UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev (8/16/25)

Note: Please read the full analysis, that is much more important than who I pick to win. The confidence relates to my pick to win, not the path to victory. Picks are NOT bets. Matchup breakdowns are written by Brett unless otherwise noted, and all DraftKings analysis is written by Brett. Both Technical Tim and Luke Lampe will also contribute to matchup breakdowns.

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Dricus Du Plessis vs. Khamzat Chimaev

Fight Odds: Chimaev -234, Du Plessis +196

Odds to end ITD: -400

DraftKings Salaries: Chimaev 8.9k, Du Plessis 7.3k

Weight Class: 185

Many have awaited this moment since his debut, but Khamzat Chimaev will finally step into the Octagon to compete for the middleweight title on Saturday against current champion Dricus Du Plessis.

Chimaev is a world-class grappler and has utterly destroyed the majority of his competition, which includes his most recent first-round victory over former champion Robert Whittaker last October.

He now stands 14-0 as a pro, and will be the favorite to take home the belt this weekend. It’s difficult to deny what feels like an inevitability, as no opponent has been able to stop Chimaev’s wrestling onslaught. 

Of Chimaev’s eight UFC bouts, there are two that stand out as noteworthy to me from an analysis standpoint, and those two are his matchups against Kamaru Usman and Gilbert Burns.

Against Burns in 2022, Chimaev didn’t wrestle that much, potentially for fear of having to grapple with another world-class BJJ artist in Burns who could possibly put him in danger. Instead, Chimaev decided to showcase his striking in what turned out to be a real barn burner.

Chimaev won the fight, knocked Burns down, and landed 108 significant strikes, but I wasn’t overly impressed. He also absorbed 119 significant strikes in the process, and was hurt himself.

Burns is historically a very poor striker from an accuracy standpoint, but against Chimaev, Burns was landing at will. His career accuracy percentage sits at 48 percent, but against Chimaev, Burns landed at 59 percent and reached easy career highs in volume.

The fight itself was incredible, and obviously Chimaev hung in there and put up a strong pace himself. But he proved to be hittable, and he got very tired toward the end of the fight.

Against Usman in 2023, Chimaev easily won the first round with grappling and back control. In the second round, he had much less success, and only earned 41 seconds of control on one takedown, which luckily was enough for the judges to give him the nod.

But in round three, Chimaev had even less wrestling success, going 1/4 on takedowns and he again looked tired. Usman outstruck him to win the round but lost the fight.

This was with Usman getting off the couch on pretty short notice by the way, and up a weight class. And had that been a five-round fight, it looked pretty clear to me that Usman would be winning the championship rounds. You can argue Usman won round two as well.

So from a macro standpoint, I still have concerns with Chimaev over an extended period, and I have concerns with Chimaev when he is not dominating on the mat.

He will very likely ground every single opponent in this division early in the fight. He’s too strong of a wrestler, and is averaging 4.31 takedowns per 15 minutes. He’s excellent with control, and he can threaten a wide variety of submissions.

Any opponent who faces him will likely have to prove they can survive on the mat early, and most will not.

Even those who do aren’t out of the woods. Chimaev can land takedowns in round two and round three. He gets tired but he does push through fatigue better than others.

As a striker too, Chimaev is super dangerous early and packs a lot of power. He’s already proven he can land 100+ significant strikes. There is no easy out against Chimaev.

The longer the fight goes, clearly, the less dangerous Chimaev will become. His takedowns won’t succeed at as high of a rate. His explosive wrestling and submission game won’t yield as many finishes. He’ll become more hittable.

There’s clearly a recipe for someone to beat him over a five round fight and it’s quite possible that Dricus Du Plessis is up to the test.

I have not been very high on Du Plessis through the majority of his UFC career, unfortunately for me as I’ve been burned half a dozen times.

He’s 9-0 in the UFC himself and 23-2 as a pro, with wins over Adesanya, Strickland 2x and Whittaker.

One reason I’ve always been concerned with DDP is that he’s just not very good technically. Like, his striking technique is awful sometimes. There’s no way I can watch footage of him fighting and believe him to be a top-level competitor, let alone a champion.

But the reality is that he’s gotten the job done over and over. He carries insane power throughout rounds, and he’s now proven he can fight at a higher pace than I expected, for much longer than I expected.

Currently, DDP is landing 6.12 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 4.90 with a 54 percent defensive rate. He just landed 147 sig. strikes against Strickland in a five-round decision, and we saw him land 137 in their first matchup.

DDP can also wrestle, and he lands 2.55 takedowns per 15 minutes. I thought he was on his way to losing against Adesanya but Du Plessis managed to hurt Adesanya late, land takedowns, and lock up a RNC. DDP has actually taken down seven of his nine UFC opponents which is impressive.

Many have had success against Du Plessis for various reasons. Many have landed lots of significant strikes. Many have taken him down. He’s looked super tired late in many of his early UFC matchups. But he’s an excellent survivor and he’s been able to push through his fatigue far better than I’ve anticipated.

Whether I like it or not, Du Plessis now looks to be a fairly well-rounded fighter from a metrics standpoint, and a strong athlete with proven championship experience.

Still, I’d be shocked if Chimaev wasn’t able to put him through the ringer early in this bout.

Du Plessis has been taken down himself by fighters like Darren Till, Derek Brunson, and Robert Whittaker, and he really hasn’t faced any true wrestlers in his career besides Brunson who is known for having zero cardio.

DDP survived all those occasions, but he’s only defending takedowns at 50 percent. I see no reason to believe Chimaev can’t take him down early, and that is my expectation. From there, Chimaev will probably take dominant positions and try to finish the fight. This may not see a second round.

It’s difficult to say how likely it is that Du Plessis survives those early exchanges, and even if he does, Chimaev can probably continue to threaten for a little while.

However, at some point, the tide feels likely to turn where Chimaev is no longer able to easily get Du Plessis on the mat. When that happens, I expect Du Plessis to be clearly holding an edge in the striking exchanges, and if Chimaev is very tired, I wouldn’t at all be surprised to see Du Plessis hurt him and finish the fight.

This is a very difficult matchup for DDP on paper because his offensive takedowns will be essentially shut out (while Chimaev has any energy). And DDP probably won’t be able to really defend takedowns himself.

He has to survive, he has to consistently scramble up, he has to push forward on Chimaev and get him to work. And then he has to hope Chimaev gets tired enough to the point where Chimaev’s wrestling fails, and DDP is able to box him up.

My guess is that if DDP is still alive by round three, he probably wins this fight. I don’t think I can favor Chimaev to win championship rounds, and even by round three I’m quite skeptical how much cardio he’ll have left in the tank.

That gives DDP a real path. But it also comes down to projecting the quick finish which is tricky to do.

I have to lean toward Chimaev outright here, simply because he’s so likely to have early grappling success. DDP isn’t a particularly strong defensive wrestler, and I’m not sold on his survivability against a high-level grappler because we really haven’t seen him tested there.

But I do give him a real chance to get past it, push forward, and shock the world yet again.

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On DraftKings, Chimaev is priced up to 8.9k and will be among the top overall targets on the slate.

He will carry such a high floor and ceiling combination given his style, that it’s going to be difficult for me to pass up on rostering Chimaev whenever I have the ability to do so.

Unlike Anthony Hernandez last week, I’m not sure Chimaev has a 170 point ceiling and the ability to break into the record books with his wrestling onslaught. But in his past wins, Chimaev has scored 112, 92, 104, 101, 117, 127, 122 and 124, which is an average of 112 fantasy points. 

Of those, his worst two scores came in three-round decisions, so if you extrapolate it out, he clearly would have topped 120 if both had been five rounders.

The worst case scenario is probably that Chimaev wins too easily. If he lands one takedown and wins in 1:30, Chimaev may barely surpass 100 points. In that kind of scenario, perhaps he could get beaten out within this upper range.

But it feels like that is the absolute floor in a win, which still might be enough to be optimal at 8.9k, and the most realistic outcome is probably closer to 115 DK points or more, whether it comes ITD or by decision. His ITD line is -145, which is honestly not as strong as I would have expected, but still great for the price.

I assume Chimaev will be the most popular fighter on the entire slate, but he’s deserving of that nod, and I will aim for moderate to heavy exposure this weekend.

What would keep me off Chimaev would be rostering Du Plessis at 7.3k, hoping he can pull off the upset.

Without any other analysis, Du Plessis looks like a really strong target given the leverage he’ll carry against Chimaev, and the theoretical upside of a five-round win at 7.3k.

With some micro analysis, I am worried that he won’t produce much offense. Obviously, he’s very likely to be held down early and that will limit the amount of strikes he can land.

Plus, Du Plessis isn’t likely to land any takedowns, which drastically limits his floor/ceiling. He honestly won’t project as a good play at all given the production limitations.

We can look at Chimaev/Burns with hope for Du Plessis, as Burns landed 100 significant strikes, but I wouldn’t expect Chimaev to play around on the feet as much. Usman only landed 36 strikes and 0 takedowns in 15 minutes.

So my fear here.. is that not only is Du Plessis’ floor essentially 0, but the most likely outcome for him in a win is still extremely limited production. It’s probably a mid-late round finish, at best, or a decision at worst. With that could come 60-80 significant strikes.

I do think it’s possible Du Plessis wins this and scores less than 70 DK points, essentially edging out the final rounds with a few strikes after limited early offense. If he gets a mid-round KO, that would push him much closer to 100 points and would give me more confidence. He is +300 to win ITD which is fine.

I still like Du Plessis as a secondary target this week, for the price, for the main event exposure and the leverage. There is no guarantee of offensive production though, which makes it scary.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Chimaev by RNC, RD 1 (Confidence=Medium-Low)

Lerone Murphy vs. Aaron Pico

Fight Odds: Pico -181, Murphy +154

Odds to end ITD: +150

DraftKings Salaries: Pico 8.2k, Murphy 8k

Weight Class: 145

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

In the co-main event of the evening, we have a highly anticipated UFC debut for Aaron Pico where he will take on top contender and UFC veteran Lerone Murphy.

Pico is a super talented prospect. He comes from a legit wrestling background. He was the top ranked pound-for-pound high school wrestler in the country around a decade ago and won the U17 world championships in freestyle wrestling.

Pico actually took a non-traditional route and did not go to college to wrestle. He decided to pursue an Olympic wrestling cycle to try to win gold. He announced that he would pursue MMA after that one Olympic cycle.

Pico barely came up short in his Olympic pursuit. He was at the US Olympic trials in 2016 and made it all the way to the finals in a stacked weight class as a 19 year old. He lost in the finals in a nail biter to Frank Molinaro. Molinaro went on to compete for bronze in the Olympics. So Pico was right in the mix as a top Olympic wrestler at 19, so his wrestling background is as legit as they come.

After losing in the Olympic trials, Pico decided to pursue MMA and has not competed in wrestling since. Pico has basically exclusively fought in Bellator where he compiled a 13-4 record. He lost and was finished in all four of his losses which almost all came early in his career. He also has some notable wins against decent fighters like Henry Corrales, Pedro Carvalho, and Leandro Higo. I don’t think his wins are actually great in hindsight though and perhaps he is getting overrated coming into his debut.

However, I do like Pico’s skillset, especially offensively. He obviously is a very good wrestler and is capable of taking guys down, and controlling them and beating them up with ground-and-pound. He is also very physical and a capable submission grappler.  Pico is also a skilled defensive wrestler and grappler.

Pico is also a skilled boxer and has a golden gloves background. He has some good offensive boxing and super powerful hooks in the pocket. He has knocked plenty of fighters out cold and I consider him a fine boxer. I do think he is more dangerous and sharp as a boxer early in fights. Later in fights, his striking gets a little more sloppy as does his defense.

The issue with Pico is his durability and defense. He has been knocked out a couple of times and he doesn’t seem to take a shot well. He can be hit as well. 

I also just think Pico is a bit of a front runner. He seems like a guy who has to be dominating every second of the fight to win. He likes to be comfortable. The few times he has faced adversity, he hasn’t fought out of it and honestly that is my biggest concern from him. In the UFC, he will be fighting much better guys who theoretically can test him and put more offense on him. It will be interesting to see how Pico responds. He won’t be able to front run as much.

Pico will be taking on Lerone Murphy. Murphy seriously looked awesome against Edson Barboza. He outlanded Barboza 220-79 in significant strikes and almost all of those strikes landed by both men were at distance. It was a great volume performance by Murphy. Murphy also outlanded Babroza to the head 172-38 which is just crazy. 

That performance by Murphy was a bit of a surprise to me. Murphy has landed 93 significant strikes in three rounds before so he never had awful volume or anything, but it was a bit of a surprise for me and it impressed me. He has since followed up with a win over Dan Ige and Josh Emmett.

Murphy is mostly a striker. He lands 4.53 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.48 in return. He defends strikes at a solid 61 percent and his head strike numbers are good. He has good straight punches which are his bread and butter. He can also mix in kicks and occasional diverse strikes like elbows. He also has some decent power, and he is obviously capable of fighting at a high pace.

Murphy is also a competent grappler. He lands 1.45 takedowns per 15 minutes and is capable of taking down and holding opponents down here and there. 

Murphy only defends takedowns at 52 percent, but he is very physical and capable of scrambling up. I don’t consider him a good or great grappler. However, he is functional and very physically strong. I do think good grapplers will have success against him though and we have seen that in some of his competitive fights. I do think he can work up vs most guys though.

Overall though, Murphy is a solid fighter. He is a good striker, athletic, physical and can generally compete in all areas. I also consider him durable as well.

As far as this matchup goes, I have gone back and forth here. I just want to at least point out that Pico’s best win is Henry Corrales. Murphy is by far the best fighter that Pico has fought. So even Pico backers have to at least admit that this is a big step up. So it is possible that Pico shows up here and underperforms expectations simply because this is a huge step up in competition. That reason alone makes Murphy live.

Furthermore, I do think Murphy can have success here even if a very good version of Pico shows up. Murphy is a more experienced striker, is probably better defensively and is the better kicker. On the feet, I probably favor Murphy over the duration and think Murphy may be at an advantage on the feet as the fight extends. 

Murphy also can maybe hurt Pico and may just put Pico through adversity and take over. I also think Murphy can probably work up to his feet if taken down. I actually do think I am going to pick Murphy for the upset.

I still really like Pico’s skillset and he may win just fine. Pico is a dangerous boxer and may hurt Murphy, especially early in this fight. An early KO for Pico is on the table. Furthermore, Pico can surely land takedowns here and can probably obtain mild to moderate control. So Pico may compete on the feet, land some power shots, mix in some takedowns and win a decision. It seems like a realistic path to victory for Pico.

I am very torn. I think the main reason I am going with Murphy is just because Pico has never really won a fight where he has faced adversity and I think Murphy can have success. The front running nature of Pico just scares me a bit, as does the step up in competition. 

Murphy can probably land some good strikes and at least defend some takedowns and work up to his feet at times. So that success and resistance may discourage Pico. I am super excited for this fight either way as it is a good test for both guys.

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On DraftKings, it’s one of many tricky fights on the slate but man I am excited for the debut of Pico.

While I don’t expect Pico to run through the division, I do think he could beat nearly any fighter in this division. He is a devastating boxer, and an extremely talented wrestler. Those who survive his early onslaught or defend his takedowns will fight competitively with him, and I do worry he’ll continue to lose by knockout.

But Pico is a super legit talent and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him competing for a title sooner rather than later.

In terms of this matchup, I don’t think Murphy is the easiest opponent for Pico. Murphy is very experienced. At the same time, Pico is a better wrestler, and probably the more damaging boxer.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Pico hurt Murphy, who has been dropped multiple times in his UFC career. Pico should also be able to take Murphy down, as he defends at 52 percent.

That’s really my biggest concern. Murphy isn’t a great defensive wrestler. He can scramble up OK but Pico can probably land 3-5 takedowns here over 15 minutes and that gives him a really strong floor.

Obviously, Murphy needs to defend, scramble up, and then hurt Pico himself. He may need a knockout to win.

I’m kind of surprised this fight is -180 to go the distance. I think both fighters have knockout upside. Murphy is obviously tough and hasn’t lost ITD himself, which is why the line is sitting at this number, but I do expect them to trade and I wouldn’t be shocked if either man got hurt.

Pico is the more appealing fantasy target to me at 8.2k, and his betting line has climbed a bit this week, to where I see him as a solid value play at -180 to win. In a win, Pico will either land damaging strikes, or takedowns, and both options could see a real ceiling.

The issue is still that he’s only +225 to win ITD. In a striking based decision, Pico would bust. I’m not certain what his game plan will be.

I do think he will wrestle, and I do think he will land takedowns if the fight extends though. So personally, I’m willing to play Pico.

There is risk here, but Pico has a path to an early KO, and a path to several takedowns landed, so at worst he’s a solid secondary target. At 8.2k, I consider Pico a decent mix-in and I wouldn’t mind being overweight to the field.

Murphy at 8k may end up as the leverage target, where I would also have interest in him.

The issue is that Murphy won’t produce as much offense. He is very unlikely to have wrestling success, and if he doesn’t knock Pico out, he won’t score points. So he’s ultra boom or bust in that sense.

I’d feel better about targeting Murphy heavily if this fight was binary, but I think Murphy could land 60 strikes in a decision and win, potentially, and score 55 DK points.

At the same time, Pico’s already been knocked out multiple times and he’s never lost by decision. So maybe Murphy actually can hurt him and score a knockout. He’s +475 to win ITD which won’t rate out well.

The lower owned Murphy is, the better play he is. He won’t carry a floor and I don’t love him in this matchup, but I wouldn’t be shocked if this turns into a bit of a brawl at some point, where Murphy would have real knockout upside.

Given the leverage against Pico, I don’t mind Murphy on this slate as a place to be different. It’s tough to gain tons of exposure with the bust risk and matchup profile of Pico, but I wouldn’t fade him either. I think he has a real chance to win if he can simply survive some tough early exchanges.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Pico by TKO, RD 1 (Confidence=Low)

Geoff Neal vs. Carlos Prates

Fight Odds: Prates -243, Neal +203

Odds to end ITD: -180

DraftKings Salaries: Prates 9.1k, Neal 7.1k

Weight Class: 170

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

We have a super interesting fight here in the welterweight division between two top 15 fighters in Carlos Prates and Geoff Neal

Prates is a super interesting fighter. He is a dangerous striker who apparently smokes a pack of cigarettes a day. Somehow his cardio seems to hold up, though he doesn’t push much of a pace.

Prates most recently lost to Ian Garry in a five round main event. Garry won some early rounds by just landing more offense. Eventually, Prates started finding his mark though and damaged Garry, nearly securing a finish late in the fight.

I just consider Prates a long, damaging striker. He sometimes can take a little bit to get going for my liking, which is shown in his metrics as he only lands 3.60 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.79 in return. So he is getting hit more than he lands.

However, Prates has 8 knockdowns in 6 UFC fights and has never been hurt himself. Prates has knocked out 5 of 6 opponents and even in the Garry fight, Prates badly hurt him. So clearly Prates hits really hard from a strike per strike basis so he is going to outperform his metrics.

I do fear that Prates will lose striking decisions if his power doesn’t show up though. I still really respect his power and generally think he will dish out more damage than his opponents, but eventually I think he will lose a point based striking decision unexpectedly.

Prates doesn’t really wrestle offensively and I have actually been impressed by his defensive grappling improvement. He is now defending takedowns at 83 percent and generally looked good defending vs Garry.

Prates will be taking on UFC veteran Geoff Neal. Neal is mostly a striker. He lands 5.05 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 5.44 in return. He defends strikes at 57 percent. I will defend Neal’s ratios in the sense that his competition has been good. For example, he has fought five rounds against Wonderboy. So I don’t think his metrics are that bad given the context of his competition levels.

I consider Neal a solid striker. He has adequate boxing and good straight punches. He also can mix in occasional kicks. I do get frustrated with him in some exchanges though. Sometimes, he will feint his way into punching range and be within range to land, but he will just not throw. He did this vs Wonderboy so much and against several other fighters.

I do respect Neal’s power. He has 9 knockdowns in 15 UFC fights and has won by knockout a few times. Neal does have excellent TDD as he defends takedowns at 87 percent. He isn’t an offensive takedown threat though.

I think the main thing to point out about Neal is that he tends to do well in striking exchanges when people actually come after him. Guys like Luque, Perry and Niko Price came after him so Neal was able to tee off on them. Other guys like Wonderboy used lateral movement and controlled range, and Neal struggled.

As far as this matchup goes, I do think this line is a bit wide. I simply think this will just be a very competitive striking fight that could go either way. I doubt either guy really lands takedowns as neither fighter wrestles offensively much.

On the feet, I do think Prates is probably more dangerous. He could very easily catch Neal, or just hurt him and win a damage based decision. I could easily see that happening.

The thing is Neal is a pretty damn durable fighter though. He has only been knocked out one time in 22 professional fights, which came in round 3 against Shavkat Rakhmonov. He has also fought a ton of very good fighters and has never even really been hurt much. Furthermore, Neal is dangerous himself and could easily hurt Prates too. Prates has been knocked out twice on the regionals. Neal is probably the more defensively sound striker too. So there is a lot of variance at play here.

I also really worry if the damage doesn’t show up for Prates. I honestly think Neal is probably a better point striker. If Prates fails to hurt Neal in this fight then there is a good chance Prates doesn’t win. 

I really think this is a close fight. Damage could show up on either side and I expect exchanges to be competitive. However, I think Prates is too heavy of a favorite here. I think this will be close.

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On DraftKings, my fade on Prates will likely continue as he’s priced up to 9.1k.

I’ve been burned a handful of times already by Prates, but scored a big win by backing Garry against him in his last matchup.

It’s not even that I think Prates is bad – he’s a pretty solid striker and he’s pretty dangerous. He just doesn’t throw that much volume, he loses rounds to weaker competition, and he’s extremely dependent on an early KO to hit from a fantasy standpoint. 

Plus, I can’t stand the fact that he’s a chain smoker in a profession where cardio is so important, so it just makes it difficult for me to trust that the other decisions he makes will be the right ones.

In his four UFC wins, Prates has scored 95, 112, 106, and 122. The first two scores came in RD 2 KOs, and the latter two scores came in RD 1 KOs. If he gets a RD1/2 KO, he can contend for the optimal again.

Even with those scores though, twice he landed two knockdowns, and averaging 1.5 KDs per win just isn’t sustainable long term. Without them the 112 score drops to 102, and the 95 score drops to 85.

Point being, Prates has run a bit hot. I do think he can continue to win by KO but he’s fighting a solid level of competition, and 1 KD in a 2nd RD KO still isn’t necessarily likely to clear 100 points with ease.

In this particular matchup, sure, Prates can win by KO. Neal can be hurt and sometimes Neal is inconsistent with his style. Prates is -115 to win ITD. If you want to use Prates as a secondary target at 9.1k, I think that’s reasonable.

The fight is also a pick’em to start RD 3, and -175 to go Over 1.5 rounds, despite the overall ITD line being -180. I just don’t have the utmost faith he will win by KO in RD 1, and therefore, I don’t think being extremely high on him makes sense at 9.1k. Others in this range can match or exceed him.

Prates is fine on paper and does carry upside, but I’m fine with continuing to be underweight to the field if he once again projects to be popular.

Neal at 7.1k is viable but I have some ceiling concerns.

Neal isn’t particularly likely to wrestle, and I wouldn’t expect crazy volume either as Prates doesn’t really push a pace. Landing 80 significant strikes for the winner on either side is pretty realistic.

So if Neal wins a close decision, he might not even score 10x which is really scary. And while he has some knockout upside, it’s difficult to count on and he’s only +425 to win ITD.

Neal has a recent decision win that scored 64 points, and another 80 point win (with two knockdowns), so him falling somewhere in that range seems the most realistic to me. It makes me hesitant to target as even if he pulls off the W, I’m not certain he’s optimal.

That will keep Neal as a low-end secondary target in my mind. He’s probably the value side and he probably can win, but there’s additional risk due to the ceiling. I’m still fine to mix him in at a low price though, I just don’t consider him an outright priority.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Prates by Decision (Confidence=Low)

Jared Cannonier vs. Michael Page

Fight Odds: Page -195, Cannonier +165

Odds to end ITD: +170

DraftKings Salaries: Page 8.7k, Cannonier 7.5k

Weight Class: 185

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

We have an important middleweight contest here between Michael Venom Page and Jared Cannonier. The winner of this fight will get closer to a title shot, especially if it is Page.

Page made his UFC debut in March of 2024 against Kevin Holland and won a clean decision. He outlanded Holland 41-29 in significant strikes and did a good job of being defensively sound and frustrating Holland. He then lost to Ian Garry by getting outgrappled. 

Page most recently defeated Shara Magomedov by decision but only outlanded Magomedov 43-38 in significant strikes. Page skated around Magomedov in the first couple of rounds and was too defensive for Magomedov. However, in round 3 Magomedov pressured more and started having more success.

Before his UFC debut, Page had a successful Bellator career. Page is 23-3 professionally. Page is a striker through and through. He is long and awkward and comes from a kickboxing and sport karate background. He uses a very unorthodox and highly explosive point striking style. He will bounce on the outside, and blitz in and land devastating strikes. He will land all limbs as well including knees. He loves his dart in straight punch as well, it is a trademark of his. 

In a striking fight, I think Page is quite good and hard to deal with. I also like his defensive striking a lot. He rarely gets landed on while on the feet and he frustrated Holland and Magomedov badly. He also has knockout power. He can be in very low volume contests when he is fighting a competent striker though. This happens because Page moreso focuses on defense when the contest is more competitive. If Page has a big advantage on the feet then he is much more aggressive and will go for the finish.

The issue with Page is he is not the best defensive grappler. He lost to Logan Storley and even Paul Daley had success grappling him. I do think Page has improved his defensive grappling though, and I don’t think he is as vulnerable on the ground as other people think. However, a good grappler can take advantage of Page and Ian Garry recently did.

Page is just a fun addition to the roster. He is an awkward striker and explosive. He is also just hard to track down so he is theoretically live to win any striking fight.

Page will be taking on UFC veteran and former title challenger Jared Cannonier. Cannonier moved down from heavyweight to light heavyweight and then all the way down to middleweight.

I consider Cannonier a sprawl and brawler. He doesn’t really land takedowns as he lands 0.46 takedowns per 15 minutes. So he is pretty much just looking to stop takedowns, stay on the feet, and hurt his opponents.

Cannonier is a decent striker. He lands 3.60 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.49 in return. He defends strikes at 56 percent. Cannonier is decent as a round winner on the feet and competed with a good striker like Whittaker on the feet. However, I do think he is more reliant on winning rounds on the feet with effective strikes rather than volume which I don’t love. Cannonier does have some massive power though and 7 of his 11 UFC wins have come by knockout.

Cannonier most recently defeated Gregory Rodrigues by knockout. However, Cannonier got beaten up badly early in that fight. Cannonier was also knocked out by Imavov and hurt by Borralho. Cannonier is fighting really good competition. However, I still don’t like that he is 41 years old now and getting hurt a lot. These fighters generally get worse and not better. I still respect Cannonier though.

Cannonier historically defends takedowns at 64 percent. However, I really think his takedown defense and get-ups have improved dramatically since his early career, and I consider his defensive grappling solid. 

As far as this matchup goes, I generally think these guys will strike. Neither attempt many takedowns and both guys have adequate defensive grappling.

On the feet, I definitely like the defense and evasiveness of MVP more. MVP is just really hard to hit and we saw Cannonier really struggle landing on Israel Adesanya when Adesanya employed a fleet of foot and evasive type of gameplan. 

My guess is MVP will likely try to just point strike and skate to a decision. I do think MVP could hurt Cannonier though. Cannonier has been knocked out or hurt badly in his last four fights and I do think the power of MVP is probably being underrated by the market right now. So MVP is the pick overall. 

Cannonier still has power and could potentially hurt MVP. I just think Cannonier will struggle to hit MVP though. Perhaps Cannonier can pressure MVP and have success later in this fight too. I think Cannonier would be much more live in five rounds than three rounds because of that dynamic. However, this is a three round fight and my guess is MVP gets off to a lead by point fighting and hangs on to a decision.

—

On DratKings, Page will be extremely boom or bust and I’ve largely faded him to this point in his UFC career.

Page has gone to decision three times in a row and failed to land 45 significant strikes, so you’re going to get what you get. You need an early KO or he will bust completely.

That outcome is always on the table as Page is flashy and skillful. Cannonier can be hurt. Page is only +275 to win ITD though so he’s not necessarily likely to find the KO early.

I’ll probably continue to fade Page, to be honest. There’s just so much bust risk that even in a RD 2 KO, Page may not get there. He hasn’t even scored 55 points in either of his two decision wins yet.

I’m also expecting Page to be overlooked due to his recent lack of ceiling, so on the other side, I could understand being in on him a bit as a contrarian target.

It’s a fairly straightforward, ultra boom or bust target here with Page. Take some exposure if you wish as there is a path to the KO, but I’d cap my exposure pretty firmly.

Cannonier at 7.5k doesn’t interest me a whole lot.

I expect Page to be leading the dance and limiting Cannonier’s attack. In theory, Cannonier could hurt Page, or take him down. But Page is absorbing so few strikes per minute that I’m not sure I want to invest in that outcome.

Cannonier may actually have sneaky wrestling equity, but he’s not very consistent with it and historically averages less than 0.5 takedowns per 15 minutes. His ITD line here is +460.

I can’t say I love Cannonier in this matchup, and I’ll likely be very light on him as well. He too should be low owned and I suppose has paths to get there, but I don’t particularly trust it or the ceiling case.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Page by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)

Tim Elliott vs. Kai Asakura

Fight Odds: Asakura -313, Elliott +257

Odds to end ITD: -105

DraftKings Salaries: Asakura 9.2k, Elliott 7k

Weight Class: 125

Kai Asakura really disappointed in his UFC debut, losing in non-competitive fashion to the flyweight champion Alexandre Pantoja, but he’ll have a chance to pick up his first victory this weekend against veteran Tim Elliott.

Asakura is the former RIZIN bantamweight champion, holding a professional record of 21-5, and he’s earned 13 wins by knockout and three by submission.

Asakura is a pretty decent fighter and he’s competed against many strong opponents throughout his career. He has a win and a loss against Kyoji Horiguchi, as well as a win and a loss against Manel Kape. He most recently won the bantamweight title by beating Juan Archuleta.

Asakua comes from a street fighting background but has developed a solid MMA game. He’s a black belt in karate and a purple belt in BJJ, but I would say he excels on the feet.

He wants to play an outside game where he’s not easy to hit, and he will dart into range to box where he has fast hands and some power. I like that he can attack all levels, and he’s been able to rip opponents to the body at times from inside and the clinch.

Asakura doesn’t feel like a special prospect to me though. He’s 31 and pretty well-rounded, but I don’t know if he’s dominant in any one area of the game.

Though he’s a damaging striker and has been able to find the button on many opponents, I wouldn’t say he has immense one-shot power. He’s also been knocked out in three of his five losses, including by both Kape and Horiguchi.

I also don’t consider him an elite volume striker. He’s more of the type to have success because his opponents can not chase him down, rather than someone who will aim to brawl and win on heart alone. His volume is fine, but he’s going to largely have success when he can dictate the pace and range.

I’m also not sure Askaura is a real threat on the mat. He doesn’t wrestle offensively too often, and his defensive wrestling is respectable, but I’ve also seen him dragged down on a few occasions.

Against Pantoja, Asakura was essentially non-competitive. He gave up two takedowns on four attempts in the first round, and was also outlanded 29-15 at distance. In round two, Pantoja was able to secure another takedown, scramble to the back and finish with the RNC.

This isn’t to say it’s a massive let down – Pantoja is an elite champion in this day and age and he was simply better than Asakura – but we didn’t get much to work with from a data standpoint and I’ll be very curious to see how Asakura rebounds against Elliott.

Tim Elliott, for those who are unaware, is a DailyFanMMA OG favorite. This guy was winning us tournaments back in 2017 when he was landing 12 takedowns against Louis Smolka and putting up an ungodly amount of advances.

He scored 150 DK points in that fight, and he had other big wins early in his career of 154 and 133 points. He even fought for the title in 2016 against Demetrious Johnson and took him down four times.

And we’ve been chasing his upside ever since.

Unfortunately, Elliott’s aggressive tactics, and submission over position style have led to a bunch of losses in the interim, and the joke is that he’s continuing to cause us pain but we simply cannot quit. The “Timasochists” fan club was created and he will always have a place in my heart.

What’s cool is that Elliott has also seemingly had a career resurgence, and he’s now won five of his last seven, only losing to Mokaev and Nicolau. He’s coming off a first-round submission win over Sumudaerji in 2023, so he’s been on the shelf for a while.

Elliott is a solid wrestler overall, and he lands 3.73 takedowns per 15 minutes. He’s a black belt in jiu-jitsu as well, and is super crafty with his choking series.

However, he is very much submission over position and he will often chase chokes and awkward control positions over standard control, which can easily allow him to lose those positions. He’s in plenty of fun scrambles because of it.

Elliott doesn’t defend takedowns super well at 59 percent, but given his scrambling ability, he can usually survive and get back to his feet. He’s been submitted a few times now though, including late by Mokaev, late by Royval, and early by Figueiredo.

On the feet, Elliott is super awkward and moves in a non-traditional style that usually confuses opponents. He’s not extremely technical or powerful, but his awkwardness can lead to success. He lands 3.39 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 2.66 per minute with a 56 percent defensive rate.

I don’t particularly trust Elliott on the feet though. He doesn’t have much finishing ability and he’s now 38 years old. He is slowing down a bit and can be hurt, though he survives well.

I mostly want to target Elliott when he has a clear grappling advantage. If he can land takedowns, and he’s a better grappler scrambler, he can definitely continue to win fights at this level.

In this particular matchup, Elliott might be the better grappler. It’s not a real comparable to Pantoja, but Pantoja did land 3/7 takedowns and submit Asakura.

I think it at least gives Elliott hope. While he probably won’t have as much success, I do think a couple of takedowns are possible and I’d guess Elliott is the better scrambler of the two.

This is difficult to put stock into but Asakura has never won a UFC fight. I do think there’s a question to be asked as to whether he will show up in prime form or whether he’ll underperform due to a new spotlight being cast upon him. Elliott is very experienced.

Otherwise, I’d favor Asakura on the feet. He’s longer than Elliott and I don’t think he’ll be easy to track down or land shots on. Elliott may also have a tough time tracking him down and attempting takedowns, without the elite back control that Pantoja carries.

Asakura should be the more effective striker of the two, and if he can maintain range, it’s very likely he just outstrikes Elliott over the duration, or possibly hurts him along the way.

I don’t feel overwhelming confidence in breaking down this matchup due to some of the outside questions (Elliott aging, off a multi-year layoff, Asakura looking poor in a UFC debut). But I will take the younger fighter Asakura to keep the fight upright enough to work a distance striking game and get the nod.

—

On DraftKings, Asakura is priced up to 9.2k and I don’t think I can target him at a high rate.

The most likely outcome is probably a mid-paced, striking based decision, which would be an absolute bust for Asakura at this price. The fight is -125 to go the distance and Asakura is only +135 to win ITD, which isn’t particularly strong, though it does indicate some chance of a finish.

Asakura doesn’t wrestle at a super high rate and although Elliott has put himself in bad positions in the past, which have resulted in early sub losses, it’s hard to favor that outcome for Asakura. Even if he did score an early sub, I’m not sure it would be a stand out score at 9.2k.

Otherwise, I think he’d need a dominant knockout. I could definitely see him chipping away at Elliott and scoring a mid-round finish, but again without clear volume upside, I don’t know if that score will be enough.

I’d much rather target the grappling pacing of Hooper above him, and I assume the public will as well. Below him, Chimaev should soak up a ton of ownership as well.

It could honestly leave Asakura in a semi-contrarian spot, if that’s something that interests you. He has some finishing equity on paper and if he’s sub 20% owned, that could be one route to being unique.

I don’t love it though. I just don’t see a clear path to a smash in offensive production, or grappling domination, and I don’t feel like chasing a first-minute KO either. So I likely won’t end up with much exposure to Asakura myself.

Elliott at 7k will probably score a lot of points if he wins.

He likely will need multiple takedowns, lots of control and/or ground strikes, and/or a submission. He’s +259 to win though and +600 to win ITD.

I think Elliott is an OK low-end target this week. There are a lot of viable dogs, and I do think others have better chances to win or hit ceilings. I can’t recommend Elliott as a real investment this week.

He does however still carry a path to victory, with grappling upside, and in-cage experience, which is a value add. Plus, he’s cheap. If you need a cheap target on occasion, I don’t mind mixing in Elliott.

My best guess is still that his grappling offense will be limited, and that will pose a real threat to his chances of winning and hitting a ceiling.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Asakura by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)

UNDERCARD

Baisangsur Susurkaev vs. Eric Nolan

Fight Odds: Susurkaev -800, Nolan +575

Odds to end ITD: NA

DraftKings Salaries: NA (Projected Susurkaev 9.6k, Nolan 6.6k)

Weight Class: 185

*Matchup analysis written by Gordon Clark

WOW. We get ourselves a short notice matchup this week between the CFFC champion Eric Nolan and the newest contract winner on DWCS, Baisangur Susurkaev. This fight has plenty of hype behind it and is one I am truly looking forward to, let’s dive in. 

What a story, that’s all I got to say. Baisangur Susurkaev just broke onto the scene ON TUESDAY. TUESDAY! He is fighting on three days notice after getting a highlight reel KO on Dana White’s Contender Series. The hype on this guy prior to Tuesday was evident and man did he impress. 

Susurkaev is a main training partner of Khamzat Chimaev and is following in his footsteps with the quick turnaround. On Tuesday, he took on a solid opponent in Talha who had plenty of experience and was a pretty credible early power and wrestling threat. Susurkaev showed incredible takedown defense, balance and clinch striking, and when they broke, he put on a show by taunting his opponent, walking him down and finishing him with a nasty body kick, making his opponent scream in pain. 

Now I understand I’m being very very dramatic in the breakdown, but the hype was real on this guy beforehand. He is now 9-0, with 8 wins by KO and 7 of those coming in the very first round. He is very powerful and his striking really flows. He manages distance well, using kicks to all levels and quick power shots down the middle. He has the style of an Anderson Silva or Israel Adesanya in the way he is smooth and patient with his striking. He will take his time to land counters, attacking all levels and blending his striking very well. With that comes a bit of a downfall as he can be a little low volume as the fight extends, but with his accuracy it’s not always an issue. He also looks to keep this fight on the feet, but I do think he has pretty credible grappling shall it come to it. I mean, he’s training with Chimaev and his balance and TDD have checked out, but he has some pretty cool sweeps, reversals and ability to flow on the mat if it gets there.

Now we do have to outline the idea he’s cutting weight twice in one week and actually, his last fight was also on short notice, but let’s not ignore the fact this kid is a star in the making and one that Dana White loved immediately. They put him on this card to shine, to build him up, and I do think they are looking to market this fighter. His striking and physicality have looked fantastic so far and I’m interested to see how they translate to the UFC. This is a name to remember and I’m in awe at how he’s able to get a turn around on a PPV four days after earning a contract. Impressive.

Eric Nolan is kind of getting overshadowed in this fight here. Truth is, although I don’t have as much to say about him, I do not think he’s a bad prospect. He has incredible power and that check left hook has put people to SLEEP. But he’s not the reason he’s on the card here. He’s accepting an opportunity to face a highly touted prospect and you have to commend him for taking the shot, but it’s a tall task. 

He will not blow you away on the tape but despite the fact he is the B side in this matchup, I do think he has the skills to rattle off some wins against some lower level competition. He is 8-3 with 75% of his wins coming by way of finish. He has 4 KO wins and is on a streak of highlight reel finishes, including an insane faceplant KO on CFFC. 

Like I said, his power, especially his check left hook, is something to look out for and something that can certainly win moments in the Octagon. But on the feet, he is hittable from range and all his tools inside the cage require him to close distance. He is the classic wrestle-boxer and has mixed in takedowns recently, but he needs to bulldoze his way in to get to his game. I do think he has solid enough physicality to get takedowns, but he doesn’t have the wrestling pedigree to utilize technical trips or sweeps, and it’s all just based on physicality. 

Now he does have a TON of strength. He is a former marine and that shows in the Octagon by the fact he will wing power shots and rely on strength in the cage to get takedowns. But that leaves him susceptible to being hit on the outside and although he is extremely tough, he doesn’t always have the hand speed or technique to counter these quicker and more proven strikers. 

So am I happy to see Nolan here? Yes. I do think the guy can put on some fun fights in the UFC. However I do think he is a pretty meat and potatoes type of fighter and I would love to see him get more experience and technique before taking the step up in competition. I do think he is always live to win a fight using strength or his one shot power, but will struggle against better strikers or formidable grapplers.

Well, I think there is a pretty clear A-side in this matchup. Susurkaev is the talk of the town this week. Two fights in five days is CRAZY and the connection with Chimaev and the skills to back it up make him someone the UFC will look to market and someone’s name you should definitely remember. 

Susurkaev opened -350 and immediately shot up to -1500. Now the line has settled a bit and he is -900 at the time of me writing this, but it goes to show the hype behind the fighter here. They are showcasing Susurkaev in this matchup and not Nolan, and I think this is a matchup he can succeed in. I do think Nolan could clip him and land a big check left hook, but I think that’s a pretty slim outcome. Susurkaev will manage range using his kicks and I think his TDD will hold up here. He will cut angles and look to land the big shots on Nolan, where Susurkaev will be quicker and better technically. 

I think it’s only a matter of time before he lands big, although Nolan has shown to be tough. Yes, Susurkaev has 77% of his wins in round 1, but he has been patient at times to land his shots so I wouldn’t be surprised if Nolan was able to survive a bit here, but I do think the bigger, technical and highly touted Susurkaev will find the finish and continue his rise to stardom.

—

On DraftKings, Susurkaev will be the most expensive fighter on the board and I am personally expecting him to be priced around 9.7k.

Given the hype surrounding this kid and the story with the short-notice debut off DWCS, I wouldn’t be surprised if Susurkaev closed as the chalk of the top tier as well, although Hooper should gain a fair amount of attention in his own right.

You won’t be surprised but I’m a bit more skeptical of Susurkaev. He seems like a moderately dangerous range striker, and his grappling is decent, but I don’t see some top-end prospect personally.

Primarily, I don’t love his defense. He’s a bit flashy offensively and I think he’s open to be countered. He can get backed up and he’s not the highest volume striker either.

In his lone decision win, I thought he looked kind of bad after the first round. He gave up some pretty easy takedowns and I can’t exactly put my finger on it, but he’s just not giving enough effort. I’m not sure if it’s a cardio issue or that he feels so comfortable in there, given the level of competition across from him.

His pure takedown defense is OK and his grappling looks to be solid in general but I do think he can be roughed up by a more physical opponent. Perhaps that type of opponent will only exist at the upper levels of the division.

I would bet on Susurkaev having a lot of success when he can control exchanges. He can land hard shots at distance, and he’s shown some flashy finishing ability. I’m not sold he’s some elite round winner though, especially when fights extend, and I’d also like to see more of his pure wrestling before I crown him a real threat in the division.

Nolan doesn’t look like a particularly good prospect to me, and I doubt his game holds up at the UFC level.

He has some devastating knockouts where he’s completely folded guys, but I really don’t consider him a major power threat. At least two of those big finishes came against opponents with awful tall man’s defense where Nolan happened to connect super cleanly and just toppled them over.

I don’t consider him to be a strong wrestler or grappler, and I doubt he’s going to win clean boxing rounds either. Sure he might land the occasional big shot but I don’t see any area of the game where Nolan is going to clearly hold the advantage against UFC level competition.

So I do understand Susurkaev being a big favorite here, and he may truly have among the most early KO equity on the slate. ITD odds are not out yet, nor are there totals, but I am guessing Susurkaev will have super strong finishing metrics in this matchup.

Although he’ll be priced at the top of the board, nearly all of his wins have come in RD 1 and it feels pretty likely that if he wins, he’ll score another early finish.

So I don’t mind paying up for Susurkaev this week. There is no shortage of underdog options, so we should have the salary. Nolan has never been knocked out for what it’s worth although he’s lost once by submission.

Hooper likely carries higher upside though, so that’s worth consideration as Hooper will be priced several hundred dollars cheaper than Susurkaev. I think it’s very fair to prioritize Hooper outright because of Hooper’s grappling style.

Because of that, I won’t force my way onto Susurkaev this week. If I have salary available, great, I will consider him for finishing upside. I don’t mind starting lineups with Hooper instead.

Nolan should be the cheapest fighter on the slate in the mid 6ks, but I won’t have much interest as he’s a super big underdog.

There are too many competitive lines on this slate and I feel like we will see some underdogs win, so I don’t particularly feel the need to punt with Nolan. I don’t love his game anyways.

In theory, he might have better cardio than Susurkaev. On short notice, who knows how this fight will look after one round though. He also could have some boxing success but I doubt he’ll land a high volume of strikes.

We’re probably hoping Susurkaev outright fails, or Nolan randomly hurts him. It’s not impossible but I don’t think it’s worth taking many risks on, and I’d only consider Nolan a dart throw this week.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Susurkaev by TKO, RD 1 (Confidence=Medium-High)

Gerald Meerschaert vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk

Fight Odds: Oleksiejczuk -237, Meerschaert +198

Odds to end ITD: -350

DraftKings Salaries: Oleksiejczuk 9k, Meerschaert 7.2k

Weight Class: 185

We have a middle-class middleweight matchup here between Gerald Meerschaert and Michal Oleksiejczuk.

Meerschaert is a true veteran at age 37, holding a 37-19 professional record that includes six wins by knockout, and 29 wins by submission. In the UFC, he’s been very hit and miss, and holds a 12-11 record with all 12 victories coming inside the distance.

Meerschaert is best as a grappler where he is a black belt in BJJ, and if he can establish any real top control, he is capable of taking the back and locking in the RNC. Of his 12 UFC finishes, five have come by RNC, three have come by guillotine.

One problem with his game is that he’s not a particularly strong wrestler, and only averages 1.86 takedowns per 15 minutes. He can land the occasional takedown but he’s more of an opportunist, as it’s rare for him to land more than 1-2 takedowns over 15 minutes, and therefore his chances of winning multiple rounds with dominating control are slim.

More importantly, he’s a terrible defensive wrestler with a 42 percent defensive rate, and he’s happy to play off his back and give up dominant position. He’ll simply scramble out of it, and/or try to reverse position or threaten from his back.

This can work, but it’s not my favorite process and it contributes to Meerschaert’s weaker round winning ability in general.

On the feet, Meerschaert is an adequate kickboxer at best, landing 3.05 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 3.43 per minute with a 53 percent defensive rate. He isn’t terrible, but he’s usually behind on the numbers and he’s been knocked down many times.

Overall, Meerschaert’s a true veteran with a ton of experience, and he can’t be counted out due to his opportunistic grappling approach. But he’ll likely be the underdog in matchups moving forward as his round winning ability is limited both on the feet and on the mat.

Michal Oleksiejczuk has shared a similar hit or miss type of career as Meerschaert, holding a 20-9 pro record with 15 wins by knockout. In the UFC, Oleksiejczuk is 8-7 with 1 No Contest.

Oleksiejczuk is a boxer, and the vast majority of his wins have come by early knockout, although I wouldn’t put him into a bucket of the type who are completely dependent on quick finishes. Still, of his eight UFC wins, seven have come by first round knockout, with the eighth coming by split decision.

Oleksiejczuk lands 5.27 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 4.51 per minute with a 59 percent defensive rate. He’s got quick hands, and power. He’s also a little bit undersized, and has struggled against some more physical opponents, but that also typically helps him hold the speed advantage.

I don’t consider Oleksiejczuk a poor wrestler, but the ground is where he’s typically shown the biggest weaknesses. Of his seven UFC losses, five have come by submission. It is worth noting that those losses came against Borralho, Holland, Michel Pereira, Jimmy Crute and OSP which is pretty strong competition.

Oleksiejczuk lands 1.05 takedown per 15 minutes and defends at 48 percent, which is fairly poor. He can certainly be outgrappled. 

I did actually bet on him in his last matchup against Dumas because I think his grappling weaknesses have been overplayed. For example, he fought Borralho pretty well, and fought out of multiple takedowns before eventually succumbing to the RNC.

He also fought really competitively with Shara Magomedov and took him down three times, so perhaps his overall wrestling game is leveling up a bit.

Realistically, the majority of Oleksiejczuk’s success will come early in fights, via boxing, and via knockouts. He can sustain his striking for three rounds but his volume will taper off a bit. He will also struggle against quality wrestler/grappler archetypes.

As far as this matchup, it seems somewhat binary to me in that Oleksiejczuk should have the clear boxing advantage, and Meerschaert should have the grappling advantage.

On the feet, Oleksiejczuk should be way faster, and should have a much better chance of hurting Meerschaert than vice versa. I do think Meerschaert could compete over three rounds but I wouldn’t expect him to win, and I think Oleksiejczuk hurting him early is a pretty reasonable outcome.

Both fighters can probably take down one another. I wouldn’t expect Oleksiejczuk to shoot takedowns though in fear of Meerschaert’s ground game, and I would expect Meerschaert to shoot a handful of times.

If he can secure them, great, he’ll probably win. If not, he’ll probably lose.

Just given how many times Oleksiejczuk has been submitted, I obviously give Meerschaert a shot here. He’s not a horrible offensive wrestler and 1-2 takedowns are possible. If they come after round one, honestly, that might just be enough to get the sub.

But I do think Oleksiejczuk will have advantages early with his boxing and speed, and if Meerschaert can’t take him down, I’d give Olek a fair shot of winning a decision as well. Early knockouts are tough to predict but Meerschaert has been knocked down by five different opponents, so I might just pick Olek to continue his early KO success.

—

On DraftKings, Oleksiejczuk is priced up to 9k and will be completely dependent on an early knockout.

I wouldn’t expect him to wrestle, nor have any real ground success, and volume shouldn’t matter over three rounds. He needs to secure an early knockout, probably in round one, and if he can manage that, he’ll have a good shot to clear 100 points and contend for the optimal.

Oleksiejczuk is -145 to win ITD which is really strong. But it also reflects real finishing upside for Olek which I do agree with.

Therefore, targeting Oleksiejczuk at 9k seems like a reasonable choice in tournaments. He won’t carry any floor and is still a major bust risk in an extended fight, but targeting finishing equity is smart and this is still a semi-binary matchup.

I won’t aim to be particularly high on Oleksiejczuk in comparison to the field, but he’s a solid, boom or bust secondary target who can get to the optimal if he can score the early KO.

Meerschaert at 7.2k is viable as well given his grappling path.

One problem he’s always had is that his ceiling is limited because he tends to come from behind in wins. He’s won ITD and scored 86, 85, 62 and 77 before. He also has some wins closer to 100 points, or above.

I suppose it doesn’t really matter at this price. Sure, he could win and still not be optimal, but if he does win, you’ll want some exposure. He’s +340 to win ITD which is OK.

I don’t have a lot of faith in Meerschaert to be honest and I’m not particularly high on him in this matchup, but his win condition is clear, and Olek’s losing condition has been predictive over the years. 

I consider Meerschaert a reasonable secondary underdog target because of it, and given DK’s scoring system, a grappling based win/finish is something I’d like exposure to.

This is a semi-binary matchup on paper that’s -350 to end inside the distance, so I consider it among the stronger matchups to target on the slate outright. Both sides are very dependent on the finish to score points though, and that will keep my exposure a little bit capped.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Oleksiejczuk by TKO, RD 1 (Confidence=Medium-Low)

Jessica Andrade vs. Lupita Godinez

Fight Odds: Godinez -149, Andrade +127

Odds to end ITD: +215

DraftKings Salaries: Godinez 8.4k, Andrade 7.8k

Weight Class: 115

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

We have a bit of a crossroads fight here for Loopy Godinez here as she will take on Jessica Andrade this weekend.

Godinez comes from a wrestling background, and I consider her an average wrestler for WMMA. Godinez lands 2.21 takedowns per 15 minutes and she has the cardio to land takedowns for a full 15 minutes. I think Godinez can continue to beat below-average grapplers consistently at this level with volume wrestling alone. Godinez isn’t a great submission grappler though and only has a couple of submission wins in her career.

Godinez has some decent boxing and a bit of pop in her hands. I actually quite like her power and she has a strong overhand right. She lands 4.28 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.87 in return. She can have issues with experienced strikers but overall, I don’t mind her on the feet. I guess she is just average. 

Godinez defends takedowns at 81 percent and has decent takedown defense overall. I liked the way she scrambled up vs Calvillo and Lookboonmee when taken down as well. She did have her back taken while standing a couple of times vs Jessica Penne and Jandiroba got her back as well. However, I don’t consider her a liability defensively at all and she is generally tough to grapple.

Godinez will be taking on UFC veteran Jessica Andrade. One of the biggest strengths of Andrade is her aggression and cardio combination. She will march her opponents down and put a wild pace on them, whether it is with her strikes or with her takedowns.

As a striker, Andrade isn’t all that technical but she is quite competent and dangerous. She has one punch power and is very aggressive and wings wild hooks. She lands 6.39 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 5.49 in return.

Andrade is hittable, but she generally hits much harder than her opponents from a strike per strike basis, and tends to wear them down over the course of 15 minutes. She does get hurt every now and then though and was recently knocked out by Yan Xiaonan, so her durability is worrying me a bit.

As a grappler, Andrade again isn’t all that technical but she is very tenacious and physically strong which aids her takedown ability. Andrade lands 2.21 takedowns per 15 minutes and can absolutely break opponents with her takedowns and ground control. 

Andrade defends takedowns at 71 percent, and I actually do consider her first layer takedown defense pretty decent. She has been submitted on the mat a lot recently though. She moreso has an issue giving up her back and fighters can take advantage of hook opportunities or front choke opportunities when she is in the front headlock position. I don’t think she is all that easy to actually land a takedown on and hold down. You basically just need to catch her in transition when she gives up her back.

It is tough because Andrade has lost a lot lately. However, her losses have been to Jasmine Jasudavicius, Natalia Silva, Tatiana Suarez, Yan Xiaonan, and Erin Blanchfield. It is hard to be super harsh on Andrade for those losses. Andrade in that timeframe beat the crap out of Mackenzie Dern and also beat Marina Rodriguez. I do think Andrade is still capable, especially against a more manageable opponent which Godinez is.

This is a close one here. I do think Godinez can land spot takedowns. However, I don’t think Godinez’s top control is great either. I also think Andrade has decent first layer tdd. I think I project Godinez to land a couple of takedowns with some mild to moderate control. It may win her the fight.

Still though, I don’t expect domination on the mat by Godinez here either. I think Godinez will be forced to strike at times where I think Andrade is better. I think Andrade has more volume and is just much more dangerous, and throws better in combination. I think Andrade is also more likely to land consistent damage overall. So I am going to pick Andrade here. This is really going to be a tight one though. 

—

On DraftKings, this is a tough one.

I’m not particularly high on Godinez, but Andrade pushes such a heavy pace that Godinez will need to produce offense to win, and it will likely need to come on the mat.

While I don’t think Godinez easily holds Andrade down, that may be helpful from a fantasy standpoint as she may have to wrestle more often. Godinez has landed 5+ takedowns in five of her eight UFC wins, including her most recent victory. 

That recent victory resulted in a 108 DK score because it also came with 8.5 minutes of control and 100+ total strikes, which I’m skeptical Godinez can duplicate here. However, on three other occasions where she landed 5+ takedowns, Godinez topped 120 DK points, so her floor/ceiling in wins has generally been awesome.

This one is tough. I don’t love Godinez and I may not pick her to win. She’s only +675 to win ITD which is really poor. Her really only chance is to wrestle at a high rate from a fantasy standpoint.

But at 8.4k, if she can do it, she can clearly exceed value. If she’s also going to be lower owned, which I am expecting, perhaps Godinez is a sneaky target worth buying into a bit.

I think I’d simply consider her a secondary target this week. I don’t feel comfortable targeting her heavily due to her limited path to win and lack of finishing ability. But I like the pacing of this matchup and I like Godinez’ historic wrestling ceiling, so I’m still willing to mix her in for 8.4k and she could be a bit sneaky in general.

Andrade at 7.8k has generally smashed when she wins.

In fact, she has won 17 times in the UFC and only failed to reach 90 points on two occasions, with many of her wins reaching the 130-140 point range.

Andrade has legit volume striking upside and she can also occasionally mix in 2-4 takedowns. Plus, she has real finishing ability in most matchups given her power.

She will continue to rate out well here with a +275 ITD line, and even more so if her betting line continues to inch toward even money. She seems like a fine value target all things considered.

I suppose I do have less faith in Andrade reaching a ceiling in this particular matchup though. Andrade hasn’t landed 2+ takedowns in a fight since 2020, which is a span of 11 matchups.. so at this point, I don’t think I could project her for more than one.

I would expect her volume to be decent here but 80 significant strikes isn’t enough to smash. In her most recent win, she followed this general expectation and scored 85 DK points, which I think may be my expectation in this matchup.

I like Andrade somewhat and I also consider her a fine secondary target. If she becomes the favorite by fight night, for example, I’d like her more as an option to win below the mid-range. She also has real historic upside which I don’t think can be ignored.

I would be a little surprised if she won ITD, landed tons of takedowns, and reached 100 points though. So I won’t be prioritizing Andrade well ahead of the field, but at 7.8k, I understand the merit of mixing her in around the field percentage.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Andrade by Decision (Confidence=Low)

Alexander Hernandez vs. Chase Hooper

Fight Odds: Hooper -322, Hernandez +263

Odds to end ITD: -150

DraftKings Salaries: Hooper 9.3k, Hernandez 6.9k

Weight Class: 155

*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe

Alexander Hernandez got the call to the UFC back in 2018 as a short notice replacement and scored a huge upset win/viral knockout over Beneil Dariush which put his name on the map. However, Hernandez hasn’t lived up to original expectation since, having bounced around weight classes and being generally inconsistent – he’s 8-7 in the UFC and 16-8 as a pro. Chase Hooper’s a Contender Series alum that had an up and down start to his UFC run, but since filling into his frame some more and moving up to 155 back in 2023, he’s put together a 5-fight win streak – he’s 8-3 in the UFC and 16-3-1 as a pro.  

The striking component: 

Hernandez has traditionally worked a pressure-based style; however, he’s shown passivity in certain fights as well.     

In saying that, he’s still putting up some decent numbers (outside of the Trinaldo/Moises fights) but is more movement based and looking to fight in blitzes. Despite getting TKO’d by Dober, he had a solid start to the fight, but it was the pressure and volume of Dober that got to him.    

Against Gruetzmacher, despite a step down in competition, his striking looked much more fluid and it seemed that his technical striking acumen had made some strides.    

The Moises fight was pretty competitive but he just got edged out – he smoked Breeden early – had a decent start against Moicano but broke under pressure – similar scenario in his fight against Quarantillo – he edged out Miller – he just got outworked by Algeo – most recently, the striking in the Jackson, Hubbard and Holobaugh fights was competitive.  

Statistically, his output is slightly above average – 4.4 SLpM at 41% and 4.9 DLpM at 38% but there has been some grinding in some of his fights and the Trinaldo fight was just a staring contest which is going to skew that number down.    

Hernandez likes to mix in kicks and works a more darting in and out style with hooks and overhands. He’s not the tallest guy in the division so this is a style that he pretty much has to implement for him to be successful.      

Important to note that he does have some power as well, finishing three of his eight UFC wins by KO. The main issue with Hernandez comes with his defense as he eats 4.6 SApM defending at 57%, and has been hurt in five of his seven UFC losses.  

Overall, I think the movement, pace (at times) and the darting in and out nature puts Hernandez as an above-average offensive striker but he’s going to still struggle with effective pressure or better range games. 

Hooper’s been a sub-par striker historically but there have been improvements in recent years as I thought he looked better on the feet against Colares and Fiore than he ever has in the past, pushing a solid rate. He’s also knocked Slava down and beat him up pretty good. 

But traditionally, he’s not very fast and doesn’t possess much general process or technical ability.     

He’s also often only one and done, throwing naked kicks or just flinging out a jab from a more range-based sequence. This is a testament to his striking defense sitting at 39%.     

His offensive metrics actually aren’t bad but if you look into the fights, a decent chunk of his strikes are coming also on the ground. Even in outlanding Barrett numerically at distance – he was clearly down in the first two rounds as he ate the bigger shots and his lead leg got chewed with kicks. He did outland Peterson at distance but to nothing of efficacy.    

He’s traditionally been a tough guy surviving getting hurt, but we did see that get cracked against Garcia a few fights back so he’s no longer invincible – still tough nonetheless though.     

Overall, I’ve seen some evolution in Hooper since his regional days where he appears more comfortable and is moving better, but his striking still isn’t pretty and he’ll be a liability going forward against more adept guys. 

How it plays out: Off the top, Hooper will realize a size advantage of 4” in height and 2” in reach. Despite Hooper having a size advantage here and some spammy volume, I’d ultimately favor Hernandez as the better technical striker, who’s faster, hits harder and while still hittable, has the better defense of the two on an exchange to exchange basis. While I have my issues with Hernandez, the reality is that Hooper’s only comprehensively outstruck one opponent at distance in his UFC run which was Nick Fiore who’s a non-UFC level jiu-jitsu guy. Maybe Hooper can just take some shots early and pour on pressure late like Quarantillo did but I ultimately have to see a lot more from Hooper before I’d outright favor him standing over Hernandez.

The wrestling/grappling component: 

Hernandez is a respectable entry-based wrestler when he chooses to pursue and is a BJJ black belt.      

His TD metrics are semi-underwhelming though around the divisional average at 1.2 per 15 minutes at 36%, and he’s really struggled with control in the UFC outside of his fight with OAM where he was able to get nearly eight minutes of control time, and recently against Holobaugh who tends to play from his back. But to Hernandez’s credit, he hasn’t exactly had the easiest of guys to “grind”.      

I thought he would perform better against Dober, but Dober’s leveled up quite significantly in that department from his earlier days. You actually have to go back to his regional footage where that was really his bread and butter, getting the large majority of his fights down and scoring more ground-based finishes.      

In that, he’s got a good back take and RNC, but we haven’t seen a ton of offensive grappling prowess from him in the UFC outside of his fight with OAM and a brief arm triangle against Billy Q.   

Defensively, we haven’t seen him tested much outside of his fight with Moicano.   

He actually put up good resistance early on against Moicano but eventually got choked out after getting tagged on the feet – no shame really as Moicano is a monster on the floor.     

He also started to eat heavy ground strikes from Billy Q in the 2nd round and did get threatened with a choke at the end of the Miller fight. 

But the wrestling of Jackson played a pivotal role in that decision where Hernandez conceded three TDs and six minutes of control. 

Overall, despite our sample, it’s still a bit difficult to assess Hernandez’ ground game at this point in time because any real defensive issues have been primarily damage and cardio based – he’s still stuffing at 71% and only being controlled for 9% of his fight time

Hooper’s a crafty grappler by nature but has struggled as a pure wrestler in his wider past. 

He almost has the Mackenzie Dern thing going on where their TD metrics are horrible, but their fights find their way to the ground. In that, he’s got a good leg lock game, is very strong when he can get to top position (when he wants to solidify) and has good ground and pound capabilities.     

He usually finds his way to the ground by pulling guard or getting into weird entanglements from the clinch – only stuffs at 55% and will accept TDs as well.    

To his credit, he’s made that work well in some capacity. While his offensive wrestling has improved in recent years, he’s not really facing strong TD defenders. 

However, we’ve seen what has happened when he can’t get fights down against Caceres – got pieced up on the feet and was being effectively outstruck (despite the numbers) by Barrett prior to Barrett having a lobotomy and getting subbed.     

He was outwrestled/outhustled by Peterson who was just able to be defensively responsible, not get submitted and largely win on control and ground strikes. But he won in the scrambles against Fiore and Leavitt more recently to pick up wins there. 

He dismantled Slava on the ground and eventually submitted him but Slava’s terrible on the ground. More recently, he’s picked up floor based wins over ancient fighters in Guida (who’s been a mark to the SUB his whole career) and tossed Jim Miller around for the better part of 15 minutes (who’s not a good defensive wrestler).  

Overall, Hooper brings a funky/unorthodox ground game that opponents have to give respect to but he’s beatable at the same time by fighters with better TDD or who can just lock him down.

How it plays out: The ground’s somewhat interesting here as I feel Hernandez is one of the more capable TD defenders that Hooper’s fought thus far in the UFC – aka, I don’t think the bell’s going to ding and Hooper’s going to just toss Hernandez all over the place. I see more grappling merit to Hooper in an extended fight if he’s able to wear Hernandez down – I would give him a BJJ advantage as well. On the flip side, Hernandez could very well land TDs on Hooper here if he wanted to – I’m just not sure how intelligent of a gameplan it would be to initiate those sequences here.

Funky fight. I honestly didn’t think much of Hooper when he came into the UFC as he seemed more like a novelty act than any real prospect. But he’s filling into his frame at 155, he’s getting more mature at 25 years old and has made improvements in his game. On the flip side, I’ve historically been a Hernandez hater because while he’s a talented and well rounded fighter, he’s a guy that really struggles to put together a full 15 minutes. In relation to this matchup, the primary thing that favors Hooper is cardio as Hernandez has historically had a spotty gas tank and fades as fights progress. I do think his cardio is better at 155 in comparison to 145 though. But outside of cardio and raw jiu-jitsu potency, I’m not really sure where Hooper is better to be honest. The cardio aspect in and of itself probably puts Hooper as the favorite because Hernandez can fall apart and Hooper is a finisher. Nonetheless, I still consider Hernandez a pretty live dog as he checks a healthy number of boxes: better athlete, better strength of schedule, better striking and potentially the defensive wrestling to minimize Hooper getting the fight where it needs to be. I’ll go out on a limb say Hernandez dogs out the first couple rounds to a decision win.

—

On DraftKings, I’m expecting Hooper to be one of the most popular fighters on the slate at 9.3k.

He has put up a tremendous grappling pace recently, and with it, he’s scored 104, 113, 134, 95, 120, 143, 74 and 112. That’s a super strong resume of scores and it makes Hooper among the highest upside targets on this slate.

Even against Hernandez who is a tougher opponent on paper, if Hooper wins, it’s probably through grappling pace again. Hernandez has tired out and been finished, and obviously Hooper is sitting as a solid favorite, lined north of -300. He’s also -105 to win ITD. It means Hooper will rate out among the top overall targets this week.

With that said, Luke just did pick him to lose, and I understand it. I haven’t been as high on Hooper as the public, though I do think he’s improving, his striking defense is rough and his wrestling isn’t that great.

I could see Hernandez having success standing, and winning some wrestling exchanges. So it’s not as if Hooper is a lock to win.

You could consider coming in underweight on Hooper due to this. With Susurkaev priced above, you can restructure lineups to fit him in if you feel more safe with the -800 favorite.

I do think Hooper carries more DraftKings upside though, and I honestly may rather play him for it. Maybe it burns me, but if Hooper has any early success, I see him just taking over from that point and likely putting up another big score that clears 100 points, and puts him on the optimal lineup.

So there is likely more risk here than what’s typical for a -300 favorite. It’s fair to be cautious, especially as Hooper will be chalk. But I also can’t ignore his fighting style and DraftKings upside and at these odds, I’ll still end up with a moderate or more amount of Hooper on my lineups.

Hernandez is an intriguing leverage target at 6.9k.

If he wins, it probably comes with takedowns landed, and/or striking damage. And it’s not as if Hooper can’t be hurt or taken down, so if this plays out, nobody should be shocked.

I’m not as high on Hernandez as I used to be though. He’s underperformed my expectations a lot. I’m not picking him to win.

I would bet he’ll be pretty low owned though, and obviously he’s the cheapest fighter on the slate. Even with a poor +525 ITD line, Hernandez carries some upside in this matchup due to Hooper’s poor defense.

I don’t mind being on Hernandez to a degree, and/or overweight to the field. The bottom tier is filled with live dogs which makes it really tough to prioritize Hernandez outright, but he’s a potentially sneaky leverage play who could be the key to unlocking your lineup if he hits, and I don’t mind taking a few shots.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Hooper by RNC, RD 3 (Confidence=Medium)

Edson Barboza vs. Drakkar Klose

Fight Odds: Barboza -140, Klose +120

Odds to end ITD: +120

DraftKings Salaries: Barboza 8.3k, Klose 7.9k

Weight Class: 155

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

We have a fun action fight here in the lightweight division between UFC veterans Edson Barboza and Drakkar Klose.

Barboza is a striker and historically a very dangerous one. Barboza lands 4.11 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.65 in return. Those metrics may surprise some people. Barboza has a negative striking ratio and is known to be a high tier striker which seems weird.

However, many of Barboza’s strikes absorbed have been on the mat. He also has faced incredible competition. So I think Barboza’s metrics are skewed and he is definitely a solid striker who can pummel inferior strikers.

Barboza also has massive and unpredictable power. He has knockout wins over Shane Burgos, Dan Hooker, and Beneil Dariush which is impressive. He also has one of the best knockouts in UFC history by spinning wheel kick over Terry Etim. Go watch that fight if you haven’t before.

Barboza isn’t interested in grappling offensively and only lands 0.45 takedowns per 15 minutes. So he is basically limited to winning fights by knockout or striking based decision.

Barboza has pretty solid first layer takedown defense. He defends takedowns at 72 percent which is good. He is very hard to take down in the middle of the cage. However, against the fence, it is much easier to get him to the mat. I do think he has pretty good takedown defense though in general. It obviously won’t hold up against guys like Khabib or Kevin Lee, but it is serviceable for this weight class.

My issue with Barboza is his get-ups. People do not discuss this enough. His get-ups are AWFUL. I wrote a dissertation before his Mitchell fight about how bad his get-ups are. I thought Mitchell was a good bet because of it and Barboza could not get up after any completed takedown. His get-ups will always be an issue.

Furthermore, I don’t trust Barboza against pressure fighters. If you push a pace on Barboza and make him fight going backwards, he isn’t nearly as effective. It also just increases someone’s chances to land takedowns on Barboza.

I am also a little bit worried about Barboza’s age. He is 39 years old now and looked pretty bad in his last matchup vs Lerone Murphy, and got the crap kicked out of him. That fight also took place over a year ago. So it is tough to guess Barboza’s form. He is clearly not in his prime anymore and I am just having trouble predicting how he will look this weekend. My guess is he can still strike competently but I don’t have a ton of faith in him at this point in his career.

Barboza will be taking on Drakkar Klose. Klose was last seen in the Octagon getting knocked out by Joel Alvarez. I consider Klose a pretty decent fighter who has no major holes in any area. He isn’t particularly great at anything though.

As a striker, Klose is fine. He lands 4.33 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.54 in return. Those are okay metrics but they have come against very good competition. Klose is competent on the feet and can mix in his pressure hook combinations. He also showed some good low kicks vs Lando Vannatta.

Klose really likes to crash the clinch and push people against the cage and mix in clinch strikes. It is one of his favorite things to do. He is physical and uses his physicality in the clinch. You really saw him impose that game against Devin Powell.

Klose is also a competent grappler. He can mix in takedowns and lands 1.65 takedowns per 15 minutes. I don’t consider him great on the mat on top with control, but he can start controlling people if he starts tiring them out. Klose just has a very good pace and it is probably his best weapon. 

Klose is a decent defensive grappler. He defends takedowns at 69 percent and is generally hard to control on the mat.

I just consider Klose solid. He can strike a bit, clinch a bit, wrestle a bit. He is also tough and will not slow down. I do think he has declined a bit though and didn’t look nearly as good against Joaquim Silva and Joel Alvarez.

As far as this matchup goes, I have gone back and forth here. If these guys were in their primes, I think Barboza would be much easier to pick. Barboza just hasn’t looked great lately and is pushing 40. I don’t think Klose has looked great lately either though.

On the feet, I think Barboza is more dangerous and dynamic and ultimately why I will pick him. I just think Barboza is a better kicker and has more speed as well. It may carry him to a knockout win or a striking based decision. He is also probably more likely to win by knockout in this matchup in general.

The issue is Barboza succumbs to pressure and Klose will likely get in Barboza’s face and clinch, and maybe mix in takedowns as well. The dirtier Klose makes this fight the more likely he is to win. I do think Klose can pull that off too and a competitive line makes sense. 

I still tend to think Klose is more likely to get hurt with a big shot though. Klose rarely wins by knockout and has been knocked out himself and hurt more and more lately. I will pick Barboza to get this done as I think he has more finishing upside. This is a close fight though and both guys have ways to cause problems for one another.

—

On DraftKings, this should be a fun mid-range fight that is a little bit difficult to call for the reasons Tim explained.

Most likely, we’re betting on someone to get hurt here which is also tricky as the fight is actually -150 to go the distance. In a decision, I’d be pretty skeptical of either side exceeding value.

Barboza is probably more dependent on the knockout of the two. Priced at 8.3k, a striking based decision won’t get Barboza to the optimal.

I don’t have a ton of faith in him, but he’s still a dangerous striker and Klose has been hurt in back-to-back matchups, with his most recent loss coming by KO. Barboza is +190 to win ITD which is OK.

I don’t see any reason to be particularly high on Barboza, but he does carry some finishing equity at a cheap price tag, and he can be mixed in as you see necessary. I’d probably aim to come in near the field percentage, not take a stand, and not allow this fight to kill me one way or the other.

Klose a 7.9 has more wrestling upside and in theory, he’d be safer in a decision.

However, he hasn’t really produced big scores in decisions, with his most recent wins earning 73 and 78 DK points. He can occasionally clear 90 points though.

Klose either needs a knockout or wrestling domination to exceed value. He’s +450 to win ITD which is terrible, but he does have some power and Barboza has been knocked down four times in his last five fights..

Sight, I don’t know. I just don’t want this spot to kill me. It’s tough to bet on Klose winning by KO but if he’s going to be super low owned due to a poor finishing metric, I wouldn’t mind him.

He also can land 2-3 takedowns which gives him an additional path. You’re still not likely to get a ceiling performance but at least there are routes for Klose.

I doubt I’ll be clicking his name too much but I also am not expecting the public to be high on Klose. He’s a fine secondary target who is perhaps a tad sneaky, but I’m simply not comfortable taking a real stand.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Barboza by Decision (Confidence=Low)

Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Bryan Battle

Fight Odds: Battle -167, Ruziboev +142

Odds to end ITD: -155

DraftKings Salaries: Battle 8.6k, Ruziboev 7.6k

Weight Class: 185

*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe

Nursulton Ruziboev came into the UFC back in 2023 with a bang, scoring two knockouts. He then got ran up the flagpole a bit too quickly, losing Joaquin Buckley in May of last year, but he has rebounded with back-to-back wins – he’s 4-1 in the UFC and 36-9-2 as a pro. Battle won the 29th season of TUF at 185 lbs. back in 2022 but later that year, moved down to 170 where he’s been on an absolute tear. However, he missed weight for the 2nd time in his last outing where he’s now going back up to 185 lbs – he’s 7-1 in the UFC and 12-2 as a pro.  

The striking component: 

Ruziboev comes from a karate and hand to hand combat background. He’s a super lanky guy at 185, standing 6’5” with a 76” reach and falls more into the sniper category.    

He tends to be lower volume and largely throws in single shots, either with his straights, uppercuts or chopping lead kicks. But he has shown power components with 13 of his pro wins coming via strikes as he does throw with purpose and is accurate. Then it’s in the situations he hurts guys that he’ll start to really unload.   

Defensively, he hasn’t faced a ton of volume back his way but stands very upright and I have seen him dropped before where he gives some vibes of tall man’s defense. But he’s been durable in the sense that he hasn’t been KO’d since 2014, granted I don’t think he’s fought many quality strikers and a lot of his fights end quickly.  

Buckley is one of the exceptions where not much happened standing in the fight overall, with Buckly only landing 15 distance strikes in nine minutes, but Buckley dropped Ruziboev on one of those shots which proves some credence to what I referenced above. McConico did nothing and Ruziboev KO’d him and then recently against Stoltzfus, there was 6.5 minutes at distance and the distance counts were 24-19 in favor of Ruziboev.      

Overall, opponents have to be mindful of Ruziboev’s long-range weapons because he is dangerous. His style does drop opponent’s volume considerably but he’s also not really doing much either, so he’s a guy I still don’t trust in extending striking fights – especially when he starts facing better guys because his margins are so small.

Battle is a pretty long guy with a 77” reach and is a good striker.        

I would say his main core competency is that he mixes it up well between straight punches, hooks, knees, elbows and kicks. He only has four pro wins via KO/TKO but he has iced guys in three of his last five wins. 

I originally thought he was over-rated as a power striker, but it seemed the move down to 170 has translated much better for him in that department. 

He also does a good job of staying active throughout the course of his fights and keeps a higher pace – his pace has been a bit slower in some recent fights though. 

He’s also one of those guys that has shown he can be effective from the outside with his volume.         

Defensively, he’s not great but has shown components of keeping a higher guard and rolling with punches. But overall, I’d say he relies on his toughness more than anything in which his durability has held up. He’s never been finished via strikes as a pro however, he was hurt in his fight with Gore, got dropped by Fakhretdinov and was hurt by Fletcher more recently despite recovering in all three outings.    

I don’t think the guy is Lance Armstrong, but his cardio has shown to be a sound component of him winning his fights as he brings attritional elements to his game (whether that be volume/clinching) where guys will slow down/make mistakes and Battle will outlast them.

Overall, I don’t think Battle’s the greatest athlete in the world but he’s a tough guy with a good work rate (in a vacuum) who can fight in all three ranges standing.

How it plays out: Off the top, Ruziboev will be the taller guy here with a 4” height advantage but Battle will have a 1” reach edge. The striking is weird here because while Battle has shown much better pacing in the past, he was lower volume and struggled at distance in his last fight against Brown who’s another longer, mid-range/outside based striker. Granted Brown’s much more proven than Ruziboev but I still think Ruziboev’s style will drop Battle’s volume here. The other issue I see for Battle is that he stands very upright and can walk into shots at times which concerns me against a guy like Ruziboev – coupled with that we’ve seen Battle hurt a healthy amount despite being tough. Battle has power as well though and Ruziboev can be cracked, so I don’t think the power dynamic is one way here or anything. I feel where Battle will excel most is if he can turn this into a clinch fight and work Ruziboev from there.

The wrestling/grappling component: 

Ruziboev has some sambo experience and is a BJJ purple belt with 20 of his 36 pro wins coming via submission, so that’s how he primarily gets the job done.      

At the same time, his wrestling is largely poor both offensively and defensively. He gets taken down in the bulk of his fights and is one of those guys that doesn’t mind being on his back.      

He’s shown an aggressive guard to attack armbars, triangles and kimuras but there’s also been multiple other instances where he’s getting controlled extensively and getting his guard passed.      

He’s managed to get on top of certain guys in landing his own TDs off caught kicks or sweeping but his general top game isn’t very good in what I’ve seen – he can get swept or lose positions himself.     

Ruziboev is now training out of the Marquez team stateside though, so I do think that’s a good camp for him to be at to work on patching up some of his wrestling holes.      

He was able to work up on Buckley a few times but Buckley still went 4/4 at the end of the day and controlled Ruziboev for 5.5 minutes – nearly got him out late with GNP as well.

Most recently, Stoltzfus got went 2/5 and got 5 minutes of control and had a few submission attempts in there – Ruziboev got one himself and was able to reverse a few times but Stoltzfus technically won the wrestling there – honestly I think there’s a pretty viable argument Stoltzfus won – not sure how round 3 was unanimous for Ruziboev.

Overall, he’s a capable/dangerous grappler but for someone with 20 submission wins, I don’t think he’s anything special – especially considering how poor his wrestling has looked historically. From what we have to go on, he’s going to struggle against guys who know how to follow hips and posture correctly. 

I’m unsure of Battle’s wrestling/grappling credentials but he’s been up and down in this capacity.        

He’s got five wins via submissions (if you include his TUF fight w/ Petroski). Battle seems solid when he’s been able to get into top position and threaten chokes but he’s primarily looking to keep his fights standing as guys are usually the ones shooting on him.        

I’m still not 100% sure what to make of him as an offensive grappler but he’s now got submission wins over 3 brown belts – impressive – if I had to put a semi stamp on it, I would classify him as a more of an opportunistic grappler that’s good transitionally – you can’t really bank on Battle to come out and shoot 10 TDs though.        

He did get guard sub armbarred pretty quickly back on the regionals and Petroski did get his back in the 2nd on TUF, but Battle was able to reverse position as secure a sub of his own – Urbina did mount him briefly and Gore was able to threaten a standing ninja choke.        

He got ran into the ground by Fakhretdinov, getting controlled for nearly the entire fight.      

It is forgivable though as Fakhretdinov is a good wrestler and Battle had many pre-fight struggles – he was nursing a lower body injury and was sick during fight week getting hospitalized – hindsight, kind of crazy how he was cleared to fight.        

But outside of that fight, he’s shown a good get up game and defensive responsibility on the ground to avoid submissions despite not having very good TDD statistically.

How it plays out: The ground is also funky here because both guys aren’t the most willing wrestlers in the aggregate and have struggled with their TDD. Also, Battle’s two pro losses have had a ground component against him and similar things with Ruziboev as well where he’s getting grinded out. Ruziboev’s probably the more potent submission guy but Battle’s probably the more likely party to control top positions should he get there. Overall though, I don’t have a great read on the ground.

This is a really weird fight because while I think Battle is the more “functional” MMA fighter who also has the much better wins, Ruziboev’s frame and fighting style makes things tricky. I have real concerns about Battle getting clipped but Battle’s got some finish upside of his own and he’s the guy I trust more over the course of an extended fight so he’s my pick to win.

—

On DraftKings, I don’t think this is a straightforward matchup but I do lean toward Battle myself.

I think he’s the superior round winner of the two. He’s shown much better volume metrics, he’s tough, and I think he’s the better offensive wrestler as well. He sneakily tried pretty hard to wrestle with Randy Brown in his last fight, but Brown shut him out. Ruziboev offers nothing defensively and of the two, I think Brown has a much better wrestling expectation here.

That could lead to a strong score. If Battle is able to land 3+ takedowns, he could earn lots of control, land lots of ground strikes, and maybe even secure the finish. Even on the feet, Battle throws a lot and Ruziboev can be hurt.

Battle is +150 to win ITD which is pretty solid, but at 8.6k he may need the finish.

This one is tough. I am hesitant to fully buy into Battle in this spot because he may be very boom or bust, and we just saw him score 77 in a decision win. There’s also some variance with him moving back up to 185 and Ruziboev being generally offensively potent.

Still, I like Battle’s willingness to produce offense. I think he has sneaky wrestling upside here as well. His ITD metrics are decent. I consider him a decent secondary target in general and I personally wouldn’t mind to be above the field.

Ruziboev at 7.6k seems like a strong target for upside.

I just hate his process. He doesn’t land much volume and he hasn’t shown to be a willing wrestler either. So he just needs to knock Battle out, and good luck doing that.

Ruziboev is +255 to win ITD which is pretty good. Obviously, he’s offensively potent enough for me to respect his upside. Battle can be tagged.

I don’t think it’s a bad idea to have exposure to Ruziboev, just in case he can find the finish. I just hate his offensive production profile and I worry about the fight extending.

If Ruziboev was going to be a popular play this week, I’d be fine coming in underweight and betting against a quick finish. At the same time, he’s still an easy sprinkle for the price and finishing upside on paper.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Battle by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)

Karine Silva vs. Dione Barbosa

Fight Odds: Silva -215, Barbosa +181

Odds to end ITD: +185

DraftKings Salaries: Silva 8.8k, Barbosa 7.4k

Weight Class: 125

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

We have a rematch here between Karine Silva and Dione Barbosa. These two fought back in 2019 on the regionals where Barbosa actually won by unanimous decision. I actually couldn’t find that fight. However, it was over six years ago so I don’t put a ton of stock into it.

Silva booked her ticket to the UFC by winning on the Contender Series back in October of 2021. It was kind of a weird fight. Silva was outlanded in strikes 27-12 and then randomly locked in a guillotine to win the fight at the beginning of round 2. Silva landed some power shots early, but she was clearly gassing and even got taken down and held down for a bit. I legit think she would have lost that fight had it not been for the random guillotine. 

Silva then submitted Botelho, Souza, and Moroz in round one of each matchup.

Early finishes seem to be a constant theme for Silva. She is 18-5 and all of her wins except one have come by finish in round 1 or 2. She has been finished a few times herself in round 1, and lost by decision coincidently to Dione Barbosa on the regionals.

Silva generally looks like an early finish or bust fighter to me. However, she did at least take a decision in her last win against Ariane Lipski. Silva generally lost the striking exchanges and avoided them altogether. However, she landed 5 takedowns and controlled Lipski for over 7 minutes. Lipski presents no threat off her back though and doesn’t resist there at all to tire opponents out. So although it was good to see Silva display another path to victory with takedowns and control over the duration against Lipski, I want to see her do it again against someone who can resist a little more. She wasn’t able to do that against Araujo.

Silva is certainly dangerous early though. She is a classic Brazilian dual threat finisher as she has some power on the feet and submissions on the mat. She can also likely out control weaker opponents over the duration.

As a striker, Silva seems too low volume to me but I do think she is capable of hurting girls or competing in the first round or so. I just don’t trust stand up knockouts in WMMA as a consistent win method especially at the UFC level. I question Silva’s ability to land volume over the duration.

As a grappler, that is where Silva is best. I do think she is dangerous with her submissions early in fights.

The issue is that Silva’s wrestling doesn’t seem the best and so many of her submissions are non-process and non-predictive as they generally come by guillotine, armbar, knee bar, etc. In other words, her submissions come when she doesn’t have top position which are much harder submissions to predict and obtain when fighters get steps up in competition. In contrast, Gillian Robertson gets process submissions from top position like rear naked chokes and arm triangles. Those are easier to predict and to obtain at this level.

I mean look, Silva can still submit girls in the UFC. I also think she can land takedowns and control average to below-average grapplers at this level. So she is clearly UFC level and can win fights here.

I still just have questions with Silva’s game though. I am pretty certain that her striking is not great. She has also been taken and held down for entire rounds before and has yet to defend a takedown in the UFC, now facing five attempts. I just don’t totally trust her.

Silva will be taking on Dione Barbosa. Barbosa fights out of Brazil and is 8-3 professionally. She comes from a Judo and BJJ background and holds a black belt in both arts. She has shown in her career that she is a decent takedown artist and submission grappler, and has three submission wins in her career. I still hate Judo takedowns though and consider that style to be flawed because of its reliance on head and arm throws.

Barbosa booked her ticket to the UFC on the Contender Series by submitting her opponent in round one. She then fought Ernesta Kareckaite in her UFC debut and won a very close decision. 

Barbosa looked good early against Kareckaite and showed some power on the feet, and hurt Kareckaite and showed her grappling and takedowns early. Eventually though, Barbosa slowed down considerably and lost the latter half of the fight easily. She gassed, couldn’t land takedowns anymore, and got outstruck at distance 44-33 at range. She even ended up on bottom herself. She also was taken down and held down by Miranda Maverick for over 8 minutes. Her get-ups look poor.

The Kareckaite and Maverick fights were kind of bad looks for Barbosa if I am being honest. I do think Barbosa is still a decent grappler early, and I think she can beat weak grapplers on the mat which she showed against Belbita in her last win. I also like her explosiveness and power on the feet early. However, her striking is still pretty weak and her cardio is poor, and I don’t trust her long term. She also can clearly be held down.

As far as this matchup goes, this is a bit of a mess. I think both girls can land takedowns and get held down on their backs. At this point, I probably trust the get ups of Silva more which is one of the reasons why I am going to pick Silva to win. If Barbosa gets put on her back, I am not sure she gets up.

I also like Silva a bit because she is probably more dangerous and more likely to win inside the distance. I think Silva is a little more dangerous especially as a submission grappler.

I still don’t trust Silva. Barbosa is probably a better processed striker overall and could land takedowns on Silva who hasn’t even defended a takedown yet in the UFC. Barbosa literally has already beat Silva as well. Furthermore, Silva is pretty reliant on early submissions which may be nullified by Barbosa who is a credentialed grappler herself.

This is a mess man. I don’t trust either girl. I still absolutely hate the get-ups of Barbosa so that is why Silva is my pick to win.

—

On DraftKings, I think Silva is OK but it’s tough to play a lot of her at 8.8k.

If she doesn’t finish Barbosa early, her ceiling seems questionable. I would say that she additionally has a path to takedowns and control, but in her matchup against Lipski where she landed five takedowns, and earned 8.5 minutes of control, she still only scored 83 DK points.

Silva is +225 to win ITD and I probably wouldn’t bet on her to finish Barbosa quickly, who I think is relatively skillful.

I don’t completely hate Silva based on her profile though. And she does have a path to landing takedowns. We could get low-level WMMA weirdness where Silva is suddenly approaching 100 points with some grappling domination late. That hasn’t been her M.O. though.

Silva is fine. I would certainly rather pay up to the next tier of fighter but if I cannot afford to, she’s in the mix within this 8k range and at least carries some grappling/finishing equity on paper.

Barbosa I like a little bit at 7.4k.

I’m skeptical of her game but she already beat Silva, and has a path to landing takedowns, or winning striking exchanges. It simply would not be surprising if this fight was competitive, and if you get a win from Barbosa at 7.4k, you’d want her on some rosters.

There are still ceiling questions here. She is only +700 to win ITD and she only scored 77 points in her UFC debut win. But that’s still 10x at 7.4k, so I’d take it.

I don’t have a lot of faith in Barbosa, and I think there are superior ceiling options in this price range. Barbosa may be among my favorites for floor, and for pure chances to win the fight though.

I consider her a fine secondary target overall and would be happy to mix in some exposure. I do understand prioritizing the finishers priced nearby though.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Silva by Decision (Confidence=Low)

Alibi Idiris vs. Joseph Morales

Fight Odds: Idiris -420, Morales +320

Odds to end ITD: NA

DraftKings Salaries: NA (Projected Idiris 9.4k, Morales 6.8k)

Weight Class: 125

Next up is our flyweight finale of The Ultimate Fighter, between Alibi Idiris and Joseph Morales.

Idiris is 10-0 professionally with four wins by knockout and one by submission, and he looks like a decent fighter who is fairly well-rounded.

Idiris fights out of his home gym in Kazakhstan, and he was the champion of his local regional org called Naiza.

Idiris is a pretty aggressive fighter, and he likes to push a pace on opponents. One problem is that he’s not a super physical or powerful athlete though, and so I believe he’ll often need pacing to earn an edge on a per-round basis.

Generally, Idiris seems like a fine striker. He can box and he can throw kicks. He stance switches a lot and he also likes to throw a lot of spinning and flying techniques, which I don’t love. Again, he doesn’t carry real KO power in my opinion and I definitely think he’s liable to lose rounds when opponents can land the bigger shots.

Idiris will also mix in his wrestling, of which I’d say he’s pretty solid. His lack of physicality will limit his ceiling for sure, but he had a lot of success wrestling with body locks on TUF, where he was able to transition and earn control.

He doesn’t carry many submission wins in his career and overall I wouldn’t say he’s a super dangerous finisher. But it does seem like he can dominate weaker grapplers on the mat, and his ground-and-pound is decent.

In his first fight on TUF, Idiris dominated Yokubov to a two-round decision win. The pair boxed at range for a little bit, and Idiris was successful in tagging Yokubov with some distance-finding kicks.

Eventually, Idiris went to his body lock takedowns and had a lot of success, landing multiple takedowns in the first round and taking dominant position. He found more success with it in round two, and was able to comfortably win both rounds with control and ground-and-pound.

In his semifinal fight, Idiris won by TKO late in the first round against Echeverria. Idiris took the center of the cage and played a pressure boxing game, which was semi-competitive as Idiris was throwing more volume, but Echeverria was throwing the much harder shots.

Idiris would occasionally look to wrestle but wasn’t having much success. Eventually he did find the takedown late in the round, on what was probably his fifth attempt. Echeverria tried to scramble up shortly thereafter and Idiris connected on a flying knee, which dropped Echeverria and led to the stoppage.

Clearly, Idiris needs the wrestling upside in his matchups to really make a statement. I do think he can win striking based rounds in the UFC with distance management, speed, and pressure. I’m skeptical of his finishing ability.

When he’s also the superior wrestler, he’s got potential to shoot double digit takedown attempts over three rounds. He lacks the pure athleticism to smash good wrestlers, but his pacing is decent and when he establishes control, he’s semi-dangerous.

I think Idiris clearly lacks ceiling upside at the UFC level but he also might be a solid round winner, capable of competing with the mid-levels of the division.

I had to do a double take when I saw Joseph Morales fighting, and after confirmation, yes this is the same Joseph Morales who debuted in the UFC back in 2017 as a 22-year-old.

He’s now 12-2 professionally at age 30, and he’s earned two wins by knockout and six by submission. He trains out of Team Alpha Male.

Morales came into the UFC as a submission grappler, with a very limited arsenal. He won by club-and-sub in his UFC debut, but was then pounded out by Deiveson Figueiredo in his following matchup. No shame.

In his third bout in 2018, Morales gave up seven takedowns to Eric Shelton and lost a split decision where he attempted a bunch of submissions in the process. He then didn’t fight until 2021, where he debuted in Cage Warriors and picked up a couple of wins.

On TUF, Morales won a super close first matchup against Rodriguez. Morales took him down and got easy back control to comfortably win the first round. The pair largely struck in round two, which Morales ultimately edged, but not clearly enough to take the decision.

In the final round, it was actually Rodriguez who landed a takedown and took the back of Morales, which was a pretty bad sign considering Morales’ strength as a grappler.

In his semifinal fight against Henrique, Morales won with a quick RNC. The pair boxed for a couple of minutes before Morales shot a takedown. He secured it, took the back, and immediately locked up the RNC.

To me, clearly, this is how Morales will need to win fights at the UFC level.

As a striker, I don’t see much hope for Morales. He is actually a competent boxer, but that competency is only going to allow him to hang around until he can dominate the grappling exchanges.

He isn’t particularly high volume. He’s not super powerful. He doesn’t throw a ton of kicks. I don’t think he can win rounds at a high rate on the feet.

I actually think Morales has leveled up his wrestling since his first UFC stint. His offensive wrestling is adequate, and he can shoot a fine double leg. He can land the occasional takedown.

If he doesn’t take the back though, I don’t see a ton of upside in his game. All of Morales’ subs are either RNCs or triangles. He’s not a major control fighter otherwise.

The other issue is his defensive wrestling isn’t good enough. In his first stint, he had zero defensive wrestling. Now, I’d say he’s a bit better, but he still gave up a takedown and a back take to a boxer in his first bout.

If Morales can continue to level up his takedown defense, he’ll have a better shot. But my guess is that it will not hold up, and I don’t think he’s dangerous enough from his back to win via sub consistently.

With that said, he’s a long fighter and is somewhat crafty. He’ll throw the occasional guillotine or triangle in transition, or from his back. Opponents will have to mind their Ps and Qs.

I just think Morales lacks real round winning equity outside of top control, and without that leading directly to subs, I don’t think he can sustain wins in the UFC this time around.

As far as the matchup, I favor Idiris who I consider to be a much better round winner.

Idiris will never be at a big physical advantage, so on the feet, he may not dominate Morales. But I’d say Idiris is faster, far more diverse, and the better kicker for sure. He likely throws more volume than Morales, and over three rounds, I would expect Idiris to get the better of the exchanges.

Also, I think Idiris is the better wrestler. I haven’t seen a ton of his takedown defense which is the main thing to give me pause, but Morales isn’t a great scrambler so unless Idiris gives up back control, he should be ok to defend.

I’m not sure whether he will choose to wrestle offensive or not here, as I could see him believing his primary advantage is on the feet. But if he does wrestle at a high rate against Morales, I would expect him to land takedowns.

I do give Morales a chance here, but it’s mostly contingent on Idiris having much worse defensive grappling than I expect. Morales is good enough to land 1-2 takedowns, and if he can immediately take the back or Idiris chooses to play guard, maybe Morales can win. Or maybe he can lock up a transitional sub.

I still think Idiris has far more wrestling control upside than Morales does, just based on the historic defensive wrestling issues we’ve seen from Morales. All in all, I will take Idiris to win the fight and I wouldn’t be shocked if he wins convincingly.

—

On DraftKings, I expect Idiris to be slotted between Hooper and Susurkaev, which will make him a difficult option to prioritize.

I actually quite like Idiris’ wrestling upside, though the bigger concern is whether he will actually choose to wrestle. He might not need to.

In that case, I wouldn’t want much exposure to Idiris. Susurkaev seems like the far safer finishing option above, and Hooper is the better pace grappler below. Idiris may get squeezed in this range and may be semi-contrarian, which is fair but would be mildly intriguing.

I think I’d have to prioritize those other names, but I don’t mind Idiris as a pivot play. Susurkaev won’t smash if the fight extends, and Hooper isn’t guaranteed to win. I at least believe Idiris is capable of 3-5 takedowns and if he can pair it with a finish, he’ll carry real upside.

Perhaps that outcome is more of a hope than what’s most realistic, and ultimately, it will be tough for me to click on Idiris very often. I don’t think he’s out of play though and may have a sneaky wrestling path, so pivoting on occasion feels like a viable strategy.

Morales should be super cheap and will carry upside with his style.

If he wins, it will come on the mat, and he could exceed value and contend for the optimal. I am open to the idea that he can land 1-2 takedowns.

Still, he’s a bigger dog and there are so many live options in the 7k range, that it doesn’t make sense to take a major risk here. I don’t mind Morales as a pure punt given his grappling profile, but I don’t think he’s going to win and mostly just consider him a dart throw.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Idiris by Decision (Confidence=Medium)