UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Figueiredo (11/23/24)
Note: Please read the full analysis, that is much more important than who I pick to win. The confidence relates to my pick to win, not the path to victory. Picks are NOT bets. Matchup breakdowns are written by Brett unless otherwise noted, and all DraftKings analysis is written by Brett. Both Technical Tim and Luke Lampe will also contribute to matchup breakdowns.
MAIN CARD
Petr Yan vs. Deiveson Figueiredo
Fight Odds: Yan -316, Figueiredo +255
Odds to Finish: +120
DraftKings Salaries: Yan 9k, Figueiredo 7.2k
Weight Class: 135
Two fan-favorites and two action fighters, Petr Yan will take on Deiveson Figueiredo this weekend in our UFC China main event.
Figueiredo has looked pretty solid since moving up from 125 to 135, where he was a champion. He’s won comfortable decisions against Marlon Vera and Rob Font, and he submitted Cody Garbrandt in April as well.
I’ve never been a huge fan of Figueiredo, but I don’t think he’s an awful fighter. It’s just that his metrics don’t stand out to me as a fighter deserving of being a champion.
He still lands strikes at a surprisingly low rate of 3.01 per minute, while absorbing 3.39 per minute with a 51 percent defensive rate. Getting hit more often than you hit your opponents is usually a bad sign.
As a wrestler, Figgy is OK. He lands 1.68 takedowns per 15 minutes but defends at 58 percent. He can definitely be taken down and held down at times, but he’s competent on the mat and a capable submission grappler.
He’s actually leaned more into his wrestling since moving up to 135, and has landed seven takedowns in his past three fights. I especially liked him taking down and submitting Garbrandt, who is dangerous on the feet. It just shows another path to victory for Figgy.
With that said, I don’t fully trust him as a wrestler, and I don’t fully trust his pace. He’s a notorious cheater as well (commits fouls), and I think he’s largely dependent on damage or big moments to dominate fights.
That will be a challenge for him against Yan, who’s aiming to turn his career around after losing four of his past six fights. Granted, there are a couple of controversial losses in that span, but Yan has failed to put his stamp on some fights than many expected he would.
Yan is a very good boxer and that is his primary skill set, where he lands 5.14 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 4.36 per minute with a 58 percent defensive rate.
He can strike at a really high volume, and he’s topped out at 149 and 194 sig. strikes landed against Sandhagen and Aldo. He’s also been a major power threat, earning 10 knockdowns in his 13 UFC bouts.
That was one reason why the public overrated him though. He had actually landed 10 knockdowns in his first nine UFC fights, and the public just assumed that trend would always continue, where there is a lot of variance that come with knockdowns. Now he’s failed to land a single knockdown in his past four fights.
The other main issue that Yan has is that he starts slow. He loses the first round at a dramatically high rate, and that again includes his most recent victory over Song Yadong where he needed to come from behind.
He likes to build in fights, and over five rounds, it’s not a terrible thing because he has plenty of time to work with. In three round fights, it’s super annoying. Regardless, it’s a clear flaw in his style and you shouldn’t be surprised if he lands 13 strikes in round one and is down on the scorecards.
His overall technique and pacing do pick up, and over five rounds, his pacing still rates out fine.
He can also wrestle, though it’s been hit or miss in the UFC. He’s not a great wrestler, primarily via control, but he still lands 1.73 takedowns per 15 minutes and is reasonably technical.
Unless you can take his back, he’s going to be hard to control defensively, and his TDD rates out well at 85 percent. Aljamain Sterling was able to beat him there but only barely, and I don’t think someone like Figueiredo compares in that regard.
This is an interesting matchup because I think Yan is better than Figueiredo, but there are still paths to a competitive fight.
For example, Yan could start slow and simply not produce a lot of offense. Figueiredo will want to play a slow distance game most likely as well, and we might just see limited action to start.
Figueiredo is probably more prone to brawling but he typically doesn’t come out ahead very often, unless he’s finding the knockdown. Yan rarely gets hurt, and he’s only been knocked down once officially, so I don’t think Figgy putting him away is very likely.
Conversely, Figueiredo has shown an insane chin at times too, but he’s been hurt on occasion, primarily by Moreno.
I don’t think it’s likely either man has dominating success as a wrestler. I highly doubt Figueiredo can take Yan down and even if he does, I don’t think he can control Yan or submit him. Yan may or may not choose to wrestle. He may find some success but he’ll let Figueiredo up too easily so it may not matter.
Ultimately I think the winner of the striking will be the winner of this fight, and I have to lean toward Yan in that regard for overall offensive production.
I like his production over 25 minutes more than I like Figueiredo’s. Yan may start slow, but as he builds, he’s more likely to take over with pacing and he is the better technical boxer. Figgy historically has trouble getting ahead on the numbers, and I don’t think his chances of finding one big KO shot are much better than Yan’s, if at all.
So I’ll pick Yan to win in a fight that starts off slow and builds, with him potentially beating up Figgy in the latter portion.
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On DraftKings, it’s not the clearest main event I’ve ever analyzed, but both sides are viable as always.
Yan is priced at 9k and I assume he’ll be one of the more popular fighters on this slate. With five rounds to work with, Yan should produce a decent result in a victory.
My primary fear is sort of what I’ve outlined above. Yan might start slow, he might not wrestle with any urgency, and he might win a decision. He did score 108 points against Sandhagen in a five-round decision, but that also came with a 10-point knockdown and 5-point reversal.
So it’s quite possible that Yan could land 120 sig. strikes over 25 minutes and only score like 80 in a win. He has several three-round decisions in the 78-80 point range.
Simply mixing in 2-3 takedowns would be very helpful in that regard, and I do think it’s more likely than not that Yan attempts a few. I’m just hesitant to say it’s a guarantee.
Yan is also +175 to win ITD which does show finishing equity, but not a ton. The fight is actually -150 to go the full 25 minute distance, which you could view as a concern. Without a KD, Yan definitely has a path to underperforming.
Given his popularity and the strength of the range, I wouldn’t think you’re crazy to be underweight in large fields. It’s quite possible we see KOs from Zhang, and Ulberg, for example who are priced directly above or below Yan.
I’d also say Yan has one of the safer floors on the slate in a win, and he’ll be far less boom or bust than those other names. In cash or smaller fields, I’d definitely just prefer to play Yan who should score well and could still surpass 100 points in a variety of ways.
In large fields, he’s still an easy target and someone I’d like moderate exposure to. Depending on the size of your portfolio, occasionally pivoting away from the main event in favor of some other KO options nearby makes sense too.
Figueiredo at 7.2k is a stand out in terms of name value in the bottom range.
I don’t think we’ll see much ownership on any fighter priced below him, and I expect Ricci and Tumendemberel to be others who gain attention in the 7k range.
So despite a tough matchup, at 7.2k, Figgy should be quite popular.
I get it. He’s an easy target. He has some KO upside in his profile and I think he could win a competitive decision too.
I also don’t love the matchup, and am not really excited to play him at chalk. He’s +515 to win ITD and probably won’t have much success wrestling. Landing 80-100 sig. strikes over 25 minutes with 1 takedown feels realistic, which is a score of about 40 DK points.
I suppose that if all other dogs lose, a floor like that has some viability. He’s a safe options all things considered in a fight that’s projected to last 25 minutes, and he could be winning early.
I’d lean toward pivoting away more often than the field though. There are several fighters in the 7k range who have KO upside, and should be much lower owned. My feeling is that someone hits.
I don’t mind Figgy for the pure salary savings and of course he has upside in a win, so he will carry secondary viability by default at 7.2k. I’ll be near the field or a bit underweight and may choose to chase some of those other KO targets nearby.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Yan by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Yan Xiaonan vs. Tabatha Ricci
Fight Odds: Xiaonan -194, Ricci +165
Odds to Finish: +275
DraftKings Salaries: Xiaonan 8.8k, Ricci 7.4k
Weight Class: 115
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Yan Xiaonan is rounding out her 7th year on the active roster and looking to rebound from her title loss back in April to Weili Zhang – she’s 8-3 in the UFC and 18-4 as a pro. Tabatha Ricci had a rocky entrance into the UFC, getting pitted against now future title challenger Manon Fiorot on short notice, up a weight class. But in just three years’ time, she’s put together a good resume and has now entered the top 10 – she’s 6-2 in the UFC and 11-2 as a pro.
The striking component:
Yan only stands 5’5 with a 63” reach officially, but she’s always appeared to be a bigger girl at the weight class for me. She’s a pretty talented striker, landing 5 SLpM at 45%.
In that, she’s been able to significantly outpace all her opponents in her UFC wins – the smallest margin being +14 significant strikes which was her last early KO win over Andrade where she caught her coming in.
She’s had a couple cupcakes in there but has beaten some good girls as well in Hill and Gadelha.
She also gave Marina Rodriguez a run for her money and despite being outstruck statistically, Yan arguably got the better of the exchanges in the 1st couple rounds to where giving that fight to her would have been justified in my opinion. Regardless of the official result there, it showed that Yan can compete at a bare minimum with an elite striker of the division.
Yan’s best component outside of her volume and technicality is that she’s got real sting on her shots and has knocked down her last two opponents. She’s also a good kicker who can fight effectively from range well.
The problem with Yan is that she can leave her head right on the center line at times and is there to be hit in the pocket – 3.7 SApM at 58% — statistically pretty decent though, especially given her crazy output numbers, and she’s proven durable historically as well.
She did slow down in the Rodriguez fight, losing the 3rd round and most recently got her ass kicked by Zhang although that was largely from ground striking – the distance numbers were only 34 to 25 in favor of Zhang.
Overall, Yan is an upper tier striker in this division and isn’t going to be an easy girl to outland, repping a positive distance differential of +2.6 per minute.
Ricci’s a shorter girl at the weight class standing 5’1”. She was a muay thai champ in her native Brazil (doesn’t mean much but something to note) and has been striking since she was 15.
However, she’s still developing as an MMA striker but has shown aggressive components on the feet and can be accurate when she gets in tight.
We hadn’t seen a ton of her at distance regionally, but she was winning the striking exchanges – her optics are also good in largely being the one going forward.
In the UFC, she debuted against Fiorot where she got butchered on the feet but considering the circumstances, really no shame. Not to mention that Fiorot is a big 125er and Ricci is a smaller 115er – Fiorot is also about to fight for a belt now – tough girl to draw in your debut.
Her fight against Oliveira also wasn’t particularly encouraging as she struggled with the length of Oliveira and was 2x’d at distance. The distance numbers were competitive against Viana though, despite losing the striking and not much happened in the Penne fight.
She looked good by and large on the feet against Robertson, but Robertson can’t really strike and still took the 2nd round from her standing – not encouraging. I would say this is the area where the most improvement is needed for Ricci as she’s still early on in her MMA career.
However, I thought she fared better on the feet against Godinez than anticipated where she competed to a degree but was outboxed at the end of the day.
She got out struck by Pennington 70-48 at distance in a fight I felt she lost, but struck very competitively with Hill last time out and actually out landed her to the head 82 to 66 which I thought was impressive.
Overall, I think she can be competitive standing in fights against lower to mid-tier strikers because she will spam volume, but will also struggle with effective range games if she can’t work inside considering how small she is. She does move a healthy amount though and can have outside based success against girls who can’t cut her off.
How it plays out: If Ricci can get inside here, she could make things a little interesting. But Yan in totality is a far superior striker to Ricci. She’ll be the bigger/longer girl, has better footwork, movement, technicality, hand speed and hits harder. I do feel Yan is live to hurt Ricci as well just given how she was coming in in the Hill fight. It’s additionally difficult to ignore the striking metrics in the fight as Yan has her covered in every category. It goes without saying that Yan will be the best striker she’s fought to date outside of Fiorot in her debut, who did knock her out but at 125.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Yan is a striker by nature, so we haven’t seen a ton of consistent offensive wrestling from her given the advantages she’s had on the feet. But she does land 1.0 TDs per 15 minutes and gets them at 73%, so she has been very successful when she pursues.
She took Karolina down five times and got 5+ minutes of control time, and also hit a nice foot sweep on Hill.
Her TDs are primarily going to come in the clinch scenarios as she does a good job of manipulating opponent’s weight – we saw a bit of that against Rodriguez as well. She found a bit of success on Zhang in the 2nd round too, but nothing outside of that.
It’s been the defensive wrestling/grappling that has given her some issues historically.
Curran took her down twice, got 7+ minutes of control time and took a round from her in her debut – Hill got her down once, Yan actually got a TD of her own but got caught in a deep triangle, and was saved by the bell at the end of the first. Gadelha took her down twice and got 6+ minutes of control time (partially via cage push), and took a round from her as well.
We saw Carla grind and finish her which is alarming considering Carla doesn’t finish anyone – she stuffed the majority of Dern’s TDs but also got put in some bad spots despite surviving, and lost two rounds there – most recently, she got taken down six times on nine attempts by Zhang, conceding nearly 13 minutes of control, 68 ground strikes and essentially got submitted but was saved by the bell and referee Jason Herzog.
The moral of the story is that Yan’s been able to keep her fights upright “enough” to win most of her fights, stuffing at 62%, but the ground has been what’s led her to additionally dropping minutes, rounds or fights.
Ricci began training in Judo and jiu-jitsu in her teens and achieved black belt status in both disciplines in eight years. She also holds accolades of winning IBJJF titles in both gi and no gi which is one of the higher credentialed grappling tournaments in the world outside of ADCC.
Ricci’s also been a training partner of Mackenzie Dern in the past, but I don’t think they spend much time together anymore.
In MMA, she’s shown to be a capable cage wrestler but is largely reliant on getting her TDs from the body lock, and she needs strong initial bites. She’s not a very good open mat wrestler though but she can hit reactionary stuff here and there or catch kicks.
She lands 2.99 TDs per 15 minutes at 38% and is winning control time positions 95% of the time when her fights are in the grappling.
In her first LFA fight, she was able to largely wrestle the girl for 15 minutes and in her next two she scored finishes from top position via a belly down armbar and a TKO via strikes.
Against Oliveira, the floor was the big difference in the fight where she was able to land five TDs and rack up nearly seven minutes of control – she shot 11 times – her not being able to finish Oliveira was somewhat concerning though.
The floor was also a large component of her beating Viana, landing five TDs and accruing nine minutes of control. She was also able to submit Penne with a nice armbar transition – Penne is nothing special overall as a fighter at 39 years old, but she is a black belt so that’s a nice feather in the cap of Ricci.
She took Robertson down multiple times but didn’t do much with it. She got shut out by Godinez going 0/6 but did have some deep shots early.
She was also essentially shut out by Pennington who stuffed 9 of 10 shots from Ricci – Ricci was able to accrue five minutes of cage control time but didn’t really do anything with it – that was a shit decision in my opinion.
Most recently, she went 3/4 on TDs against Hill, racking up five minutes of control overall but struggled to keep Hill down where the bulk of those control minutes came against the cage.
There’s not much to report for her defensively as most girls aren’t trying to wrestle her. She stuffs at 81% and has been able to work up quickly in the abbreviated times she’s been on the bottom.
Overall, the ground is what’s going to primarily win her fights in the UFC, but she has struggled with some of the more capable TDD she’s fought.
How it plays out: This is the obvious upside to Ricci in the matchup. We are in the big cage this weekend so I think that plays a bit more into Yan’s hands as she’ll have more room to operate and will be more difficult for Ricci to cut her off. However, she’s probably going to shoot double digit TDs where I think Ricci will be able to rack up some cage minutes, probably land a few TDs and I’ve just never really liked what I’ve seen from Yan on the bottom. It really just comes down to how much control you think Ricci can get and/or if can she finish Yan. It’s tricky to quantify but I do think Ricci is going to realize some ground success here.
Solid co-main event on what’s a relatively lackluster card in totality. Going into research, I thought I’d have a more bullish take towards Yan, but I honestly don’t. I’m still picking her to win because I think what she’ll be able to do on the feet will offset Ricci ground success, but this will probably be a 29-28 type of fight should it see the scorecards.
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On DraftKings, I am guessing Ricci will be one of the most popular underdogs on the slate at 7.4k for her grappling upside.
It’s not that she’s a lock – far from it – but the mid-range is tricky and I suspect the public will want to employ more of a stars and scrubs approach.
Ricci is coming off a 102 point decision win, and she’s also scored 74, 86, 123, 93 and 100 in her other UFC victories. At 7.4k, considering this matchup should be more reliant on her finding ground success, I think Ricci has legit upside for the price.
I am going to pick Yan to win, but Yan has some serious ground flaws where she has been exposed on multiple occasions. It simply would not be shocking if Ricci was able to find success, and again at 7.4k, Ricci carries upside.
We don’t even need it to come ITD where Ricci is only +600. I think she has some sub upside but takedowns, control and ground strikes could easily lead her to a 90-100 point score over 15 minutes, as we saw in her last matchup.
Ricci also has a better floor on paper than most in this range. She is very reasonable in cash games as well.
In large fields, you could present the argument that her popularity won’t be worth the squeeze. If she does rate out as chalk, I think there’s a real case to be made to pivot to the likes of a Motta, Kenan, Oezdemir type who should be far less owned but carries early KO equity.
I’ll likely end up with a secondary mix of Ricci. She’s a decent fighter with grappling upside a cheap price tag. I don’t think it’s the easiest matchup though, and I don’t mind being a bit underweight in tournaments, in favor of some other risk/reward types.
Xiaonan at 8.8k doesn’t feel like a great play.
She should be on the wrong end of the grappling exchanges, and I don’t think her striking volume will be enough. She can actually land strikes at a high clip, but 100 over 15 minutes is only a 70 point DK score.
Realistically, Xiaonan needs a knockout. I do think there’s a possibility of that given her advantages at distance, and Ricci has been hurt before, but it’s also a tough outcome to really push for an investment.
Xiaonan is +400 to win ITD so she won’t rate out well in that fashion, and you could argue being very light on her is the right call. There are plenty of other high upside options above the mid-range as well, and in the 9k range, so I think Xiaonan will fall pretty low on the priority list.
I don’t want to completely dismiss her because I think there’s a chance she can stuff takedowns, and beat Ricci up on the feet. A knockdown could occur and maybe Xiaonan finds her way to 90 points over three rounds. But I like her more as a contrarian target and I’d just rather take chances on other fighters who have more finishing equity on paper.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Xiaonan by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Song Kenan vs. Muslim Salikhov
Fight Odds: Salikhov -183, Song +157
Odds to Finish: -115
DraftKings Salaries: Salikhov 8.5k, Song 7.7k
Weight Class: 170
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Song Kenan is rounding out his 7th year on the active roster, where his run has been pretty black and white in the sense that he’s beaten lower-level talents but has lost to the more established ones – he’s 6-4 in the UFC and 22-8 as a pro. Muslim Salikhov’s also rounding out his 7th year on the roster and is at the not so ripe age of 40. But he showed he still has some left in the tank picking up a decision win over Santiago Ponzinibbio back in July – he’s 7-4 in the UFC and 20-4 as a pro.
The striking component:
Song comes from a kickboxing background and falls more into the blitz/counter striker category.
Despite some recent higher volume performances and repping 4.6 SLpM at 47%, I’ve still never considered him a big volume guy. He does have power though, with three of his six UFC wins coming via KO/TKO, and he has hurt three of his last four opponents despite not finishing those fights.
But in the times he’s gotten steps up (I.e. Garry, Griffin, Morono & Jousset), he got KO’d in three of those fights and outworked in the other one.
However, he nearly KO’d Ian Garry in the 1st round when Garry got lazy, which would have been a hilarious upset – quite frankly, if Song didn’t initiate the clinch/grappling after hurting Garry, he may have actually finished there.
But after that sequence subsided, Garry proceeded to put a pace on him and find the finish.
Even in his win over Bedoya, he still got out landed 112 to 75 and his gas tank has generally looked poor in extended fights as he’s largely an early finisher.
I just don’t overtly rate his technical prowess, and he’s very hittable with a negative distance differential of 1.8/minute.
Despite beating up the corpse of Ricky Glenn last time out, he got dropped on the first exchange of the fight and I don’t think he looked all that good in totality.
Overall, despite picking up decisions in his last 2 Ws, I still largely consider Song a power dependent/moments-based fighter who has poor defense and durability issues.
Salikhov comes from a wushu-sanda background and has been given the nickname “The King of Kung Fu” as he’s won world championships in the discipline.
Per his base, he likes to play the range game, blitz into the pocket with strikes, utilize a lot of kicks and look to counter – similar to a karate style but with a tad less dancing.
He’s shown power components with his hands and kicks which tend to come quick, having finished three of seven UFC wins via KO/TKO.
However, he’s lower output, landing 3.3 SLpM at 49%. So, his style leads to less volume, but it isn’t as much of a knock on him as it is for other fighters.
Contrary to popular belief, he’s outlanded seven of his 11 UFC opponents because he’s only eating 2.9 SApM at 63%.
Despite generally suppressing volume well, he has gotten tagged a bit more in recent years with some explosive shots, and more recently conceded an 86 SS performance against Dalby.
However, he was winning the 1st round there before he got caught with a head kick and the distance strikes in that fight were very close. Additionally, in his KO loss to Li, that was a competitive fight prior to the finish.
But he’s also coming off getting absolutely nuked by Randy Brown in his last loss.
Overall, despite Salikhov slowing down in his elder years with faltering durability, he’s still a really tricky guy to fight on the feet. He can slow fights down to his pace where opponents don’t want to let him get into a rhythm or he will pick at them or catch them.
How it plays out: On paper, Song has better volume but it’s not something I’d look much into in this matchup. As noted, both are traditionally slower paced fighters and in that fight dynamic, I’d have to favor Salikhov. He’s much better defensively exchange to exchange and he’s not a guy opponents can just run at. As noted though, Song hits hard and I don’t really trust the chin of Salikhov at 40 years old – conversely, I don’t really trust the chin of Song either so I side with the more technical striker in Salikhov.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Song’s footage on the ground is somewhat limited by being a base striker and not a particularly willing wrestler, only landing 0.4 TDs per 15 minutes at 33% — he’s only landed TDs in two of his 10 UFC fights for additional context.
He does have eight pro wins via submission, but they were against a low level of competition pre-UFC.
He just hasn’t shown any upside on the floor within the UFC with the exception of taking Garry down a couple times, but that was also due to him being hurt and he couldn’t establish any meaningful control – as noted, that was a situation where he shouldn’t have wrestled.
But the one fight I always touch on with him was against Derrick Krantz (regional journeyman), where he was taken down three times and controlled for 5+ minutes.
He was able to reverse some positions but both guys death gassed in the fight and Krantz lost position in the 3rd round which lost him the fight. But if Krantz had any sort of gas tank in that fight, he would have beaten Song via wrestling 29-28 on the cards.
It was also the grinding component from Krantz that really taxed the cardio of Song.
Aldana and Potter both took him down, but he was able to pop up quickly in those instances. Jousset and Glenn also got him down, but both didn’t do much there.
He does rep 72% TDD which is a respectable mark and he’s never been submitted in 30 pro fights.
Overall, only 15% of his UFC fight time has been spent grappling for or against so in a vacuum, you can’t anticipate the ground to play a large role in his fights.
Salikhov has wrestled a bit more in some recent fights but he’s traditionally not a volume wrestler, landing 1.1 TDs per 15 minutes at 33%.
When he decides to pursue, it’s usually either to break pressure or because he’s hurt. So, he has capable entries but has struggled with ground control and hasn’t posed a submission threat.
Defensively, he stuffs at 71% which is respectable, but he also hasn’t faced a ton of TDAs over his UFC career.
But he was outwrestled and eventually submitted in his first UFC by Alex Garica. That was also his debut though and I feel his TDD/defensive grappling has leveled up since that fight.
However, we did see Dalby find a higher degree of ground success in the back half of their fight – Salikhov did show off his submission defense there though.
Ponzinibbio also found some success on him in the 3rd round of his last fight.
Overall, only 19% of Salikhov’s fight time has been spent grappling for or against so you can largely anticipate the majority of his fights to be striking but there’s been pros and cons for him.
How it plays out: Given the historics of both, we should see a striking affair here and assessing who has the higher ground ceiling is difficult – probably a bit more with Song but it’s hard to say.
If this fight was 3-4 years ago, I’d have a more passionate opinion towards Salikhov because I think it’s a decent matchup for him. But as noted, he is 40 years old and a regressing fighter despite a respectable win over Ponz last time out (Ponz is also washed in fairness). I’m still picking him to win though as I’ve just never been a Song guy and Salikhov would be Song’s best win to date.
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On DraftKings, this is a really ugly fight that is entirely dependent on an early KO, which I never love.
I actually want to lean toward the dog here on DK though in Song, who is priced at 7.7k. It’s not a strong lean by any stretch, but Salikhov is old for a UFC fighter and he’s been KOd in two of his past three losses. Song isn’t good, but he hits hard, and I think there’s some narrative based KO upside at least.
Yes, Salikhov is definitely more technical than Song and better defensively. He’s also super low volume. There’s simply no reason to be confident at all here.
However, I do think Song carries KO upside. He’s only +325 to win ITD and shouldn’t be too popular. I don’t necessarily like him more than the tier below him, but I will consider secondary exposure to Song on this slate. It’s just a spot where I’d prefer he not beat him, so coming in near the field or a touch over makes some sense.
Salikhov is priced at 8.5k and is fully dependent on an early KO as well.
In 11 UFC fights, he’s achieved that result once, which came via a 104 point score back in 2019. Otherwise, his wins have scored 91, 82, 80, 71, 53, and 46, which is very poor.
With that said, it’s very difficult to make a sizable investment here, especially as Salikhov is likely trending in the wrong direction.
He’s still +185 to win ITD though, and Song can be hurt. There’s some KO upside in Salikhov’s profile, and it could come early. I assume he’ll be contrarian this week and if that’s the case, I don’t mind sprinkling him in.
But he obviously has major bust risk as well, and you’re just relying on one flashy moment early for him to put Song away. I don’t hate it from a contrarian sense at 8.5k in a tricky range, but I’ll likely be light on Salikhov overall.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Song by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Wang Cong vs. Gabriella Fernandes
Fight Odds: Cong -903, Fernandes +590
Odds to Finish: +115
DraftKings Salaries: Cong 9.6k, Fernandes 6.6k
Weight Class: 125
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
People seem to be very excited for the return of Cong Wang after she knocked Victoria Leonardo dead in her UFC debut in the very first round.
Wang is a bit of a blue chip prospect. Wang is 32 years old and 6-0 professionally. She comes from a deep boxing and kickboxing pedigree and actually has a kickboxing win over Valentina Shevchenko in 2015. Kickboxing is her base and what she thrives at, and she has generally won her MMA fights by outstriking her opponents.
Her striking does look good. She has a good jab and good low kicks and seems very defensively sound. She manages range well and can fight three rounds in her sleep. She didn’t look to have a ton of one punch power, but she did just sleep Leonardo. Leonardo is terrible though with no durability. I generally think if Wang wins by knockout, it will more so come from accumulation or a skill discrepancy more than anything.
Wang did fight Wu Yanan, a former low tier UFC fighter, early this year and dominated her as well. She just outstruck her for 15 minutes. Yanan isn’t good, but Wang absolutely dominated her and it was a good performance for the test at hand. I do think Wang is UFC level and will win striking fights in the UFC.
Overall, Wang looks like a good prospect. She can strike for 15 minutes and is very technical as a kickboxer, and she looks to understand basic grappling techniques enough to keep fights standing. I am looking forward to seeing her fight more in the UFC.
Wang will be taking on Gabriella Fernandes who is 1-2 in the UFC. Fernandes has had three UFC fights against Jasmine Jasudavicius, Tereza Bleda, and Carli Judice. She was taken down three and four times against Jasmine and Bleda, and was basically held down for the entire fights. I was extremely skeptical of Fernandes’ TDD and defensive wrestling before her UFC debut and bet against Fernandes in both of those fights, so I was not surprised by those outcomes. Her tdd is bad and she will continue to get outgrappled in the UFC.
Fernandes is 9-3 professionally, mostly beating awful competition. Fernandes is a striker. She is pretty physical and a decent athlete. She can land decently hard shots. Standing out of the southpaw stance, she always makes use of her rear kick, usually throwing it to the body. She has decent hands as well. She can use range control and can strike going forward and backward.
Although Fernandes is a competent striker, I don’t think she is a world beater either. In her last fight against Judice, she was able to strike where she is more comfortable. She won a very close decision but lost the significant strike battle 169-119. Fernandes landed the more impactful strikes early but conceded more volume throughout. The fight could have gone either way. It showed me that Fernandes can basically win some competitive striking fights at this level. However, her defense didn’t look great.
Basically, I think Fernandes can probably win some striking fights in the UFC, but she will be outgrappled badly in other matchups. That is about it. Her game is pretty easy to break down.
As far as this matchup goes, I actually think Wang is a better grappler and if anyone has grappling success, it will probably be her.
I do think these two will strike though. They both are strikers at their core and I imagine that is what they are going to do.
I have to favor Wang pretty heavily here. She is so much more experienced as a striker and just looks so much more sound defensively. Wang also looks faster. My guess is Wang just kind of picks Fernandes apart and wins clean. The fact that Fernandes conceded 169 significant strikes to Judice is just hard for me to overlook. Wang should be able to land easily here. I also think Wang has superior cardio.
I do think Fernandes is decently tough though and will try very hard, so perhaps she survives. I just don’t see Fernandes winning this fight though, and I would honestly be shocked if she did. Perhaps Fernandes can strike competitively at times or maybe land a big shot? However, I doubt it and Wang should win this fight.
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On DraftKings, I think it’s going to be difficult to pay up for Wang at 9.6k.
She’s coming off a very strong 104-point score, but that came with a quick knockout against an opponent who is very obviously not UFC level. Fernandes has issues, but she’s a pretty decent striker and should give Wang a much better test.
A large part of me just wants to fade Wang outright. She isn’t the best volume striker and in a decision, I don’t see how Wang pays off this price. Even landing something crazy like 140 significant strikes would only yield 86 DK points in a decision. And Wang is only +130 to win ITD.
My primary hesitation is actually on the grappling side. Wang was able to land a takedown in her Road to UFC fight and pick up a first-round submission win. I don’t think that’s the most likely outcome here, but Fernandes is bad on the ground, and so it’s possible Wang could want to showcase her grappling.
It at least gives her an additional path to win, and to score, and theoretically a higher ceiling than if she was purely to strike.
Overall, it’s still a difficult price for me to pay. The fight is -145 to go the distance and it honestly could be competitive at times. Wang most likely needs a quick KO which is possible, but not super likely. And then you still have to wonder whether her top end ceiling (104ish) is going to be a stand out in this range.
I most likely won’t be able to afford Wang much on this slate. She’s viable in all formats but is a bit more geared toward safety. If you have the salary to pay up, I’d consider mixing her in, but I do prefer the ceilings of the majority of the 9k range over her.
Fernandes at 6.6k is in play as a floor punt.
She did just land 119 sig. strikes and multiple takedowns in her last decision win. Despite being at a technical disadvantage, that is enough volume to make rounds competitive, and I don’t think Fernandes is bad on the feet.
I won’t project her for that much volume in this matchup but again, the fight is -145 to go the distance, so Fernandes landing 80 sig. strikes in a loss seems reasonable. That’s still only a score of 30ish DK points, which won’t be great for tournaments, but it’s not the worst score for a pure floor.
Fernandes is +900 to win ITD, with little grappling equity, and she’s a huge dog on the slate overall. There are many other dogs with win equity so I would rather prioritize them with a limited number of lineups.
If all dogs lose, it wouldn’t be the craziest outcome for Fernandes’ floor to beat out most others in this range, but she simply won’t be a priority given the matchup.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Wang by Decision (Confidence=Medium)
Volkan Oezdemir vs. Carlos Ulberg
Fight Odds: Ulberg -240, Oezdemir +200
Odds to Finish: -190
DraftKings Salaries: Ulberg 8.9k, Oezdemir 7.3k
Weight Class: 205
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
Carlos Ulberg is about to get a real test here in Volkan Oezdemir. This fight will show if Ulberg is a serious contender and potential threat for the UFC title.
Ulberg is 10-1 professionally, fighting out of New Zealand and the City Kickboxing team. He comes from a kickboxing background and you can see it in his game. He is now 6-1 in the UFC with his one loss coming to Kennedy Nzechukwu. Ulberg was off to a big lead in that fight but slowed down and eventually got finished.
UIberg thrives with his kickboxing. He is a big, strong and athletic guy, and can control range and land point scoring kicks and punches. He has a very good jab. He also has power and has won by first round knockout in four of his last five wins.
Ulberg has also had some occasional success grappling to safety in fights and lands 0.95 takedowns per 15 minutes. He defends takedowns at 75 percent. I don’t trust his actual technical wrestling and more so think he can just outmuscle lesser athletic fighters and win top position. Good wrestlers could probably beat him. However, he knows some basic techniques.
I do have some concerns with Ulberg though. He has generally won by early KO in the UFC. He gassed in an extended fight against Kennedy and was knocked out. Since then, he has managed his energy much more efficiently in the two extended fights that he has been in against Da Woon Jung and Fabio Cherant. He just looked to control range and minimize engagements and land on his terms.
However, he conceded a lot of leg kicks vs Jung who is not even that good and he did look to slow down at times and disliked the pressure on the feet. I absolutely think Ulberg can still lose to pressure strikers who push a pace and bother him. He just looks like he doesn’t like to be hit.
Ulberg will be taking on UFC veteran Volkan Oezdemir who is coming off back to back finishes. Oezdemir is mostly a striker. He lands 4.79 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.96 in return. He defends strikes at 55 percent which is good but I do consider him a bit hittable.
I consider Oezdemir a competent and aggressive pressure striker. He can pressure opponents and land in combination. He also has decent low kicks as well which was the main difference maker in his decision win against Aleksandar Rakic. Oezdemir also has some power on the feet and has won by knockout four times in the UFC.
I still have concerns with Oezdemir though. I mean, even Paul Craig was wobbling him a bit and Krylov rocked him too. He just looks a little vulnerable on the feet at times and was knocked out by Jiri Prochazka, which gives me a bit of pause. He did get some nice recent wins over Bogdan Guskov and Johnny Walker though and the losses of Oezdemir have legitimately come to the best fighters in this weight class.
Oezdemir also has some decent first layer TDD. He has a decent sprawl and defends takedowns at a solid 80 percent. I still worry about Oezdemir once he is actually grounded though. He has been finished on the mat against Daniel Cormier and Anthony Smith. Krylov also had a lot of success on the ground against him. Oezdemir has also shown cardio issues in the past. However, I do think his cardio has improved.
As far as this matchup goes, I think both guys present problems for one another. I absolutely think Ulberg can knock out Oezdemir early. Oezdemir has been hurt many times and UIberg is very dangerous especially early. That KO for Ulberg very well may happen.
However, I have some real concerns for Ulberg in this matchup after taping. I was pretty confident I was going to pick Ulberg before I taped but once I taped, I think this is a way more dangerous fight for him than I realized.
I really think the leg kicks and pressure of Oezdemir could give Ulberg issues. We have seen Ulberg tire before and the pace and leg kicks of Oezdemir could really compromise Ulberg. I really think if this fight gets past a round, Oezdemir will bother Ulberg and have a lot of success moving forward, landing leg kicks, and landing power punches. It may honestly result in a knockout for Oezdemir.
I really don’t think UIberg likes to be hit and I have never really seen him fight through adversity, and Oezdemir is BY FAR the best pressure striker that Ulberg has faced. Oezdemir could maybe even get top position on a tired Ulberg.
The issue with Oezdemir is that to win this fight he needs to pressure and put himself into danger. That could easily result in Oezdemir getting knocked out early. However, Oezdemir has big power too so even Oezdemir knocking out Ulberg early is not out of the question.
This is a tough one. I really expect Ulberg to have early success but I do expect Oezdemir to have success if this fight extends. I am going to go with Oezdemir here as I really don’t think Ulberg has beaten any experienced pressure strikers or leg kickers yet in the UFC. The paths to victory for Ulberg are still there though and calling random knockouts are tough to call so this could go either way.
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On DraftKings, I expect Ulberg to be a pretty popular target at 8.9k given his recent run of success.
He’s scored 128, 97, 105, 106 and 106 in his last five fights, and is now -240 to win with a -110 ITD line. Priced in the 8k range, he should draw a lot of attention, though I suppose being directly below Petr Yan could move some ownership away from him.
I have mixed feelings. On one hand, I like Ulberg and I think he’s a pretty quality kickboxer. It’s not the easiest matchup in the world, but Ulberg is dangerous and will have early finishing equity.
At 8.9k, given the metrics, I have no problems targeting him.
On the other hand, he’s going to be very boom or bust. He isn’t likely to grapple and striking volume won’t particularly matter. He needs an early finish, and there is just a lot of variance in this division.
If he’s going to be chalky, it’s not the worst spot to be underweight. Fighters in the mid 8k range may rate out worse but still have KO upside, and I think fighters in the mid 9k range have finishing equity too. Hearing Tim’s analysis of the matchup gives me some pause as well, as perhaps Oezdemir could present more problems than the betting line is indicating.
Overall, I expect I’ll have a fair share of exposure to Ulberg because he’s priced well and is easy to fit into lineups. And he has finishing equity. But I’m a little worried about him being chalk and his boom or bust nature, and with both in mind, perhaps I’ll look to pivot away a bit more than the field.
Oezdemir at 7.3k isn’t fully on my radar, but he has some viability in a potentially high-variance striking matchup.
The biggest benefit may be that he’ll carry leverage against Ulberg. Oezdemir is a legit finisher himself and is coming off 125 and 120 point scores, which should mean he’ll carry a decent ownership floor.
I’m not sure he’ll be chalky though. He’s priced between Figgy and Ricci who could be two of the most popular dogs on the slate.
I don’t love Oezdemir here as he shouldn’t land much volume, shouldn’t really grapple, and is fighting a better kickboxer. Without an early KO, I doubt Oezdemir can find a ceiling. He’s only +375 to win ITD.
Considering the price and leverage, he’s a viable secondary target. I won’t be heavily exposed due to the matchup and boom or bust nature, but he’s cheap enough to warrant low-end consideration.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Ulberg by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Zhang Mingyang vs. Ozzy Diaz
Fight Odds: Mingyang -338, Diaz +270
Odds to Finish: -600
DraftKings Salaries: Mingyang 9.1k, Diaz 7.1k
Weight Class: 205
We should have a banger here in the light heavyweight division between home country favorite Zhang Mingyang and newcomer Ozzy Diaz.
Zhang is 17-6 professionally at age 26, and he’s earned 11 wins by TKO and 6 by submission. If you’re keeping count, that means he’s never won by decision.
He’s also only lost once by decision, but he’s been KOd three times and submitted twice.
Zhang is the top LHW prospect out of China and I think he’s a decent athlete and competitor, but it’s difficult to believe he’ll amount to much more than a kill or be killed type at the UFC level.
He’s been fighting as a pro since 2014, and he’s obviously accrued a lot of experience in that time, with the bulk of his losses coming early in his career. He hasn’t lost since 2019.
But in that time, he was finished quickly on several occasions. Askar Mozharov actually knocked him out in round one in 2018.
Zhang is now on a 10-fight win streak, with all 10 of his wins having ended in round one lol. Most of them have come against horrible competition on the Chinese regional scene too.
However, he did make his UFC debut against Brendson Ribeiro, and was able to brutally knock him out in the first round as well, after a few fun early exchanges.
He also fought in Road to the UFC and won by KO in round one against Tokkos, where Zhang was actually the +450 dog.
Overall, I think his skills are decent. Zhang is an adequate boxer I would say. He moves well and carries some speed in his feet and in his hands.
You could argue he’s primarily a grappler though. Most of his TKO wins have come from ground-and-pound, and I would say that’s his best attribute. I saw some of his early fights where Zhang landed a quick takedown and pounded out his opponent, and I felt like those takedowns could translate to a higher level of competition.
But it’s just tough to say for sure. It’s impossible to trust him outside of round one, but he doesn’t necessarily profile as the type who would be exhausted after a few minutes. I haven’t seen him exhausted really, just knocked out cold.
Zhang was also training last year in Vegas with Sean Strickland and Magomed Ankalaev, which I like. Ultimately, he’s a young, kill or be killed fighter and that should be the expectation for now.
Ozzy Diaz will be making his UFC debut with a 9-2 pro record at age 33, earning seven wins by knockout and two by submission.
Both of his losses have come by knockout, including to Joe Pyfer on the Contender Series in 2022. He also fought eight times as an amateur, won six of them inside the distance, and was knocked out once and submitted once.
In total, he’s simply been another kill or be killed type, which should make this matchup really fun.
Diaz is a former LFA middleweight champion though he recently moved up to light heavyweight, where this bout will take place. He looks noticeably less skinny at LHW than he did at MW, which is potentially a positive thing, and he’ll actually be a few inches taller and longer than Mingyang.
Mostly, I consider Diaz to be a decent boxer, coming from the Kings MMA camp. He has fast hands, and he’s fairly technical.
He likes to walk forward, throw the jab, and he’s willing to brawl a bit. His power has obviously translated very well as he’s been able to hurt most of his opponents, and I expect that can continue at the UFC level.
I wouldn’t say Diaz is the best athlete, but I don’t have too many complaints about him. Even as being a kill or be killed type, his cardio has seemed totally fine when fights have extended into the second round.
His wrestling is probably a weakness. He was taken down and controlled by Pyfer on DWCS, and I’ve seen him taken down in recent regional fights as well, but he will find a way to survive and get back to his feet.
He will kick as well, but mostly to the legs and I don’t see him being a major threat with any other weapons than his hands.
I don’t view Diaz as a fantastic prospect by any stretch of the imagination, but he’s a fine fighter and will likely be reliant on early finishes. He’s fought a decent level of competition and is coming off a win over an ex-UFC fighter in Bevon Lewis.
Despite being quite high on Mingyang and backing him heavily in his UFC debut, my gut says this line is too wide.
There’s a realistic chance that this fight should be lined much closer to a pick’em, as we might just get an early brawl where both fighters have been knocked out on several occasions.
I consider Mingyang to be the better athlete, and he’s definitely the better wrestler, but he may not wrestle. I’d actually guess he just tries to box to start. In that instance, I don’t see why Diaz could box competitively with him, and hurt him.
Mingyang has been knocked out enough times where there is just too much variance baked into the matchup for me to trust him. And I’m really not certain how he’ll fare in an extended fight, where I actually think Diaz could be OK.
My guess is that someone gets hurt early though. Both fighters are very willing to engage, and both are dangerous. Neither has incredible durability. Mingyang fighting at home may help him in terms of traveling, but in the Octagon, I don’t think that will play any relevance.
I suppose it’s fine to lean toward Mingyang overall as the younger, improving prospect at home with a grappling base as well, but I’m not certain that even if Mingyang gets on top, he can easily finish the fight. Ultimately, I expect this fight ends early. I think Diaz is very live to hurt Mingyang but it should be one of the more fun fights for as long as it lasts.
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On DraftKings, I’d like this fight to be a priority of mine and I wouldn’t be surprised if it was a priority for the public as well. However it is more challenging to pay up to this price than I would have previously expected.
Part of the reason why is because Yan is priced at 9k, and Ulberg is priced at 8.9k, and both should rate out very well and draw a lot of attention. Without many strong, cheap underdogs and obvious values, it’s simply tough to consistently pay up this high and choose Mingyang over those other names.
Mingyang is priced at 9.1k, and you could still reasonably consider him one of the top overall targets on the entire slate. That is NOT in terms of safety, but as mentioned above, he’s won each of his last 10 wins in the first-round, so there is clear upside within his profile.
Coming off a first-round KO that scored 107, and now lined at -210 to win ITD, Zhang feels like a great upside target. Plus, he’s still cheaper than some other targets in this range who arguably have less upside.
This could definitely make him popular, and I think most will just look to the fact that Diaz was KOd by Pyfer on DWCS as a reason to back Mingyang. There’s more context needed, but ultimately, Mingyang has clearly early KO upside.
I would like moderate exposure to him on this slate, though spreading out to fighters nearby like Yan and Ulberg, among others, is probably a smart strategy. I would also expect that due to pricing challenges, I end up closer to the field on Mingyang, rather than extremely overweight.
Diaz at 7.1k feels like a fantastic tournament target to me with the added leverage he’ll carry against a popular Mingyang.
He too has never been to a decision, and I think the bulk of his win condition is rooted in an early KO.
He is only +300 to win ITD which isn’t bad for this price, and we know Mingyang can be hurt and knocked out. He’ll get some love publicly for that alone, but Figueiredo is priced right above Diaz and he will suck out a lot of ownership in this range I would imagine.
You don’t have to be extremely overweight to Diaz, but you should have exposure to him with any decent sized tournament portfolio. And I think being overweight to a degree is potentially smart.
As with all fights like this, it’s worth mentioning that there is also real bust potential if it happens to extend. That’s not an extremely likely outcome, but it’s always a possibility, so preparing for the worst and fading with a small percentage makes sense too.
Still, despite the obvious variance in a fight like this, it makes sense to target given the high likelihood for it to end inside the distance, and a -260 line to end Under 1.5 rounds.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Mingyang by TKO, RD 1 (Confidence=Low)
UNDERCARD
Baergeng Jieleyisi vs. SuYoung You
Fight Odds: You -150, Baergeng +122
Odds to Finish: +145
DraftKings Salaries: You 8.3k, Baergeng 7.9k
Weight Class: 135
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
I am actually excited for this matchup between Sin Young You and Baergeng Jieleyisi. I say that mostly because I think You looks like a solid fighter and I am excited to see how he looks this weekend. This will be the final of the 135 lb. Road to UFC Championship.
You is a Korean fighter who is 13-3 professionally. His losses have come to good competition and he has a few solid wins as well. He is 28 years old.
You comes from a grappling background and is a BJJ black belt. You can see the grappling in his game, and I consider him a solid wrestler, capable of landing a ton of takedowns in a fight. In his two Road to UFC fights, he landed four and eight takedowns.
His takedowns are legitimately good and diverse. He has throws in his game, a good double leg, and a good snatch single. I actually think his takedowns are like American / Russian good and not just Asian good. He also has fantastic tdd and a great get up game. Not many people are going to take and hold You down even at the UFC level. He is generally going to win the positional battle in his fights.
You had trouble controlling his last opponent where he landed eight takedowns, but that guy was a credentialed wrestler who had actually landed 16 takedowns of his own in his previous fight.
I have seen You control many opponents. I consider his top game pretty good, and he is a capable submission grappler and can advance position and ride position. He can also lock in occasional body triangles. He has five submission wins in his career and has never been submitted. He can also wrestle for a hard three rounds and I consider his cardio a strength. He has fought into the 4th and 5th rounds multiple times.
You’s weakness is probably his striking. He isn’t bad there and he is functional. He has an okay jab, occasional leg kicks. However, he is a bit short and compact and a little limited as a striker in general. I do think he is very tough though and a solid athlete. He can likely outbox underdeveloped strikers. He isn’t bad on the feet or anything but I don’t think he will thrive at the UFC level with it.
Overall, I think You looks like a solid fighter. His wrestling is good and he should be able to beat average to below-average grapplers with it. He probably can’t dominate good wrestlers though. He also seems tough with good cardio and can go through the motions on the feet. I am pretty confident that he has a place in the UFC.
You will be taking on Chinese fighter Baergeng Jieleyisi who is 19-5 professionally and also 28 years old. He has had three Road to UFC fights. He lost his first one in 2023 against Shuya Kamikubo where he was taken down a few times and controlled for about seven minutes. FYI, fightmetric was not updated for the takedowns that Jieleyisi surrendered in that fight and I have seen lazy handicappers on podcasts mention that fight was a low volume striking fight, probably because they didn’t actually watch the fight and they just looked at Fightmetric and didn’t see any takedowns surrendered. Jieleyisi then won his most recent two Road to UFC fights by outgrappling his opponents.
I think Jieleyisi looks okay. He is best as a grappler. I consider his takedowns okay. He can take people down and threaten on the mat a bit and control them. I do consider him a competent grappler. He isn’t bad.
Jieleyisi has nine submission wins in his career. However, seven of his submission wins have come against guys with 0-0 or 0-1 records. He looks okay as a grappler, but I don’t think he is actually all that dangerous as a submission grappler and his record is clearly padded. He has also been submitted twice himself. He has generally lost fights against anyone with a legitimate record or double digit wins so I do question his record a bit in general and quality of competition.
Furthermore, I have seen Jieleyisi taken down and controlled and guys have even passed his guard. His TDD isn’t bad and he can scramble up at times, but it can certainly be exploited and has been in regional losses and even in the road to UFC a bit. I have seen him held on his back a little too long and body triangled as well. His cardio looks decent but he did slow down a bit against Kamikubo when he was getting taken down.
On the feet, I don’t think he is great but he has some decent leg kicks. He can go through the motions a bit and seems tough, but I don’t consider him a strong striker or anything.
As far as this matchup goes, I don’t think Jieleyisi is bad or anything but I just don’t see where he clearly wins this fight. I think if anyone has grappling upside it is certainly You. I would be legitimately surprised if Jieleyisi could take and hold down You. That will probably discourage Jieleyisi as well as takedowns are his primary and usual path to victory.
On the other hand, I could see You legitimately dominating this fight with grappling. I absolutely think You can take Jieleyisi down, especially if You wrestles consistently. I could see Jieleyisi stopping occasional takedowns or working up at times. However, I really think You is a better wrestler and grappler and probably has a cardio advantage as well. You honestly has sneaky finishing upside on the mat as well. You has submitted and finished some decent guys and we have seen Jieleyisi finished on the mat a few times by lesser grapplers. You is definitely the best guy Jieleyisi has faced as well.
On the feet, I do think this is competitive. I don’t love either guy standing, but honestly I would probably favor You a bit standing. You seems a little more experienced as a striker and a little more comfortable with potentially better cardio. I also think You may be more physical and athletic than Jieleyisi. I do think Jieleyisi can compete in rounds standing though and him being the home country fighter with the crowd on his side could really help him get a decision.
However, I really think these guys will grapple. You generally grapples and so does Jieleyisi. I honestly hope Jieleyisi looks to grapple here because I think the more grappling exchanges occur, the more You will win the positional battle and run away with this fight.
It is hard to be bullet proof confident here as Jieleyisi has the home country edge and these are Asian fighters who are sometimes hard to measure as prospects. However, my eyes tell me that You has some advantages here and this is a decent betting spot. So I will be taking a position on You this weekend as I sneakily think he may have a big advantage as a wrestler.
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One small note: I think since this is a tournament final, we would get a deciding 4th round if it is scored a draw. I won’t be factoring that into projections but worth mentioning as it would increase the floor/ceiling of the winner.
On DraftKings, I am very interested in this matchup due to the wrestling pace that both are willing to push, though I am primarily looking to invest in You at 8.3k.
I actually think this is a great fight, and I don’t mind Baergeng as a prospect either. He’s a decent wrestler, with some solid striking, and a good jab. You looks like a legit problem though, and it’s difficult for me to see him getting outgrappled by many.
Of course I’m open to the idea of being wrong, but the control dynamic should lie pretty heavily in the favor of You. If Baergeng is able to land a takedown, I don’t think he can hold You down. If You lands a takedown, he could take the back or earn dominant top control.
He’s also shown the ability to wrestle in volume which I love. He’s averaging nearly 10 takedown attempts per 15 minutes, and landing them at 63 percent against quality competition.
In this matchup, my assumption is grappling will play a real factor one way or the other. If You wins, I think it’s very likely to come from takedowns, control, and potentially a submission. I am less sure about the finish, but it wouldn’t shock me, and You is +285 to win ITD.
You can argue that there are some ceiling concerns with a victory for You. Perhaps Baergeng is good enough to neutralize the wrestling early, and hold off a finish. I don’t think You will land a tremendous number of strikes.
But 4-6 takedowns are certainly in play, with 5+ minutes of control and a handful of strikes throughout. You would have scored in the high 90s in his most recent win, and the low 90s in his previous win.
I love his profile and at 8.3k, I’m willing to chase that kind of grappling upside on a slate where You may not be prioritized by the public. (Since Tim bet him the line is moving a bit and he possibly will rate out as a value play by fight time – something to keep an eye on as it could affect his ownership).
Baergeng at 7.9k rates out OK in the sense that he’ll likely need some grappling success to get his hand raised as well.
However, I don’t really want to back him in this spot. I don’t think he can land more than 1-2 takedowns and I highly doubt he can earn much control. His striking is decent but he shouldn’t land much volume, and he might just need to hurt You to win some competitive rounds.
A fight where Baergeng neutralizes the grappling and edges out the striking doesn’t seem like the best spot to reach a ceiling on DK. Baergeng is +285 to win ITD though which is a lot of respect for him to finish. I don’t think he has real finishing upside but who knows.
I wouldn’t say it’s a horrible plan if you wanted to use Baergeng as a secondary target, but I’m pretty confident You is a tough matchup overall that should limit his upside.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: You by Decision (Confidence=Medium)
Kiru Sahota vs. DongHun Choi
Fight Odds: Sahota -110, Choi -104
Odds to Finish: +140
DraftKings Salaries: Choi 8.4k, Sahota 7.8k
Weight Class: 125
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a flyweight tournament final here for the Road to UFC between DongHun Choi and Kiru Sahota. Unfortunately, I don’t rate these guys as serious prospects and don’t expect either to do much in the UFC.
Choi is a Korean fighter who is 8-0 professionally. He won his two Road to UFC fights by split decision in extremely competitive bouts. In his first bout against Jiniushiue, Choi outlanded him 58-48 in significant strikes and he landed one takedown as well. The fight was super close. In his next fight against Angad Bihst, Choi outlanded him 78-52 in significant strikes and landed a knockdown. Choi was taken down a couple of times but I thought he deserved the decision by landing the bigger shots in the last couple of rounds.
Like so many of these Road to UFC guys, Choi seems tough and is a bit of a scrapper with decent cardio, but he just doesn’t thrive anywhere. He comes from a Judo background where he holds a black belt. I still just don’t think his takedowns are all that great. He also doesn’t wrestle all that urgently. I have seen him in top position and his control looks competent. However, I have my doubts that he will easily take and hold down fighters at this level. He also has no submission wins in his career.
I do think Choi’s takedown defense is competent, but I do think good grapplers can have success against him as I have seen him get his back taken. His takedown defense seems fine though.
Although Choi has a Judo background, he actually is pretty willing to strike. I don’t totally love the way he responds to striking pressure. Bihst lit him up at times in the first round. His boxing defense is not great. Choi also just doesn’t have a ton of volume. However, he is a decent athlete, with occasional power, and I do think he is very tough. I think the best part of his striking game is his kicks and especially his leg kicks. He will land leg kicks out of both stances and score points.
Choi isn’t great, but he will fight hard for 15 minutes and can strike a little and grapple a little. However, he just isn’t great at anything and will struggle to clearly win rounds at this level.
Choi will be taking on Kiru Sahota. Sahota fights out of England though he is of Indian descent, and is 12-2 professionally.
Sahota is a very lengthy volume striker for this division, and he stands at 5’10” and will carry a five-inch height advantage against Choi, with an additional seven-inch reach advantage.
Sahota has a decent rear kick and okay straight punches. I think he does an okay job using his length. He doesn’t have huge power but can sting his opponents from time to time. He will also sometimes clinch and can land some knees on the inside. He seems reasonably tough.
I still have some worries about Sahota though. He is not a great athlete and he isn’t very physical either. He also doesn’t look like an urgent or physical wrestler and I highly doubt he can offensively wrestle against any of the flyweight division.
Sahota also has pretty weak takedown defense for a flyweight. He can get stuck on his back and controlled a bit. Good wrestlers will surely have their way with him. He does have a decent guard though and can scramble up at times. He is a BJJ purple belt and has never been submitted before. He can probably survive and work up to minimize grappling of weak opponents, but when he gets steps up in competition, he will probably get dominated on the mat.
As far as this matchup goes, I am going to go with Sahota as I like his length and volume a bit more on the feet. I still think the striking is competitive though and Choi could have success with some leg kicks and maybe the occasional power punch. However, I like Sahota’s length and volume more, and I do think he can land some effective shots with his straight punches.
I do think Choi could have some wrestling success though. The issue is Choi doesn’t wrestle urgently and his takedowns aren’t great. I do think if Choi actually gets on top of Sahota though, he could maybe ride out a little position. Still though, I doubt Choi can actually do much on the mat and I do think Sahota can defend enough tds and work up at times, so the winner of the striking will probably win this fight.
So I will go with Sahota as I like his striking a little more. This is still a very close fight though. I could see the striking being competitive, maybe a little grappling success for Choi and both guys seem tough so the fight will likely extend. So this has all the makings for a close fight.
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One small note: I think since this is a tournament final, we would get a deciding 4th round if it is scored a draw. I won’t be factoring that into projections but worth mentioning as it would increase the floor/ceiling of the winner.
On DraftKings, I’d probably prefer to avoid this fight if possible and I’m not sure it will be that fun.
Neither Choi nor Sahota are good prospects, and I’m actually pretty confident both will fail as they get steps up in competition.
Sahota is actually the value side though, as the fight is lined at a pick’em, with Sahota priced at 7.8k on DraftKings. I expect that will make him the more popular fighter of the two by default, especially if the line continues to trend in his direction.
I’m very hesitant to pull the trigger because I hate his fighting profile, but he’s going to have a massive height and length advantage in this matchup, and he should be the busier striker.
Choi very much profiles as someone who won’t do quite enough per minute and will lose decisions. I do think he has real power, and he can wrestle a bit, but he won’t be active enough and may just be dependent on the knockout.
So at distance, Sahota is going to be winning by default. Choi will need to find his way inside where he may have the advantage in the pocket with power. He can also kick the legs of Sahota.
Sahota at 7.8k is fine for value purposes, but I can’t say that I love him. I don’t think Choi will force a war, and may just stay too far out at range. Sahota could easily win this fight with zero takedowns and 80 significant strikes, and put up 70 DraftKings points in the process. He’s also +305 to win ITD which is poor.
Really, I think you’re betting on a knockout from Sahota for him to reach a ceiling, and while it’s possible because he should land, Choi seems very tough. It’s not really an outcome I want to bet on.
If Sahota is going to be chalky, I would definitely prefer to be underweight. Otherwise, he’s a viable secondary target for his win equity.
Choi may actually be a decent leverage target at 8.4k as I expect he will be very low owned given the betting line. And I think he has more pure knockout power of the two. I have seen Sahota rocked and dropped multiple times, so it really wouldn’t shock me if Choi was able to put him down.
Plus, he has some wrestling upside. Sahota’s takedown defense is absolutely awful and it would make sense for Choi to try and wrestle a little bit. If Choi wins, there’s at least some upside in his profile.
He’s also a major risk as he could land 40-60 strikes in a decision with 0-1 takedowns, and put up 60 points on DK. He’s only +305 to win ITD too which is poor.
Really, I consider Choi a pretty extreme boom or bust target, with the only additional benefit being potential leverage against Sahota. I don’t think it’s enough for me to target him with any real exposure, but with a large portfolio, I’d consider a sprinkle.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Sahota by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Shi Ming vs. Feng Xiaocan
Fight Odds: Xiaocan -407, Ming +315
Odds to Finish: +275
DraftKings Salaries: Xiaoan 9.2k, Ming 7k
Weight Class: 115
In our Road to UFC strawweight final, strong prospect Feng Longcan will take on Shi Ming.
Feng is 10-2 professionally at age 22, and she’s earned four wins by knockout and one by submission.
We have very limited tape available for Feng, but from what I’ve been able to watch, I think she is a pretty strong prospect for this division, especially when you factor in her age.
Two of the three fights I’ve been able to watch came against the same opponent, Miki Motono, who Feng beat on the regional scene by submission, and then beat again in the Road to UFC semifinals.
In both of those matchups, Motono was the much smaller opponent, and the one trying to take Feng to the mat. In some instances, Feng sprawled very well, and in others, she tipped over a bit too easily for my liking.
Once on her back, Feng largely chose to play guard in the first fight, where she was held down for minutes at a time. She is very tall and long for the division though, and you can see how that frame translates to a grappling game. Feng is a brown belt in jiu-jitsu, and her long limbs will help her retain guard and/or threaten for subs.
I don’t think she’s an incredible submission grappler or anything, but Feng was able to lock up a triangle choke from her back in round three of the first matchup against Motono. There was a mix of clinching and range striking in between, but nothing super important to note.
In the Road to UFC quarterfinal, Feng absolutely smashed Kiran Singh, taking her down immediately and beating her up for a stoppage. However, it’s very important to note that Singh should be fighting at 105 pounds, and was a clear full weight class smaller than Feng. Singh also looked like she did not belong in that tournament, skill wise.
And then in the semifinals against Motono, Feng gave up another three takedowns but did a better job scrambling back to her feet. Motono actually jumped on a guillotine choke at the very end of the third round that nearly finished Feng, but she survived.
In the interim, Feng had a lot of success at distance. She looks to be a semi-effective range striker. I don’t know if she has elite power, but she’s pretty diverse, and can jab and kick. I like her diversity of strikes and she looks to be a threat to a degree.
I’ll also note that Motono is very small too, so Feng had a considerable height and reach advantage. Against a similarly sized opponent I do not think she’ll fare as well.
Overall, I’d say that for a 22-year-old, Feng looks pretty legit. Her takedown defense is somewhat questionable, but her submission game should be enough to survive or even threaten, and she’s done well at working back up to her feet.
She’s a solid striker, but not a particularly high-volume one. She also looks like a good athlete overall. Feng is a bit green throughout but someone who should be able to compete and win at the UFC level now.
Ming is 16-5 professionally at age 30, and she’s earned six wins by submission and one win by knockout.
She’s more of a veteran, having been a pro since 2015 and is a lifelong martial artist. She comes from a catch wrestling background, though I honestly don’t consider her a real threat on the mat.
Like Feng, there is limited tape on Ming, but from what I’ve seen, she probably won’t be able to stick around at this level.
Her lack of wrestling may actually be her biggest issue, despite that being her bread and butter. I just do not see an effective takedown artist in any capacity, and her BJJ skill is more based on catch wrestling than jiu-jitsu, which is a red flag.
In her two Road to UFC fights, Ming went 0/4 on takedowns but was taken down on 5/10 attempts by her opponents, for reference.
Conversely, I actually think she’s a decent boxer, and apparently she’s got a black belt in taekwondo. She rocked her quarterfinal opponent with a head kick and nearly finished her, but tried to immediately jump on a choke and then failed to hold the position.
Then in round two, she was taken down and held down for the entire round. In round three, she seemed tired and only managed a few distance strikes, but that was enough.
In the semifinals, Ming was taken down another four times, but she was only controlled for three minutes which is a positive. She was able to get back to her feet with relative ease.
She was the superior distance striker in that fight, outlanding her opponent 66 to 53 and she got some clinch and control time as well.
I don’t feel great about Ming’s prospects. She’s small, though she’s compact. She actually has decent boxing technique and respectable power, but I don’t really see any consistency.
At best, I think she can edge out some rounds on the feet. With only one career KO in 21 fights, I don’t think she’s actually a dangerous knockout artist. Her wrestling and submission game is probably fine to get past a very low bar of competition, but clearly, as she takes steps up, she’s much more likely to be taken down and held down herself.
As far as this matchup, Feng is going to be five inches taller with a six-inch reach advantage. Although I think Ming could maybe compete in the pocket, I highly doubt she can get inside with any consistency.
Instead, I foresee Feng being able to beat her up a little bit at range. Feng will be the superior kicker and should have easy attacks at distance. She’ll be able to land when Ming tries to come inside as well.
I think Feng is likely the better athlete and grappler as well. I am not sure if she will care to try and wrestle, but if she does, Feng might be able to get takedowns. She could even take the back and hunt for a submission, though that’s probably a reach.
Perhaps Ming will try to wrestle but I do not think she is good enough to get Feng down with any consistency. I think Feng could even threaten her or submit her from the bottom, maybe.
The main case for Ming is if she can land takedowns, and just lay on top for minutes at a time. It’s not impossible but I don’t think it’s very likely. She can also have success boxing in the pocket but I see her volume being pretty limited here due to the size disparity.
I’m going to take Feng to win a comfortable decision, in a fight that could have a mix of striking/clinching/grappling. I even think she has finishing equity on the mat, but Feng isn’t super aggressive in pursuing that route so chances are we get a bit of an extended matchup.
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On DraftKings, this fight is going to rate out really poorly on paper and I expect it to mostly be ignored this week.
Feng is priced up at 9.2k which is a major problem. With the fight set at -350 to go the distance, Feng just won’t project well compared to anyone else in this range.
Yan, Ulberg, Zhang, Kavanagh and probably Cong will all attract more attention, so I expect Feng to be very low owned by default.
I understand why I won’t be prioritizing her myself. If the fight truly goes the distance, Feng won’t land tons of volume and she may not wrestle either. She’s only +350 to win ITD.
I am a little hesitant to write her off completely though. I don’t think very highly of Ming, and I do think pretty highly of Feng as a prospect. I wouldn’t rule out the chances of Feng completely wiping her out to be honest.
I’m not sure exactly how that would look, but I think an early submission is in play, potentially coming from Feng hurting her on the feet or taking her down. In that sense, I think Feng is a viable pivot/contrarian target.
I can’t really recommend it though because it’s mostly a gut feeling, and still not a super high percentage one. But just as one example, both Ulberg and Mingyang are completely dependent on quick finishes, and it’s possible that those fights happen to extend. I also don’t think Feng’s chances of winning ITD are much worse than Cong’s.
So if you want a contrarian option in this top end, I don’t mind Feng. It would only be a low percentage play, but she has a lot of advantages and is a sizable favorite to win. Especially with a submission grappling edge, there’s a path to upside.
I don’t expect you to jam her in, but I wouldn’t completely dismiss Feng either.
Ming at 7k I am more likely to dismiss.
She could win, I suppose, in a competitive kickboxing fight. Maybe Feng regresses and Ming can land some takedowns. I just think the size discrepancy is going to play a big role here and I don’t really believe in Ming’s talent.
Ming is only +700 to win ITD too which is obviously poor. There are plenty of fighters with upside below the mid-range, and I’d definitely rather prioritize them.
Perhaps you could talk me into a floor here with the fight projected to extend, but I still don’t know how much offense Ming is really going to produce. I’m more inclined to just avoid her with a limited portfolio personally, but a low-end sprinkle is OK.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Feng by Decision (Confidence=Medium-High)
Nyamjargal Tumendemberel vs. Carlos Hernandez
Fight Odds: Hernandez -185, Tumendemberel +158
Odds to Finish: +110
DraftKings Salaries: Hernandez 8.6k, Tumendemberel 7.6k
Weight Class: 125
If you’re not familiar with the name, let me introduce you to Nyamjargal Tumendemberel, who will be making his UFC debut against Carlos Hernandez this weekend.
Tumendemberel is 8-0 professionally at age 26, and despite being nicknamed “Art of Knockout”, he holds only two wins by TKO and five by submission.
Tumendemberel fights out of Mongolia, where he is a nomadic herder, and the majority of his fights have come from that regional scene which if I’m being honest, is about as low-level as it gets.
With that said, Tumendemberel fights at an insane pace. He is 10/10 aggressive to a fault, but he knows nothing else.
He will rush forward swinging wild, looping power shots and he’s been able to hurt several opponents immediately with that style. He is extremely dangerous in that sense alone.
However, he’s the type where he will swing and miss so badly he will almost knock himself over, so the technique is not fully there. It’s actually not there at all. He doesn’t really move his head and he is there to be countered. He will almost certainly be knocked out at some point.
Tumendemberel also has a background in Judo and Sambo, and that translates into a decent submission game.
By decent, I mean, he will jump on guillotine chokes. He will teleport himself onto the back of his opponent in scrambles, and he’ll chase random shit like kneebars. Again, he’s dangerous.
His pure wrestling is OK. He can and will attempt a lot of takedowns, but I really hate his control. I’ve seen him fall off the back on several occasions and I really think he’s reliant on these big moments, rather than any extended success.
To make matters worse, his takedown defense is non-existent. Even on the Mongolian regional scene, he would get taken down by most opponents.
He fought on Road to UFC and was taken down six times by a Muay Thai guy who cannot grapple either. Several of them came in round three when Tumendemberel was tired.
That’s another issue – good luck sustaining your cardio with that style. He actually did better than I thought and at the start of each round, he would throw a bunch of hail marys. But his defense just gets worse, he can’t defend takedowns and he gets stuck off his back.
I am certain Tumendemberel will get exposed at the UFC level. His defense is exceptionally bad and his level of competition has been exceptionally bad as well.
I do also think he can win fights via quick finishes. He can hurt people, and he can submit them if they’re not careful. He’s not a terrible athlete and has power.
I just cannot imagine him winning decisions with any consistency and I’m certain good wrestlers will beat him. He’ll honestly probably get finished by good opponents because he’ll get tired and won’t really know how to defend himself.
He’ll be very fun for as long as he’s here though.
Tumendemberel will be taking on Carlos Hernandez, who’s a divisional veteran of sorts but is only 2-3 in the UFC.
Hernandez isn’t a great fighter. He’s not the best athlete. He doesn’t carry much power in his strikes, so his finishing potential isn’t great. He’s not the best wrestler either.
I don’t love Hernandez as a talent and I think he will lose more often than he wins.
However, Hernandez’ level of competition has been superb. Starting on DWCS, he beat Daniel Barez, outlanding him 77-52 while getting taken down five times.
In his UFC debut, he beat Victor Altamirano by outlanding him 84 to 79 and outwrestling him 2-1. He also has a fantastic win against Denys Bondar who was highly thought of coming into the UFC, neutralizing his grappling and outstriking him 102-76.
More importantly, his three losses have come against Tatsuro Taira, Rei Tsuruya and Allan Nascimento.
Taira will probably be the champion of the division one day and is obviously a top-talent. Taira knocked Hernandez out in the second round.
Nascimento is a grappling specialist who was able to take Hernandez down early and sub him. And Tsuruya is a grappling phenom who Hernandez just lost to, but defended and scrambled well and nearly pulled off the win.
I think my main point here is that Taira, Nascimento and Tsuruya are so many levels above Tumendemberel as a grappler, it’s hard to quantify. That doesn’t mean Tumendemberel can’t jump on a neck early, he can, and he may try. But his control and scrambling ability does not compare in any fashion.
In Tumendemberel’s last fight, he hurt his opponent badly in the first 30 seconds, and then jumped on his back standing and put in the RNC. That stuff, he is capable of. But taking Hernandez down, holding him down, transitioning, and repeating is not something I see him being capable of.
If anything, Hernandez should win that wrestling battle. Hernandez isn’t a good wrestler but he lands 1.08 takedowns per 15 minutes. He took Bondar down twice, and he took Tsuruya down once. Simply attempting a takedown should be enough against Tumendemberel. He’s the type I feel like I could outwrestle.
I really wish Hernandez had a bit more wrestling in his profile because I would hammer him if he did. I do have some concerns he’s not quite good enough or physical enough to make Tumendemberel pay. But I think 0-5 takedowns are very much in play, depending on how often Hernandez chooses to attack that route.
And on top, Hernandez can control Tumendemberel probably. He may even be able to submit him.
The other dynamic which is potentially even more important, is that Hernandez can fight a very hard three rounds and land a fair number of strikes. He’s a decent volume boxer and that’s really the only place he’s had success in the UFC.
Hernandez currently lands 4.11 sig. strikes per minute, while absorbing 3.80 per minute. His defense doesn’t rate out great at 46 percent, and he’s been knocked out once. Those are mild concerns.
I just have to project Hernandez to outland Tumendemberel by a significant margin over 15 minutes. He will throw the jab and punches that land consistently. He should win this fight with that dynamic alone.
I am a bit worried that he lacks power though. I am a bit worried that his strikes won’t be impactful enough, and he’ll just get caught by a big shot anyways. That’s still the most likely to happen in the first couple of minutes, and the longer the the fight goes, the easier time Hernandez should have defending.
This is Hernandez’ fight to win. His lack of athleticism and finishing ability does make me nervous that he’ll have to survive an onslaught early, and he can be finished occasionally. Tumendemberel is dangerous but in a way that doesn’t really work at the UFC level, so I will likely be betting against him against anyone competent until I see new developments.
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On DraftKings, let’s start with the easier side which I think is Tumendemberel at 7.6k.
Despite all that I’ve said, I think he’s an obvious secondary target for his upside. If he wins, it very likely comes in round one. If not, it still probably comes ITD, and it almost certainly has to come with major damage, or many takedowns and ground success.
Tumendemberel is +250 to win ITD, and I would just be extremely fearful not to have exposure to him on this slate. For upside purposes, you could even prioritize him, and I am expecting him to be popular this week.
Based on my pure matchup analysis, I won’t go as far to say as I will prioritize personally. There are other viable underdogs, and honestly, he should lose. He won’t score many points per minute and I don’t think he will have much sustained wrestling success.
But for pure finishing upside, I think Tumendemberel is a very solid secondary target at 7.6k, and coming in near the field feels like the correct strategy.
Hernandez at 8.6k is trickier. I almost like him more as a bet than I do as a DK target but I think I will target him on DK as well anyways.
It’s just the defense of Tumendemberel. He can give up unlimited takedowns to those who try, and he probably will get knocked out at some point. For that reason, I want to be on Hernandez.
My concern is A) That Tumendemberel has some offensive surge early and that Hernandez won’t score a lot of points in the early going. An extended decision with a couple of takedowns could score 70-80, which isn’t ideal.
B) That Hernandez just isn’t the best finisher. He’s +285 to win ITD but he literally has zero pro knockouts, and his last sub win came in 2020. So we kind of have to project a decision, which circles back to 70-80 points in a win.
You don’t need to prioritize Hernandez for that reason, but he’s still a viable secondary target. I will likely be on him to a degree to get ahead of the field and ahead of the field in betting against Tumendemberel. I simply like the environment for his fights.
Perhaps this isn’t the perfect spot for upside, but at 8.6k, Hernandez is worth some consideration.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Hernandez by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Lone’er Kavanagh vs. Jose Ochoa
Fight Odds: Kavanagh -368, Ochoa +290
Odds to Finish: -140
DraftKings Salaries: Kavanagh 9.4k, Ochoa 6.8k
Weight Class: 125
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
I am super excited for the debut of Lone’er Kavanagh. I was really impressed with his tape. His opponent and fellow debutant Jose Ochoa actually looks promising too. So this should be a fun matchup and these guys are potentially fun additions to the flyweight roster.
Lone’er Kavanagh is 7-0 professionally and is 25 years old. He fights out of England and comes from the Nathanial Wood camp. He has a Chinese mom and an Irish dad so he does have a connection to China. He is also a five-time K1 kickboxing champion and has a lot of combat sports experience in general. He has fought most of his MMA career in Cage Warriors where he fought some solid competition and gained some good experience.
Kavanagh booked his ticket to the UFC by knocking out his opponent on the Contender Series early. His opponent was actually a promising prospect. However, Kavanagh landed an insanely fast left hook that knocked his opponent dead.
I honestly really like Kavanagh’s game and believe he is UFC ready and could probably compete with some top 15 flyweights now.
Kavanagh is probably best as a striker given his kickboxing background. He is extremely athletic and can switch stances effortlessly. He also has some very good power for a small man and consistently hurts his opponents.
Kavanagh controls range well and is extremely fast. He is quick with his in and out movement and can land a wide variety of strikes. He has a nasty left hook. He will also land kicks to the body and legs. He also seems tough. I have seen him dropped once but he recovered very well. I overall just think Kavanagh is a very solid striker with his athleticism, speed, and strike diversity.
Kavanagh also looks like a decent wrestler. I haven’t seen him fight any good grapplers or anything so I do think he is a bit untested. However, my eyes tell me that he is a competent grappler. He is capable of landing takedowns with his speed and drive in his shots. He can also ride out top position. He generally looks to wrestle to put a stamp on rounds or if he is in any danger on the feet. He is also a BJJ purple belt.
Kavanagh also looks like a pretty solid defensive wrestler too. I have seen him scramble well and defend takedowns. Again, he is a bit untested in general but I really think this guy is a pretty polished fighter already with no major holes. He is a good athlete, a good striker, he can wrestle, he can fight a hard three rounds, and he seems tough. I am looking forward to seeing what he does in the UFC.
Kavanagh will be taking on fellow debutant Jose Ochoa. Ochoa is a Peruvian fighter who is 7-0 professionally and 23 years old. He fought his last fight in LFA against an okay opponent and won by first round finish. However, most of his competition has come in crappy South America promotions. So it is hard to know how good he is and he has not been tested in many areas of his game.
However, I do like the raw footage I have seen of Ochoa. He likes to pressure strike. He likes his left kick out of the southpaw stance and will stalk his opponents. He does a pretty good job staying out of range. He is also dangerous on the inside with his knees. He also looks to have some power, especially on the inside. He has kind of just overwhelmed his opponents with power and pressure thus far. I honestly like what I see from him on the feet, but he has fought no one good so I don’t know how his defense will hold up or other areas of his game.
Ochoa has landed some takedowns here and there, but his top control doesn’t look strong and I doubt he can outwrestle decent flyweights in the UFC. I have seen him defend takedowns well and use front chokes to deter takedowns. He looks competent as a defensive grappler. However, again he hasn’t fought the best competition.
I think there is just a lack of sample size from Ochoa against decent competition. So it is hard to get a full read on him. I definitely think he looks dangerous and I like his pressure on the feet.
He is also very young and looks better than most 23 year old fighters, so he has a ton of time to develop. I don’t know how his cardio will be because he has never fought three rounds before. I am not totally sold on him as a grappler either, and I also just don’t know a ton about his striking defense.
As far as this matchup goes, it is hard to fully break this down because of the unknowns of Ochoa. However, I have to favor Kavanagh because I know Kavanagh basically doesn’t have any holes. Kavanagh can strike, he can wrestle, he has cardio, he is sound defensively and has fought decent competition. My guess is that Kavanagh will probably just be the more developed fighter at this point and he will probably find an area of the game that he has an advantage in.
I do think this could be a banger on the feet though. Kavanagh is super fast and dangerous. Ochoa looks very aggressive. So my guess is that Ochoa is going to come out and either try to hurt Kavanagh or just get hurt himself. So I think this has some sneaky early finishing upside.
I just think this is a tough debut for Ochoa. He basically looks like an aggressive striker and that is his primary gameplan. However, he is fighting a guy with a credentialed kickboxing background. So my guess is Kavanagh just survives the onslaught in general and just tests the defense of Ochoa. So I will pick Kavanagh just because he is a more proven and experienced fighter.
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On DraftKings, Kavanagh is priced up to 9.4k and I think that makes him a pretty limiting fantasy option.
While he does look like a legit prospect to me as well, I wouldn’t say he’s the most aggressive wrestler, nor is he some absurd volume striker. He’s just very explosive, and dangerous.
At this price tag, we’re going to need an early finish. While that outcome is fully possible, and Kavanagh is +130 to win ITD, I don’t know that he rates out better than Cong or Mingyang nearby, let alone Yan, Ulberg ect.
I also tend to shy away from circumstances where the opponent hasn’t shown durability issues. My guess is that Kavanagh can probably knock Ochoa out. He’s just a better kickboxer. But Ochoa has never lost and hasn’t really faced a lot of adversity. He very well could be a tough kid who can extend the fight.
So it’s really just the price tag that’s an issue. Perhaps there’s some sneaky grappling upside for Kavanagh too but my guess is he wants to stand and bag. He’ll be in play for early KO upside but I consider him more of a secondary target due to the boom or bust nature.
Ochoa at 6.8k doesn’t interest me a whole lot. I don’t think as highly of him.
He seems like a fine, competent kickboxer, but he doesn’t look super powerful and I doubt he has real KO upside. I also suspect his grappling game isn’t good.
And so I just see his game being limited here. He won’t land tons of strikes. He’ll be looking for one big moment probably, otherwise he might need slower paced, competitive rounds.
Ochoa is +365 to win ITD which isn’t horrible, but not something I’m dying to target. He shouldn’t be too popular and he might carry some leverage against Kavanagh, but it’s just not a great matchup.
Sprinkling him in with hopes that he’s being undervalued due to sample is OK, or pure variance of a KO. But I don’t love the play or the matchup and I’ll be very light on exposure to Ochoa.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Kavanagh by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium)
Xiao Long vs. Quang Le
Fight Odds: Long -138, Le +120
Odds to Finish: +140
DraftKings Salaries: Long 8.2k, Le 8k
Weight Class: 135
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a blue collar matchup here that should be a competitive scrap between Xiao Long and Quang Le.
Long is 26-9 professionally and fights out of China. He fought in the Road to UFC tournament and won his first two fights by close split and majority decisions. He then lost a split decision in the Road to UFC final against Chang Ho Le. So all three of his Road to UFC affiliated fights have been extremely competitive and close.
He actually was beaten on the Contender Series in 2021 as well in a mildly competitive fight against Cristian Quinonez.
The best way to describe Long is that he is a scrapper and tries very hard. He is tough with some decent cardio and will look to come forward and land punches on the inside, clinch, etc.
The issue with Long is that he just doesn’t thrive anywhere. His striking is not good but it is functional. He kind of just clinches on the inside and tries to land inside strikes and push people against the cage. I don’t think his offensive wrestling is great either. He has landed a couple of takedowns in a couple of fights, but I don’t think his takedowns are dynamic or that his top control is great either.
I do think Long is a good defensive wrestler though. He defends takedowns at 78 percent and scrambles up very well. I have seen him get his back taken here and there, but I generally think he will be a hard guy to take and hold down.
All of Long’s recent fights have just kind of been the same. He comes forward and clinches, and tries to pace his opponents and it kind of becomes a clinch fest with occasional strikes landing by each guy. Someone maybe lands a takedown here and there but doesn’t do a ton with it. Long is just not good enough in a particular area to run away with a fight. I do think the best quality of his game is that he is tough, has some cardio, and will try very hard and be aggressive at times.
Long will be taking on Quang Le who is coming off a loss to Chris Gutierrez in his UFC debut. Le took that fight on short notice and actually won a round with takedowns and control. However, he was outstruck 59-16 and dropped easy striking rounds to the more seasoned and technical Gutierrez.
Le is 8-1 professionally and fights out of Vietnam. He does have four losses in his amateur career though, with his most recent amateur loss coming in 2020. Seven of Le’s eight professional fights have come in LFA which is a solid regional promotion that is a good feeder to the UFC. However, none of his competition in LFA looked all that great.
I mostly consider Le a power striker who looks to land takedowns here and there. He is fairly technical with some decent speed and power. He can throw some good straight punches, hooks, and kicks. He has won by KO in his last two wins. I still don’t think he is a great striker though. He hadn’t been tested defensively at all coming into the UFC and Gutierrez showed that he has some work to do. All of Le’s striking success has come against bad competition. My guess is that he is okay on the feet with some power upside but nothing great.
I have seen Le held down and taken down a bit. I do not trust his defensive wrestling all that much but I have seen him scramble up as well. He does have a lot of submission wins. I feel like he is just submitting terrible competition though. Hit offensive wrestling does not look all that special to me either, and I am leaning against him having much wrestling and takedown success at this level. However, taking down Gutierrez was decent and I have seen him take the back and get body triangles.
Le kind of just looks like a guy who will maybe win some striking fights in the UFC mostly based on power. I am not particularly high on him as a prospect from what I have seen and he is already 32 years old so I doubt he will turn into anything all that good.
Like Long, I think Le is functional in most areas and seems tough but he doesn’t really thrive anywhere either. That is why I expect this to be a competitive fight.
I think both guys are very tough so this fight will probably be back and forth and extend. I think either guy could land a takedown here and there, but I don’t really think either guy has enough top control to dominate with top position. My guess is there will be more clinching and neutralization than anything. I do think Le has some back taking upside though.
On the feet, I think Le is more dangerous at range and has more one shot KO power. However, I sort of think Long is more aggressive and will force inside exchanges more often. I honestly don’t give either guy many advantages anywhere and I think this is a very close fight.
I almost picked Le here because I think he is a bit more powerful and has more knockdown and knockout upside. However, there is just a very good chance this fight extends and rounds are ultra competitive. That may benefit Long who is the Chinese fighter and will have the crowd on his side. Given the home crowd advantage and recent judging for hometown fighters, I am going to pick Long to win a very competitive decision. I think they will just trade back and forth, clinch a bit, maybe land a takedown or two each, but neither guy will really dominate either.
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On DraftKings, it’s tough to be too excited for this matchup, partially because it’s a bit difficult to get a great read on either fighter.
Long has fought 35 times as a pro but we only have footage of a few of them. I think he’s the more active fighter of the two, especially with his hands. He’s landed 109 and 78 significant strikes in two of his tracked fights, while Le just put up 16 sig. strikes in 15 minutes.
I also like the fact that Long has been to decision 19 times which shows his experience when fights extend.
I don’t know if he has many great paths to a ceiling here though. I don’t think he can wrestle in volume, and striking volume probably won’t matter. Unless he’s able to find a finish, I would guess that Long doesn’t reach the optimal. He’s priced at 8.2k and is +270 to win ITD.
The one sneaky piece of information I wanted to note is that he actually scored 62 in a close loss in his debut, that only came with 68 sig. strikes and two takedowns. How did this happen? Well, he was credited with more than six minutes of control time, which largely came in the clinch, and he was credited with an additional 67 non-sig. strikes as well.
The control + non-sig. strikes is another near 25 points accrued, which is a lot. I suppose that could be a predictive part of his game. Some of his previous tracked fights had similar scores, while others did not.
It’s just worth noting in the sense that Long may not have a great performance, he could win an ugly decision but if it is clinch based, he could rack up non-sig. strikes and enough control to carry him into the 90 point range.
I don’t completely hate Long at 8.2k for that reason alone, but he’s still best viewed as a differentiator. I highly doubt he’ll be popular on this slate and doesn’t project to have a ton of wrestling or finishing equity.
I probably won’t get to Long too often myself but I am picking him to win because I consider him a bit more active and consistent over three rounds. He’s an OK mix in but it still feels like a reach to call him a real secondary target.
Le to me, feels more dependent on big moments. Despite him winning a round against Gutierrez and landing multiple takedowns, I didn’t think he looked great. He couldn’t do anything on top and I just don’t see a real grappling threat there.
I feel like Long has faced better grapplers than Le, so although he could land a takedown or two, I doubt he can do a whole lot with them.
Le does carry power though, specifically with his kicks. He looks dangerous to me in that regard, and I suppose a knockout is possible. Quinonez was able to knock Long down on DWCS though Long immediately popped back up.
Le is priced at +350 to win ITD which isn’t very good for 8k, and it will be hard to make a real investment. I don’t hate it as an upside play as perhaps his power is real and Long can be hit, but I also don’t love Le’s activity and don’t expect him to land many strikes overall.
Again, I doubt Le will be too popular, so this is best viewed as a differentiator in the mid-range.
Really tough fight for me to call all things considered. I’m a bit worried about ignoring it outright, but there also aren’t many great reasons to make an investment other than the public likely shying away as well.
I don’t hate the idea of sprinkling them both in, but with a limited portfolio, this fight is low on the priority list for me.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Long by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Maheshate vs. Nikolas Motta
Fight Odds: Maheshate -194, Motta +165
Odds to Finish: -250
DraftKings Salaries: Maheshate 8.7k, Motta 7.5k
Weight Class: 155
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Maheshate is a Contender Series alum from the 2021 season who probably saved his job with a win back in April over Gabriel Benitez – he’s 2-2 in the UFC and 10-3 as a pro. Nikolas Motta’s a fellow Contender Series alum who was in a similar boat to Maheshate, where a big upset win over Tom Nolan back in January saved his roster spot – he’s 2-2 in the UFC and 14-5 as a pro.
The striking component:
Maheshate comes from a striking background and is a good sized 155er, standing 6’ tall with a 71” reach. Our sample on him is still relatively small but I’m starting to get a better gauge of his game.
Being that he’s a bigger guy at the weight, he primarily excels at range where he can dictate the exchanges of his fights. He’s got some good front kicks, knees, check hooks and straight rights. He’s also shown power components with four of his 10 pro wins coming via KO.
The primary issue I have with Maheshate is that he’s one of those guys who really needs to be in the driver’s seat to have overt amounts of success.
We saw him struggle with the pressure of Estremadura early on the Contender Series where he got hurt multiple times and dropped the 1st round – Estremadura just got tired after that and Maheshate more or less took over.
He then iced Steve Garcia early who just came at Maheshate too recklessly.
The distance exchanges with Rafa Garcia were competitive but he struggled with the blitzing nature of Garcia. That fight was kind of alarming from a striking perspective because Maheshate had a good size advantage and only went 23/138 at distance – he also got tired in that outing.
Against Borshchev, he got out-worked and struggled with the technicality and diversity of strikes where he got outlanded 69 to 29 at distance and was dropped three times.
Most recently, he had a really competitive striking fight with Benitez where he was outlanded 120 to 93 at distance but edged out a close decision – forward optics helped Maheshate out in earning the nod but realistically the fight could have gone either way.
Overall, I see some potential in Maheshate as a striker at just 24 years old. He just hasn’t put everything together yet and needs to fully harness how to use his tools with consistency.
I’m unsure of Motta’s official background but he works in a more mid-range/blitz boxing-based style. His output has been on the lower end through his last six fights but was a bit better back regionally.
Motta excels most off entry to where he can land lead hooks and/or follow up right hands. He’s not much of a kicker but will mix it in here and there.
His better attribute is his power, scoring KOs in 10 of his 14 pro wins – even in decision wins or some of his recent losses, he’s been able to tag his opponents with some good shots stunning them regardless of knockdowns.
We saw him catch both Miller and Torres prior to his KO losses in those bouts.
Outside of not being a high-volume striker, the biggest concern for Motta standing is that he’s been brutally KOd in four of his five losses.
In his defense, Miller’s power has translated a lot better in recent years and we know that Manuel Torres hits like a truck.
His fight with Ogden wasn’t a great look though as he really struggled to track Ogden down over the course of the fight and essentially just got jabbed and checked from the outside – he did stun Ogden in the 2nd round, but he only went 8/73 to the head.
Most recently, he effectively countered an overaggressive Nolan coming in who didn’t respect his power – Nolan learned the hard way.
Overall, Motta has raw KO power and decent boxing, but his lack of volume, defense and durability limit his overall ceiling in fights.
How it plays out: Both are base strikers but with clear issues in their respective striking games at the same time. Their metrics offensively and defensively at distance are terrible to be honest – Maheshate is only landing 27% of his distance strikes versus Motta at 31%. Maheshate’s only defending distance strikes at 54% versus Motta at 44%. I think Motta has more raw power but he’s also far more fragile. So, both guys are capable of knocking each other out but I favor Maheshate for the reasons of him being bigger/longer/more fluid and just far more consistent to throw strikes.
The wrestling/grappling component:
There isn’t much to say here offensively given that Maheshate is a base striker and he’s rarely wrestled.
He shot two TDs against Borshchev, but both were stuffed with relative ease – not the best of looks given Borshchev’s historic struggles with TDD. He has one win via submission, but it was back in 2019 in his 2nd fight pro fight which isn’t available online.
Defensively, there is a bit to say.
It was in his 1st pro loss against Goncharov where he got grinded out for the better part of 15 minutes. Then, Rafa Garcia went 6/11 on TDs, racking up six minutes of control time.
Maheshate was able to stuff early but it was when Garcia was able to close the distance and begin to grind, the TDs started coming easier which really put a stamp on those rounds. In the defense of Maheshate, Garcia is a good wrestler whose larger career successes have come from the floor.
Nonetheless, the floor has been the bigger component in how he’s dropped two of his pro fights.
There isn’t a ton to say here with Motta.
I’ve never seen him pursue TDs as he wants to stand and strike, and the time he’s spent on his back has been minimal.
He hasn’t faced many TDs at the same time, but he has shown largely good TDD mechanics in being able to dig underhooks and break grips to keep himself upright.
He fought Joe Solecki back regionally in a fight I wasn’t able to find but apparently Solecki had a healthy amount of floor success through the early rounds on Motta before Motta clipped him early in the 3rd.
In fairness, Solecki is a good wrestler/grappler and Motta didn’t get submitted which is a positive from another perspective – that fight was also over six years ago so take that for what you will.
In his fight with Ogden, he stuffed 13/16 shots and was able to scramble early but it was a later TD when he was more tired that gave him bigger problems. Ogden moved to mount to eventually set up an arm triangle where the fight was prematurely stopped by the referee which caused the NC. It’s hard to say whether Motta was going to be able to work out of that, but it was a fight he was clearly losing regardless.
Overall, from the sample we have, we can’t anticipate any offensive upside from Motta on the floor and despite having respectable TDD, there are a handful of fights now to suggest that the ground is a weakness in his game.
How it plays out: It’s hard to project the ground as both guys have zero interest in wrestling. They’re probably happy that they’ll give each other the striking fight they want. If you put a gun to my head, I guess I’d say Maheshate has more because he has one SUB win but has never been subbed, and the inverse can be said for Motta.
As touched on in the intro paragraph, both guys are lucky to still have a roster spot. Maheshate could have lost that split to Benitez last time out and if Motta hadn’t found the chin of Nolan early last time out, he probably would’ve gotten dusted himself or just outworked. I’m just not a huge proponent of either of these guys. For what I said in the striking section above, I’ll go with Maheshate – coupled with him still being really young at 24 so he has more of a ceiling to make leaps fight to fight, in comparison to Motta at 31 who probably just is what he is at this point. With that being said, I still don’t trust Maheshate especially coming off going life and death with a washed Gabriel Benitez.
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On DraftKings, I actually think this is a decent matchup to target for early finishing equity.
The downside is that both fighters will be extremely boom or bust, and both are poor talents, so it’s really difficult to trust. I also suspect that because of this, neither will be super chalky come fight night.
Maheshate is my preferred option at 8.7k, and I think he’s a decent upside tournament target. Again, he’ll need that early KO to have any shot at the optimal, but Motta has been KOd early in two of his three UFC losses.
Maheshate is actually -120 to win ITD, which now that I’m reading it, is pretty shocking. That’s a fantastic line and possibly means he’ll draw more attention than I originally thought.
I still don’t know if I or the public will fully trust him. He’s scored 69, 13 and 11 in his last three fights. He really just needs that early KO so there’s extreme bust risk here. But Maheshate is powerful and will have size advantages over Motta. I am not a fan of Motta and I worry about his durability.
The path for the early KO puts Maheshate firmly in play for me this week. I probably won’t be extremely overweight to the field, but I want a chunk of exposure as the matchup feels somewhat likely for the winner to score a KD/KO.
Motta at 7.5k is a fine tournament underdog as well for similar early KO upside.
He’s actually coming off a first-round KO which scored 109 DK points, and his only other win in the UFC scored 110. He also scored like 46 in a decision win on DWCS, which is an indication of what may happen if the fight extends.
The guy sucks. He’s low volume, and not very durable. But he hits very hard and the majority of his win equity is tied into early KOs. I don’t think he’s going to win here, but Maheshate was knocked down three times en route to a KO loss not too long ago, so it’s possible.
Motta is +310 to win ITD which isn’t great, but at 7.5k, he’s viable for his early finishing upside. I won’t be as high on him as I am on Maheshate, but he’s a solid secondary target for the price tag and worth mixing in.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Maheshate by TKO, RD 1 (Confidence=Medium-Low)