UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic (11/16/24)
Note: Please read the full analysis, that is much more important than who I pick to win. The confidence relates to my pick to win, not the path to victory. Picks are NOT bets. Matchup breakdowns are written by Brett unless otherwise noted, and all DraftKings analysis is written by Brett. Both Technical Tim and Luke Lampe will also contribute to matchup breakdowns.
MAIN CARD
Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic
Fight Odds: Jones -630, Miocic +448
Odds to Finish: -500
DraftKings Salaries: Jones 9.5k, Miocic 6.7k
Weight Class: HW
A legacy is on the line for Jon Jones, who admittedly believes defeating 42-year old former HW champion Stipe Miocic off a 3.5 year layoff is going to cement his status as the GOAT in mixed martial arts.
Sure, when it was time to face off with Ciryl Gane for the HW belt in 2023, it was about earning the strap. But now that Top Aspinall has claimed the Interim HW championship in dominating fashion, Jones needs to face off with Miocic who can barely speak, let alone fight, to cement his “legacy.”
Jones will enter this weekend’s matchup against Miocic as a dominating favorite, and frankly, it’s difficult to know what to expect from either side.
Miocic last fought in 2021 where he was knocked out by Francis Ngannou in the second round. He had two very competitive matchups with Daniel Cormier in 2019-20, and prior to that he was also knocked out by Cormier in 2018.
When Miocic last fought, he looked washed. Francis Ngannou is a very powerful knockout artist, but Miocic wasn’t taking damage well.
When he fought Cormier five years ago, he still didn’t look great. Metrics wise, Miocic put up a reasonable effort, landing 123 and 115 significant strikes over four and five rounds. He even made an impressive mid-fight adjustment to attack the body of Cormier in their second matchup, which led to a late TKO stoppage victory.
Still, Cormier landed 181 and 105 sig. strikes in those matchups as well, and neutralized the wrestling.
At this point in Miocic’s career, I don’t have faith that he can put on a real quality performance for 25 minutes. I think it’s much more likely he looks slow, depleted, and gets hurt at some point.
From a macro sense, Miocic is a solid boxer and a solid wrestler though. He averages 4.82 sig. strikes per minute and absorbs 3.82 per minute. He lands 1.86 takedowns per 15 minutes and defends at 68 percent.
Miocic can arguably have success in the pocket and mid-range with his boxing. He has some power and it’s the HW division, so there is knockout upside. He’s also shown enough cardio to go the full 25 minute distance.
Against Jon Jones specifically, I trust even less that Miocic can string together quality offense.
Jones himself hasn’t fought often, taking only the Gane fight since 2020, where he won a close decision over Dominick Reyes. Prior to that, Jones edged out Thiago Santos in an ugly split decision.
Jones was once a great fighter. Now I’m not so sure. He’s still an athletic beast, and his skill set should be enough to neutralize most opponents.
But Jones is kind of a range striker, not necessarily a major power threat. In fact, Jones has only landed one knockdown in his last 43 rounds..
His top game is fantastic, and in his prime, he could pin down his opponents and beat the crap out of them to earn a stoppage. Now, I’m much less sure that he’s an efficient wrestler, and beating Ciryl Gane who didn’t know how to grapple doesn’t necessarily change my opinion in that sense.
But point aside, Jones can wrestle too. He lands 4.29 sig. strikes while absorbing 2.22 per minute with a 64 percent defensive rate. He lands 1.93 takedowns per 15 minutes and defends at 95 percent.
Jones is just a better defensive fighter than Miocic and has done a much better job throughout his career at limiting damage. He’s also one of the most durable fighters in the sport’s history, and he’s never been knocked down. I don’t think there’s much of a chance he will be outwrestled either.
If I have to make a prediction, which I am obligated to do under my contract with EstablishTheRun, LLC, I think that Jones probably hurts Miocic at some point.
The fight could also be super boring if Miocic has anything left in the tank.
Jones will probably want to stay fully on the outside and kick, where he has a real advantage. But it will be range finding, and not guaranteed to really hurt Miocic. Then he’ll want to clinch, and wrestle with Miocic.
Miocic really just needs to find the pocket and box, as that’s the only place he can land offense.
There is a real chance though that if Miocic has some durability left, that Jones will just run around and kick him, and then the two will neutralize each other and clinch for a huge percentage of the fight.
Jones could wrestle Miocic and hurt him on the mat, but he’s not been a volume wrestler in recent years and there’s no guarantee he has an easy time getting Miocic down. Miocic will want to clinch and wrestle too but he has a very small chance of being successful there, other than just holding Jones against the cage.
Maybe someone gets hurt at distance. Of the two, it seems overwhelmingly likely that it’s Miocic getting hurt. That feels pretty reasonable too and probably the outcome I’ll pick. If not, Jones probably just does a little bit more per round and wins a decision.
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On DraftKings, Jones is priced up to 9.5k and he’ll have real viability based on the five-round matchup.
He’ll carry knockdown equity against Miocic, he’ll have potential to control Miocic in the clinch and on the mat as well. Over five rounds, his strikes could add up and we could see him be among the top overall scorers on the slate.
However, I just don’t have the best read here because I don’t fully know what to expect from the Miocic side. Jones also hasn’t been the best fantasy asset throughout his career, unless he’s taking you down and pummeling you on the mat.
In recent wins, Jones has scored 104, 85, 54, 141 and 77, which basically shows you the entire range of outcomes. The 141 score came with three takedowns and 14 minutes of control. The 54 score came in five rounds of kickboxing.
I personally feel that this fight could be slower paced and boring, but also, Miocic might just die from one of the first strikes he takes. Jones is -300 to win ITD. I think it’s fair to consider Jones a strong fantasy target regardless, but is he actually a stand out at 9.5k? My gut says no.
I assume he’ll be quite popular, but with Nickal and Onama nearby, as well as Oliveira, maybe Jones won’t be as chalky as we’d expect to see a big main event favorite on other slates.
I lean toward playing Jones in smaller fields and/or cash games where safety and floor is more paramount, but I also think there’s a decent chance someone in this range outscores him. It’s not a terrible place to pivot if he does project to be chalk.
With a smaller portfolio, I may choose to pivot away from Jones more often than the field, but he should score well in a win regardless, and it will likely come down to pricing and other scores in this range.
Miocic at 6.7k has viability as a five-round underdog, but I hate the matchup for him.
It’s not even that he can’t compete or can’t win based on profile, but Jones just doesn’t really allow a lot of offense. I don’t think Micoic can have any real wrestling success, nor will he land lots of strikes.
In five rounds, I could see Miocic landing 80 strikes or something. It’s not the worst option for a cash game, but I still don’t love him there.
He’s a huge dog and +575 to win ITD, and there are actually a few other fighters in this range who I feel more comfortable about targeting for win equity. I don’t expect Miocic to be very popular despite the name and main event status, but he’s only a low-end secondary target at best for me, and I just don’t plan on investing much here.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Jones by TKO, RD 3 (Confidence=Medium-High)
Charles Oliveira vs. Michael Chandler
Fight Odds: Oliveira -263, Chandler +217
Odds to Finish: -800
DraftKings Salaries: Oliveira 9k, Chandler 7.2k
Weight Class: 155
Finally, after sitting on the sidelines for two years in hopes of fighting Conor McGregor, Michael Chandler will return to the Octagon for a rematch against the ultra-dangerous Charles Oliveira.
These two last competed in 2021, when Oliveira knocked Chandler out in the second round. There are a few different possibilities as to how this rematch will play out, but not many of them favor Chandler.
Chandler made his mark in Bellator for many years, though I never thought he was the best talent. He comes from a high pedigree wrestling background, but typically prefers to stand and trade where he has knockout power.
Among other issues, Chandler doesn’t have the best cardio, and so he usually needs to find that killshot early to get his hand raised.
He sure did that against Tony Ferguson in 2022, when Chandler landed an insane kick to knock Ferguson out cold in the second round, which will be played on his highlight reel for years to come.
Oliveira has also had his ups and downs, and he’s taken his bumps and bruises over a long UFC tenure. He lost his championship to Islam Makhachev in 2022 and was recently defeated by Arman Tsarukyan as well, though that matchup was highly competitive.
Oliveira’s biggest strides have honestly been in his ability to withstand some punishment and fight through adversity. It used to be his calling card – he couldn’t withstand any adversity. But he’s grown in large measure and that’s only added to his game, where he holds the UFC record for most finishes and most submissions in the promotion’s history.
When these two last fought, Oliveira took Chandler down early in the first round and took his back. Chandler was eventually able to reverse the position, and he ended up on top where he landed some very hard shots that had many screaming for a potential stoppage. Oliveira survived that, and then proceeded to knock Chandler down and out within 20 seconds of the second round.
I don’t want to fully discredit Chandler here. He’s a good athlete, a good wrestler, and a very dangerous fighter with power. His flaws are pretty extreme though and I can’t back him in this rematch.
One primary issue is that Oliveira has an extreme grappling advantage. Chandler could in theory take Oliveira down, but unless he lands enough ground-and-pound shots to knock Oliveira out, Oliveira will still survive.
Conversely, if Oliveira gets on top, he will have immediate submission potential and I think that outcome is somewhat likely.
Even in Chandler’s last fight against Poirier, Chandler had success early and landed some takedowns, where he could control Poirier on the mat. He got extremely tired by the third round and ended up getting choked out anyway.
On the feet, Chandler has a real chance, but again, only early. It’s really hard to give Chandler much hope past the first round and a half because he uses a lot of energy and cannot sustain it. The other issue is that even if he hurts Oliveira, he’ll need to chase him to the ground with follow-up shots where Oliveira can more easily survive, or even threaten Chandler.
This is possible though. Oliveira is a super legit striker, but he’s been knocked down so many times. After beating Chandler in 2021, Oliveira fought Poirier who knocked him down, then Gaethje who knocked him down, and then Makhachev who knocked him down. Oliveira actually came back to beat both Gaethje and Poirier though because they couldn’t complete the finish.
It still tells me Chandler has a path early. He’ll chase the KO and he might hurt Oliveira. It’s pretty simple.
If he can’t do that, Oliveira seems very likely to either hurt Chandler, or find a takedown and submission though. Chandler really has a problem defending himself and he got beaten up badly by Oliveira, and Gaethje. He was even losing early to Tony Ferguson before the second-round KO.
In the UFC thus far, Chandler is only defending strikes at 46% which just won’t cut it.
It’s unfair for me to portray extreme confidence here just given the high-variance nature, but Oliveira should beat Chandler. He’s so much better on the mat and based on how easily he took Chandler down last time, I think he probably can get the fight to the mat early once again.
If not, he still probably has the advantage standing and he very likely has the advantage in an extended fight as well. I won’t completely discount Chandler’s early KO path though.
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On DraftKings, this is certainly one of my favorite fights to target on the entire slate.
It’s actually booked for five rounds but I’d be shocked if it lasted that long. The fight is currently lined at -125 to go Under 1.5 rounds, and it’s lined at -800 to end inside the distance.
Still, it should be said that if this fight happened to go five rounds, the winner would accrue more points than the average fighter on the slate, and therefore gives both Oliveira and Chandler a strong floor and ceiling in a victory.
More realistically, I think Oliveira wins ITD within two rounds, or Chandler wins ITD within two rounds.
The price on Chandler is an easy one to target if you have any interest. He’s 7.2k and early KO based. In Chandler’s two wins in the UFC, he’s scored 107 and 103 DK points, which would be enough to compete for the optimal.
He already hurt Oliveira as well, in a high-variance fight, and he’s now +250 to win ITD. With any large portfolio, Chandler is a very easy fighter to target for upside.
I personally won’t have too much exposure because I hate his game and I’m picking him to lose, but that doesn’t mean I’ll avoid him completely. He’s simply too cheap for the upside he carries, and is a worthwhile secondary target in that sense.
I would also guess that Chandler will carry some leverage against Oliveira who should be one of the more popular fighters on this slate. It’s a more minor reason to target Chandler as he’ll carry ownership too, but still worth noting.
I like Chandler as a secondary target overall but would lean underweight if I had to choose for the matchup analysis.
Oliveira at 9k is the tricker fighter to analyze because he’s expensive, and priced near Jon Jones at 9.5k.
Although Oliveira is technically in a five-round fight, I don’t have the same excitement for that reason because I don’t think it’s likely the fight lasts long. In his last win against Chandler, Oliveira scored 109, which is strong, but that also came with two knockdowns.
Oliviera has other wins ITD that have scored 94, 69, 104, 104, 87, 97, 94 and 96. This is because he’s not scoring a ton of points per minute and is largely dependent on that finish.
So if for example, Chandler takes Oliveira down and has success in round one, and the fight lasts till round two or round three, Oliveira could still win ITD but fail to reach 100 points. It’s not even an unrealistic outcome here.
So my fear is that Oliveira gets smashed publicly because he’s -200 to win ITD, and priced well in a good matchup, but only scores in that 90-100 point range. It still could be enough to be optimal but with another five-round target priced nearby, it’s possible Oliveira gets outscored in this top range.
It doesn’t take much else from there to consider the outcome where Oliveira misses the optimal.
With that said, I don’t think Oliveira is a lock, and I think you could argue that coming in underweight is a fine strategy in large fields. Not targeting this fight is one interesting way to be very unique and you’d be hoping for Oliveira to score in the mid-90s in a win.
He’s obviously going to rate out very strongly though, and I will play him moderately. His floor in a win is very strong, and he could still surpass 100 points if he has an early finish. At 9k, in a win, Oliveira is very likely to be in contention for the optimal.
In smaller field contests, Oliveira is even more viable as you’re less likely to need that perfect optimal.
I really like Oliveira from a finishing perspective overall, and I don’t mind his price. He’s one of the stronger plays on this slate and ultimately moderate exposure feels like a great place to start.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Oliveira by RNC, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium)
Bo Nickal vs. Paul Craig
Fight Odds: Nickal -1241, Craig +745
Odds to Finish: -900
DraftKings Salaries: Nickal 9.8k, Craig 6.4k
Weight Class: 185
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
One of the best American collegiate wrestlers of his generation, Bo Nickal will be getting a small step up in competition this weekend when he takes on Paul Craig.
Nickal is now 3-0 in the UFC but he has fought poor competition in Jamie Pickett, Val Woodburn, and Cody Brundage. He did exactly what he needed to do in all of those fights though and finished all of them with relatively ease
Pretty much all you need to know about Nickal is that he was a dominant collegiate wrestler. He took second in the NCAA finals his freshman year and then won gold in his sophomore, junior, and senior years. He won the hodge trophy his Senior year which is essentially the equivalent of the Heisman trophy and given to the nation’s best collegiate wrestler. He finished his collegiate career with a ridiculous 120-3 record. Only a handful of wrestlers in the history of collegiate wrestling have a resume like that.
Nickal then attempted to make the Olympic team but was stuck in a bracket with guys like David Taylor who were simply better than him. So Nickal couldn’t make the Olympic team in 2020. Taylor ended up winning the Olympics so there is no shame in that loss.
After failing to qualify for the Olympics, Nickal then made the transition to MMA. He is 6-0 professionally with all six wins coming by finish and generally in the first round.
It is hard to know what Nickal actually is at this point. However, I actually really liked his performance against Cody Brundage. He grappled well into the second round and showed no signs of slowing down. He was also known to have good cardio in pure wrestling matches too. I personally think Nickal is going to eventually fight for a title one day, but he is still pretty untested and hasn’t been put through adversity.
Still though, how many guys will actually stop his wrestling game of Nickal? Probably not many so that alone may carry him to a title shot. I mean we just saw the long reigning champion Israel Adesanya get sloppily submitted by Dricus Du Plessis. Would any of us really be that surprised if Nickal could take down and submit Adesanya? I wouldn’t be.
There still are question marks on Nickal though. I don’t know what his striking or cardio will be like unless he is pushed. However, I am guessing he is pretty green in the striking department and still needs development. I also would guess his cardio is fine given he is a lifelong wrestler and always pushed a hard pace in that sport. His durability is also a question mark.
What I do know is Nickal can wrestle his ass off and is a better pure wrestler than anyone in this division except maybe Chimaev. Nickal is definitely capable of landing takedowns against anyone in this division. He also objectively looks skilled at jiu-jitsu as well and has been competing in grappling matches against good guys. So I think his BJJ game will be fine too.
He has actually rolled with some world class grapplers in BJJ competitions and was not submitted which is good. He was submitted by Gordon Ryan but Ryan is the best no gi grappler of all-time so there is no shame in that.
Nickal will be taking on Paul Craig. Paul Craig is one of the great representations of never knowing what is going to happen in this sport. This guy literally lost 14:58 of a fight to Magomed Ankalev and then won the fight with a last second random triangle choke. No joke.
Craig is best as a submission grappler and has shown time and time again that he can get random guard submissions. It is still not a path to victory that I like to count on or bet on. However, it is definitely a path to victory that I respect for Craig. He has just shown that he can do it consistently and even against good competition.
The issue with Craig is that he is not the best minute winner. He is almost always losing fights up until he obtains his submission. So it is just easy to imagine him losing fights and it’s fair to pick against him in general.
As a striker, Craig only lands 2.45 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.97 in return. He defends strikes at 44 percent. I just don’t think he is very skilled as a striker and doesn’t possess a ton of power. He also has been knocked out five times in the UFC. I don’t think his chin is awful. However, it is still definitely a concern and I imagine he will be knocked out a few more times before his career is over.
I do think Craig’s striking has improved a bit though compared to his early run in the UFC. He is willing to get a bit more aggressive and pressure or panic his opponents. I still don’t trust him to beat any skilled strikers on the feet though.
I actually do think Craig is an underrated wrestler offensively. He is known for getting submissions off his back and he is there often because he only defends takedowns at 37 percent. However, Craig actually lands 1.76 takedowns per 15 minutes and can surprise opponents with well timed takedowns. He actually took down Magomed Anklaev twice which goes to show that he is capable. Craig is capable of taking the back as well.
Like most Paul Craig fights though, I think he is submission or bust in this matchup. I will truly never count Craig out of a fight. He has beaten top five level fighters with random finishes. So theoretically he could win this fight and any fight really.
However, Craig defends takedowns at 37 percent and is facing the best wrestler that he has ever competed against by a country mile. Nickal should be able to land takedowns at will here. My guess is that Nickal’s positional base will be too physical and strong for Craig and Craig will eventually get overwhelmed on the mat and finished.
Obviously, Nickal needs to avoid getting guard submitted by Craig. It wouldn’t be the craziest thing in the world as Nickal is still inexperienced and Craig is tricky. However, seeing Nickal avoiding getting submitted against high level black belts in BJJ competitions makes me think Nickal will be mindful and stay safe here. So my guess is Nickal will avoid getting submitted and just overwhelm Craig with his wrestling.
I do think if Nickal tests his striking a bit, it would be interesting. We really don’t know what to expect from Nickal on the feet and Craig could maybe have success there. However, Nickal seems smart and I feel like if Craig had any striking success whatsoever, Nickal would quickly wrestle out of danger. So I expect Nickal to get the win this weekend and continue working his way up the middleweight division.
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On DraftKings, Nickal is the most expensive fighter on the board at 9.8k, and although he will rate out extremely well, his price will push him off of the priority list.
One major reason why is because there are two five-round options priced in the 9k range as well. It will be extremely difficult to play lots of Oliveira at 9k, and especially lots of Jon Jones at 9.5k, along with Nickal.
You can argue that Nickal is the best of the bunch, with a moneyline north of -1200 and an ITD line at -700, but there’s a decent chance you won’t be able to afford him unless you’re playing multiple cheap underdogs.
Also, Nickal hasn’t exactly shown the ceiling necessary for me to attack him at this price. In three wins in the UFC, Nickal has scored 109, 128 and 100. The 128 point score came in a first-minute win and he therefore got the extra 25 points for a quick win bonus.
If he gets that again this weekend, Nickal will be firmly in play. If not, there’s a reasonable chance he falls somewhere in the 100-115 point range, and he may not outscore other top-end options like the ones mentioned above.
I also think there’s a decent chance this fight does extend. While Craig sucks at wrestling, he’s a good submission grappler and I don’t think Nickal will immediately finish him on top. I actually think Nickal may want to test his striking a bit, as Craig was recently KOd too. Nickal could look for a knockout and then revert back to his wrestling whenever he needs to.
The fight is -170 to go Under 1.5 rounds so projecting an early finish is still fair, but both times Craig has been subbed in the UFC came in round three.
I’m simply worried that an extended fight would limit Nickal’s ceiling. His floor in a win given his wrestling path is still very strong, so targeting him when you do have the salary available is obviously very viable. I would be afraid to have no Nickal on this slate.
My guess though is that I won’t end up super heavy on exposure, and neither will the field. I actually like him more than I thought I would after researching the KO or bust fighters in Onama and Ruffy below him, so if I had to choose between that bunch, I’d still likely aim for the grappling and finishing upside of Nickal.
The field will likely prioritize Oliveira and probably Jones. Nickal may still outscore both but if there aren’t enough cheap fighters who win and hit a ceiling, it still may not matter at 9.8k.
Ultimately you can play as much Nickal as you like and I expect a great result from him, but I don’t think he’s a lock to hit a top-end ceiling and be optimal at 9.8k.
Craig at 6.4k is viable but I don’t want to play him.
He’s a huge dog and in an obviously poor matchup stylistically. Sure, he could randomly lock up a submission but I have enough faith that Nickal will stay safe when necessary.
Craig just isn’t an effective striker and he’s not likely to wrestle with success here either. He’s +825 to win ITD. I won’t play him with limited lineups but if you want to take a dart on him in large-fields for theoretical sub upside and leverage, that’s ok.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Nickal by RNC, RD2 (Confidence=Medium-High)
Viviane Araujo vs. Karine Silva
Fight Odds: Silva -288, Araujo +235
Odds to Finish: +180
DraftKings Salaries: Silva 9.2k, Araujo 7k
Weight Class: 115
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
Karine Silva is a thorn in my side. I feel like I haven’t picked a single fight of hers correctly yet. She just keeps winning. However, I still do not completely trust her, and I tend to think she will be exposed soon. Maybe it will come on Saturday against divisional veteran Viviane Araujo.
Silva booked her ticket to the UFC by winning on the Contender Series back in October of 2021. It was kind of a weird fight. Silva was outlanded in strikes 27-12 and then randomly locked in a guillotine to win the fight at the beginning of round two. Silva landed some power shots early, but she was clearly gassing and even got taken down and held down for a bit. I legit think she would have lost that fight had it not been for the random guillotine. Silva then submitted Botelho, Souza, and Moroz in round one of each matchup.
Early finishes seem to be a constant theme for Silva. She is 18-4 and all of her wins except one have come by finish in round 1 or 2. She has been finished a few times herself in round 1 and lost by decision to UFC fighter Dione Barbosa on the regionals.
Silva generally looks like an early finish or bust fighter to me. However, she did at least win a decision in her last matchup against Ariane Lipski. Silva generally lost the striking exchanges and avoided them altogether. However, she landed five takedowns and controlled Lipski for over seven minutes. Lipski presents no threat off her back though and doesn’t resist there at all to tire opponents out.
So although it was good to see Silva display another path to victory with takedowns and control over the duration against Lipski, I want to see her do it again against someone who can resist a little more.
Silva is certainly dangerous early though. She is a classic Brazilian dual threat finisher as she has some power on the feet and submissions on the mat.
As a striker, Silva seems too low volume to me but I do think she is capable of hurting girls or competing in the first round or so. I just don’t trust stand up knockouts in WMMA as a consistent win method, especially at the UFC level. I question Silva’s ability to land volume over the duration.
As a grappler, that is where Silva is best. I do think she is dangerous with her submissions early in fights.
The issue is that Silva’s wrestling doesn’t seem the best and so many of her submissions are non-process and non-predictive as they generally come by guillotine, armbar, knee bar, etc. In other words, her submissions come when she doesn’t have top position which are much harder submissions to predict and obtain when fighters get steps up in competition. In contrast, Gillian Robertson gets process submissions from top position like rear naked chokes and arm triangles. Those are easier to predict and to obtain at this level.
I mean look, Silva can still submit girls in the UFC. I also think she can land takedowns and control average to below-average grapplers at this level. So she is clearly UFC level and can win fights here.
I still just have questions with Silva’s game though. I am pretty certain that her striking is not great. She has also been taken and held down for entire rounds before and has yet to defend a takedown in the UFC, although she has only faced two takedown attempts. Furthermore, her cardio may be an issue too.
I really just want to see Silva tested more, and I think UFC veteran Viviane Araujo is a great test to see where Silva is at.
Araujo is a bit of a freestyle fighter. She can strike a bit. However, she lands 4.11 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.96 which isn’t good. She has never really outlanded an actual good striker on the feet. The only people she has outlanded are Roxanne, De La Rosa, and Bernardo which I thought was kind of crazy when I was researching this fight.
Araujo’s competition has generally been stellar though and her losses have come to Natalia Silva, Amanda Ribas, Alexa Grasso, Kaitlyn Chookagian, and Jessica Eye. So she isn’t conceding soft losses.
I still don’t think Araujo is an awful striker. She is a good athlete and can spring in and out of range, and can land decently hard. However, she just isn’t very technical and she tends to tire out down the stretch.
Araujo can grapple a bit. She lands 1.76 takedowns per 15 minutes. Her takedowns aren’t great, but she is physical and can bully her opponents to the mat and get top position and hold it. She is also pretty strong in the clinch and gutted out a round vs Natalia Silva there which was impressive.
Araujo has solid tdd at 77 percent. However, I don’t like Araujo’s get up game when she is actually grounded. We have seen her held down for pretty long stretches like in the Lipski fight. Araujo is a skilled grappler though, is a black belt and has never been submitted in her career. I don’t think she is offensively a very dangerous submission grappler though.
As far as this matchup goes, I really think this line is wide and I nearly picked Araujo to win.
On the feet, I honestly may favor Araujo. Not by a lot or anything, but I think Araujo is just so much more experienced on the feet and Silva has never really accomplished anything standing before. I could see it being a bit sloppy though and I don’t have a ton of faith in either girl as a striker.
I really think Araujo can land takedowns here too though. Silva doesn’t look like someone who can defend takedowns. Silva also plays guard. Araujo also has never been submitted and is a BJJ black belt, so I think it is very possible that Araujo lands some takedowns, gets some control, and has success in this fight.
The issue is that I do think Silva is a more dangerous submission grappler. I am leaning towards Silva not submitting Araujo. However, Silva seems to have magical powers and a random bottom submission for Silva wouldn’t surprise me that much, and I really doubt Araujo can submit Silva. So the submission upside looks to be in Silva’s favor.
Furthermore, Araujo’s get up game is not super strong. I think Silva could probably hold some stretches of position if she gets this fight to the mat. The issue is I really don’t think Silva’s takedowns are that great, and Araujo is generally not easy to take down. I know Silva landed five takedowns against Lipski. However, I trust Araujo as a defensive grappler way more than Lipski.
This is a sloppy one guys. A guard submission is in play for Silva. Both girls could probably get controlled, both girls have sloppy striking, and both girls could potentially gas. I don’t think that is a recipe for a -250 line for Silva by any means. I still picked Silva though because I do think she is more likely to win by finish. I think both girls have paths to win rounds though so this is dog or pass and has mess written all over it.
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On DraftKings, I likely won’t have much exposure to this matchup though it’s not one to write off either.
Silva is priced up to 9.2k and that’s far too expensive for me to prioritize. Especially considering she’s priced between multiple five-round options, plus we have Onama and Nickal up top, we’ll likely see some smash scores in this range.
Silva could get there, but it would have to come with an early finish. She’s already won in round one in the UFC three times and put up scores of 123, 104 and 99. This just does not feel like a great matchup for her to achieve that outcome.
Silva is +200 to win ITD which is still decent, and you could target her, especially if she projects to be low owned. That is my expectation based on the names in this range. In that sense, Silva has some viability.
There are just other differentiators I would rather target. Yes, in theory, Silva has some early finishing upside. I’m still not certain she can reach a top-end ceiling and I will likely be very light on exposure to her overall.
Araujo at 7k is one cheap option I will consider.
There are other cheap options to consider too, so I don’t think Araujo is a stand out by any means. At best, Araujo could win a sloppy fight with some wrestling mixed in, which is not the best sales pitch. And she could just suck and lose.
Still, Silva has some flaws, and Araujo is a good grappler with experience. I think a competitive decision is very much in play.
At 7k, Araujo is on my radar as a punt. I’m not in love with Craig or Romero at the bottom and who knows what to expect from Stipe. Chandler is ultra boom or bust. Araujo has a better floor than most and some real win equity. She is only +825 to win ITD though.
This isn’t a spot to get carried away but it’s quite possible Araujo has the best win equity from the bottom group, and there’s some viability for that in all formats. I’d probably feel a little better about her in smaller fields and/or cash games where the optimal is less necessary, but overall, I think Araujo is a viable secondary target who I would include in my portfolio.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Silva by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Mauricio Ruffy vs. James Llontop
Fight Odds: Ruffy -902, Llontop +590
Odds to Finish: -205
DraftKings Salaries: Ruffy 9.6k, Llontop 6.6k
Weight Class: 155
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Mauricio Ruffy’s a Contender Series alum from the 2023 season who made good on his UFC debut back in May – he’s 10-1 as a pro. James Llontop’s a fellow Contender Series alum but has had a rocky start to his UFC run, dropping his first two fights. He’ll be coming in on roughly two weeks’ notice to replace the injured Charlie Campbell – he’s 14-4 as a pro.
The striking component:
Ruffy comes from a striking background and in MMA, he fights in a more hybrid kickboxing/karate esque type of style.
He likes to operate in the mid-range or from the outside primarily where he’ll fight with his hands down and look to be a sniper. As a result, his volume has been on the lower end where it’s a lot of singular strikes – low kicks, spinning back kick, jab, step back right hand, etc.
To his credit, he’s had success in that style and has the nickname of “One Shot” as a guy with all 10 of his pro wins coming via KO.
He’s accurate and his strikes definitely take an impact but he’s not really “flatlining” guys like his nickname would suggest – he’s also by and large fought a lower brand of competition.
But in his hands down based style, it got him caught in his only pro loss to Sousa back in 2019 where he got cocky and paid for it – he also hurt Sousa bad early in that fight though.
However, he got dropped in one of his following fights as well despite recovering quickly.
His Contender Series performance was kind of meh. It was a low volume fight where both guys by and large just traded kicks with not many meaningful moments. But the calf kick from Ruffy paid dividends down to the stretch which set up his boxing more to eventually find the finish with GNP – it was a bit weird though that his opponent Magomedaliev kind of gassed out halfway through the fight in what was fought at a really slow pace.
Not a bad win on paper for Ruffy but Magomedaliev is at the bottom of the “Dagestani contingent” and that was in totality just an underwhelming performance from him as someone who’s watched him fight in the past.
In his debut against Mullarkey, the early portions of the first round were competitive but Ruffy was able to have success with the jab and eventually hurt the chinny Mullarkey putting him away.
Overall, he’s a technical guy who places his shots well and has power but has his own defensive issues at times, and doesn’t project to be a great minute winner at the UFC level given his style – he’s the type that’s going to be reliant on KO’s or edging close decisions in all likelihood.
Llontop is a striker by base that works in a mid-range kickboxing-based style.
He can fight out of both stances but primarily fights orthodox where he’s got some decent mid-range weapons with his boxing in addition to low leg kicks and lead body kicks.
He’s also fought an above-average to higher work rate over the course of his career.
He’s not a conventional huge hitter but definitely packs a punch with seven of 14 pro wins coming via KO/TKO – he falls more into the attritional striker category as he can break guys down over the course of his fights to then find his openings for the finish – credence to five of those seven stoppage wins coming past round one.
Defensively, he hasn’t been pushed much in the aggregate as he’s largely been in the driver’s seat controlling exchanges, but has shown pocket awareness to slide just out of range in many instances.
He’ll also utilize a healthy amount of clinching to break pressure so he’s not a guy that’s traditionally eating extended combinations.
He has worn shots well to date having never been KO’d in his pro career.
I thought he made a good account of himself in his last outing against Borshchev despite being on the losing end of a decision.
Borshchev is a good kickboxer and Llontop went strike for strike with him only getting out landed by one distance strike in a higher volume fight – 92 to 91 in favor Borshchev.
Overall, Llontop isn’t the fastest guy in the world and has some defensive liabilities but he’s a respectable striker.
How it plays out: The striking’s more interesting to me here than it is for probably most people. Ruffy will have a decided speed, accuracy, technical and power edge in the fight but as noted, I don’t think Llontop is some bum on the feet as per his performance against Borshchev. Given Ruffy’s style, I do think it’s going to be harder for Llontop to get off in this fight than he has in past fights. But he’s shown he can fight at higher rates and has been durable, so I don’t think this is some cakewalk for Ruffy. If Ruffy doesn’t KO Llontop, I’d anticipate the striking to be competitive exchange to exchange.
The wrestling/grappling component:
There’s very little to say here with Ruffy as I think I’ve only seen him attempt one TD regionally in which he picked up some bum and slammed him but let him back up.
As noted, he finished via GNP on DWCS, but Magomedaliev just keeled over from exhaustion and a failed TDA to which Ruffy mounted him with ease and pounded him out – but it wasn’t any real meaningful offensive sequence for Ruffy to take much from.
He tried an unorthodox scissor TD against Mullarkey but was unsuccessful.
Defensively, he’s been good though as the majority of his opponents have shot on him, but he’s shown a good ability to dig underhooks, shuck down single legs and sprawl.
Once again, he hasn’t really fought any good wrestlers though – even Magomedaliev is more of a striker than wrestler to where he only shot three times and when he was gassed out in the back half of the fight, so it didn’t tell much.
I’m unsure of Ruffy’s BJJ credentials and have never seen him on the bottom flattened, so that part of his game is a question mark at this point. He does train with the Fighting Nerds in Caio Borralho though, so he does have a good crop of ground guys to work with.
Overall, until we get a sample, the ground game of Ruffy is by and large a question mark.
Llontop is a BJJ purple belt but only reps one pro win via submission. But we have seen some floor time in his fights.
He’s not a great entry wrestler as a lot of his TDs seem pretty physical based and don’t bring the highest level of technique or he’s getting on top from slips, scrambles or stuffs.
But he’s shown some good things from top positions in a handful of fights racking up some minutes and landing GNP – was how he finished his fight against Zenidim a few fights back and beat Lewis up on the ground on DWCS.
Defensively, he’s been taken down in multiple fights where he’s shown consistent tendencies to give his back, but most opponents haven’t been able to capitalize and he’s shown good scrambling abilities.
We saw this on DWCS against Lewis where Lewis went 2/7 on TDs but only got one minute of control vs Llontop who racked up nearly seven minutes without landing a conventional TD.
Despite working up off the initial attempts in his debut against Padilla, Padilla was able to get to his back transitionally on the 3rd attempt and lock in an RNC.
But he’s shown the proper things in terms of defending guard subs in multiple fights to his credit.
Overall, Llontop appears to be a semi capable ground fighter despite it not being his base but also a product of his success has come against more gassed out opponents where he’s been able to do better work on top.
How it plays out: I don’t have a great gauge on the ground here. Llontop profiles as the more proactive wrestler although he’s still not a volume wrestler and not a very good one. So, you pair that with Ruffy’s TDD, I think it’ll be difficult for Llontop to get him down. Additionally, Llontop didn’t even shoot a TD against Borshchev in his last fight which showed rather poor fight IQ considering all the struggles Borshchev has had on the mat. I just haven’t seen enough from Ruffy to assess what his real offensive upside would be – Llontop has been subbed twice now though so maybe Ruffy flips the script and does look to shoot some TDs here.
Given what I ran through in the striking, I’m not counting out Llontop like a lot of people are this week. Ruffy most likely finds the chin at some point but if he doesn’t and this fight hits the scorecards, Llontop could pull the big upset just by virtue of being busier. Lastly, the fights only -200 to end inside the distance (if you remove the vig) which correlates to 67% implied. So, there’s still a 33% chance it doesn’t, which isn’t an inconsequential percentage.
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On DraftKings, I have to be honest, I am pretty stunned by this betting line and I’m not completely sure what to make of it. Ruffy is pushing -900 and I’m not even sure I favor him outright.
I do understand that he’s the more dangerous finisher of the two, and perhaps there’s a ground advantage he carries which we don’t know about currently, but otherwise, I don’t see why he’d be worthy of a price tag this high.
Ruffy, in his DWCS fight prior to his UFC debut, was outstruck at distance 38-25 over the first two rounds. He’s never won a decision. Between he and Llontop, Ruffy is the only man who’s ever been knocked out as well.
Plus, Llontop just went toe to toe with Borshchev who is a career kickboxer, and Llontop basically doubled the striking output of the best we’ve seen from Ruffy.
I’m not sure exactly how this fight will look, maybe Ruffy’s power is super legit and he can find the chin early. I’d anticipate it being more of a tepid, back-and-forth affair where Llontop is busier. I will probably put a small bet on Llontop +600 by default.
From a fantasy standpoint, Ruffy will be very boom or bust at 9.6k. He doesn’t project to have any wrestling equity, but even if he does wrestle, I’d still assume he needs a quick finish to beat out Nickal, Jones, etc. in this range.
I don’t have a problem with playing Ruffy on paper, given his massive betting line and -185 ITD line, but there’s just no way I can prioritize him based on matchup analysis. Even if he does win by quick KO, and score 110 like he did in his debut, I don’t think that’s a guarantee at 9.6k on this slate.
Again, I wouldn’t say it’s wrong to play Ruffy. Perhaps I’m just missing something. He still has early KO upside and has only ever won by KO. He probably won’t be super highly owned due to the strength of this range. He’s way too boom or bust for my liking and I’ll lean toward having little exposure personally.
Llontop at 6.6k is viable but it’s a very tricky spot.
Even if he is a true value compared to the betting line, he could still lose. And even if he wins, it could be a slower paced kickboxing affair in which he puts up 60-70 DK points. He would have only scored 68 in a win against Borshchev.
So I don’t feel like I can truly recommend much exposure here or be too excited from a fantasy perspective. It would be ok not to play him at all, or play him only as a sprinkle.
Ruffy has been hurt and KOd before though, and obviously, if Llontop is the only winner below the upper 7ks, for example, he’d be in play for the optimal. For those reasons, I’ll have some shares and I’ll probably be overweight to the field.
I’m more shocked by the betting line than I am certain Llontop is an incredible fantasy target. It should be a fun fight for as long as it lasts though.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Llontop by Decision (Confidence=Low)
UNDERCARD
Jonathan Martinez vs. Marcus McGhee
Fight Odds: McGhee -152, Martinez +132
Odds to Finish: -110
DraftKings Salaries: McGhee 8.4k, Martinez 7.8k
Weight Class: 135
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
I am excited to see Marcus McGhee get a step up in competition this weekend against Jonathan Martinez.
I have a soft spot for Marcus McGhee. I was impressed by his regional tape before his UFC debut against Journey Newson. I picked him to win as an underdog and he absolutely dominated Newson. He easily won the striking exchanges and then submitted Newson in round two.
McGhee then followed up that win by knocking out JP Buys in round one. Then in McGhee’s last fight, he beat up and knocked out Gaston Bolanos in round two. That was an impressive performance to me. McGhee showed he can grapple a bit, but he actually beat up Bolanos (who has a striking background) at range quite easily. McGhee outlanded Bolano 52-28 at distance before knocking him out.
McGhee is super physical and is kind of a specimen. He is just bricked up and strong for this weight class. He is 9-1 professionally with all nine wins coming by finish.
Standing out of the southpaw stance, this guy literally walks forward with no backstep and throws power strikes. He has some really damaging head strikes / punches and some devastating leg kicks. Most of his wins have come early, but I have even seen him have fights that extended a couple of rounds or into the third. He didn’t slow down in either fight. He didn’t slow down against Bolanos either and as far as I can tell, and I think he can keep a pace in the latter halves of fights.
This guy just hits really hard. Even his non KO strikes that land are very impactful. I tend to think he can give a lot of guys issues on the feet. He has good hands in the pocket, and he kept countering Bolanos with hooks in the inside. I really like his power striking overall. He is aggressive and lands really hard.
Who knows what McGhee will look like when people actually throw back and have offensive skills themselves. However, I do tend to think he is going to be tough to deal with.
McGhee has lost one fight, which came via RNC against a BJJ black belt. I actually think McGhee’s takedown defense is pretty competent. Even in that submission loss, he was working up to his feet. He just gave up his back. I think back taking body triangle guys will be his kryptonite. However, I do think he can generally defend takedowns against average grapplers.
McGhee doesn’t really look to wrestle offensively much but he did submit Newson and did have a takedown on Bolanos. I think he can outmuscle some lower level grapplers but I generally think power striking will be his path to victory as he gets steps up in competition.
McGhee will be taking on Jonathan Martinez. Martinez is coming off a tough loss to Jose Aldo where he struggled with the power and physicality of Aldo. He got hurt a couple times in that fight. Before that fight, Martinez had been on a roll and had won six straight fights.
Martinez is a decent fighter and is generally a straight kickboxer who likes to fight with his kicks at kicking range. Martinez lands 4.54 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.87 in return. He defends strikes at 57 percent. He is about an average to above-average striker for this division with moderate power, having landed nine knockdowns in 14 UFC fights. Multiple have come via leg kicks though.
Martinez thrives with his kicks and thrives when he can go forward, or is not being pressured backward. He is really good with his calf kicks and he can really take his opponents’ legs out with them. He has been hurt a few times though. He was knocked down twice by Soukhamthath and knocked out cold by Davey Grant. He was also knocked down by Alejandro Perez and hurt badly by Aldo. However, I generally think his durability is okay and that his chin isn’t a big liability or anything. It isn’t bullet proof though.
Martinez doesn’t grapple much offensively and only lands 0.41 takedowns per 15 minutes. So he is pretty much limited to winning by striking based decision or by knockout. He is a competent grappler though and defends takedowns well. He defends takedowns at 68 percent. He won a fight against Zviad Lazishvilli where he completely shut down Zviad’s grappling game.
As far as this matchup goes, one concern I do have is that Martinez could land leg kicks here. McGhee did concede some leg kicks against Bolanos. One of the kicks visibly had an impact on McGhee. I tend to trust McGhee’s head strike defense but his leg kick defense does seem like a potential weakness which could be critical in this matchup. Honestly, if McGhee can just shut down the calf kick game of Martinez, he should win this fight by landing the more damaging head strikes.
I do think some kicks could land for Martinez though. However, I do like that McGhee is very aggressive, pressures. and generally pushes his opponents backwards. Generally, kickers struggle to land impactful kicks when going backwards, and pressure and physicality is something that we have seen bother Martinez before. I think that will probably be enough for McGhee to negate the kicks of Martinez. McGhee just needs to ensure that he isn’t standing at range too often because if he is, he could get crippled by the nasty kicks of Martinez.
In punching range though, I just think McGhee is so much more explosive and physical than Martinez. I think McGhee has better and quicker hooks in the pocket, and I think he is so much more likely to hurt Martinez to the head than vice versa. I doubt either guy will get grappling going because neither guy is a great offensive wrestler but both are good defensively.
Overall though, I just think I have to go with McGhee here because of power and physicality. We have seen Martinez hurt a lot and this is arguably one of the heavier hitters that he has faced.
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On DraftKings, this is probably a matchup I will avoid for the most part but it’s a fine secondary complement for upside.
McGhee would be the preferred target at 8.4k, as I think his chances of winning ITD are better. He’s shown power components, and Martinez has been knocked down a handful of times. McGhee is +186 to win ITD here which is solid.
McGhee probably has the grappling advantage as well. I doubt he wrestles much but 1-2 takedowns is possible.
He’ll be very boom or bust though. I don’t think McGhee will land tons of strikes and he could even be losing the minutes there. He very likely needs that KO to be optimal and while it’s possible, it’s not the most likely outcome in my mind.
So my main concern is that McGhee wins an extended fight and does not reach the optimal. I won’t be too heavy on him personally, but projecting KOs are always difficult. He’s viable as a secondary target for upside and coming in near the field is what I would likely aim to do with a medium-sized portfolio.
Martinez at 7.8k has a worse chance to win ITD at +475, and he has almost no grappling equity.
Because of those two things, Martinez could be an outright fade. The most likely outcome for him in a win is a competitive, mid-paced striking decision and he may not reach 80 points there.
In his recent decision wins, Martinez has only put up 65, 76 and 60. Sure, if no dogs win on this slate then maybe at 7.8k, Martinez could squeak through. I’d rather chase upside though.
The only counter point to make is that he lands leg kicks. Those are some of my favorite tools in MMA right now, and they can dramatically alter fights. They can end fights and completely break fighters.
So it’s not impossible that Martinez lands some heavy leg kicks, and McGhee cannot stand up by round two, and then Martinez finds a TKO by default. Similar to what we saw against Yanez where Martinez scored 105.
If you want to play a dose of Martinez for that reason alone, it’s fine. He shouldn’t be too popular and may actually fall into the contrarian category as he won’t project well. I don’t love relying on narratives though, and ultimately, leg kicks can be avoided or checked.
He’s simply a low floor and low ceiling play outside of a random KO or leg kick KO. I’d lean against playing him with a small portfolio but with a medium or large sized one, he’s fine as a sprinkle.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: McGhee by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Chris Weidman vs. Eryk Anders
Fight Odds: Anders -118, Weidman +103
Odds to Finish: +150
DraftKings Salaries: Anders 8.5k, Weidman 7.7k
Weight Class: 185
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
Future Hall-of-Famer will step into the Octagon again on Saturday against Eryk Anders.
It’s been a few years since we saw Chris Weidman suffer a devastating leg injury against Uriah Hall. Weidman threw a hard leg kick on the first strike of the fight, Hall checked it, and Weidman’s leg snapped in half. It was awful to see that happen to Weidman.
Since that fight, Weidman has made a comeback and has had two fights. He lost a sloppy decision to Brad Tavares where he was outstruck and failed to land takedowns on Tavares. He then won a controversial fight against Bruno Silva where he committed a ton of fouls. Weidman still probably would have won that fight though and actually had a promising performance. He outstruck Silva 75-30 in significant strikes, hurt him, and had mild wrestling success.
It is still clear Weidman is past his prime, but he still showed against Silva that he has some life. Weidman is a good wrestler historically. He lands 3.44 takedowns per 15 minutes, and is a skilled wrestler and submission grappler in general. He can chain takedowns together, and I do respect his grappling in general. He also has a decent submission grappling game and has won by guillotine, D’Arce, and arm triangle in the UFC.
Weidman isn’t the best striker. He lands 3.18 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.22 in return. He wasn’t awful as a striker in his prime. However, he had kind of looked like a liability on the feet later in his career and was knocked out by Jacare and Reyes. I do think he has some sneaky boxing at times though. He can pressure people in boxing range and have success which he showed against Silva. It is not the prettiest thing in the world but it can be effective.
Look, Weidman was a capable and skilled grappler in his prime. He is definitely not what he was though. It looks like he can still grapple and strike to a degree. He also has decent cardio. So my guess is for now, he can probably just have competitive fights against low to mid tier competition.
Weidman will be taking on Eryk Anders. Anders is kind of a freestyle fighter who will strike a bit and occasionally look to land takedowns. Anders doesn’t always land a ton of offense which is why I am not high on him in general, but he is decent and is a physically strong dude.
Anders lands 3.41 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.17 in return. He defends strikes at 50 percent. Those are pretty bad metrics and I don’t consider Anders a very good striker. He is basically limited to his left hand. He is a tough and physical guy though so he can stay competitive in fights. He also has some power in his left hand and can hurt opponents. So he can kind of keep fights competitive on the feet and has a power threat.
However, he isn’t a guy who is going to win clean rounds either. He has also been knocked down in his last two fights against somewhat poor competition, so his chin is a bit of a concern.
Anders lands 1.79 takedowns per 15 minutes and attempts about 6 takedowns per fight. I don’t consider him to be a great offensive wrestler but he is capable. I actually think he has a decent top game as he can use his physicality to stifle submissions and land ground and pound.
Anders is actually a decent defensive wrestler. He defends takedowns at a solid 79 percent and is generally hard to hold down on the mat.
As far as this matchup goes, I am actually pretty torn here. On the feet, it may come as a surprise but I may like Weidman more as a round winner. Anders is just hittable and I feel like Weidman has recently looked like the more aggressive striker. This is still sloppy on the feet though, and baked with a ton of variance. Either one of these guys could probably knock the other out at any point. Both have a little bit of power and both of their chins look sketchy.
As a wrestler, I favor Weidman slightly as well. I don’t think Weidman will easily take or hold Anders down. However, if he landed a takedown or two with some control, I wouldn’t be surprised. Anders could probably land takedowns as well but I doubt he can hold Weidman down or do much.
I feel like I am leaning Weidman slightly because I feel like he is a little more likely to be aggressive in general. I think he is more likely to attempt strikes and land takedowns. I feel like for Anders to win clean, he will probably have to knock Weidman out or consistently hurt him. That very well may happen. Weidman is surely an old fighter with a ton of wear and tear.
However, if that power doesn’t show up for Anders, where will Anders’ offense come from to win a clean decision? Is he going to land a ton of strikes or have a ton of wrestling success? Probably not. This is also in Weidman’s hometown and the crowd will be going crazy for him.
So I am going to pick Weidman here. I think he can generally stay competitive in all areas and the hometown crown could really help him on the cards. This is a sloppy one though, and it is tough to trust Weidman at this point of his career or to trust Anders ever.
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On DraftKings, this isn’t a super fun matchup to target but both sides have viability for different purposes.
I expect the value of Weidman to carry him to a higher ownership at 7.7k, as he’s approaching a pick’em.
The public is going to want to spend up this week, and they’ll need salary savings. Targeting an easy value like Weidman is one place to do so. In that sense, Weidman is a solid secondary target as a fighter who could win.
I don’t love the ceiling for Weidman, but it’s not non-existent either. Anders was knocked down by Jamie Pickett in his last fight which is about as bad as it gets, and he’s been very inconsistent over the years. Weidman also is the better submission grappler with some wrestling equity.
Weidman is only +365 to win ITD, which isn’t great, but I still consider him a reasonable secondary target. However, there are a handful of fighters in this range with more clear paths to a ceiling, so I don’t expect to target Weidman more aggressively than the field.
Anders should be the leverage side at 8.5k, and my guess is that he comes in mostly unowned.
He did just score 94 points in his last decision win, but that came with five takedowns, and I highly doubt he can repeat that kind of performance here. It’s possible he could mix in a couple of takedowns but I don’t think he can get much work done with them.
The real upside in my mind is if Anders can knock Weidman out. Anders is actually +275 to win ITD which isn’t terrible, and shows some upside. Weidman has been hurt a bunch in his career and could easily retire after Saturday. It’s not the worst spot to invest in a potential KO.
Anders just isn’t a great fighter. He’s not consistent. He’s not extremely dangerous anywhere. I don’t mind a sprinkle of Anders for the theoretical upside, especially as he’ll project to be low owned and leverage. But this isn’t a spot I love either and I don’t expect to be on him more than the field.
Overall, I just don’t have a great feeling about the matchup. It’s -180 to go the distance, and I’m not excited to be caught up in any potential chalk on the Weidman side. I do prefer him for the savings, but this is a low-end matchup for fantasy purposes, outside of random variance leading to a KO.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Weidman by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Jim Miller vs. Damon Jackson
Fight Odds: Jackson -169, Miller +145
Odds to Finish: -115
DraftKings Salaries: Jackson 8.6k, Miller 7.6k
Weight Class: 155
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Jim Miller’s the longest tenured fighter on the roster who will be rounding out his 16th year with the UFC at 41 years old – he’s 26-17 in the UFC and 37-18 as a pro. Damon Jackson had an original stint in the UFC between 2014-2016 but was bounced out the promotion.He returned in 2020 where he’s since gone 6-4. He’s 23-7-1 as a pro and will be moving back up to lightweight for the first time since 2018.
The striking component:
Miller’s a gritty, tough southpaw who has some “junkyard dog” in him but his striking hasn’t traditionally been his best attribute, despite his recent standing successes.
We’ve seen him work at higher rates in recent years but he’s been lower volume throughout the bulk of his career, landing only 3.2 SLpM at 45%.
His power has translated better in his older age ironically as Miller wasn’t ever really known as much of a power guy, but does have three KOs in his last five wins. Granted those came against Gonzalez, Motta and Butler who aren’t really UFC level fighters, but he also hurt Bobby Green in his last outing.
He’ll often be more aggressive earlier on in fights, but can often succumb to pressure and will accept the back foot.
In saying that though, he’s only been KO’d twice through a lengthy career so in an extended fight, you have to assume Miller will be in there for a full 15 minutes. Miller also proved that in his outing against Hernandez who’s one of the bigger hitters he’s fought in recent years, and against Green last time out where he was hurt badly late.
Defensively, he eats 4.3 SApM at 53%. But going back to the extended striking fights again, he’s often getting outpaced by a decent margin. In general, the optics for Miller standing tend not to be very good as he can get backed up and busted up.
Overall, he’s a guy who can hold his own on the feet as a decent striker with a good low kick, left hand and right cross – I think his grit is more of his core competency though, despite improving technically over the years.
Jackson is a wrestler/grappler by base that brings a rickety striking style in his movement patterns and how he throws strikes.
Despite that awkwardness, he’s serviceable offensively in throwing offbeat shots, front kicks and check knees. The issue is, he’s rather wooden/slow. He’s also been KOd several times, including multiple times in the UFC.
It’s fair to say the stand-up isn’t his bread and butter but there does need to be some context there, as he’s competed against decent competition and had success at times.
For example, Khaybulaev KOd him, but he’s a savage who won the PFL Championship a few years back – Topuria hits like a truck and is now the sitting champion – Ige’s a sound striker as well with power – and Quarantillo breaks down the large majority of opponents he fights with an insane work rate. Mariscal not finishing the last fight was ridiculous.
So Jackson has managed to survive surprisingly in a handful of spots, but is still a rather chinny fighter.
Overall, opponents can’t take Jackson lightly on the feet because his rickety style can be effective to a degree but he’s going to continue to struggle with guys who also have pace and power.
How it plays out: Jackson has the volume and clunky style to be competitive with Miller on the feet, but I’d still ultimately favor Miller. He’s just the cleaner overall striker, has more KO power and is more durable. Additionally, Jackson’s only faced one southpaw in the UFC which was Dan Argueta who did have success against him in the 3rd round of that fight.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Miller’s a former collegiate wrestler and BJJ black belt. He lands 1.2 TDs per 15 minutes and gets them at 44%.
Conversely, he only stuffs TDs at 47% — that’s partially attributed to him accepting TDs at times, but he can be straight up out-wrestled as well. We saw this in his losses to Solecki, Pichel and Holtzman.
Miller’s recent years have been interesting as six of his last nine wins have come via submission. He’s a very technically sound guy and one that you can’t make small mistakes against, or he will make you pay.
As a result, he’s been very opportunistic as the subs against Guida, Roberts and Cerrone were all off mistakes.
Even in his fight against Hernandez, he got to his back off a slip late in the fight and had a moderately viable attempt to finish late there. He scored a late neck crank in his most recent win over Benitez as well.
Overall, you can’t anticipate Miller to wrestle in volume at this point of his career, but opponents have to mind their Ps and Qs with him in every position. He can be out-wrestled though.
Jackson’s a former NAIA All-American wrestler and BJJ black belt.
He has the nickname of “The Leech” and for good reason as once he gets ahold of guys, it can be difficult for them to keep him off. He’s got good double/single legs, body lock TDs and cage transitions to get fights down/take backs.
He’s finished 15 of his 23 pro wins via submission and had fought pretty good regional level competition pre-UFC. He’s an OG of LFA and fought in the earlier days of Bellator.
He was outwrestled by Bektic, but Bektic is one of the better wrestlers we’d seen in the 145 lb. division historically (the metrics back that up as well).
However, he was able to sweep and really hurt Bektic at the end of that 2nd round and submitted him in 3rd, despite losing the large majority of minutes in that fight (also swept him again) – only guy to ever submit Bektic in 17 pro fights.
Against Rosa, he just big brothered the guy landing six TDs and getting over 10 minutes of control time – he attempted multiple submissions as well, but Rosa is incredibly difficult to submit.
He also grinded on Kirk when he decided to pursue and caught an arm triangle – controlled Argueta for 2/3 of the fight but Jackson did get reversed at the ends of both the 1st and 2nd rounds. He won in the wrestling against Quarantillo despite going only 3/13 on TDs, and he still racked up six minutes of control.
He went 3/7 on Hernandez but got 6+ minutes of control where TDs and early cage grind was a contributing factor in him winning that fight – he did concede some later minutes after the latter knockdown though. Most recently, he had a grueling battle with Mariscal but was ultimately out muscled in the matchup, and struggled with the judo and relentless pace of Mariscal.
I thought it was a stupid game plan that he only shot once against Ige though and got taken down himself once, but popped right up. Regionally, he’d been able to get guys down and get them out ITD at a pretty high clip.
Overall, he’s got a good wrestling base to complement his BJJ game and is one of those guys that you can’t make a ton of mistakes against, or he will finish you – similar to a GM3 to a degree (not as dangerous) but with better wrestling/positional control. He’s not immune to being out grappled himself though, having only stuffed at 37% in the UFC.
How it plays out: Both guys come from similar backgrounds but despite the last showing from Jackson, I’d favor him on the ground. I trust him to push TDs far more than Miller and he’s also better in the scrambles. Miller’s just been content to play guard over the years in numerous spots. Miller’s obviously fought a better strength of schedule in totality but Jackson’s out controlling his opponents at a 2:1 ratio where Miller’s being controlled at 2:1 ratio. The primary concern I would have for Jackson is if he’s tired and puts himself into a guillotine, but both guys have been difficult to submit over the years. I like Jackson on the floor for top time upside.
Fun booking. You have a guy in Miller who’s on the tail end of his run but still keeps chugging along. You then have Jackson who’s in a bit of a rough patch but is now going up in weight. I think the move up for Jackson could be a pro or con. The pro is that the guy was cutting 30 lbs. to make 145 so his cuts were brutal. He said he passed out cutting for the Hernandez fight and took the Mariscal fight on less than three weeks’ notice, so he had an even tougher cut to make it for that fight – I think that had an impact on Jackson overall performance. The con is that Jackson’s always had a dodgy chin at 145 so him now going up in weight against larger hitters could be worse – maybe his chin is better at 155 though not having to cut as much.
Matchup wise, it’s a volatile fight for all the reasons mentioned. I could reasonably see Miller winning a striking based decision or knocking Jackson out. But I could also see Jackson being competitive of volume and then top timing Miller for larger swaths of the fight, and winning on the cards that way. I side more with the latter happening but it’s not a confident take.
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On DraftKings, I actually like this fight a decent amount just due to the grappling potential for either side.
Jackson is an interesting target at 8.6k. He’s only won one of his last four fights and didn’t score exceptionally well. I also think the public will want to pass him up, both in favor of fan-favorite Jim Miller, and in favor of paying up for the range above.
With that said, Jackson is pretty reliant on grappling and wrestling. In a win, he could land 3-5 takedowns and earn 5-10 minutes of control. It’s still not a guaranteed smash on DK, but Jackson has reached 100 points before.
I suppose my real issue is that his ceiling may be limited due to finishing equity. Taking Miller down is one thing, but submitting him is another. Jackson is only +285 to win ITD and I won’t pick him to win ITD. For that reason, he doesn’t need to be prioritized.
However, this is a tough range. There are some KO options but none that feel super likely. Jackson has some of the best grappling equity of the bunch. I think it also puts you in a bit different of a construction to those who will pay down and below the mid-range, while paying up for stars.
Jackson feels like a solid secondary/price target to me, with all things considered. His floor in a win should be strong based on his grappling style, and it’s not a bad matchup. He shouldn’t be too popular. He does carry risk in his style though and lacks the finishing equity I’d like to really chase the play. If I need someone in this 8.3k-8.8k range though, I’ll play him.
Miller at 7.6k probably will draw attention as a secondary target.
He is beloved, and typically only wins by early finish. With that said, he’s got a legit ceiling in most matchups even if he’s not super likely to reach it.
This matchup is tough because Miller is the old vet, and he’s at a physicality and wrestling disadvantage. However, he could still jump on a submission in transition, and he probably has some KO upside too. He’s actually got the better ITD line of the two at +200 and so he’ll rate out pretty well in that sense.
I don’t mind getting some shares of Miller. I don’t feel great about this matchup for him, but he’s cheap enough, with enough upside to consider. He won’t really carry any floor so you’re only chasing a finish win though.
At 7.6k, I have some worries Miller is higher owned than he should be, so I may not be able to match the field. He’s a fine secondary/upside target regardless.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Jackson by Decision (Confidence=Low)
David Onama vs. Roberto Romero
Fight Odds: Onama -900, Romero +600
Odds to Finish: Over 1.5 Rounds -135
DraftKings Salaries: Onama 9.7k, Romero 6.5k
Weight Class: 145
A very late notice matchup, David Onama was originally scheduled to face Lucas Almeida but will instead take on newcomer Roberto Romero.
Romero is 8-3-1 professionally at age 24, and he’s earned three wins by knockout and two by submission, coming from the Combate Global organization.
To me, Romero looks to be fairly well-rounded, but not particularly dangerous anywhere.
He’s a capable kickboxer with fast hands, and he is mildly threatening in the pocket. He’s also been able to wrestle at points, and can take down and hold down weaker competition.
His cardio has also shown to be solid with a few wins by decision, and so overall, I’d rate him as a viable round winner who will have clear ceiling limitations.
I just don’t know where he’ll have success at this level. I see Romero possibly being competitive in rounds, possibly having a speed advantage against some opponents but he doesn’t seem to be a major power threat.
His wrestling is OK but it doesn’t look like anything special. His ability to mix up the two and go a full 15 minutes is still a positive, but I’d guess he’ll just be physically outmatched by most in the featherweight division.
Now he gets a very short notice call up against David Onama, which is a tricky spot to make a debut.
Onama is now 4-2 in the UFC and coming off a solid victory against Jonathan Pearce, in which he was tested on the ground more than he has been in any other fight.
Onama faced 14 takedowns in that matchup, and still allowed five of them, but was able to reverse position a bunch of times and scramble free, and land the more effective strikes throughout. Mostly, that kind of fight is exhausting to deal with and I thought it was great to see Onama survive and push through the adversity.
It’s still noteworthy as Onama has now been taken down 18 times in six UFC fights, and he defends takedowns at 52 percent which is pretty poor. I definitely have concerns for him on the mat moving forward, but at least he’s not the type to only give up one takedown and quit.
Onama will still excel the most as a physical athlete and explosive striker, where he’s won multiple times by KO and 11 of his 12 professional victories have come inside the distance.
I’m not sure I feel confident that Onama should be lined north of -1000 to win though, despite the short notice nature. He’s landed 5.04 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 5.10 per minute at a 52 percent defensive rate, which is mediocre.
It has come against good competition, but Onama has only exceeded 71 significant strikes one time in his career, which came in his UFC debut against Mason Jones (a fight he lost). Without damage, I don’t think Onama is going to have a clear path to victory and given some of his defensive flaws, he’s far from a lock.
He should really be the more physical fighter in this matchup against Romero though, and I do think he can match Romero’s speed, and surpass him in power and explosiveness. It’s very possible that Onama can hurt Romero early in the fight and secure a KO. However, Romero was KOd only once in 2019 but has been largely durable otherwise.
My guess is that Romero decides to clinch and wrestle here, which is the easiest path to win and the safest path. Despite him not rating out as some elite wrestler himself, I’m not willing to completely discount that path.
I mean, Jonathan Pearce is very aggressive but he’s not an elite technical wrestler by any stretch of the imagination. Neither is Mason Jones or Nate Landwehr who got Onama down a few times or more.
I do think there’s a chance that Romero can land some takedowns, and potentially take the back. It’s actually a big concern of mine that Onama got put in such bad positions by Pearce, despite reversing the position. You simply cannot count on reversals the highest levels, as better competition will know how to control you and threaten for a finish.
Given Romero’s historically fine cardio, he may actually have a shot here. He definitely has a better shot than the line entails. He could kick the legs of Onama, clinch, land a couple takedowns and extend the fight, and I wouldn’t be shocked.
I still think Onama will be the more effective and dangerous striker, and I favor him overall. I also like the fact that Onama will scramble on the mat and so even if Romero does land a takedown or two, Onama should be able to survive.
It’s quite possible that Romero’s cardio looks worse here than in the past due to the short notice. Onama’s cardio looked great last time but he’s also gassed out before, so overall I just do have some hesitancy. I’ll take Onama to get the job done by default, landing the heavier strikes and probably hurting and finishing Romero at some point.
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On DraftKings, Onama is one of the most expensive fighters on the board at 9.7k and that will make him very difficult to play.
I put Onama in the same tier as Ruffy, in that regardless, we’ll need a quick finish. Even if we get that quick finish, there’s a decent chance that Nickal above, or Jones below can outscore them.
However, I assume both Onama and Ruffy will be lower owned due to the strength of the tier and the names surrounding them.
Onama rates out incredibly well though at -900 to win. His ITD line is not out yet but that will be strong too, though the Over on 1.5 rounds is -135. I feel like the betting line is probably too wide, but either way, he’ll be a boom or bust fantasy asset.
I would just rather put the majority of my investment elsewhere. There are safer options in the surrounding tier, and ones with higher upside. If you’re looking to be a bit different, you can do so here by banking on Onama to win by first round KO, and hoping Nickal underperforms.
He’s a strong play on paper but the price is very expensive and he has a thin window to reach a ceiling. I probably won’t have a ton of exposure.
Romero at 6.7k isn’t fully out of play, as I think he could fight some competitive rounds and maybe mix in some wrestling. That is more of a hope than what we should expect though, at least based on the betting lines.
Romero should be essentially unowned and will have viability for that purpose, but I do like several other fighters in the bottom tier more than him. So ultimately, he’s just a dart throw, and not one I will get to often or at all with a limited portfolio.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Onama by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium)
Marcin Tybura vs. Jhonata Diniz
Fight Odds: Tybura -154, Diniz +133
Odds to Finish: -325
DraftKings Salaries: Jones 9.5k, Miocic 6.7k
Weight Class: HW
I’ve had my eye on this matchup for a couple weeks now, as it was announced shortly after Jhonata Diniz’ previous fight fell off with Derrick Lewis, and instead he’ll take on Marcin Tybura this Saturday.
Diniz has now won three straight, including his DWCS fight which only lasted a few minutes, but he’s most recently coming off a decision victory over Karl Williams. It was a bit of a surprise to see Williams strike with Diniz considering his pedigree, and Williams was unable to test Diniz on the mat until late.
That is very obviously going to be the biggest issue for Diniz moving forward. He was taken down by Austen Lane in the first round, and held down for the entire round. When he was eventually taken down by Williams, he was held down and beaten up.
Conversely on the feet, Diniz is very technical and capable with real power for the HW division. He’s 8-0 in pro MMA with seven victories by KO, and it will be dangerous for most to stand in front of him.
I actually wouldn’t consider Diniz the best athlete though, nor is he gonna throw crazy volume. In the HW division, there’s already so much variance that having a striking background isn’t necessarily a game breaker, but Diniz at least has a clear path to victory while standing and he will likely continue to have success with damage.
It was also great to see him physically go 15 minutes in his last fight. He didn’t slow down dramatically and I’d feel somewhat comfortable in his cardio moving forward. Wrestling will be a real issue though.
That’s where the rubber will meet the road on Saturday as Diniz will face off with the grappler Marcin Tybura.
Perhaps it’s unfair to label Tybura as a grappler because he is well-rounded, and he’s also toward the tail end of his career where he’s had many ups and downs. He’s coming off a submission loss to Serghei Spivac in August where I backed him as well.
In that fight, Spivac landed an early takedown and Tybura was able to reverse the position, but within a minute, Spivac tossed up an armbar attempt from his back and secured it, which I have to admit was impressive.
I’ve always had a soft spot for Tybura because he’s well-rounded and can grapple, which is rare for the HW division. He’s also been knocked out a handful of times, by Derrick Lewis, Tom Aspinall, Augusto Sakai, and others.
That’s been the real drawback of his game and it’s led to some inconsistency over the years. More recently, he’s been able to work his ground game which I do think is his biggest strength.
Tybura lands 1.42 takedowns per 15 minutes and is a BJJ black belt. In his most recent win against Tai Tuivasa, Tybura ate some early shots but eventually found the takedown, and from there he took the back and choked Tybura out.
On the feet, Tybura is still very capable, and lands 3.57 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 3.34 per minute. He can hang around but his durability and power isn’t the best, so I won’t ever be confident in him there.
Even as a grappler, Tybura just isn’t the best athlete. He’s not going to easily land takedowns and smash guys. But he’s capable, and his ground game is very solid.
It’s perhaps not the best compliment, but I do think Tybura will have a clear path to victory on the ground against Diniz.
Diniz has been physically unable to get up from under both Lane and Williams, and he lost clear rounds to both parties. It’s difficult to watch that and not have concerns for him moving forward, and it seems very clear to me that if Tybura gets on top, he’ll have real round-winning and finishing equity.
To be completely honest, Lane sucks on the ground. Williams is a fine wrestler but has no real finishing instincts. Tybura may not be an elite wrestler but he’s a far more effective submission grappler than those other opponents and it may only take one ground exchange for him to finish Diniz.
I also trust Tybura in extended fights, though he’ll continue to need takedowns. He’s gone the five-round distance before and is certainly capable of going three rounds.
I just see this as an obvious striker vs. grappler dynamic, and I have to lean toward the grappler in this situation. It’s very possible that Diniz will be able to hurt Tybura before Tybura gets a chance to wrestle, or maybe Diniz will fend off one early attempt.
Tybura will know that he needs the fight on the mat and he can shoot double legs. Diniz has tipped over pretty easily in the past and from there he cannot get up. It favors the grappler moderately in my mind and I will once again side with Tybura to get his hand raised.
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On DraftKings, this is absolutely a fight I am eyeing given the binary dynamic.
I honestly don’t expect the fight to last that long, and it’s currently lined -325 to end ITD although it’s also -140 to go Over 1.5 rounds.
I just don’t love Tybura’s durability, and Diniz is an effective striker. If these guys exchange for a round, I think there’s a pretty good chance Diniz will find a kill shot.
And Tybura will look to grapple, where he can dominate as well. The winner here has a very real chance to win ITD early, while dominating, and that can score very well with mid-range prices.
Tybura is priced at 8.2k and he’s my preferred play in the matchup. He recently scored 120 in a first-round sub against Tuivasa, which is not a score he can likely duplicate, but I do think 90-100 is in play.
Even in a decision, if Tybura wins, he’s very likely getting multiple rounds on top with tons of control, where he can also land lots of significant strikes. Perhaps there’s not a 120-point ceiling in that case, but at 8.2k, I don’t think Tybura needs that much.
Tybura is +195 to win ITD and one of my favorite plays on the slate all things considered. This is an extremely binary matchup though and if he loses, it will likely come early and with no real floor attached.
Diniz is also a very strong play at 8k and someone I will have exposure to. While in other cases, I may not play both sides, I just see this as an obvious binary dynamic and Tybura has been finished in round one several times.
Diniz is a kickboxer and that’s the only thing he can do – if he wins, it will come with damage. He is +100 to win ITD and there’s a decent chance that win comes in round one as well.
Despite his recent 54 and 91 point wins, I honestly think Diniz has more upside in this matchup than in his past two. Even if I am heavy on Tybura, I would consider moderate exposure to Diniz and wouldn’t mind being near or above the field on his side as well.
I also think it’s totally fine to side with Diniz outright and come in heavy on his side, just given the variance early KO upside. I would still recommend moderate exposure to Tybura in this case and as you can tell, I like this fight a lot and would probably aim to make it a priority in my portfolio overall.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Tybura by RNC, RD 1 (Confidence=Low)
Mickey Gall vs. Ramiz Brahimaj
Fight Odds: Gall -140, Brahimaj +122
Odds to Finish: +100
DraftKings Salaries: Gall 8.3k, Brahimaj 7.9k
Weight Class: 170
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Mickey Gall’s a guy who largely got into the UFC by proxy for his freakshow fight bookings with Mike Jackson and CM Punk back in 2016. He returned from a two-year layoff last time out and appeared to have made some evolutions in his game despite a losing effort. But he’s still by and large struggled when taking steps up in competition – he’s 6-6 in the UFC and 7-6 as a pro. Ramiz Brahimaj bypassed the Contender Series, debuting back in 2020. He since hasn’t been the most active fighter and has been up and down – he’s 2-3 in the UFC and 10-5 as a pro.
The striking component:
Gall’s a lanky guy for the division standing 6’2” with a 74” reach. He’s a grappler by base so his stand-up has left a bit more to be desired over the years.
In his defense, we’ve seen some maturation in his standup in his more recent fights as it appears there’s a bit more process with it now.
He’s struggled to string together combinations over the course of his career as he can be overcommital with more blitzing types of shots.
However, he’s shown some sneaky power elements with a couple UFC knockdowns, and he’s hurt a few other guys as well – specifically Jordan Williams a few fights back so he’s not a guy that opponents can sleep on either because he can sneak stuff in.
But in facing some of the better strikers in guys like Brown, Perry, Morono and Malott, he’s by and large struggled and was hurt in three of those four fights.
Even him having competitive minutes with a guy like Salim Touahri who turned out to be a bum is concerning – he got hurt by the ghost of Diego Sanchez as well.
Despite getting out landed by Hafez last time out, he still achieved a lot of success in that fight and struck very competitively – also hurt Hafez on multiple occasions.
Overall, he’s still only 32 years old now training at Kill Cliff FC in Florida (good camp), so I would anticipate continued improvements from Gall standing but it’s pretty hard to be confident in him minute to minute in more extended exchanges across from a capable opponent.
Ramiz is a grappler by base but has some okay boxing when he’s fresh.
The best way to describe his standup is he’ll work a more methodical pace and engage in the mid-range, but has gone buck wild early in fights as well.
Despite keeping a higher guard, he is hittable and opponents have been able to get off on him in extended striking affairs.
He was out struck at distance 73-45 in his debut against Max Griffin but to his credit, not an easy debut and did have some success of his own – he just got beat to the punch and struggled primarily with the jab and the movement of Griffin.
His fight with McGee didn’t have a ton of range time but he was 2x’d on strikes and only defended distance strikes at 43%.
But even regionally defensively, he kind of just blocks punches with his face and doesn’t seem to be very cognoscente in terms of the defensive striking – more of a zombie archetype but to his credit, he’s proven durable, but he’s been dinged a few times in fights now.
Overall, I’ve never seen him really put a pace on an opponent in the striking and clearly win there, coupled with him having no finishes via KO/TKO professionally. His stand up is still pretty raw in my eyes and it’s where Ramiz needs the most development in his game.
How it plays out: Off the top, Gall will realize a size advantage with 4” in height and 2” in reach. Both guys’ issues standing have been well documented, but I’d have to favor Gall on the feet. Outside of size, he is a more proven distance commodity in the sense, we’ve seen more of him there and I have seen better things more recently in his career. Gall’s longer-range attacks, specifically in his straights, will give some bigger issues to Brahimaj and Gall has shown some cheeky power on the feet over the years. Whereas, Brahimaj hasn’t shown to possess any real power components and is arguably worse defensively than Gall who’s been hurt himself.
The wrestling/grappling component:
As noted, Gall is a grappler by base and reps a BJJ black belt. The floor has been the ultimate factor in his UFC successes with five of his six promotional wins coming via RNC.
However, he’s not a good wrestler, only landing 1.2 TDs per 15 minutes at 32%.
He has shown some good timing on his TDs at times though when guys overextend on shots to where he can shoot under, but being a base jiu-jitsu guy, he doesn’t really possess much chain wrestling as someone who needs the initial entry or an opening in transition to the back quickly.
It also needs to be noted that the bulk of guys he’s had success on have been relatively negative grapplers.
Defensively, he’s had struggles with the wrestling, only stuffing TDs at 37% — part of that is also that Gall can pull guard or pull for guillotine attempts which contributes to that number.
Outside of sweeping Randy Brown, he will throw stuff up and has an active guard, but will play from his back to where he’s gotten ridden out or pounded on as well – Brown ultimately top timed him, Sanchez pounded him out and Mike Perry even took ground minutes from him which isn’t the best of looks as a base brawl-boxer.
However, despite being taken down three times in the last outing by Hafez, his get ups looked improved as he showed more urgency, and Hafez is a good wrestler.
Overall, Gall has good jiu-jitsu and isn’t a guy opponents want on their backs but he’s going to have to patch up his overall wrestling game because he can be shut out and/or give away rounds fishing.
This is Ramiz’s strong suit as he holds a BJJ purple belt and has won IBJJF tournaments at the level in the past.
He’s pretty consistent to attempt TDs and work to take backs and necks, or lock up guillotine chokes.
For a base BJJ guy, his wrestling is okay and he’s been able to get the large majority of guys down when he commits to TDs.
The issue is that when he’s fought opponents who are more competent in the defensive wrestling or grappling, he can struggle with control and guys are able to work back up on him – most notably against Cutts and Patterson back regionally – two fights he dropped on the cards where he wasn’t able to secure early submissions.
It also needs to be noted that his gas tank is poor – in both of those fights mentioned above when resistance was applied, he gassed.
I also found it interesting that he didn’t attempt one TD against Max Griffin in his debut and was losing the striking exchanges cleanly – he’s wrestled in every fight prior – I wonder if it was because he was trying to preserve his gas tank but it’s speculation on my part – point being, his gas looked better but he didn’t wrestle at all and didn’t throw a ton.
He got washed by McGee, getting taken down five times and controlled for 11 minutes. Similar story happened in his fight with Gorimbo where he was taken down five times and was controlled for 10 minutes.
In Brahimaj’s defense, a chunk of that control in both fights also came against the fence so he will look to work back to the feet.
Bringing it full circle, the farthest a Ramiz fight has gone in a W is the halfway mark.
How it plays out: Analyzing the floor is a bit tricky here considering both guys have been primary front loaded transitional grapplers. Despite Brahimaj’s recent struggles with grinding gameplans against McGee and Gorimbo, both of those guys are better wrestlers than Gall and documented grinders which isn’t in Gall’s traditional rolodex. So, I’d anticipate Brahimaj to have a wrestling advantage in this fight but then again, he hasn’t shown he can wrestle offensively for a full 15 minutes. Both guys have good jiu-jitsu, but I would give the advantage to Gall in that department. But both have also never been submitted before so assessing ground finish equity is a bit difficult.
This is one of the lesser fights on the card and I’ve just never been a proponent of either guy considering the gaping holes that they’ve shown in their respective games. But the matchmaking is good here as it’s probably a loser leaves town type of fight, and the style dynamic is interesting. It’s hard to be confident in picking a winner but I lean to the Gall side for a few reasons. One, he’s shown that he’s actually making some improvements in his game whereas Brahimaj has just always been the same guy. Second, Gall should serve as the more dangerous fighter in the matchup. Lastly, Gall is an east coast guy and this is more of a “hometown” fight for him so if it does go to the cards and is close, Gall may get some additional favor from the crowd.
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On DraftKings, this is a dangerous mid-range fight that’s almost certain to be messy.
In that, there’s some upside. Brahimaj has never won a fight by any other method than submission, and he’s been kind of ragdolled in most of his losses.
Brahimaj is priced at 7.9k and is the easier target in the sense of upside. If he wins, it very likely comes via wrestling, and an early submission. He’s +255 to win ITD and his two wins in the UFC have scored 105 and 98.
Honestly, from a pure rating sense, Brahimaj is a strong tournament target. He’s not likely to be super chalk because it’s an ugly, low-level matchup and I’d expect most won’t even pick him to win. But if he wins, there’s a reasonable chance he’ll compete for the optimal.
With that said, I’m not picking him to win either and I wouldn’t be comfortable with much exposure. He fits best for me as a standard, secondary target for upside purposes. Being above the field is OK based on theory but my expectation is that Brahimaj has a couple of decent minutes and then looks poor the rest of the way.
Gall at 8.3k is tougher because he’s not a fighter who I’d typically want to target either. This isn’t a great matchup, but it’s not the worst either.
Gall has typically been on the wrong end of distance exchanges and he’s been hurt often, but in theory he’ll have an edge here. He could have some KD upside. He could also have wrestling and submission upside though I think that’s more tied to Brahimaj slowing down.
Either way, Gall is +255 to win ITD which isn’t great but shows some finishing capability. He’s topped 70 points one time in his last seven tries, so it’s hard to stomach much exposure and I doubt he’ll be very popular publicly either.
I don’t mind him as a secondary target, similar to Brahimaj. I wouldn’t want to be too far above the field but he rates out OK and could be lower owned than he should be based on pure matchup rating and metrics.
This is a very ugly fight to be honest with both sides having clear flaws. With any decent sized portfolio, I’m likely aiming to match the field and not worry too much about the result. It’s also not the worst spot to try and get slightly above the market given the questionable defense and cardio from both sides.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Gall by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Bassil Hafez vs. Oban Elliott
Fight Odds: Elliott -284, Hafez +232
Odds to Finish: +190
DraftKings Salaries: Elliott 8.8k, Hafez 7.4k
Weight Class: 170
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
Both Oban Elliott and Bassil Hafez are coming off victories inside the Octagon and will they will square off on Saturday in what should be a fun matchup.
Oban Elliott really burned me in his last fight against Preston Parsons. I had a bet on Parsons and was not too impressed with Elliott going into that fight. I will give it to Elliott though, he performed well, especially defensively, and proved to me that he was better than I was giving him credit for going in.
Elliott basically neutralized Parsons’ wrestling game and landed the better strikes at range. Elliott also controlled Parsons a bit against the fence. The fight was still very competitive though and Elliott only landed one takedown and 44 significant strikes. So offensively, I still do have concerns with Elliott, but I do think he is a decent neutralizer.
In Elliott’s UFC debut against Val Woodburn, he basically got hurt by Woodburn, but then won the fight by moderately outlanding Woodburn at distance and obtaining some takedowns and body triangles. Woodburn is TERRIBLE though and still landed two takedowns against Elliott which was concerning. So I was kind of surprised when Elliott completely shut down the grappling of Parsons.
Elliott won a majority decision on the Contender Series back in August of last year. He outlanded his opponent 36-31 at distance, landed four takedowns, and obtained 4:25 of control.
Elliott is British and is 11-2 professionally, with most of his fights taking place in Cage Warriors which is a solid regional promotion.
On the feet, he has some okay technical boxing, but I do not love volume and he looks to just limit striking engagements. I don’t think he is bad on the feet but I do not think he is great either. I have also seen him hurt standing as well in multiple matchups. He has a little speed and a little technicality though.
Elliott likes to mix in takedowns occasionally. He has a decent double leg, and he at least will mix in a healthy dosage of takedown attempts. The issue is I don’t actually think he is a great wrestler. He also doesn’t have the best top control. Furthermore, in his two losses, I have seen him taken down, mounted, beaten up and finished. I am also not quite confident in his physicality either. He looked really vulnerable in those two losses in the grappling exchanges in general.
I also just don’t know how dangerous this guy is. He has won by decision in his last five fights and most of his finishes have come against guys with sub .500 records. Usually these guys don’t come to the UFC and randomly become prolific finishers. I am honestly shocked he couldn’t finish Woodburn either. He looks like he can semi strike, semi land takedowns but that is about it. I am not even sure he is good at either of those things and he may be a defensive liability on the mat.
Look, a lot of my concerns with Elliott come from his regional tape. I have seen him look bad off his back and I have seen him badly hurt several times. However, he did look improved against Parsons. Perhaps he has really improved and his weaknesses are now gone. His defensive grappling looked A LOT better than I thought it would against Parsons.
However, the one time Elliott was actually grounded by Parsons, he started playing guard. I still think he may have issues when grounded, he may have chin issues, and he does at least look to have offensive output issues. I really just want to see more of Elliott to ensure that the performance against Parsons was not fools gold. I will be fair to him going forward if he passes a couple of more tests. I do think he looks reasonably skilled defensively though and seems to be a decent neutralizer.
Elliott will be taking on Bassil Hafez. Hafez is 9-4-1 professionally with most of his career coming in random regional promotions.
Hafez made a memorable UFC debut against Jack Della Maddalena in July of 2023. Hafez had a lot of success in the fight as a huge underdog on short notice. He landed three takedowns and attempted 20. He obtained about seven minutes of control. He was outstruck pretty clearly though and lost the significant strike battle 83-32.
Hafez then bounced back with a hard fought win against Mickey Gall in June of this year. He generally decided to strike against Gall and outlanded Gall 95-83 in significant strikes. He mixed in three takedowns but couldn’t do much with them. Hafez basically landed the harder shots early but then Gall had success down the stretch and Hafez looked to slow down.
Hafez is kind of just a decent wrestle boxer. On the feet, he can absolutely wing bombs, especially early. He landed on Gall hard. I also saw him hurt a lot of guys with overhand rights on the regionals. The issue is I don’t think he is a great technical striker standing, he slows down, and is not great defensively. He seems tough though and has never been knocked out before.
Hafez has some pretty explosive takedowns especially early. He can land takedowns, advance position, and threaten with submissions. I do think he is decent on top. He also seems pretty decent as a defensive grappler. He has never been submitted and seems to have decent tdd and scrambling ability. I have seen Hafez give up his back a little bit when he has been tired though. So that is a bit of a concern.
As far as this matchup goes, I think both guys have ways to land some offense. I do think Elliott is the more technical striker which is why I am going to pick him to win. Elliott just seems better defensively to me with better cardio, and he should have an edge later in this fight.
I still do think Hafez could hurt Elliott on the feet though, especially early. Furthermore, Elliott’s volume issues still scare me. Hafez may still just be able to compete in the striking rounds with aggression alone.
Furthermore, I really think Hafez can land takedowns here early, and I still am not sold on Elliott’s bottom game. I would not be all that surprised if Hafez landed takedowns and put Elliott in danger. I just can’t get those sequences of Elliott getting finished on the mat in the regionals out of my head even if he looked improved against Parsons. Elliott is just going to have to show me a bigger sample size of improvement before I dismiss what I saw on the regionals.
I still think a lot of Hafez’s success will have to come early though. I trust Elliott much more over the duration. Elliott can likely land takedowns here and maybe get the back of Hafez especially when Hafez slows down.
I overall will pick Elliott here. I trust him more defensively on the feet and I like his cardio much more. Still though, Hafez has some ways to have success here. Hafez could be the more aggressive party, test the chin of Elliott, or maybe have some grappling success. So I do think this line seems a tad wide.
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On DraftKings, this is one of my favorite fights that has a chance to be overlooked by the public.
Elliott is priced at 8.8k and it will be really difficult to prioritize him. He beat Val Woodburn and scored 102 in a decision, but is coming off a 62-point decision which is much less useful.
I think he’s going to be outshined by Oliveira who is priced right above him, and many will want to pay further into the 9k range. I do think it’s possible that the mid 8k range will be avoided though, so Elliott could get some ownership from that grouping.
I am not super high on Elliott in this spot, but what I do like is that if he wins, I think it could come with takedowns and/or damage. Hafez was getting hurt by Mickey Gall, and Jack Della Maddalena in the fight prior. He also gave up very easy takedowns to Gall.
My guess is that Hafez will just get back up to his feet, but I don’t love his initial takedown defense, and if he’s tired, Elliott could maybe get on top and take the back. I think he has some finishing equity as well but he’s only +450 to win ITD.
That feels surprisingly low to me. I get that Elliott is more of a decision machine but I’m just a little distrusting of Hafez’ defense. So if the public is going to be completely off Elliott based on his weak ITD props, I would consider him a pretty viable contrarian target.
Ultimately, there are better plays on this slate, and safer ones. Elliott isn’t a guarantee even in a win but if he projects to be low owned, he’s one place where I wouldn’t mind targeting as a differentiator.
Hafez at 7.4k interests me as well and I also think the betting line is too wide here.
There are concerns with Hafez, but was willing to go to war with Gall and volume alone puts him in play. Elliott has been hurt before, even by crappy competition in the UFC, so Hafez has some KO upside. Hafez could also land takedowns.
The concern here is more that Elliott looked really sharp in takedown defense in his last fight, so it’s possible he just shuts that down and neutralizes the entire fight. I don’t think Hafez is a must at all.
It’s a similar situation though. Elliott has shown weak striking defense and questionable grappling in the past. Hafez has landed 3 takedowns in each of his two UFC fights. If he wins, there is some upside I believe and I doubt he will be too popular.
I actually find it interesting that Hafez’ ITD line is better at +300, and perhaps that will draw some attention. He’s priced between Moura and Chandler though who I expect will both be higher owned.
So again, Hafez feels like a decent spot to be different. He has paths to win, which includes some grappling and finishing equity, and he won’t be chalk. He’s an intriguing secondary target overall and one place I will use to save salary on occasion.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Elliott by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Veronica Hardy vs. Eduarda Moura
Fight Odds: Hardy -131, Moura +114
Odds to Finish: +215
DraftKings Salaries: Hardy 8.7k, Moura 7.5k
Weight Class: 125
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have an interesting fight here in the flyweight division as Eduarda Moura will take on Veronica Hardy this weekend.
Eduarda Moura actually missed weight in her last two strawweight fights so it looks like the UFC is forcing her to move up a weight class.
Moura is 10-1 professionally and is a grappling oriented fighter. She booked her ticket to the UFC by submitting her opponent on the Contender Series in the first round. In her UFC debut, she dominated Montserrat Ruiz on the mat and finished her.
Before the UFC, Moura basically dominated bad competition and almost always finished them in the first round. Honestly, I do like her takedowns. She is skilled on the mat from a top game perspective. She knows how to float in top position and advance from position to position. I do think she is an interesting prospect simply because she is a solid grappler in general.
Moura did show some weaknesses in her last fight against Denise Gomes though. It was a close fight and Moura lost by split decision. Moura landed five takedowns and attempted 26 of them. It was good to see her tenaciously going after her takedowns. However, she slowed down badly and lost the total strike battle 137-27. The fight just showed that if Moura can be resisted to a degree, she can tire and get beaten up a bit.
I will say that 26 takedown attempts is A LOT and even through fatigue, Moura still landed a takedown in the third round against Gomes. So I will defend Moura to a degree. Still though, it is pretty clear that she is going to have to land submissions quickly or just experience mild resistance to cleanly win fights. She honestly will probably be able to dominate the low tiers of this promotion with her early grappling storm. However, when she gets resisted she is going to have issues.
Moura will be taking on Veronica Hardy. I had always thought Veronica Hardy was terrible. She has always had a disjointed game and cardio issues. She always had a couple of raw skills and speed here and there. However, she never impressed me and went 1-4 in her first five ufc fights.
Hardy then took three years off and returned to the cage against Julianna Miller in March of last year. She was a huge underdog but surprised most people in that performance, including me, where she won by a dominant decision.
She actually looked a little more calm on the feet and controlled distance well with footwork and lateral movement. She picked her shots well landing some occasional leg kicks and punches in the pocket. She fought at a measured pace. Hardy also landed four takedowns, rode out top position, and stopped all of the takedown attempts by Julianna Miller.
Look, Julianna Miller isn’t very good. I also still don’t think Hardy is very good either. However, Hardy did show some improvements in that fight. She at least has some technique and fought more calculated in the fight in general. She just looked a bit more measured out there. Her cardio looked a bit better too because she actually fought thoughtfully and measured.
Hardy then took on Jamey-Lyn Horth where she won by decision. She won the first couple of rounds by fighting at the same measured pace on the feet. She picked her shots well on the feet by controlling range and sprinting in and out. Hardy then defeated JJ Aldrich and won by decision, and you saw her implement the same gameplan. She fought measured on the feet and used her speed to blitz in and out on the feet and win a couple of striking rounds.
I still have questions about Hardy. I don’t think she is all that great offensively anywhere. She also has shown cardio issues in the past. I also don’t like her bottom game in past fights either. She ended up on the mat against Horth and Aldrich. I do think she at least used her legs to create space and escape though. It showed that she will try to actually resist and won’t completely accept bottom position.
That is why I am actually leaning Hardy in this fight against Moura. I definitely think Moura can land takedowns here, especially early as Hardy only defends takedowns at 60 percent. However, if Moura doesn’t land an early submission then I think Hardy will be able to resist the grappling to a degree later in this fight and will clearly be landing the cleaner strikes throughout the fight. Hardy also has skills on the mat and my guess is that she can avoid getting submitted early the majority of the time.
So I am basically going to pick Hardy to survive the early storm and just land some cleaner strikes throughout the fight. I still think this could get really sloppy though. Even if Hardy survives early and Moura slows down, Hardy may slow down as well. We have seen Hardy gas before so Moura may not be at a tremendous disadvantage later in this fight.
Still though, Hardy will most certainly land the cleaner strikes throughout this fight and judges generally like damage these days. I basically expect both girls to have success in their respective areas but the judges will likely favor the striking of Hardy a tad more.
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On DraftKings, I am going the other direction and will be playing quite a bit of Moura personally.
I actually agree with Tim’s analysis here and I think the general dynamic is pretty clear, but I ultimately am very skeptical that Hardy can defend takedowns.
Hardy just isn’t a very effective offensive fighter, and she’s not the most physical fighter either. She’s landed 36 and 43 sig. strikes in her past two decisions which is not the type of output that’s really going to gas out Moura.
Also, Moura is a world above both Horth and Aldrich, who kind of suck on the mat. I absolutely expect Moura to tire out as the fight goes on, and that could still lead to a loss, but I also think she’s very likely to have success early on.
And attempting 20+ takedowns tells me that Moura at least has a path to winning late. She could get on top and ride out some position. Hardy isn’t egregiously bad on her back but she’ll be at a disadvantage there for sure.
Also, Hardy relies on her kicking game a lot which is going to give Moura more avenues to land takedowns. I do think her pocket boxing is better than Moura’s, as is her cardio, but really this fight will come down to whether she can defend takedowns and get back up to her feet.
Moura is priced at 7.5k which is super cheap, especially for a +125 underdog, so there is mild value on that DK line as well. I think it could lead to some popularity for Moura, but also coming off a tough loss to Gomes where she gassed out, I doubt Moura gets steamed.
Again, there’s risk to this play. Moura probably will tire and slow down. But her path to victory seems very much tied to wrestling, and I think it’s a good spot for her to land multiple takedowns, with control. She’s also +300 to win ITD which isn’t horrible for the price.
Moura is one of my favorite underdogs on the slate all things considered, and I will be overweight to the field.
Hardy at 8.7k is closer to a fade for me. Honestly, I think her best chance at the optimal is getting taking down and randomly landing an armbar from guard or something.
In her last two wins, Hardy has scored 51 and 59 DK points, which is awful. Prior to that, she scored 92, but that came with four takedowns and ground domination. I seriously doubt that path is in play here and if anything, she’s likely to be held down on her back.
Hardy is +600 to win ITD which is awful as well. Her striking isn’t super dangerous so I’m not extremely fearful of a KO. Maybe if Moura gasses horribly there’s some finishing upside but it’s not enough for me to actively chase this play.
I do think Hardy will be low owned and will fall into the contrarian category. I still don’t love her as a target and with a limited portfolio, I would lean toward being extremely light or fading altogether.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Moura by Decision (Confidence=Low)