UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira (3/7/26)
Note: Please read the full analysis, that is much more important than who I pick to win. The confidence relates to my pick to win, not the path to victory. Picks are NOT bets. Matchup breakdowns are written by Brett unless otherwise noted, and all DraftKings analysis is written by Brett. Both Technical Tim and Gordon Clark will also contribute to matchup breakdowns.
MAIN CARD
Max Holloway vs. Charles Oliveira
Fight Odds: Holloway -205, Oliveira +175
Odds to end ITD: -225
DraftKings Salaries: Holloway 8.8k, Oliveira 7.4k
Weight Class: 155
The UFC’s BMF belt is on the line as two legends in Max Holloway and Charles Oliveira square off in the lightweight division.
This isn’t the first time Holloway and Oliveira have competed against one another, but this rematch will certainly feature drastically different versions of the two.
Back in 2015, Holloway defeated Oliveira by first round TKO with what seemed to be an apparent suffered by Oliveira from an early takedown attempt. Holloway went on to compete for the featherweight title a year later, and the rest is history. Oliveira was in the midst of dropping four fights in six tries, before turning around an 11-fight win streak that led to a lightweight title.
Now having cemented their places among the best in history of the sport, this BMF championship matchup feels well deserved and fan-friendly, if nothing else.
From a statistical point of view, Holloway is nearly unmatched and I would argue is one of the best fighters to ever compete in Mixed Martial Arts. He’s a generational volume striker, and lands 7.20 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 4.74 per minute with a 59 percent defensive rate.
Holloway has reached historic ceilings of 445, 290 and 230 sig. strikes landed over 25 minutes, and he’s nearly impossible to outpace over the duration of a fight. He doesn’t have insane knockout power, but Holloway can absolutely light you up and hurt you with attrition.
Occasionally, we’ve seen some strikers have success against him, most notably Alexander Volkanovski who was able to point strike from distance and avoid brawling exchanges. Poirier was able to land the bigger shots on Holloway in their second matchup in 2019.
Most concerning was seeing Ilia Topuria finally knock Holloway out in their featherweight championship match in 2024. And it’s worth noting, Holloway was again knocked down by Poirier in his most recent lightweight fight, though he won convincingly.
Holloway doesn’t seem to be slowing down much and volume striking is one metric that is fairly predictable. In his last two five round fights, Holloway has landed 198 and 181 sig. strikes, and I very much trust him to pace again this week.
What concerns me is the durability, because that can go fast as you age and take damage. Holloway has taken a lot of damage over the years, though he’s one of the most durable fighters ever. Seeing him dropped twice in a row is a very bad sign for the future, though I’d still label him extremely durable.
Simply put, there’s a bit more variance now in my mind with Holloway in striking exchanges than there was a handful of years back. I’d no longer be surprised to see him hurt, and at some point, it will happen again. His elite volume ceiling still gives him an incredibly high floor from a win equity standpoint and still makes him among the best round winners in the sport.
Charles Oliveira has found a different path to success, becoming the UFC’s all-time leader in both finishes and submissions.
He’s always been an elite submission grappler, but he’s leveled up both his striking and wrestling in recent years, where I’d consider him a real threat everywhere the fight takes place. More importantly, we’ve seen Oliveira fight through adversity far better than he did early in his career, which has allowed him to remain dangerous for longer.
Of Oliveira’s 24 UFC wins, only 3 have come by decision, so the majority of his success is tied directly to his finishing equity, which shouldn’t be a surprise given his all-time finishing records. But it does still put him at a disadvantage on a per-round basis, which is the trouble in this matchup.
On the feet, Oliveira is a dangerous muay-thai striker with the ability to box and kick. He can land with damage. But he cannot keep up with Holloway from a volume standpoint.
Oliveira lands 3.35 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 3.24 per minute with a 49 percent striking defense. He’s topped out at 88 sig. strikes landed. He’s also been hurt numerous times, and has been knocked down by four of his last eight opponents. Topuria badly knocked him out in their lightweight championship matchup in 2025, and I expect this trend to continue as well.
If Oliveira and Holloway are to strike, Oliveira can have singular moments. He can land effectively. He could hurt Holloway. I do not think he can land strikes at a higher rate than Holloway for a full 5 minutes, let alone 25 minutes.
What’s more likely is that Oliveira has some initial success, but starts to fall behind Holloway pretty dramatically to the point that Holloway may tee off him in the latter rounds. I think it’s almost more likely that Oliveira gets hurt and doesn’t survive a full 25 minutes standing, rather than him making this a truly competitive affair.
Where Oliveira is clearly better is on the mat, and I think he’ll need to get this fight to the mat to win. He lands 2.22 takedowns per 15 minutes while Holloway defends at 83 percent. Holloway is a skilled grappler but if Oliveira can get on top with any consistency, he can advance position and threaten a submission.
It’s very difficult to project that though. Holloway has strong takedown defense on paper, and he has not allowed even 2 minutes of control to any opponent over his last 11 fights. Topuria took him down twice and only earned 45 seconds of control. Volkanovski took him down three times and earned 1:26 of control.
I do think Oliveira can land 1-3 takedowns, and earn brief periods of control. Without a submission, I really don’t think it matters. Holloway is too skilled on the feet that it’s impossible to project Oliveira to earn 10-15 minutes of control here, win three rounds with it and survive the duration.
Honestly, this probably comes down to a big moment. He needs to rock Holloway and jump on a choke like Poirier tried to do. He needs to land a takedown and instantly transition to a d’arce or RNC. That’s the most clear path in my mind.
Ultimately, while I think Oliveira is an excellent fighter and still a very dangerous one, I have to pick Holloway here. He’s a far superior round winning striker and Oliveira has still struggled to compete in these kinds of matchups. Holloway historically limits the grappling upside of skilled opponents as well. Oliveira is still live for a big swing in momentum and a fight finish but most often, I’ll pick Holloway to survive, beat him up and probably get a TKO stoppage.
—
On DraftKings, this is our only five round fight of the evening and it will be an important one from a fantasy perspective.
According to MMA Labs, Holloway is averaging 17 DK points per minute while Oliveira is averaging 16.8 per minute, which excludes fight winning bonuses. Over 25 minutes, both will extrapolate to ~115 points in a decision win.
If there’s concern on either side, it’s for Holloway who has limited grappling equity and early finishing potential. If he simply lands 120 strikes in five rounds, he would score 78 DK points and bust. If he lands 80 strikes in a third round knockout, he would score 87 DK points and bust.
We have seen him score in the 80s twice in five-round decisions, so it’s far from impossible. My best guess is that if this situation occurs, it would be from Oliveira having real success early, putting Holloway in trouble, and taking him down. Perhaps he gasses out badly by the third round and gets finished before Holloway can really pour on the strikes.
From a projection point of view, I think this more likely is a spot where Holloway scores 100+ points and contends for the optimal at 8.8k. Oliveira is willing to brawl, can eat strikes, and can be hurt. If he cannot have real success early, there’s nothing stopping Holloway from landing an enormous number of strikes.
Oliveira is also yielding 99 points on average to opponents when they win, and Holloway is +105 to win ITD.
There are enough finishers on this slate to where things could go wrong, but Holloway should carry one of the higher floor/ceiling combinations on the slate in a win, and at 8.8k will be a very strong target in all formats.
I certainly expect he’ll be popular, potentially pushing above 50 percent owned, but it’s arguably justified. He’s an easy cash game option and an arguable priority in tournaments. You can choose to pivot away on occasion but I’ll likely end up with moderate-heavy exposure to Holloway given the matchup and his historic scoring metrics.
Oliveira at 7.4k feels even more likely to be optimal in a win given his style and path to victory.
He’s more dependent on a finish, and grappling, and early success. He’s averaging 97.1 points per win and 100ish feels very reasonable for a win this week as well. Oliveira is +235 to win ITD which is one of the best ITD lines for dogs on this slate.
More importantly, at 7.4k, it’s an easier bar to clear. If he gets a random 2nd round submission with little output, and scores 92 like we saw in his last matchup, that could still easily be optimal at this price tag. And he has 110+ point upside if things swing in the right direction too.
I’m not sure Oliveira will be pure chalk, but he’s going to be semi-popular at 7.4k given the name value, and historic ceiling. I’d label him a solid secondary option this week.
Personally, I’m not planning on heavy exposure though and I’d almost lean away from targeting him often as one way to be different, and force in some lower owned options nearby. Obviously Oliveira is capable of the upset and still warrants near-field exposure with a larger portfolio, but I don’t mind leaning into Holloway a bit and hoping we get the result we want.
Oliveira still carries low 30s percent win equity (early in the week) and will probably sim out to be optimal 20-30 percent of the time. It’s fair to stay within those margins to be safe, but again, I don’t hate taking a little extra risk with Holloway this week.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Holloway by TKO, RD 3 (Confidence=Medium)
Caio Borralho vs. Reinier de Ridder
Fight Odds: Borralho -250, de Ridder +210
Odds to end ITD: +135
DraftKings Salaries: Borralho 9.2k, de Ridder 7k
Weight Class: 185
Two recent top contenders Caio Borralho and Reinier de Ridder are coming off main event losses, and make for a very fair pairing this weekend in what should be a decent middleweight contest.
I’ve had mixed feelings about Borralho since he debuted in the UFC back in 2022 but his record has been stellar, and he’d earned seven consecutive wins to start his promotional career before falling short against Nassourdine Imavov in September.
Borralho is very well-rounded, but takes a more cautious approach than I would like. He fights out of a sideways stance and plays very well at range, and he does his best to limit exchanges. He’s defensively sound and able to limit his opponent’s attack, which I love, but the problem is that he doesn’t produce enough offense of his own to run away with rounds.
Thus far, Borralho is landing 3.44 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 2.50 per minute with a 60 percent defensive rate. Those are honestly pretty phenomenal defensive metrics and even in his recent loss, Borralho only allowed 81 sig. strikes over five rounds.
The problem is that he only landed 61 of his own in five rounds, which is just a pathetically low rate. Imavov doesn’t absorb strikes at a high rate either, but the point remains that Borralho just doesn’t throw strikes at a high volume and it’s likely to set him up for failure against certain opponents.
The reason I’ve had mixed feelings is because prior to the Imavov matchup, Borralho did land 153 sig. strikes against Cannonier in five rounds. He threw nearly 100 more strikes over 25 minutes in that matchup than he did against Imavov. He is capable of doing more.
Additionally, he’s knocked down his opponent in each of his past three wins, though he was only able to TKO one of them (Paul Craig). He carries some power.
Ultimately, I feel Borralho is very capable at distance, and effective, but he thrives in slow paced matchups where he can do just a little bit more than his opponent and neutralize the pace.
Borralho is also a Judo and BJJ black belt, and very capable on the mat. Again, he doesn’t wrestle at a high rate and is only landing 1.28 takedowns per 15 minutes. He has not landed a takedown in any of his past four matchups.
In some of those matchups, he has tried, and we saw five takedown attempts against Imavov, but in others, it’s not a priority. I think he’s a solid wrestler and grappler, with back-taking ability but his wrestling does seem to be capped against the upper echelon of the division.
His defensive grappling has mostly been fine, but he had that one weird matchup against Makhmud Muradov in 2022 where he got taken down twice and was controlled on his back. He also tried to jump guillotines there. He still reversed position and won the fight but it was sketchy. His TDD stands at 76 percent currently.
I personally think Borralho could still be a future champ because he does have a well-rounded style, and he’s a pretty strong round winner with his ability to limit damage. But it’s crucial that he pushes more of a striking and wrestling pace because 15 sig. strikes per 5 minutes is just not going to cut it.
Reinier de Ridder is coming off a super ugly loss to Brendan Allen, which fortunately, I was on Allen as an underdog in that spot.
De Ridder still had some early takedown success, but he could not sustain it, and he gassed out badly, essentially quitting after the fourth round.
Since the fight, he’s come out and said he’s been suffering from some pretty severe health issues that stemmed from him training too hard, cutting too much weight and fighting too often. He said he couldn’t walk up stairs without getting tired, he couldn’t train, he couldn’t recover.
Apparently he’s feeling better now, but it’s difficult to have confidence that de Ridder will suddenly become a cardio machine. At least he is fighting in a three-round contest this time around and honestly, Borralho doesn’t push the kind of pace to give me great concern.
Stylistically, I’ve never been exceptionally high on de Ridder. He excels as a grinding grappler and submission threat, and more than 63 percent of his fight time has come from the clinch or on the ground.
His biggest win thus far has come against the former champion Robert Whittaker, but I didn’t think he looked phenomenal there either. He wore Whittaker down with body shots and earned control on the mat and in the clinch, but Whittaker had his moments too.
He hurt de Ridder badly in the third round and nearly finished the fight with ground-and-pound, but de Ridder survived. Whittaker also had early success, but really wasn’t able sustain a striking pace, and he could not stop de Ridder from clinching with him.
Whittaker did a decent job defending takedowns though, only allowing two on 15 attempts by de Ridder. He gave up his back on one of those occasions and lost one clean round, but otherwise, gave up more control in the clinch than on the mat.
De Ridder has a background in Judo and is a capable wrestler as well, with a pretty strong top game. He is a solid submission grappler and has picked up 14 submissions in his pro career, including five (or more) by RNC.
He’s pretty skilled at taking the back and has a nice choke series in general that will continue to be a threat. He can also overcommit on submissions and lose positions at times, which I don’t love.
On the feet, I still consider de Ridder to be pretty mediocre. Most of his regional fights take place on the mat and on the few occasions where he’s been forced to stand, he’s been beaten up or knocked out.
He’s fought very little distance time in the UFC thus far and even his striking success against both Whittaker and Nickal was primarily from the clinch. I wouldn’t trust him at distance for an extended period and he may still be a defensive liability there, but he’s at least competent offensively in bursts and his striking can still be a factor as long as he’s in control of the grappling exchanges as well.
From my perspective, Borralho is better at distance and should be a moderate favorite while the fight takes place at distance.
Surprisingly, these two actually have very comparable distance metrics so I don’t want to undersell de Ridder’s chances, but he’s only fought 36 percent of his fight time at distance while Borralho has fought there 64 percent of the time.
Perhaps Borralho just won’t throw enough volume and rounds will be competitive by default, but Borralho is far better defensively and I think has some damage upside here as well.
I expect de Ridder to really need to close the distance, and work from the clinch and on the mat to win. It’s plausible, but I don’t view de Ridder as a phenomenal wrestler. Even if he can take Borralho down, Borralho is a BJJ black belt and should be able to survive there just fine.
Early on in the fight, I could still see de Ridder having success. Borralho has been taken down before, and de Ridder is physical enough to give him a test. Perhaps he could advance position and threaten a choke. He’s coming off getting reversed by Allen 2x though, and Meerschaert reversed him too. I think it’s much more likely that any position de Ridder acquires won’t lead to major success.
Conversely, de Ridder is defending takedowns at 50 percent. He just gave up 11:39 of control to Allen in 20 minutes of fight time. Borralho probably can have wrestling success here if he wants. Maybe it doesn’t lead to a submission but it could certainly lead to control, some ground-and-pound, and clear round wins.
It ultimately feels like a thin path for de Ridder and to me Borralho is the clear pick.
With that said, I’m not convinced Borralho dominates either. He may not wrestle and he may not throw a ton of distance strikes. If he’s fighting at a 60-strike decision pace, de Ridder could hang around by doing some clinch work and maybe landing an early takedown.
I just view Borralho as having more paths to victory. He’s better at distance. He’s probably the better wrestler and grappler outright as well. I think he has more damage and finishing equity. Pacing is one thing that could let him down, or perhaps de Ridder snowballing early grappling success into a couple of competitive round wins. I have to lean toward Borralho overall and I would view this as a pretty disappointing result if he failed to win.
—
On DraftKings, Borralho is priced up to 9.2k and I expect him to be a contrarian target this week.
The public will definitely want to pay up to Johnson at the top, and there’s a long string of upside options priced in the upper 8k, lower 9k range. Borralho is averaging 89 points in wins on DraftKings, and has one of the lower DK points/5 min marks on this slate.
He’s also never topped 80.5 DK points in any of his four, three-round decisions, and is only lined +200 to win ITD here. It’s difficult to come up with a clear case on why Borralho is deserving of heavy ownership at 9.2k.
The reality is, Borralho isn’t a priority, for the reasons I just explained. There are many more clear finishing options priced both above and below Borralho this week, and historically, he hasn’t smashed. It’s going to result in a lower public ownership and therefore put him into the contrarian category.
I do think he has some merit as a contrarian option, specifically because de Ridder yields points. He can be hurt on the feet, he can be taken down, and there’s some domination upside for Borralho if de Ridder gets hurt/tired.
I wouldn’t be completely surprised, for example, to see a 2nd round TKO type of win for Borralho with some ground-and-pound, and perhaps that could lead to a 100-110 type of DK score. I do still find that outcome difficult to count on.
If you’re playing 1-3 lineups, Borralho likely isn’t going to find his way onto many or any of them, and from a projection standpoint that’s probably correct. However, if you find yourself in need of an option between 9.3k-8.9k, Borralho is at least viable as a differentiator considering the boom/bust nature of some other higher owned targets. He’ll still likely need a finish to produce a ceiling but de Ridder has some vulnerabilities in his style. I don’t mind a sprinkle of Borralho this week for the purpose of being different.
De Ridder is priced at 7k and contains upside in his style, but the question still becomes how often you think he is going to win.
He’s currently showing low 30s win equity as a +210 underdog, and in win cases, he will project well. He’s averaging 109.7 DK points per win thus far.
I still have skepticism. Borralho does not absorb strikes at a high rate, and he’s not easy to grapple. I think it’s much more likely that de Ridder weasels out two rounds rather than dominates on the mat and finishes, and therefore, his ceiling is still capped. He is only +500 to win ITD.
However, if any grappling is involved, even in a weaseling decision, you can argue it’s enough to exceed value and contend for the optimal.
I’m definitely not going to be high on de Ridder this week, and I think there’s some merit to coming in quite low on him given the style matchup, hoping he loses. If I had to lean in any direction, it would be that.
At 7k, using him as a low-end secondary play is still justifiable given the savings and stylistic upside, but de Ridder is ultimately just a low-end target this week.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Borralho by Decision (Confidence=Medium)
Rob Font vs. Raul Rosas Jr.
Fight Odds: Rosas -245, Font +210
Odds to end ITD: +140
DraftKings Salaries: Rosas 8.7k, Font 7.5k
Weight Class: 155
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
I am looking forward to watching 21-year old Raul Rosas Jr. get back in the cage this weekend and he has a tough test against veteran Rob Font.
I don’t mind Rosas Jr. He gets a lot of shit from some people. However, he is young and developing. I don’t think he will be a champion or anything personally. However, he is a pretty decent grappler and back taker, and he will absolutely wreck below-average grapplers on the mat.
Rosas is basically a pure grappler. He has some decent takedown variety, and he just has a knack for finding the back. He will pop in triangles and hold position or threaten with a RNC. It is a good process of winning fights.
Rosas lands 4.01 takedowns per 15 minutes. Rosas doesn’t really look to strike much. He just looks to limit engagements and get this grappling going. I like that he actually goes for his takedowns too. He doesn’t mess around and just goes to his path to victory.
Rosas definitely has some issues though. First. he is a liability on the feet. He knocked out Terrence Mitchell, but make no mistake, I basically have zero confidence in his striking. He is going to get wrecked standing at some point again. Second, he is just not super physical and will just fail to throw around seasoned and strong grapplers. I don’t think Rosas is THAT bad with his physicality. I like his physicality more than say Chase Hooper or something. However, he is just a young kid and is still growing and putting real weight on. He needs to fill out his frame.
Rosas also slowed down vs Rodriguez. I don’t give him that much shit for that matchup though. Rodriguez is a pretty good fighter and anti grappler. I mean Rosas still had a lot of success against Rodriguez in round 1. Rodriguez was just a little too much for Rosas later in the fight which is forgivable. I dislike that Rosas only landed 2 significant strikes in that fight. 2 significant strikes landed in 15 minutes is just really bad.
We also saw Rosas drop rounds to Aoriqileng and Vince Morales in decision victories. He was generally able to out grapple both of them enough to win but he did struggle in pockets to secure takedowns.
I just think Rosas is going to have some bumps and losses going forward. However, he will feast off low tier grapplers in the UFC.
Rosas will be taking Rob Font. Font is generally a good fighter. He fights at a high pace and has a ton of offense in his game. I generally consider him a striker and he has a great jab that compliments his length. Font lands 5.36 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.70 in return. He defends strikes at 57 percent. He has good metrics and is a solid striker. He also has reasonable pop and is capable of hurting guys.
Font is also a reasonably capable grappler. He lands 0.74 takedowns per 15 minutes and is capable of landing some takedowns and offense on the mat from time to time.
I have generally always really liked Font as a fighter. I have cashed on him as an underdog against Yanez and Moraes. However, with all of that being said, I really do think he has looked off in some fights in his recent run. His competition has been stellar. However, he is getting badly hurt in many fights. He also gave up 22 takedowns in his last five fights and is only defending takedowns at 43 percent now.
Font looks declined which makes sense given he is now 39 years old which is an advanced age for a bantamweight. I think my confidence in him has just generally decreased.
I won’t completely write him off yet as the upset win over Kyler Phillips and Jean Matsumoto were pleasant surprises. I also thought his actual get-ups against Matusomoto looked good even though he let up takedowns.
In a matchup vs Rosas, Font should have the striking edge regardless though. If this stays standing, Font should win the exchanges and maybe even overwhelm Rosas at some point. I really think Font is live for this reason.
The issue is Font needs to not get outgrappled. I do think Rosas will land takedowns especially early. It is really a question of whether or not Font can work back up. In some fights, Font’s get-ups have been horrendous like against Sandhagen. Then his get ups honestly looked strong vs Matusomoto.
I am going to go with Rosas here but I do think this is a sketchy one. Rosas has had close 29-28 decision wins lately in similar matchups against inferior fighters to Font. My guess is we see a close fight where Rosas has some occasional grappling success but occasional stretches of struggle.
—
On DraftKings, this is a kind of sketchy fight in my opinion.
Rosas is priced at 8.7k and he is always in play. He is a grappling dependent fighter and has potential to land 3-5 takedowns and earn 10+ minutes of control.
Even in a sketchy win, Rosas can score near 100 points, and we’ve seen him score 106-111 in submission wins too.
His recent decisions haven’t been fantasy smashes though, and he’s only put up 76 and 86 DK points. He’s just so limited from a sig. strike perspective that we really need a finish, or real control domination for him to rack up non-sig. strikes.
The difficulty with this matchup is that Font has terrible takedown defense. We have to project Rosas to land takedowns early, and also likely land 3-5 over 15 minutes. By default, it gives Rosas a decent floor and ceiling.
However, man it’s tough to be sure Rosas goes out there and dominates. Font has only been subbed once in the UFC by guillotine specialist Pedro Munhoz. Rosas is only +245 to win ITD.
I still consider him viable because of the grappling equity and if he had a competitive decision where he landed 4 takedowns, earned control and scored 95 points, that wouldn’t be too crazy. This could fall apart quickly though and I honestly don’t feel very confident in him reaching a ceiling.
I personally am leaning toward some of the finishing equity in this range ahead of Rosas but I’d label him a solid secondary option given his grappling style and price.
Font is priced at 7.5k and has real upset potential.
The sketchy part here is I don’t think he will score many points regardless. He is very likely to be taken down and held down at points, and that will firmly cap his scoring potential. He also is not likely to win ITD at +550.
Your best bet is hoping he wins RD 2/3 with boxing, even while still getting taken down. He could possibly land 40 strikes and win a decision. Rosas only allowed 70.9 DK points in his loss to Rodriguez.
It makes targeting Font difficult here because even in a win, he could fall behind Ferreira, or any other dog really. He really comes into play when 0-2 underdogs win in total.
I don’t mind Font as a low-end secondary option. He is a better boxer with a path to victory in an extended fight, and Rosas has been very sketchy late in fights. Font can win here.
I just really question the ceiling to the point that he still isn’t a priority. I will mix him in some for the price savings but I find it tough to really take a stand on Font given his upside seems extremely capped.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Rosas by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Drew Dober vs. Michael Johnson
Fight Odds: Johnson -122, Dober +102
Odds to end ITD: -200
DraftKings Salaries: Johnson 8.2k, Dober 8k
Weight Class: 155
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a fun action fight here between two longtime UFC veterans Drew Dober and Michael Johnson.
Drew Dober is a pretty solid fighter. He is decently well-rounded and always fights hard. His strength is his striking. He lands 4.52 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.34 in return. He defends strikes at 52 percent. Those aren’t incredible metrics. However, he has fought some good guys, is battle tested, and is definitely a solid striker in this weight class.
Dober fights at a high pace on the feet. Dober has quick straight punches and packs some decent power. Nine of his last 11 wins have actually come by knockout.
His other two wins came by decision where he landed 60 and 145 significant strikes, respectively. I like Dober on the feet personally. He has KO equity and has volume upside as well.
Dober is historically tough as nails and has only been knocked out three times in 43 professional fights. That is pretty impressive durability given the battles that Dober has been in.
I still kind of worry about Dober’s durability now though. His knockout losses have all been recent. He was knocked out by Matt Frevola. Furthermore, both Riddell and McKinney hurt him in recent fights. Both of those guys are dangerous so it wasn’t an awful look or anything. However, I do think the fact that Dober is simply hittable is what concerns me.
Dober also lost by doctor stoppage against Jean Silva as well. However, he wasn’t actually put out. Most recently, he was knocked out by Manuel Torres.
I can’t tell if I am overreacting here. The guys who are hurting Dober are seriously so dangerous. Torres, McKinney, and Silva are all SO dangerous. They can literally hurt anyone. However, Dober is still taking damage regardless which is what worries me. I think it is fair to say he is getting hurt by dangerous guys but it is also fair to say that his durability is declining as well. He looked okay in his recent fight against Kyle Prepolec but I do think he is just mildly declining. He is still capable though.
Dober is an okay wrestler. He lands 0.63 takedowns per 15 minutes and can take down weak grapplers. He sneakily attempts about 5 takedowns per fight but is always fighting good wrestlers so he hasn’t dominated with grappling for a long time.
Dober defends takedowns at 58 percent. He has also been submitted four times in the UFC which is a concern. I do think Dober is at least competent defensively as a grappler though. He scrambles up from his back pretty well.
Dober will be taking on Michael Johnson. I felt bad for Michael Johnson in his last loss. He was actually performing well and outstriking Carlos Diego Ferreira. He then got knocked into the outer realms of the solar system. It was tough to watch.
However, Johnson followed up that loss with a nice decision win against Darrius Flowers and then a knockout win against Ottman Azaitar. He then most recently won as a huge underdog against Daniel Zellhuber. Johnson used superior speed and boxing to win a clean decision. It was an inspiring and impressive performance by Johnson who is now 39 years old. He definitely showed there is still some fight in him. I also just want to pay tribute to the longevity of Johnson. He has been around for such a long time and the fact that he is still competing as a capable UFC lightweight deserves praise.
Michael Johnson is a sprawl and brawler. We know what he is going to do. He is generally going to try to keep the fight on the feet and look to outbox his opponents.
I consider Johnson a competent striker. He lands 4.28 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.79 in return. He defends strikes at 58 percent.
Johnson is mostly a boxer and uses his hands. He has a good jab and 1-2 straight punch combination. He will also throw some good hooks in the pocket as well. He has fast hands and has some power as well. He is also a southpaw and will land a nice inside low kick vs orthodox fighters. Johnson still looks fast even though he is 39 years old and generally carries a speed advantage over his opponents.
Johnson doesn’t look to wrestle much and only attempts about a takedown per fight. Coming from a wrestling background, he actually has a good double leg but we rarely see it as he is more interested in striking. We saw him land some takedowns against Flowers but I really only think he will look to outwrestle very weak grapplers.
Johnson defends takedowns at 81 percent. I actually think he has very good first layer takedown defense, especially in open space. His problem is when people get him vs the cage or when people chain various takedown attempts together.
We have seen Johnson defend takedowns quite well in some fights and not so well in others because of this. I also just don’t like him once he is actually grounded. He is good at staying upright because he has good TDD so we don’t see him grounded much.
However, he is a bit clueless as a submission grappler and not skilled on the mat.
I generally consider MJ durable, but he is older now and suffering a devastating KO like he did against CDF makes me a bit nervous for him going forward. Still though, he has only been knocked out three times in 31 UFC fights and they came against MASSIVE hitters and good fighters in Justin Gaethje, Josh Emmett, and CDF.
As far as this matchup goes, I think this is a very competitive striking fight.
I think MJ is faster and I don’t like how hittable Dober has been recently. However, I do think Dober maybe has more dog in him, especially in the latter half of fights. I really just think this is super tight and competitive so I am struggling picking a winner.
It’s also tough because this fight has some variance. Both guys, although pretty tough, are older now and can be hurt and also carry power. So a random knockdown or knockout is fully live at any moment. I doubt wrestling comes into play too much.
I went back and forth here, but I am going to pick Johnson just because I do think he is faster and that Johnson will get the better of some exchanges because of it. This is a close one though and I am looking forward to it.
—
On DraftKings, this is probably the most high-variance fight on the slate.
It projects as a very competitive striking fight, that really wouldn’t be a surprise to see either man win. Additionally, it wouldn’t be a surprise if either man got hurt, or if it went the full distance.
And given the general lack of grappling equity here, it becomes an ultra boom or bust matchup that’s really difficult to rely on.
Johnson is priced at 8.2k and has some knockout upside. He has fast hands and power. He has won by knockout two times in his last 16 fights, so it’s hard to justify a ton of exposure. Dober is priced at 8k, and has had much more knockout success, but Johnson has been TKOd three times in his last 31 fights.
It honestly just feels like a fight that no matter where you go, you’re going to be wrong. I’d feel extremely uncomfortable investing heavily in the matchup, or in any single side. I’d be pretty nervous to have no exposure either considering both can dish out damage and take it, and the fight is -200 to end ITD.
Statistically, if we are actually getting finishes in this fight 66% of the time, it’s worth investing in. You can split your exposure down the middle if you like, or if you actually have a lean, feel free to follow your heart.
Dober actually has the better ITD line here at +145, compared to +200 ITD for Johnson, and I suppose that’s where I’d lean too. Dober is more aggressive, and each of his last eight wins have come by knockout. He rates out as a reasonable secondary mid-range target, although an extended fight probably kills off his upside.
I’m honestly not even sure who will be more popular here publicly. I’ll probably project them both in the mid-low 20s.
Johnson at 8.2k doesn’t excite me as he is more willing to box his way to a decision, which really scares me. I could still see him winning by KO if Dober is being aggressive, also knowing we’ve seen Dober hurt recently. Having secondary or low-end secondary exposure to Johnson makes sense.
With a smaller portfolio, I’d lean toward playing the matchup light most likely and hoping it extends, and occasionally mixing in Dober who is the fighter I prefer if I have to make a decision. With a large portfolio, I’d just play both near the field percentage and you even have the option to come in overweight at that point, as the field will likely undervalue both based on pure ITD projection.
It just feels like a very competitive fight that could extend and is -175 to go Over 1.5 Rounds, so I’m really not willing to bet my night on an early finish, or any one specific outcome really.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Johnson by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Gregory Rodrigues vs. Brunno Ferreira
Fight Odds: Rodrigues -170, Ferreira +145
Odds to end ITD: -400
DraftKings Salaries: Rodrigues 8.6k, Ferreira 7.6k
Weight Class: 155
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have an intriguing rematch here in the middleweight division between Brunno Ferreira and Gregory Rodrigues.
These guys fought a few years back and it was Brunno Ferreira’s UFC debut, so Ferreira was a sizable underdog. Ferreira caught Rodrigues early and knocked him out to score the upset win. Since then, they both have had some ups and downs but have generally solidified themselves as solid mainstays in the middleweight division.
Brunno Ferreira is a brute. Ferreira is simply a dangerous guy early in fights and is capable of hurting anyone. He has knocked several guys dead.
He has generally had a reputation of being an early KO or bust guy, but I have generally disagreed with that. Sure, he isn’t as impactful later in fights but he finished Petrosyan in round 2 and won a decision against Vettori. He can still put up a fight later on. He is not perfect or anything, and lands 3.85 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.99 per minute. However, he does have some dog in him.
I also think Ferreira has a little offensive wrestling and BJJ in his game. He had success on the regionals with it, and even took down Phil Hawes and advanced to side control which kind of surprised me. He also finished McVey and Petrosyan on the mat. I don’t think he is a great grappler but he can take advantage of weak grapplers.
Ferreira’s defensive grappling looked pretty poor against Abus Magomedov. He got taken down four times and eventually got submitted.
Ferreira isn’t a guy I totally trust in extended fights as he is a little less effective later on but again he can hang. I mostly consider him an early finishing threat and then about an average fighter other than that.
Ferreira will be taking on Gregory Rodrigues. Rodrigues is an interesting fighter. I think he is quite skilled and well-rounded. He will be a tough out for a lot of middleweights. However, some of his characteristics like his durability and cardio scare me.
Rodrigues is a decent and mostly a powerful striker. He lands 5.60 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.84. He defends strikes at 50 percent. I don’t like how hittable Rodrigues is. However, he has pretty sharp punches and is actually very dangerous and definitely has some power in the pocket. He can compete on the feet in this division.
He is really tough to deal with early and you saw that in his recent loss to Jared Cannonier. He came out hot against Cannonier and had a ton of early success. You also saw his power show up against Jack Hermansson. He knocked Hermansson dead.
I do worry about Rodrigues’ chin a bit though. Jordan Williams and obviously Brunno Ferreira knocked him out, and he has been wobbled or hurt on other occasions in the UFC. You saw Cannonier knock him out as well.
Rodrigues is a black belt in BJJ and a legit one. I consider him a skilled submission grappler. He lands 1.93 takedowns per 15 minutes and is capable of taking the back and threatening with back takes.
I do worry about Rodrigues’ cardio though. We have seen him slow down in several fights.
Still though, Rodrigues is good. He is a dangerous striker and a dangerous submission grappler. He is also extremely physical, and he is a threat to just about any middleweight. He is a serious problem for a round or two. He just has some durability and cardio issues.
As far as this matchup goes, I do think Rodrigues is the better fighter. I think he is a better round winning striker over the duration and I also think he is a better grappler in general here. I think he could just beat Ferreira cleanly in any area. He could outstrike him to a decision, knock Ferreira out or just outgrapple Ferreira. Rodrigues has so many paths to victory.
I still just have a gut feeling that Rodrigues may get knocked out again here. It already happened once and Ferreira knows he can do it. I have a feeling Ferreira is going to come out hot again and try to get this done quickly. I am nervous here.
Gosh man I just think Rodrigues is better so if I pick him and he gets knocked out, I can’t be mad. I am going to go with Rodrigues to survive this time and have the skills speak for themselves.
—
On DraftKings, this could be a focal point of the slate.
I can already tell that Ferreira is going to be the chalk this week, priced at 7.6k having already knocked out Rodrigues once before. He is also averaging 100.4 points per win in the UFC, while Rodrigues is giving up 101.9 points in his losses.
Ferreira is the easiest underdog on the slate to select because we know he has 100 point upside, and he has already achieved it in this matchup. I am guessing he will be owned in the mid 30s.
I will run our MMA Labs sims later in the week but I’m also expecting Ferreira to sim out as optimal in that same mid 30s range, given his odds to win +145 and +225 ITD odds. While he should generally be considered a boom/bust target, he has a fairly decent shot of booming.
I completely agree with Tim on the matchup side that Rodrigues is the pick here, is the better fighter and has many more paths to victory. The only reason why I wouldn’t therefore recommend coming in super light on Ferreira, is because Rodrigues has a terrible chin. We actually targeted some Ferreira in that debut matchup because Rodrigues’ chin was considered to be shaky at that time too.
It’s just such a high-variance spot because chins can come and go on any occasion. Rodrigues has held up well plenty of times. He’s also been KOd dead by some weak opponents.
I’m definitely not excited to be on Ferreira at chalk this week and if I had to give a lean against the field, it would be to come in a bit underweight and play into the matchup side of things. However I can’t be fully confident in Rodrigues’ chin and I think Ferreira has enough power to hurt him again.
Ultimately, Ferreira should be among the chalkiest dogs this week but it’s fair to roster him within the field range due to price and pure upside.
Rodrigues is priced at 8.6k and is a decent target as well.
The fight as a whole is -400 to end inside the distance so what you’re really hoping for is a finish on either side. However, I tried to go after that spot in Rodrigues’ last matchup and he won a decision, scoring only 66.9 DK points.
I think Rodrigues could easily outstrike Ferreira. I am less confident he knocks him out early and therefore, there are real boom/bust elements to Rodrigues where an 8.6k price point does make me nervous.
Rodrigues does also have grappling equity. He got on top of Ferreira last time and kind of smothered him. If that occurs later in the fight, I could see a finish materializing. I’m still unsure whether Rodrigues will push a wrestling pace.
Rodrigues is -130 to win ITD here which is pretty strong, and he may be underowned this week and direct leverage against Ferreira. The more leverage we get, the better tournament play he is.
The safest path is playing Rodrigues alongside the field for his finishing equity, but I could argue coming in overweight for the ITD projection and leverage is the right call. It’s still a very high-variance spot where Rodrigues could bust in an extended fight, so I would understand if you wanted to prioritize some other mid-8ks options nearby.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Rodrigues by RNC, RD 2 (Confidence=Low)
UNDERCARD
Cody Garbrandt vs. Xiao Long
Fight Odds: Long -155, Garbrandt +135
Odds to end ITD: -115
DraftKings Salaries: Long 8.3k, Garbrandt 7.9k
Weight Class: 135
The former bantamweight champion Cody Garbrandt is back in action against a fun scrapper in Xiao Long.
I’m personally quite high on Long. Like some of my other favorite prospects, I’m not sure Long is particularly elite at any one area of the game. He doesn’t project to dominate opponents on the feet. He’s not a world-class grappler.
But Long will fight for your money, and he’s very tough. He’s willing to go for it, and that fighting attitude can go a long way.
Long is now 27-10 professionally at age 27, and he’s earned five wins by knockout and nine wins by submission. He’s only 1-2 in the UFC thus far, dropping decisions to strong opponents in SuYoung Yoo and ChangHo Lee, while knocking out Quang Le in the interim.
Long has been competing as a professional since he was a teenager, and has a lot of experience compared to the average newcomer in the division. He actually fought on DWCS in 2021 and lost a decision to Christian Quinonez, who is pretty mediocre himself but capable of picking up wins in the UFC. The two boxed at range competitively but Quinonez hurt Long a couple of times, including knocking him down once, and that helped him edge out a decision.
He then fought on Road to UFC where he picked up a pair of decision wins. In his first bout, he was essentially forced to defend against a grappling and submission heavy attack, where he was largely successful. Long couldn’t mount a ton of offense in that fight but his resistance, scrambling and general defense was on display.
Then he won a majority decision by essentially outlasting his opponent, and dominating down the stretch with his hands.
In the UFC, his results have been a mixed bag but I’ve still been fairly impressed. He lost a split to Lee who is a very aggressive grappler and clinch fighter, and Long did well to neutralize him, limiting Lee’s control to less than two minutes.
He struck somewhat competitively with Le in the early going before picking up the pace and knocking him out cold in the third round. Most recently, he lost a close decision to You who I am also high on, and who did well to limit exchanges. Long still won the third round and had some exciting moments, so I don’t consider it a poor performance.
What I really want to touch on here, is that Long isn’t going to rate out super well on a per minute sense. He still lands 5.25 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 4.20 with a 50 percent defensive rate, which is good. But he is the type to excel more in extended affairs, wear opponents down and potentially dominate the second half of the fight.
We’ve already seen it on numerous occasions from him in his short tracked career. In his last decision on RTUFC, Long landed 75 significant strikes in the third round. He knocked out Le in the third round. He was beating You up badly in the final moments of the third round as well, including landing dozens of elbows from the pocket/clinch in the final moments.
Long honestly hypes me the fuck up. When this guy gets hit, he is calling you on to exchange more. He’s willing to throw down. He wants to clinch and grind on you, and late in fights, he’s willing to push himself and try to break you.
That’s not the best path in the world but it’s not a terrible one, and I consider him well-rounded enough to continue to fight competitively. Even his ground game is decent, more defensively than offensively.
He limited Lee to less than two minutes of control and he shut down all six of You’s takedowns attempts. Long won’t mount a ton of offense himself, but he can mix in the occasional takedown and do well enough to defend against a wrestling attack too.
He’s also been to a decision 20 times in his career and won 13 of them, so he can certainly go the distance. It’s the highlight of his style and I think we’ll continue to see fun fights from him.
Garbrandt on the other hand is approaching the end of his MMA career, and I don’t particularly enjoy the style of fighting he brings to the table.
He’s always been a damage-based, boxing reliant fighter which is fine, but it’s becoming more and more clear that without early damage, Garbrandt fails to offer much.
In fact, his metrics are quite shocking, in a bad way. He lands 2.88 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 3.64 per minute with a 59 percent defensive rate. He has failed to land even 30 strikes in nine of his last 10 appearances.
Some of that is due to fights ending early, but some of that is due to Garbrandt’s inability to throw volume, and his weak cardio.
Let me put it his way. Long landed 41 sig. strikes in round three of his most recent bout. Garbrandt has failed to reach 41 sig. strikes TOTAL in 12 of his past 14 fights. The two times he did were in five-round decisions, where he still only landed 63 and 68 sig. strikes.
Garbrandt has a wrestling base too but it’s not good enough. He only lands 0.93 takedowns per 15 minutes and isn’t a strong control grappler or submission artist. He defends well at 83 percent at least, though he was subbed by Figueiredo in 2024.
I have no choice but to put Garbrandt into a bucket of the type of fighter who needs an early knockout. He has very fast hands, and is definitely knockout capable. Early damage is still absolutely a path to victory for him at this age.
But with little volume, those opportunities don’t come as often as the public thinks, and ultimately, it’s why he’s lost seven of his last 10 fights. Plus, even when he gets a brawl, Garbrandt isn’t durable. He’s actually quite chinny, and he’s been brutally KOd in four of those seven losses.
The last two times we’ve seen him hit round three, he’s landed 4 and 12 strikes. I just cannot trust this guy late. He can still win some somewhat competitive, slow paced rounds, if he lands a big shot or two, but we simply cannot expect much offensive production.
I’m guessing it’s obvious where my breakdown is heading but I think the matchup is relatively straightforward.
Garbrandt has a decent chance to land shots early. He is very fast, and Long can be hit. Long has been hurt before, and it’s possible Garbrandt could knock him out.
There’s just no way I can trust Garbrandt to win the second half of this fight. I think the two most likely outcomes are that Garbrandt does OK early, but fades and loses a decision, or that he fades and gets knocked out.
In theory, there’s a lot of potential outcomes. Garbrandt could win by KO, he could win by decision. I don’t view those as particularly strong outcomes. Long has actually been TKOd a couple of times but that was back in 2017 and 2016 when he was like 16 years old.
If Garbrandt tries to mix it up and land takedowns, I don’t think he will be successful. If Long tries to land takedowns, I don’t think he will be successful either, though if Garbrandt is gassed, maybe he can have some top success.
Perhaps this fight is better to bet as a live entry considering Long should be a heavy favorite in RDs 2/3 but I don’t particularly mind him at the price either. He’s proven far more volume upside, he can grind and throw shots in the clinch, and he seems very tough.
Unless we see him get deaded early, which is a small possibility, I like Long to win semi-comfortable in the latter rounds and get his hand raised.
—
On DraftKings, I’m somewhat interested in Long here at 8.3k.
What I noticed about his game leading up to his recent fights, is that Long is capable of landing tons of strikes in the clinch. He landed 50, 35 and 67 non-sig. strikes in a three fight span, and those numbers add up along with control.
It’s meant that in his last three tracked wins, he’s scored 91, 86 and 89 DK points, which isn’t absurdly high but it’s within range to be optimal.
Here my concern is that Garbrandt doesn’t exchange a lot. He doesn’t absorb a super high rate of strikes, and he doesn’t give up a ton of takedowns. So I could very easily picture Long winning this by decision after a slower first half, and scoring in the mid-80s.
It wouldn’t be an awful score at 8.3k but it wouldn’t be optimal.
The upside is that Long just fought a guy in You who is absorbing 1.96 sig. strikes per minute, and Long still landed 68 sig. strikes there. His willingness to push forward gives him upside.
In a matchup like this, it probably comes down to Long wearing Garbrandt down and finishing him, scoring 90-100 and contending for the optimal. He is down to +250 ITD after being +350 early in the week, which is movement I agree with, considering Garbrandt has been finished in 5/7 losses.
My hope is that Long will be semi-contrarian this week, in which case I like him. I may not even project him to be 20 percent owned. He won’t rate out super well with a weaker per minute projection, and his ITD line is mediocre. He’s lost two of three and hasn’t scored 100 points yet. The public probably won’t be super hyped.
Assuming Long comes in at like 16-20 percent ownership, I do like him as a differentiator in this range. I like his ability to grind and wear opponents down and Garbrandt is susceptible to that, among other things. I’d aim to be above the field on Long personally though it’s fair not to consider him a real priority given the expectation of an extended fight.
Garbrandt is priced at 7.9k and needs a knockout.
That’s really the difficulty in analyzing him because I don’t know how likely that is. I could see him winning a decision, but he scored 56 in his last decision.
His ITD line has been bet up from +175 to +285 win ITD, which is a mild red flag. I still think he has finishing equity but I just can’t imagine being confident in that outcome or being excited to invest in it.
The safest thing is probably to play Garbrandt around the field percentage, and I still think he’ll be relatively low owned. He’s just so boom or bust that I tend to avoid these spots and I don’t think this is a great matchup for him on paper.
Mixing Garbrandt in as a low-end secondary target for pure upside is fine, and what I’d aim to do in large fields. I’d be a little surprised if he won by RD 1 KO though and so ultimately I have to prioritize other fighters in this range personally.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Long by TKO, RD 3 (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Donte Johnson vs. Cody Brundage
Fight Odds: Johnson -900, Brundage +600
Odds to end ITD: -600
DraftKings Salaries: Johnson 9.5k, Brundage 6.7k
Weight Class: 155
*Matchup analysis written by Gordon Clark
The fight night continues as Cody Brundage returns to face the surging Donte Johnson in what should be an exciting matchup for as long as it lasts. Let’s dive in.
Cody Brundage is a polarizing figure inside the UFC. Considering his past history of accepting No Contests and looking for the easy way out, he is someone often criticized inside the UFC. Everyone loves to make fun of Cody Brundage, myself included. But I will say, he does accept fights against scary prospects and there is a level of excitement with most of his fights, of which 80% end inside the distance.
He has a 100% finish rate in wins inside the UFC and has a danger factor early, having power and decent wrestling ability while fresh. However that’s probably where the nice things end for Cody. We last saw him take on Cam “The Battle Giraffe” Rowston just a few weeks ago where he was finished inside two rounds.
He is now 5-7-1-1 inside the UFC and although he has fought a solid level of competition, he often takes the easy way out and has slowed down badly the longer the fight goes. He’s been finished multiple times and we have seen time and time again that when people get on top of him late, they can often get him out of there.
Like I said, offensively, Brundage is a dangerous fighter early on. He has a 91% finish rate with 63% of those victories coming in round one. He has solid power on the feet with the ability to land power hooks and pressure early. Additionally, he does have a college wrestling background although most of his ground game comes in the form of him jumping guillotine.
But it’s his defense, or lack thereof, where I do have my concerns. He has been finished five times but also dominated over the course of 15 minutes, showing holes in durability, cardio and minute winning. Although he is an explosive fighter early, his gas tank often lets him down and he slows heavily as the fight progresses.
Additionally, he loses scrambles plenty while on the mat, not only by jumping guillotine but also by being overzealous and not having the ability to work his way back to the feet. Brundage is also someone who prioritizes moments over minutes, allowing him to be hit from range and loses optics.
Now I know what you’re thinking. “Gordo, you’re usually so positive. Why so many negative points?”. Well the truth is, Brundage isn’t that good. He has solid power and finishing ability for a few minutes, and then struggles down the stretch. When he’s not winning early, he’s usually either jumping guillotine against a black belt, getting out grappled by horrible fighters like SD Dumas, or faking injury to be awarded a DQ victory. All results that leave you disappointed in him.
However I will admit, there is a danger factor to Cody early. He does have power, he can wrestle well early. But if you survive the early blitz or drag him into deeper waters, he will usually look for the way out. I would like Brundage to shore up his minute winning, cardio and defensive ground game before trusting him at too high of a clip in the UFC.
Donte Johnson is fresh off a finish victory in his UFC debut against Sedriques Dumas. That adds to Johnson’s 100% finish rate, but this was the first submission Donte has gotten in pro career.
Prior to this, each one of his victories came via round one knockout, including a highlight reel KO against a much larger opponent on Contender Series last year.
Johnson’s prototype is pretty simple. He’s a bit thicker for this division and he holds that size into his power. Johnson is always looking to turn your lights off. He goes for the kill early and has enough power to put away opponents early.
He did show a grappling path against Dumas but I still rate Johnson as a primary striker and an early power threat. He’s decently athletic and very explosive, but I haven’t seen many layers to his game. He’s got less than 20 minutes of overall cage time and has yet to show the ability to really fight through any adversity, win minutes or show us much of his ground game.
He did get 3 takedowns and 3 minutes of control time last time against Dumas before submitting him, which yeah, I guess shows improvements in the grappling. But Dumas also took him down and controlled him for 2 minutes which is not a good look.
He is a bit short for this weight class at 5’8” but considering he used to fight at heavyweight, and is undefeated, I can’t take too much away from him.
Now I know I’ve been a bit harsher on Johnson this breakdown, but he is a pretty good and explosive striker. I have to give credit where credit is due and say that I like his aggression, I like his power and he does have decent technical striking. It’s just that I have a ton of questions about his game. How does he fare from distance? How’s his durability and cardio? How is his grappling? How is he when he’s not fighting regional bums, SD Dumas or Cody Brundage?
All of these are questions I still have and although I will one day get the answers, until then, I just have to play a bit blindly into his athleticism, early power and aggressive style, all which have served him well so far. Overall, Johnson is an aggressive striker with plenty of power and early knockout upside, although I have my questions about his level of competition, cardio and minute winning, all of which I would like to see proven before trusting him at too high of a clip.
Let’s just skip right to the point. Cody Brundage, the notorious quitter and hated UFC fighter, was just KO’d on the mat weeks ago and is now taking on an undefeated power threat with an 100% finish rate. I understand why Johnson is favored and I do think he is quick enough, and hits hard enough to KO Brundage here.
But I have a ton of questions about Johnson that it makes me think twice about being too confident with him at this price tag. Giving up a takedown and control time to Dumas isn’t that inspiring. I haven’t seen Johnson hit that hard yet and Brundage does have early power. Maybe Cody has a path here.
But honestly, I can’t trust Cody at all, especially coming off a brutal KO a few weeks ago and think ultimately that over the course of a few minutes, he will slow and get hit by a big shot. So give me Johnson to get it done here, being the fighter on the front foot who hits hard. But I would like Cody to put up a bit of a fight, just to help me get some answers about Johnson, who I am still unsure of.
—
On DraftKings, I expect Johnson to be a priority in the top range for most at 9.5k.
He’s the only huge favorite on the slate at -900, and he has the best ITD line on the slate at -325. Obviously he is going to project well, and specifically in this matchup, Johnson should have a clear path to an early finish.
I have similar questions about his game as Gordo does though and I think it’s ultimately fair to question the betting line. Brundage just got TKOd by a 6’3” fighter in Rowston. Johnson is 5’8” and way undersized.
Johnson can still throw bombs in the pocket and I think he’s pretty legit as an early finishing threat in that regard. I also think he could win by TKO via ground-and-pound as Brundage likes to quit on the mat. I just could also see Brundage landing some early shots too and who knows, maybe he could do damage.
Still, the win and finishing path for Johnson is pretty clear and coming off a 96 point score in his UFC debut, I definitely think he will be the priority over Borralho, Lee and Sumudaerji this week.
The question really is how much ownership he’s worth. I’m curious to run our MMA Labs sims later in the week and see how he’s performing at this price tag, and I suggest you check out those tools which are free this week. Assuming Johnson is pushing 40 percent ownership, I’m unsure whether he’s still a great value target or not.
The easy answer is that when you can afford him, Johnson will rate out very well. He’s the most likely to win and win ITD and is likely to give you a 100-110 point result in a win. Having moderate exposure seems fair.
We’ve already seen him win ITD and score less than 100 points though, and Brundage has given up finish losses to opponents scoring in the 90-100 range a few times. It may not be a terrible spot to pivot to a Lee or Borralho type and leave some salary on the table. Or simply start your constructions with Tobias/Fernandez.
Johnson should win, pick up a finish and score well, and you should have exposure to him. At 9.5k and chalk, I still wouldn’t consider him a must as there’s plenty of finishing threats on this slate.
Brundage is priced at 6.7k and is an OK dart.
He obviously carries little win equity but he’ll still rate out well in situations where he does win. And he’ll be extreme leverage against Johnson.
I just don’t know how to get past the fact that Johnson is 5’8” tall. I do think he wins but like is he for sure going to avoid getting hit? Brundage can do some early damage.
Brundage is +525 to win ITD and is only a dart throw this week, but I think he’s a viable one in large fields for finishing equity if you have a moderate sized portfolio or larger.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Johnson by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium-High)
Ricky Turcios vs. Alberto Montes
Fight Odds: Montes -185, Turcios +160
Odds to end ITD: +100
DraftKings Salaries: Montes 8.5k, Turcios 7.7k
Weight Class: 155
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
I think this fight should be a banger here between Alberto Montes and Ricky Turcios. This could be a fight of the night candidate.
Montes is a Venezuelan fighter who is 10-1 professionally. He is 31 years old. He won on the Contender Series by second round anaconda choke in a pretty fun fight.
So Montes is a bit of a goofy fighter. He is a front headlock choke specialist. Six of his 10 wins have come by submission and all of them have come by Anaconda or D’Arce. He psychotically chases these chokes and in his Contender Series fight, I think I counted him going for 2 D’Arce chokes and a Peruvian necktie before he eventually successfully secured his anaconda choke.
I do think Montes is tricky with these chokes and do think it is a path to victory for him at this level. I do think against more experienced fighters who understand how to fight hands and understand positioning, it will be harder for him to pull this off. However, he is opportunistic with them.
Other than that though, it is kind of hard to describe his fighting style. He isn’t a great offensive or defensive wrestler and I have seen him taken down himself.
On the feet, I do think Montes is okay. He has some solid 1-2 straight punches and has a nice rear body kick. He can manage range okay and I think he seems mildly tough. He was knocked out by a random can in 2021 though and he hasn’t fought the best competition, so I really don’t know how good he is.
My eyes tell me Montes is okay though. I don’t think he is the best traditional positional grappler. However, I do think he seems to have some functional striking and has a decent submission game. I doubt he goes far in this division but I think he can be in some fun fights at this level.
Montes will be taking on Ricky Turcios. Turcios’ best asset is his pace. He isn’t super technical as a striker or a grappler really. However, he is very willing to throw offense and has tremendous cardio. So he can make fights ugly and unorthodox and try to outwork his opponents with his cardio and willingness to throw offense.
As a striker, I don’t consider Turcios great or anything. He isn’t very technical. However, he will just brawl and throw himself at his opponents and overwhelm them if their cardio isn’t up to par. It honestly will probably work in the lower tier levels of the UFC. However, he will definitely get outslicked by good strikers as he works his way up and that generally is what happened against Sopaj and Zahabi.
I do consider Turcios a tough guy too. He is risky with his style and has been knocked out once by UFC veteran Mana Martinez. However, I generally consider him a durable and tough guy.
As a grappler, again Turcios isn’t that technical as a wrestler or anything. However, he can probably land takedowns against tired opponents. He can end up on his back though and I don’t consider his defensive wrestling good as he is only defending takedowns at 44 percent.
However, he does work from bottom position with a ton of strike attempts and guard submissions and scrambles. He is offensive minded which I like. His main issue is just that technical fighters who don’t gas will beat him.
As far as this matchup goes, this is a wild one. My main concern with Montes is that his front choke game is his main path to victory in most fights. Now he is fighting Turcios who is a BJJ black belt, who has only been submitted once in 17 professional fights against Raul Rosas Jr. who is a very good back taker. Maybe Montes catches him, I do think it is possible. However, there is a very realistic chance that Turcios is ready for those chokes and avoids them.
If Turcios avoids them, I sort of think this is anyone’s fight and it will probably be back and forth. On the feet, I do think Montes in spots throws the most impactful strikes and can control distance a bit better. I generally think Montes will get the better of the exchanges if he isn’t tired. However, Turcios is tough and will try to make this a mess and I don’t know if I trust Montes to easily control range for 15 minutes and fight a pretty fight. So this could get weird.
Furthermore, both of these guys can also probably take each other down. I don’t think Montes is a great defensive wrestler and Turcios could have some grappling success here.
I think this is a schizophrenic type of fight. Either Montes gets his front choke or we are getting a shit show. I still think Montes is going to land some good shots on the feet here so I am going to pick him to win. However, this should be a bit crazy.
—
On DraftKings, I have mixed feelings.
Montes rates out more like a fade from a prospect standpoint than anything else. He’s a front choke specialist but I’ve never even seen him attempt a takedown, so these front chokes are reliant on opponents diving head first into his arms and not knowing how to defend.
On the feet, he’s an effective, singular kicker, but he throws way too much flashy shit. The combination just doesn’t make for a great process and I bet he gets exposed soon. However, I do think he’s relatively effective in both of his areas of expertise.
Montes is now priced at 8.5k which is cheap enough to warrant consideration. He’s the perfect fade candidate at a high price, but at 8.5k, I don’t think I can rule him out completely.
The reason I’m hesitant is again, because he’s not shooting takedowns. So he’s the type to win by RD 1 sub and score 92 DK points. He just won by RD 2 sub and scored 93 DK points.
This isn’t a hard rule though. He could win by KO and he could score 100 but without takedown attempts, he’s just a low volume striker and it gives me a lot of concern about his top end ceiling.
Against Turcios, he’s actually getting an opponent with essentially zero defensive skills. Turcios has been knocked down in two of his last three fights and he defends takedowns at 44 percent. Montes should put up some offense here, and if he can win ITD, he can score well. He is +165 to win ITD which is OK.
It’s just going to be a messy fight. I’m actually OK with targeting some Montes on this slate because Turcios is so willing to exchange, and with an early finish Montes can contend for the optimal. I’m just not at all confident in his fighting style and am not even particularly confident he wins, so at best I’d label him a fine mid-range secondary option, with a bit of finishing upside in a high paced matchup.
Turcios is priced at 7.7k and is viable as well.
He is a psychotic pace fighter, and when he wins, he can put up big scores. He’s averaged 116.8 points per win in the UFC. He is just awful technically, and you’re not going to be stoked you have money on him as you watch him fight.
Montes will beat him up from range and might sub him if Turcios tries to wrestle, so there’s no real floor here. But Turcios’ style also sets up as one that could break Montes down if those anaconda chokes don’t succeed. Like if Turcios gets on top of Montes after a failed anaconda choke, then what? I’m honestly not sure what Montes can do at that point and we really haven’t seen him face much adversity.
If Turcios closes distance generally and forces gritty clinch exchanges, that can lead him to victory too because Montes is so much better at long kicking range.
Given the pacing here and some questions on Montes, I actually don’t mind Turcios. I highly doubt he will be popular coming off three losses in four fights, and he rates out better as a pivot off some other chalk like Ferreira.
Turcios isn’t necessarily someone to rely on and he’s only +450 to win ITD, but his aggro pace style still presents an upside opportunity and the betting odds are fairly competitive. I’d label him a solid secondary option this week given we should also see lower public ownerships.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Montes by Anaconda Choke, RD 2 (Confidence=Low)
Cody Durden vs. Nyamjargal Tumendemberel
Fight Odds: Tumendemberel -145, Durden +125
Odds to end ITD: -190
DraftKings Salaries: Tumendemberel 8.4k, Durden 7.8k
Weight Class: 125
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a fun action fight here between Nyamjargal Tumendemberel and Cody Durden. This fight is sneaky fun and I could see a performance bonus or fight of the night type of situation here as it should bring some exciting moments.
Tumendemberel is a Mongolian fighter who is 9-1 professionally and 27 years old.
He carries some grappling credentials as a national-level Sambo and Judo medalist in Mongolia.
Despite his “Art of Knockout” nickname and a reputation for explosive power—highlighted by a seven-second KO on the regional scene—his primary path to victory against regional competition has been his submission game.
I don’t think he is actually a very good grappler or wrestler though and I have seen him put in some bad spots defensively. I moreso consider him powerful and he can power through some takedowns or submissions but I think that will only work early for him or against lower level opponents.
On the feet, he is again very powerful and can knock people out early but he isn’t a super technical striker and I expect him to get out skilled over the duration against more experienced strikers.
Currently 1-1 in the UFC, his one loss came by 3 round decision to Carlos Hernandez where we actually played Hernandez. Tumendemberel basically lost 14 minutes of that fight. He got outpointed and outwrestled and we again have seen him taken down and put in bad positions. However, he nearly stole the decision by hurting Hernandez badly at the very end of two rounds.
I think that’s the name of the game with Tumendemberel. He will be losing minutes against UFC level fighters on the feet and on the mat. However, he can randomly have moments where he can hurt or finish people.
Tumendemberel will be taking on UFC veteran Cody Durden. Durden is kind of a wrestle-brawler. He likes to shoot in for takedowns and get the back to look for ground-and-pound or a quick submission. He will also try to grind fighters out for 15 minutes as he did to Carlos Mota, Qileng Aori, Charles Johnson, and Jake Hadley.
Durden showed some decent grit in those fights and stayed tough for 15 minutes. He lands 3.99 takedowns per 15 minutes which is good. I think he can continue to win with wrestling against below-average grapplers at this level.
I still just hate how Durden gets finished so much though. I don’t like that Durden has been submitted five times in his career. I hate when gameplan dependent grapplers get consistently submitted. It just makes their fights even harder to predict.
Durden is okay on the feet. He lands 3.66 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.47 in return. He just kind of brawls, and again, I think he is decent and powerful early. However, I don’t trust him over the course of 15 minutes in striking exchanges to comfortably win. He also has been getting hurt a lot lately and was recently knocked out by Bruno Silva. He was also knocked out by Jose Ochoa.
As far as this matchup goes, this fight is really annoying.
Durden is clearly a better wrestler, and I think he can take down Tumendemberel, and put him in bad positions and be winning minutes and maybe even finish Tumendemberel on the mat. The path to victory is clearly there for Durden and I am going to pick him to get it done.
The issue is Durden is kind of an idiot and is a sucker for getting hurt or submitted. Tumendemberel isn’t good but he is very dangerous and explosive. Tumendemberel just needs a second of this fight to go his way and he can win, and I am super nervous that he does find that finish. Durden can honestly compete on the feet minute to minute but Tumendemberel is clearly more dangerous early and this is just a sketchy fight.
I am still going to go with Durden. Durden has fought really good fighters lately and this is a step down for him. However, Tumendemberel’s finishing upside is clearly there.
—
On DraftKings, both sides of this matchup are pretty viable.
I’m expecting this to take place at a fairly high pace, and both fighters leave openings to be exposed. Tumendemberel only has one career win by decision, and Durden loves nothing more than to get finished in losses, where he’s giving up 103.6 DK points on average.
Durden also is willing to be aggressive himself, and he can wrestle at a moderate pace, where Tumendemberel is weaker. Durden is still averaging 98.2 DK points in wins which is strong.
From a matchup perspective, Durden is a clearly superior fighter but he lacks durability. So my expectation is that he’s going to be landing takedowns and winning rounds, up until the point where he gets finished, which still could come quickly.
I obviously can’t feel confident in rostering him, but I think Durden is one of my favorite dogs of the week. I think he has a clear path to 3-5 takedowns in a win, and many minutes of control. At 7.8k, I think Durden can exceed value and contend for the optimal in a win.
Plus, this is a step down in competition for him and a step up for Tumendemberel, who has never won a UFC fight. Durden has at least lost to solid opposition in Allan Nascimento, Jose Ochoa, Joshua Van, Bruno Silva and Tagir Ulanbekov.
I still think the durability dynamic is enough to arguably favor Tumendemberel, who will have a shot at wrapping up the neck when Durden wrestles, but I also think Durden’s offensive wrestling is strong enough to earn top time and therefore give him a legit path to win.
At 7.8k, Durden doesn’t have to be a priority for you. Ferreira is cheaper, the winner of Dober/Johnson could score well, etc. Durden might just lose. I still think he has a reasonable chance to win, grapple, and put up a solid score, and he’s +240 to win ITD which isn’t bad.
I’d label Durden as a pretty quality secondary option this weekend and I don’t mind being overweight if the field is just too burned by his recent losses.
Tumendemberel is priced at 8.4k and is very boom or bust.
My fear is that he just won’t produce points per minute, and so an extended finish could result in a weaker score than we’d like. I also already acknowledged Durden is yielding 103 DK points on average when he loses.. And I really do believe Tumendemberel will finish the fight if he wins at all.
Most likely, it will be an early finish too. I think RD 1/2 is more likely than RD 3 but I guess I can’t rule anything out. Tumendemberel is +125 to win ITD which is decent, and the fight is -150 Under 2.5 Rounds.
Tumendemberel ultimately makes for a reasonable upside target at 8.4k. The most likely outcome, potentially in the entire fight, is an early Tumendemberel finish. It could be a TKO or submission. He’s absolutely worth mixing in this week.
My personal fear is just that Durden wrestles early, kills off a round and even with a late finish, Tumendemberel can’t put up a ceiling score. I may prefer to pay up a bit more when possible.
There’s variance no matter how you shake it with these kinds of plays. At least Tumendemberel will hunt for the kill, which is half the battle. He’ll rate out as a solid upside option at a reasonable price, and is worth consideration in this mid-range.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Durden by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Sumudaerji vs. Jesus Aguilar
Fight Odds: Sumudaerji -230, Aguilar +195
Odds to end ITD: +110
DraftKings Salaries: Sumudaerji 9.1k, Aguilar 7.1k
Weight Class: 125
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a random fight here in the flyweight division between Su Mudaerji and Jesus Aguilar.
Mudaerji is legitimately one of the worst grapplers in the UFC. It is very rare to see a fighter in the lower weight classes this bad on the mat. He is absolutely awful when he is grounded, and gives up advances of positions and can be pummeled with ground-and-pound or submitted easily.
I do think Mudaerji has some decent first layer takedown defense though. He defends takedowns at 60 percent and can defend some tds here and there. When he gives up a takedown though, he is just awful on the mat.
To be fair though, I did see at least some improvement in Mudaerji’s scrambling against Mitch Raposo. Mudaerji was taken down 6 times on 19 attempts but he worked up a little better and was only controlled for 4 minutes.
Mudaerji is a solid striker. He is tall at 5’8” which is huge for this division. He also fights long and controls range well, fighting out of the southpaw stance. He has a piston left hand and is very accurate and powerful with it. He also has a good kicking game. He can hurt people on the feet in this division. He lands 4.48 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.39 in return. He can continue to win striking fights in this division.
I do think Mudaerji has suspect durability though. He has been hurt a few times in the UFC now and even Matt Schnell was hurting him badly on the feet.
Mudaerji will be taking on Jesus Aguilar who is somehow 4-2 in the UFC which is hilarious because this guy is not very good.
Aguilar is kind of a freestyle fighter and likes to grapple a bit, and lands 1.64 takedowns per 15 minutes. The problem is I don’t think he is a good grappler at all. He has okay takedowns that he can spring together here and there and has a decent guillotine choke. His last 5 submissions have actually come by guillotine. I think his guillotine is dangerous.
Other than that, he has a lot of issues with his grappling. His takedowns aren’t great and I have seen him taken down himself by awful competition, and outwrestled by guys like Estevam and Mendonca.
Aguilar’s striking is also not really there. He can kind of go through the motions but that is about it.
I think the main asset of Aguilar is that he is tough and tries really hard. Honestly he beat Gurule simply because he tried more. He at least gets the best out of himself.
As far as this matchup goes, I think Mudaerji is the rightful favorite because he is way more skilled as a striker. On the feet, Mudaerji should be the round winner, and should be able to control range and land his long distance strikes. He could maybe hurt Aguilar but Aguilar is tough and my guess is he survives.
I think Aguilar has some paths to victory. He has a good guillotine and it wouldn’t be shocking to see him catch Mudaerji in transition. He also could land a random punch but that would be surprising.
Furthermore, Aguilar could maybe land a takedown or two. Mudaerji is vulnerable on the mat and Aguilar isn’t the worst grappler in the world.
The issue is I don’t think Aguilar’s takedowns are that strong. I think Raposo is a better pure wrestler than Aguilar and even he struggled.
So my guess is Mudaerji minimizes the grappling enough, gets a striking fight, and wins.
—
On DraftKings, Sumudaerji is priced up to 9.1k and will only be a contrarian option.
He doesn’t grapple, and he doesn’t throw enough volume to have any shot in an extended fight. He needs an early KO, probably a RD 1 KO to have a real chance to be optimal.
Sumudaerji is only +245 to win ITD which is not strong, and especially so compared to other surrounding options. Plus, he’s only topped 80.7 DK points one time in five wins.
The public is going to hate him here, and honestly, I understand why. He’s clearly less of a priority to me than just about any other favorite on this entire slate. Could he still win by RD 1 KO? Sure, he could. But I can’t bet on that outcome with any real investment, and would still only label him a contrarian target.
My guess is Sumudaerji will be owned in the low teens this week, so he’ll be super contrarian. He exists if you want a place to be different. He could do some damage on the feet. I just have to rank him very low on the priority list given the extreme bust nature in an extended fight, and ultimately won’t be rostering him much or at all this week personally.
Aguilar at 7.1k is the preferred play by default.
I’ve gone back and forth on whether I like him, and honestly I don’t like him much. What I like is the theoretical chance he can grapple smash his way to a win, which we’ve seen Sumudaerji succumb to before.
But Sumudaerji is way bigger and longer, and is only absorbing 2.06 sig. strikes at distance. Aguilar essentially has zero floor here.
Relying on his wrestling isn’t ideal, but it’s not impossible. He could maybe take the back and maybe jump on a guillotine. He’s still only +290-+380 to win ITD depending on where you look.
For super cheap, sure, I can get behind a small dose of Aguilar and I think he’s an acceptable low-end play. He has a mild grappling path to win and with a large portfolio, I don’t mind mixing him on occasion just in case.
My expectation is that he gets outstruck, and likely loses a decision though, and scores very few points along with it.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Sumudaerji by Decision (Confidence=Medium)
Rafael Tobias vs. Diyar Nurgozhay
Fight Odds: Tobias -180, Nurgozhay +155
Odds to end ITD: -400
DraftKings Salaries: Tobias 9k, Nurgozhay 7.2k
Weight Class: 205
We have a low-level light heavyweight matchup between the debuting Rafael Tobias and Diyar Nurgozhay.
Tobias is 14-1 professionally at age 22, and he’s earned five wins by knockout, six by submission and three by decision. His nickname is “bipolar” which suits him well. Or maybe it doesn’t. Or maybe it does.
Tobias is a Chute Boxe fighter and a somewhat willing brawler. He’ll rock back and forth with his hands up and throw bombs, and he was able to capitalize on early damage on DWCS, get on top of his opponent and finish with a RNC.
We don’t have a ton of tape available on Tobias, and he’s also 22 years old, so I’m hesitant to make any real claims. He looks like a good athlete, and based on that DWCS performance, he looks to carry real power as well.
His DWCS victory only lasted a few minutes but it was the best win of his career. His older regional tape wasn’t as impressive, and I’d label his striking more as an “I go, you go, I go, you go” type of style that got him knocked out as a -500 favorite in 2023.
On DWCS he was facing a smaller, less athletic opponent so maybe that was part of the reason for his success, but he was able to pressure and throw huge power shots with both his hands and legs, and was able to put his stamp on the fight.
In some more recent regional footage, Tobias has been grappling as well. His offensive wrestling looks alright, and he has been able to advance position and lock up submission like an arm-triangle. On DWCS I thought his back take was pretty good, and I have some hope for him on the ground.
Tobias is apparently a brown belt in BJJ which makes sense. He’ll be submission capable. Time will tell as to where his ceiling lies, but for now I’d assume he can outgrapple weak competition. I doubt he’s some real wrestling or submission threat, but at LHW, even a small dose of capable grappling can get you far.
I wasn’t really able to view his decisions but the fact that he’s won decisions is a positive sign. I still don’t think he’s going to be some elite per minute fighter. But he is a moderately dangerous power threat, who can mix it up on the mat if he needs to. He also has a recent win via leg kicks which is cool.
This kid is still only 22 years old so he’s not a finished product but he seems like he’ll fit in just fine at LHW.
Tobias will be taking on Diyar Nurgozhay who is 0-2 in the UFC and has looked absolutely awful.
I consider it a mild surprise, because I thought Nurgozhay was a decent prospect entering the UFC.
Nurgozhay is from Kazakhstan and is primarily a boxer, but I considered him fairly well-rounded as well. He’s not the greatest athlete, but he carries power and physicality, and some wrestling upside as well.
Many of his wins have come ultra-quickly, which includes seven first-round finishes, but he’s also shown impressive cardio as well in his two decision victories. Nurgozhay defeated Magomed Magomedov by three-round decision in EFC, and then went five rounds against Konstantin Andreitsev for the EFC title in 2022.
I think Nurgozhay is a bit slow, and he’s not the highest volume fighter, but I really do like his hands and he seems very effective with his boxing. He can come forward and be aggressive, but he often prefers to counter as well which we saw on DWCS.
There is some negative in that though. In the first round on DWCS, Nurgozhay only landed 15 significant strikes in the first round, while he absorbed 15 as well. It was a very competitive round and he could have lost it.
In the second round, he started to land more cleanly and then landed a sick head kick to end the fight, knocking his opponent to the canvas.
Again, I view Nurgozhay as pretty effective and he seems to carry power, and diversity. But he can be in competitive rounds given his lower volume style.
In the UFC, his cautious early approach hasn’t worked at all. He fought a low level opponent in Brendson Ribeiro for his UFC debut, and was outlanded 23-15 in the first round, and knocked down. Nurgozhay went to his wrestling in the second round and landed two takedowns, but he was submitted with a kimora trap from the bottom, which is not a great sign.
Speaking of not great signs, Nurgozhay then fought Satybaldiev, who bombed on him early and dropped him. Nurgozhay was able to land a takedown, but Satybaldiev reversed him and submitted him with an ezekiel choke from top. It doesn’t get much worse.
I honestly thought Nurgozhay was fairly tough and durable before he made his UFC debut. He’s beaten some OK competition including Emiliano Sordi, the former PFL champion, who he knocked out in round one in 2024.
Additionally, I do like some of his wrestling. I don’t think he’s a great wrestler, but he’s capable, and he’s 3/3 landing takedowns in the UFC. He can damage opponents from top position and finish fights.
However, I just don’t know what to make of these last two performances. He’s been dropped in both, and he’s been reversed on the mat and subbed in both.. It’s hard to have any positive takeaways from those performances.
From a purely technical standpoint, I don’t think Nurgozhay is super outgunned here. I think he can compete on the feet, and he can compete on the mat. We’ve seen Tobias knocked unconscious and who knows what his defensive wrestling is like.
With that said, I have more faith in Tobias at this point. He seems to carry real power in his strikes and Nurgozhay hasn’t dealt with that well recently. Nurgozhay hasn’t thrown enough volume recently either. An early KD seems somewhat likely for Tobias.
I don’t think Tobias just walks him down, outwrestles him and subs him, but maybe that’s on the table too. Especially from a club-and-sub variety, Nurgozhay’s defensive grappling just looks bad.
Ultimately the pick has to be Tobias here and probably early ITD. I don’t necessarily love to bet on damage based fighters and I’m unsure if Tobias has enough process in his game, but he will throw big shots and that is probably enough here.
If Nurgozhay can survive the early bombs, maybe he can land a lucky shot of his own and hurts Tobias. Maybe he can land more takedowns and survive on top, and we find out Tobias is bad from his back. These outcomes are live in a high-variance matchup with a 22-year-old debutant, but ultimately I have to lean with Tobias who has more killer instinct.
—
On DraftKings, Tobias is priced at 9k and is a fine upside tournament target.
He carries a very strong ITD line at -155 and we’ve seen Nurgozhay dropped in back-to-back fights. So an early KO seems very much on the table and at this price tag, that would put Tobias in the optimal conversation.
I’m guessing he’ll come with some ownership as well. My suspicion is that the public will hammer the mid/upper 8k range which is where Tobias lands. It’s probably the correct move, unless you want to pay up to Johnson or be contrarian in the 9k range.
However, I honestly thought he’d be cheaper, and the betting line is trending away from him. Tobias is now only -180 to win while still keeping the strong ITD line. I do still think we’ll see ownership come his way but it’s going to be more capped than I originally thought, and potentially makes him an even stronger target within this range.
The downside here is that Tobias is probably dependent on an early finish. And there’s plenty of other options. It’s a standard boom/bust target ultimately.
My position at this point would be to land in the mild/moderate exposure range, which will be alongside the field or a bit overweight. I wouldn’t want a big underweight position because an early finish is very achievable. I don’t necessarily want a huge overweight position because Tobias is so dependent on an early finish to be optimal, and plenty of other targets in this same range have merit too.
So in some ways, this is just a pretty easy “mix him in alongside the field” type of target and that’s what I will plan to do.
Nurgozhay is priced at 7.5k and I originally considered him a leverage target, but now I have to pause as the betting line is trending toward him.
I wasn’t expecting him to carry ownership this week coming off two ugly performances, but he’s now only +155 to win at 7.2k. He has the best win equity of anyone in this range and a decent ITD line as well at +275.
I really don’t have faith in Nurgozhay winning, and wasn’t planning on attacking him in tournaments, but considering the move in the betting line, I have to admit he becomes more appealing when you need an option to save salary. I think he generally falls into the secondary category now and is someone who I am going to increase my exposure to based on the moneyline.
I kind of like leaning on the side of targeting the fight as a whole, and being a tad overweight with the fight being lined -400 to end ITD.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Tobias by TKO, RD 1 (Confidence=Medium-Low)
JeongYeong Lee vs. Gaston Bolanos
Fight Odds: Lee -315, Bolanos +258
Odds to end ITD: -165
DraftKings Salaries: Lee 9.3k, Bolanos 6.9k
Weight Class: 145
*Matchup analysis written by Gordon Clark
The fight night continues as Gaston Bolanos takes on short notice replacement JeongYeong Lee, in what shapes out to be a fun featherweight clash.
Gaston Bolanos returns to the UFC after a round two submission loss to Quang Le last May. Bolanos is now 2-2 in the UFC, alternating wins and losses, with both his UFC wins coming by decision and both his losses coming by finish. That puts his record at 8-5 with experience in both the UFC and Bellator.
Bolanos has a nice kickboxing and muay-thai background and that is evident in his fight tape. He has a kick heavy approach and looks to do his best work from range. He isn’t landing the most volume, but is absorbing less than 2.4 strikes per minute, which shows his ability to limit damage and win striking exchanges from range.
He also has power, with all of his Bellator wins by KO for a finish rate of 75%. The largest issue for Bolanos though is that ground game. He has been taken down in each of his UFC fights and sports a 42% takedown defense. He has been taken down 12 times in four UFC fights and was most recently submitted by Quang Le.
He has actually been finished in 4/5 losses, including 3 times by submission. He was KO’d by Marcus McGhee in 2024, although he has historically been a pretty durable fighter, and that is not something I would knock him for too much.
Additionally, Bolanos is coming up to 145 in this matchup after completing his entire UFC career at 135 to date. It is important to note he competed in Bellator and kickboxing at this weight though.
Overall, Bolanos is a pure striker with solid kicks, dangerous power and good distance management. However, there is a large hole in his grappling and with a 42% takedown defense and multiple submission losses, I hope that is something he is looking to improve on at the gym.
JeongYeong Lee returns this weekend looking to snap out of this 2 fight losing streak. The “Korean Tiger” won his contract through the Road to the UFC and actually started his time in the Octagon 2-0 with wins over Yizha and Blake Bilder. He was then paired up with Hyder Amil in 2024, where Amil unleashed an incredible flurry of 42 punches in a single minute, melting the defenseless Lee.
That wasn’t the best look for Lee, who has historically been content to absorb damage in order to close distance and land a shot of his own, but you are rarely going to find a fighter who will mimic the craziness of Amil and ability to throw that many shots over that period of time.
He then returned against Daniel Santos where he was ultimately taken down 6 times and controlled for 6 minutes. Lee actually defended all 5 takedowns in the first round but with Santos shooting 18 times over 15 minutes, he was ultimately beaten down the stretch. That was a bit surprising to some, as Lee does have a solid grappling pedigree and has 3 submission wins on his record to go with his 64% finish rate.
Where Lee does his best work though, is in close. He has power and that was highlighted by his 42 second KO with a right hook on the Road to UFC. As I mentioned, he can be hit as he closes distance but he does hit hard and likes to take the front foot in striking exchanges. I do think he is pretty tough as well. I know Amil KO’d him but that’s his only finish loss and it was a unique fight.
Aside from that, Lee is a dangerous, well-rounded fighter. I do think he has a decent offensive wrestling game of his own right, but he is only landing 0.63 TDs per 15 minutes. That doesn’t look too inspiring and typically, he is actually the one defending takedowns. Although he has been taken down 12 times in the UFC, he still has a 72% TDD. When he is the one with the wrestling edge, he can use it to win minutes, such as he did against Bilder.
Overall, Lee is a well-rounded fighter with the ability to land powerful shots in close and have offensive grappling success should he decide to use his wrestling skills. He can lose minutes from range so I would like to see him show the ability to close distance and use his wrestling more often before trusting him at too high of a clip.
I like this fight. Both fighters are trying to get back in the win column and you could argue a path for either guy. Bolanos is the better striker and can have success from range against the hittable Lee. But I do think a large majority of the edges in the matchup lie with Lee.
Although he is taking this on short notice, he should be larger against Bolanos who is moving up a weight class here. I think that size will come into play, because the largest advantage is most likely in the grappling for Lee. Bolanos has a 42% TDD, has been taken down in every match and has been submitted three times before. I think Lee gets back to his wrestling ways and is able to control Bolanos here.
Of course an extended striking affair favors Bolanos, but I think Lee uses his size to close the distance and have success on the mat. Give me Lee to get it done on short notice.
—
On DraftKings, Lee is priced up to 9.3k and I view him as a contrarian option.
I really see the 9.3k-9.1k range taking limited action this week, where most will want to pay up to Johnson or will be fine to save salary instead.
Lee just doesn’t feel deserving of this kind of price tag. His two decision wins have scored 72 and 49 DK points, and his losses have been kind of ugly.
You’re essentially just hoping that we see a different version of Lee here, given the lower quality of his opponent. He’ll carry more knockout equity than in past matchups, and more wrestling equity as well. If he can dominate in either area and get a stoppage, he can be optimal.
Lee is -105 to win ITD, which is OK, and I do think he’s a viable contrarian target. We’ve seen Bolanos KOd and submitted, so I wouldn’t be particularly surprised by the result. Lee is athletic and explosive, and capable of finishing the fight.
Assuming we get teens exposure here on Lee, I think he’s a viable contrarian option. It’s impossible to have real faith in the outcome, but there are at least paths to a ceiling and historically he rates out well for early finishing equity. I won’t be drastically overweight but I’d at least include Lee in my player pool and he makes for an interesting contrarian pivot off Johnson.
Bolanos is priced at 6.9k and I don’t love him.
I’m also still really skeptical of Lee. He’s been KOd, he’s been taken down, he gets kind of tired late in fights. He just doesn’t seem like a great prospect to be honest and I wouldn’t be that shocked if Bolanos won.
I also don’t see incredible grappling upside from Bolanos. We’ve already seen him win a decision and score 69 DK points via striking. His grappling based decision win scored 79 DK points. He just doesn’t carry a lot of upside.
Bolanos in theory needs a KO to smash, but he’s +425 to win ITD which isn’t too strong. Obviously he’ll be low owned, and an essential contrarian, salary saver if you want to mix him in for that purpose.
I do think he has enough win equity to include in a larger portfolio, but I’m really not sold on his fantasy ceiling. As one of the heavier underdogs on the slate, I will aim to pay up when I can, but I wouldn’t completely rule out a striking based upset here.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Lee by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Luke Fernandez vs. Rodolfo Bellato
Fight Odds: Fernandez -225, Bellato +190
Odds to end ITD: -340
DraftKings Salaries: Fernandez 8.9k, Bellato 7.3k
Weight Class: 205
*Matchup analysis written by Gordon Clark
We get the fight night started with a light heavyweight clash between UFC newcomer Luke Fernandez and Rodolfo Bellato, in what should be a good fight for as long as it lasts.
Luke Fernandez makes his highly anticipated UFC debut this weekend after a solid regional career and a 16 second KO on the Contender Series last October, albeit against maybe the worst fighter I have ever seen (Medina would be a favorite over him, that’s telling you something).
Regardless of the level of competition, Fernandez did what he had to and only added to his repertoire. Fernandez is now 6-0, split amongst five KOs and one decision win. He was also undefeated as an amateur, which if you add to his time spent fighting at CFFC, a solid regional scene, he has fought a decent level of competition and maintained the spotless record.
Fernandez is a very solid athlete. He is explosive, hits hard and has the ability to fight in all areas. Along with his ability to hit hard and crack some chins, we have also seen him win minutes along the cage. His clinch game is pretty solid as he is able to control fighters and win minutes with his strength. We have also seen him have success on the mat, including in grappling matches against UFC level opponents.
I like his wrestling especially along the clinch. I still rate him to be a primary striker, but he’s shown the ability to get takedowns and end up on top, where he is able to land plenty of damage. His ground-and-pound might be his best weapon as he is often able to make opponents quit and land damaging shots to end the fight.
If I were to criticize him, I would like to see more defensive improvements from the prospect. He is willing to eat shots to give one and although he has fought weak enough opponents to maintain his durability, I don’t know how that will fare against a better level of competition. He also isn’t the highest volume striker, so could get outpointed from range, but has the power to win moments and find the fight ending blow.
Additionally, although he doesn’t have much cage time we have seen him go 4 rounds (yes, 4) in his sole decision win over a solid former Bellator prospect, showing he does have the ability to compete for extended periods of time. Overall, Fernandez is an athletic wrestle-boxer who has the ability to land power shots and get the KO, or have success in the clinch and from top control.
I like what I’ve seen from him so far, despite the small sample size. However, I would like to see him improve his defensive striking and minute winning before considering him a top level prospect in the UFC.
Rodolfo Bellato returns to the UFC Octagon after going winless in 2025 with a loss, draw and No Contest in 3 bouts. He most recently took on Navajo Stirling where he was ultimately beaten over the course of 15 minutes. He is now 1-1-1-1 in the UFC, with his sole win coming against Ihor Potieria in 2023.
He also is the proud owner of one of the weirdest stoppages in UFC history, where he was hit with an upkick and responded five seconds later by seeing ghosts trying to claim the DQ win, but ultimately drawing the No Contest.
Antics aside, Bellato is a serviceable light heavyweight. He hits hard, has a solid grappling game and seems to be improving his cardio. He has fought a solid level of competition inside the Octagon and is able to stay competitive with top guys in the division.
But the real issue is how he’s also looked really bad against lesser fighters. Ihor Potieria was a brutal fighter who’s now cut, and Bellato was badly hurt by him in a fight that could’ve been stopped by different refs. He was also KO’d by Petrino on the Contender Series and on the regional scene, giving us some questions about his durability.
We have also seen him taken down and controlled, by both Crute and Stirling, although he was able to stay safe and work his way up. His best attribute is in the power striking in my opinion, where he is able to hurt people with his aggressive style. He is landing 5.13 strikes per minute at a 59% accuracy and does hit hard. He isn’t the quickest striker and can be countered easily, absorbing 5.86 strikes per minute at a 46% striking defence, but he hits hard enough to make the lack of defense worth it.
He also has a solid offensive grappling game that I think is under utilized. Although he can be stuck on the bottom like I mentioned, he also has a solid top game and ability to land damage, mostly due to his large frame. He is currently averaging 1.44 takedowns per 15 minutes and defending takedowns at 94%, showing he is often able to dictate where the fight takes place.
Overall, Bellato is a slow, plodding but heavy hitting fighter who has solid offensive grappling and has shown improved cardio. However, I worry about his lack of speed, defense and durability, which I would like to see shored up before trusting him at too high of a clip in this division.
I think this is a fun matchup. We have the newcomer Fernandez getting a great test in Bellato. Bellato will never be champion and can be beaten in multiple realms, but he is no easy out. If you cannot grapple, Bellato can take you down and deal damage. If you can’t take a shot, Bellato hits hard and can put you out. So do you have the speed and ability to beat Bellato to the punch, that’s the question.
I think Fernandez is solid. I like the power, clinch game and offensive wrestling. But I haven’t seen it against the best level of competition and still think he doesn’t have the best minute winning. However against Bellato, I do think he will be quicker and able to get clinch battles where I see him succeeding. This fight can still be close. I think Bellato can make it really competitive in the striking. I just think that as the fight goes on, I trust the durability of Fernandez more and it’s only a matter of time before Fernandez can land the big shot or end up in top position, where I really like his ground-and-pound.
So although I’m not a big fan of laying chalk on a debuting fighter without seeing him face much adversity, I think he’s the better technical fighter here and has multiple paths to beat Bellato. However, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Bellato keep it competitive in the striking or land something big of his own, I just don’t know if he has the speed or ability to win minutes in this matchup. Give me the newcomer.
—
On DraftKings, I prefer Fernandez at 8.9k for early finishing equity.
I think he’s an interesting prospect but it’s always a bit difficult to quantify regional success. The CFFC organization is a decent one that has brought some solid fighters to the UFC, so I’m willing to trust it more than other regional scenes.
Fernandez has a D3 wrestling background and is a purple belt in jiu-jitsu, but he’s arguably best as a boxer as Gordo noted. I don’t think he’s an elite minute winner, or elite wrestler, so he still probably carries a ceiling. However, I consider him relatively athletic and well-rounded and a pretty dangerous power boxer.
If Fernandez doesn’t win ITD early, he’s still probably not optimal, and can be treated as a standard boom or bust play. Bellato has allowed 78.4 and 107.5 in losses, and 66 points to Crute in a draw, so it’s been a mixed bag.
It’s difficult to be sure that Fernandez can find the finish, but Bellato has been knocked down in 3/6 tracked fights, and that doesn’t include the up-kick from Craig that arguably KOd him as well. So I honestly do think Fernandez has early stoppage equity, and he has a solid ITD line here at -165.
At 8.9k, Fernandez seems like a decent upside target. There’s no reason to be carried away here, and he’s not a clearly better target than Tobias or Rodrigues for example, but he has a decent shot at an early win and can be optimal in that case. I don’t mind playing him around the field percentage and I think he’s a quality upside, secondary target in general.
Bellato at 7.3k is a pretty mediocre play.
I really have no interest in him but I’m not completely ruling him out.
I just don’t see an easy path for him to dominate on the mat. I don’t think it’s likely he separates from Fernandez on the feet. So a competitive, striking based decision or a knockout seems most likely.
Bellato is +300 to win ITD which is OK for the price. I don’t think he’ll be very popular.
Realistically, I think 7.5k and above is sort of the cutoff for a certain tier of win equity, meaning 7.4k and below is a bit jumbled, and I’m not particularly confident in any of them.
If you want to mix Bellato in as a low-end salary saver, with some leverage against a newcomer in Fernandez and some theoretical upside, I think that’s fine. I personally have no real expectations for him and am not particularly excited to invest.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Fernandez by TKO, RD 1 (Confidence=Medium)