which should help the floor/ceiling potential for the winner.

Pyfer is priced at 9k and he’s one of my favorite top-end targets, excluding the obvious names at the top. There are others in consideration, like Simon, but Pyfer will have much better finishing equity at +110 ITD.

Plus, Pyfer can wrestle some and I wouldn’t be surprised if he landed multiple takedowns in this spot.

I suppose the issue is that if the fight extends and Pyfer wins by decision, we wouldn’t project him for enough volume to be optimal. Perhaps he could get there with wrestling, and at least that’s an additional path to scoring, but it’s tougher to be sure he’d grapple enough to stand out in this range.

The real upside comes in an early finish, which although risky, is aided by the fact that it should be an up-paced matchup. Barriault has been knocked out before, and submitted, so although he’s generally durable, there are paths for Pyfer.

When I cannot pay up to top, I don’t mind taking chances on Pyfer at all. I won’t necessarily be loading up here but he’s a strong secondary, high-upside option who I would like to mix in.

Barriault is one of the more viable cheap targets who could be used as a pivot off Chiasson and Oliveira, whom I expect to both be more popular than him.

There isn’t much wrestling equity here, and finishing equity is a concern too at +325 ITD, but Barriault just pushes such a hard pace. We’ve seen him top 100 significant strikes on several occasions, and there’s enough variance in striking exchanges where it’s possible he could hurt Pyfer as well.

I also think a competitive decision is in play for Barriault, though I’m less certain that would be optimal.

Realistically, if Chiasson and Oliveira and whoever else – Prochazka types – are winning below the mid-range, Barriault probably won’t be necessary for the optimal.

But in the case that they don’t, Barriault has a reasonable chance to score points, and at least one path to victory. For a super cheap cost of 7.2k, at a likely low public ownership, I do not mind punting with him on occasion. 

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Pyfer by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)

Cub Swanson vs. Andre Fili

Fight Odds: Fili -225, Swanson +189

Odds to Finish: -150

DraftKings Salaries: Fili 8.6k, Swanson 7.6k

Weight Class: 145

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

We have an old-school matchup here as UFC veterans Andre Fili and Cub Swanson will slug it out this weekend.

I have never minded Fili. Fili is a decent striker. He lands 3.85 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.11 in return. He defends strikes at 51 percent. Those aren’t the best striking numbers but Fili has fought good competition. 

Fili is a sharp counter striker, capable of landing knockouts with precise shots. He has good straight punches that complement his long frame and can also mix in some decent kicks.

I also consider Fili a competent grappler. He actually lands 2.16 takedowns per 15 minutes and I consider him an underrated offensive wrestler. He has a really good double leg. I don’t consider Fili’s top game all that great. However, he can hold position against weak grapplers.

Defensively, Fili is decent as a wrestler. He defends takedowns at 69 percent and is a capable scrambler once taken down. Good wrestlers like Bryce Mitchell can have success against Fili.

However, I think average or below-average grapplers will generally be neutralized by Fili.

My main concern with Fili is his chin. He has been knocked out in two of his last three losses including a first round knockout in his most recent matchup against Dan Ige.

Fili will be taking on Cub Swanson. Swanson is mostly a striker who keeps up a high pace. He lands 4.70 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.84 in return. Swanson consistently lands in volume. He landed 135 and 129 significant strikes against Kron Gracie and Shane Burgos, respectively. So he can obviously keep up a solid work rate and can generally compete on the feet.

Swanson does not wrestle offensively much and only lands 1.09 takedowns per 15 minutes. He has only landed three takedowns in his last nine UFC fights. He has also never submitted anyone in the UFC. So I can’t really expect Swanson to win fights consistently with anything other than striking based decisions or knockouts at this level.

Swanson defends takedowns at 61 percent. Early in his UFC career, he didn’t have the best takedown defense but it has gotten much better.

I am a little bit worried about Swanson’s durability given he is 40 years old now. He was knocked out by Giga Chikadze and hurt by Moicano. He was also obviously finished by Jonathan Martinez. I just feel like he is past his prime and has a negative career trajectory.

However, Swanson did show he was capable still in his last matchup, winning a close decision against Hakeem Dawodu. I didn’t think Swanson won that fight, but he fought competitively against a good fighter.

As far as this matchup goes, I think these guys will strike as neither have the best top control and both are decent defensive grapplers.

I honestly think this line is a bit wide. I don’t really understand why Fili is -250. Sure, he is younger than Swanson. However, both of these guys get hurt often so there is a lot of variance at play here.

I also just think the striking numbers will be close here. Swanson always keeps up a high work rate and Fili is not exactly a striking savant. I really just think both guys will trade competitively back and forth and we will get a close fight.

—

On DraftKings, I don’t feel super comfortable targeting this fight and I don’t see either fighter being optimal unless there’s an early knockout.

Fili is priced at 8.6k, and is honestly a value given his moneyline. However, like Tim, I don’t completely understand the line. Most likely, I think Fili trades competitively with Swanson for a few rounds. It’s arguable his durability is worse than Swanson’s at this point though. 

Fili is also +130 to win ITD which again feels high to me. But if you take it at face value, Fili has pretty strong metrics for 8.6k and he’s potentially a decent tournament option because of it.

With fighters like Pereira, Lopes and Dolidze in this range, I just don’t see people rostering Fili much, despite the value. He’s scored 100 points twice since 2015.

If I’m creating more mid-range based lineups then yes, Fili has some merit as a pivot away from the other chalk. In that sense, especially tied into his metrics, Fili is a viable secondary target, and it wouldn’t be wrong to lean into the ML value a little bit.

But he’s largely boom or bust in a mediocre matchup, and I don’t think I’ll be prioritizing him often.

Swanson at 7.6k isn’t particularly exciting to me either. He’s on the opposite side of Fili metrics wise, as a +190 dog and with a +325 ITD line. He feels overpriced at 7.6k.

Swanson likely won’t wrestle, and volume might be decent but without a finish, I don’t see a great ceiling. Swanson’s recent decision wins scored 74 and 87. You’re really hoping for a KO.

I could see some value to that though. Fili has been dropped in three of his past five fights. Swanson could be sneaky as far as KO potential, though I still don’t think he has incredible finishing equity.

I wouldn’t be surprised if these two just respected each other and sparred for a while, without getting a lot of damage done. An extended fight likely busts the matchup on both sides.

However, both sides have some viability for KO purposes. Both guys have been getting hurt recently and there’s lots of variance in striking exchanges. I think it’s fine to mix both sides in, but neither will be an exciting or safe option.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Fili by Decision (Confidence=Low)

Charles Jourdain vs. Jean Silva

Fight Odds: Jourdain -116, Silva +101

Odds to Finish: +110

DraftKings Salaries: Jourdain 8.3k, Silva 7.9k

Weight Class: 145

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

We have a pretty good scrap here in the featherweight division between Charles Jourdain and Jean Silva.

Jourdain is pretty much just a striker, though he’s a pretty fun and exciting one. Jourdain lands 5.56 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.31 in return. He defends strikes at 57 percent. Those are decent ratios and he pushes a very high pace. Jourdain also has some power and has scored two knockouts, with six knockdowns in his UFC career. 

I simply consider Jourdain a competent UFC level striker. He isn’t exceptionally powerful and is often in competitive fights, but he tends to build throughout the fight and has certainly proven himself in this promotion.

Jourdain doesn’t wrestle offensively though and has only secured one takedown in 13 UFC fights. Defensively, he is not perfect as a grappler either. He defends takedowns at 48 percent, which is awful, and surrendered 5 takedowns, 4 takedowns, and 5 takedowns against Andre Fili, Desmond Green, and Nathaniel Wood, respectively. He also surrendered takedowns to Burgos and got his back taken for a bit.

I will say though, Jourdain does scramble up well once he is taken down. Fili and Green only secured about two minutes of top control on Jourdain.

However, Jourdain is susceptible to putting himself in transitional choke attempts where he could get his neck strangled by giving up his back. Julian Erosa choked Jourdain out with a D’Arce choke on a transition when Jourdain scrambled up, and I definitely think openings will be there for other good grapplers as well. Jourdain did show he was submission capable against Ricardo Ramos though, and actually submitted Ramos with a guillotine which was impressive.

Jourdain also seems pretty durable to me. He has had 23 pro fights and (33 overall fights if you include amateurs) has never been knocked out before. He has been knocked down a couple of times and was submitted by Julian Erosa, but that was the only time he has been finished in his career.

Jourdain will be taking on Jean Silva. Silva booked his ticket to the UFC by winning on the Contender Series in a striking based decision. He outlanded his opponent 87-71 in significant strikes and landed the heavier shots in the matchup. He then knocked out Westin Wilson in round one in his UFC debut.

Silva is mostly a power striker. I consider him to have good hands and he has some power in the pocket. I definitely think he can knock out fighters at this level. I like his aggression at times too and he can use it to make opponents uncomfortable.

However, I really question this guy’s quality of competition. Silva has not beaten a single quality fighter. I am also not sure he is great defensively either. He looks susceptible to kicks. He also doesn’t look to wrestle offensively so he is limited to striking as a path to victory.

Furthermore, there is not a ton of tape on Silva regionally. However, I found his most recent loss where he was easily outwrestled and mounted for entire rounds. The bout took place in 2018 so perhaps he has improved. However, we haven’t seen much of his defensive grappling and have never seen it against any good grapplers. My guess is that he will get exposed on the mat at some point.

As far as this matchup goes, I think these guys will bang it out on the feet. Clearly, Silva has power in the pocket so if he knocks Jourdain out or lands the more impactful punches throughout the contest, I wouldn’t be shocked.

I just have my doubts on Silva though. Jourdain is extremely durable. So Jourdain being able to extend this fight seems likely. Furthermore, Jourdain is just so much more proven at this level and I tend to pick UFC veterans with a higher level of experience in matchups like this. Jourdain can also probably land leg kicks as well. I wouldn’t be surprised if Jourdain was just a level ahead of Silva.

Jourdain may be a better grappler as well, although I wouldn’t count on Jourdain actively pursuing takedowns.

I am going to go with Jourdain here. I think these guys will bang it out on the feet in a fight where both guys can surely have moments. However, Jourdain is the more proven commodity at this point so I will pick him to win.

—

On DraftKings, the fight certainly has some potential, though I wouldn’t be surprised to see it overlooked in a stacked mid-range.

Jourdain is priced at 8.3k and will be difficult to prioritize ahead of the main event, among other matchups. He’s also not the greatest fantasy asset, with minimal grappling equity.

But he does tend to build in fights, which can break opponents down the stretch, and that’s led to some nice scores. He’s put up 117 and 118 before, though his last four wins have all scored between 92-93 points.

Silva isn’t a great matchup on paper, but we’re also lacking some data here. It is possible Jourdain could have better cardio and advantages late, and the better submission game. It’s still difficult to project a dominant performance with a +375 ITD line, but there’s some merit to Jourdain’s style being too overwhelming for Silva.

It feels like Silva will be the more popular target at 7.9k, coming off a 115-point performance against some scrub in his UFC debut. He’s a short dog here against Jourdain but is actually +200 to win ITD, which is pretty strong.

Jourdain has been hurt a couple of times and I think it’s possible Silva could win by KO, but it’s not something I’d want to bet on. Jourdain is very durable historically and has never been knocked out, and he only gets better as the fight progresses.

Without any real wrestling equity himself, Silva will need a knockout to contend for the optimal lineup. Odds aren’t terrible that outcome occurs, but I don’t see many reasons to be particularly confident in that outcome either.

I may end up being light on the Silva side here, especially if the field is excited at all. He’s viable as a boom or bust secondary target, just due to power and metrics, but it’s not a great matchup and I’d rather prioritize other options.

Jourdain may actually be preferred as he’s found a way to top 92 points in all six of his UFC wins, and at 8.3k, there’s some value in that. I don’t think it’s the best matchup for him to hit a ceiling so if you’d rather look elsewhere I understand, but he seems like a viable mix-in for me with what should be relatively low public ownership.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Jourdain by Decision (Confidence=Low)

Payton Talbott vs. Yanis Ghemmouri

Fight Odds: Talbott -1497, Ghemmouri +850

Odds to Finish: -285

DraftKings Salaries: Talbott 9.8k, Ghemmouri 6.4k

Weight Class: 135

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

Hot prospect Payton Talbott will return to the Octagon this weekend after a decimation of Cameron Saaiman, which the UFC has rewarded him with a showcase matchup against a weaker opponent in Yanis Ghemmouri.

I was extremely impressed with Talbott in his last matchup against Saaiman, as Talbott absolutely dominated Saaiman and landed 79 significant strikes before securing the knockout in round two. His volume, striking, pace, and power were impressive. I think he is a legitimate prospect, and I am looking forward to seeing him progress.

Talbott booked his ticket to the UFC by defeating Reyes Cortes Jr. on the Contender Series in 2023. Talbott landed 145 significant strikes in that fight, attempted 282, and defended 16 of 17 takedowns. Talbott then made his UFC debut in a favorable matchup against grappling dependent fighter Nick Aguirre. Despite being taken down early, Talbott weathered the storm and eventually tired Aguirre out and finished him on the mat with a RNC.

You saw Talbott’s skillset in all of those fights. He is a striker. He is tall and long at 5’10” and will push a relentless pace on the feet. He walks his opponents down and really throws everything at them. He will mix in a lot of straight punches and stabbing kicks to the body. He is a good athlete and has power as well. 

I do think his defense could use some work, but his offense is good and his pace is tremendous. He reminds me of a young Sean O’Malley.

Talbott is a bit green though, and you have seen it in some of his grappling exchanges. I have seen him taken down, body triangled, and just put in some overall bad positions. I do think good grapplers could have their way with him.

However, I actually don’t think Talbott is all that easy to grapple. He also just seems to be improving. He is a really good athlete and he is quite good at giving up his back and scrambling up to his feet. You need to have good mat returns or a good body triangle to keep him down. 

He at least understands the concept of not accepting bottom position, and I really think if people don’t have good mat returns, he will generally get up. We probably have a few more fights before he will be tested by a legitimate grappler though.

Talbott will be taking on Yanis Ghemmouri. Ghemmouri is 12-2 professionally with most of his wins coming in Brave, an okay regional promotion.

He made his UFC debut against William Gomis in a fight where we bet Gomis. Ghemmouri was dominated on the feet and TKOd with a weird body shot in round three, which he claimed was a groin strike. Ghemmouri landed ZERO head strikes in a 12-minute fight which is just pathetic.

Ghemmouri is kind of a mild tempo kickboxer. He is fairly technical and has a decent jab and leg kicks. I still just don’t think he is very good though and the Gomis fight showed that. He doesn’t have a ton of volume. He has also beaten no one good. 

I also don’t think he has a ton of power and he has only won by knockout a few times. He also concedes leg kicks. I have seen him hurt a couple times too and Gomis finishing him was a bad sign.

Ghemmouri has okay takedowns and can ride top position. I am pretty confident his offensive wrestling isn’t great though, and I don’t totally trust it at the UFC level. He failed on all four takedown attempts against Gomis. Furthermore, his defensive wrestling could potentially be a liability. I haven’t seen a ton of it but a few years ago he was taken down and held down easily by a low-level opponent. I just don’t trust this guy all that much.

As far as this matchup goes, Talbott should be at an enormous advantage on the feet. Talbott is just better everywhere as a striker. Talbott is longer, more athletic, has more volume, and is just more powerful. I honestly just think Talbott will tee off on Ghemmouri and probably knock him out at some point. I just think Ghemmouri will get overwhelmed.

Maybe Ghemmouri can land a takedown or two early ? I doubt he can do much with it though as Talbott is a capable defensive wrestler. Talbott may even be able to take Ghemmouri down.

Look, Talbott is a near -2000 favorite for a reason. This is a mismatch, and I would be shocked if he lost this fight. 

—

On DraftKings, Talbott is priced up to 9.8k which is one of the highest registered prices we’ve seen in recent memory.

It makes sense based on the moneyline, and I absolutely expect Talbott to win this fight convincingly and put up a strong DK score. But that price is pretty prohibitive, and it fully puts into question whether or not he’s worth the salary.

Many will argue, he’s not worth it. It’s been proven difficult to consistently end up optimal at 9.6k, let alone 9.8k. Not only do you need big scores from cheap fighters to free up salary to pay up to 9.8k, but then you still need Talbott to vastly outperform the large majority of the top end.

Plus, he’s still likely to be popular. He’s approaching -2000 to win, and he’s -295 to win ITD. He’s coming off a 113-point score and it’s very easy to project him to smash in this matchup. The public will want to play him. (For what it’s worth, this fight was -600 to end ITD earlier in the week and Talbott was -575 to win ITD individually, which have both been bet down significantly).

There’s a pretty strong argument to make that if he projects to be chalky whatsoever, the better large-field tournament strategy is to pay down to Tsuruya, Pyfer, Simon and others with upside. If those fighters are hitting and surpassing 100 points, Talbott will have a very difficult path to the optimal.

The other side of the coin is safety, where Talbott should rank at the top of the charts this week. I’d be pretty shocked if he lost this fight, and I think it’s quite likely he wins by early or mid-round knockout.

His metrics are clearly outstanding and if I do have the salary available, of course I won’t mind plugging him in. 

Others in the top tier of pricing are much less safe. Tsuruya is 22 and making his UFC debut. Other options have much tougher matchups and/or obvious holes in their games.

If salary is not considered, Talbott will project the best. Rostering him at a moderate rate when you have the salary available is a fine strategy, and perhaps a more viable one in smaller fields where you don’t need the perfect lineup.

In large-field tournaments, I think I will pay down more often than not. Especially on a slate where there are multiple grappling options, there’s some real chance that Talbott gets outscored straight up by another fighter in the top tier.

I don’t know if there’s one right or wrong answer here, but I don’t think you should be aggressively prioritizing Talbott on this slate. I’d much rather prioritize some high-upside mid-range targets, and work from there. If Talbott fits, he fits. If not, I’m very willing to play other top-end options for a heavy discount.

Ghemmouri at 6.4k won’t make my player pool.

The only real argument for him is grappling, where he’s ok. Perhaps he could land a takedown. I just don’t see much of a finishing threat from him, and he’s not really a volume wrestler either.

He should be extremely far behind in striking exchanges, and ultimately he’s a heavy underdog with terrible metrics. He’s +1250 to win ITD.

Yes, you’re getting extreme leverage here and Ghemmouri may be sub 5% owned, so if that alone interests you, feel free to punt with him once or twice in a maxed out portfolio. Otherwise, I’d much rather focus on fighters with real win equity.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Talbott by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=High)

Michelle Waterson-Gomez vs. Gillian Robertson

Fight Odds: Robertson -185, Waterson-Gomez +158

Odds to Finish: +130

DraftKings Salaries: Robertson 8.7k, Waterson-Gomez 7.5k

Weight Class: 115

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

We have an interesting fight here between Gillian Robertson and Michelle Waterson.

Grappling is all Robertson really does, and she is pretty much only going to win fights by submission or by three-round decision with top time. 

Robertson’s striking is not very good. She lands 2.61 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.12 in return. She defends strikes at 56 percent. The purpose of her striking is just to limit striking engagements and set up her takedowns. She isn’t going to win many rounds on the feet.

Robertson’s takedowns are pretty decent for WMMA. She has a good single leg and a lot of takedown diversity. She lands 2.53 takedowns per 15 minutes and lands takedowns at a 43 percent rate. Once she gets on top, she is very dangerous and skilled as a submission grappler.

Her passing stats are off the charts. I won’t go too much into detail with them. However, she basically gets a pass or two for every takedown that she lands. So she is very capable of getting to dominant positions like back takes and locking in submissions.

I have never liked Robertson’s physicality. She sometimes has major issues when she goes against strong girls. Santos and Maverick were able to neutralize Robertson because they were much more physical than her.

However, she looks a lot bigger and stronger at strawweight and I think the drop in weight class was a great decision by her. So perhaps physicality will not be as big of an issue for her going forward.

One thing people seem to forget is that Robertson is not a good defensive wrestler. She defends takedowns at 43 percent and isn’t really interested in defending takedowns. It makes sense because she wants the fight on the mat anyway which is fine. However, on her back, she can actually be controlled and her get ups are not great. So she is prone to being controlled on the mat herself which is something that people probably overlook. 

Robertson can attack with good armbars off her back. However, she needs to be in top position to win fights, and I don’t like that she can be controlled on the mat.

Robertson will be taking on Michelle Waterson. Waterson has lost six of her last seven fights so this is a big matchup for her.

Waterson is okay but I have never really liked her game that much. She comes from a karate background which just isn’t the best base for MMA striking or MMA in general.

Waterson lands 3.56 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.19 in return. She defends strikes at 49 percent. Those aren’t good metrics. I also just don’t love her striking style. She kind of manages range and tries to land point scoring kicks. Her competition has been really good though and I do think she can outstrike poor strikers.

Waterson is a decent grappler. She lands 1.42 takedowns per 15 minutes and attempts about 4.5 takedowns per fight. She isn’t a great wrestler and is too reliant on head-and-arm throws. However, she is capable of tricky backtakes, and I don’t completely dismiss her grappling ability.

Waterson’s defensive wrestling and grappling has been hard for me to get a read on. She defends takedowns at 72 percent. Early in Waterson’s career, I didn’t totally like the way she defended takedowns. However, she defended 9/10 takedowns against Carla Esparza and used great footwork to evade Esparza and keep it difficult for Esparza to track her down. Other than that, Waterson just has not gone up against a ton of grapplers so I am a little puzzled here.

I still don’t totally trust footwork as an answer to takedowns. I would have much rather seen Waterson defend Esparza by showing actual good wrestling technique like sprawls, whizzers, underhooks, etc. Nevertheless, it was good to see her avoid getting taken down. Waterson has been submitted four times but all of those losses came so long ago, so it is tough to read much from that.

As far as this matchup, I am pretty torn. I really do think Waterson is live because she can certainly score offense in this fight. Waterson is a better and more experienced striker than Robertson. If this stays standing for whatever reason, Waterson could easily win. 

I also really think Waterson could sneakily land takedowns here as well. Robertson has bad tdd. Waterson could land some strikes, land some takedowns, neutralize Robertson in top position, and win some rounds and win this fight.

I am just really torn on whether or not Robertson can land takedowns herself here. I still don’t totally trust Waterson’s tdd just because of the Esparza fight, and I do think Robertson is a better processed grappler than Waterson. I also don’t know what to make of Waterson’s submission defense. If Robertson gets Waterson’s back, will Waterson just get submitted easily? I really don’t know.

I am torn here guys. Both girls have clear paths to victory, and we haven’t seen Waterson go up against many wrestlers and grapplers like Robertson. I still really like Robertson’s takedowns and top game and she should have a size advantage here. So I am going to go with Robertson to win even though I am not entirely sure what to expect.

—

On DraftKings, this is one potentially viable matchup that could be overlooked by the public.

Robertson is priced at 8.7k, and she’s always in play to a degree, just based on her aggressive grappling style. When she wins, it comes from takedowns, control, ground strikes and a submission. That can score well.

In wins, she’s put up 105, 106, 96, 117, 94, 92, 110, 106, 97 and 98. That’s a pretty large sample of strong results and if I’m being quite honest, looking at it on paper probably gets me more excited than I was to begin writing this.

But that’s the point, Robertson is viable because of her style. Now she’s in a matchup against Waterson which, like Tim described, is tough to be sure of. I like Robertson as a processed grappler but she is not an elite wrestler and Waterson is a veteran grappler who could potentially neutralize her.

Or, Waterson might just get taken down, give up her back and tap out. I think both outcomes are pretty legitimately in play.

So while Robertson doesn’t feel like a priority, I don’t expect her to be extreme chalk on a slate with big names priced right below her. Perhaps her recent results, and track record, and slotting next to Bueno Silva will be enough to draw attention. But I think most will feel uncertain about analyzing the matchup and that will limit the amount of people who really jam her in.

Robertson is +165 here which is good. I still don’t think she’s a lock and load play because despite the upside case for her, I don’t feel super confident that she hits it. There are plenty of fighters on this slate who I like enough that I won’t outright prioritize Robertson.

But I do want to make it a point to target her, and I wouldn’t mind being overweight just based on her style, and her potentially lower than usual ownership. She’ll fit in best for me in more mid-range based constructions.

Waterson at 7.5k is viable though I don’t really like her, and I don’t think the public will like her either.

She’s coming off so many losses, and she’s +650 ITD. Despite her being live on the ML at +158, I don’t think she’ll be owned much.

It’s tough because most likely, Robertson is the better wrestler and grappler in which case Waterson will be limited to defending, throwing a few strikes and eeking out a decision. That won’t score well and I’m not interested in targeting her based on that reflection.

However, it’s possible that Robertson is not better, primarily as a wrestler, in which case Waterson could be the one landing takedowns. I still don’t think she would submit Robertson but the potential addition of three takedowns does impact scoring. You’re turning a 60 point win into a 75 point win. Is that enough? Still probably not.

But it’s possible Waterson won’t be owned much and could be used as a direct pivot off of the much higher owned Chiasson, and potentially work as leverage against Robertson herself.

If Waterson wins, she will have a chance to be the lowest owned dog winner, in which case, maybe she has mild value. I won’t go crazy here obviously but there’s at least a win condition for Waterson and mild grappling equity, at an intriguing price point.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Robertson by RNC, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium-Low)

Andrei Arlovski vs. Martin Buday

Fight Odds: Buday -255, Arlovski +211

Odds to Finish: +115

DraftKings Salaries: Buday 9.1k, Arlovski 7.1k

Weight Class: HW

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

I don’t know how much more motivation I have to break down Andrei Arlovski fights. He is now 756 years old and all of his fights end in a boring, close decision. It is hard to get excited for this guy’s matchups but I will do the best I can here.

Arlovski has like 500 UFC fights at this point. He is 45 years old and all of his fights basically look the same. They take place on the feet and generally go the distance. 14 of Arlovski’s last 18 fights in the UFC have gone the distance. That is unheard of at heavyweight. 

It makes sense though. Arlovski just isn’t a finisher, with minimal power for a HW. In fact, Arlovski has not won a fight by knockout or landed a knockdown in his last 23 fights which has been the equivalent of 57 rounds. That is honestly mind boggling at HW.

Arlovski is a decent round winner on the feet though. He lands 3.78 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.20 in return. He defends strikes at 57 percent.  Arlovski has shown solid boxing throughout his career, along with a decent leg kicking game. He can mix it up on the feet, won’t gas, and stays composed for 15 minutes.

Arlovski does not grapple much offensively. He lands 0.38 takedowns per 15 minutes and has not landed a takedown in his last 13 UFC fights. I can’t really predict him to go to a wrestling game plan. If he does, it would be just a random outcome rather than a predictable event. Defensively, Arlovski is fine as a grappler and defends takedowns at 76 percent.

I hate Arlovski’s age though. I thought he looked bad in his recent matchup against Mayes where he lost by knockout. He just looked a bit older and declined. However, his last fight against Waldo Cortes-Acosta ended up being quite competitive and Arlovski actually outlanded Acosta 58-49 in significant strikes.

Arlovski will be taking on Martin Buday. Buday is kind of a clinching wrestler and boxer. He comes from a wrestling background. However, he has only landed one takedown in his UFC career. 

I don’t have all that much confidence in him landing takedowns in general. He does seem decent on top if he gets it there though and I do think he could potentially take down weak grapplers.

Buday just generally ends up in the clinch and tries to strike and lean on dirty boxing. That is how he beat Chris Barnett. He clinched him up and kind of just beat him up. I do think his clinch game is a path to victory at this level. It also just looks like he can fight for 15 minutes which is valuable in this division.

Buday lands 5.17 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 5.70 in return. He generally has success with strikes in the clinch, and I don’t trust him as much at distance. He is at least a competent boxer at range. However, he was outlanded 118-66 against Lukasz Brzeski in a fight the judges should have given to Brzeski. 

I just don’t totally trust Buday’s range striking game or his volume from that range. I also thought he looked really bad in his last matchup against Shamil Gaziev. He got walked down and dominated.

I don’t know man. Buday is fine but he’s not good or anything. He has okay cardio, clinching, and striking for a big man. However, I don’t think he is particularly good anywhere.

As far as this matchup goes, My guess is it will stay on the feet like most of Arlovski’s fights. I do think if someone gets takedowns, it will be Buday. However, I just do not trust Buday to go to a grappling game plan and Buday may not even be able to land takedowns if he tries. My guess is that they strike in a somewhat boring boxing fight.

On the feet, I honestly probably favor Arlovski based on his metrics, quality of competition, and experience. I see no reason why Arlovski can’t fight competitively on the feet vs Buday. Arlovski is probably a more skillful striker in general.

Buday is younger though so perhaps those attributes can allow Buday to win this fight on the feet. I definitely think the youth of Buday is driving this line which I somewhat understand. Maybe Arlovski just looks old, slow, and awful which can allow Buday to dominate. I also think Buday has more paths to victory, which includes his potential grappling path.

I don’t know though. Arlovski looked like himself against Acosta which was earlier this year. I think this line is too wide, and I expect this to be a competitive fight which will probably go the distance and generally play out on the feet. I am not confident Arlovski wins at all, but I will pick him just to signal that this line seems far too wide.

—

On DraftKings, this isn’t a fight that I will choose to prioritize often.

Buday is priced up to 9.1k, and will need a very early knockout to contend with the optimal lineup. My worry is that even if he gets it, he may not have a great chance to stand out amongst this range.

His first-round sub against Parisian scored 119 points, and that type of result would probably be good enough. That came with a takedown, 42 sig. strikes, two minutes of control, and a first-round finish. It feels difficult to produce against Arlovski.

But it’s not impossible. A first-round KO is certainly on the table, just given Arlovski’s age and history. He’s clearly deteriorating a bit and my expectation is he’ll be hurt and finished again sometime soon.

He fights at a slow pace though and is defensively oriented. I’ve faded him and failed on several occasions.

In a range where there are at least three, if not more clear priorities, I just won’t end up with too much exposure to Buday. He’s very boom or bust and he’s coming off an awful performance. It’s really difficult to have faith.

He’ll rate out best as a contrarian target, of which he has some value. Especially if you can only pay 9.2k or below, that’s when I’ll consider Buday the most. In comparison to Pyfer, Simon and Bueno Silva, sure, Buday can potentially beat them out.

He’s +140 to win ITD which is fine but the fight is -180 to go over 2.5 rounds. It’s tough to get too excited when he needs a first-round KO.

I’ll consider Buday a bit for contrarian purposes, but the matchup makes me very hesitant as does Buday as a talent.

Arlovski at 7.1k could win the fight, and in theory, that makes him viable to a degree.

The problem really comes with the ceiling in which Arlovski hasn’t shown upside in a long time. His recent wins have scored 69, 57, 63, 74, 44 and 50. My guess is that a score in that range, even at 7.1k, probably won’t be enough to be optimal.

Arlovski is only +750 to win ITD and he has almost no grappling equity, so he’d really need an early finish to capitalize. My only hesitation is that Buday has shown pretty major issues, and mayyyyyybe Arlovski could randomly hurt him.

I expect Arlovski to be low owned, and if the slate plays out with 0-2 underdogs winning, perhaps Arlovski could contend for the optimal lineup with a 60-70 point score. Playing a small amount of him in tournaments is viable for that reason.

But I will definitely be prioritizing ceiling below the mid-range, of which there are many options. That won’t leave me punting with Arlovski often, though I fully acknowledge the fight could play out competitively.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Buday by Decision (Confidence=Low)

Rei Tsuruya vs. Carlos Hernandez

Fight Odds: Tsuruya 437, Hernandez +335

Odds to Finish: -190

DraftKings Salaries: Tsuruya 9.3k, Hernandez 6.9k

Weight Class: 125

Following in the steps of fellow Japanese flyweight Tatsuro Taira, the UFC will introduce another intriguing prospect on Saturday by the name of Rei Tsuruya, who will take on Carlos Hernandez for his promotional debut.

Tsuruya is 9-0 professionally at age 22, which I want to highlight because it’s an important element of his profile. Despite being a potential blue-chipper with strong skills and an impressive pedigree, Tsuruya is quite young and is still very much in the development stage of the game. Expecting him to be fully polished at this point isn’t fair.

However, it’s quite likely that the skills Tsuruya does have will be enough to push him into the rankings and potentially into contention over the next few years.

And for the most part, his skills begin and end on the mat.

Tsuruya is a Junior Olympic wrestler, who has been competing on the international scene in the sport and in BJJ since he was a kid.

His wrestling looks very strong and multi-dimensional, and he’s shown the ability to chain through various attacks in order to get the fight to the mat. He has a Greco Roman background which highlights the upper body, so he’s pretty strong in the clinch and is very willing to toss opponents once he secures underhooks.

I’ve also seen him dive on single legs in space, which is the shot I prefer, and his overall wrestling quality looks to be top-notch, at least in comparison to his age.

On the mat, Tsuruya is a real threat, though I believe he’s only a purple belt in jiu-jitsu. He has fantastic transitions to the back, and to the truck, which he will set up constantly to attack for Twisters.

I’m sure there is some level of opponent whose physicality and technique will be enough to neutralize Tsuruya, but against anyone mediocre or worse, Tsuruya should dominate.

We also have a decent tracked sample of him since he competed three times in Road to UFC, winning the title in February with a first-round TKO.

In his first bout, Tsuruya landed three takedowns in six minutes, earning 5+ minutes of control while hunting for that Twister, and ultimately submitted his opponent with an arm trap off a head-arm throw in the second round.

Most recently, he landed one early takedown, controlled his opponent on the mat and landed ground-and-pound for a TKO stoppage.

It was the fight in between those that gives me the most pause, which Tsuruya won by decision.

In that fight, Tsuruya landed eight takedowns, and had lots of control, but he definitely slowed down a bit and ate some shots late in the fight that nearly broke him. He was literally dropped with a head kick in the final minute of the fight, but actually was able to reverse position and end up comfortably on top once his opponent chased him to the mat.

What it primarily signals to me is that he’s not ready to compete on the feet just yet, and potentially, it could be the difference long term between Tsuruya being a legitimate prospect, or not.

He fights out of the Southpaw stance and will still explode into strikes, but he’s not the most physical fighter and he’s going to be largely dependent on single shots, rather than combinations. He’ll dart in and out of the pocket, rather than fighting in extended combinations.

That style is fine, as it means he won’t get hit too often, and as long as he can land takedowns, he’ll win. But in pure kickboxing exchanges, I cannot count on volume, or damage, and I have some concerns about Tsuruya losing minutes or getting hurt.

The longer the fight goes too, the more potential there is for Tsuruya to get tired. His cardio looks fine, but ultimately, if he’s not on top in control, there’s reason to be concerned.

Overall, Tsuruya is a really good athlete and a really good grappler, and he has the makings of a legit prospect. I do expect some learning curves as he takes steps up in this division, and it’s difficult to say when those will come.

His first UFC test will be against Carlos Hernandez, who I’d argue, is a real test in some regard.

Hernandez isn’t a terrible opponent for Tsuruya, as Hernandez isn’t a great athlete, nor a great wrestler. He’s been taken down by four of his last five opponents, and he only defends at 65 percent.

There’s a very strong chance Tsuruya shoots in early, takes Hernandez down, takes his back and finishes the fight.

However, Hernandez is not one to quit. He won his DWCS bout in 2021 despite getting taken down five times. He knocked Denys Bondar out cold late in the fight in 2023, who has a grappling pedigree. When Hernandez gets taken down, he will try to get back up and he’s at least adequate in that regard.

He’s also a decent boxer and that’s his primary strength. He lands 4.95 sig. strikes per minute and his volume and technique is certainly enough to win rounds.

It’s just that Hernandez is a limited athlete, with limited wrestling and limited power, so unless he gets 15 minutes to box at distance, he doesn’t have a ton of win equity.

Let me put it this way. If Hernandez and Tsuruya box for 15 minutes, I’m taking Hernandez pretty comfortably. Perhaps Tsuruya could avoid or minimize exchanges, or kick at the legs of Hernandez a bit. But I’d favor Hernandez to land more volume and potentially damage Tsuruya along the way.

It should also be noted that Hernandez just fought Taira, who knocked him out at distance, so perhaps Hernandez’ durability is in question. I just haven’t seen anything from Tsuruya at distance to suggest he can really make an impact.

Regardless, I don’t think this fight is playing out at distance. I think Tsuruya will hunt for takedowns almost immediately, and I think he’ll be successful. Hernandez will fight out of them but will probably give up his back doing so, and I trust the control and attack from Tsuruya at that point.

He’ll likely hunt for Twisters again, or perhaps the RNC, which Hernandez tapped to in 2023 against Allan Nascimento.

Even if the fight hits round two, Tsuruya should be ok as long as his cardio holds up. He is simply a much superior grappler and I think we’ll see that play out once the fight hits the mat. Even in a decision, Tsuruya should have enough control and ground attacks to win multiple rounds.

The issue is just that the longer the fight goes, the more Hernandez fights out of stuff, the more potential there is for Tsuruya to get tired. At some point, he could no longer have the energy to land takedowns, in which case, he could be in danger of getting boxed up and losing.

I’m going to pick Tsuruya to get it done, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he largely dominated early exchanges before finding a submission.

—

On DraftKings, Tsuruya is priced at 9.3k and he’ll be one of my favorite targets on the slate.

He’s nearly -500 to win, and -200 to win ITD, with a grappling heavy style, which is the best way to score points. Those metrics in theory give Tsuruya one of the better floors and ceilings on the slate, and he could be prioritized for those reasons.

On the Road to UFC, Tsuruya scored (approximately) 111, 105 and 117 in his three wins, which is another indicator of upside. Granted, those wins came against fighters worse than ones we should expect him to face in the UFC, but those scores are largely a reflection of his style.

If he gets tired and loses a fight, so be it. But when Tsuruya wins, it’s going to come from takedowns, control, and probably a finish. His ability to land takedowns in volume is also a key piece to the puzzle, and ultimately, I’d consider him an elite fantasy option week to week.

On this particular slate, he’s fighting an opponent who will give up takedowns, and in a win, I think it’s quite likely he can exceed 100 points and contend for the optimal lineup.

Perhaps the one limitation I’ve seen with Tsuruya comes with his willingness to land strikes on the mat. He does, but most often from mount or from the flattened back. If he’s just transitioning from position to position, there’s some potential for him to miss out on the upside of 200+ non-sig. strikes and therefore limit his ceiling slightly.

But any fighter who can land 5-10 takedowns + fish for finishes while controlling their opponent is going to rate extremely highly in my book. We’re getting him at a $500 discount from Talbott which could easily make the difference in pricing on the optimal lineup.

I have no problem prioritizing Tsuruya straight up over Talbott, though there is slightly more risk here given the age and UFC debut. It’s simply difficult for me to pass up on this kind of fighting style, and despite any risk or question mark, I’m fairly willing to shove it on Tsuruya this week.

Hernandez at 6.9k doesn’t interest me too much. In theory, he has a path to victory. He’s more experienced than Tsuruya.

There’s also the potential binary dynamic which could play to his favor. If he simply keeps the fight at boxing range, Hernandez could win comfortably.

But I don’t think that will translate into scoring. He’s very likely to get held down for minutes at a time, and his floor is extremely low because of it.

Even at distance, Tsuruya probably won’t force exchanges. It’s just not a great recipe for Hernandez to score points. The best case scenario is that he can hurt Tsuruya badly and find a mid-round knockout, but I’m not too willing to invest in that outcome personally.

Perhaps if you’re super heavy on Tsuruya and just want to hedge a little, having exposure to Hernandez makes sense. Or if you simply need to punt, where Hernandez is cheap and can provide some leverage.

But there are better dogs with more win equity and upside on this slate, and I will generally choose to prioritize them, leaving me with limited or no exposure to Hernandez this week.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Tsuruya by Twister, RD 1 (Confidence=Medium-High)

Ricky Simon vs. Vinicius Oliveira

Fight Odds: Simon -240, Oliveira +200

Odds to Finish: -150

DraftKings Salaries: Simon 8.9k, Oliveira 7.3k

Weight Class: 135

Coming off one of the knockouts of the year, Vinicius Oliveira will be looking to collect another highlight reel as he takes on a more experienced talent in Ricky Simon.

Oliveira defeated Bernardo Sopaj in his UFC debut in March, chasing him down in the final seconds to land a clean flying knee to chin that crumpled Sopaj. It only further adds to Oliveira’s resume, as he’s earned 16 wins by knockout and another couple by submission.

Oliveira is a dangerous muay-thai striker who is here to entertain. He’s flashy. He’s a showboater. And he has no problems putting himself in danger to hunt for knockouts.

Unfortunately, we’ve seen that there’s limitations to this game, which has largely resulted in Oliveira getting hurt. All three of his pro losses have come by knockout, and a couple of them have been bad.

Even in that fight with Sopaj, Oliveira was clearly losing the first round and a half before he mounted a comeback once Sopaj was completely gassed out. Sopaj was able to land a few takedowns early, and get dominant positions like the mount and the back. He just couldn’t sustain any pace and once Oliveira escaped in the second round, Sopaj was a sitting duck.

It’s still a decent performance from Oliveira all things considered, who showed he at least has the cardio to go three rounds. But I expect his defensive lapses both on the feet and on the ground will continue to hinder him, as will his Fight IQ.

One example of that was in his most recent TKO loss on the regional scene, where Oliveira leg kicked his opponent, pointed and laughed, and then got immediately rocked. Later in the fight, the announcers were literally talking about how nervous they were that Oliveira was getting too reckless, and only moments later he was knocked out cold.

Oliveira will wing punches as he chases opponents, and that aggression will continue to lead to dangerous moments, but he’s simply lacking some technique and he leaves himself open defensively.

I do generally like his kicking game though, as he comes from a soccer background. He can throw hard leg kicks which is a strong tool to have, and he clearly carries power in his strikes. He rates out as the type who will often win by KO due to his willingness to chase them, but he will likely lose by KO as well.

His next opponent will be Ricky Simon, who feels like a much tougher test than anyone Oliveira has faced thus far.

Simon is very experienced and fairly well-rounded, and he’s been competing in the UFC since 2018 where he’s fought guys like Merab Dvalishvili, Montel Jackson, Rob Font, Raphael Assuncao, Jack Shore and Song Yadong.

I consider Simon to be a decent round winner, but I’ve also been lower on him than the public in recent spots as his game doesn’t have too much depth to it.

Simon’s best skill is his wrestling, where he’s been able to land 5.49 takedowns per 15 minutes. He’s topped out at 14, 7, 7, 7, 6 and 6 takedowns through several of his tracked fights in the UFC and DWCS, which is really impressive volume.

Any time a fighter can land 5-10 takedowns in a fight, I’m going to be a fan to a certain extent because that’s one of the toughest fighting methods to stop.

However, Simon isn’t a great submission grappler, and he’s not a great control grappler, so he has a very difficult time producing offense once he takes opponents down. That’s why they generally get back up, and he’s forced to continue shooting takedowns over and over.

I’ve caught onto that trend for a while, and I faded Simon in his most recent matchup against Mario Bautista, who’s a better distance striker and in theory had enough scrambling to get up if Simon took him down. Simon landed only 2/13 takedowns, and he was only able to control Bautista for three minutes, and ultimately lost a decision while getting outstruck 112 to 45.

That type of path to victory is going to be a clear one for all of Simon’s opponents, including Oliveira.

If Oliveira can simply keep this fight upright, he’ll have a chance to exceed the volume of Simon and win. Simon has also been dropped a few times, so Oliveira will have some knockout equity as well.

Simon should have a decent wrestling floor here though, as Oliveira’s takedown defense seems questionable. He did not look strong in defense against Sopaj, and giving up the mount and the back is not a great look.

I am not very confident Simon can actually get to dominant positions, as Oliveira is a purple belt in BJJ, but it feels quite likely that Simon can land takedowns if he attempts them, which I am expecting. It’s possible that he can wrestle enough to tire Oliveira out, control him, and potentially do some damage on the mat.

Also, Simon should have some knockout equity as well against a defensively lacking opponent in Oliveira. I don’t love his boxing or volume, but he’s shown power in the past, and Oliveira is often completely wide open.

It wouldn’t be shocking if Oliveira fought aggressively, and got himself countered and hurt while in the pocket. That is a clear path to finishing for Simon, though it’s a little tough to bet on.

Overall, I think it’s fair to favor Simon in this spot due to his wrestling advantages, and general defense and experience. Oliveira tends to lose in dominant fashion so I wouldn’t be shocked if that trend continues as well.

However, if Simon is not actively wrestling, he’s a bit vulnerable. If Oliveira can defend takedowns or scramble up, I’m not confident Simon wins easily, let alone at all. And Oliveira could land some leg kicks, have a few big moments, or land some damage that turns the tide of the fight once again.

—-

On DraftKings, Simon is priced up to 8.9k and he’ll be in play due to his wrestling and finishing equity.

I really don’t trust parts of Simon’s game, but he’s shown a lot of DraftKings upside in the past. His wins have resulted in scores of 112, 106, 98, 131, 107, 101, 89, 79 and 121, which is an average of 104 points.

Partly that’s due to his ability to land 5+ takedowns, which I think is once again in play in this particular matchup.

Additionally, while I don’t consider Simon a strong finisher and his ITD line is only +175, he arguably has more KD equity here than in past matchups due to Oliveira’s weak defense. If Simon wins, I think there are multiple ways in which he could reach a ceiling, so I’m inclined to consider him this week.

I do like a few names at the top, but some of them are expensive, and Simon feels like a safe paydown option at 8.9k that won’t break the bank. He’s far from a guarantee, but I’m happy to continue to invest in that wrestling heavy style, and I think another 100 point score is within reach for Simon in a win.

Oliveira at 7.3k has some viability, though it’s not the best matchup for him.

Really, you’re chasing another knockout, as I don’t think Oliveira has any real wrestling equity, and Simon will probably fight in a manner which limits some of Oliveira’s volume potential.

If you need a paydown option with some upside, I don’t hate Oliveira, who is +225 to win ITD. That’s a very strong metric and potentially one indicator that he could be a popular cheap target this week, along with folks who will chase his debut box score of 99 points.

Also, as this is the first fight of the night, it doesn’t hurt to grab a couple shares just in case you’re the type who wants to sweat the entire card. While I won’t predict a KO for Oliveira, I never enjoy losing my entire night on the first fight.

Regardless, Oliveira has some finishing equity against an opponent who’s been hurt before. He has a path to victory.

I would probably aim to be light here on general analysis because Oliveira should have a low floor, and a questionable ceiling that’s dependent on a knockout. But he’s the type to create some high-variance exchanges, and Simon struggles to control opponents at times.

There’s room for something random to happen and for Oliveira to get another KO. He’s a viable secondary target at 7.3k this week, though with a limited portfolio, I don’t expect I’ll roster him more than the field.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Simon by Decision (Confidence=Medium)