UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs. Klein (5/31/25)
Note: Please read the full analysis, that is much more important than who I pick to win. The confidence relates to my pick to win, not the path to victory. Picks are NOT bets. Matchup breakdowns are written by Brett unless otherwise noted, and all DraftKings analysis is written by Brett. Both Technical Tim and Luke Lampe will also contribute to matchup breakdowns.
Note from Brett: I am working ahead more than usual these next two events because I am traveling to see family next week. Because of this, I have more matchup analysis written down on the fights that Tim and Luke are covering, and I decided to include that in the breakdown as “Brett’s Notes.” A lot of the information will be duplicated from Tim’s and Luke’s analysis, but I figured I might as well include it in case you want to compare notes.
MAIN CARD
Erin Blanchfield vs. Maycee Barber
Fight Odds: Blanchfield -228, Barber +191
Odds to Finish: +160
DraftKings Salaries: Blanchfield 9.1k, Barber 7.1k
Weight Class: 125
Despite a recent setback in her first UFC main event, Erin Blanchfield is still firmly entrenched in this upper-echelon of the women’s flyweight division, and she’ll get another proving grounds opportunity against fellow youthful prospect Maycee Barber on Saturday.
Blanchfield is now 13-2 professionally at age 26, and she’s accrued a 7-1 record in the UFC with a few of those victories coming inside the distance.
Her only loss was in her last main event opportunity, which came in 2024 against Manon Fiorot, and that victory for Fiorot is what set her up for her eventual title shot this past month. Fiorot largely outstruck Blanchfield from distance in that contest, outlanding her 172-130 over five rounds, and she earned a 50-45 decision across each scorecard.
Prior to that bout, we shared some concerns about Blanchfield’s style and how she may be too dependent on takedowns for someone who isn’t a particularly strong wrestler. While her submission grappling game is still very legit, Blanchfield has only landed three takedowns on her last 28 attempts, and simply cannot get the fight to the mat with any consistency.
I personally think that it’s a physical issue, as well as a technical issue. Blanchfield is just not an explosive athlete and I believe she will continue to struggle against the top of the division for this reason.
Blanchfield is a black belt in jiu-jitsu though, and her submission grappling and pacing have been the biggest factors in her success. She still lands 1.86 takedowns per 15 minutes and can swarm opponents on the mat, transition to dominant positions and finish them off.
She’s also shown to have a similar style standing, with the ability to pressure, annoy, and swarm her opponents. Though in comparison to her submission grappling, her striking is still not fully developed or technical, and it’s arguably a liability in her game.
Again, I think her lack of effectiveness on the feet is largely a physical issue, but a technical one as well. She throws a lot of arm punches and just doesn’t land very impactfully. It’s going to put her behind the 8-ball against a lot of opponents who pack more power and are proven to be effective at range.
However, Blanchfield’s pacing can make up for it. She’s landed 130 and 110 sig. strikes in each of her last two five-round fights, which is very strong. Her cardio is largely fantastic, and the ability to keep up a high pace will certainly wear down some opponents and allow her to stay competitive in rounds. But she’s simply not very impactful with those strikes, and that’s going to limit her in her current state.
Blanchfield’s wrestling is really the glue to her game because it’s the transitional point between her striking and grappling, and unfortunately, that’s where we still have some question marks.
While Blanchfield has had lots of success, it’s come primarily against weaker opponents who have poor histories of defending in grappling exchanges. While I can’t dock her for that, it would be ideal to see her wrestling translate easily to a better tier of competition, but it mostly has not. To her benefit, most fighters in this division aren’t strong defensively, so it’s not as if Blanchfield will get fully shut down often.
Blanchfield was shut out against JJ Aldrich though, going 0/4 there, and she was shut out against Taila Santos, going 0/14. Granted, she still found a way to pull off wins in both matchups, but it’s not a case of Blanchfield having such dominant wrestling that we’re confident it will be enough to easily get past the upper tier of this division. She then went 0/3 on takedowns against Fiorot, and most recently went 2/8 against Namajunas.
It just puts a cloud of concern over Blanchfield for me because it’s put her in a situation where she will either A) land takedowns, which likely leads to domination, or B) not land takedowns, which likely leads to her losing rounds and/or potentially losing the fight.
Blanchfield is only 26 years old though, which is important to remember. She’s still in the developing stages of her professional career, which is both a good thing and a bad thing.
It’s a good thing because we should expect continued improvements in areas she might be weak, and in terms of future potential, Blanchfield has a ton of it. The downside is that at age 26, it is still quite possible that she gets thrown into the fire too soon, and won’t live up to the immediate hype.
Maycee Barber has been considered “the future” of this division for quite some time, though she’s only 27 years old now and inching toward the title picture.
Barber is 14-2 professionally and 9-2 in the UFC, and it’s very likely that a win over Blanchfield will put her into a No. 1 contender spot.
Barber is of the new breed of fighter who has grown up training mixed martial arts, rather than one or two specific disciplines. It’s given her a well-rounded style at a young age, and she’s been able to showcase some upside both on the feet and on the mat in the UFC.
With that said, she’s had some growing pains too. She was beaten up badly by Roxanne Modafferi and injured her knee in the process, and then followed up that loss with another loss to Alexa Grasso in 2021.
Since then Barber has rattled of six consecutive victories, though two of them have come via split decision to both Miranda Maverick and Andrea Lee. The Lee victory was semi-controversial as both sides had striking success but Lee landed five additional takedowns.
Most recently, Barber finished Amanda Ribas impressively with ground-and-pound in the second round, and she convincingly beat Katlyn Cerminara with wrestling and additional ground-and-pound.
Barber has a completely different style than Blanchfield, and completely different attributes. I don’t consider Barber to be great in any area, but she is physical and she is effective.
Primarily from the clinch, we’ve seen Barber beat women up in this division and finish them off, and she’s accrued several victories by TKO which is not standard for WMMA. She clearly carries power, and that power has been a real separator for her in many matchups.
At the same time, Barber isn’t a real separator in any other area of the game. Her pure striking metrics look great, as she lands 4.70 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 2.90 per minute. A lot of those strikes come in the clinch and on the mat though. Purely at distance though, Barber is only landing 4.4 strikes per minute while absorbing 4.2 per minute.
As a wrestler, Barber is OK. She lands 1.44 takedowns per 15 minutes and is coming off a career high of four takedowns landed against Cerminara. She isn’t the best control grappler or submission grappler, but she can land some brutal shots on the mat and really do damage when she does maintain control. I believe she is a purple belt in BJJ officially.
Her defense is pretty mediocre though, and she only defends takedowns at 53 percent. She has been taken down by seven of her past eight opponents, and she can be stuck on her back for some time.
That is really what gives Blanchfield the most hope in this matchup. I don’t think Blanchfield can easily toss Barber to the mat, or outphysical her, but Barber doesn’t have elite takedown defense and if Blanchfield attempts takedowns at a standard rate, she’ll likely land some.
Blanchfield has a whopping 96% control rate from the clinch and on the mat, while Barber is only in control at 39%. I think Barber can potentially land 1-2 takedowns as well due to her physical advantages, though Blanchfield defends at 80%, I mostly think Blanchfield will stand back upright without too much difficulty if that does occur.
If Blanchfield gets on top of Barber, she could easily control her for multiple minutes and win rounds with some ground-and-pound. Barber will likely give up her back to stand up so that will present Blanchfield opportunities to jump on a dominant position and maybe threaten for a submission.
The quicker Blanchfield can land takedowns and establish control, the easier and more dominant the matchup will be.
If Barber can keep the fight upright, she’ll have a real chance to win. She is far more powerful and effective than Blanchfield, and I would probably favor her outright on those dynamics alone.
Blanchfield does fight at a higher pace though. She’s landing 6.7 strikes per minute at distance while absorbing 6.8, which again suggests her lack of effectiveness. But as far as pacing, Blanchfield may still be in Barber’s face, throwing a lot of arm punches for five rounds. It could easily lead to competitive rounds if Barber isn’t able to land big shots.
Mostly, I would guess striking rounds would be competitive. Barber hasn’t shown enough pacing upside for me to think she blows Blanchfield out of the water and she doesn’t compare to Fiorot defensively. Blanchfield throws more and Barber throws harder, and that type of dynamic gives both fighters an opportunity to win rounds.
I think we have to favor Blanchfield outright for her additional grappling path, where I’d be more surprised if Barber was able to win rounds on the mat. Barber’s lack of wrestling defense should give Blanchfield a reasonable floor of takedowns landed, which I’m guessing will be enough for her to ultimately win the fight.
But if this is another pure striking fight, Barber is absolutely live to win on damage and optics, and given Blanchfield’s lack of consistent wrestling success, I’m open to the idea that this fight plays out more competitively than the betting line suggests.
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On DraftKings, both sides of the main event are going to be extremely viable on a shorter slate.
Blanchfield will rate out among the very top of the list this week at 9.1k, and I expect her to be among the most chalky fighters on the entire slate as well.
Even in three-round decision wins, Blanchfield has scored 126, 115 and 81, and in her lone five-round win, she scored 117 fantasy points. She is not going to win this fight without producing a lot of offense, and I do expect a chunk of it will come on the mat.
Granted, I’m not certain she wins, but I consider Blanchfield among the very best plays this week for her floor/ceiling combination in a win. I would not mind prioritizing her outright, even ahead of some of the superior finishing options nearby.
The worst case scenario I suppose would be if Blanchfield wins a close split decision, where she cannot wrestle. This fight is likely to go the distance and Blanchfield is only +250 ITD. She would have only scored 84 points in a decision win against Fiorot, for example, but the reality is she lost every single round so it’s difficult to do a 1 to 1 comparison.
At such high public ownerships, it’s never wrong to pivot away at times to be more unique, but I expect I’ll end up with heavy exposure to Blanchfield by default. Her chances of exceeding value and contending for the optimal lineup are too high in a base win case over five rounds.
Barber at 7.1k is a pretty good option as well.
In tournaments, she’s an especially strong target as one way to get off the most chalky constructions which will include Blanchfield. And if Barber wins, I expect a very strong score as well. Her ceiling won’t exceed that of Blanchfield’s on paper because Blanchfield has so much more grappling upside, but Blanchfield can still give up a couple of takedowns here and there, so Barber isn’t without grappling equity.
Plus, if Barber wins, she’ll still need to keep up with the pace of Blanchfield. She can mix in takedowns, lots of strikes, and non-significant strikes as well. I’m not certain she would reach 100 points but she would certainly exceed value at 7.1k.
A finish isn’t realistic at +475 ITD, but Barber is very damaging so a random TKO is on the table in theory. I wouldn’t bet on it.
In general, I just consider Barber a fine secondary option. I don’t think she wins the fight but it could still be semi-competitive and she has a path to victory. She will be owned but not nearly as highly owned as Blanchfield will be.
Even in a loss, I wouldn’t completely rule out Barber being optimal. I’m not a fan of stacking usually but I could see a scenario where Blanchfield scores in the low 100s and is optimal, and Barber scores 50+ in a loss, beating out the rest of this bottom tier.
There is enough win equity in this range that I would still prefer to play others and avoid the tournament stack, but I wouldn’t completely rule it out this week.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Blanchfield by Decision (Confidence=Medium)
Mateusz Gamrot vs. Ludovit Klein
Fight Odds: Gamrot -163, Klein +141
Odds to Finish: +200
DraftKings Salaries: Gamrot 8.5k, Klein 7.7k
Weight Class: 155
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a really good matchup here in the lightweight division between longtime UFC veterans Mateusz Gamrot and Ludovit Klein. This is the best fight on the card skill wise and should probably be the main event.
Gamrot is pretty good. He comes from a grappling background as he wrestled in his homeland of Poland. He also is a solid no gi BJJ competitor who has won several tournaments in Europe, and has competed against some of the best grapplers in the world in ADCC. So he is a well-rounded grappler and it shows in his fights.
Gamrot lands 5.25 takedowns per 15 minutes and attempts 15 takedowns per fight. Therefore, he is literally attempting a takedown every single minute which is a style that I love. I also love the style even more if someone has the cardio to implement it and Gamrot definitely does. This guy landed two takedowns in rounds four and five against Arman Tsarukyan, so Gamrot’s cardio is clearly a strength of his.
I really like his style of takedowns too. He goes to a lot of low singles which is extremely rare. Guys can’t really defend them as most mma fighters are trained to stop double legs and general single legs.
I just love Gamrot’s takedown consistency. He has taken down all 10 of his UFC opponents. In his six fights that have gone past round two, he has landed 5, 6, 4, 4, 11, and 5 takedowns. That is just incredible consistency man. In a three round fight, you have to expect him to land at least a takedown per round.
I don’t think Gamrot’s top control is great but he has generally been trying to control really good grapplers. I definitely think he can control lesser grapplers in this division.
Gamrot is coming off a loss against Dan Hooker. However, he arguably won that fight and Hooker is a good fighter who showed up in that fight. Had Gamrot not been hurt at the end of round one, Gamrot would have surely gotten the round and the fight.
The weakness of Gamrot’s game is his striking. He only lands 3.23 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.22 in return. He does defend strikes at a decent 58 percent. Gamrot isn’t a terrible striker and he does have a little bit of power. However, he just doesn’t put up a ton of activity. He only landed 33, 52, 64, and 57 significant strikes in his four fights that went to three round decisions. They were against good competition, but I just don’t totally love that activity upside.
Again, Gamrot is capable as he even struck competitively with Rafael Fiziev. He just doesn’t have a high ceiling as a striker though as his volume is just a bit limited.
Gamrot can be hurt. He has been knocked down five times in the UFC. He is very tough and won’t quit. However, I don’t like that he gets hurt consistently.
Gamrot’s competition has been stellar though and he is actually 7-3 in the UFC which is great. I think Gamrot’s high wrestling volume style also just gives him a high floor. His three losses were all by decision and two of them were split decisions where he should have probably gotten the nod in both.
Gamrot will be taking on UFC veteran Ludovit Klein who has won his last four matchups. I think a lot of fighters can learn from Ludovit Klein. I had never been high on Klein, but he actually impressed me in his last few matchups by simply being more aggressive.
I really liked his win against Ignacio Bahamondes. He struck competitively on the feet with the longer and bigger Bahamondes and hurt him at times. Klein also landed three takedowns and obtained six minutes of control in that fight. It was the best performance of Klein’s career thus far.
Klein then beat the crap out of an outmatched AJ Cunningham and was super aggressive in that fight. He most recently put it on Thiago Moises and just mauled him and hurt him several times en route to a dominant decision win. He also outwrestled Moises which was nice to see. Klein then outwrestled Roosevelt Roberts most recently.
Klein is a bit of a freestyle fighter, and he is a tough and seasoned fighter with a lot of experience. As a striker, Klein lands 3.81 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.22 in return. He defends strikes at 54 percent. Those are okay metrics.
I don’t consider Klein a great striker and his striking volume has been a concern in the past. However, Klein does have some power and can generally at least have competitive exchanges which keeps him in the fight. He is competent and experienced as a striker and has outstruck guys like Devonte Smith, Mason Jones, and Ignacio Bahamondes. So he is decent as a striker. He has a good one-two out of the southpaw stance and has a sneaky left head kick.
Klein can also wrestle a bit too. He lands 1.70 takedowns per 15 minutes and is fully capable of taking down guys and holding top position. He also defends takedowns at 91 percent which is solid. I thought his defensive wrestling looked good against Thiago Moises. However, I do think good wrestlers can at least land takedowns on Klein.
Klein is overall just a well-rounded fighter. He can strike a bit and wrestle a bit, has a lot of experience, and a bit of power.
I still do have concerns with Klein though. His striking volume at times is not great and he has never landed more than 60 significant strikes in a fight.
Klein also just has a few randomly awful performances. He has a terrible loss to Michael Trizano. He also had a draw to Jai Herbert where he would have certainly lost had Herbert not been deducted a point. Klein slowed down terribly in that fight and I actually do question his cardio in a high-paced action fight.
So Klein does have some flaws and I do think it is possible that he has future performances that are head scratchers like he has in the past.
However, Klein has shown more consistent offense in his last few fights and I do think he is heading in the right direction. His wins have come against poor competition generally though like Roberts, Moises, and Cunningham. The Bahamondes win was a good win though. I do respect Klein. He is a fine fighter. I still just think it is possible he has some weaknesses that we just haven’t seen in a while.
As far as this matchup goes, I think I have to pick Gamrot because he is so likely to land takedowns over the course of 15 minutes. I know Klein has 91 percent takedown defense and shut down Moises recently. However, Gamrot is by far the best wrestler Klein has faced and shoots a different style of takedowns with a hard pace. I just don’t think Klein will completely shut that down. So I do expect Klein to get taken down a few times here.
I do think Klein can stop some takedowns though and probably work up at times too. He does seem competent. The issue is Klein may tire out here. We have seen Klein slow down badly before and he is probably going to face more takedown attempts and a higher pace than he has ever faced in his career.
I still think Klein is a more dangerous striker than Gamrot though. If these guys strike, Klein could easily hurt Gamrot. Gamrot just gets hurt a lot. So Klein is live to win this fight for that reason alone.
The issue is if Klein’s power does not show up, I can’t see him winning this fight cleanly and I would actually be surprised if he won. If this fight goes 15 minutes, Klein is probably getting taken down 4-5 times and each guy generally lands 40-60 strikes a fight, so it will probably be competitive on the feet.
Gamrot should win that fight more often than not, and I feel Klein is a bit power dependent in this matchup. Gamrot is also bigger than Klein and has three inches of height on him which should help him here.
So I am going to go with Gamrot. He could get hurt and knocked out. He could get hurt a couple of times and lose a decision because of it. However, Gamrot has never been finished in his career. Klein has only knocked out two UFC opponents and they were two terrible ones in Shane Young and AJ Cunningham. So I think Gamrot more often than not survives and just strikes competitively on volume, lands some takedowns, and picks up another win.
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Brett’s Notes: This is a bit of a weird one as I’ve been trying to fade Gamrot recently, and I suppose I did so successfully in his last loss against Dan Hooker. I’ve come around on Klein as a talent as well, where I wasn’t as high on him early in his career.
But in terms of the matchup, it’s tough to quantify how much wrestling success Gamrot can have because Klein really has not fought many strong wrestlers. In 10 UFC fights, who is the best wrestler Klein has faced? Mason Jones? Thiago Moises? He stopped all three attempts from Jones and eight from Moises, and his official takedown defense sits at an impressive 91 percent, but I consider Gamrot a clear step up from those opponents.
Gamrot can be relentless too. He’s landed 4+ takedowns in six of his last seven fights, and against good competition too like Tsarukyan and Dariush. Jai Herbert and Nate Landwehr have takedowns over Klein. Ultimately, I have to project Gamrot to continue wrestling successfully against Klein as well.
But I really am not certain how much success he will have, and I think it ranges from a very minimal amount of success, to a lot of success and a submission win. Gamrot has an ADCC background and can be a dangerous submission grappler at times, though he’s actually only subbed one of his 10 UFC opponents. Klein was subbed by Landwehr which is a really bad look, but more due to the pressure and chaotic nature of Landwehr fights, and that was also nearly five years ago.
Ultimately, I’m open to the idea Gamrot simply continues to wrestle, lands some takedowns and earns some control, and wins the fight.
I like Klein as the more technical striker of the two, and one of the reasons I’ve wanted to get on the Gamrot fade train is because he gets hurt a lot in fights. He’s been dropped in five of his 10 UFC fights, and that doesn’t even include his last loss against Hooker who hurt him as well. It’s a major red flag for me and something I think is mildly predictive.
In a pure kickboxing fight, Klein should win, and he has more damage upside than Gamrot. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Klein hurt Gamrot. I should note that Gamrot has still never been knocked out in the UFC despite being dropped by five opponents. Some of that is luck but some of that is toughness, and he’s actually won three of those five fights which is crazy.
I would really be a lot higher on Klein if he fought at a higher pace. But one of my issues with him historically is that he has low striking counts. He’s too slow paced and he can get himself in trouble by losing minutes to higher paced opponents. He’s literally never topped 60 sig. strikes and he’s gone the distance seven times… that’s awful…
Gamrot will still throw strikes, and he just landed 64 sig. strikes against Hooker. He shouldn’t be the better striker and I don’t think he’s knocking Klein out, but I am afraid he keeps up enough with Klein on the numbers to where 2-4 takedowns could be the separator.
My hope is that Klein can defend and scramble urgently, and pick Gamrot apart from the outside. Maybe hurt him. But it’s hard to give him more than 50% win equity when his pacing is weak and Gamrot has 5+ takedown upside on paper.
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On DraftKings, I actually consider Gamrot a very strong target this week despite my concerns.
Essentially, I think he has a clear path to victory with a high volume of takedowns, and I think it’s pretty realistic that he can succeed in that gameplan.
There is still some downside, and we’ve seen him only score 84 and 86 in recent wins. If Klein can defend takedowns, that will dramatically decrease Gamrot’s upside to the point that I’d have little interest in playing him.
We’ve also seen Gamrot score 131 in his most recent win, which came in a three-round fight. So despite some floor concerns, or dependency on wrestling, Gamrot has a legit ceiling as well.
I’m hesitant to cite his other strong scores which have come with finishes, as I don’t think he’s very likely to finish Klein. But Klein has been subbed before, and Gamrot has some sub equity at +550 ITD.
He’s also just cheap this week and I think he will fit in nicely given that price tag.
To me, I just don’t think it’s smart to avoid Gamrot given his wrestling style. The worst case scenario in a win is probably 10x ish, and the most realistic case is probably 90-100 points which should have him contending for the optimal.
I’m unsure if he will be popular as his historic scores are strong, but many are picking against him this week. So I’d be a little careful about overplaying him with the other chalky fighters on this slate, but if he projects to be more of a secondary target publicly, I wouldn’t mind coming in overweight personally.
Just given his volume wrestling capabilities, I’ll probably end up with a fair amount of exposure to Gamrot this week.
Klein at 7.7k is a much tougher call.
I do think he could hurt Gamrot but without a knockout, I’m not sure he can be optimal.
There’s a good chance that even in a win, Gamrot has some wrestling and control success. Klein never even reaches 60 sig. strikes anyway, and despite having some wrestling upside in past matchups, I don’t think he has much against Gamrot.
So my fear is that even in a win, Klein lands 60 strikes and that’s it. There’s a good chance he fails to reach 10x. In five UFC decision wins, Klein has never reached 90 points, and he’s only topped 80 points in 3/5, which all had wrestling or KD components.
I don’t mind Klein as a low-end secondary target, as he might be able to knock down or knock Gamrot out. He’s +300 to win ITD which is OK. Plus he could provide some leverage. I just don’t think he’s a great fantasy scorer and without a big finishing moment, I worry he won’t produce enough offense to push himself onto the optimal.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Gamrot by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Billy Ray Goff vs. Ramiz Brahimaj
Fight Odds: Goff -359, Brahimaj +284
Odds to Finish: -215
DraftKings Salaries: Goff 8.3k, Brahimaj 6.7k
Weight Class: 170
I was actually pretty excited for Billy Goff’s original matchup but I’m also excited for his replacement matchup against Ramiz Brahimaj, as Goff is an action fighter and will bring the pace no matter who is standing in front of him.
Goff is a workman type, like Billy Quarantillo, who is known for taking some damage and then breaking guys. We’ve already seen that type of outcome from him on the Contender Series, where Goff was dropped with a head kick in like the first 30 seconds, but he immediately fought back and won by TKO in the first round himself.
Then in his UFC debut, Goff was a dog to Japanese prospect Yusaku Kinoshita, and Goff poured on the pace, dropping Kinoshita with a body shot in the first round while landing 40 sig. strikes in less than four minutes.
Most recently, Goff had a pretty fun war against Trey Waters, and although he lost a decision, he still outlanded Waters 116 to 96 and had plenty of positive moments throughout the fight
Goff is now 9-3 professionally with seven wins by knockout, and he’s fought decent competition on the regional scene as well. He went a hard three rounds with Sean Lally in a high paced matchup, and I generally have a lot of confidence in his gas tank.
He also fought Justin Sumter on the regionals, who had his back early and had him in a dangerous spot. But Goff came back to beat Sumter up and TKO him in the second round.
I just really like Goff because he’s going to fight for your money. He loves to trade in the pocket and can throw a ton of volume, and that style can break a lot of opponents.
He can also wrestle, and his offensive grappling is alright. He’s not a guy who projects to dominate good grapplers, which is an issue for his ceiling, but he also may dominate weak grapplers.
The other downside is just that he’s probably open defensively as well because he fights too aggressively, and that could lead to him getting hurt, taken down, or just losing fights against technical opponents. Waters was bigger than him and was pumping out the jab which landed a lot.
Ultimately, Goff’s pace is the best thing about his game, and he should continue to be in a lot of fun fights because of it.
Ramiz Brahimaj is coming off the best win of his pro career, which was a first-round KO over Mickey Gall last November.
He’s now 3-3 in the UFC with all three wins coming in round one, and all three losses coming in round three or by decision.
Brahimaj is now 11-5 professionally with all 11 wins coming inside the distance, including 10 by submission and the lone TKO victory over Gall. All but one of those wins came in round one.
He’s proven to be an ultra boom or bust fighter in that sense, and in his extended fights, Brahimaj has largely looked atrocious. Coming from a submission grappling background, with all of his regional wins ending via submission, it was shocking that Brahimaj chose not to wrestle at all in his UFC debut against Max Griffin, and was outboxed for a few rounds before he had his ear torn off his head.
Against Court McGee, Brahimaj was thoroughly dominated, outwrestled 5:1, and controlled for eight of the final 10 minutes. Against Themba Gorimbo, it was much of the same, as Gorimbo outwrestled him 5:1, and controlled him for seven of the final 10 minutes.
In the interim, Brahimaj quickly submitted both Sasha Palantikov and Micheal Gillmore by RNC, who are both really low-level opponents.
Given how his fights have played out, it’s impossible to project Brahimaj for much success outside of the first round. On the regionals, Brahimaj had a tendency to go balls to the wall early in fights, throwing heavy leather and shooting for takedowns. He has a decent series of chokes, which he’s shown within the UFC, ultimately taking the back and submitting opponents with a RNC.
He’s physical enough to get fighters to the mat early and can probably continue to show off a good back take, but it’s hard to expect much more.
This feels like a horrible matchup for Brahimaj on paper against Goff, who is a pace devil and someone who can absolutely survive early exchanges and break Brahimaj down over the course of 15 minutes.
The one piece of hope I have for Brahimaj is what I mentioned within Goff’s breakdown – I have seen him get taken down, give up his back early and put in a dangerous position. I do think Brahimaj has some early upside for that reason.
However, Goff survived that exchange and was totally unfazed, and knocked his opponent out early in the second round. Brahimaj hasn’t technically been knocked unconscious in the UFC as his lone TKO loss came from the ear injury, though he was dropped by McGee. I think it’s pretty likely Goff can hurt him and finish the fight though once this extends past the halfway point.
Early on, sure, this could definitely be a battle. Maybe Brahimaj has improved his striking too and can contest Goff on the feet for a bit. Goff can be hit. I do want to note that I thought Goff struggled a bit with Waters due to Waters’ size. Waters is 6’5” which is freaking massive for welterweight, with a 77-inch reach. Goff is only 5’10” tall with a 72-inch reach. However, Brahimaj is also 5’10” with a 72-inch reach.
It’s just impossible to project Brahimaj for any extended success, and I can’t imagine him winning late rounds without drastically improved cardio.
I won’t rule out an early slip-up, but Goff has the tools to win here. He can land takedowns too and Brahimaj is defending them at 44 percent. Goff throws a million strikes and should easily clear Brahimaj on volume. I would expect some fun early minutes but sooner or later Brahimaj will be gassed out and shooting desperation takedowns, which I think will eventually lead to him getting finished.
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On DraftKings, I knew as soon as the matchup was announced that Goff would be the ultra chalk on this slate.
He was priced at 8.3k in his original matchup, and will remain there against Brahimaj, though he’s now the biggest favorite on the slate pushing -350 to win. He will also carry a very strong ITD line compared to most others on this slate at -115, and is going to project as the best option points-per-dollar by a mile.
I honestly love him as a target too, for the reasons explained above. Even in a loss, Goff managed 61 points which means he would have scored 91 had the decision gone his way. He has much more finishing equity here than in that matchup, and much more wrestling equity too.
Wrestling isn’t guaranteed though, so I suppose a striking based decision where Brahimaj has early success would be the way for Goff to underperform and miss the optimal lineup. I still think he’s very likely to land multiple takedowns as Brahimaj tires, and he has 100+ sig. strike upside as well.
He’s also 8.3k, on a slate where there are lots of fights expected to go the distance. Even if Goff was 9.5k, I’d be targeting him in this particular matchup. I don’t think he’s guaranteed to hit a ceiling but ultimately Goff has the best win equity on the entire slate, at a cheap price tag, and is extremely likely to exceed value in a victory.
He should be ultra chalky as mentioned though, so pivoting away on occasion is fine. I would still prioritize him personally and simply find a different way to be unique, which could include leaving lots of salary on the table.
Brahimaj is still priced at 6.7k and is the cheapest fighter on the slate.
I don’t love him, obviously, but I don’t hate him either. His path to victory is almost certainly an early finish, probably by submission. He won’t rate out too well with an +335 ITD line, but he still carries a decent ceiling and tons of leverage against Goff.
Brahimaj already scored 112, 98 and 105 in his three UFC wins and I’d expect him to match that and be optimal if he pulls off the upset again. There’s no need to have lots of exposure here, but I don’t mind a sprinkle. I do think he can land an early takedown and have one or two decent moments before he tires out.
This is a pure punt play but one with upside, and ultimately it’s one of the best matchups on the entire slate to target for pacing and ceiling.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Goff by TKO, RD 3 (Confidence=Medium-High)
Dustin Jacoby vs. Bruno Lopes
Fight Odds: Jacoby -199, Lopes +169
Odds to Finish: -150
DraftKings Salaries: Jacoby 8.8k, Lopes 7.4k
Weight Class: 205
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Dustin Jacoby’s a Contender Series alum from the 2020 season who had a pretty hot start to his UFC run but has cooled off a bit in recent years when facing higher levels of competition – he’s 8-4-1 in the UFC and 20-9-1 as a pro. Bruno Lopes is a two-time Contender Series alum who made good on his 2nd opportunity, earning a contract last year. He’s coming off a successful debut upset over Magomed Gadzhiyasulov back in January – he’s 14-1 as a pro.
The striking component:
Jacoby is a long-time kickboxer who bounced back and forth between MMA over the years. But he’s been full time back into MMA now the last 6-7 years since joining the UFC.
Jacoby can fight from both stances but primarily likes to fight orthodox. He’s not the biggest 205er in the world but he’s got decent hand speed. As per being a decorated kickboxer, everything he throws is crisp, tight and accurate. But one of the best components of his game are his kicks.
We saw him really beat up Ledet’s legs badly in their fight which actually dropped Ledet. He also chewed up the legs of Grishin, but it wasn’t as debilitating as in the Ledet fight – he will attack the body and head as well. His diversity of attack and technical acumen on display gives credence to his higher-level kickboxing background.
Statistically, he lands 6.1 SLpM at 48% and 6.6 DLpM at 46% — great numbers generally but especially at 205.
The only real issue I have with him on the feet is that he’s not great defensively. He can stand very upright and hang out in the pocket a bit too long after combos.
In that, he eats 4.6 SApM at 56% and 4.9 DApM at 58%. He’s done well keeping guys on the end of their shots at times but in others, not so much. He got dropped early twice by Grishin but did survive the bombs of Cutelaba – albeit took some damage there but primarily in the clinch from back ride.
But he also handled the power shots of Khalil well too, who we know is a very big hitter. He held Khalil to just 25% accuracy to the head – I thought that was a bad decision and Jacoby won the first two rounds like most people – actually thought there was a better argument for Jacoby 30-27 than Khalil 29-28.
He looked pretty flat in his fight against Murzakanov though, where he got hurt twice in the early rounds and then just came on too late in the fight. He was on his way to beating Menifield but got dropped late in the fight which dropped him the decision. He also got torched early by Reyes.
But he’s coming off handling the power shots of Petrino generally well and actually scored a late KO for himself in what was a tight fight prior.
Overall, I still value Jacoby’s striking acumen and he’ a guy with cheeky power but he’s also 37 years old now with a lot of tread on the tires, which is starting to catch up to him.
Lopes comes from a muay thai background and works in a more traditional marauding type of style.
Despite marching forward most of the time, his volume patterns haven’t been very consistent as he tends to fight in bursts, looking to time his flurries. I also don’t think he’s the most technical guy in the world as he can be wild in the pocket with overhands and looping hooks.
He does have some power when he lands flush though with six of his 14 wins coming via KO – I’ve seen him hurt guys with a wide array of shots between hooks, straights, body shots and elbows in the clinch.
Defensively, given some of his more winging tendencies in the pocket, his head doesn’t come off the center line much which is what got him flatlined in his first Contender Series fight by Ribeiro. He also got dropped with a right hand in his most recent Contender Series fight albeit he recovered quickly – he was still very linear in going straight backwards and not circling off which is what got him caught.
In his debut, we didn’t get much distance time but he got outlanded 24-8 by Gadzhiyasulov as the range game of the Russian gave him some issues along with leg kicks.
Overall, he seems like a relatively exploitable opponent with the right guy across from him, but he does hit hard and can pressure effectively at times.
How it plays out: Off the top, Jacoby will realize a slight length advantage of 1” in height and 2” in reach but Lopes will serve as the “denser” guy as are most of Jacoby’s opponents. Jacoby profiles as a tricky matchup for Lopes in the sense that he’s the more mobile, technically proficient party who in a vacuum fights at a much higher work rate. Also, despite referencing some of my defensive issues with Jacoby, he is better defensively on an exchange to exchange basis in comparison to Lopes who takes a more plodding approach. It’s that last point as to why I feel Jacoby will realize a healthy amount of success – coupled with the fact he’s just the more experienced striker. Jacoby will also probably realize a lot of kicking success here as well. With all of that being said, Lopes does have power and Jacoby’s been significantly hurt in three of his last five fights, so Lopes bonking wouldn’t be the most shocking outcome to me. But I also think Jacoby has real KO equity here as well given Lopes’ linear style.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Jacoby’s defensive wrestling/grappling was what got him bounced out of the UFC in his first stint back in 2012.
However, he’s clearly improved his TDD since by digging underhooks and circling off the cage. I.e. he fought a wrestler in his Contender Series fight where Jacoby stuffed 10 of 11 TDs. Grishin also went 0-2 in a fight where many thought Grishin would have success getting him down.
Cutelaba took him down nine times but on 19 attempts and only got four minutes of control time – all things considered, not too bad but that was a significant component to what made the fight close – Jacoby also took that one on shorter notice. More recently, Murzakanov went 1/5 and Menifield went 1/2.
He’s gone to the offensive wrestling on occasion but it’s not really his game and hasn’t had much success – him going to it late against Murzakanov was kind of dumb considering he was down two rounds.
Overall, his control ratios are essentially a wash in his 2nd run, with grappling only consisting of 16% of his total fight time.
In addition to Lopes’ muay thai background, he’s a more recently crowned BJJ black belt.
He’s not the type to be diving on legs for 15 minutes traditionally but he usually looks to mix TDs into his fights where he’s had some success, primarily from the body lock.
His top game is a little loose/sloppy, but he usually does a good job of staying on guys despite them being able to create space. Five of his 14 wins come via submission with three specifically via arm triangle which are the last three he’s secured.
I don’t think he’s some high-level grappler but definitely capable of winning fights that way if opponents don’t come correct.
We did see him take a more proactive wrestling approach last time out though which I thought was a smart game plan considering he wasn’t realizing much success at range – he only went 5/14 on TDs and couldn’t hold Gadzhiyasulov down but was able to control him against the fence which is what ultimately got his hand raised.
Defensively, there’s not much to say as he’s stuffed all the TDAs that I’ve seen attempted on him – he does a good job of lowering his frame and fighting off one of the securing hands which has been good to see. The last two guys he fought were base Caucus wrestlers and he was able to stay upright on all attempts which was good to see – granted both aren’t very good.
Given that he’s stuffed everything so far, Lopes as a bottom commodity is still a question mark.
Overall, given the lack of grappling depth at 205, I’d anticipate Lopes to realize some floor success in the UFC as a competent ground fighter but he’s still nothing special.
How it plays out: Given that Jacoby hasn’t shown much interest in wrestling and isn’t a grappler, the floor upside lies with Lopes. I honestly wouldn’t be surprised to see him take a similar approach to what he just did against Gadzhiyasulov – in fact, I think it would probably be smart. I don’t think he’s holding Jacoby down and he’ll have more issues with cage control in comparison to the last fight but it would still be smart in terms of looking to disrupt Jacoby rhythm and slog the fight down.
From one perspective, this seems like a levels fight as Jacoby’s a fringe top 15 fighter in the weight class with 2x the pro experience and Lopes is coming off beating a fraudulent Russian in his UFC debut. Jacoby is objectively the better talent. But as noted, I still have durability concerns with him, he’s getting up there in age and Lopes has some theoretical grappling upside. For those reasons, I can’t say I’m supremely confident in Jacoby coupled with it being a light-heavyweight fight which is a division that will produce variance. But Bruno Lopes would also be the worst loss of Jacoby’s career, which is hard to ignore. Jacoby should get the job done here if he doesn’t get clipped.
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Brett’s Notes: I’ve long been a fan of Dustin Jacoby and I was thrilled to see him score a thunderous KO against Vitor Petrino last time out.
Jacoby is a career kickboxer and he’s always going to have a shot to compete and win stand-up fights. He’s very experienced, very technical, and his pacing is pretty solid. He’s been a bit inconsistent and can fight to the pace of his opponent, but he still lands 5.33 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 4.05 per minute, which are pretty strong metrics.
Clearly, he has power as well, and he’s knocked out three up-and-comers in recent years in Petrino, Nzechukwu and Da Woon Jung.
Jacoby is 37 years old though, and deteriorating a bit. He’s long been a durable fighter, but he’s now been knocked down in three of his past five fights. He only lost one of those by TKO, but I don’t necessarily expect to see his durability improve, and he was even wobbled again by Petrino in his last matchup.
So Jacoby is in this tough position as it stands where he’s an older, aging, light heavyweight with some durability concerns. He won’t grapple offensively. He doesn’t always pull away from opponents, and I don’t think he’s an easy fighter to trust to win against the new crop of talent. But his veteran experience and skills should allow him to continue to remain competitive.
Bruno Lopes earned a win in his UFC debut in January against Gadzhiyasulov, as a fairly sizable underdog.
He’s now 14-1 professionally at age 32, and he’s earned six wins by TKO and five by submission. He had two fights on DWCS prior to earning a contract, losing the first by KO and winning the second by KO. Prior to that, he was the LFA champion.
Lopes isn’t a phenomenal athlete or fighter, but he’s relatively well-rounded. He has a muay thai background and carries power in his strikes. He can be a bit wild though, and he doesn’t throw at the highest volume. He’s averaging 2.89 sig. strikes landed per minute through 28 minutes of tracked cage time, which is pretty weak.
He can also be a bit defensively lackluster. I don’t think he’s the fastest fighter, so he’s there to be hit, and he doesn’t move his head a whole lot. Getting knocked unconscious by Brendson Ribeiro on DWCS wasn’t the best look.
Lopes is also a BJJ black belt and a willing wrestler. I definitely would not label him a great wrestler, but sometimes being willing is enough. He landed five takedowns in his debut on 14 attempts, which contributed to the victory. If he can maintain control, he can threaten for submissions, but I do think he’ll struggle against better athletes and better wrestlers.
This is an interesting matchup because Jacoby is definitely the more technical striker. It’s an easy pick to assume he can keep the fight upright and outland Lopes over the duration. He might even knock him out.
However, Lopes throws with enough power that it’s quite possible he could hurt Jacoby as well, and given Lopes fights at a more tepid pace, I think Jacoby will fight at a more tepid pace as well. I’m not sold Jacoby will completely run away with the volume though his upside is far higher.
Additionally, Lopes has all the grappling upside. I’ve always liked Jacoby’s defensive wrestling which stands at 62%, but more specifically it’s his willingness to scramble back up. Ion Cutelaba landed nine takedowns on him and couldn’t get the win. So again, it’s fair to believe Jacoby will just limit Lopes’ takedowns and force stand-up exchanges.
From a win equity standpoint, I am a bit nervous because if Lopes attempts takedowns at a high rate, he is probably landing a few. He may not be able to hold Jacoby down for long but he could earn some clinch control time, and his grappling may be enough to swing a close round.
I certainly view Jacoby as the better fighter and I think he’s a very fair pick to win. But I’m less comfortable with him at this stage of his career, and considering Lopes has both a path on the feet with damage, and a path on the mat, I think it’s fair to line this fight competitively and I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if Lopes pulled off the upset.
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On DraftKings, this fight is certainly a viable one as there is finishing equity on both sides.
Jacoby is going to profile as more of a boom or bust target though at 8.8k, which generally makes me hesitant to attack. Striking volume won’t get him there and he has no wrestling equity.
He can win by KO though. He’s a good striker with power and Lopes has already been knocked dead once. Jacoby is honestly a very reasonable tournament target, and his ITD line is solid at +150. I’d rate him as a solid secondary target to include with a larger portfolio, and it’s even possible he could be slightly underowned at this price tag.
I just like other fighters more, I guess, and I’m not particularly confident Jacoby does score the KO. He’ll work well in more mid-range based lineups which I do like this week too as one way to get off the chalky constructions. I don’t think I’d be aiming to come in overweight on Jacoby though but mixing him in feels fair.
Lopes at 7.4k is one underdog who I will be targeting, though not with much confidence.
I mostly like that he has multiple paths to victory, and both should score well. He either needs to hurt Jacoby, or take him down a bunch. He’s coming off a 93 point win in his UFC debut which I’d definitely take at this price tag again.
Perhaps that will mean Lopes will be semi-popular, which would kind of suck, but I’d still be willing to use him as a secondary target. He’s going to rate out kind of well for finishing equity with an ITD line of +275.
He’s just not a great fighter and far from a lock to win, so I’d be very careful about coming in heavy on Lopes. Mostly, it’s playing into some variance that exists with durability and in this division. Plus wrestling equity.
I do like this fight as one option that could end ITD but I’m hesitant to go balls to the wall on either side.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Jacoby by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Ketlen Vieira vs. Macy Chiasson
Fight Odds: Chiasson -119, Vieira +103
Odds to Finish: +240
DraftKings Salaries: Vieira 8.2k, Chiasson 8k
Weight Class: 135
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a fight between two longtime UFC bantamweight veterans here between Macy Chiasson and Ketlen Vieira.
Chiasson has a few things going for her. She generally doesn’t strike from distance that much. She eventually clinches up and is more comfortable winning fights in the clinch with position against the cage, or with takedowns and top position.
Chiasson lands 3.77 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.79 in return. Her numbers are skewed though because she lands a lot of ground-and-pound. Even Shana Young surprisingly outlanded Chiasson at distance. Chiasson just seems uncomfortable at distance. She was getting pieced up by Raquel Pennington and then was eventually finished.
Chiasson usually strikes from distance for moments and then the fight becomes a clinching affair and grappling match that Chiasson usually wins because of her physicality. I do think Chiasson has power though and is capable of hurting girls at range.
My issue with Chiasson is that she doesn’t have the best technical wrestling. She does land 2.37 takedowns per 15 minutes and defends takedowns at 70 percent. Those are decent metrics. However, she just isn’t the best technical wrestler, and I don’t totally trust her to land takedowns on anyone with competent takedown defense. We have also seen Chiasson taken down herself and struggle to get up. I mean this girl was outwrestled by Lina Lansberg and controlled for eight minutes on the mat so it is hard to trust her.
Chiasson is just big though and she has landed 12 takedowns in her last four fights. She also beat Norma Dumont and landed six takedowns in that fight which is a great win. So even though her takedowns look weird and awkward, she is a big girl and is somehow landing takedowns. Once on top, she is capable of using her size, and getting the back and beating girls up and threatening with submissions.
Chiasson will be taking on Ketlen Vieira. Vieira is a weird fighter in my mind. I don’t particularly think she is good, and I don’t personally enjoy watching her fight. However, WMMA and the 135 division in particular is just so bad that Vieira being somewhat well-rounded and physical makes her a borderline top contender by default lol.
Vieira comes from a Judo background and she is a competent grappler. She lands 1.39 takedowns per 15 minutes and attempts around three takedowns per fight. She is capable of landing takedowns and riding top position and is somewhat heavy in top position. As with most Judo players, Vieira is most threatening with her takedowns in the clinch when she can find those split seconds to explode when her opponents aren’t quite ready or aware that they are out of position.
Vieira generally defends takedowns very well and has an 88 percent TDD rate which is stellar. She just defended 6/8 takedowns against Kayla Harrison which was solid. So she is tough to take down.
I have seen Vieira on her back though and her get ups are not strong. If she gets taken down, she can lose an entire round. She can also be clinched up against the cage.
Vieira has actually struck a lot lately, and I do think her boxing has improved. She has good timing on the inside with her boxing combinations, and she definitely showed some skills in her win against Holly Holm.
I still just don’t fully trust Vieira on the feet though. She is still only landing 2.92 significant strikes per minute and absorbing 3.90 in return. She only defends strikes at 51 percent. Those are just hard metrics to be confident in. I do think Vieira hits above-average from a strike per strike basis though, so the effectiveness of her strikes swing the judges to her favor at times. So she will likely outperform her striking metrics in general.
She also has decent head strike metrics which helps her out. I still just think Vieira is more of a defensive fighter than an offensive fighter though.
As far as this matchup goes, this is a competitive one. I think Vieira is a more technical fighter. Vieira is probably the more technical grappler and striker. However, Chiasson is bigger here. She is three inches taller than Viera and has a four-inch reach advantage. That honestly may be the difference.
At range, I think this is really close. I think Viera is more technical as a striker but Chiasson hits harder. I think Chiasson will crash to the clinch though as she always does. I actually do think Chiasson is better in the clinch and could win portions of this fight by simply holding Viera there which could bleed the clock. Viera is really hard to take down so the fight could take place in the clinch for a while.
If Chiasson does land takedowns, I do think she can hold top position. Vieira has terrible get ups in general. Viera will be tough to finish on the mat though.
The issue is Viera could maybe land takedowns of her own as well and I think Chiasson has awful get-ups also. So the winner of this fight may just come down to who happens to land a takedown first. I think Viera is a better technical wrestler. However, Chiasson is bigger and more likely to pursue takedowns and offense in general.
I think this is just going to be a slop fest. I think Chiasson will crash the clinch and probably win portions of the fight there by being the bigger girl and holding Viera against the cage. Chiasson will probably struggle to land takedowns but could probably land one or two and win this fight. Viera could land one or two of her own as well though. I will go with Chiasson as size will likely matter here. I also like Chiasson’s offensive-mindedness more and she is probably more likely to win the clinch battle. This is a shitshow though and whoever happens to land a random takedown first will probably win this fight.
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Brett’s Notes: This is an ugly but semi-high profile fight in the women’s bantamweight division, that should be dictated by who can control where the fight takes place.
Chiasson is largely a clinch fighter, and that’s where she excels the most. She’s a big girl and can outmuscle opponents in the clinch, and land plenty of strikes in that area as well.
Chiasson will also wrestle and is averaging 2.37 takedowns per 15 minutes. She isn’t the greatest pure wrestler and she needs to muscle down a lot of opponents, but she’s willing and capable compared to the divisional standards. On top, Chiasson is pretty aggressive with ground-and-pound, and she has some back taking ability as well with a brown belt in BJJ.
I don’t love Chiasson as she’s fairly one-dimensional. When she gets stuck at range, she doesn’t separate from her opponents despite her length advantages, and she can also be taken down and held down at times. However when she’s facing a weaker control fighter, Chiasson has potential to dominate and earn finishes.
Ketlen Vieira is a Judo and BJJ black belt herself, and has shown pretty decent wrestling metrics. She lands 1.39 takedowns per 15 minutes and defends at 88 percent. She’s coming off a loss to Kayla Harison where she did give up three takedowns and some dominant positions, but still fared better than most expected and survived to the final bell.
Vieira is a solid striker but her metrics are quite poor. Specifically, she’s getting outlanded 4.4 to 5.1 per minute at distance. More shockingly, she’s failed to land more significant strikes than her opponents in each of her last 10 fights.
This matchup is difficult because although I like the process of Chiasson more, I don’t think she can easily take Vieira down. If she can, she’ll win. If she can’t, it’s quite possible she just loses.
I think Vieira is the better offensive wrestler of the two and probably has the better defensive wrestling. Even fighters like Kianzad, Reneau and Lansberg have gotten Chiasson down. Vieira probably can take her down too and even if Chiasson clinches, Vieira should be comfortable there with her Judo background. Again, I’m not sure Vieira just dominates with wrestling though.
At distance, I do favor Vieira but she doesn’t throw enough strikes and she never outlands her opponents, so it’s really difficult to favor her heavily. If Chiasson can force clinch exchanges, she’ll still have the opportunity to be more active with strikes, and maybe she can land 1-2 takedowns which will seal rounds.
Whoever gets takedowns should win here as both can give up bottom position. I lean slightly toward Vieira who I think is better defensively, but it’s impossible to project this fight as anything but competitive based on that dynamic.
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On DraftKings, despite leaning toward Vieira outright, I think Chiasson will profile as the better fantasy target.
She’s simply shown a much higher ceiling than Vieira and you don’t have to look further than her recent box scores, as Chiasson has put up 101, 111 and 106 in her last three wins, and we’ve been on her in some of those at a low public ownership. It’s worth noting though, that two of those big wins came inside the distance, which I think is much less likely here.
Chiasson is only +450 to win ITD in a fight that’s -300 to go the distance, so we ultimately have to project a decision if she wins at all. Plus, I don’t think Chiasson is likely to land 3+ takedowns here given Vieira’s historically solid defense.
It just makes me nervous to really get excited about Chiasson, despite her recent optimal performances. There’s a really good chance her wrestling gets neutralized, which means she’ll need tons of clinch strikes to get there.
I would consider Chiasson to have a decent floor in a win though, so at 8k, as a slight favorite, maybe she’s still viable. She probably will land 1-2 takedowns in a win, which would come with control. And she’s got a solid striking ceiling based on those non-sig. strikes in the clinch. She’s only failed to score 100 points one time in eight UFC victories, which is an indication of her style being one that’s valuable for fantasy.
I can’t say I love her at 8k and the fact that she could be popular with the betting line moving in her direction really scares me. I also don’t think it’s fair to recommend fading her outright as a victory for her could still easily come with grappling and eclipse 10x. I probably won’t take a major stand one way or the other as I’d rather not let Chiasson make or break my night.
Vieira at 8.2k concerns me much more because she has not shown a strong historic ceiling.
In eight UFC wins, Vieira has never reached 90 points, and she’s been very consistent in reaching the low or mid 80s. She also won’t project well here for finishing equity, and she’s only +415 to win ITD, which is a concern.
I think Vieira has a similarly decent floor as Chiasson, in the sense that it probably will come with some grappling and top control, but she doesn’t land as many strikes as Chiasson and I don’t think she’s likely to reach 3+ takedowns either.
I still do think Vieira could win, grapple a bit and score 86 points, but I’m much less sure that she’s capable of reaching 95+ and contending for the optimal. I also expect her to be lower owned of the two with odds trending against her, potentially by a significant margin, and she likely will fall into the contrarian category this week.
As a contrarian option, I don’t completely hate Vieira on a short slate with few obvious finishing targets. There are ways where she fits based on price.
But I’d really only consider her for unique purposes and I do question her ability to reach a real ceiling. I likely won’t end up high on Vieira this week.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Vieira by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Zachary Reese vs. Dusko Todorovic
Fight Odds: Reese -228, Todorovic +191
Odds to Finish: -600
DraftKings Salaries: Reese 9.2k, Todorovic 7k
Weight Class: 185
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Zachary Reese is a Contender Series alum from the 2023 season who’s original “hype” has cooled off a little bit over his four promotional fights – he’s 2-2 in the UFC and 8-2 as a pro. Dusko Todorovic’s a fellow Contender Series alum but from back in 2019 where he’s been a hot and cold fighter throughout his run, and has had struggles with knee injuries – he’s 3-4 in the UFC and 12-5 as a pro.
The striking component:
Reese is a longer guy at the weight class standing 6’4” with a 77” reach and will fight out of both stances.
He comes from a muay thai background and despite being Texas native, he’s done his last couple camps at Bangtao in Thailand. He’s a difficult guy to analyze though considering he hadn’t been out of the 1st round prior to his fight with Medina and still, we only have roughly 30 minutes of footage on him.
In the bit we have, he does appear to have some process to his game, as he’ll throw some longer-range kicks, step in knees, body kicks and mix hooks up in the pocket. It goes without saying that he’s proven dangerous with five of his eight pro wins coming via strikes.
We just don’t have much of him in extended exchanges as he’s often hurting guys right in his initial flurries and entries.
But I thought he looked composed against Medina when he couldn’t get him out of there, despite hurting him multiple times – he outlanded Medina at distance 57 to 30 – it does need to be noted that Medina is one of the worst guys the UFC has signed in recent years and is a terrible fighter so it’s also not something I take much away from.
Defensively is where I still have some hesitations though as his frame gives him elements of tall man’s defense where he’s dropping his hands or trying to lean out of opponent attacks.
In his defense, he’s taken some clean shots from Aronov, Brundage and Medina. But his tendencies will probably get him clipped standing at the UFC level eventually.
Overall, Reese is a diverse, dangerous striker but it’s hard to make any other definitive claims on his stand up outside of that until we see him in more extended exchanges and against a more meaningful level of competition.
Dusko plays a mid-range pressure boxing game where he’ll primarily excel when he can stay on opponents and keep his volume up.
He lands 4.9 SLpM at 53% — good numbers albeit over a smaller sample – but I do feel they are representative to some regard from his regional tape as well.
In that, he’s finished the overwhelming majority of his fights via KO/TKO but I wouldn’t say he’s a “pure power” guy – it’s more so the accuracy/timing that’s coming on his shots that were putting guys out regionally. He did piece Wright up in the 2nd and hurt him badly – but everyone largely does that Wright and Dusko still doesn’t have an official UFC knockdown.
Defensively is where my main issues come with Dusko.
He’s a guy that will fight with his hands down, and largely rely on his footwork and head movement to try to keep him safe.
Over the near entirety of his career, it had held up, however when he got to the UFC level, that hasn’t been the case. He really struggled with straight power shots of Soriano and couldn’t evade getting hurt multiple times and eventually finished.
Against Rodrigues, despite keeping a higher work rate, he just couldn’t track down Rodrigues where he swung and missed a lot – getting effectively outstruck and nearly 2x’d on strikes over the course of 15 minutes. Against Chidi, he just got blasted with a massive elbow off a clinch break.
More recently, he blew his knee out early against Duncan and then just got creamed in his comeback fight against Abdul-Malik who put it on him, putting him away in the first round.
Overall, it doesn’t appear that Dusko is going to “alter” his defensive strategy, and will still rely on that hands down, movement-based style which is going to continue to give me pause with him going forward. But given the right style matchups, I do think Dusko can still have success in the UFC.
How it plays out: Off the top, Reese will realize a size advantage of 3” in both height and reach. Both aren’t exactly proven distance commodities in more extended exchanges as primary early finishers throughout their careers. Reese does profile as a tricky striking matchup for Dusko in one respect as a longer, more dangerous early finisher. It’s Dusko’s historic defense that gives me larger concerns with him in this matchup outside of his general durability – his chin may be gone at this point. At the same time, I think it’s also important to contextualize the guys that have put Dusko away are legit, coupled with that we still don’t really know how durable Reese is standing in extended exchanges and Dusko is dangerous as well. I would still ultimately give more upside to Reese.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Despite being a base striker, Reese also reps a BJJ purple belt.
He’s mixed TDs into some of his earlier fights where his opponents didn’t put up any real resistance to where he was able to score positional TKOs. But we’ve also seen him get taken down in a handful of fights with caught kicks as well.
His guard appears to be okay as I’ve seen him turn over on a power guillotine and lock up a quicker armbar on the Contender Series – all three of his amateur wins came via submission as well but two of which were from the guard.
But Brundage got him down without much issue in his debut where he threatened an armlock originally and Brundage defended. Then he had a viable attempt at a triangle but held onto it and got slam KO’d.
He went 5/9 on TDs against Medina, racking up six minutes of control – he also reversed Medina with a guillotine in the lone time he was grounded.
Most recently, he was taken down early by Bekoev and positionally TKO’d in the guard shortly after.
Overall, similar to the striking, it’s hard to make any definitive claims with Reese given sample. But 185 isn’t exactly a deep weight class in regards to grappling talent so he’ll probably be able to continue to exploit some lesser opponents there going forward. However, he’s still got guard playing elements to his game where he may get locked down by a more capable top player – him now being finished on the ground twice is concerning as well.
Dusko isn’t anything special as a wrestler but he mixed it in against Gavasoli (regionally) and Townsend in his debut finishing him via ground and pound.
Against Pitolo, he got stuck in a guillotine which found him in top position after being able to defend – he finished shortly after with ground and pound. He had some grinding success on Chidi early but struggled to really flatten him at the same time.
When he’s been taken down, he’s shown an effective butterfly guard to sweep and work back to the feet. He showed solid getups specifically against Rodrigues, only getting controlled for less tha 1:30 on three TDs – impressive given Rodrigues more extensive grappling background.
However, he lost the 1st round via wrestling to Wright where Wright went 3/3 and controlled him for nearly the entire round – pretty embarrassing to be honest considering Wright doesn’t conventionally outwrestle anyone really. He was also able to finish Wright off via GNP but after Wright got hurt and pretty much just fell over from exhaustion.
Most recently, he was positionally TKO’d on the floor by Abdul-Malik after eating damage on the feet and fishing for legs.
Overall, he’s not a great offensive wrestler but strong from position, has a BJJ black belt, good GNP but I now have some concerns with his defensive wrestling.
How it plays out: The Jordan Wright fight is rather bearish overall for Dusko but despite him not being a great wrestler, I’m not necessarily sure you need to be to take Reese down. As noted within the UFC, Dusko’s best work has actually come from top positions by hook or by crook and Reese has been finished on the ground in both his pro losses. Dusko’s a black belt as well who’s never been submitted in his pro career either, so I’d like to think that Dusko would be fine in terms of defending guard based attacks from Reese. Barring Dusko getting clocked standing, I would give him more ground equity here, especially with a proper gameplan. That said, he’s still only stuffing TDs at 45% himself so Reese taking him down is on the table – I don’t think that’ll be Reese’s gameplan here though.
Weird fight but a logical booking between two wishy washy commodities. Dusko’s always been a tricky fighter to gauge because all of his losses are pretty respectable on paper but he also hasn’t beaten anyone of real merit outside of Michel Perreira back regionally, which is probably more of an anomaly at this point. Conversely, Reese is still VERY green as a fighter with only 30 minutes of pro cage time to his name and hasn’t proven much so assessing his ceiling is also difficult. In theory, both guys have “kryptoniteish” elements to each other. I really don’t trust Dusko’s chin or defense at this point where Reese is pretty live to score a traditional early finish. But I also think if Dusko comes with a wrestling heavy gameplan and stays responsible in the guard of Reese, he’s live for some top time or a ground based finish. I still side more with Reese to score an early knockout because Dusko might be cooked at this point but it’s not a super confident opinion.
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Brett’s Notes: It’s tough for me to picture both fighters staying conscious for long, which should at least make for some fun action while it lasts.
Reese is 8-2 professionally and has only seen a 2nd round once. The majority of his wins are super quick knockouts, which is something that always concerns me for a fighter entering the UFC. Even worse, we’ve now seen Reese get brutally knocked out in both of his UFC losses, including a slam KO to Cody Brundage and a GnP destruction to Azamat Bekoev.
With that said, I don’t think Reese is a purely boom or bust fighter. I suspected his style would translate to multiple rounds and we did see him go three rounds against Medina, though Medina is one of the worst fighters to be signed to the UFC in recent years.
I do like parts of Reese’s game. He’s pretty long for the division and very aggressive. His kicking game is one of his most dangerous weapons. He was slamming kicks into the body of Medina for three rounds and it’s fair to say that many fighters on the roster would not have been able to take the damage that Medina took.
Similarly, his grappling looks fine at times. He’s stronger than he looks based on his skinny frame, and I’ve seen him fair well in the clinch game. I’ve seen him use some Judo trips and some takedowns, and his submission grappling seems fine. He landed five takedowns against Medina, and is a BJJ purple belt.
One issue is that he’s very willing to play guard, which has been one factor in him getting KOd both times. He’s also been taken down by four of his last five opponents which is another bad sign.
I think we need a much bigger sample on Reese to make any decisive claims, but for now, he seems like he will continue to have early success, and he may be the type to get hurt and finished in losses.
Todorovic is now 3-5 in the UFC with three wins by knockout, and four losses by knockout, though one was due to a knee injury.
Todorovic is a tall and lengthy fighter for the middleweight division but he doesn’t use it super well, and instead has had the bulk of his success in the clinch. He’s also a quality submission grappler but doesn’t really have the wrestling to back it up.
My primary issue with him historically is that he’s defensively flawed and leaves his chin in the air with tall man’s defense. It’s been a major reason why I’ve been betting against him dating back to his fight with Puna Soriano where he was knocked down multiple times and KOd in round one.
His durability has actually held up more than you’d think, considering his record. But he’s not very difficult to hurt, and holds a 46 percent striking defense which is very poor.
His losses have actually come against a really strong breed of competition – Abdul-Malik, Duncan, Njokuani, Rodrigues and Soriano, but his wins have come against a really low level of competition – Wright, Pitolo and Townsend.
There’s simply no way to trust Todorovic at this stage of his career. But he’s not incapable. He can fight aggressively and throw lots of strikes in the clinch. He is dangerous, and can threaten on the mat at times.
He just is not very defensively sound or very processed, he gets taken down easily, and it’s likely going to lead to more wins and losses by knockout.
This is a weird matchup because you can argue Todorovic may actually have better durability than Reese. In that sense, this fight feels completely up for grabs and I definitely think someone is likely to get hurt.
I do have to favor Reese though, who I think is a more dangerous distance striker and generally more powerful as well. An early knockout for Reese seems pretty likely, and even over the distance, Reese can probably have success with his kicking game, landing damage, and wrestling.
At the same time, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Todorovic hurt Reese, and with Reese’s willingness to play from his back, Todorovic has some control/ground upside as well.
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On DraftKings, this is among my favorite matchups on the slate as I think it’s pretty likely someone gets hurt early.
Reese is priced up to 9.2k but with the departure of Elliott at 9.5k, Reese may become one of the most popular fighters in this top range alongside Blanchfield.
He’ll carry a strong ITD line at -200, in a fight that’s -600 to end inside the distance, and ultimately it makes sense to get exposure to Reese based on his finishing equity. Historically, nearly all of Reese’s success has come in round one as well, so it simply would not be a surprise to see him charge at Todorovic and score another early finish.
Blanchfield will of course be a primary target in this range but outside of her, Reese is probably my favorite pay-up target at the moment, purely due to that early ITD equity. I do expect him to be popular though based on his finishing metrics and I’m not sure I’ll be taking a real stand against the field.
The downside of course is that in an extended fight, Reese is much less likely to pay off. He scored 106 in his decision win, but that did come with five takedowns. I would consider him to have a solid floor in this kind of matchup too, with wrestling equity, but if I knew the fight was going to extend, I’d probably aim to play more mid-range builds.
Though there are boom/bust elements to Reese which will keep me from locking him in completely, his path to an early KO seems extremely realistic and he’ll project as one of the best tournament options on the slate because of it.
Todorovic at 7k feels like a pretty solid underdog target, and a leverage target as well.
I don’t mind some of the other cheap fighters this week, and I don’t have any particular confidence in Todorovic, nor do I think the field will be high on him either. He doesn’t need to be a priority target in general.
But Todorovic fights at a pretty high pace and has KO upside. He’s +290 to win ITD which is pretty strong for the price tag, and we’ve seen Reese put brutally unconscious twice already. Yes, in weird situations, but that’s almost more predictive to me because his brain is shutting off.
I do like Todorovic for upside and I like him for leverage against Reese. With Reese having only been past the first round once, I just don’t think he should be viewed as some lock and I’m skeptical the betting line should be this wide.
I won’t outright prioritize Todorovic, but he feels like a pretty strong tournament dog given the finishing metrics and dynamic of this matchup.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Reese by TKO, RD 1 (Confidence=Medium)
UNDERCARD
Jafel Filho vs. Allan Nascimento
Fight Odds: Nascimento -149, Filho +129
Odds to Finish: +105
DraftKings Salaries: Nascimento 8.6k, Filho 7.6k
Weight Class: 125
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a fun fight here in the flyweight division between Allan Nascimento and Jafel Filho.
After dropping his UFC debut in a close split decision loss to Tagir Ulanbekov, I was actually impressed by Nascimento in his last two fights where he won a clean decision against Jake Hadley and then submitted Carlos Hernandez. He was able to land takedowns or reverse position and win the Hadley fight by getting a lot of top position. He then showed a good body triangling game against Hernandez.
I mostly consider Nascimento a grappler. He is a skilled submission grappler, and he showed that in his fights against Ulanbekov and Hadley that he is skilled with his sweeps from bottom position. He is constantly attacking off his back to reverse position.
Nascimento also has a decent takedown and top position game. He can go to a decent double leg and land takedowns and he generally doesn’t deviate from grappling. He shot at the beginning of all three rounds against Hadley which was good to see and also attempted 10 takedowns against Raulian Paiva. He is also physical and used that physicality and control to consolidate top time against Hadley.
As a striker, Nascimento doesn’t look great but he is busy and spams kicks. Most of his fights end up on the mat so it is hard to evaluate his striking game all that much. He at least outlanded Raulian Paiva 105-81 in significant strikes which is decent. He also at least stayed out of danger on the feet against Hadley which was good.
Nascimento will be taking on Jafel Filho who is coming off back-to-back wins against Ode Osbourne and Daniel Barez. He lost his UFC debut getting submitted by Muhammad Mokaev.
Filho is 16-3 professionally. I would consider him best as a submission grappler. 10 of his wins have come by submission. He has some decent takedowns and back taking ability. He has a lot of wins by RNC, and I consider it his best submission. I do think he can outgrapple weak grapplers in the UFC.
Filho isn’t great defensively as a wrestler though. Mokaev took him down four times which isn’t embarrassing or anything because Mokaev is a solid wrestler. However, I have seen Filho play guard on his back before and get taken down and controlled in general. I do think he worked up more urgently against Mokaev than against previous opponents, but the possibility of him losing minutes off his back is clearly there.
On the feet, Filho is okay and he has some decent power and knocked out his Contender Series opponent. However, he doesn’t have a ton of volume and I am not quite sold on him as a round winning striker on the feet.
As far as this matchup goes, I think the striking is a bit of a mess. I sort of trust Nascimento’s output and urgency more but Filho may have a little more power.
These guys are grapplers by nature though, and I expect this to go to the mat. I think both guys can land takedowns. However, I think Nascimento is a little bit better overall. I consider Nascimento a better wrestler. I also think he has better get-ups and is more likely to be the top man in this matchup. So I tend to like Nascimento’s round winning upside a little more because he seems to be more likely to control Filho than vice versa.
I also think Nascimento is going to just be very hard to submit. He has won by submission 15 times and has never been submitted in his career. Filho has been submitted twice, and I just think Nascimento is a little more likely to win by submission.
This should be fun and I do think both guys will grapple competitively in spots. However, I think Nascimento is just a little more skillful and I am going to go with him for that reason.
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Brett’s Notes: This feels like a true mirror match in a lot of ways as Jafel Filho and Allan Nascimento are primary submission grapplers who both want to entangle with their opponents.
Both have limited striking samples and aren’t particularly trustworthy in distance exchanges. Both are competent offensive wrestlers for base BJJ players. Both are skillful submission grapplers who are willing to play on the bottom, chase leg locks, and scramble into dominant positions.
Of the two, I feel obligated to trust Nascimento more on the feet. He had a fun brawl with Raulian Paiva in 2018 on DWCS, which he lost, but he still outlanded Paiva 105 to 81 in sig. strikes and 84 to 70 at distance. His kicking is respectable and it’s a better effort than I’ve ever seen from Filho.
With that said, Nascimento has gone the distance twice in the UFC and landed 25 and 19 sig. strikes, so I don’t think it’s fair to just assume he’s going to brawl. Filho landed 29 sig. strikes in a 3rd round win on DWCS and 9 sig. strikes in a 3rd round loss in his UFC debut. He actually knocked out his DWCS opponent impressively, and I don’t mind his single strikes. However, he just hasn’t shown any volume upside whatsoever and he was also dropped multiple times by Barez in the UFC before coming back to lock up a submission.
I do think these two will grapple, which is the problem. Whoever is losing on the feet is not just going to accept it. From a predictive standpoint, I’m worried that both can take the other down, and I’m not totally sure who will come out ahead.
I kind of think Filho is a better pure wrestler, and Nascimento is defending takedowns at 16 percent. We have to assume Filho can take Nascimento down. Filho is defending takedowns at 55 percent though, and I do think Nascimento can land takedowns as well.
Whoever is on the bottom won’t just accept the position. They’ll lock up the guard, attack for subs, and attack for leg locks and sweeps. We could see some really fun scrambles. Filho was ultimately subbed late by Mokaev and he was subbed on the regionals once as well, while Nascimento has never lost by sub.
Rounds could just get weird if one guy lands a takedown and the other is chasing leg locks. Judges will have zero idea what they are watching. However, ultimately, I lean toward Nascimento as I think he’s more likely to strike with consistency, and that could give him the edge in rounds alongside a very quality grappling game.
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On DraftKings, the worry is that these two completely neutralize each other on the mat, and don’t land many significant strikes.
Both fighters are strong individual targets in general because they will have some early grappling domination upside, and can win inside the distance. This particular matchup is -165 to go Over 2.5 rounds though, which validates my concern.
I still do think the winner can exceed value. It should still come with takedowns, and control. I wouldn’t be shocked if multiple reversals were in play.
I lean toward Nascimento overall though I’m not excited to play him at 8.6k. I just think he has more striking volume upside to go along with his grappling, and I think he has more knockdown potential. I wouldn’t bet on a KD but Filho didn’t look great eating body shots from Barez and at least Nascimento throws body kicks. He’s only +275 to win ITD though.
It’s just a bit difficult to quantify what the floor/ceiling is here. I think there are a wide range of outcomes and I ultimately don’t consider Nascimento a priority. Landing 1-2 takedowns with 5 minutes of control and 25 sig. strikes is very much in play, which could score him 60 points in a win.
But I don’t want to avoid him completely as he’s a strong grappler with a grappling path, and there is some upside within his style. He’ll be a secondary target who I don’t want to take a real stand on either direction.
Filho at 7.6k is viable for similar reasons and sketchy for similar reasons.
I would personally rate his finishing upside as worse than Nascimento’s, but his ITD line is slightly better at +250. I definitely think his striking upside is minimal as well, which really concerns me.
However, he’s now pushing +125 to win with a decent ITD, and he’s only priced at 7.6k. Coming off two 100 point wins in a row, I actually think Filho could be quite chalky and potentially the most popular underdog on the slate. Ownership will be spread out and there will be lots of “popular” targets, but Filho seems to be gaining steam and his box scores will draw attention.
I do think takedowns are in play for Filho, and control could come with it, so it’s not the worst base case scenario for a win. I wouldn’t completely rule out a submission either. His price tag of 7.6k and line value absolutely puts him in play as a secondary option.
My gut would be to shy away from Filho and hope that Nascimento can simply neutralize him enough to mitigate his ceiling, especially if he projects to be popular, but I’d be fine using him as a secondary target for some grappling equity.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Nascimento by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Kurt Holobaugh vs. Jordan Leavitt
Fight Odds: Leavitt -218, Holobaugh +184
Odds to Finish: +120
DraftKings Salaries: Leavitt 8.7k, Holobaugh 7.5k
Weight Class: 155
We’ll get an intriguing clash of styles as brawler Kurt Holobaugh will return to the Octagon to face grappler Jordan Leavitt.
I’m a big fan of Holobaugh and have been a supporter of his for many years. He’s aggressive, can push a pace, and will fight hard for your money.
He is not without flaws though, and among them, his takedown defense has been quite poor in recent years. In his last six UFC bouts, Holobaugh has given up three or more takedowns five times, which is awful, with a combined 19 takedowns yielded in that span.
He’s actually a black belt in jiu-jitsu, so giving up one or two takedowns isn’t the end of the world, but Holobaugh can be stuck on his back for minutes at a time. That was most apparent in one of his recent matchups against Trey Ogden, who took him down three times, and controlled Holobaugh on the mat for more than 11 minutes.
In other recent bouts, Holobaugh gave up three takedowns to Kruschewsky but scrambled free at times and avoided some guillotine chokes. He gave up four takedowns to Alexander Hernandez though and spent the entirety of the third round on his back, which cost him the fight.
If we exclude that questionable aspect of Holobaugh’s game, he’s a dangerous fighter. He lands 4.65 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 4.30 per minute, and he packs some power. He’ll want to get in close and brawl, and that style is going to threaten most opponents which is why they will often revert to taking him down.
Holobaugh also lands 0.66 takedowns per 15 minutes, which isn’t a great rate but he can still land the occasional takedown. Boxing exchanges are where he’ll primarily excel, especially against an opponent who cannot keep up a high work rate. And I expect he’ll continue to have issues against strong offensive wrestlers.
Next he will take on Jordan Leavitt, who is mostly a BJJ specialist, and an opponent who clearly excels on the mat.
Unfortunately for Leavitt, he’s not particularly good at anything else, including striking, offensive or defensive wrestling. He’s also a low-tier athlete and not physical in the slightest.
Leavitt really wants to take you down and submit you, that’s his game. He dives in on single legs and has some capability there, but his lack of physicality means he just will get stuffed more often than not.
He’s actually landing 2.19 takedowns per 15 minutes in eight tracked fights but at a 25 percent accuracy, and he’s defending takedowns at a 30 percent rate. Both of which are bad. Even against weak competition, Claudio Puelles took him down four times. Matt Sayles took him down. Trey Ogden took him down.
Leavitt will look for leg locks and triangles and stuff from his back, and usually does a good job to survive if he does end up on the bottom. But he can definitely get stuck on his back too which is a major concern moving forward, and he seems to get tired as well.
He’s also been submitted in each of his last two losses, which is hard to really hold against him as those losses came to Paddy Pimblett and Chase Hooper. I typically do not want to see my dependent grapplers get subbed in losses though.
Also on the feet, Leavitt still feels like a liability although he’s had very limited exchanges there. He will use range kicks a lot, but they’re not effective at all and aren’t high volume.
He’s actually only had one real striking performance of his eight tracked fights, of which he won a decision against Trey Ogden. Leavitt outlanded Ogden 69 to 41 over three rounds, but looking into the metrics, 52 of those 69 strikes were leg licks. And not hard leg kicks – Leavitt throws a lot of front kicks and touch strikes, and I don’t think he’s particularly damaging.
Most sound strikers should be able to beat Leavitt in pure kickboxing exchanges, and I think eventually if he gets pressured, he seems like the type to just flop to his back if he ever gets in trouble.
This matchup is super weird because I consider Holobaugh leagues ahead of Leavitt on the feet and probably just a better mixed martial artist as well. Holobaugh is a far better boxer than Leavitt, and while Holobaugh is willing to brawl, Leavitt is not. It’s going to lead to an interesting dynamic because in striking exchanges, Leavitt will just want to play a distance game and throw leg kicks, while Holobaugh will want to pressure.
If Holobaugh can ever get Leavitt backed up against the cage, he should crush him. He should either hurt Leavitt or clearly win exchanges. I think eventually, Holobaugh will be able to pressure him and get on the inside of those leg attacks.
What I am having trouble parsing is the grappling exchanges. Because I don’t think Leavitt just takes shots and gives up. I think he will either flop to his back, or counter grapple. And that’s besides the main point of which Leavitt might just come out wrestling from the very first minute.
So ultimately, I still think this fight comes down to the grappling exchanges, which makes it tricky because that’s where Holobaugh is vulnerable.
On one hand, I think I have to project Leavitt for success. If he simply shoots takedowns, I cannot be confident Holobaugh defends them. Leavitt likely gets on top and has some control time, and/or fishes for submissions. I wouldn’t be shocked if he got one.
On the other hand, Leavitt doesn’t really project as the dominant control type. He’s only in control 51 percent of the time in clinch/ground exchanges, which isn’t a big positive. Holobaugh is only in control for 29% of the time though, so he’s far more prone to getting held down.
I think Leavitt’s best performance was probably in his loss to Pimblett, where he actually landed three takedowns in the first round and earned a few minutes of control. Those exchanges lead me to believe his wrestling is OK and that he could definitely get on top of Holobaugh. He still got a bit tired and was subbed early in round two in that fight.
So I’m just wondering if Leavitt is the type who can get 3+ takedowns and earn 12 minutes of control. If he has it in him, then that type of outcome is very viable. I do think Leavitt will have some initial wrestling success.
I’m just very skeptical that he can hold Holobaugh down for that long, in which case Holobaugh will eventually get up and force boxing exchanges, where the minutes and moments should favor him. Maybe Leavitt can skate around and defend for a while there but as the fight progresses, I think Holobaugh may only get more dangerous.
Also, Leavitt defending takedowns at 30 percent just makes me question his game as a whole. I won’t project Holobaugh for a lot of wrestling success but he could definitely take Leavitt down too. Or maybe reverse position on occasion. This isn’t a completely one-sided grappling affair, despite Holobaugh being prone to giving up takedowns.
I honestly think it’s fair to pick either side here. I definitely prefer Holobaugh’s game to Leavitt’s, and I’m pretty hopeful that he doesn’t look like a complete zero while defending takedowns, and he can prove over the duration to be a superior boxer and fighter. At the same time, I’m not convinced Holoabugh will get up if he’s taken down, and Leavitt at least has a path to early wrestling success.
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On DraftKings, I typically like to target Holobaugh fights and this one will be no different.
In some ways, it is a striker vs. grappler matchup and Leavitt as the grappler will definitely have a path to score at 8.7k.
My issue with Leavitt again is that the kind of fight he needs to win here, we have not yet seen from his game. He has two kind of fluke KOs in the UFC including one slam, a 2nd round sub, and a leg kicking based decision.
He will have some submission equity at +240 to win ITD, but I don’t think that’s an extremely likely outcome. It’s still possible. I’d be pissed if he leg kicked Holobaugh to victory and that would be a total bust.
My best guess is that the pressure of Holobaugh will force Leavitt to wrestle, so if he wins, he’ll need 3+ takedowns and 10+ minutes of control time. Holobaugh gave up 115+ DK points to Ogden in a similar type of fight, in part because Ogden had so much top control that he landed a million non-sig. strikes.
I could honestly see Leavitt being popular too as many will see the grappling path for him and he has some big scores on his resume with those fluke wins. Plus, he’s been getting bet up late in the week. Regardless, a win against Holobaugh likely means offensive production and therefore a decent chance to exceed value.
I probably won’t be as high on Leavitt as the field, but I completely acknowledge the dominating control path to victory with some submission upside. He makes sense to include in your portfolio given that path, and I wouldn’t even mind coming in overweight given the grappling/pacing/binary dynamics of the matchup.
Holobaugh at 7.5k is a viable target for his ceiling outcomes.
I am very nervous he won’t reach them though. If he gets taken down early and held down for the whole first round, that’s going to kill off his upside.
But he also has outcomes where he beats the crap out of Leavitt and finishes him somewhat early as well. He’s +325 to win ITD which is OK.
I can understand if you don’t want to be heavy on Holobaugh. He is a risk in some regard in this kind of matchup and there are plenty of other fighters with win equity. I’m just not a huge fan of Leavitt and I consider Holobaugh to be dangerous. I think he can win the fight.
I’m personally willing to include Holobaugh as a secondary target and I may end up a bit overweight to the field on him as well. There is a wider range of outcomes than I would like for Holobaugh though, and I’m prepared to be disappointed.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Holobaugh by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Andreas Gustafsson vs. Trevin Giles
Fight Odds: Gustafsson -168, Giles +144
Odds to Finish: -170
DraftKings Salaries: Gustafsson 8.4k, Giles 7.8k
Weight Class: 170
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have an absolute slop fest of a fight here between UFC newcomer Andreas Gustafsson and UFC veteran Trevin Giles. Giles is taking this on short notice as Gustafsson’s original opponent Jeremiah Wells withdrew due to injury last week.
Gustafsson won by knockout on the Contender Series back in August to book his ticket to the UFC. He is a Swedish fighter and is 11-2 professionally. He comes from a Greco-Roman wrestling background.
This guy is a bit of a spaz. He aggressively clinches up all of his opponents and then just kind of goes from there. He is a big and physical guy. In the clinch he likes to just land inside strikes like punches, elbows, and knees and he just gives his opponents no room to operate. He is capable of hurting opponents on the inside and just likes to make it ugly.
Gustafsson will also go for takedowns in the clinch and he can take down weak grapplers. As with most Greco guys, I don’t think his actual takedowns are good. I don’t think his top control is great either. He is also not a talented submission grappler. I think he can outgrapple weak grapplers but as he gets in the UFC, I think he will struggle more and more to beat guys with offensive wrestling. I have seen him taken down but he does seem to work up somewhat well.
I like the fact that Gustafsson is at least aggressive and will try really hard to clinch and land inside strikes. I think he can get occasional wins in the UFC with that style. I think he is also moderately dangerous.
My issue is that Gustafsson is limited and that style will only go so far. I don’t think he is actually skilled. I really question his defense too, especially at range where his opponents have room to operate. I have seen him teed off on and hurt at range. He has never been finished and seems tough, but I definitely think he will get knocked out at some point at this level.
Gustafsson will be taking on Trevin Giles. Giles has lost five of his last seven, and I have never been too high on him. I will defend him though. His losses have come against great competition in Du Plessis, Michael Morales, Bonfim, Prates, and Malott. I wouldn’t expect him to win any of those fights really. When he has fought more manageable competition, he has generally won.
I still don’t like Giles’ style though. He generally just doesn’t put up enough offense and he gets finished so often. He has lost seven times in the UFC and six of those have come by finish. It is hard to trust him. I don’t think Giles is bad from a skill perspective though. He has some decent boxing blended into his game and he also can wrestle a bit.
Giles lands 3.17 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.39 in return. He defends strikes at 58 percent. He is a moderately skilled boxer and he actually has a nice jab. He has some mild power as well. I don’t think he is bad as a striker, especially from distance. He was outstriking Carlos Prates for a bit so he clearly has some skills.
The issue is Giles just doesn’t have a ton of volume and his durability is sketchy. He can be winning fights and literally lose them at any point by getting hurt. He has generally only been knocked out by good fighters but I still don’t trust his chin man.
Giles can wrestle a bit. He only lands 1.07 takedowns per 15 minutes though. He is capable of getting top position, and riding his opponents out to a degree and landing some ground strikes. His defensive wrestling is decent and he defends takedowns at 72 percent. I have still seen him taken down and look sketchy on the bottom. However, I generally think he is a decent wrestler.
As far as this matchup goes, I am pretty confident Gustafsson will come out aggressively and clinch and then the fight will be on from there. I actually thought Giles did a decent job against Parsons reversing the clinch and disengaging and fighting that type of fight.
I don’t think Gustafsson will easily take Giles down or easily hold him against the cage. However, I do like Gustafsson’s aggression more and I trust his durability more at this point than Giles’ durability. Honestly, this will probably be ugly and back-and-forth until someone gets hurt and my guess is Giles gets hurt first, and I am leaning Gustafsson for that reason. There is a good chance Gustafsson just lands a random inside strike that hurts Giles at some point.
I still just worry about Gustafsson though man. His competition has been bad and I really don’t trust his defense or range striking. Giles may honestly stop the clinch after a few minutes and get some distance striking time where I do think Giles is superior, especially from a technical perspective. I could easily see Giles winning this fight if that happens.
I think either guy can land a takedown here but I don’t think the takedowns will come easily. I don’t think either guy can easily hold the other guy down either. I probably trust Gustafsson’s get up game more. However, I am leaning towards grappling neutralization to occur for the most part.
I just don’t trust Giles though man. He just gets finished so often and I don’t trust him to survive against dangerous fighters in general. I will pick Gustafsson to eventually hurt Giles but this should be a shit show.
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Brett’s Notes: I wouldn’t qualify Andreas Gustafsson as a real prospect – he is already 34 years old which is extremely rare for a fighter to be making their UFC debut.
He also fights with a style that I am not convinced can really work at the highest levels. Gustafsson thrives in the clinch, and he thrives with physicality. From the get-go, Gustafsson is urgent in maintaining that clinch, and I believe he’ll need to win the physicality battle to have success.
Gustafsson doesn’t have a deep striking game. He will throw flurries, which is usually a means of finding his way into the clinch. He’s capable and dangerous in that sense, but purely at distance, he can only really throw single shots and I think he’s likely to get tagged up pretty badly.
Gustafsson will wrestle, but he’s not a standard wrestler and I don’t consider him a particularly good submission grappler. He’s won by submission twice but they were the first two fights of his pro career.
He does have a dangerous top game though. When he earns control, he will throw a ton of ground-and-pound and will damage opponents, and clearly win the optics battle. Against a high-level wrestler or grappler in front of him, I am pretty skeptical that he can earn and maintain ground control with any consistency.
But it’s not an easy task to fight as physically and aggressively in the clinch as Gustafsson does. He’s coming off a brutal TKO win on DWCS where he smashed his opponent in the clinch with knees and elbows. He can absolutely do damage there, and he can tire opponents out with that grinding style.
I simply believe that if he’s not dominating his opponent physically, he’ll lose. He won’t be able to control clinch exchanges. He probably won’t be able to land takedowns or earn ground control. And you don’t want him striking at distance for long periods of time. However, his base level of physicality and athleticism makes his clinch warfare a somewhat fun and interesting tactic in the mid-levels of the division.
I am really hoping he gets by Trevin Giles, who has lost five of his last seven fights and is coming in on somewhat short notice.
Giles isn’t particularly good at anything. He doesn’t fight at a high pace, and his wins are generally competitive fights where he plays the role of neutralizer. He’s only landing 3.17 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 2.39 per minute, and he only lands 1.07 takedowns per 15 minutes while defending at 72 percent.
Giles has only knocked down two of his 14 UFC opponents, and he’s not a strong power threat. He’s not a volume threat, and rarely exceeds 50 significant strikes. He’s not a particularly good grappler, but he can survive on the mat and scramble on occasion, which I think is his primary path here.
I do think Gustafsson is the more physical fighter though, and so I give him a good chance to win the clinch battles where he can land damaging strikes. I also think he can take Giles down, who isn’t urgent enough on his back, and has given up control time and positions to Preston Parsons, and Louis Cosce, among others.
If Giles simply survives, he can squeak out a competitive win. He can hope Gustafsson gets tired with his grinding style. Maybe he can reverse position on the mat. At distance, Giles might be the better boxer.
But Giles just doesn’t produce a whole lot of offense, and he doesn’t really dictate where the fight takes place. So I expect Gustafsson to be in control early and winning the optics battle. I’m not certain he can control Giles for long periods of time on the mat though, and if he cannot, we could find ourselves in weird, competitive fight territory. I’ll ultimately take Gustafsson to land some big shots and hurt Giles, who has been finished in six of his seven UFC losses.
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On DraftKings, I’m probably going to play a bunch of Gustafsson and it could look really smart or really dumb in hindsight.
I’m just nervous that Gustafsson doesn’t profile as the type of fighter who I’d ever be confident in. I know he has flaws. Making his UFC debut against a veteran, there is reason to be cautious.
But man, if he can’t beat Trevin Giles, he does not belong in the UFC. And when he wins, I think takedowns, lots of control, and lots of strikes will come along with it. Potentially finishes as well.
He’s priced at 8.4k here and I think Gustafsson is a very strong tournament target. He’ll rate out pretty well for finishing equity at +100 ITD, which I agree with. That will draw some attention but the name value of fighters like Gamrot and the value of Chiasson will still draw ownership away from him as well. Honestly it seems like people are scared off him at the moment.
Realistically, Gustafsson has boom or bust elements and I’m not exceptionally confident in him. But I do like his combination for finishing equity and grappling equity, and I wouldn’t mind being overweight to the field personally, shooting for pure upside.
Giles at 7.8k doesn’t interest me a whole lot but he’s viable to a degree.
I’m just not a fan of Giles at all, and so for him to win and contend for the optimal lineup, it really has to come as more of a failure from Gustafsson. That’s possible, but I’m still super hesitant to believe Giles is going to produce much offense.
In Giles’ last three decision wins, he’s scored ~73, ~58, and ~51. He’s only +325 to win ITD here which is concerning and he’s simply not much of a finishing threat.
I could maybe see Gustafsson gassing out and getting hurt or something, but Giles just won’t produce a whole lot of offense outside of some collapse. So you can target him as a low-end play if you’d like, at a low public ownership, but he just won’t rate out as a strong fantasy target for me. Possible I get burned by him though if Gustafsson busts.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Gustafsson by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Bolaji Oki vs. Michael Aswell
Fight Odds: Oki -360, Aswell +285
Odds to Finish: Over 2.5 RD -150
DraftKings Salaries: Oki 8.9k, Aswell 6.8k
Weight Class: 155
This is a super late-notice matchup with former Contender Series product Michael Aswell replacing MarQuel Mederos on just a few day’s notice.
Aswell is 10-2 professionally at age 24, and he’s the former Fury FC featherweight champion. He’s earned five wins by knockout and five by decision.
For starters, this is going to be a tough challenge for Aswell stepping up a weight class to lightweight, to take on Bolaji Oki who is a pretty physical force on just a few day’s notice.
I’m also not the biggest fan of Aswell in general. He’s a primary boxer and not a particularly good one. I don’t think he’s very technical and he sort of reminds me of Erin Blanchfield without any wrestling to back it up.
His striking is just not that effective, but what I will give him credit for is pacing. He landed 155 sig. strikes on DWCS which is a ton of volume. He still lost that fight.
Aswell can definitely hurt opponents with attrition, and his cardio seems amazing as he always fights at a hard pace and is very live later in fights. He’s just not the most effective striker and he’s pretty one dimensional with his boxing.
I don’t consider him a great athlete and I don’t think he’s the most defensively sound guy. He’s getting beaten up in some of his losses though surviving and making them fun. He still allowed 102 sig. strikes and three TDs on DWCS.
Aswell is honestly hilarious. Of those 155 sig. strikes, 128 came to the head. He has no interest in kicking and he barely attacks the body. And he STILL lost the fight which tells you how ineffective his strikes are.
Plus, he’s not a good grappler. His first level takedown defense isn’t good and he can get his back taken. I’m not sure what BJJ belt he is but it’s not a great one. He lost a decision to Yadier del Valle who is a good prospect, but del Valle got him down easily and took his back.
I just don’t like Aswell’s game. I think he needs wars to win, or he needs to gas his opponents out. Both of those outcomes are possible but he’s still going to be giving up offense while he’s landing. I don’t think he has elite power or athleticism, and so it’s just not an ideal recipe to win.
But yeah, Aswell’s pacing is good. He can throw a lot of strikes. It will give him some ability to win minutes and to win comebacks, but I expect him to get hit a lot and taken down a lot, and I just think he’s more likely to lose fights than win fights at the UFC level.
Bolaji Oki is coming off a quick guillotine loss to Chris Duncan, and he won a competitive decision over Timmy Cuamba in his UFC debut.
He is a physical and powerful fighter, and I would generally classify him as an aggressive striker, though he’s quite capable of striking on the counter too. He fights well with his lead hand, and is a capable kicker as well as a boxer.
From a macro standpoint though, Oki seems somewhat dependent on damage. He’s not an evasive, high-volume striker and the bulk of his success will come from hurting opponents.
There also aren’t many layers to his game. He’s not a great wrestler and that’s been more of a liability for him defensively than anything else.
I think the real advantages he has over Aswell are physicality and power. Oki will be a couple inches taller with four extra inches of reach, and he’s going to have the bigger frame as well for lightweight.
I think he can land pretty cleanly on Aswell and I also think he can take him down. I am unsure that he can easily knock Aswell out though, or submit him, which brings an extended fight onto the table.
If Aswell can survive, I could see him competing on pacing and edging out a couple of rounds. Maybe Oki gets very tired and hurt or something. But I have a hard time believing Aswell will be winning this fight early as Oki should be able to land the harder shots and Aswell just doesn’t offer much besides arm punches.
Oki’s pacing is slightly concerning to me and I don’t really want to rely on him as a wrestler, so there are ways for this to fall apart. Aswell can only compete in boxing range though where Oki is still more physical and powerful, so I just expect Oki to win the optics/wrestling and hold Aswell off for the win.
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On DraftKings, Oki will now rate out as a value at 8.9k, as the official biggest favorite on the slate at -360, even pushing -400 on some books.
I was a bit surprised to see the betting odds this wide, and I know Gordo was even more surprised. I do understand Oki being heavily favored based on the short notice, up a weight class dynamic though.
ITD odds aren’t out yet but the fight is still -150 to go Over 2.5 rounds, so I am not expecting Oki to carry a phenomenal ITD mark. He will still carry power and some damage upside based on the physicality gap, as well as some wrestling equity.
I think he needs a finish to pay off the price though, and I still don’t see him carrying the same kind of ceiling as a Blanchfield priced above him. But you can argue he has similar upside as Reese/Jacoby, though his chances of winning ITD may be worse or comparable.
The simple fact that Oki is now -360 instead of -170 definitely makes him a more valuable commodity though, and I can understand using him as a secondary target. I do prefer the path to a ceiling from fighters priced above him, but they may be significantly more popular.
It seems reasonable to mix Oki in as a secondary target for fight pacing and line value, assuming he isn’t chalky, though I still think he’s a boom/bust type in a matchup that isn’t extremely likely to end ITD.
Aswell is priced down to 6.8k, and although he’s viable, I am not the biggest fan.
I would probably rather take chances on the Todorovic/Brahimaj types for ceiling, and Barber is there with main event floor equity. I kind of think Aswell falls into a similar tier as Ardelan, given that he could win a decision and throw some volume.
He won’t carry a strong ITD line though and I see no real wrestling equity. I really like his pacing but this isn’t an ideal matchup for him to reach a volume ceiling. Even with 100 sig. strikes, that’s still only 70 DK points.
I would not be shocked to see Aswell win a couple of close rounds by being more active, but I’m less inclined to play him as a big dog. I know Gordo is a bit more excited than I.
He’s not a bad play on a slate like this and with a really weak ML, I am not expecting Aswell to gain much public ownership. He’s fine for the uniqueness factor. I don’t think he’s a particularly strong target and I’d lump him into the low-end sprinkle tier this week.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Oki by Decision (Confidence=Medium)
Rayanne dos Santos vs. Alice Ardelean
Fight Odds: Dos Santos -258, Ardelean +214
Odds to Finish: +285
DraftKings Salaries: Dos Santos 9.3k, Ardelean 6.9k
Weight Class: 115
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have an extremely low level fight here in the curtain jerker between Rayanne dos Santos and Alice Ardelean. These girls are both 0-2 in the UFC and this is probably a loser leaves town match.
Dos Santos is a Brazilian fighter who is 14-8 professionally. She is 29 years old. She lost both of her UFC fights by split decision against Puja Tomar and Talita Alencar. I did think she should have gotten the nod against Alencar upon rewatch though. She also lost on the Contender Series to Denise Gomes.
Dos Santos also fought in Invicta where she was the atomweight champion. I do think that is an issue for her. She is pretty small and isn’t a natural strawweight.
Dos Santos comes from a BJJ background and is a BJJ black belt. She has eight wins by submission, and I do think she is a decent submission grappler. When she is in top position, she can flow on top and go position to position and threaten girls on the mat. She also has strong TDD and Alencar was having fits taking her down. She is defending takedowns at 88 percent.
The issue is dos Santos doesn’t wrestle urgently. She will gladly only attempt 2-3 takedowns and if she fails, she will just strike. Her actual takedowns aren’t strong either, and I don’t like her physicality. In her three UFC affiliated fights, she has only landed one takedown, and is landing takedowns at a 12 percent rate. So I really do question her ability to consistently get girls to the mat at this level.
On the feet, dos Santos is okay. She can land some decent leg kicks and does have some fluent hands at times. She isn’t great either though. She lands 4.36 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 5.20 in return. She was outlanded by Puja Tomar in her most recent fight 95-84 in significant strikes. So I can’t be too confident in her. I think she is competent standing but again she isn’t good either, and had a competitive striking round in round three with Talita Alencar which is awful.
Dos Santos is just whatever to me. She has some BJJ in her game but skeptical wrestling. On the feet, she is okay but not good. That’s about it.
Dos Santos will be taking on Alice Ardelean. Ardelean is a Romanian fighter who fights out of England. She is 33 years old with a pro record of 9-7.
Ardelean fought Shauna Bannon in her UFC debut and lost a decision. She basically got a takedown in round one and fought off an arm bar and triangle attempt for a couple of minutes. In round two, she struck competitively and got a takedown and it was a very low level round. She got outstruck clearly in round three.
Ardelean then fought Melissa Martinez and lost a decision in a really weird fight that played out exclusively standing. In rounds one and two, Ardelean was the aggressor and outlanded Martinez 27-18 and 45-29 in significant strikes. I honestly thought Ardelean won both of those rounds. She was -300 on the live line too so the oddsmakers thought so too. Somehow every judge gave Martinez both rounds which was surprising.
In round three, Martinez landed a flush liver kick that crumbled Ardelean to the canvas. The referee mistakenly ruled it a low blow but realized it was actually a clean strike upon seeing the replay. So they restarted the fight and it went to the cards. It clearly should have been a TKO win for Martinez. It was weird though because again I thought Ardelean won rounds one and two. So theoretically Ardelean had a real case at a 29-28 decision. However, all of the judges gave Martinez every round which was just odd. I didn’t have a problem with it though because in reality Martinez was robbed of a TKO win so justice was served in a way.
Anyway, Ardelean isn’t good. She is kind of just a tough, enthusiastic girl who likes to come forward and strike and will mix in an occasional takedown.
On the feet, I don’t think she is completely awful. She will at least come forward and try hard and put together some flurries of punches. She also seems somewhat tough. The issue is she is not actually skillful and she isn’t athletically gifted or fast. She just isn’t talented. She did land 92 significant strikes against Martinez though so at least she has shown a little volume. She doesn’t have much power, speed or flash though.
Ardelean can land takedowns here and there. However, I don’t think she is actually a good grappler. Her takedowns aren’t great and I don’t consider her great on top either. She is apparently a BJJ blue belt. I actually haven’t seen her grapple defensively often. I have heard she can get stuck on her back and I believe it as she just isn’t a good fighter.
As far as this matchup goes, this is a sloppy one. On the feet, I actually think this is competitive. I think dos Santos is probably more skillful. However, Ardelean may be a little more willing to throw. Ardelean also is a little bigger than dos Santos who is a natural atomweight. If this plays out for 15 minutes on the feet, I expect competitive rounds. I would probably pick dos Santos to win a tight striking fight and I do think she has a little more damage capabilities. However, this should be close.
Dos Santos is certainly the stronger grappler on paper given her BJJ black belt. So that could come into play here and it honestly justifies dos Santos being the pick to win.
However, dos Santos doesn’t chase takedowns often and I am not really confident she can easily land takedowns either. I do think the fact that dos Santos has the potential to win a clear round if the fight ends up on the mat makes her the rightful favorite. However, I am just concerned because I project these girls to strike for significant
stretches of this fight which could just turn this into an ugly split decision.
I will pick Dos Santos because she has more paths to victory. However, this has the ingredients of a fight that could play out competitively on the feet.
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Brett’s Notes: This is a super low-level matchup between two fighters who are 0-5 in their last five appearances in the UFC/DWCS.
On the feet, this fight profiles as a competitive one, and it’s very likely to go the distance. Ardelean isn’t super technical, and her pacing is pretty inconsistent. I think she’s had trouble cutting off the cage, especially against Martinez who was more evasive on the outside. She also struggled with the kicks of Bannon.
With that said, she still did land 92 sig. strikes in her last matchup, and she’ll probably project for 70-80 against dos Santos which is enough to stay competitive in rounds. It’s hard to value her striking as effective and her likely best case scenario is a competitive decision, but that’s also probably the most likely outcome, win or lose.
The problem with dos Santos is that she’s a BJJ black belt with the grappling upside on paper, but she’s not an effective wrestler. A lot of her wins are super quick armbars against weak competition. She’s now wrestling with a 12% accuracy over three tracked fights and landing less than 0.5 takedowns per 15 minutes.
In theory, dos Santos has an advantage here on top, where Ardelean has shown to be weak in the past and is also only a BJJ blue belt. It’s difficult to project dos Santos for many takedowns though, but in theory there’s some upside.
On the feet, dos Santos has a little bit of pop and throws technically fine, but she’s obviously not separating from opponents. She’s lost back-to-back split decisions against pretty weak competition, especially when you consider Alencar barely had any control time against her (less than three minutes).
So while I’m open to dos Santos beating Ardelean standing, it’s impossible to project her to separate and from a striking total, she’ll project very similarly to Ardelean.
Overall, this has the makings of a mid-paced, low-level, very competitive striking affair that goes the distance, and in that sense dos Santos is surely being overvalued. But I’m open to the idea that mixing in an occasional takedown could lead to bigger moments, and I suppose dos Santos being more well-rounded is enough to favor her outright.
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On DraftKings, dos Santos is hilariously priced at 9.3k which could make her one of the lowest owned fighters on the slate.
Yeah, she’s a big favorite, but she’s not a good fighter and she’s only scored 35 and 28 fantasy points in her two losses, meaning if she’d gotten her hand raised, they would have been 65 and 58 point scores.
It’s going to push so much ownership onto Reese and onto Blanchfield, and maybe now Oki, and I’d expect those first two to be ultra chalky while dos Santos will be contrarian.
Dos Santos won’t even rate out well with a +325 ITD line in a fight that’s -375 to go the distance. It’s hard to project her for much wrestling equity.
She’s really only in consideration as a contrarian target who may be able to dominate on the mat. I use the term “may” very loosely because she’s shown no ability to do that thus far that may only look like one takedown and an armbar anyways. I do think there’s some upside in that sense though, and maybe an early sub is in play that could score 100ish.
I think I would just rather play the mid-range personally. I’d rather take chances on KO upside, or the grapplers in the 8k range. Even if dos Santos does score 90-100 she could easily be outscored by Blanchfield and/or Reese if they win.
Yes, there is some merit to targeting dos Santos as a contrarian pay-up, but she’s not a particularly strong target in general and I can’t recommend you chase her with much enthusiasm.
Ardelan at 6.9k could be the better play. She’s the best floor play of the bottom group outside Barber, and there’s a pretty realistic chance she scores 30+ in a loss.
Is that great? No. If every other dog in this range loses, maybe there’s some hope for Ardelan to be optimal.
I also think an ugly 60-70 point decision win is in play, which again is not great, but for 6.9k I’m open to it with low-end shares. With the addition of Aswell, she’s probably even less of a priority, though I suppose Ardelean has more win equity on paper of those two.
Ardelan won’t have any real wrestling equity and she won’t project well in general with an +900 ITD line. You don’t have to play her at all. A competitive, low scoring decision is certainly within the range of outcomes though so if that interests you at a cheap price, Ardelan can be viewed as a semi-viable punt target.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Dos Santos by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Billy Ray Goff vs. Seokhyeon Ko
Fight Odds: Goff -149, Ko +129
Odds to Finish:
DraftKings Salaries:
Weight Class: 170
This could be an absolute firefight as fast-paced brawler Billy Ray Goff will step back into the Octagon against newcomer Seokyheon Ko.
Goff is a workman type, like Billy Quarantillo, who is known for taking some damage and then breaking guys. We’ve already seen that type of outcome from him on the Contender Series, where Goff was dropped with a head kick in like the first 30 seconds, but he immediately fought back and won by TKO in the first round himself.
Then in his UFC debut, Goff was a dog to Japanese prospect Yusaku Kinoshita, and Goff poured on the pace, dropping Kinoshita with a body shot in the first round while landing 40 sig. strikes in less than four minutes.
Most recently, Goff had a pretty fun war against Trey Waters, and although he lost a decision, he still outlanded Waters 116 to 96 and had plenty of positive moments throughout the fight
Goff is now 9-3 professionally with seven wins by knockout, and he’s fought decent competition on the regional scene as well. He went a hard three rounds with Sean Lally in a high paced matchup, and I generally have a lot of confidence in his gas tank.
He also fought Justin Sumter on the regionals, who had his back early and had him in a dangerous spot. But Goff came back to beat Sumter up and TKO him in the second round.
I just really like Goff because he’s going to fight for your money. He loves to trade in the pocket and can throw a ton of volume, and that style can break a lot of opponents.
He can also wrestle, and his offensive grappling is alright. He’s not a guy who projects to dominate good grapplers, which is an issue for his ceiling, but he also may dominate weak grapplers.
The other downside is just that he’s probably open defensively as well because he fights too aggressively, and that could lead to him getting hurt, taken down, or just losing fights against technical opponents. Waters was bigger than him and was pumping out the jab which landed a lot.
Ultimately, Goff’s pace is the best thing about his game, and he should continue to be in a lot of fun fights because of it.
Seokhyeon Ko will be making his debut with an 11-2 record, including six wins by knockout and five more by decision. He earned his contract on the Contender Series last September with a solid performance over three rounds. He’s 31 years old.
Ko is nicknamed “The Korean Tyson” and his boxing is arguably the best part of his game.
He fights out of the southpaw stance and likes to bounce around on his feet, and throw hard 1-2s. He is a very solid athlete and has pretty big power in his left hand specifically.
Ko can also throw damaging leg kicks, although that’s not always a major part of his game plan. He only landed three leg strikes on DWCS for example. But he carries power there too and can damage opponents.
Ko can also wrestle a bit but I don’t think he’s an elite grappler. He can shoot some basic doubles or trip opponents, and he can probably beat up lower level grapplers. His top game is decent and he will throw really heavy ground-and-pound. I do like the fact that he mixes in wrestling.
I just don’t think he’s some special wrestler or submission grappler. I’ve rarely seen him defend takedowns but he was taken down once on DWCS and popped back up pretty immediately. I think he’ll be difficult to hold down against average competition.
One potential negative is that Ko has been knocked out in both of his losses, and of the one I could view, he was knocked out cold early in the first round. It gives me a bit of hesitation in this matchup specifically because I view Ko as a fighter who likes to be in control.
He only landed 54 sig. strikes in three rounds on DWCS and I don’t view him as a major volume specialist. He’s not low volume, but he’s not the type to excel in brawls either, although his power can bail him out.
Ko will want to control distance, bounce around, land big power shots and avoid getting damaged in return. He’ll want to mix in some top control, and land damage there too.
I actually think Ko is pretty decent and I think he can have success in the UFC. I’m not sure he runs away with striking rounds though, unless he’s landing big damage, and I’m not sure his wrestling will be very impactful at the higher levels.
But he’s got good cardio, good power and good athleticism. He can have success in striking exchanges and if his durability holds up, Ko should win fights.
This matchup is super intriguing because of the pace Goff brings. I also want to note that I thought Goff struggled a bit with Waters due to Waters’ size. Waters is 6’5” which is freaking massive for welterweight, with a 77-inch reach. Goff is only 5’10” tall with a 72-inch reach. However, Ko is also 5’10” with a 71-inch reach.
I think the general dynamic is pretty clear here. Ko is going to fight more technically from the outside, and he carries more power. He probably will land on Goff and might be able to hurt him. He’ll clearly have success optically and can land some big shots.
Goff fights at a much higher pace though, and I think is more comfortable in brawls. I don’t really think Ko can keep up with the pacing of Goff over three rounds, which gives Goff a very real path to victory.
Goff just needs to pressure and not let Ko dictate the pacing. Going strike for strike with Ko gives Ko the advantage. If Goff makes it messy, he can land more often and potentially hurt Ko as well. I do think Goff can win by KO, but it’s much less based on pure power, and more based on attrition and Ko’s questionable durability.
Both sides can probably land takedowns but I’m not convinced either can hold the other down.
Goff does come from a wrestling background and I think his takedowns are fine. I’d say in terms of pacing, Goff might be able to mix in takedowns as a swarm, and take the back or land ground-and-pound. But if he can, that’s probably the beginning of the end. I don’t think he can easily take Ko down when he’s fresh.
Likewise, Ko can probably take Goff down but I’d bet on Goff scrambling back up. If either man gets significant top time here, I’d boost their win equity heavily.
This is a great fight and I don’t think there’s a clear answer as to who wins. I want Goff to win and I trust in his pacing a bit more than anything I trust with Ko. But Ko is more technical and powerful than Goff, and probably will be able to land shots of his own.
I’ll take Goff to win another fun war with Ko having moments of success as well.
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On DraftKings,
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Morales by TKO, RD 3 (Confidence=Medium)
MarQuel Mederos vs. Bolaji Oki
Fight Odds: Oki -168, Mederos +145
Odds to Finish: +125
DraftKings Salaries: Oki 8.9k, Mederos 7.3k
Weight Class: 155
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
MarQuel Mederos is a Contender Series alum from the 2023 season and will be getting a quick turnaround after edging out a split decision over Austin Hubbard back in March – he’s 2-0 in the UFC and 10-1 as a pro. Bolaji Oki’s a fellow Contender Series alum from the 2023 season and also entering his 3rd UFC outing. He was scheduled to face Al-Selwady back in February but pulled out of that fight – he’s 1-1 in the UFC and 9-2 as a pro.
The striking component:
I’m unsure of Mederos’ official background but he originally came out of the Factory X camp in Colorado which shows in his striking style.
He’ll use a lot of stance switching, angle cutting, blitz boxing and is a proactive kicker — a semi similar style to fellow former teammates in Chris Gutierrez, Jonathan Martinez and Yusuff Zalal – he’s now down at the MMA LAB in Arizona.
However, he’s not as outside based as those guys and does like to play within the lip of the pocket where he’s shown consistent volume patterns and some power to boot, with six of his 10 pro wins coming via KO/TKO. I still don’t fancy him as this big “one shot” guy per say though and view him as more of an attritional guy who can pick up on reads and break guys down.
Although, we did see him blast Isakov on the Contender Series with a really well-timed knee off a TDA from the Russian – knees are an additional constant with the Factory X guys. But despite his movement patterns and footwork, I still have some issues with his defense as he keeps a pretty loose guard, so he is available to timed counter shots or straights.
We saw Quinones have a lot of success with his left hand on Mederos in the debut – the distance strike counts were essentially evens and Mederos was the guy pushing forward most of the time, but Quinones outlanded him to the head 41 to 28. It was a close fight but I thought Quinones landed the better shots and deserved the nod there despite a unanimous final result in favor of Mederos.
Most recently, there wasn’t a ton of distance time in the Hubbard fight but Mederos outlanded him there 32-22 and 44-26 on significant strikes – Mederos was a slight step ahead in round one and edged round three landing the bigger shots – another greasy close fight for him though.
He’s never been significantly hurt or KO’d but I have seen him get tagged on more than one occasion.
Overall, Mederos is a good rhythmic striker with decent footwork and volume, but I figure he’ll have some issues at a UFC level with more adept counter strikers with additional footwork, as he can still leave his head the center line when coming in and isn’t as effective when put on the back foot.
Oki comes from a kickboxing background and is now in his 8th year as a pro MMA fighter.
Ironically, he’s not the biggest kicker in the world and prefers his hands and knees as primary weapons. He works in a more methodical, stalking based nature looking to control the center and lead the dance on his opponents.
So, he’s not a volume machine at distance per say but picks his shots well and will start to unload on opponents he has hurt.
I’d say his two main core competencies are his hand speed and his ability to find the liver with both punches and knees as I’ve seen him put multiple guys down targeting the body.
Defensively, he does a good job of getting his hands up on original exchanges and generally keeping guys on the end of his punches. But he will drop his hands at the end of combos and can be susceptible within the pocket when more phone booth types of exchanges happen.
However, he’s worn any damage well to date and has been a finisher with five of his nine pro wins coming via KO. It does need to be noted that he hasn’t fought a very strong strength of schedule overall, but he beat a credentialled kickboxer in Dylan Salvador on Contender Series, which was an impressive showing to me, Cuamba isn’t a slouch and he was winning the striking exchanges most recently against Duncan.
How it plays out: Off the top, both guys stand 5’10” so not much to note there but Oki will realize a 4” reach advantage. The striking dynamic is somewhat interesting because both guys have aspects of their games that can give issues to the other. The pros for Mederos come in the way of footwork as the more mobile fighter with probably a better work rate and kicking game. The pros for Oki come in length, raw KO power, optics, straight shots and body work. Neither guy has been KO’d before so it’s more of an extrapolation opinion but I also think Oki’s got better hardware. So, while there is a realistic chance that Mederos is able to outmaneuver Oki, I still don’t like how he looks when he’s cut off. I ultimately favor Oki because I feel he can be commensurate on volume even if he’s down on the numbers, but also land the harder shots and have more critical hit/big moment upside.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Mederos is a recently crowned BJJ purple belt but reps no pro wins via submission as a guy that generally likes to stand and strike.
However, we did see him take a stronger wrestling approach in his fight against Murphy who was a taller fighter that got his respect on the feet. He was able to land multiple TDs throughout the fight and kind of grind the guy away. But he did lose position at one time in the 2nd round to where he got his back taken and wasn’t able to work out of the position – he did fight hands well though.
He shot five times on Quinones in his debut but got stuffed on all attempts – he did accrue a healthy amount of cage minutes though, despite not getting off much.
Outside of that, he’s shown pretty strong TDD specifically on the Contender Series where Isakov did control him from the body lock but couldn’t ground Mederos – he’s stuffed shots in multiple other fights as well against base wrestlers regionally.
However, despite Hubbard only going 2/9 against him last time out, he backpacked Mederos for nearly the entire 2nd round and was outwrestling Mederos through the early portions of round three before losing position.
Overall, for a guy that prefers to strike, he appears to be competent on the ground, but I would like a larger sample.
I’m unsure of Oki’s floor background and we haven’t seen a ton of him on the ground in his career.
His 1st pro loss did come via wrestling though back in 2018 where he was taken down 3-4 times and controlled for roughly 5-6 minutes which served as the difference maker there.
However, it does appear that he’s evolved his TDD since that fight as he’s shown a decent sprawl and the ability to dig underhooks. He’s still given up a few TDs but has been able to work back up to the feet in shorter order/avoid being flattened.
However, he ultimately succumbed to a guillotine last time out against Duncan despite getting out of the original attempt – Duncan recently guillotined Vucenic as well so it’s not something that’s aging as poorly as it maybe did at the time.
Offensively, he’s mixed takedowns into a handful of fights but had the most success against Melikyan in his last regional decision win, landing 4-5 TDs.
However, he’s really only gone to it when he starts eating more shots or becomes more labored – it’s hard to project him to come out and shoot TDs in volume – he shot a few most recently against Duncan though and caught a kick versus Cuamba.
Oki has one submission win via guillotine as well where the opponent tried to reshoot on him, but he snagged the neck up quickly. Outside of that, we haven’t seen much of Oki’s jiu-jitsu on display.
Overall, with Oki being a base kickboxer, I’d assume the floor is where his primary struggles will come in the UFC when facing better ground fighters but as noted, it does appear to be something he’s worked on over the years and has some offensive upside as well.
How it plays out: The ground’s a bit tricky to analyze in the sense that outside of a few instances in individual fights, neither have really shown to be willing wrestlers. I also think both guys’ TDD in a vacuum is generally solid although Mederos giving up the ground time he did in the last outing against Hubbard was somewhat concerning. I largely think we’ll get a striking affair here but I may give Mederos a little more upside just in the sense that he’s probably a bit further along in the jiu-jitsu realm – he still has no pro wins via sub though.
This is a pretty well matched fight in my opinion. As noted, I see where both guys can realize success in the fight but I do side more with Oki for the striking reasons I listed above in that part of the breakdown. I just feel Mederos is pretty fortunate to be 2-0 in the UFC as there’s a close parallel universe where he’s actually 0-2 in the UFC. If the fight hits the scorecards, it’s probably close but I give Oki more finish and big moment upside so he’s my pick to win.
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Brett’s Notes: Despite a 10-1 pro record and back-to-back victories to start his UFC career, MarQuel Mederos only looks like a fringe UFC talent to me and it seems like the market agrees.
He pulled off an ultra-close split decision over Austin Hubbard where Mederos only landed 44 significant strikes, and prior to that he barely edged out a decision over Landon Quinones while landing 60 significant strikes.
That lack of effective offense is going to be an issue for me when projecting his fights. He’s currently landing 3.75 sig. strikes per minute and doesn’t seem to have the capability to run away with rounds. He has shown a lot of power on the regional scene, earning six wins by TKO, but I don’t view him as a major power threat at the UFC level.
Mederos does move pretty well and has been able to control exchanges, where he’s only absorbing 2.61 sig. strikes per minute with a 61 percent defensive rate. He seems pretty durable as well. I like the fact that he can mix in leg strikes and he’s landed 14 and 16 leg kicks in his two UFC fights thus far.
As a wrestler, I don’t see Mederos having much success at this level. He’s already 0/6 on takedowns through two fights, and he has no submissions on his record. He’s a BJJ purple belt and showed adequate defense when defending the RNC against Hubbard, but he still ultimately got put in that position which is moderately concerning.
I don’t think Mederos will be easy to take down and hold down, and that may allow him to continue to get stand-up fights where he’s got a real shot to win minutes. But his lack of pacing/power at the UFC level probably keeps him in competitive fights and I just don’t see much upside in his game at the moment.
Bolaji Oki is coming off a quick guillotine loss to Chris Duncan, and he won a competitive decision over Timmy Cuamba in his UFC debut.
He is a physical and powerful fighter, and I would generally classify him as an aggressive striker, though he’s quite capable of striking on the counter too. He fights well with his lead hand, and is a capable kicker as well as a boxer.
From a macro standpoint though, Oki seems somewhat dependent on damage. He’s not an evasive, high-volume striker and the bulk of his success will come from hurting opponents.
There also aren’t many layers to his game. He’s not a great wrestler and that’s been more of a liability for him defensively than anything else.
From a metrics standpoint, it’s notable that both Oki and Mederos are absorbing strikes at a very low rate, albeit in a small sample. Both are absorbing about 2.6 per minute and both are defending strikes north of 60 percent. Neither man has been knocked out before.
It definitely makes me nervous that we’re going to get a more cautious fight here than we might like. While Oki can be aggressive, and can throw bombs, Mederos will probably want to play an evasive game. Oki may also not want to charge at Mederos in this spot.
Oki controls the center of the Octagon more and I still do expect him to be the aggressor in this fight. He also hits harder and probably will have the optics advantage. I’m not sure he’s going to run away with volume and there’s a lot of variance in big moments.
It just feels like a tougher matchup for Mederos in that he’ll have to avoid those big moments to win. He’ll need to land a bunch of leg kicks, and make Oki swing and miss. We’ve seen Oki play a counter striking role as well which could give him options if Mederos tries to be the aggressor.
I don’t think either fighter will have much ground success. While Oki has landed a couple of takedowns in his recent fights, I think Mederos is likely the better sub grappler and his takedown defense should hold up. He may even have the wrestling advantage over Oki but I don’t respect his takedowns enough to believe he can be impactful with them.
Given the dynamic, I would guess we get a semi-cautious stand-up fight out of both sides, and one that probably extends unless someone lands a big, random shot.
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On DraftKings, I am extremely nervous about the pacing of this matchup so I mostly consider it a boom or bust one which will largely make me shy away.
Oki is priced up to 8.9k and he needs a knockout. He scored 62 points in his only UFC win which came by decision, and his ITD line isn’t particularly strong here at +225.
I do think he’s powerful though, and I’m sort of afraid to write off Oki as a tournament option. My bigger fear is on the Mederos side who I’m afraid will evade and disengage, just leading to a lack of exchanges.
So I can’t project Oki for much total offense which is ultimately why I view him as needing an early KO to contend for the optimal. At 8.9k, I’m probably not going to get there often.
However, I do think he’ll be somewhat low owned compared to others on this slate. Most will just want to pay up for Reese or Blanchfield at this point, which means Oki could get squeezed at this price tag. I actually don’t mind him as a place to be a bit unique.
The most likely outcomes are an extended fight though in which case, I am doubting Oki reaches a ceiling.
Mederos may even be preferred at 7.3k as he’s a cheap fighter with some win equity on paper, who shouldn’t be too popular. He’s also coming off ugly scoring wins at 64 and 58 points, which I think will scare the public off.
He’s priced between Barber and Lopes though who I both expect to get more ownership, though Mederos’ odds are tightening which could mean some additional attention. Mederos is still only +375 to win ITD which isn’t very strong.
Essentially, my fear is that Mederos doesn’t have much upside. He might win and score 60. Is that good enough? It depends on if other dogs win.
I don’t mind Mederos as a mix-in target as he has some wrestling equity and some round-winning equity, but it’s hard to be excited about him in this matchup and it’s hard to be excited about his ceiling. I will likely end up relatively light in general.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Oki by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)